India no longer world's fastest-growing economy!

[FearlessRoar]

Pakistan should have been at this stage today, but we have fallen into decline, and India has reached new heights.

 

[JaDed]

Norway was needed .

Pakistan should have been at this stage today, but we have fallen into decline, and India has reached new heights.

Considering how Pakistan was in 60s it should have been way ahead actually.

 

[Red-Indian]

Norway was needed .

Considering how Pakistan was in 60s it should have been way ahead actually.

Yep take my theory of US aid and support being a key factor in growth. Pakistan had plenty of it in the 60s and 70s. Used right, it could've been way ahead economically.

I know folks on here will say it was in a sensitive position geographically. So was South Korea - neighboring two of the US's opponents in USSR & China plus right next to a deadly enemy in North Korea. Even so, look at where they reached.

Pakistan missed huge opportunities in those years due to a mix of terrible government (the military dictators) and misplaced priorities. Now the job is a lot harder because the boost that was available from aid(not loans) is gone. It's not impossible but a lot harder.

 

[JaDed]

Yep take my theory of US aid and support being a key factor in growth. Pakistan had plenty of it in the 60s and 70s. Used right, it could've been way ahead economically.

I know folks on here will say it was in a sensitive position geographically. So was South Korea - neighboring two of the US's opponents in USSR & China plus right next to a deadly enemy in North Korea. Even so, look at where they reached.

Pakistan missed huge opportunities in those years due to a mix of terrible government (the military dictators) and misplaced priorities. Now the job is a lot harder because the boost that was available from aid(not loans) is gone. It's not impossible but a lot harder.

India missed an opportunity too, during 1960s .. Shastriji was about to bring reforms as well.
China has documented this as well how India screwed up in 1960s

 

[Red-Indian]

India has signed a free-trade agreement (FTA) with a group of four European countries that are not members of the European Union.

The deal with the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) will see investments in India of $100bn (£77.8bn), the country's trade minister says.

The EFTA is made up of Norway, Switzerland, Iceland and Liechtenstein.

The announcement comes as the UK and India have been holding negotiations over an FTA for the last two years.

"This landmark pact underlines our commitment to boosting economic progress and creating opportunities for our youth," Prime Minister Narendra Modi said in a statement.

"The times ahead will bring more prosperity and mutual growth as we strengthen our bonds with EFTA nations," he added.

The agreement comes after almost 16 years of negotiations. Under this deal, India will lift most import tariffs on industrial goods from the four countries in return for investments over 15 years.

The investments are expected to be made across a range of industries, including pharmaceuticals, machinery and manufacturing.

"The agreement enhances market access and simplifies customs procedures making it easier for Indian and EFTA businesses to expand their operations in the respective markets," the EFTA said in a statement.

India and the four EFTA nations now need to ratify the agreement before it can take effect, with Switzerland planning to do so by next year.

India is due to hold general elections this year as Mr Modi seeks a record third term in office.

In the last two years, India has signed trade deals with Australia and the United Arab Emirates.

Last week, the UK's trade minister Kemi Badenoch suggested that it was possible that Britain could sign a free trade deal before India held its elections but said it would be "challenging".

"I suspect that that is not necessarily going to be the case because I don't want to use any election as a deadline," she added.

India signs $100bn free trade deal with four European nations

The UK and India have been holding negotiations over a free trade agreement for the last two years.

www.bbc.com

These deals should definitely get a lot easier now. Whether it's fully mature yet or not, the positive press around securing access to India's markets with lower import tariffs will make governments willing to give up much bigger concessions. In the short term, India will benefit much more from this deal than the EFTA countries since it's not like massive import floodgates will open right away. India's market is not big enough yet for a lot of the kind of stuff these guys export - wines, cheeses, Swiss watches etc. The benefits to them will only come over the longer term.

Also this will now increase pressure on the likes of the UK to strike their own deal since the press will make it seem like they're missing out. If we're smart, we should be able to secure major concessions.

 

[FearlessRoar]

India's central bank is stepping up its fight against "exuberance" in retail lending, targeting new areas including mortgage-linked "top-up" loans, on concern about rising risks to the financial system, a dozen sources said.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is tightening its supervision of the industry and nudging individual lenders to rein in credit in areas where it sees increased risks, although it has not taken any formal enforcement action, the sources with direct knowledge of the process told Reuters.

The RBI has taken a string of measures over the past six months to rein in some retail lending by banks and non-bank financial firms, and publicly warned them against "all forms of exuberance".

But the new scrutiny, essentially a shot across the bow for financial firms, marks a change for the central bank, which as recently as September said India's credit expansion did not point to building systemic stress.

"RBI is following a four-step approach on supervision now - monitor, warn, penalise and then act," one source said. "They want to give entities a chance to course-correct based on public or specific warnings, but also act when warranted."

The RBI typically uses moral suasion - speeches, calls to bank executives, individual meetings - as initial steps to prod banks, before considering more assertive enforcement.

In addition to the mortgage top-ups, the RBI is cautioning lenders about the risks of algorithm-based credit models and nudging a few institutions to slow co-lending, the sources said.

DON'T WAIT FOR THE HOUSE TO CATCH FIRE​

The sources - including people familiar with central bank thinking, bankers and others in the industry - asked not to be named given the sensitivity of the matter. The RBI did not respond to an email seeking comment.

"We do not wait for the house to catch fire and then act," RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said in December when asked about tougher rules the bank had announced for personal loans.

The central bank aims to ensure risks to the system do not escalate amid global economic uncertainty, analysts say.

"The RBI is also setting out regulatory expectations from the industry through its recent supervisory actions, which can act as a guidance for the entire sector," said Anil Gupta, senior vice president and co-group head of financial-sector ratings at ICRA.

Credit extended by India's banks has been rising about 16% annually, more than double the economy's scorching 7.6% forecast growth for the financial year ending this month, despite 2.5 percentage points of RBI interest-rate hikes over the past two years.

The central bank in November raised risk weights on personal loans, credit cards and bank credit to non-banking firms on signs of above-trend growth in those segments.

It has taken action against a two non-bank firms in the recent past, one for inadequate loan-related due diligence and the other for deficiencies in providing loans towards public issue subscriptions.

Banks' lending margins are expected to hold up this quarter, but the impact of the RBI's credit curbs are likely to be more pronounced in the coming three months, banking sources say.

'SOURCE OF RISK'​

The RBI is now closely monitoring mortgage top-ups. They are meant to fund home improvements or additions, but banks are advertising them for expenses such as weddings, vacations and business expansions.

"One can take a top-up of a home loan and start investing the share market or use it for consumption purpose," said Prashant Kumar, managing director and CEO at Yes Bank, a commercial lender. "That could potentially be a source of risk in terms of repayment."

Fintech and banking sources say the RBI has asked banks to conduct rigorous audits on algorithm-based lending models, which use indicators from cash-flows to home address to generate nearly instantaneous approvals for personal loans.

Central bank officials have asked multiple algo-based loan providers to ensure their models were "properly tested and validated", said a senior executive in the risk division of a private bank.

The RBI has urged some shadow banks and small finance banks to limit to 20% the growth of loans made through co-lending agreements, which allow banks to jointly lend to individuals to spread the credit risk, another source said.

Unsecured personal loans were up 21% at the end of January from a year earlier, central bank data shows.

https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-cenbank-widens-scrutiny-credit-exuberance-sources-say-2024-03-15/?taid=65f45ca0bb9a8e0001c70b2d&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

 

[FearlessRoar]

It is alarming because excessive retail lending, particularly in areas like mortgage top-ups and algorithm-based credit models, can lead to increased risks to the financial system of India. If not properly managed by Indian government, such practices can result in defaults, financial instability, and potential economic downturns.

 

[FearlessRoar]

INR: Indian rupee hits record low

The Indian rupee (INR) fell to a record low against the US dollar (USD) on Friday, pressured by a drop in the offshore Chinese yuan and strong local dollar demand close to the end of the session, traders said.

The Indian rupee ended at 83.4250 against the dollar – its lowest closing level on record – down 0.3% from its close at 83.1475 on Thursday.

The rupee hit an all-time low of 83.43 near the end of the session and fell 0.7% this week, the steepest decline in seven months.

While the weakness in the yuan was pressuring the rupee since the start of the session, aggressive dollar buying in the final few minutes drove it past previous lows, the head of treasury at a mid-sized private bank said.

A lack of substantial dollar inflows and a rise in the dollar index also hurt the rupee, traders said.

The dollar index was up 0.4% at 104.39 after hitting a month’s high earlier in the session.

Asian currencies fell, with the Korean won leading losses, down by 1.2%. The offshore Chinese yuan dropped to its weakest level since November.

The yuan “weakness reflects increased jitters over geopolitical risks that have seemingly resurfaced”, DBS Bank said in a note.

An “artificial dollar scarcity” in the market, reflected in the depressed overnight dollar-rupee swap rate, also contributed to the rupee’s losses, a trader at a foreign bank said.

While the Reserve Bank of India had likely sold dollars earlier in the session near 83.38-83.39 levels, it appeared the central bank was absent towards the end of the session, traders said.

The closing days of March are likely to be “critical” for the rupee after Friday’s price action, Abhilash Koikkara, head of foreign exchange and rates at Nuvama Professional Clients Group, said.

If the Indian rupee continues to hover near record lows over the next few days, the bias on the unit is likely to turn negative, Koikkara said.

INR: Indian rupee hits record low

The Indian rupee (INR) fell to a record low against the US dollar (USD) on Friday, pressured by a drop in the offshore Chinese yuan and strong local

arynews.tv

 

[FearlessRoar]

In a dictatorship, the economy tends to experience a downfall.

 

[Hitman]

In a dictatorship, the economy tends to experience a downfall.

And yet India's forex reserves have grown from $292 billion (2013) to $642.5 billion (2024) under dictatorship?

 

[JaDed]

In a dictatorship, the economy tends to experience a downfall.

Can you explain where the downfall is? Please paste the article where our GDP numbers or foreign reserves are down?

 

[sweep_shot]

Can you explain where the downfall is? Please paste the article where our GDP numbers or foreign reserves are down?

Did you check post #168? What about #166?

 

[SportsWarrior]

Did you check post #168? What about #166?

lol a marginal low in exchange rate now is a downfall of an economy. In last two years INR has lots 12% against USD, similar to Yuan which has lost around 13%. Just about every currency has lost against USD as American economy has been strong for a while now. Just so you know Asian tiger Taka has lost 32% and has gone to IMF with a begging bowl. BD is also struggling with Forex reserves and limiting imports while India has no such issues. If this is Indian downfall what about south Asian tiger economy? probably more of the same in BD, laundering of inflation as growth.

 

[JaDed]

Did you check post #168? What about #166?

Maybe you should read them again if you think those are economic issues, please tell me how do they affect GDP and foreign reserves(ability to repay loan)?

 

[JaDed]

I can see a post tomorrow if India loses 1 Billion in reserves and no post next time when it adds 10 billion lol

India has issues but none coz Modi’s economic policy, this is the richest India has been in its history.

India’s issues are more with educated unemployment..

 

[cricketjoshila]

In a dictatorship, the economy tends to experience a downfall.

Marginal fall in INR is downfall?

Lol

 

[cricketjoshila]

I can see a post tomorrow if India loses 1 Billion in reserves and no post next time when it adds 10 billion lol

India has issues but none coz Modi’s economic policy, this is the richest India has been in its history.

India’s issues are more with educated unemployment..

And you will see the same 1-2 posters bait Indians and then slip away quietly when they are rebutted.

Its the same person in the

Sanga vs SRT thread
LSG visit to Ram Mandir thread
This thread.

Its a pattern.

 

[FearlessRoar]

In a dictatorship, the economy tends to experience a downfall.

INR: Indian Rupee falls to record low

The Indian rupee (INR) hit a record low on Wednesday on aggressive dollar (USD) bids by local oil companies, importers and equity-related outflows, while likely central bank intervention capped losses, traders said.

The Indian rupee closed at 83.3725 against the U.S. dollar, down 0.1% compared with its close at 83.28 in the previous session. The currency fell to an all-time low of 83.45 in the closing minutes of the session.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) stepped in and sold dollars via at least three state-run banks, preventing further losses, a trader at a foreign bank said.

With heavy dollar demand towards the end of the session, offers thinned after the rupee breached 83.40, pushing the currency past its previous low of 83.43 hit on Friday, a foreign exchange trader at a private bank said.

The RBI was likely active in the non-deliverable forwards (NDF) market to prevent a further depreciation after close of the domestic trading session, two senior traders at state-run banks said.

The Indian rupee had extended its decline in the NDF market on Friday.

Weakness in the offshore Chinese yuan and the Japanese yen also weighed.

The yen fell to a 34-year low, prompting an intervention warning from Japan’s finance minister.

The dollar index was little changed at 104.3 while U.S. bond yields were largely steady in Asia trading.

Continued weakness in Asian peers is likely to keep pressuring the rupee but the “proportion of decline could be lower on the back of RBI’s intervention to defend the rupee,” Dilip Parmar, a foreign exchange research analyst at HDFC Securities said.

Parmar expects the rupee to weaken to 83.50-83.70 levels in the near term if the pressure persists.

Markets await remarks from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller later in the day for cues on the Fed’s thinking about rate cuts.

INR: Indian Rupee falls to record low

The Indian rupee (INR) hit a record low on Wednesday on aggressive dollar (USD) bids by local oil companies, importers and equity-related outflows, while

arynews.tv

 

[JaDed]

Lol..USD is getting stronger. I just smiled seeing the above post

this is why congress fans in India can’t argue as well and I thought BJP fans are silly.

=================================================================

EMERGING MARKETS-Asian currencies at multi-month lows as dollar steadies; stocks mixed​

Several currencies in emerging Asia extended losses on Wednesday to hit multi-month lows, while stocks were broadly mixed, as the greenback gained momentum following strong U.S. economic data.

The South Korean won KRW=KFTC, one of the worst performers among Asian currencies for the year to date, slipped 0.6% to its lowest since Nov. 1. The Taiwanese dollar TWD=TP fell 0.3%, hitting its lowest level since Nov. 16.

Indonesia's rupiah IDR= lost 0.4%, dropping to its lowest in nearly five months.

The U.S. dollar, which measures the strength of the greenback against six major currencies, appreciated 0.1% to 104.360 on the back of stronger-than-expected orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods and concerns that hot inflation numbers could cause a rethink in the Federal Reserve's rate-cut outlook.

The Fed's preferred inflation indicator, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), and public comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell are due on Friday. The index is expected to have risen 0.4% in the last month.FEDWATCH

"The Fed's decision to uphold three rate cuts in the dot plot for 2024 seemed to contradict the prevailing economic indicators, notably the above-forecast inflation data for January and February," said Luca Santos, currency analyst at ACY Securities.

The Hong Kong's Hang Seng .HSI and mainland Chinese blue chips .CSI300 lost 0.8% and 0.4% respectively, reversing gains from the previous session.

The stronger dollar had China's yuan CNY=CFXS down 0.2% at 7.2276 per dollar and close to a four-month low, even after the central bank signalled support with a firm setting of its daily trading band.

The yuan's weakness, which reflects sluggish economic growth in the world's second-largest economy, has "led to some softness in regional currencies," Saktiandi Supaat, head of FX research at Maybank said.

Singapore's shares index .STI, among the worst performers in Asia markets so far this year, rose as much as 0.9%, a day after recording a sharp jump in industrial production for February. The index was at its highest level since Sept. 19.

"Overall these numbers are in line with the regional recovery in exports and manufacturing we see across Asia, including out of Korea and Taiwan," MUFG analysts said in a note to clients.

Stocks in Malaysia .KLSE and Indonesia .JKSE dipped 0.3% each, while Thailand's .SETI and Taiwan's .TWII benchmark indexes advanced 0.4% each.

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/emerging-markets-asian-currencies-at-multi-month-lows-as-dollar-steadies-stocks-mixed

 

[Nikhil_cric]

Maybe but Modi himself was railing against the Congress for the devaluing rupee back in 2013. And back then, it was around 63.

 

[JaDed]

Maybe but Modi himself was railing against the Congress for the devaluing rupee back in 2013. And back then, it was around 63.

That is true and that is a genuine critique due to what Modi promised, I remember stupid posts like bringing back black money would make the rupee dollar to 15-30 lol.

My response is only to poster above saying BJP is causing economic issues, which isn’t true as this is the best Indian economy stability and forex wise.

 

[SportsWarrior]

Maybe but Modi himself was railing against the Congress for the devaluing rupee back in 2013. And back then, it was around 63.

That is political rhetoric. How can you INR gain when India’s historical inflation is 6 and US is around 2.5? Everyone knows this. More importantly US has been having a very strong economic recovery than just about anyone else in the world. Compared to its neighbors and other peers Indian INR devaluation is pretty average and even less. Yuan had similar devaluation and it is heavily manipulated, Asian tiger Taka has had more than twice as much as INR did. Moreover in any difficult economic conditions money will always flo towards USD. It is just an economic reality. As far as currencies are considered USD will remain king.

 

[JaDed]

Stellar returns: Blackstone to invest $17 billion more in India

Blackstone plans $17 billion private equity investments in India, focusing on growth equity, infrastructure, and financial services.

www.thehindubusinessline.com

Stellar returns: Blackstone to invest $17 billion more in India​

“India has really been a leader for us in terms of performance. In fact, in private equity, our highest return geographically has been in India. We’ve done incredibly well in real estate also,” Gray said. It will be roughly investing $2 billion in India annually.

“Now what I do think is changing is, India is clearly becoming a place more investors are enthusiastic about. India has become a place where more and more global investors are focussed. And it’s a whole combination of factors. But it feels to me like the momentum is building and not slowing,” Gray said, expressing the wish they had done more in India.

 

[Mockingbird]

India clearly is the new China. I work for an International Asset Management Fund here in New York and all I am hearing these days is ‘India this & India that’. Nobody is talking about China anymore. With Trump slated to come in, market is anticipating even further deterioration in US-China relationship which will affect investing as well.

An interesting note - in my 15 years of international investments I have not come across a single US company even remotely interested in investing in Pakistan. As a CEO of a company who previously had exposure put it, anything you invest in a ‘Stan’ country goes down the drain!

 

[Red-Indian]

India clearly is the new China. I work for an International Asset Management Fund here in New York and all I am hearing these days is ‘India this & India that’. Nobody is talking about China anymore. With Trump slated to come in, market is anticipating even further deterioration in US-China relationship which will affect investing as well.

An interesting note - in my 15 years of international investments I have not come across a single US company even remotely interested in investing in Pakistan. As a CEO of a company who previously had exposure put it, anything you invest in a ‘Stan’ country goes down the drain!

Stellar returns: Blackstone to invest $17 billion more in India

Blackstone plans $17 billion private equity investments in India, focusing on growth equity, infrastructure, and financial services.

www.thehindubusinessline.com

Stellar returns: Blackstone to invest $17 billion more in India​

“India has really been a leader for us in terms of performance. In fact, in private equity, our highest return geographically has been in India. We’ve done incredibly well in real estate also,” Gray said. It will be roughly investing $2 billion in India annually.

“Now what I do think is changing is, India is clearly becoming a place more investors are enthusiastic about. India has become a place where more and more global investors are focussed. And it’s a whole combination of factors. But it feels to me like the momentum is building and not slowing,” Gray said, expressing the wish they had done more in India.

Yes and no. While India is definitely the flavour of the month (or even the year) for investments, too many of them are focused on the local market and not enough in the labour intensive manufacturing export industries that will accelerate employment and really kickstart the virtuous cycle. Stuff like Blackstone putting a couple of Billion every year into Venture Capital or Real Estate isn't going to cut it.

The opportunity is really juicy currently with heaps of companies looking to decouple or at the least diversify their supply chains but we're competing with the likes of Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, Phillipines etc. for these investments.

 

[Romali_rotti]

India will never reach it's potential due to the bureaucracy that always plagued and will plague it till the end of time.

However, India will be successful but will always underachieve.

 

[Mockingbird]

Yes and no. While India is definitely the flavour of the month (or even the year) for investments, too many of them are focused on the local market and not enough in the labour intensive manufacturing export industries that will accelerate employment and really kickstart the virtuous cycle. Stuff like Blackstone putting a couple of Billion every year into Venture Capital or Real Estate isn't going to cut it.

The opportunity is really juicy currently with heaps of companies looking to decouple or at the least diversify their supply chains but we're competing with the likes of Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, Phillipines etc. for these investments.

Yes and no. While India is definitely the flavour of the month (or even the year) for investments, too many of them are focused on the local market and not enough in the labour intensive manufacturing export industries that will accelerate employment and really kickstart the virtuous cycle. Stuff like Blackstone putting a couple of Billion every year into Venture Capital or Real Estate isn't going to cut it.

The opportunity is really juicy currently with heaps of companies looking to decouple or at the least diversify their supply chains but we're competing with the likes of Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, Phillipines etc. for these investments.

It’s the govt or the local industries job to invest in labor intensive manufacturing, not the private investors who tend to look for a quick return on investment.

 

[JaDed]

Hard to beat Chinese they are really really smart, they can code very easily what we do it’s just about the bigger picture of a product which is were they lose to West, Skorea , Taiwan and Japan.

They will definitely get there in 10 years, lets not forget Chinese empire was always very tech savvy and had thriving economy centuries.

 

[SportsWarrior]

While countries around are running to IMF to get relief, India's forex reserves keeps growing

----------------------------

India's foreign exchange reserves (INFXR=ECI), opens new tab rose for a sixth straight week to hit a lifetime high of $645.58 billion as of Mar. 29, data from the central bank showed on Friday.

The reserves rose by $2.95 billion in the reporting week, after having risen by a total of $26.5 billion in the previous five weeks.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) intervenes in the foreign exchange market to curb excess volatility in the rupee.

Changes in foreign currency assets are caused by the RBI's intervention as well as the appreciation or depreciation of foreign assets held in the reserves.

Foreign exchange reserves also include India's reserve tranche position in the International Monetary Fund.

Despite India's strong growth and inflows into equity and debt markets, the central bank has been absorbing inflows to build reserves.

"It is our prime focus to build a strong umbrella, a strong buffer in the form of a substantial quantum of forex reserves which will help us when the cycle turns or when it rains heavily," RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said on Friday.

In the week that the foreign exchange data pertains, the rupee had hit a record low of 83.45 against the dollar, but clocked minor weekly gains.

The domestic currency settled at 83.2950 on Friday, up 0.1% this week.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES (in million U.S. dollars)

---------------------------------------------------------

March 29 March 22

2024 2024

---------------------------------------------------------

Foreign currency assets 570,618 568,264

Gold 52,160 51,487

SDRs 18,145 18,219

Reserve Tranche Position 4,660 4,662

----------------------------------------------------------

Total 645,583 642,631

https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indias-foreign-exchange-reserves-rise-sixth-week-record-high-2024-04-05/

There were posters from bangladesh of all the countries doing bangra over a slight dip in INR, while ignoring the fact that their asian tiger economy was looking for cheese from IMF

 

[cricketjoshila]

While countries around are running to IMF to get relief, India's forex reserves keeps growing

----------------------------

India's foreign exchange reserves (INFXR=ECI), opens new tab rose for a sixth straight week to hit a lifetime high of $645.58 billion as of Mar. 29, data from the central bank showed on Friday.

The reserves rose by $2.95 billion in the reporting week, after having risen by a total of $26.5 billion in the previous five weeks.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) intervenes in the foreign exchange market to curb excess volatility in the rupee.

Changes in foreign currency assets are caused by the RBI's intervention as well as the appreciation or depreciation of foreign assets held in the reserves.

Foreign exchange reserves also include India's reserve tranche position in the International Monetary Fund.

Despite India's strong growth and inflows into equity and debt markets, the central bank has been absorbing inflows to build reserves.

"It is our prime focus to build a strong umbrella, a strong buffer in the form of a substantial quantum of forex reserves which will help us when the cycle turns or when it rains heavily," RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said on Friday.

In the week that the foreign exchange data pertains, the rupee had hit a record low of 83.45 against the dollar, but clocked minor weekly gains.

The domestic currency settled at 83.2950 on Friday, up 0.1% this week.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES (in million U.S. dollars)

---------------------------------------------------------

March 29 March 22

2024 2024

---------------------------------------------------------

Foreign currency assets 570,618 568,264

Gold 52,160 51,487

SDRs 18,145 18,219

Reserve Tranche Position 4,660 4,662

----------------------------------------------------------

Total 645,583 642,631

https://www.reuters.com/world/india...erves-rise-sixth-week-record-high-2024-04-05/
There were posters from bangladesh of all the countries doing bangra over a slight dip in INR, while ignoring the fact that their asian tiger economy was looking for cheese from IMF

Bangladesh economy figures doesn't make sense. They talk about a robust economy and burgeoning exports and run to IMF at the slightest trouble.

 

[Nikhil_cric]

Yes and no. While India is definitely the flavour of the month (or even the year) for investments, too many of them are focused on the local market and not enough in the labour intensive manufacturing export industries that will accelerate employment and really kickstart the virtuous cycle. Stuff like Blackstone putting a couple of Billion every year into Venture Capital or Real Estate isn't going to cut it.

The opportunity is really juicy currently with heaps of companies looking to decouple or at the least diversify their supply chains but we're competing with the likes of Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, Phillipines etc. for these investments.

This is what I don't understand. Investing in real estate etc. is not the way forward. For all the hoopla about Make in India etc, why isn't the government doing more to enable labour intensive manufacturing is really surprising

High tech exports are the way to development even if we accept the current models of development . Retail and real estate etc. offer no real growth.

 

[FearlessRoar]

Can India become rich before its population grows old?​

For the past two years, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has pledged to transform India into a high-income, developed country by 2047. India is also on course to become the world's third largest economy in six years, according to several projections.

High-income economies have a per capita Gross National Income - total amount of money earned by a nation's people and businesses - of $13,846 (£10,870) or more, according to the World Bank.

With a per capita income of around $2,400 (£1,885), India is among the lower middle-income countries. For some years now, many economists have been warning that India’s economy could be headed for a “middle income trap”.

This happens when a country stops being able to achieve rapid growth easily and compete with advanced economies.

Economist Ardo Hannson defines it as a situation when countries "seem to get stuck in a trap where your costs are escalating and you lose competitiveness".

A new World Bank report holds out similar fears. At the current growth rate, India will need 75 years to reach a quarter of America's per capita income, World Development Report 2024 says. It also says more than 100 countries – including India, China, Brazil and South Africa - face “serious obstacles” that could hinder their efforts to become high-income countries in the next few decades.

Researchers looked at the numbers from 108 middle-income countries responsible for 40% of the world’s total economic output – and nearly two-thirds of global carbon emissions. They are home to three-quarters of the global population and nearly two-thirds of those in extreme poverty.

They say these countries face greater challenges in escaping the middle-income trap. These include rapidly ageing populations, rising protectionism in advanced economies and the urgent need for an accelerated energy transition.

“The battle for global economic prosperity will be largely won or lost in middle-income countries,” says Indermit Gill, chief economist of the World Bank and one of the study's authors.

“But too many of these countries rely on outmoded strategies to become advanced economies. They depend just on investment for too long - or they switch prematurely to innovation.”

For example, the researchers say, the pace at which businesses can grow is often slow in middle-income countries.

In India, Mexico, and Peru, firms that operate for 40 years typically double in size, while in the US, they grow seven-fold in the same period. This indicates that firms in middle-income countries struggle to grow significantly, but still survive for decades. Consequently, nearly 90% of firms in India, Peru, and Mexico have fewer than five employees, with only a small fraction having 10 or more, the report says.

Mr Gill and his fellow researchers advocate a new approach: these countries need to focus on more investment, infuse new technologies from around the world and grow innovation.

South Korea exemplifies this strategy, the report says.

In 1960, its per capita income was $1,200 - it rose to $33,000 by 2023.

Initially, South Korea boosted public and private investment. In the 1970s, it shifted to an industrial policy that encouraged domestic firms to adopt foreign technology and advanced production methods.

Companies like Samsung responded. Initially a noodle-maker, Samsung began producing TV sets for domestic and regional markets by licensing technologies from Japanese firms.

This success created a demand for skilled professionals. The government increased budgets and set targets for public universities to develop these skills. Today, Samsung is a global innovator and one of the world's largest smartphone manufacturers, the report says.

Countries like Poland and Chile followed similar paths, the report says. Poland boosted productivity by adopting Western European technologies. Chile encouraged technology transfer to drive local innovation, famously adapting Norwegian salmon farming techniques to become a top salmon exporter.

History provides enough clues about an impending middle-income trap. Researchers reveal that as countries grow wealthier, they often hit a "trap" at around 10% of US GDP per capita ($8,000 today), placing them in the middle-income range. That’s roughly in the middle of what the bank classifies as “middle-income” countries.

Since 1990, only 34 middle-income countries have transitioned to high-income status, with over a third benefiting from integration into European Union (EU) or newfound oil reserves.

Economists Raghuram Rajan and Rohit Lamba separately estimate that even at a very respectable per capita income growth rate of 4%, India’s per capita income will reach $10,000 only by 2060, which is lower than China’s level today.

“We must do better. Over the next decade, we will see a possible population dividend, that is rise in the share of our population of working age, before we, like other countries, succumb to ageing,” they write in their new book Breaking The Mould: Reimagining India's Economic Future.

“If we can generate good employment for all our youth, we will accelerate growth and have a shot at becoming comfortably upper middle class before our population starts ageing.”

In other words, the economists wonder, “Can India become rich before it becomes old?"

Can India become rich before its population grows old?

At current rates, India needs 75 years to reach a quarter of US's per capita income, a report says.

www.bbc.com

 

[Bhaijaan]

Can India become rich before its population grows old?​

For the past two years, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has pledged to transform India into a high-income, developed country by 2047. India is also on course to become the world's third largest economy in six years, according to several projections.

High-income economies have a per capita Gross National Income - total amount of money earned by a nation's people and businesses - of $13,846 (£10,870) or more, according to the World Bank.

With a per capita income of around $2,400 (£1,885), India is among the lower middle-income countries. For some years now, many economists have been warning that India’s economy could be headed for a “middle income trap”.

This happens when a country stops being able to achieve rapid growth easily and compete with advanced economies.

Economist Ardo Hannson defines it as a situation when countries "seem to get stuck in a trap where your costs are escalating and you lose competitiveness".

A new World Bank report holds out similar fears. At the current growth rate, India will need 75 years to reach a quarter of America's per capita income, World Development Report 2024 says. It also says more than 100 countries – including India, China, Brazil and South Africa - face “serious obstacles” that could hinder their efforts to become high-income countries in the next few decades.

Researchers looked at the numbers from 108 middle-income countries responsible for 40% of the world’s total economic output – and nearly two-thirds of global carbon emissions. They are home to three-quarters of the global population and nearly two-thirds of those in extreme poverty.

They say these countries face greater challenges in escaping the middle-income trap. These include rapidly ageing populations, rising protectionism in advanced economies and the urgent need for an accelerated energy transition.

“The battle for global economic prosperity will be largely won or lost in middle-income countries,” says Indermit Gill, chief economist of the World Bank and one of the study's authors.

“But too many of these countries rely on outmoded strategies to become advanced economies. They depend just on investment for too long - or they switch prematurely to innovation.”

For example, the researchers say, the pace at which businesses can grow is often slow in middle-income countries.

In India, Mexico, and Peru, firms that operate for 40 years typically double in size, while in the US, they grow seven-fold in the same period. This indicates that firms in middle-income countries struggle to grow significantly, but still survive for decades. Consequently, nearly 90% of firms in India, Peru, and Mexico have fewer than five employees, with only a small fraction having 10 or more, the report says.

Mr Gill and his fellow researchers advocate a new approach: these countries need to focus on more investment, infuse new technologies from around the world and grow innovation.

South Korea exemplifies this strategy, the report says.

In 1960, its per capita income was $1,200 - it rose to $33,000 by 2023.

Initially, South Korea boosted public and private investment. In the 1970s, it shifted to an industrial policy that encouraged domestic firms to adopt foreign technology and advanced production methods.

Companies like Samsung responded. Initially a noodle-maker, Samsung began producing TV sets for domestic and regional markets by licensing technologies from Japanese firms.

This success created a demand for skilled professionals. The government increased budgets and set targets for public universities to develop these skills. Today, Samsung is a global innovator and one of the world's largest smartphone manufacturers, the report says.

Countries like Poland and Chile followed similar paths, the report says. Poland boosted productivity by adopting Western European technologies. Chile encouraged technology transfer to drive local innovation, famously adapting Norwegian salmon farming techniques to become a top salmon exporter.

History provides enough clues about an impending middle-income trap. Researchers reveal that as countries grow wealthier, they often hit a "trap" at around 10% of US GDP per capita ($8,000 today), placing them in the middle-income range. That’s roughly in the middle of what the bank classifies as “middle-income” countries.

Since 1990, only 34 middle-income countries have transitioned to high-income status, with over a third benefiting from integration into European Union (EU) or newfound oil reserves.

Economists Raghuram Rajan and Rohit Lamba separately estimate that even at a very respectable per capita income growth rate of 4%, India’s per capita income will reach $10,000 only by 2060, which is lower than China’s level today.

“We must do better. Over the next decade, we will see a possible population dividend, that is rise in the share of our population of working age, before we, like other countries, succumb to ageing,” they write in their new book Breaking The Mould: Reimagining India's Economic Future.

“If we can generate good employment for all our youth, we will accelerate growth and have a shot at becoming comfortably upper middle class before our population starts ageing.”

In other words, the economists wonder, “Can India become rich before it becomes old?"

Can India become rich before its population grows old?

At current rates, India needs 75 years to reach a quarter of US's per capita income, a report says.

www.bbc.com

Not possible with a 200 million strong unpatriotic minority which is an every day liability and a hurdle to progress.

 

[FearlessRoar]

Rupee Set to Extend Slump to Record Lows on India Rate-Cut Bets​

The Indian rupee is expected to weaken further against the dollar, after hitting a new low Monday, as traders bet on interest-rate cuts amid signs the central bank is loosening its grip on the currency under its new chief.

The Reserve Bank of India will reduce the repurchase rate by 25 basis points Friday, the first easing since the pandemic, a Bloomberg survey of economists showed. That will add to pressure on the currency after US tariffs rattled Asian markets.

The rupee may decline to 88.70 per dollar by the year-end, according to Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. is forecasting a fall to 89.50 by December. It fell as much as 0.8% to 87.29 after markets reopened post Saturday’s federal budget.

“Over the last few months there is a change in RBI’s currency management with a rise in the pace of rupee depreciation,” said Gaura Sen Gupta, chief economist at IDFC FIRST Bank Ltd. “We expect depreciation pressure to persist, given the overvaluation in the rupee and muted capital flows.”

The rupee turned into Asia’s second worst-performing currency this year, after beating most peers last quarter. It has dropped by nearly 3% since Sanjay Malhotra’s appointment as governor in December as he signaled a willingness to allow the local currency move more freely in tandem with peers in the region.

The RBI’s interventions in the foreign exchange market under former governor Shaktikanta Das made it one of the most stable currencies in the world. The RBI steadily built up reserves of over $700 billion and used them to quell volatility.

The Indian unit’s real-effective exchange rate, a gauge of its competitiveness against peers, rose to a record 108.13 in November, before receding a bit last month. Though it still remains in the overvalued territory, the shift in RBI’s policy and an exodus by foreign funds is pushing it toward further weakening.

Overseas investors net sold more than $8 billion from Indian stocks in January due to worries over a slowing economy and weak corporate earnings. Global uncertainty is also adding to the mix as investors trim exposure to emerging markets.

The dollar surged while other currencies dropped after US President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China, signaling the beginning of a new round of global trade war. Indian officials downplayed the impact of the move on the rupee, saying the central bank will continue to care of volatility.

The rupee’s fall to a record low is in line with other markets and it is still “doing better than others because of strong domestic fundamentals,” V Anantha Nageswaran, chief economic adviser in the finance ministry, said in an interview on Bloomberg TV.

Rupee Set to Extend Slump to Record Lows on India Rate-Cut Bets

The Indian rupee is expected to weaken further against the dollar, after hitting a new low Monday, as traders bet on interest-rate cuts amid signs the central bank …

financialpost.com

 

[mazkhan]

Wait till trumpa targest 56 inch chaati with tarrifs