I see quite divided opinion and almost equal in both sides. I myself am not cent percent sure in this regard. In general, I prefer specialists for Test cricket (even all-rounders are specialist as well, instead of bits & pieces contributor), and expect players to deliver in their core role. However, there is always a scope of looking into perspective through different windows.
First, I don’t agree with the comparison of AUS tour with SAF tour at all. No way, the context and condition are remotely close, therefore using AUS tour (or disaster of it), as an example might be misleading. On four grounds, PAK’s AUS tour was disaster, for a four bowlers combination –
1. That AUS series was played on absolute batting belters – had PAK batted properly, all 3 Tests should have ended in draws. At Brisbane, PAK lost the game on 1st innings, at MCG, in one session and at SCG as well it was possible to draw that Test. I don’t think, we’ll see anything (condition) remotely close to that series in SAF. When team is expected to bowl 200+ overs, 4 bowlers indeed is a risk
2. PAK’s bowling picks in AUS series was made in fool’s paradise – they picked 5 pace bowlers Amir, Wahab, Rahat, Sohail & Imran. I called it then and then – apart from Amir, these are fast bowlers well into their 30s, being born as at least 3 to 5 years old. On such good batting wickets, apart from Wahab, and Amir others neither had the pace, nor stamina to carry the work load, even at genuine just 38 Imran was hardly a bowler in 1990 series – take out my filter for PAK pacers, he was that time officially like 32-33!!! In coming SAF tour, this is going to be a major shift (fingers crossed – I don’t trust Ul Haq for a single penny, hypocrite admi) – Abbas at 28 is the oldest of the pacers and he is relentless with his metronome, doesn’t depend on pace or shoulders; while Amir, Hasan, Shaheen & Hamza should be at their physical best condition.
3. AUS is a grave yard for spinners, and PAK failed to realize that Yasir was struggling. Misbah put every egg in Yasir’s basket and then looked clueless when Yasir failed, while AUS killed him with a barrage of left-handers on those concrete slabs. This time, I am sure things will be completely different – Yasir is bowling fantastically, SAF’s batting isn’t what is used to be and definitely wickets are going to be less punishing.
4. One BIG mistake for PAK in AUS tour was that, they went with absolute single dimensional batsmen – hardly anyone could bowl. Therefore, on absolute belters Misbah still had to operate with 4 bowlers, or over use Yasir from one end. This time in SAF, I see an equally important role for Haris with ball and the way he is bowling, easily can make it a 4.5 bowler’s attack.
Coming to history, PAK has won 2 active Test in SAF – one at Durban in 1998 & another one at Port Elizabeth. The first one was won against a very good SAF side, with PAK missing their best 2 players – Wasim & Inzi; then Amir was make shift Captain and they were put in by Hansie. Without Wasim & Saqlin, PAK’s last 4 were Mushtaq, Waquar, Shoiab & Fazle Akbar – probably posters have got a clue about PAK’s tail. But, those 4 bowlers did take 20 wickets for lesser cost than SAF, which probably is going to be the key tactics again this time.
The 2nd win at PE was against another tremendous SAF side, who again won the toss and PAK’s last 4 were Sami, Shoiab, Kaneria & Asif. But, Asif was outstanding through-out, Shoaib bowled just like 8 overs in the game, but enough to crash SAF’s batting backbone, and Kaneria probably bowled better than any spinner in SAF, in recent times – 7/141 or so in 65+ overs.
And, there was a 3rd possible win under Misbah in 2013, at Cape Town where PAK’s last 4 were Ajmal, Irfan, Tanvir & Adil and Ajmal took 10 wickets to win that game, but for the drop catches & some skeptic batting by PAK. But, that Test showed the value of partnership and settled top order – from 34/4, PAK went to 339, backed by a splendid 5th wicket partnership & couple of hundreds. Playing safety first game cost PAK that Cape Town Test – at 110-4 or so, Misbah & Azhar batted for 23-25 overs at 1.7 rate, then Styen cleaned the tail either side of lunch break …. Still it was just about another 50 runs and PAK could have won that Test.
From these 3 Tests, I can categorically say if PAK has to win a Test (or Series), at has to be through penetrative bowling, quality catching and being aggressive on field, both with bat & ball.
Now, coming to the formation, I think the 3 Test venues offer 2 distinct types of playing condition and PAK’s bowling picks has to be on horses for courses basis. And, I can categorically say – J’burg & Centurion are totally different from Durban or PE (may be Durban a bit closer, but it’s on sea level, highlands are like at 2km altitude). Normally, one doesn’t pick batsmen for specific type of condition (that’s best 6/5 batsmen are expected to play regardless of condition), but better teams do pick their bowling combination based on the condition.
FIRST, PAK has to find a pair of solid openers in SAF. They have the best new ball pair, and world’s best 1st change in Rabada – unless PAK’s top 2/3 take out significant part of first 23-25 overs of Kookaburra, even 11 batsmen won’t save PAK from embarrassments. Last time, at J’burg, Styen got Pak half down by 35, it ended at 49. One of the key reasons for PAK suffering in SAF is that, they always picked walking wickets as openers and middle order got exposed too early to new ball. SAF doesn’t have any spinner to trouble PAK much; therefore entire batting strategy should be to reach 55/1 at lunch in 29 overs.
Looking at the options of PAK for openers, I’ll definitely open with Azhar. For his partner, I tend to believe Haris can be better option than Imam, which should allow PAK picking Saad Ali at 6 & Umar Akmal at 5. These openers are being manhandled by 120KM CDG’s swing in UAE – how are they going to manage Styen, Philander in SAF!!!!! BUT, PAK is not going to pick Umar, & FZ might be injured hence
Imam gets one last chance. Also, no way Sarfraz should bat at 7 – he doesn’t have the shots to play with tail, neither the skills to survive 2nd ball – I’ll bat him at 5/6 (#5 only if it’s after 35 overs, otherwise #6).
Another debate is on all-rounder’s role, for which I am a bit confused. Is it like someone batting at no. 6 & 7 by default becomes all-rounder savior and take total to 240 from 75-5? Azhar Mahmood or Imran batted at 7, but that doesn’t mean everyone coming at 6-7 is an all-rounder. If we are depending on runs from bottom half, I’ll play couple of attacking batsmen at 6 & 7, and train 4 bowlers to apply themselves to hang around.
For the 3 Venues, this is my combination
Centurion: It’s a spinners’ grave yard – somehow Shakib got a 6for here, otherwise spinner’s average is 50, and wickets/Test is 4 (that’s like spinners taking 4/200 per Test). I won’t play any spinner at Centurion – 4 pacers & Haris is enough.
XI: Azhar, Imam, Haris, Babar, Asad, Sarfraz, Saad, Amir, Hasan, Afridi, Abbas
Combination: 6-1-4, with Haris expected to bowl 10-12 overs.
There is a chance of Fahim playing, but that as one of 4 pacers, he is just not good enough to bat at 7. If he is to play, he has to take place of one of the 4 pacers on bowling merit, his batting is a bonus.
Cape Town: A specialist spinner is a must here, and I don’t think there is any one even close to Yasir in this regard. Haris should play a vital role as 2nd spinner at Newlands. By that time, if FZ is fit again, he might be a possibility at 6
XI: Azhar, Imam, Haris, Babar, Asad, Sarfraz, Saad/FZ, Yasir, 2 of Amir/Hasan/Afridi, Abbas
Combination: 6-1-4, with Haris expected to bowl 23-25 overs.
Fahim’s position remains same – has to play on bowling merit.
J’burg: It’s the fastest ground in SAF, and unless the wicket is rare (like the last Test against IND), it’s actually quite a good batting track. I think, this is one wicket where PAK might play Fahim, if it’s a typical J’burg track. However, if the track is like the last Test, it’s bang on 4 pacers’ game. I predict wicket to be more like the IND one than the AUS one, therefore my XI is identical of the 1st Test
XI: Azhar, Imam, Haris, Babar, Asad, Sarfraz, Saad/Fakhar, Amir, Hasan, Afridi, Abbas
Combination: 6-1-4, with Haris expected to bowl few overs.
Alternate combination is to play Fahim instead of 6th batsman, but that weakens batting considerably – no way, Shadab should replace Yasir for his batting – either Yasir plays, or no spinner.
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* If I were to pick the squad, I would have picked Umar and batted him at 7, while Haris opens with Azhar and Babar bats at 3.
