1. First of all, there is absolutely nothing wrong in wanting to know the truth. In such high stakes battle, as they say, truth is the first casuality.
2. It's easy to just look at data that conforms to what we want it to be...but that may or may not be the truth. So having an honest discussion is always the way to go.
3. Based on the statements put out by Pak military and IAF, one thing is clear. One of them is lying. And I want to know who that is.
4. As an Indian, I would rather be defeated than be lied to. Based on my limited knowledge, there aren't instances where our military didn't acknowleged our own martyred soldiers. So if that is indeed the case, then I sure as hell want to find out more about it.
5. One thing which I learnt in this saga is that social media and news channels are mostly liars. Or peddlers of unverified information. Personally, I am not too keen on the Shahaz ud Din thingy. It could be true. It could be false. It's no valid proof on its own. It could act as a circumstantial evidence but even then there's no guarantee it's the truth. Instead what needs to be done is we must focus on official sources and other relevant data (which may or may not be proven for now...but acts as a supporting argument).
6. I am personally glad that the whole image thingy is cleared up. Clarity is always better than ambiguity.
7. Now moving on nto this saga, first of all, fact remains that we found AMRAAM missile in India used in F16s. Immediately one claim that did the rounds was it was sold to Taiwan. It was also shown in Pak news sites.
8. A few days back, Taiwan news site published a report saying that missile was indeed sold to Pakistan.
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3648621
So hopefully we have moved on from the Taiwan angle too.
9. Now as per the defence analyst, AMRAAM can be fitted in both JF17 and F16.
There are a few different data that's coming in which makes this case interesting:
Data 1 (confirmed) - AMRAAM missile.
Data 2 (unconfirmed) - I am hearing reports that IAF picked up electronic signatures that F16s were used. I don't know much about it but this is one thing.
Data 3 (unconfirmed) - Again hearing reports that Abhinandan's locked to the F16 and his last radio message was "R73 selected".
“There is corroborating evidence that an F16 engaged was shot down. It was engaged by our MiG21 Bison fighter,” an officer who did not wish to be named said.
Even in PP on that day, talks of F16 were going on before Abhi's video surfaced. At that time, IAF couldn't have known how all of this would play out.
Data 4 (confirmed) - Pak's goof up in media.
First tweet:
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">In response to PAF strikes this morning as released by MoFA, IAF crossed LOC. PAF shot down two Indian aircrafts inside Pakistani airspace. One of the aircraft fell inside AJ&K while other fell inside IOK. One Indian pilot arrested by troops on ground while two in the area.</p>— Maj Gen Asif Ghafoor (@OfficialDGISPR) <a href="https://twitter.com/OfficialDGISPR/status/1100641491679150080?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 27, 2019</a></blockquote>
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Press conference an hour later
Later in subsequent tweet, he shifts to 1 pilot.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">There is only one pilot under Pakistan Army’s custody. Wing Comd Abhi Nandan is being treated as per norms of military ethics. <a href="https://t.co/8IQ5BPhLj2">pic.twitter.com/8IQ5BPhLj2</a></p>— Maj Gen Asif Ghafoor (@OfficialDGISPR) <a href="https://twitter.com/OfficialDGISPR/status/1100739613486915584?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 27, 2019</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
It goes from 3 to 2 to 1.
https://www.dawn.com/news/1466347
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In quest of truth, one must be willing to accept all kinds of possibilities. I am willing to entertain the thought that Pak shot down Su-30.
A few questions arise:
1. How come there is so much circumstantial evidence for F16 but almost zero circumstantial evidence for Su-30?
there is zero evidence of a f16 loss. None. No wreckage no photos, no 24hr leaks. no azad kashmiri with a smartphone elaks on twitter/fb..none. nada zilch..no funerals or leaks from said funeral..no criticism of the PAF becasue they kept a shaheed hidden nothing. On the other hand we have visual confirmation of the second shot down plane in the aljazeera report that you can find online. ISPR conformed that plane whatever it was landed in IOK. and it was a two seater. so it is eitehr a mirage,a MIG29 or a sukhoi. We know the IAF had to admit they used Sukhois and Mirages..both of which have two seaters in service. Also we know that SU30's give top cover to MIG21's. We know Abhinandan was "looking for targets".That means hew as scanning for interception but was hit by a BVR missile from a jf17. Nobody can dispute this.
2. If Pakistan indeed struck a deal with India to return dead pilots in exchange for de-escalation, why go from 3 pilots to 2 pilots to 1 pilot?
they are dead. The mistake was the ISPR thought abhinandan was the second pilot and they realised later that the pilot about to be lunched and the one who parachuted were one and the same. Fog of war. Locals and the PA on teh scene also reported seeing two chutes from teh second plane..there are eye witnesses. We als have camera footage in the Paf. We have the name of the second pilot who shot down the second plane. Air marshall retd shaihid latif said so on live tv..these guys dont make things like this up.
3. If India indeed got the pilots in a secret deal and the whole operation ended in a fiasco, why would they name F16 and go as far as showing AMRAAM missile? Wouldn't they try to be evasive (which they were on Balakot strikes)?
there are no secret deals. The reason tehy are showing this amraam is to get some sanctions placed on the PAF. The amraam was probably fired but it is a BVR so would have been fired from pakistani territory and there are rumours it brought down the helicopter although shahid latif thinks that was a friendly fire incident which is even worse for the IAF. Eitehr way all that the amraam piece shows is that it hit a target end of..probably the SU30. or mirage.. The PAF will be releasing the footage soon.
4. And why would they take up the issue with USA? When you strike a deal that embarasses you, won't you just play it off and keep quite?
who will take it up? the Pakistanis? no..they have already sent the US a message eyars ago that we will sue all means necessary to defend our airspace. Also teh US will be very keen to get their hands on teh data from teh shot down as all of their main adversaires fly SU30's..they are chomping at the bit to get their hands on the info..they have no doubt our pilots are not shrinking violets and the PAF has alot of respect in USAF circles..
5. And last but not the least, why fit in USA AMRAAM missile with JF17? Is it that necessary to use this one here? Maybe this question can be answered easily but as a complete layman, I dunno so I am curious.
Why not? its one of the best BVR missiles going and we have over 500 but it was probably fired by an f soala. It has good anti jamming capability and from what Abhinandan describes in his description they didnt realise they were being stalked and jammed themselves. I believe that was from teh helicopter kill not the SU kill but thats just me..
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Also by the way (unrelated to this post), did the anti-aircraft gun shoot down our planes or was it the PAF? I dunno. I am curious.
Vacations over and now i have to join my duty and won't be able to login for God knows how many weeks.
