Oil Prices.

[Savak]

Oil Prices went up as high as $147-148 per barrel in July. It i believe was the primary driver of this 20-30% inflation most consumer's around the world have been facing for the 8 months especially on basic household commodities.

Many people in my company Arif Habib Investment's were predicting this would go as high as $200 per barrel.

And today oil is $63 per barrel. The Opec nations have announced they will cut now cut production of Oil by 1.5 million barrels from Nov 1. There are now 2 schools of thought, some people tell me that oil prices are more or less stable now irrespective of the cut in production from Opec due to the decline in demand bought about by the global reccession. The other opinion is that oil prices could well increase again due to the reduction in oil production.

So what do you guys think? If lets say Oil prices remain at $50-60 per barrel from now on without an increase further, can it be a turnaround for most economies? Will it be possible to now see a reduction in oil prices, inflation and misery most people especially the poor have had to endure for the last 6-8 months.

 

[Amir]

Commodity prices are falling but the poor will continue to suffer. So many economies are dependent on oil alone like the Gulf and Venzeula that they will do anything to keep that price from dipping under $50.

Plus, falling commodity prices and oil prices are hurting many of the G20 economies like Canada and in panic the governments are throwing money where possible and cutign rates as much as they can. One feels they have no plan, it all seems reactionary and they are just trying to slow down the inevitable. They can pummell all the money they want into the system but the GENERAL publics confidence has been damaged and in time iwll be restored naturally.

Governments and financial institutions at this given point will do anything to get prices to rise for things like commodities and oil because they are teh bread and butter of many of teh worlds exporters. With falling prices, it hurts their flow of money and they cannot let that happen. So, prices will rise in 2-3 months time and the poor will suffer. Oil should go back to around 70-80 come winter time.

I look forward to this winter and monitoring the financial system with great interest since I am going to be starting my 4 month internship with Scotia Capital (investment arm of Scotiabank).

 

[Gabbar Singh]

Well 6 years on it's interesting to see what's happening to oil prices. Some are predicting that we're headed towards $60 soon unless OPEC significantly cuts it's output.


<div><a href="http://www.infomine.com/investment/metal-prices/crude-oil/5-year/"><img border="0" src="http://charts.infomine.com?386" alt="5 Year Crude Oil Prices - Crude Oil Price Chart" width="180" height="150" /></a></div>

 

[wasim-fan]

THis is final nail in coffin as far as US is concerned. This is also genius of US. They had one Achilles heels. But through their innovation they have overcome that too. There is talk of opening up export of oil from US.

Also, I sense a geo political game at play here to isolate Russia and pressurise Iran to sign the nuclear deal.

 

[Varun]

The 21st century oil story has been interesting so far, to say the least.

 

[Gabbar Singh]

Looks like OPEC don't know what to do. Cutting production may not work for them anymore because there is so much new oil coming into the market from America (North and South).

OPEC either keep up production and roll with it, or cut back and let others take up the slack and happily take the cash.

Oil price: Opec members split over output cuts

Saudi Arabia has indicated it will not push for output cuts to help push up oil prices, as Opec oil producers prepare for their meeting on Thursday.

The oil market will "stabilise itself eventually", said Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi.

Saudi Arabia is the largest producer of the 12 members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec).

The oil cartel is split over how to react to the sharp slump in oil prices.

The price of Brent crude has plunged 30% since June, triggered by a sharp rise in US shale oil output and weakening global demand.


There is speculation that on Thursday Opec could announce its first cut in oil production since 2009 in an attempt to support the oil price.

Among the Opec members, Venezuela and Iraq have called for output cuts.

However, fellow Opec member United Arab Emirates's (UAE) Oil Minister Suhail bin Mohammed al-Mazroui appeared to side with Saudi Arabia, indicating it would not push for a cut in production, saying "the market will fix itself ultimately".

"We are not going to panic, this is not the first time, this is not a crisis that requires us to panic ... we have seen [prices] way lower. We are not interested in the short fixes because we know they will not last," Mr al-Mazroui told Reuters.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30211564

 

[FreeBird]

Absolutely loved the Saudi Minister's easiest of the easy solution, "it will stabilize by itself".

 

[jeetu]

I hope price of Petrol/Diesel cuts down further.

 

[Buffet]

THis is final nail in coffin as far as US is concerned. This is also genius of US. They had one Achilles heels. But through their innovation they have overcome that too. There is talk of opening up export of oil from US.

Also, I sense a geo political game at play here to isolate Russia and pressurise Iran to sign the nuclear deal.

just to to quantify this comments here are some interesting data point. Russia is the biggest loser with price drop. In fact, Russia current budget is based on price being $100.



.
Break Even budget for many countries based on oil price.
.

 

[godzilla]

i dont believe some of those ^ charts, i guess it depends on which crude theyre using to benchmark.

a drop in oil prices is a massive boon to global economies, at least the oil consuming ones, obviously the opposite for the producing ones. the drop had been for two principle reasons and an ancillary third one -

1) long time line projects are all hitting, so there is a flush production: just to clarify this a little, (i) if an isolated offshore deepwater oil discovery is made, obviously depending on size and proximity to other infrastructure, developing a find, producing it and selling it is a project that takes 5 years + and results in a chunk of sudden supply (ii) clearly the shale phenomenon has been vastly successful, this is much more controllable in that it can be turned on and off quite easily, and is relatively expensive to produce (70-80$ return hurdles)

2) an increase in supply described above has coincided with a slowdown in the fastest growing energy consuming global economies, so on the margin, demand is dropping too, at least in terms of growth in demand. combine those two together spells doom for any commodity, and if you add in the impact of s strengthening dollar, since oil is denominated in US dollars, that adds to the expense of oil and so dents demand further.

3) opec has lost share to firstly to russia a few years ago - that was a result of re-completions of old oil wells from the 60s and 70s once the end of cold war allowed western oil service companies to go in and apply modern techniques - again flush but temporary production, and secondly to the usa with its shale success. either opec can take this lying down, cut back their own supply to keep prices where they want them, but lose market share to the countries with increased production, or they can maintain production and volumetric market share and march oil prices down. the main opec producers, saudi and their minions can tolerate lower oil prices far better than their competition because i) they have huge excess cash reserves and ii) they have far lower breakeven costs of production. consequently opec's meeting this thursday/friday is likely to keep oil markets week, although this is largely anticipated already.

in terms of inflation, the main issue driving in inflation was the result of excess debt. most global markets overly endebted, are inflating their way out of the problem - ie, suppose you owe $10bn; if you increase the supply of currency, you decreasethe value of a dollar (supply and demand), the less value that a dollar is worth in real terms (ie in terms of actual things, gold, silver, oil, corn, water etc), the less the value of your debt in real terms. however, a consequence of that is inflation, since people still need oil, gas, water, food, things, which dont change in terms of real value by this process of currency printing. what it means is that if a loaf of bread cost 1$, and you print twice as many dollars as there were before, a loaf of bread is now worth $2.

it helps inflation a lot that energy prices are dipping, but in my opinion this is a temporary supply/demand imbalance. at $75 WTI, we're already seeing cap ex budgets being lowered at oil and gas producer companies, which means less investment in production, and so less production, redressing the supply demand equation. if you add onto that the reality that current production, at any point in time as a stand alone is not stable since any oil well declines with time, its not difficult to see how this perfectly cyclical market self corrects, essentially to a level of low double digit returns on the highest marginal cost of production at the current rate of demand of oil globally.

so in terms of inflation, i expect that a) although it looked like energy was the cause of inflation, thats not entirely true, it was to some extent true, in the sense that energy is naturally cyclical in nature, but the main underlying issue driving inflation is debt, quantitative easing, and currency supply (which is why the ppp/pmln governments are to blame, they will always borrow more and more unless they ramp up tax revenue which they wont do) b) we have had an easing in inflation because of the cyclicality of energy as opposed to the debt issue being completely resolved and so c) the saudi minister is right to some degree, the energy cycle will balance, this might take months or a year or two, given that marginal production costs are in the 70-80 range, its difficult to see how unless there is a massive drop in global oil demand (bear in mind i think that oil demand has not grown year on year for only one year in the past 50 or 100 years or something) that prices will dip sustainably below that level. shale oil might delay this rebound, just as it did with gas markets in the usa when shale gas became the in thing seven or so years ago.

ironically if prices do stay low because of shale oil supply, economic recovery will mean greater oil demand, and so the cycle will start again.

 

[Buffet]

i dont believe some of those ^ charts, i guess it depends on which crude theyre using to benchmark.

They may not be 100% accurate but does provide a rough and short overview of entire situation. Break even points should be correct. At least for Russia. I have seen it in Russian budget reference.

You are right about the cycle of oil but there is one huge factor and that is gas reserve discoveries. Well, we are not going to get rid of oil boom and bust in near future but one more major factor to consider. Also, you are right, if oil remains below certain threshold then it's not economical to produce it from shale. Eventually, prices will again go up as supply becomes less and demand keeps increasing due to lower prices.

 

[Fallen King]

This is not looking good. God bless man who invested electric car. It may be expensive, but worth it in the long run.

Start saving money for hybrid cars. Time is changing.

 

[godzilla]

They may not be 100% accurate but does provide a rough and short overview of entire situation. Break even points should be correct. At least for Russia. I have seen it in Russian budget reference.

You are right about the cycle of oil but there is one huge factor and that is gas reserve discoveries. Well, we are not going to get rid of oil boom and bust in near future but one more major factor to consider. Also, you are right, if oil remains below certain threshold then it's not economical to produce it from shale. Eventually, prices will again go up as supply becomes less and demand keeps increasing due to lower prices.

unless FLNG is proved to work or modular LNG plants become economically feasible, gas isnt much of an issue at all in my opinion.

the defining difference between oil and gas markets is that oil is easily transportable, for gas you need LNG (liquid natural gas) plants if the gas is stranded which currently cost 10bn$(?) of investments and take 5-7 years, so are only workable for finds of 10 tcf (? - am making the numbers up but from memory they are ball park correct). either that or you need pipelines - theres no other way of selling gas, which is the important thing. its not about the discovery, its about getting it to market.

this is why even with the energy equivalence of 1 mcf of gas versus 1 barrel of oil being 1:6, the price disparity in usa markets for example, even with the recent drop in oil, is $4.4:$74 or 1:17 ie gas is about the third of the price of oil in terms of energy content equivalence.

in addition, as well as getting it to market, you need a market that will use gas. for example the power generation in the usa has a certain amount of gas powered generators versus coal or oil generators. theres only so much you can switch to gas since its so cheap, beyond which theres just no possible demand. if cng cars become popular and they build out fuelling stations throughout the usa, that becomes a source of demand but its a huge long term investment - thats why gas discoveries will have very limited impact on oil prices in my opinion - gas demand globally is maxed out as much as it can be given its a third of the price of oil.

 

[godzilla]

This is not looking good. God bless man who invested electric car. It may be expensive, but worth it in the long run.

Start saving money for hybrid cars. Time is changing.

where do you think the electricity for powering electric cars comes from?

 

[Fallen King]

where do you think the electricity for powering electric cars comes from?

One step at a time. Oil company charging too much already.

That doesn't change the fact that we are toasted now without oil.

 

[Gabbar Singh]

 

[Cricket_Engineer]

What are the best shares to buy related to the drop, and inevitable increase in oil price? I am thinking Tullow and/or BG Group but anyone here more knowledgeable? Would greatly appreciate any advice

 

[Gabbar Singh]

The price of Brent crude oil has fallen below $59 a barrel for the first time since May 2009.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30491801

 

[OZGOD]

It's been tanking because the House of Saud has decided to eliminate some pesky competitors.

 

[Square Drive]

Here in Canada, it's dropped down massively to 97.5 cents per litre! Good times.

 

[ahmedzee]

Here in Canada, it's dropped down massively to 97.5 cents per litre! Good times.

Not really man...45% of canada's export is Oil...expect that to slow down (and lots of jobs to be lost). Would just put Canada in a difficult situation in the end. Alberta-Sask-BC is already losing so many jobs because of this. Ontario was already pretty bad in terms of jobs, so expect more and more people claiming EI. That has to come from the budget and expect some kind of tax increase to compensate that.

97.5 cents per litre?? we have 82 cents per litre here..haha ...jks..still not good.

 

[Square Drive]

Not really man...45% of canada's export is Oil...expect that to slow down (and lots of jobs to be lost). Would just put Canada in a difficult situation in the end. Alberta-Sask-BC is already losing so many jobs because of this. Ontario was already pretty bad in terms of jobs, so expect more and more people claiming EI. That has to come from the budget and expect some kind of tax increase to compensate that.

97.5 cents per litre?? we have 82 cents per litre here..haha ...jks..still not good.

Hmm, true.

Still, looks refreshing.

 

[Buffet]

What are the best shares to buy related to the drop, and inevitable increase in oil price? I am thinking Tullow and/or BG Group but anyone here more knowledgeable? Would greatly appreciate any advice

The oil servicers & midstream plays. Some of them have relatively long-term fee-based contracts that should insulate them from the move down in oil prices. Yet they have come down with other oil stocks.

Rather than betting on oil price rebound, you can bet on market to realize that some companies are still making the same or even more money with drop in oil prices. Babies have been thrown out with bath water here. These situations have tendencies to correct quickly.

 

[Thivagar]

Not really man...45% of canada's export is Oil...expect that to slow down (and lots of jobs to be lost). Would just put Canada in a difficult situation in the end. Alberta-Sask-BC is already losing so many jobs because of this. Ontario was already pretty bad in terms of jobs, so expect more and more people claiming EI. That has to come from the budget and expect some kind of tax increase to compensate that.

97.5 cents per litre?? we have 82 cents per litre here..haha ...jks..still not good.

buggers working in the oil industry earn more than enough. A bugger who graduated highschool with me in 2011, went a year later to Alberta, has a NISSAN GTR already

 

[Thivagar]

Not really man...45% of canada's export is Oil...expect that to slow down (and lots of jobs to be lost). Would just put Canada in a difficult situation in the end. Alberta-Sask-BC is already losing so many jobs because of this. Ontario was already pretty bad in terms of jobs, so expect more and more people claiming EI. That has to come from the budget and expect some kind of tax increase to compensate that.

97.5 cents per litre?? we have 82 cents per litre here..haha ...jks..still not good.

Where do you live ? If Canada reduce its oil exportation, our prices would be cheaper. Im loving this and I don't even drive

 

[ahmedzee]

Where do you live ? If Canada reduce its oil exportation, our prices would be cheaper. Im loving this and I don't even drive

GTR isn't expensive if he bought a couple years old. I am in alberta but lived in Sauga before.

Low oil price is very bad. Everything revolves around this oil industry in Canada. Expect even Ontario to suffer further. Manufacturing would slow down due to low demand in this oil industry. For example: our pump manufacturer is in Ontario. That manufacturer won't be getting many projects if everything is being cancelled here.
So basically overall it isn't so good. Yes oil price at pump is low but that's the only positive.

 

[James]

Loving this - filling up my car used to cost nearly 60 pounds, now it's about 44 - saves valuable funds every month for the zillion other bills!!

 

[Amoeba]

Usual bedfellow - Saudi and US doing their best to destroy Russia and Iran.

 

[nish_mate]

Will take out all the Shale producers in the US as well and the Canadian Tar sand producers...

Russia will live on to fight another day- worst thing they can do is go and default and show the middle finger to all those holding Russian debt

 

[Eagle_Eye]

Not quite take out shale producers just yet, many have hedges in place for 2015. It will need a sustained low price for most of 2015 for that to happen. Oil shale producers will most likely switch focus to gas.

For most people low oil price is like a tax cut.... Without having an official tax cut.

 

[Gabbar Singh]

It's been tanking because the House of Saud has decided to eliminate some pesky competitors.

Or it's a combined play between the Americans and the Saudis against Putin. In response for, amongst other things, his actions in Ukraine, Crimea and the support of Assad in Syria. Taken in combination with the economic sanctions, it's working.

 

[Crazy_K]

Still not satisfied, needs to hit 99p/litre

 

[nish_mate]

Still not satisfied, needs to hit 99p/litre

Petition the govt to reduce taxation on petrol!

 

[Thivagar]

GTR isn't expensive if he bought a couple years old. I am in alberta but lived in Sauga before.

Low oil price is very bad. Everything revolves around this oil industry in Canada. Expect even Ontario to suffer further. Manufacturing would slow down due to low demand in this oil industry. For example: our pump manufacturer is in Ontario. That manufacturer won't be getting many projects if everything is being cancelled here.
So basically overall it isn't so good. Yes oil price at pump is low but that's the only positive.

We'll he just has one and he is 21 .

How are you finding Alberta ? Are you getting paid more ? Is the living cost high as it is exaggerated ?

 

[ahmedzee]

We'll he just has one and he is 21 .

How are you finding Alberta ? Are you getting paid more ? Is the living cost high as it is exaggerated ?

Living cost honestly is the same. Infact we have less taxes here (5% only). The only thing that i find expensive is the restaurants, that is due to high labor cost. Normally one wouldn't find a job in Ontario. Over here, it is easier to find a job and pay is atleast 30% more. Housing is definitely cheaper than Toronto, though not far off. The only negative is, it is completely based on Oil & Gas industry. It snows less too, but is more chilly. Definitely a better quality of life is enjoyed.

 

[Thivagar]

Living cost honestly is the same. Infact we have less taxes here (5% only). The only thing that i find expensive is the restaurants, that is due to high labor cost. Normally one wouldn't find a job in Ontario. Over here, it is easier to find a job and pay is atleast 30% more. Housing is definitely cheaper than Toronto, though not far off. The only negative is, it is completely based on Oil & Gas industry. It snows less too, but is more chilly. Definitely a better quality of life is enjoyed.

Cool, I'll stick to Toronto for a while...........NEVER I"LL MOVE TO BRAMPTON !!

 

[Gabbar Singh]

What are the best shares to buy related to the drop, and inevitable increase in oil price? I am thinking Tullow and/or BG Group but anyone here more knowledgeable? Would greatly appreciate any advice

[MENTION=137918]Cricket_Engineer[/MENTION], you could go down this route if you think prices are going to increase.

How can private investors play the oil price

For those who believe the oil price has hit the bottom and can only bounce back from here, the easiest way to invest is to buy an oil exchange-traded fund (ETF).

These funds track the movements of either the oil price or oil companies. But bear in mind that investing in any commodity, including oil, is extremely risky.

The ETF Securities Brent 1mth EFT, which trades on the stock market under the ticker symbol OILB, is designed to track the oil price. The annual cost is 0.49pc.

Adam Laird of Hargreaves Lansdown, the fund shop, tipped the Amundi MSCI Europe Energy and iShares Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETFs.

“The Amundi fund tracks 20 European energy companies and has a low charge at 0.25pc. The iShares product tracks 109 global firms, but has a higher charge of 0.55pc,” Mr Laird said.

There are a small number of “active” funds that specialise in oil. These include the Junior Oils Trust and New City Energy, an investment trust. But these are risky plays and have poor recent performance records.

Brian Dennehy of Fundexpert.co.uk, the analyst, said a better way to play the oil price fall was to boost exposure to an “energy-intensive” Asian economy.

“It acts like a tax cut for countries such as India, China and Japan,” he said.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...all-the-winners-losers-and-how-to-profit.html

 

[Last Monetarist]

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/opec-seen-keeping-oil-output-policy-unchanged-opec-sources-say-2021-10-04/

OPEC+ said on Monday it would stick to an existing pact for a gradual increase in oil output, sending crude prices to three-year highs and adding to inflationary pressures that consuming nations fear will derail an economic recovery from the pandemic.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and their allies, known as OPEC+, have faced calls for from big consumers, such as the United States and India, for extra supplies after oil prices surged more than 50% this year.

OPEC+ "reconfirmed the production adjustment plan", the group said in a statement issued after online ministerial talks, referring to a previously agreed deal under which 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) would be added in November,

Brent crude roared above $81 a barrel on news that the group would stay with its plan for gradual additional production, rather than offering more supply to the market.

"We will be monitoring the situation, as we know, demand usually falls in the fourth quarter," Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said after the talks, adding that he believed the market is now balanced.

An OPEC+ source had told Reuters shortly before Monday's ministerial talks that the group had faced pressure to ramp up production faster, but added: "We are scared of the fourth wave of corona; no one wants to make any big moves."

The group agreed in July to boost output by 400,000 bpd a month until at least April 2022 to phase out 5.8 million bpd of existing production cuts - already much reduced from the huge curbs that were in place during the worst of the pandemic.

Demand has bounced back swiftly, while supply has been disrupted by factors that include hurricanes that have hammered U.S. production, and low levels of investment across the industry during the depths of the pandemic when demand cratered.

A senior aide to U.S. President Joe Biden met Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Saudi Arabia on a range of issues last week, saying oil was "of concern". India, another big oil consumer, has pushed for more supply.

"The outcome of the OPEC+ meeting was no surprise, but when prices are at above $80 per barrel Brent, this is a level that makes customers uncomfortable and producers happy but cautious," consultancy Rystad Energy wrote.

Analysts had said they expected uncertainty about the impact on demand from variants of the coronavirus, which threaten fresh economic disruption, to weigh on OPEC+ decision-making.

 

[Last Monetarist]

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-edge-lower-wake-jump-opec-supply-restraint-2021-10-05/

Oil prices jumped 2% on Tuesday, with U.S. crude hitting its highest since 2014 and Brent futures climbing to a three-year high, after the OPEC+ group of producers stuck to its planned output increase rather than raising it further.

On Monday, OPEC+ agreed to adhere to its July pact to boost output by 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) each month until at least April 2022, phasing out 5.8 million bpd of existing production cuts.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil was up $1.45, or 1.9%, at $79.07 a barrel at 12:50 p.m. EDT (1650 GMT). During the session it surged as high as $79.48, the most in nearly seven years. Brent crude was up $1.55, or 1.9%, to $82.81. Earlier, it hit a three-year high of $83.13.

Both contracts extended gains made on Monday, when they each rose more than 2%.

"The market is realizing we are going to be undersupplied for the next couple of months and OPEC seems to be happy with that situation," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago.

Oil prices have already surged more than 50% this year, adding to inflationary pressures that crude-consuming nations such as the United States and India are concerned will derail recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.

Late last month, the OPEC+ Joint Technical Committee (JTC) said it expected a 1.1 million bpd supply deficit this year, which could turn into a 1.4 million bpd surplus next year.

Despite pressure to ramp up output, OPEC+ was concerned that a fourth global wave of COVID-19 infections could hit the demand recovery, a source told Reuters a little before Monday's talks.

Speculator buying has also driven up oil prices but some technical indicators suggest the market may be overbought, said Robert Yawger, director of the futures division at Mizuho Americas.

"At some point you run out of people to push it and the last long (position) is already in the market," Yawger said.

Investors will look to Wednesday's crude inventory data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration for further direction.

U.S. crude oil and distillate inventories are likely to have fallen last week, a preliminary Reuters poll showed.

 

[Last Monetarist]

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-skids-concerns-rising-surplus-q1-2021-11-26/

Oil prices plunged about $10 a barrel on Friday, their largest one-day drop since April 2020, as a new variant of the coronavirus spooked investors and added to concerns that a supply surplus could swell in the first quarter.

Oil fell with global equities markets on fears the variant could dampen economic growth and fuel demand.

The World Health Organization has designated the new variant as "of concern," according to the South African health minister, while Britain, Guatemala and European countries are among those to restrict travel from southern Africa, where the variant was detected. Top U.S. infectious disease official Dr. Anthony Fauci said on Friday that a ban on flights from southern Africa was a possibility.

Brent crude fell $8.62, or 10.5%, to $73.60 a barrel by 12:45 p.m. EST (1745 GMT).

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was down $9.36, or 11.9%, at $69.03 a barrel, in high volume trading after Thursday's Thanksgiving holiday in the United States.

Both contracts were heading for their fifth week of losses and their steepest falls in absolute terms since April 2020, when WTI turned negative for the first time.

News of the variant has caused ructions in a market previously caught between producer and consumer nations.

"The biggest fear is that it will be resistant to vaccines and be a massive setback for countries that have reaped the benefits from their rollouts," said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at OANDA.

OPEC+ is also monitoring developments around the variant, sources said on Friday, with some expressing concern that it may worsen the oil market outlook less than a week before a meeting to set policy.

Scientists have so far only detected the B.1.1.529 variant in relatively small numbers, mainly in South Africa but also in Botswana, Hong Kong and Israel, but they are concerned by its high number of mutations which could make it vaccine-resistant and more transmissible.

Drug makers Pfizer and BioNTech said if necessary they would be able to redesign their shot within 6 weeks and ship initial batches within 100 days.

The foreign ministry said South Africa would speak to Britain to try to get it to reconsider its travel ban.

"Our immediate concern is the damage that this decision will cause to both the tourism industries and businesses of both countries," Foreign Minister Naledi Pandor said in a statement.

Oil prices rose early in the week as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) suggested it could taper production in response to a strategic release from large consuming countries that are members of the International Energy Agency.

Such a release was likely to swell supplies in coming months, an OPEC source said, based on findings of a panel of experts that advises OPEC ministers. The forecasts cloud the outlook for a Dec. 2 meeting when the group will discuss whether to adjust its plan to increase output by 400,000 barrels per day in January and beyond.

"OPEC's initial assessment of the co-ordinated (stockpile) release and the sudden appearance of a new variant of the coronavirus raises serious concerns about economic growth and the oil balance in coming months," PVM analyst Tamas Varga said.