Is Afghanistan doomed to perpetual conflict for generations to come?

[Yossarian]

In my opinion, the Afghan Taliban will never be completely defeated. How can you defeat an insurgency that is embedded in the fabric of large sections of Afghan society?

Every Afghan (Taliban terrorist, or innocent civilian, or "collateral damage" as they call it nowadays) wounded or killed results in more recruits ready to take up arms. These new recruits are more often than not family or clan members of those wounded, maimed or killed, and take up arms in order to 'take revenge', especially considering that the concept of "eye for an eye, tooth for tooth" is embedded in the Afghan culture.

At the same time, for obvious strategic reasons, the USA and it's allies will never allow the Taliban to come into power again and go back to the situation pre-9/11. Since the Afghan Government will not survive even a week without the support of the US and it's allies, it means that the US can never leave.

Even if Afghanistan breaks up and the various ethnic groups (and warlords) try to create their own little fiefdoms, the situation becomes even worse, with Afghanistans neighbours all trying to take chunks of Afghanistan that border their own territories (Iranians to the east, Pakistan to the west, China to the north-east, Russia and the former Soviet states to the north and north-west, leaving a smaller but Taliban infested Afghanistan being fought over between the Taliban and a Kabul based, US supported Afghan government.

Like I said, perpetual conflict.

Discuss.

And please: Don't turn this into yet another another Pakistan v. India ding/dong thread.

 

[Enigma_]

The US does not want to leave Afghanistan because of sooooooo many interests. Long story short, they're not going anywhere.

 

[KingKhanWC]

The US will leave one day even though it has built long term bases in the country. Afghanistan has been invaded on and off for the last 100 years and even many times throughout history. Americans have a military force the world has never seen before but they are not brave fighters, not compared to the Afghans. Eventually the people of America will elect someone who has is anti-war especially when there has been no victory in Afghanistan and body bags keep coming back.

 

[Yossarian]

The US will leave one day even though it has built long term bases in the country. Afghanistan has been invaded on and off for the last 100 years and even many times throughout history. Americans have a military force the world has never seen before but they are not brave fighters, not compared to the Afghans. Eventually the people of America will elect someone who has is anti-war especially when there has been no victory in Afghanistan and body bags keep coming back.

And what happens when they leave? The Afghan government politicians run away to their bolt holes in the west they've already prepared just in case, probably on the same planes as the last of the US soldiers. And then the Taliban gets back in. Do you think the US and it's allies will allow that?

 

[KingKhanWC]

And what happens when they leave? The Afghan government politicians run away to their bolt holes in the west they've already prepared just in case, probably on the same planes as the last of the US soldiers. And then the Taliban gets back in. Do you think the US and it's allies will allow that?

It doesn't have to be the Taliban, well not in it's current form. The Taliban came into existence when the Soviets left there were warlords, militias and groups rampaging throughout the country, committing all sorts of crimes. When they first arrived they bought law and order which many Afghans appreciated but as they gained control and power, their rules were too strict because of their ideology. When the invasion took place after 911, numerous tribes joined forces with them and called themselves the 'Taliban' as a way to say, they are all with the resistance. When the Americans leave , these groups will dispearse and there will be another civil war and nobody knows who will come out on top. It will be a war between group(s) supported by India and those supported by Pakistan. Since Pakistan has more loyal groups and more influential groups they will most likely come out on top. What the name of the victories group will be is anyone's guess but I doubt it will call itself the Taliban as it will want to paint a fresh image.

The US knows full well 911 was not launched from Afghanistan as to this day they have not provided any proof of this. They will try to control some areas by air power, using drones and other new technologies to attack what they may perceive as enemies.

 

[Pakpak]

Their society needs a overhaul too. I saw a recent documentary which had Taliban roaming freely 200 metres infront of an Afghan Army base, well supported by the local population. Whoever was interviewed said they're tired of corruption by the government and get speedy justice from Taliban. Numerous also were very angry and resented the fact that any mortar from an insurgent in their village would get a very indiscriminate response from the Afghan Army, resulting in many civilian losses and you had little kids cursing the Afghan Army, their very people.

The entire nation is a mish-mash of tribal groups, armed and otherwise, separated by various ethnicities and beliefs. Its a massive mess.

 

[boomboomcheema]

The best option IMO would be to divide Afghanistan on the basis of ethnicity.
Then the Tajik part joins Tajikistan
Uzbek part joins Uzbekistan
And Pashtun part joins Pakistan.

There will never be peace in Afghanistan as long as there is a strong tribal and ethnic divide in the country.

 

[Markhor]

Ultimately the solution is for the Afghan Govt and Taliban to enter a powersharing arrangement. Pakistan should use whatever leverage it has to bribe, coax and cajole the Afghan Taliban to accept the Afghan Constitution and strike a deal with the Ghani government.

And the international community should use its leverage over the Afghan Govt, given the economy is very dependent on foreign aid, to agree to such a process.

I did once consider partition or confederation of Afghanistan on ethnic lines but there's too many ethnically mixed provinces, in the North and in Kabul, to be workable as the minorities in these provinces would never accept Pashtun or Uzbek/Tajik rule.

 

[Pakistanian]

I think the solution would be a confederation of Pakistan & Afghanistan like what was proposed over 50 years ago

http://www.qissa-khwani.com/2015/07/bizzare-history-pakistan-afghanistan.html

 

[Adil_94]

afghanistan has always been stunted by its lack of development and inability to form a strong central government. in many ways its a throwback to the pre modern era.

its filled with tribal and ethnic divisions. not to mention religious extremism.

even if the current war ends i dont see long term stability in afghanistan because it is already such a divided country that relies so much on a tribalistif form of governance. it has no strong institutions to keep the country united.

Pakistan at least has the military that prevents its own civil war.

 

[Black Zero]

Afghanistan should be divided on ethnic grounds, and it would be easier to mange small countries.

 

[King-Misbah]

I think the solution would be a confederation of Pakistan & Afghanistan like what was proposed over 50 years ago

http://www.qissa-khwani.com/2015/07/bizzare-history-pakistan-afghanistan.html

No Thanks! That would destabilise Pakistan further and Pakistan will have a massive culture clash!

 

[Yossarian]

Afghanistan should be divided on ethnic grounds, and it would be easier to mange small countries.

Who will 'manage' these new small countries? The one's that won't get absorbed into the states that border them currently that is. And then each of these new small countries, ruled by warlords, will be hacking each other to bits, similar to what the warlords were doing after the soviets left. Until Taliban mark 2, or something equivalent, arrives on the scene and everythings goes back to square one again.

All the posts so far are simply repeating the scenarios set out in the OP.

Basically, Afghanistan is going to remain a quagmire in perpetual conflict for generations to come.
Perfect for the immediate neighbours and external powers to use Afghanistan for their proxy wars and to field test their military hardware,

 

[moghul]

I think the solution would be a confederation of Pakistan & Afghanistan like what was proposed over 50 years ago

http://www.qissa-khwani.com/2015/07/bizzare-history-pakistan-afghanistan.html

This was also proposed by Gen Zia and majority of the Mujahiddin leaders then agreed to that, then Zia was killed, thanks to my dear adapted country.

 

[Yossarian]

I think the solution would be a confederation of Pakistan & Afghanistan like what was proposed over 50 years ago

http://www.qissa-khwani.com/2015/07/bizzare-history-pakistan-afghanistan.html

That's probably the worst of all scenarios. Because instead of creating a tightly fenced and fortified, non-porous border between the two, you'll be removing what little border controls that already exist. Meaning the terrorism, instead of being just confined to TTP activity, would spill over into Pakistan on a full scale.

 

[Slog]

The US will leave one day even though it has built long term bases in the country. Afghanistan has been invaded on and off for the last 100 years and even many times throughout history. Americans have a military force the world has never seen before but they are not brave fighters, not compared to the Afghans. Eventually the people of America will elect someone who has is anti-war especially when there has been no victory in Afghanistan and body bags keep coming back.

its your folly if you believe war will end once the US leaves

Afghans will keep fighting

 

[Yossarian]

its your folly if you believe war will end once the US leaves

Afghans will keep fighting

And eventually drag others back in, especially the states bording Afghanistan, such as China, Russia (via the former Soviet republics), Iran and Pakistan, followed by the USA (and it's allies eg the UK) for strategic reasons. So back to square one.

Perpetual conflict for generations to come, no matter how you look at it and what solutions are proposed.

 

[Slog]

And eventually drag others back in, especially the states bording Afghanistan, such as China, Russia (via the former Soviet republics), Iran and Pakistan, followed by the USA (and it's allies eg the UK) for strategic reasons. So back to square one.

Perpetual conflict for generations to come, no matter how you look at it and what solutions are proposed.

same

i believe its actually in the world's interest that some hegemon (the US namely) keeps itself involved in afghanistan. there is atleast some semblance of order around kabul and major cities

i genuinely think if they left and afghanistan were left to its devices all hell would break loose. eventually it would force neighbors to enter in with proxies

 

[Syed1]

I hope Afghanistan finds a way to achieve stability because otherwise it will keep effecting us and hampering our growth and global image. If in a few decades Pakistan is able to sustain itself economically and Afghanistan is still strife with conflict we should try and absorb it within Pakistan and bring prosperity to their citizens. It will also give Pakistan easy access to energy rich Central Asian Republics.

 

[Yossarian]

I hope Afghanistan finds a way to achieve stability because otherwise it will keep effecting us and hampering our growth and global image. If in a few decades Pakistan is able to sustain itself economically and Afghanistan is still strife with conflict we should try and absorb it within Pakistan and bring prosperity to their citizens. It will also give Pakistan easy access to energy rich Central Asian Republics.

Worst possible thing that could happen to Pakistan. Will turn Pakistan into another Syria and make the current situation in Afghanistan seem like child's play.

That's probably the worst of all scenarios. Because instead of creating a tightly fenced and fortified, non-porous border between the two, you'll be removing what little border controls that already exist. Meaning the terrorism, instead of being just confined to TTP activity, would spill over into Pakistan on a full scale.

 

[Syed1]

Worst possible thing that could happen to Pakistan. Will turn Pakistan into another Syria and make the current situation in Afghanistan seem like child's play.

You are thinking in terms of present day Pakistan and present day Afghanistan, what I suggested in my post was a few decades down the road when Pakistan would have atleast reached the level of South Korea due to the benefits of CPEC and would be better managed administratively and economically to "absorb Afghanistan" within its fold. Obviously not calling for a full scale invasion of the country. It would have to happen if the people of Afghanistan desire it and want to rid themselves of constant instability and warfare.

If not then I'm all for sealing the border and allowing only restricted entry-exit. An unstable Afghanistan will only hurt us.

 

[Cpt. Rishwat]

I hope Afghanistan finds a way to achieve stability because otherwise it will keep effecting us and hampering our growth and global image. If in a few decades Pakistan is able to sustain itself economically and Afghanistan is still strife with conflict we should try and absorb it within Pakistan and bring prosperity to their citizens. It will also give Pakistan easy access to energy rich Central Asian Republics.

It's those same energy rich resources which means the USA and all the other big players will be keeping a foothold in the region. As a result I don't see any prospect for peace in the region, Russia and the US will continue to battle for control through their proxies similar to Syria and Iraq.

 

[Varun]

You are thinking in terms of present day Pakistan and present day Afghanistan, what I suggested in my post was a few decades down the road when Pakistan would have atleast reached the level of South Korea due to the benefits of CPEC and would be better managed administratively and economically to "absorb Afghanistan" within its fold. Obviously not calling for a full scale invasion of the country. It would have to happen if the people of Afghanistan desire it and want to rid themselves of constant instability and warfare.

This is such a loose connection - how will a transport route + ancillaries morph Pakistan into South Korea?

Pakistan has the potential to develop into a far more advanced nation by the 2040s-2050s and if they do, a Made in China highway would have barely had anything to do with it.

 

[Syed1]

This is such a loose connection - how will a transport route + ancillaries morph Pakistan into South Korea?

Pakistan has the potential to develop into a far more advanced nation by the 2040s-2050s and if they do, a Made in China highway would have barely had anything to do with it.

Oh God.. when will you guys realize CPEC is not just highway


We have gone over this several hundred times already.

CPEC is highway, railway, hydro dams, energy infrastructure and industrial zones (where guess what export based industries would be set up)

 

[ManFan]

Its been embedded to fight for generations before, the current generation, and most likely the following ones. Hard to educate yourself when you have to worry about getting shot at or brutalized.

 

[troodon]

The question from me is, do Afghans of various ethnicities see each other as too different from each other?

The good thing going for them is, they have a common religion. But looks like its not enough for them to bond.

How was the situation prior to Islam there? I know Buddhism and some Hinduism existed back then. But were they all fighting back then too?

Education, opportunity and less religion is the only way out of the mess they are in. When people do not see much opportunity, they usually join warlords who pay them some monthly salary. Very difficult situation.

 

[ManFan]

Religion is not the problem. Misinterpretation of religion is.

 

[troodon]

Religion is not the problem. Misinterpretation of religion is.

Problem of misinterpretation comes because religious literate is usually vague. A word can have dozen meanings and anyone can use the word to their advantage.

 

[Leo23]

the only solution for afghanistan is for a non-taliban military dictator to emerge

the civilian govt will never be able to defeat the taliban and as long as their military is weak they cannot do anything about the taliban either

 

[Pakistanian]

The question from me is, do Afghans of various ethnicities see each other as too different from each other?

The good thing going for them is, they have a common religion. But looks like its not enough for them to bond.

How was the situation prior to Islam there? I know Buddhism and some Hinduism existed back then. But were they all fighting back then too?

Education, opportunity and less religion is the only way out of the mess they are in. When people do not see much opportunity, they usually join warlords who pay them some monthly salary. Very difficult situation.

The borders back then weren't the same, the modern borders of Afghanistan were carved by the Russians and British, in fact Afghanistan used to be part of Iran for thousands of years, it was only in 1747 that an Afghan state was established, just 30 years before America became an independent country. That state also included present-day Pakistan.

 

[KingKhanWC]

its your folly if you believe war will end once the US leaves

Afghans will keep fighting

You should have read my other post.

"When the Americans leave , these groups will dispearse and there will be another civil war"