More pirates = less global warming
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I am afraid you are dismissing the OP's well researched post with nonsensical examples like this. Correlation != Causation when:
a) When you are correlating unrelated facts like you have done
OR
b) When you are correlating related facts, but other dominant variables have been ignore in the analysis.
In W63L35's post he has controlled for extraneous variables by taking a large enough sample size and analyzing both positive and negative scenarios over a period of time for practically the same team. If you brush his analysis aside, how would we value people posting averages of batsmen in winning scenarios or correlating MoM to wins & so on ? Correlation != Causation, right ? Pretty much every cricket stat could be dismissed this way.
We struggle to grapple with the OP because our simple intuition makes you wonder how a country's supposedly best batsman can cause the team to win while underperforming and lose while performing ? Fair question. But when stats tell you the opposite a deeper analysis is required.
TBH, i have not followed Misbah's career very closely, but every time i have seen him bat in ODI's especially early on in his innings, he is simply unable to rotate the strike and bats at close to 50 SR regardless of the match situation. This builds huge pressure on an already fragile batting lineup, which causes the already suicidal batsmen to take undue risks & perish. If you look at Misbah's finaly tally it may be respectable, but he scores his runs when the game is dead and the cause is lost or when Pakistan has already lost its edge.
The recent Ind-Pak & Pak-SAF games were great examples.
The Ind-Pak game:
Misbah walks in the 18th over at the fall of Haris Sohail's wicket when the required rate was 6.83
The game was alive until Afridi was around & Afridi was scoring at close to 100% SR. When Afridi got out, Misbah's score reads 31 off 48 (SR: 65) and the required rate is: 9.80. Game over!
In the ensuing passage of play, Misbah goes hammer & tongs and finishes at a healthy and respectable 76 off 80. Great innings you say! But the runs he scored merely helped reduce the margin of loss and the NRR, but it did not help the team significantly.
Pak-SAF game:
Misbah walks in the 16th over with the score reading 90/2, Pak is going at a brisk 5.62. By the 24th over Misbah killed at the momentum built by the openers. He is 9 off 29 striking at 31%. The run rate at this point is 4.79. Pak still had the edge in the game until Umar Akmal got out, at which point SAF took over the game. At that point Misbah's score reads: 39 off 62. Not good enough!
Given the low confidence Misbah has in his batting line up, his first or fifth gear strategy hardly works well. He simply does not have the game to make the most of the middle overs.
I am sure if i take more examples i can bring out this point stronger, but dont have the time. OTOH, my analysis and the OP's could be wrong too, as my sample is not significant, I'd love the OP to be proven wrong by some examples, not by rhetorics & wise cracks.
Scored quickly????
