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Misbah-ul-Haq's duration of stay at the wicket in ODIs and its impact on the match result

Self-Bumping your fail is a clever way of avoiding an assault.

Where did I say, that Pakistan has ALWAYS won when Misbah plays less than 24 ball.
Today was not the first time. Was it? See the arrows below.....!!! It has happened before and will happen again.

Key figures are circled. Any comments about that?

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Good luck to Pakistan ... and I hope Pakistan wins the series tonight... regardless of length of Misbah's stay at the wicket....



There are 4 choices...and only one answer....

a) Misbah stays at the wicket for 25 or more balls and Pakistan losses (likely scenario - based on history).
b) Misbah stays at the wicket for 25 or more balls and Pakistan wins (low probability - based on history).
c) Misbah stays at the wicket for 24 or less balls and Pakistan losses (low probability - based on history).
d) Misbah stays at the wicket for 24 or less balls and Pakistan wins (likely scenario - based on history).


What is it going to be???
 
Good luck to Pakistan ... and I hope Pakistan wins the series tonight... regardless of length of Misbah's stay at the wicket....



There are 4 choices...and only one answer....

a) Misbah stays at the wicket for 25 or more balls and Pakistan losses (likely scenario - based on history).
b) Misbah stays at the wicket for 25 or more balls and Pakistan wins (low probability - based on history).
c) Misbah stays at the wicket for 24 or less balls and Pakistan losses (low probability - based on history).
d) Misbah stays at the wicket for 24 or less balls and Pakistan wins (likely scenario - based on history).


What is it going to be???

A and C.

Pakistan loses because of weak team, because they aren't good enough to compete with Aussies.

But interpretation will be...

Misbah batted slow to make us lose

Misbah made wrong fielding plans to make us lose

Afridi as captain woudl have done much better

We need to sack Misbah

We need to change captains

We don't need good players, just need to change captain.

We are amazing team without Misbah

.......

Ad infinitum.
 
A and C.

Pakistan loses because of weak team, because they aren't good enough to compete with Aussies.

But interpretation will be...

Misbah batted slow to make us lose

Misbah made wrong fielding plans to make us lose

Afridi as captain woudl have done much better

We need to sack Misbah

We need to change captains

We don't need good players, just need to change captain.

We are amazing team without Misbah

.......

Ad infinitum.

There is reason, we told that "Ghussa is haraam"! In your anger, you totally forgot that this thread and a number of my threads are about Misbah's S/R and batting! :)

Any..whoooooo.....

Enjoy the updated stats (after 2nd ODI bs Aus) ....... these may calm you down! :)

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misbah batted for 0 deliveries in todays match, we lost.

misbah batted for 1 ball and we lost. (first ODI)

lol thread is a fail but I thought I would bump for fun :srt
 
Waiting for Misbah to retire and go crazy with this thread.

Let's track its progress.

Was Misbah the one making Pakistan lose all these years?

Let's see.
 
Waiting for Misbah to retire and go crazy with this thread.

Let's track its progress.

Was Misbah the one making Pakistan lose all these years?

Let's see.

I'm afraid some people will always find a way to hide behind numbers, colourful charts and the like.

But I'm equally curious, yes. Almost excited, actually.
 
W63 AKA PP's rainbow man is about to come with his dots, blue quotes and psychedelic charts. Brace yourselves!
 
WL spot on as usual
Last match misbah only played 22 balss today he tuk tukked to 47 runs
 
Miss him. He was the classic example of how people confuse correlation with causation and have no clue on how to infer the results of what data shows even when they are extremely good with data manipulation. I remember him making a claim that since more sexual attacks occur in summer, therefore short dresses cause more attacks, completely ignoring all the other factors which go with summer, i, e, people (both victims and attackers) spending more times outside, women staying out later, and a 100 other factors. Classic W63L35
 
Miss him. He was the classic example of how people confuse correlation with causation and have no clue on how to infer the results of what data shows even when they are extremely good with data manipulation. I remember him making a claim that since more sexual attacks occur in summer, therefore short dresses cause more attacks, completely ignoring all the other factors which go with summer, i, e, people (both victims and attackers) spending more times outside, women staying out later, and a 100 other factors. Classic W63L35
Blah blah, as usual the correlation does not imply causation garbage. On a side note, you must be delighted that we kept misbah ul haq in the team for the 4 long years after mohali.
 
Blah blah, as usual the correlation does not imply causation garbage. On a side note, you must be delighted that we kept misbah ul haq in the team for the 4 long years after mohali.

The very fact that an established mathematical rule seems blah blah to you would show things, wouldn't it? And yes, I am a 100 times more worried about Misbah who has stood and fought against India in world cups than Afridi with an average of under 10 with bat and over 50 with ball against us in the world cup
 
The very fact that an established mathematical rule seems blah blah to you would show things, wouldn't it? And yes, I am a 100 times more worried about Misbah who has stood and fought against India in world cups than Afridi with an average of under 10 with bat and over 50 with ball against us in the world cup

Which means I would prefer having Afridi in the Pakistan team in the world cup 2015 against India than Misbah
 
This thread is dedicated to;
1) Fans who believe.... Misbah is the back bone of the Pakistani batting in ODIs.
2) Fans who believe that..... when Misbah scores runs, Pakistan wins in ODIs.
3) Fans who believe that.... when if Misbah did not stay at the wicket, Pakistan would be in big trouble in ODIs.
4) Fans who believe that..... if Misbah fails, Pakistan's ODI batting is too brittle to take the team home.
......and last but not the least.
5) My friend Savak's determination to speak the truth and keep speaking it.


Following stats evaluate if there is a relationship (or cause and effect) between Misbah's duration of stay at the wicket in ODIs and the impact on Match Result.

I divided Misbah's ODI innings into two categories;

1) Misbah stayed at the wicket for only 24 or less ball or Did not bat all.
ODIs where Misbah did not contribute all and other batsmen did most of the scoring.

2) Misbah stayed at the wicket for 25 or more balls.
ODIs where Misbah's contribution was significant.

I have excluded rained out and unfinished matches but did include tied ODIs.

So........... let's see how Pakistan team did when the ODIs are broken down in above two categories.


I picked 4 different time frames .......
a) Since Jan 1, 2012.
b) Since Oct 29, 2010 - Misbah's Return to the Team.
c) All ODIs with Misbah as Team Captain.

..and for the fans who may think that the sample size in a, b and c is not large enough;
d)All ODIs - whole career.


You can clearly see that success/win rate drastically improves when Misbah either does not bat at all or gets to play only 24 balls or less.

Most mind-blowing stats are that Team's Win/Loss Ratio is 7.50 when Misbah as captain does not bat more than 24 ball.... but drops down to a losing Win/Loss Ratio of 0.89 if he happens to stay more than 24 balls. AMAZING!!!!!!


So... based on following 4 tables;

Question: Why do we need Misbah to bat more than 24 balls in an ODI then?



.

Proven once again today!
Hard and irrefutable facts !!!
 
W/L proved correct once more Misbah should learn from Steven Smith how to play under pressure!!
 
This thread is dedicated to;
1) Fans who believe.... Misbah is the back bone of the Pakistani batting in ODIs.
2) Fans who believe that..... when Misbah scores runs, Pakistan wins in ODIs.
3) Fans who believe that.... when if Misbah did not stay at the wicket, Pakistan would be in big trouble in ODIs.
4) Fans who believe that..... if Misbah fails, Pakistan's ODI batting is too brittle to take the team home.
......and last but not the least.
5) My friend Savak's determination to speak the truth and keep speaking it.


Following stats evaluate if there is a relationship (or cause and effect) between Misbah's duration of stay at the wicket in ODIs and the impact on Match Result.

I divided Misbah's ODI innings into two categories;

1) Misbah stayed at the wicket for only 24 or less ball or Did not bat all.
ODIs where Misbah did not contribute all and other batsmen did most of the scoring.

2) Misbah stayed at the wicket for 25 or more balls.
ODIs where Misbah's contribution was significant.

I have excluded rained out and unfinished matches but did include tied ODIs.

So........... let's see how Pakistan team did when the ODIs are broken down in above two categories.


I picked 4 different time frames .......
a) Since Jan 1, 2012.
b) Since Oct 29, 2010 - Misbah's Return to the Team.
c) All ODIs with Misbah as Team Captain.

..and for the fans who may think that the sample size in a, b and c is not large enough;
d)All ODIs - whole career.


You can clearly see that success/win rate drastically improves when Misbah either does not bat at all or gets to play only 24 balls or less.

Most mind-blowing stats are that Team's Win/Loss Ratio is 7.50 when Misbah as captain does not bat more than 24 ball.... but drops down to a losing Win/Loss Ratio of 0.89 if he happens to stay more than 24 balls. AMAZING!!!!!!


So... based on following 4 tables;

Question: Why do we need Misbah to bat more than 24 balls in an ODI then?



.

Today he played more than 24 balls.
 
if they happen once or twice then yeah, but its a different story here that is supported by numbers that don't lie.

Dude, all the charts I have linked have happened over a period of time.
 
This thread is absolutely hilarious. What lengths this WL guy goes to to bash Misbah and this Savak guy just cant get over Mohali for some reason. Sure, he played slowly and accelerated far too late but that is one match. Where were the other 10 players?
 
This thread is absolutely hilarious. What lengths this WL guy goes to to bash Misbah and this Savak guy just cant get over Mohali for some reason. Sure, he played slowly and accelerated far too late but that is one match. Where were the other 10 players?

The thread is that mosbah when faces 24 plus balls probability of losing is very high but we can still win!
 
I'm a fan of the OP but this is a terrible sample.

The guy usually comes in in losing situations.
 
Never seen a poster who manipulates stats to make his/her point! I think best way to analyse cricketer is to evaluate them one game at a time. Context of each game differs, and you never consider that! Context of the game changes players way of performing.
 
Wasim Akram "If it wasn't for Misbah today, Pakistan would not have made 180"

End of story :)
 
Misbah taking away all the momentum

Misbah has already slowed down our rate. I know he bats slow but he needs to aim to keep taking singles and rotating the strike! He's just taking up all the bowls to these part time bowlers!! Why destroy all the momentum we have
 
Misbah ul Haq making sure we stick to team plan and showing the rest of the batsman how its done.
 
Sarfraz was giving this same bowler a phanti, and Misbah just played out a maiden to Tahir.. pathetic

He came in at a great situation today too, so much for the momentum
 
I dont understand what is he doing by blocking all balls from Tahir & looking so susceptible on the crease...can never understand this guy, he is very phattu/ nervous person, unlike a pakistani
 
Funny how this thread was so quiet when he scored quickly and we won the game :98:
 
He ALWAYS does it in search of his own fifty :( Makes other players go for unnecessary risks and in the process they lose their wickets..

But he gets away with it most of the time, as top order already collapsed.. but in a situation like today, his selfish innings become too evident..
 
I can never understand this guy, he is very phattu/ nervous person, unlike a pakistani
 
Funny how this thread was so quiet when he scored quickly and we won the game :98:

What he is doing today is criminal... SA are playing with 4 bowlers, and already leg spinner is under pressure... I can understand him not going against likes of Steyn n Morkel, but against part-timer and struggling spinner he needs to show authority
 
Wasim Akram "If it wasn't for Misbah today, Pakistan would not have made 180"

End of story :)

Me: "If we rely on Misbah too much, we may never cross 250 ever"

End of story :)
 
absolutely killed the innings and he didn't even came in 30/3 today build pressure on younis and lead him to play a silly shot
 
absolutely killed the innings and he didn't even came in 30/3 today build pressure on younis and lead him to play a silly shot

That last bit is nonsense, Younus was doing what Younus always does. Use his wrists to manoeuvre the ball into gaps and steal a single, he just made a mess of it. It had nothing to do with pressure.
 
Everybody 'll blame Misbah, but on this track, at this size of stadium, we are in 38th over & 5 down with highest being 49........ One should understand why Misbah bats like this. He has absolutely no confidence on any of his batsmen, tries to make sure stays at one end; most times over do it.

I don't think he has the capability to rotate coming immediately, but today's PAK batting is absolute disgrace. YK should never play ODI again, got out to a part-timer just when you don't need your set batsman to get out..............
 
Another myth busted [MENTION=2344]W63L35[/MENTION]

By the way, how did you get the figure of 24 balls? Did you pick it out of a hat??
 
Another myth busted [MENTION=2344]W63L35[/MENTION]

By the way, how did you get the figure of 24 balls? Did you pick it out of a hat??


That's the pick point of the spectrum. hat he was trying to prove actually comes highest favorable at 24 balls. This is the cross-over point - you take 25 or 23 balls, results would have been less favorable (to his logic).
 
Updated Stats: At the end of PAK-SAF Pool match.

P.S. There was a typo in the circled box below in the previous updates. It is corrected in this post.
 

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as soon as his thread was removed, [MENTION=2344]W63L35[/MENTION] came out of his hiding
 
as soon as his thread was removed, [MENTION=2344]W63L35[/MENTION] came out of his hiding

rofl, that thread got deleted?

Should have been kept alive permanently as a shrine to his obsession.
 
Updated Stats: At the end of PAK-SAF Pool match.

P.S. There was a typo in the circled box below in the previous updates. It is corrected in this post.

Is it ceteris paribus? If not, are you really a statistician?
 
as soon as his thread was removed, [MENTION=2344]W63L35[/MENTION] came out of his hiding

rofl, that thread got deleted?

Should have been kept alive permanently as a shrine to his obsession.

NOOOO!!! It was ATG material thread.

Even [MENTION=135842]FreeBird[/MENTION] had dived in blindly to defend W63, without even reading and understanding what nonse was written in the OP. Later he realized it and backed away as well.

We missed out on a lot of potential fun man.
 
There must be some way to recover that thread, let's start a petition.

#JusticeForWL
 
More pirates = less global warming

View attachment 51766

I am afraid you are dismissing the OP's well researched post with nonsensical examples like this. Correlation != Causation when:
a) When you are correlating unrelated facts like you have done
OR
b) When you are correlating related facts, but other dominant variables have been ignore in the analysis.

In W63L35's post he has controlled for extraneous variables by taking a large enough sample size and analyzing both positive and negative scenarios over a period of time for practically the same team. If you brush his analysis aside, how would we value people posting averages of batsmen in winning scenarios or correlating MoM to wins & so on ? Correlation != Causation, right ? Pretty much every cricket stat could be dismissed this way.

We struggle to grapple with the OP because our simple intuition makes you wonder how a country's supposedly best batsman can cause the team to win while underperforming and lose while performing ? Fair question. But when stats tell you the opposite a deeper analysis is required.

TBH, i have not followed Misbah's career very closely, but every time i have seen him bat in ODI's especially early on in his innings, he is simply unable to rotate the strike and bats at close to 50 SR regardless of the match situation. This builds huge pressure on an already fragile batting lineup, which causes the already suicidal batsmen to take undue risks & perish. If you look at Misbah's finaly tally it may be respectable, but he scores his runs when the game is dead and the cause is lost or when Pakistan has already lost its edge.

The recent Ind-Pak & Pak-SAF games were great examples.

The Ind-Pak game:
Misbah walks in the 18th over at the fall of Haris Sohail's wicket when the required rate was 6.83
The game was alive until Afridi was around & Afridi was scoring at close to 100% SR. When Afridi got out, Misbah's score reads 31 off 48 (SR: 65) and the required rate is: 9.80. Game over!
In the ensuing passage of play, Misbah goes hammer & tongs and finishes at a healthy and respectable 76 off 80. Great innings you say! But the runs he scored merely helped reduce the margin of loss and the NRR, but it did not help the team significantly.

Pak-SAF game:
Misbah walks in the 16th over with the score reading 90/2, Pak is going at a brisk 5.62. By the 24th over Misbah killed at the momentum built by the openers. He is 9 off 29 striking at 31%. The run rate at this point is 4.79. Pak still had the edge in the game until Umar Akmal got out, at which point SAF took over the game. At that point Misbah's score reads: 39 off 62. Not good enough!

Given the low confidence Misbah has in his batting line up, his first or fifth gear strategy hardly works well. He simply does not have the game to make the most of the middle overs.

I am sure if i take more examples i can bring out this point stronger, but dont have the time. OTOH, my analysis and the OP's could be wrong too, as my sample is not significant, I'd love the OP to be proven wrong by some examples, not by rhetorics & wise cracks.
 
Here is a more credible way to scrutinize the OP's analysis.

Look at Misbah's performances in games won against significant teams. Look for his strike rate progression from early on in the innings. Unless the match is low scoring where batting out the over is important, i'd have to think Misbah's strike rate graph would have been good in those performances.

Similarly look at Misbah's performances in games lose against significant teams. I'd think Misbah's strike rate progression would have sucked.

That should tell us more. Not the pirates-global warming and the chicken-moon correlations.
 
Noooo it was legendary :(
Just want to thank every person (who posted in that legendary thread) from the bottom of my heart because I wanted to prove a very simple point to one of my very good friend. Thanks for helping me prove that point! :)




P.S. If what I posted [stupid or genius, right or wrong, meaningful or meaningless] defined me [as a few on you had indicated], then type of replies and the language used also defined those posters. Think about it!
 
Here is a more credible way to scrutinize the OP's analysis.

Look at Misbah's performances in games won against significant teams. Look for his strike rate progression from early on in the innings. Unless the match is low scoring where batting out the over is important, i'd have to think Misbah's strike rate graph would have been good in those performances.

Similarly look at Misbah's performances in games lose against significant teams. I'd think Misbah's strike rate progression would have sucked.

That should tell us more. Not the pirates-global warming and the chicken-moon correlations.

The only credible way I could think of is a logit or probit estimator. A binary (1 = win, 0 = loss) left-hand side variable and Misbah's inning lasting as a right-hand side variable. I guarantee you that the model would suffer from an omitted variable bias. So, the OP would have to include some control variables. Even then I don't foresee a statistically significant result at even a 10% level.

My point remains. This is what a real statistician should have done, as a starting point. Not some crudely done stuff that is spurious at best and fraudulent at worst.
 
This thread reminds me of the following quote. Data in the hands of an unqualified person is like a medicine in the hands of a quack who may abuse it out of ignorance leading to dangerous results.
 
The only credible way I could think of is a logit or probit estimator. A binary (1 = win, 0 = loss) left-hand side variable and Misbah's inning lasting as a right-hand side variable. I guarantee you that the model would suffer from an omitted variable bias. So, the OP would have to include some control variables. Even then I don't foresee a statistically significant result at even a 10% level.

My point remains. This is what a real statistician should have done, as a starting point. Not some crudely done stuff that is spurious at best and fraudulent at worst.

I am afraid you are not being practical here. If the OP is trying to advance his case for a PhD in statistical analysis of cricket, then you are right, he needs to bring in every statistical variable that may influence the outcome. Going by your expectations cricket as a game can never be analyzed by stats, as we can hardly account for pressure, swing, stakes, quality of opponents, form etc accurately. But we know we can do better than that, don't we ? Routinely, cricket is analyzed with numbers and most analysts worth their salt do a decent job making their case.

The OP has done enough to merit the theory that Misbah's poor SR rather than his decent average is the more influential factor in the final outcome. To scrutinize this more, it should be enough if we simply scan Misbah's SR progression in games won & lost (ignore low scoring games where length of stay rather than SR is the more influential variable). Since OP has shown that in terms of quantity Misbah's knocks don't lead to wins often, if the data shows Misbah's poor SR progression leads to losses and good SR progression leads to wins, then we have a more than decent theory on our hands.

Unfortunately most of the comments in this thread miss the central point and resort to attacking the OP.

Based on the cursory scan of Misbah's stats & the games i have witnessed myself, i think the OP is correct. He deserves more credit than he is given.
 
[MENTION=52503]cricjunkie2[/MENTION]

I am afraid you are not being practical here. If the OP is trying to advance his case for a PhD in statistical analysis of cricket, then you are right, he needs to bring in every statistical variable that may influence the outcome.

There are estimators that can absorb the omitted variable bias in their error terms and still generate some amazingly accurate estimates. Statistics has advanced quite a bit. So, it is very much possible.

Going by your expectations cricket as a game can never be analyzed by stats, as we can hardly account for pressure, swing, stakes, quality of opponents, form etc accurately. But we know we can do better than that, don't we ? Routinely, cricket is analyzed with numbers and most analysts worth their salt do a decent job making their case.

See above. Of course, it can be analyzed. Baseball and American football are routinely analyzed. Refer to peer-reviewed journals related to sports economics. They don't show it on mainstream media because it's tailored to a specialized audience.

The OP has done enough to merit the theory that Misbah's poor SR rather than his decent average is the more influential factor in the final outcome.

He has done absolutely no merit. In fact I'd call his conclusions spurious at best and fraudulent at worst. As others have mentioned, correlation does not imply causation. Moreover, you CANNOT test the OP's hypothesis unless you hold the other variables constant (ceteris paribus). That's Stats 101. No PhD required.

Based on the cursory scan of Misbah's stats & the games i have witnessed myself, i think the OP is correct. He deserves more credit than he is given.

You and others only have a theory. Unless you can test it there is no means of knowing if it is right or wrong. To advance a theory based on questionable statistical techniques is junk science.
 
Lmao, you included instances where Misbah did not bat at all as well?

If he did not need to bat, it meant that the top order made runs, obviously if the top order batted out the full 50 overs Pakistan will win those matches....

Atleast attempt to make it accurate if you are going to start a Misbah crucifixion thread.


Got to agree with this. Those statistics are fairly pointless. I would prefer to see a comparison of the win/loss ratio of matches in which Misbah scored 30+ as compared to those where he did not. And you should only include matches where he actually batted.

The only thing that the OP's chart shows is that Pakistan have actually been winning an impressive number of matches with Misbah in the team.
 
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