Pakistan's Current Account deficit discussion

[Mamoon]

A comparison of PMLN “incompetence” and PTI “tabdeeli”

 

[Forward Defensive Push]

A comparison of PMLN “incompetence” and PTI “tabdeeli”

View attachment 101735

Woah this is eye opening! PTI has been a disappointment so far, but to be fair things were looking positive until corona struck..

 

[Abdullah719]

A comparison of PMLN “incompetence” and PTI “tabdeeli”

View attachment 101735

Reduce exports, increase imports, artificially keep the dollar's value down... also known as short-term, unsustainable growth.

We should have continued with the same tactics and taken the country even closer toward the cliff.

 

[Bewal Express]

Woah this is eye opening! PTI has been a disappointment so far, but to be fair things were looking positive until corona struck..

But give the full context son. You need to be educated to understand context. The context was bankruptcy! The post from [MENTION=133760]Abdullah719[/MENTION] gave you a full picture.

 

[Bewal Express]

Reduce exports, increase imports, artificially keep the dollar's value down... also known as short-term, unsustainable growth.

We should have continued with the same tactics and taken the country even closer toward the cliff.

The guy has no idea about anything he posts, yesterday he criticised the PTI for not allowing imports( at low prices), when i asked him on how he thinks they should be paid for, well you guessed the rest, just evasion and run.

 

[Savak]

Woah this is eye opening! PTI has been a disappointment so far, but to be fair things were looking positive until corona struck..

CPEC was signed by the PPP

 

[MenInG]

Woah this is eye opening! PTI has been a disappointment so far, but to be fair things were looking positive until corona struck..

One of the most basic analysis done by the chest-beating brigade.

I seem to recall a bottle of Coke was about aath anay in Karachi back in 70s... So man things have got so bad!

 

[MenInG]

https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/p...m-agenda-puts-pakistan-among-top-10-improvers

Some more eye openers.

 

[Pakpak]

The guy has no idea about anything he posts, yesterday he criticised the PTI for not allowing imports( at low prices), when i asked him on how he thinks they should be paid for, well you guessed the rest, just evasion and run.

Why is this guy such a coward? I don't get it. If I make bad statements I admit them by saying I stand corrected. That's it.

The guy is a troll, intellectually dishonest and a coward.

 

[Waseem]

Woah this is eye opening! PTI has been a disappointment so far, but to be fair things were looking positive until corona struck..

It is eye opening if you don't analyse the data and simply use the figures which can be deceiving.

If we simply make our judgement based on Growth rate than highest rate in our history were:

7.7 in 2005 under military dictator Pervez Musharaff
10.2 in 1980 under dictator General Zia ul haq
11.3 in 1970 under Yahya Khan
10.4 in 1965 under Ayub Khan

Does it prove that military rules are far better than democratic rule?

Just to give you an idea, PPP govt of 2008-2013 was considered one of the worst, do you know what Current Account deficit they left? $2.5 Billion and do you know where PMLN left? $20 Billion. Now people will claim that CAD means nothing if you are getting growth right? Well if you import $60Billion and export only $20 Billion then how long can you survive for? The GROWTH during PMLN was based on IMPORTS whereas exports DECREASED.

You are sending $60 Billion out of country
Your are getting $20 Billion from exports
Some Dollars earned through remittances (Around $20Billion)
Remaining $20 Billion was used from RESERVES and BORROWED money to keep the balance.

So PTI takes power, they had 2 weeks worth money left to pay INTEREST payments and on the verge of default. No way on earth any country in the world was going to grow at 6% when you had to run to IMF within months right???

Took 2 years to stabilize and now Corona has impacted world economy. Please don't be fooled (although it's very easy under these circumstances).

 

[Forward Defensive Push]

I'm not sure why people are attacking me for just stating a fact! The numbers don't lie. You can provide numerous contexts but the bottomline is I don't see how PTI has done any better than PMLN notwithstanding the corruptions allegations.

 

[Bewal Express]

It is eye opening if you don't analyse the data and simply use the figures which can be deceiving.

If we simply make our judgement based on Growth rate than highest rate in our history were:

7.7 in 2005 under military dictator Pervez Musharaff
10.2 in 1980 under dictator General Zia ul haq
11.3 in 1970 under Yahya Khan
10.4 in 1965 under Ayub Khan

Does it prove that military rules are far better than democratic rule?

Just to give you an idea, PPP govt of 2008-2013 was considered one of the worst, do you know what Current Account deficit they left? $2.5 Billion and do you know where PMLN left? $20 Billion. Now people will claim that CAD means nothing if you are getting growth right? Well if you import $60Billion and export only $20 Billion then how long can you survive for? The GROWTH during PMLN was based on IMPORTS whereas exports DECREASED.

You are sending $60 Billion out of country
Your are getting $20 Billion from exports
Some Dollars earned through remittances (Around $20Billion)
Remaining $20 Billion was used from RESERVES and BORROWED money to keep the balance.

So PTI takes power, they had 2 weeks worth money left to pay INTEREST payments and on the verge of default. No way on earth any country in the world was going to grow at 6% when you had to run to IMF within months right???

Took 2 years to stabilize and now Corona has impacted world economy. Please don't be fooled (although it's very easy under these circumstances).

Hence my question to [MENTION=131701]Mamoon[/MENTION] as how do you pay for imports. And as sure as day follows night, not even a basic answer, never mind a nuanced one.

 

[Syed1]

I'm not sure why people are attacking me for just stating a fact! The numbers don't lie. You can provide numerous contexts but the bottomline is I don't see how PTI has done any better than PMLN notwithstanding the corruptions allegations.

That's because most of those numbers are bogus and elevated, straight out of Maryam Nawaz media cell to which that person subscribes too. Just at the first number PML-N government itself had devalued the ruppee to 125 odd before PTI took over, however this bogus table puts it at 102. After initial depreciation the PTI government had brought the ruppee back to 155 with all signs pointing towards a <150 ruppee to dollar in near future, before corona struck and ruined everything. Every single economy in the world is in negative in this year. US, UK, India, Germany etc etc ALL NEGATIVE.

 

[Thunderbolt14]

[MENTION=131701]Mamoon[/MENTION] simple question, how will you grow exports? Please outline your entire strategy. Much appreciated, thanks.

I will be happy to vote for you instead if you answer this

 

[Waseem]

I'm not sure why people are attacking me for just stating a fact! The numbers don't lie. You can provide numerous contexts but the bottomline is I don't see how PTI has done any better than PMLN notwithstanding the corruptions allegations.

Don't think i attacked you in my post? Just asked you to analyse the figures and didn't even post fake social media pictures, all numbers are from SBP.

 

[Mamoon]

[MENTION=151679]Forward Defensive Push[/MENTION]

COVID-19 is just a convenient excuse for them. Their entire politics is based on blaming others and making tall claims.

If COVID wouldn’t have happened, they would have found another excuse. This government is so shameless that they are now not only blaming the previous governments but also the public and are calling them stupid. Apparently, the same stupid public showed faith in them 2 years ago.

Another issue with PTI is that they have created a simple formula for themselves. If something goes right, they take all the credit; if something goes wrong, they blame PMLN and PPP.

Furthermore, when you ask them what happened to their tabdeeli, they say that it will take time. But “it will take time” means nothing. The reason why they cannot give an estimate is because they do not want to hold themselves accountable.

Nowadays, PTI jokers have memorized a new line: “Rome was not built in a day”

The problem is that Rome was not built by useless nalaik people. These failures cannot build their Rome in 50 years and they will still be crying over the “mess” PMLN and PPP left.

Imran Khan over the last 20+ years got so carried away with hyperbole and tall claims that now he and has government have nowhere to hide.

They did not have a workable, practical mandate and no realistic solutions. These were some of the claims they made during their election campaign:

- We will bring back $200 billion that were looted by Nawaz and Zardari

- I will eliminate corruption from top to bottom

- I will convert PM House and CM House into universities and libraries

- I will make Pakistan so prosperous that people from the West will come here for jobs

- I will put all the corrupt politicians in jail

- People say that you have acquired the same old faces in your party, but when the leader is honest, everyone below him works diligently.

- I will rather commit suicide then beg another country or institution for loans

Do you find any of the above practical? This was his entire political campaign and this what convinced people to do bhangra on the streets with red and green paint on their faces.

PTI supporters now claim that the artificial valuation of Ishaq Dar was unsustainable, but is this circus show of PTI sustainable?

They first championed Asad Umar as some financial guru who will resolve our economic problems, but he was out of his depth that he had to be sacked in 8 months.

He was then replaced by Hafeez Sheikh, a former PPP finance minister. At one hand, Imran claims that PPP looted the country and on the other hand, he hires a PPP finance minister to resolve our economic issues.

Hafeez Sheikh is either corrupt or incompetent. If he knew about Zardari looting wealth and he stayed quiet to protect his position, that makes him corrupt.

If he didn’t know about Zardari looting wealth, what sort of finance minister was he? That makes him incompetent.

The nation is tired of this government crying about others. It has been 2 years and there doesn’t seem to be an end to their wailing.

One day they will cry about PMLN/PPP, the next day they will cry about the “mafia” even though the mafia leaders are Imran’s buddies,

The next day they will cry about the judiciary who always seem to get in the way of their tabdeeli,

The next day they will blame the public for being ignorant and stupid,

The next day Imran’s tongue will slip and they will say please don’t criticize him his tongue just slipped. Not a big deal.

The bottom-line is that PTI is a busted tyre. They have appointed some absolute morons as key ministers and these people can do anything but bring tabdeeli.

The end result is that it is a disjointed, confused, chaotic party with no future. It will last as long as Imran is alive.

There is no chemistry or coordination from top to bottom. You have a delusional leader at the bottom who lives in a whole of his own, and an assortment of opportunistic, failed politicians who are serving their interests and who jumped on the tabdeeli bandwagon for personal interests.

 

[Mamoon]

[MENTION=131701]Mamoon[/MENTION] simple question, how will you grow exports? Please outline your entire strategy. Much appreciated, thanks.

I will be happy to vote for you instead if you answer this

There is only one solution. Pakistan will have to modernize its industries and move on from seasonal, agriculture produce to high tech exports.

This will not be achieved with some Digital Pakistan drama, a name that we picked up from Modi’s Digital India move.

This will be achieved through the type of economic liberation that we saw in India in 1991.

This will only be achieved in Pakistan if we start focusing on building competencies. When you look at the PTI government and the type of dunces that are holding key ministries, it is clear that competency means nothing to Imran Khan.

Whoever does the most intense bhangra to his statements and whoever abuses the opposition the most is the one who gets the Ministry.

If he was focused on competencies, nalaik people like Murad Saeed, Firdous Awan, Fawad Chaudhry, Zartaj Gul, Sheikh Rasheed etc. etc. would not be holding ministries.

Economic development is not achieved through the ministry of finance only. It is the collective output of all the sectors.

The biggest stumbling block for Pakistan is not corruption. It is the interference and the involvement of military in everything non-military.

Our military has a business empire worth billions and they have a stake in everything. It is the only military in the world that is not only expert in war and security but they are also expert in agriculture, manufacturing, sports, civil aviation, construction projects, media and entertainment.

Since they have their fingers in every pie, they cannot afford to witness the type of economic boom that we saw in India in the 90’s that resulted in significant privatization.

 

[last_knight]

I'm not sure why people are attacking me for just stating a fact! The numbers don't lie. You can provide numerous contexts but the bottomline is I don't see how PTI has done any better than PMLN notwithstanding the corruptions allegations.

In cricketing terms, PTI started batting after PMLn,PPP followed on in 1st innings. They will earn a Lead only after overtaking the first innings deficit.

Bottomline is PMLn + PPP put a Big Hole in boat everytime before jumping out of it.

 

[Mamoon]

Cult-followers say that the current account deficit would have killed us, but the problem is leveling the current account deficit has killed us.

 

[last_knight]

Cult-followers say that the current account deficit would have killed us, but the problem is leveling the current account deficit has killed us.

CAD doesn't kill, it just makes one a Slave.
Levelling it means it can't get worse from thereafter.

 

[Bewal Express]

Cult-followers say that the current account deficit would have killed us, but the problem is leveling the current account deficit has killed us.

Maybe the Noora mafia cell doesn't give you the answers after Abdullah destroyed you earlier, it would have bankrupted PK. So tell us how you fund the deficits, or is it too complicated for you.

 

[Bewal Express]

CAD doesn't kill, it just makes one a Slave.
Levelling it means it can't get worse from thereafter.

You are talking to someone who is totally illiterate.

 

[Bewal Express]

There is only one solution. Pakistan will have to modernize its industries and move on from seasonal, agriculture produce to high tech exports.

This will not be achieved with some Digital Pakistan drama, a name that we picked up from Modi’s Digital India move.

This will be achieved through the type of economic liberation that we saw in India in 1991.

This will only be achieved in Pakistan if we start focusing on building competencies. When you look at the PTI government and the type of dunces that are holding key ministries, it is clear that competency means nothing to Imran Khan.

Whoever does the most intense bhangra to his statements and whoever abuses the opposition the most is the one who gets the Ministry.

If he was focused on competencies, nalaik people like Murad Saeed, Firdous Awan, Fawad Chaudhry, Zartaj Gul, Sheikh Rasheed etc. etc. would not be holding ministries.

Economic development is not achieved through the ministry of finance only. It is the collective output of all the sectors.

The biggest stumbling block for Pakistan is not corruption. It is the interference and the involvement of military in everything non-military.

Our military has a business empire worth billions and they have a stake in everything. It is the only military in the world that is not only expert in war and security but they are also expert in agriculture, manufacturing, sports, civil aviation, construction projects, media and entertainment.

Since they have their fingers in every pie, they cannot afford to witness the type of economic boom that we saw in India in the 90’s that resulted in significant privatization.

Before anything can be done you to let local industry compete and that means a competitive exchange rate. So tell us why the Nooras used Dollars to keep it artificially high?

 

[Bewal Express]

In cricketing terms, PTI started batting after PMLn,PPP followed on in 1st innings. They will earn a Lead only after overtaking the first innings deficit.

Bottomline is PMLn + PPP put a Big Hole in boat everytime before jumping out of it.

It's easy to destroy than to build. It takes years to build something but a few min to destroy. They were only concerned with looting and this destroyed our sustainable economy. We ended up relying on loans and imports to drive our growth.

 

[Bewal Express]

[MENTION=151679]Forward Defensive Push[/MENTION]

COVID-19 is just a convenient excuse for them. Their entire politics is based on blaming others and making tall claims.

If COVID wouldn’t have happened, they would have found another excuse. This government is so shameless that they are now not only blaming the previous governments but also the public and are calling them stupid. Apparently, the same stupid public showed faith in them 2 years ago.

Another issue with PTI is that they have created a simple formula for themselves. If something goes right, they take all the credit; if something goes wrong, they blame PMLN and PPP.

Furthermore, when you ask them what happened to their tabdeeli, they say that it will take time. But “it will take time” means nothing. The reason why they cannot give an estimate is because they do not want to hold themselves accountable.

Nowadays, PTI jokers have memorized a new line: “Rome was not built in a day”

The problem is that Rome was not built by useless nalaik people. These failures cannot build their Rome in 50 years and they will still be crying over the “mess” PMLN and PPP left.

Imran Khan over the last 20+ years got so carried away with hyperbole and tall claims that now he and has government have nowhere to hide.

They did not have a workable, practical mandate and no realistic solutions. These were some of the claims they made during their election campaign:

- We will bring back $200 billion that were looted by Nawaz and Zardari

- I will eliminate corruption from top to bottom

- I will convert PM House and CM House into universities and libraries

- I will make Pakistan so prosperous that people from the West will come here for jobs

- I will put all the corrupt politicians in jail

- People say that you have acquired the same old faces in your party, but when the leader is honest, everyone below him works diligently.

- I will rather commit suicide then beg another country or institution for loans

Do you find any of the above practical? This was his entire political campaign and this what convinced people to do bhangra on the streets with red and green paint on their faces.

PTI supporters now claim that the artificial valuation of Ishaq Dar was unsustainable, but is this circus show of PTI sustainable?

They first championed Asad Umar as some financial guru who will resolve our economic problems, but he was out of his depth that he had to be sacked in 8 months.

He was then replaced by Hafeez Sheikh, a former PPP finance minister. At one hand, Imran claims that PPP looted the country and on the other hand, he hires a PPP finance minister to resolve our economic issues.

Hafeez Sheikh is either corrupt or incompetent. If he knew about Zardari looting wealth and he stayed quiet to protect his position, that makes him corrupt.

If he didn’t know about Zardari looting wealth, what sort of finance minister was he? That makes him incompetent.

The nation is tired of this government crying about others. It has been 2 years and there doesn’t seem to be an end to their wailing.

One day they will cry about PMLN/PPP, the next day they will cry about the “mafia” even though the mafia leaders are Imran’s buddies,

The next day they will cry about the judiciary who always seem to get in the way of their tabdeeli,

The next day they will blame the public for being ignorant and stupid,

The next day Imran’s tongue will slip and they will say please don’t criticize him his tongue just slipped. Not a big deal.

The bottom-line is that PTI is a busted tyre. They have appointed some absolute morons as key ministers and these people can do anything but bring tabdeeli.

The end result is that it is a disjointed, confused, chaotic party with no future. It will last as long as Imran is alive.

There is no chemistry or coordination from top to bottom. You have a delusional leader at the bottom who lives in a whole of his own, and an assortment of opportunistic, failed politicians who are serving their interests and who jumped on the tabdeeli bandwagon for personal interests.

Own your mess, but we will sort it like we have started to with PSM, IPPS and PIA, along with your budget and CAD deficits.

 

[Mamoon]

CAD doesn't kill, it just makes one a Slave.
Levelling it means it can't get worse from thereafter.

Yes sir I am eagerly awaiting the day we will become masters under Imran.

If you think we cannot get worse, you are underestimating the incompetence of this government. Never before have such jokers been unleashed on the country.

But it’s okay, it will still be PMLN and PPP’s fault.

 

[Mamoon]

Own your mess, but we will sort it like we have started to with PSM, IPPS and PIA, along with your budget and CAD deficits.

We? Who are we? You weren’t even allowed to vote.

And we have seen what the results of PTI “sorting out” looks like. I am seeing it in KP since 2013.

These good for nothing charlatans can only abuse and create hype.

 

[Bewal Express]

We? Who are we? You weren’t even allowed to vote.

And we have seen what the results of PTI “sorting out” looks like. I am seeing it in KP since 2013.

These good for nothing charlatans can only abuse and create hype.

We are the ones that help to provide $25bn for thick Nooras to import stuff as they don't know how to pay for imports. You do know that imports have to be paid for or do you think they are free?

 

[Bewal Express]

Yes sir I am eagerly awaiting the day we will become masters under Imran.

If you think we cannot get worse, you are underestimating the incompetence of this government. Never before have such jokers been unleashed on the country.

But it’s okay, it will still be PMLN and PPP’s fault.

You won't become anything, your ghulami of the mafia means that you are slave for life. The only decision for you is to decide who to worship, is it Billo James or Calibri Nani? It's a tough decision!

 

[last_knight]

If you think we cannot get worse, you are underestimating the incompetence of this government.

I said thereafter . Why you want to think I said hereafter ?

 

[Mamoon]

I said thereafter . Why you want to think I said hereafter ?

Because there is no reason to be optimistic.

 

[khanz141]

Because there is no reason to be optimistic.

I am surprised you even know the word 'optimistic'

 

[Syed1]

We? Who are we? You weren’t even allowed to vote.

And we have seen what the results of PTI “sorting out” looks like. I am seeing it in KP since 2013.

These good for nothing charlatans can only abuse and create hype.

If you knew it since 2013 then why did you vote for them in 2018?


If they did so bad, why did the people of KPK give them 2/3rd majority in 2018?


Now run.

 

[King-Misbah]

If you knew it since 2013 then why did you vote for them in 2018?


If they did so bad, why did the people of KPK give them 2/3rd majority in 2018?


Now run.

He is absolutely pathetic! In the UK, our economy will shrink and our GDP is down by over 20% in this quarter. Our unemployment rate is going to double. I read above that corona is an excuse #FacePalm. I have not seen a more morally dishonest person in my life. I try to not even bother reading his troll posts.

 

[Abdullah719]

Pakistan’s BOP position to improve on back of low trade deficit, remittances; Study

Pakistan’s Balance of Payment position is set to improve, on the back of reduction in the trade deficit and remittance inflows, said BCA Research in its latest research.

The Canadian research firm BCA Research in its study titled ‘BCA Overweight View in Pakistan Equities,’ said that the country’s trade deficit will shrink further, as Pakistan’s export will likely improve more than its imports.

Pakistan’s total exports declined 6.8 percent year-on-year in June, which is a considerable improvement as compared to the massive 54pc and 33pc contractions that occurred in April and May, respectively.

The report was of the view that as the number of daily new cases and deaths are falling, the country is likely to remain open, lowering the odds of a domestic supply disruption. In addition, as DM growth recovers, the demand for Pakistani products will improve as well. Europe and the US together account for about 54pc of Pakistan’s exports.

BCA expects that the government will likely approve the textile industry’s request for supportive measures, including access to competitively priced energy, a lower sales tax rate, quick refunds, and a reduction of the turnover tax rate to boost the performance of the domestic textile sector.

Furthermore, the government has prepared an incentive package for the global promotion of the country’s information technology (IT) sector, aiming to increase IT service exports from the current level of US$1 billion to US$10 billion by 2023.

Regarding Pakistan’s imports, low oil prices will help reduce the country’s import bill year-on-year over the next six months, opined the report.

Talking about Pakistan’s remittance inflows, the report said that even though about half of the remittances sent to Pakistan are from oil-producing regions like Saudi Arabia, UAE, Oman, and Qatar, low oil prices may only have a limited impact on Pakistan’s remittance inflows.

At the same time, the government has planned various measures to boost remittances. For example, a “national remittance loyalty program” will be launched on September 1, 2020, in which various incentives would be given to remitters.

https://www.brecorder.com/news/4000...n-back-of-low-trade-deficit-remittances-study

 

[Abdullah719]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">This strong turnaround is a result of continuing recovery in exports, which rose 20 % compared to June 2020, & record remittances.</p>— Imran Khan (@ImranKhanPTI) <a href="https://twitter.com/ImranKhanPTI/status/1297760073834467328?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 24, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[Pakpak]

Fantastic, what leaders do when you don't have leaches looting you.

 

[Bewal Express]

Great news, keep working to get exports up. For textiles the cost of electricity is a big problem, so why not work with them so that they can generate their own electricity

 

[Syed1]

Leken Imran Khan ne do saal mein kya kar liya... I miss my Nawaj not so Sharif

 

[the Great Khan]

again, the point has been made. Its not rocket science. IK hasnt done anything that has not been seen in other countries or hasnt been talked about amongst economists everywhere. He has stuck to the basics and managed to pull things around (obviously alot more needs to happen).

However the key thing to question is, if IK can do this with not much govt experience behind him or his team, what were our previous govts doing for 30 odd years? I mean truly? as I have said before it is not just about corruption it is about downright treason.

The zardaris and sharifs should be hung in front of the people..

 

[Pakpak]

again, the point has been made. Its not rocket science. IK hasnt done anything that has not been seen in other countries or hasnt been talked about amongst economists everywhere. He has stuck to the basics and managed to pull things around (obviously alot more needs to happen).

However the key thing to question is, if IK can do this with not much govt experience behind him or his team, what were our previous govts doing for 30 odd years? I mean truly? as I have said before it is not just about corruption it is about downright treason.

The zardaris and sharifs should be hung in front of the people..

Treason is the correct statement. They have ruined millions of lives, millions of households who died because of no money or food or healthcare because these leeches were busy looting the coffers. Deserve to rot.

 

[the Great Khan]

Treason is the correct statement. They have ruined millions of lives, millions of households who died because of no money or food or healthcare because these leeches were busy looting the coffers. Deserve to rot.

to this day I'm flabbergasted that we don't discuss this? IK has performed better than all these govts combined. Why? he isnt a miracle worker..they have betrayed this nation and must be tried for treason.
Unfortuantley they have fooled enough people to ever get this punishment in this life..Allah swt will deal with them now.

 

[ahmedzee]

A country progresses only by exporting more than it imports. There is no other way about it. Some PTI haters like Mamoon might find it hard to accept this.

During PMLN and PPP (even in the 90s and 80s) imports substantially increased while exports was lowered. If it wasn't for Musharraf and his US agreement post 9/11 back then, we would've defaulted, there is no doubt in my mind.

 

[Syed1]

Imran needs a minimum 10-15 years to take us to where ASEAN countries are right now.


If only elections had not been stolen from him in 2013, he would have had a much better place to start from. Despite all of PPP's corruption and mismanagement they did leave the economy in an ok state, not ideal but salvageable. Heck the CAD they had for a year was equivalent to what Nooras had in a month in the Nooras last year. What Nooras did to the country is not borderline treason it is full treason. No wonder Mian Saanp was inviting Hindutva Modi to his grand daughter's wedding and having kitty parties with Jindal in Murree.


I can't believe there are still millions of people like Mamoon who support them. Corruption might be a drug opiate then meth, heroine, cocaine etc.

 

[chinaman00]

There is only one solution. Pakistan will have to modernize its industries and move on from seasonal, agriculture produce to high tech exports.

This will not be achieved with some Digital Pakistan drama, a name that we picked up from Modi’s Digital India move.

This will be achieved through the type of economic liberation that we saw in India in 1991.

This will only be achieved in Pakistan if we start focusing on building competencies. When you look at the PTI government and the type of dunces that are holding key ministries, it is clear that competency means nothing to Imran Khan.

Whoever does the most intense bhangra to his statements and whoever abuses the opposition the most is the one who gets the Ministry.

If he was focused on competencies, nalaik people like Murad Saeed, Firdous Awan, Fawad Chaudhry, Zartaj Gul, Sheikh Rasheed etc. etc. would not be holding ministries.

Economic development is not achieved through the ministry of finance only. It is the collective output of all the sectors.

The biggest stumbling block for Pakistan is not corruption. It is the interference and the involvement of military in everything non-military.

Our military has a business empire worth billions and they have a stake in everything. It is the only military in the world that is not only expert in war and security but they are also expert in agriculture, manufacturing, sports, civil aviation, construction projects, media and entertainment.

Since they have their fingers in every pie, they cannot afford to witness the type of economic boom that we saw in India in the 90’s that resulted in significant privatization.

I generally disagree with you; but you're absolutely correct regarding the highlighted parts. I don't understand why Pakistan hasn't liberalized its economy, followed the winning paths charted by India and China, and stopped these useless subsidies for the agriculture and other underperforming sectors. For example, Indonesia and Pakistan are roughly the same size in terms of population but one has annual exports of around $200-billion and the other has exports of about $24-billion.

Pakistan's industrial sector has to see revolutionary growth for the next 5-10 years for it to even achieve a respectable parity with its peers and i am not sure if this could be done through special economic zones; as you said, problems are much more structural and quick flashy fixes the sorts PTI is known for, wouldn't suffice.

The depressing reality is that the PTI is really Pakistan's best hope. PML is corrupt to the core and the less said about the PPP, the better.

 

[Abdullah719]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">1/2 Current Account Balance (CAB) turned into a surplus for the second consecutive month in August 2020 led by an impressive growth in workers’ remittances and lower import payment. CAB surplus amounted to $508 mn and $297 mn during July and August 2020: <a href="https://t.co/Od8ikVvpBF">https://t.co/Od8ikVvpBF</a></p>— SBP (@StateBank_Pak) <a href="https://twitter.com/StateBank_Pak/status/1308635186922430464?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 23, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[Abdullah719]

Pakistan’s C/A post surplus for third successive month on back of remittance & exports

Pakistan’s current account posted a surplus for a third successive month in September, revealed the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Wednesday.

As per the data released by the central bank, the surplus reached $73 million against a deficit of $278 million a year earlier. As a result, the current account recorded a surplus of $792 million in Q1-FY21, the first quarterly surplus in more than 5 years.

On the development, Prime Minister Imran Khan said that Pakistan is heading in the right direction.

In a tweet on Wednesday, he said “the current account was in surplus of $73mn during September bringing surplus for the first quarter to $792mn compared to a deficit of $1,492mn during the same time last year.”

The Prime Minister said exports grew 29pc and remittances 9pc during the previous month.

Meanwhile, the SBP was of the view that continued buoyancy in remittances (up 9 percent m/m) and a broad-based rebound in exports (up 29pc m/m) drove the current account surplus in September. “Imports also picked up in line with the on-going revival in domestic economic activity,” it added.

Meanwhile, the Balance on Trade in Goods during the first quarter remained at negative $5.252 billion as compared to negative $5.048bn recorded in the same period last year. The deficit in services fell by 50pc to $530mn in the first quarter and the revenue deficit increased by 7pc to $1.52bn.

According to the SBP, worker remittances from July to September rose 31 percent to $7.14bn, up $1.69bn from the previous fiscal year.

Furthermore, the Current Account percentage of GDP stood at 1.2pc in the first quarter as compared to negative 2.3pc in the same period last year.

https://www.brecorder.com/news/4002...uccessive-month-on-back-of-remittance-exports

 

[JaDed]

Pakistan’s C/A post surplus for third successive month on back of remittance & exports

Pakistan’s current account posted a surplus for a third successive month in September, revealed the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Wednesday.

As per the data released by the central bank, the surplus reached $73 million against a deficit of $278 million a year earlier. As a result, the current account recorded a surplus of $792 million in Q1-FY21, the first quarterly surplus in more than 5 years.

On the development, Prime Minister Imran Khan said that Pakistan is heading in the right direction.

In a tweet on Wednesday, he said “the current account was in surplus of $73mn during September bringing surplus for the first quarter to $792mn compared to a deficit of $1,492mn during the same time last year.”

The Prime Minister said exports grew 29pc and remittances 9pc during the previous month.

Meanwhile, the SBP was of the view that continued buoyancy in remittances (up 9 percent m/m) and a broad-based rebound in exports (up 29pc m/m) drove the current account surplus in September. “Imports also picked up in line with the on-going revival in domestic economic activity,” it added.

Meanwhile, the Balance on Trade in Goods during the first quarter remained at negative $5.252 billion as compared to negative $5.048bn recorded in the same period last year. The deficit in services fell by 50pc to $530mn in the first quarter and the revenue deficit increased by 7pc to $1.52bn.

According to the SBP, worker remittances from July to September rose 31 percent to $7.14bn, up $1.69bn from the previous fiscal year.

Furthermore, the Current Account percentage of GDP stood at 1.2pc in the first quarter as compared to negative 2.3pc in the same period last year.

https://www.brecorder.com/news/4002...uccessive-month-on-back-of-remittance-exports

Does the delay in loan payment help this as well, I’m not well versed thats why am just asking?

 

[Savak]

Lol, the only few things the opposition highlights is inflation and political victimization, they will not talk about these figures except to say that the economy is in recession because of an aggressive curtailment of imports which is crippling the local industries.

 

[Syed1]

Dollar dropped below 162, at 161.80 today. Risen from around 168 on the back of current account surplus. I hope gets back to pre-covid level of 155.



Selected Niazi isteefa do!

 

[Savak]

Time to end the spin

Khurram Husain

Updated 22 Oct 2020

THERE is this pesky thing about reality — it always finds a way to assert itself. You can muzzle it, deny it and spin it away but it will always catch up with you eventually. Perhaps that’s why we call it reality, because it doesn’t go away simply because somebody in a position of power or influence orders it to go away. And for any ruler there are two realities that simply cannot be muzzled, denied or spun away: economics and war.

Take one example of how reality is being spun to try and put a little shine on things. On Wednesday, when the rest of the country was still debating the fallout of the Karachi jalsa, the prime minister tweeted the following: “Great news for Pakistan. We are headed in right direction finally. Current Account was in surplus of $73 mn during Sept, bringing surplus for 1st qtr to $792 mn compared to deficit of $1,492 mn during same time last yr. Exports grew 29pc & remittances grew 9pc over previous month.”

This is spin, pure and simple, and there is an easy way to show that. Look at how the data is presented. For the current account balance (which is in surplus) the data is compared to the same period last year. For exports and remittances — the two key elements in the current account — the data is compared to the preceding months. The impression this creates is one of overall improvement.

But let’s invert this presentation for a moment and see what happens. Let’s compare the current account balance to the preceding months and remittances and exports to the same period last year instead and see what happens.

In July, August and September, the three months under discussion, the current account balance was in surplus by $508 million, $211m and $72m respectively. In case you missed the significance, on a month-to-month basis the surplus is actually shrinking, and rather rapidly. Let’s discuss why a little later.

Next up, if you compare exports and remittances in the month of September from the same month last year, you will notice that exports rose this year by $72m, or 3.8 per cent of their value last year. This is not exactly a triumphant increase. Remittances in the month of September saw an increase of $544m from last year, or just above 31pc.

The thing to note in the data is the $417m increase in the trade deficit in September, which is almost 29pc, or just about the same as the increase in remittances. It is not clear whether or not this increase in remittances owes itself to any government policy yet, so let’s wait before celebrating it as a major triumph of any sort, but we can note this simple reality: the remittances are financing the trade deficit.

Notice how the shine goes off the numbers if you invert the manner in which they are presented. The current account was helped along by a near collapse in imports during the months of the Covid-19 lockdowns, and now that those are receding, oil prices are regaining their earlier levels, the surplus that was posted in July and August is shrinking.

The bigger point is that nothing in the underlying economy has changed so if the government guns for growth at this point the current account deficit will reappear with a vengeance.

Anytime you see any government loudly celebrating individual data points, telling you to rejoice because reserves are up this week or the current account deficit is down, or whatever, you can be sure that they have no real story of success to tell and are leaping from one data release to the other as if they are stepping stones that actually lead somewhere. If you look at all the data points that they have invoked in the past and urged us to rejoice, you will realise that the story of the economy is not going anywhere as of right now.

I have said it in the past and it bears repeating: deficit reduction is not the key here. Of course deficits need to be reduced when an economy has depleted its foreign exchange reserves or blown all its fiscal buffers to the point where its debt levels have hit unsustainable heights. Where exactly that point lies is a subjective judgement though.

There are examples from our very own neighbourhood of countries that have persistently run deficits in their fiscal and current accounts for almost three decades now without depleting their reserves (or at least nowhere near as often as Pakistan has) and without blowing out their fiscal balance sheet. India and Bangladesh stand out as examples, as to a lesser extent Sri Lanka and Nepal too.

In Pakistan what matters is what we do after the deficits have been reduced. Every government in the past 30 years has begun its term in office by reducing the current account deficit, and in some cases, the scale of the reduction has been larger than what the current government is boasting. There is nothing unusual in this. It happens every time in the first year of an IMF programme. Perhaps the only unusual thing for this government is that it will have two first years of an IMF programme in two years, given they are about to negotiate a return to the programme and present a circular debt reduction plan as well as a tax plan for the ongoing fiscal year.

The reality is that this government is adrift. There is no vision at play, whether for tax reform or on state-owned enterprises. We are told something has been developed for the power sector, but the test of this plan will be their ability to arrest and reduce the circular debt without recourse to tariff hikes.

Reality is asserting itself now, in the data as well as the streets. Time to end the rhetoric.

The writer is a member of staff.

khurram.husain@gmail.com

Link: https://www.dawn.com/news/1586413

Comments: A very hard hitting article, what do people over here think and how would they critique, respond to the author if they wanted to?

 

[Syed1]

Time to end the spin

Khurram Husain

Updated 22 Oct 2020

THERE is this pesky thing about reality — it always finds a way to assert itself. You can muzzle it, deny it and spin it away but it will always catch up with you eventually. Perhaps that’s why we call it reality, because it doesn’t go away simply because somebody in a position of power or influence orders it to go away. And for any ruler there are two realities that simply cannot be muzzled, denied or spun away: economics and war.

Take one example of how reality is being spun to try and put a little shine on things. On Wednesday, when the rest of the country was still debating the fallout of the Karachi jalsa, the prime minister tweeted the following: “Great news for Pakistan. We are headed in right direction finally. Current Account was in surplus of $73 mn during Sept, bringing surplus for 1st qtr to $792 mn compared to deficit of $1,492 mn during same time last yr. Exports grew 29pc & remittances grew 9pc over previous month.”

This is spin, pure and simple, and there is an easy way to show that. Look at how the data is presented. For the current account balance (which is in surplus) the data is compared to the same period last year. For exports and remittances — the two key elements in the current account — the data is compared to the preceding months. The impression this creates is one of overall improvement.

But let’s invert this presentation for a moment and see what happens. Let’s compare the current account balance to the preceding months and remittances and exports to the same period last year instead and see what happens.

In July, August and September, the three months under discussion, the current account balance was in surplus by $508 million, $211m and $72m respectively. In case you missed the significance, on a month-to-month basis the surplus is actually shrinking, and rather rapidly. Let’s discuss why a little later.

Next up, if you compare exports and remittances in the month of September from the same month last year, you will notice that exports rose this year by $72m, or 3.8 per cent of their value last year. This is not exactly a triumphant increase. Remittances in the month of September saw an increase of $544m from last year, or just above 31pc.

The thing to note in the data is the $417m increase in the trade deficit in September, which is almost 29pc, or just about the same as the increase in remittances. It is not clear whether or not this increase in remittances owes itself to any government policy yet, so let’s wait before celebrating it as a major triumph of any sort, but we can note this simple reality: the remittances are financing the trade deficit.

Notice how the shine goes off the numbers if you invert the manner in which they are presented. The current account was helped along by a near collapse in imports during the months of the Covid-19 lockdowns, and now that those are receding, oil prices are regaining their earlier levels, the surplus that was posted in July and August is shrinking.

The bigger point is that nothing in the underlying economy has changed so if the government guns for growth at this point the current account deficit will reappear with a vengeance.

Anytime you see any government loudly celebrating individual data points, telling you to rejoice because reserves are up this week or the current account deficit is down, or whatever, you can be sure that they have no real story of success to tell and are leaping from one data release to the other as if they are stepping stones that actually lead somewhere. If you look at all the data points that they have invoked in the past and urged us to rejoice, you will realise that the story of the economy is not going anywhere as of right now.

I have said it in the past and it bears repeating: deficit reduction is not the key here. Of course deficits need to be reduced when an economy has depleted its foreign exchange reserves or blown all its fiscal buffers to the point where its debt levels have hit unsustainable heights. Where exactly that point lies is a subjective judgement though.

There are examples from our very own neighbourhood of countries that have persistently run deficits in their fiscal and current accounts for almost three decades now without depleting their reserves (or at least nowhere near as often as Pakistan has) and without blowing out their fiscal balance sheet. India and Bangladesh stand out as examples, as to a lesser extent Sri Lanka and Nepal too.

In Pakistan what matters is what we do after the deficits have been reduced. Every government in the past 30 years has begun its term in office by reducing the current account deficit, and in some cases, the scale of the reduction has been larger than what the current government is boasting. There is nothing unusual in this. It happens every time in the first year of an IMF programme. Perhaps the only unusual thing for this government is that it will have two first years of an IMF programme in two years, given they are about to negotiate a return to the programme and present a circular debt reduction plan as well as a tax plan for the ongoing fiscal year.

The reality is that this government is adrift. There is no vision at play, whether for tax reform or on state-owned enterprises. We are told something has been developed for the power sector, but the test of this plan will be their ability to arrest and reduce the circular debt without recourse to tariff hikes.

Reality is asserting itself now, in the data as well as the streets. Time to end the rhetoric.

The writer is a member of staff.

khurram.husain@gmail.com

Link: https://www.dawn.com/news/1586413

Comments: A very hard hitting article, what do people over here think and how would they critique, respond to the author if they wanted to?

Khurram Hussain is a lifafa journalist. A couple of months ago he was trying to argue that current account deficits are good for the economy. He has zero credibility. No one takes him or his "hard hitting articles" seriously.

 

[Bewal Express]

Time to end the spin

Khurram Husain

Updated 22 Oct 2020

THERE is this pesky thing about reality — it always finds a way to assert itself. You can muzzle it, deny it and spin it away but it will always catch up with you eventually. Perhaps that’s why we call it reality, because it doesn’t go away simply because somebody in a position of power or influence orders it to go away. And for any ruler there are two realities that simply cannot be muzzled, denied or spun away: economics and war.

Take one example of how reality is being spun to try and put a little shine on things. On Wednesday, when the rest of the country was still debating the fallout of the Karachi jalsa, the prime minister tweeted the following: “Great news for Pakistan. We are headed in right direction finally. Current Account was in surplus of $73 mn during Sept, bringing surplus for 1st qtr to $792 mn compared to deficit of $1,492 mn during same time last yr. Exports grew 29pc & remittances grew 9pc over previous month.”

This is spin, pure and simple, and there is an easy way to show that. Look at how the data is presented. For the current account balance (which is in surplus) the data is compared to the same period last year. For exports and remittances — the two key elements in the current account — the data is compared to the preceding months. The impression this creates is one of overall improvement.

But let’s invert this presentation for a moment and see what happens. Let’s compare the current account balance to the preceding months and remittances and exports to the same period last year instead and see what happens.

In July, August and September, the three months under discussion, the current account balance was in surplus by $508 million, $211m and $72m respectively. In case you missed the significance, on a month-to-month basis the surplus is actually shrinking, and rather rapidly. Let’s discuss why a little later.

Next up, if you compare exports and remittances in the month of September from the same month last year, you will notice that exports rose this year by $72m, or 3.8 per cent of their value last year. This is not exactly a triumphant increase. Remittances in the month of September saw an increase of $544m from last year, or just above 31pc.

The thing to note in the data is the $417m increase in the trade deficit in September, which is almost 29pc, or just about the same as the increase in remittances. It is not clear whether or not this increase in remittances owes itself to any government policy yet, so let’s wait before celebrating it as a major triumph of any sort, but we can note this simple reality: the remittances are financing the trade deficit.

Notice how the shine goes off the numbers if you invert the manner in which they are presented. The current account was helped along by a near collapse in imports during the months of the Covid-19 lockdowns, and now that those are receding, oil prices are regaining their earlier levels, the surplus that was posted in July and August is shrinking.

The bigger point is that nothing in the underlying economy has changed so if the government guns for growth at this point the current account deficit will reappear with a vengeance.

Anytime you see any government loudly celebrating individual data points, telling you to rejoice because reserves are up this week or the current account deficit is down, or whatever, you can be sure that they have no real story of success to tell and are leaping from one data release to the other as if they are stepping stones that actually lead somewhere. If you look at all the data points that they have invoked in the past and urged us to rejoice, you will realise that the story of the economy is not going anywhere as of right now.

I have said it in the past and it bears repeating: deficit reduction is not the key here. Of course deficits need to be reduced when an economy has depleted its foreign exchange reserves or blown all its fiscal buffers to the point where its debt levels have hit unsustainable heights. Where exactly that point lies is a subjective judgement though.

There are examples from our very own neighbourhood of countries that have persistently run deficits in their fiscal and current accounts for almost three decades now without depleting their reserves (or at least nowhere near as often as Pakistan has) and without blowing out their fiscal balance sheet. India and Bangladesh stand out as examples, as to a lesser extent Sri Lanka and Nepal too.

In Pakistan what matters is what we do after the deficits have been reduced. Every government in the past 30 years has begun its term in office by reducing the current account deficit, and in some cases, the scale of the reduction has been larger than what the current government is boasting. There is nothing unusual in this. It happens every time in the first year of an IMF programme. Perhaps the only unusual thing for this government is that it will have two first years of an IMF programme in two years, given they are about to negotiate a return to the programme and present a circular debt reduction plan as well as a tax plan for the ongoing fiscal year.

The reality is that this government is adrift. There is no vision at play, whether for tax reform or on state-owned enterprises. We are told something has been developed for the power sector, but the test of this plan will be their ability to arrest and reduce the circular debt without recourse to tariff hikes.

Reality is asserting itself now, in the data as well as the streets. Time to end the rhetoric.

The writer is a member of staff.

khurram.husain@gmail.com

Link: https://www.dawn.com/news/1586413

Comments: A very hard hitting article, what do people over here think and how would they critique, respond to the author if they wanted to?

Look at this lifafas old tweets and then look at his writing recently and you see that $ are not coming anymore

 

[Abdullah719]

Pakistan records current account surplus for fourth consecutive month

The country’s current account witnessed a surplus for the fourth consecutive month in October, rising to $382 million or 1.6 per cent of the gross domestic product (GDP), data released by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) showed on Thursday.

Compared to the same month last year, the surplus witnessed an increase of 423pc from $73m, while on a month-on-month basis it was up 547pc versus the $59m recorded in September.

“The surplus came on the back of a sustained increase in remittances and a smaller trade deficit,” the central bank said.

Since the start of this fiscal year in July, the cumulative current account surplus has reached $1.2 billion, reversing the $1.4bn deficit recorded in the same period last year, the SBP added.

“The current account recorded a fourth consecutive monthly surplus in October […] an improvement was witnessed on account of better trade deficit as imports declined by 9pc month-on-month compared to exports increasing one per cent month-on-month,” said Syed Atif Zafar, chief economist at Topline Securities.

“Remittances also remained healthy at $2.28bn,” he added.

On a monthly basis, the trade deficit in October narrowed by 20pc to $1.49bn from $1.86bn in September. Remittances during the month clocked in at $2.284bn, unchanged from the previous month.

The country’s current account has been helped by a significant increase in remittances during the current fiscal year.

So far, in the four-month period from July to October, total inflows of remittances have risen to $9.43bn — up 26.5pc — compared to $7.45bn in the same period last year.

On the other hand, during the same July-October period, the country’s trade balance in goods has risen four per cent to $6.74bn from $6.48bn during the same period last year; the services trade balance narrowed 38pc to $785m compared to $1.27bn.

Reacting to this development, Minister for Industries and Production Hammad Azhar said “Pakistan’s economy continues to improve”.

“The trade deficit continues to shrink and industrial production is showing strong growth,” he said.

Federal Minister for Planning and Development Asad Umar said: “This is the fourth month of current account surplus. We inherited the biggest current account deficit in history with monthly current account deficits of $2bn when the government was formed!”

https://www.dawn.com/news/1591243/p...-account-surplus-for-fourth-consecutive-month

 

[transparent opacity]

Current account gap soars to $2.56b

KARACHI:
Pakistan’s economy received a shock on Thursday when the central bank reported that the current account deficit (CAD) – the gap between country’s higher foreign expenditures and lower income – widened to a historic high at $2.56 billion in January 2022.

A hefty import bill and drop in the flow of workers’ remittances from overseas Pakistanis were the major factors behind the widening current account deficit.

“No one had expected the deficit to rise to such a high level,” Arif Habib Limited (AHL) Head of Research Tahir Abbas said while talking to The Express Tribune. Financial experts were projecting a deficit of $1.25-1.5 billion for the month, he added.

“The current account deficit rose … largely due to imports in kind that are fully financed,” the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) said on its official Twitter handle. “Excluding these (imports in kind), the deficit would have been around $1 billion lower in January 2022.”

The imports in kind worth around $1 billion were apparently and mostly the Covid-19 vaccines provided free of charge by the developed countries and petroleum products under ITFC (International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation) arrangements, said Pak-Kuwait Investment Company Head of Research Samiullah Tariq.

Pakistan recorded the new all-time high current account deficit in January 2022 after a gap of 13 years and three months, as the country had last registered a deficit of $2.3 billion in October 2008.

The deficit of $2.56 billion in January 2022 was 12 times higher than the $219 million recorded a year ago in January 2021. On a month-on-month basis, the deficit in January was 37% higher compared to $1.86 billion in December 2021.

The cumulative current account deficit for the first seven months (July-January) of current fiscal year 2021-22 amounted to $11.58 billion compared to a surplus of $1.03 billion in the same period of previous year, according to the central bank.

The deficit may remain high considering the international petroleum crude benchmark (Brent) hit an eight-year high of over $100 per barrel on Thursday after Russia attacked Ukraine. The oil price was hovering around $70 per barrel about a year ago.

The share of petroleum products in the import bill during the first seven months of the ongoing fiscal year was 25%.

“Higher oil prices pose a threat to the domestic economic activities. The development may slow down economic growth,” he said.

It is very difficult to analyse how the global politics would shape up in the backdrop of Russian military intervention in Ukraine and how the US, European Union, United Nations and Nato would react to the Moscow’s move.

“Oil prices may remain elevated till the global political situation de-escalates,” he said.

“The developments on domestic and global economic fronts suggest that Pakistan’s current account deficit will amount to around $16-17 billion in fiscal year 2021-22.”


Earlier, the central bank revised up the current account deficit to 4% of GDP ($14 billion) for FY22. It said late in January 2022 that if oil price would cross over $100 per barrel, it was likely to short-lived and temporary.

Secondly, the government would pass on the increase in international oil price to end-consumers. Therefore, the jump in domestic oil price would encourage people to reduce their petroleum consumption and cut the energy import bill, an official from SBP said the other day.

Tariq, however, anticipated the current account deficit to start reducing in the months to come and estimated the deficit in full fiscal year 2021-22 at around $15 billion (4-4.25% of GDP). “The deficit soared January due to higher imports in December 2021, meaning that imports made in December were documented in January 2022.”

Imports started reducing over the past few months in the wake of the increase in duty on import of luxury goods. Moreover, the large-scale manufacturing sector also exhibited some slowdown in the aftermath of the measures including increase in the benchmark interest rate and rupee depreciation, he said.

Pakistan’s import of goods surged 55% to $42.84 billion in the first seven months of FY22 compared to $27.63 billion in the same period of the last year.

The workers’ remittances grew 9% to $17.95 billion in the period under review compared to $16.46 billion in the corresponding period of the last year.

The export of goods increased 27% to $17.72 billion in the seven month of FY22 compared to $13.92 billion in the same period of the last year.

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2345170/current-account-gap-soars-to-256b

 

[MenInG]

Pakistan’s current account deficit – the gap between foreign expenditures and income – narrowed 39% month-on-month to $623 million in April on the back of historic high workers’ remittances and reduction in import bill.

“Current account deficit shrank to $623 million in April 2022; only two-thirds of March 2022 deficit of $1,015 million,” the central bank said on its official Twitter handle late on Thursday.

“A rise in workers’ remittances (by $315 million) and fall in imports (by $246 million) explain this reduction.”

Besides, the export earnings improved $83 million to $3.15 billion in the month under review compared to $3.07 billion in the prior month.

However, in the first 10 months (Jul-Apr) of current fiscal year, the cumulative current account deficit soared 27 times to $13.78 billion compared to a mere $543 million in the same period of last year.

On a month-on-month basis, April is the second consecutive month when the current account deficit has contracted.

Last month, the central bank reported that the non-oil current account balance remained in surplus for the second successive month in March.

It, however, remained unclear whether the non-oil current account remained in surplus for the third consecutive month.

The improvement in the current account deficit came following imposition of restrictions on car financing by banks to reduce imports in September 2021.

Later, the then government increased taxes and duties on imports through a mini-budget in January 2022.

On Wednesday, the new PML-N led coalition government banned imports of luxury items like cars of over 1,800cc engine capacity, doubled import duty on mobile phones and increased the rate of taxes on imports of dozens of items including cold-rolled steel, tyres and rubber.

The government estimated that the new measures would help cut the import bill by $500 million a month and further reduce the current account deficit in the coming months.

Workers’ remittances hit a historic high at $3.12 billion in April compared to $2.81 billion in the previous month.

Imports of goods shrank to $6 billion in April compared to $6.25 billion in the prior month.

Arif Habib Limited Head of Research Tahir Abbas said that the current account deficit stood notably lower in April compared to market expectations for $1-1.5 billion deficit.

The deficit shrank to $623 million, as it got support from a significant surge of $500-600 million in workers’ remittances to an all-time high at $3.12 billion in April compared to the monthly average of around $2.5 billion in recent months.

“The drop in the current account deficit, however, seems unsustainable for May,” he said, adding that the remittances were unlikely to stay above $3 billion in the current month, as the inflows peaked in April due to Ramazan and Eid festival.

Besides, Pakistan’s energy import bill is expected to remain high following the country opted to buy expensive liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the spot market to overcome the shortfall.

“We have estimated the overall current account deficit in the range of $16-16.5 billion for fiscal year 2022,” he said.

Earlier, the central bank revised its projection upwards for the current account deficit to $14 billion (4% of gross domestic product) for FY22.

Sherman Securities’ analyst Fayaz Hussain said in a commentary “the number is below market expectations due to lower State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) import number of $6 billion compared to Pakistan Bureau of Statistics’ (PBS) figure of $6.7 billion, showing a difference of around $700 million.”

The impact of the ban on imports will likely be significantly lower than the government’s estimates.

“We believe the ban on imports of nearly 800 items in 33 categories will be partially offset by high fertiliser imports (one-off increase) and increase in the energy import bill, especially petroleum products, due to soaring international crude oil and petroleum prices.

Published in The Express Tribune, May 21st, 2022.

 

[daytrader]

Pakistan's current account deficit swells to $17.4bn

KARACHI: The current account deficit (CAD) swelled to $17.4 billion in FY22, which could be the most painful shock for an economy already in trouble with serious imbalances.

The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Wednesday reported that the country recorded a CAD of $17.406bn in FY22 compared to a gap of just $2.82bn in FY21.

The massive CAD speaks a lot about the severe problem of the balance of payments. The PML-N-led coalition government posted a CAD of $4.323bn in the April-June period of 2021-22, which was the second highest quarterly deficit of the fiscal year that ended on June 30.

The deficit of over $17.4bn is more inflicting in the wake of no inflows as loans while the commercial markets are not ready to accept Pakistan’s bonds due to higher risks.

PML-N-led coalition govt posts second-highest quarterly deficit of $4.3bn

The current account deficit has exceeded the SBP’s projection for the deficit in FY22. The CAD increased to 4.6 per cent of GDP in FY22, up from 0.8pc in FY21.

In November 2021, the SBP issued its Annual Report and said the current account deficit is projected in the range of 2pc to 3pc of GDP during FY22.

Reports appearing in local and foreign media suggest that Pakistan can’t unlock the dollar inflows until the IMF executive board approves its staff-level agreement reached on July 15.

The finance minister has been hinting at an early deal with the IMF, but with the passage of time, the trust deficit is rising; the currency market reflects the trust deficit by depreciating the local currency on a day-to-day basis.

The CAD in June FY22 was much higher than in May as it rose to $2.275bn in June compared to $1.430bn in May. The CAD in June FY21 was $1.637bn.

“A surge in oil imports saw CAD rise to $2.3bn in June despite higher exports and remittances,” the SBP tweeted on Wednesday. So far in July, oil imports are much lower and the deficit is expected to resume its moderating trajectory,” it added.

The central bank said 3.3 million tonnes of oil were imported in June, a 33pc increase over May.

“Together with higher global prices, this more than doubled the oil import bill from $1.4bn to $2.9bn. By contrast, non-oil imports ticked down,” said the SBP.

The higher oil import bill was held for a higher current account deficit in June, but the entire fiscal year noted a very high current account deficit as the second quarter noted the biggest deficit of $5.565bn.

Further details showed that exports of goods in FY22 were $32.45bn while service exports were $6.97bn.

The imports of goods were $72.05bn, while the imports of services were $12.14bn. The balance of trade in goods and services showed a net deficit of $44.77bn in FY22 compared to $31.15bn a year ago.

The ongoing fiscal year will face a tough time with poor inflows and higher outflows while the economic growth rate will be half of the growth achieved in the previous fiscal year.

DAWN

 

[Hextro]

Pakistan's current account deficit swells to $17.4bn

KARACHI: The current account deficit (CAD) swelled to $17.4 billion in FY22, which could be the most painful shock for an economy already in trouble with serious imbalances.

The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Wednesday reported that the country recorded a CAD of $17.406bn in FY22 compared to a gap of just $2.82bn in FY21.

The massive CAD speaks a lot about the severe problem of the balance of payments. The PML-N-led coalition government posted a CAD of $4.323bn in the April-June period of 2021-22, which was the second highest quarterly deficit of the fiscal year that ended on June 30.

The deficit of over $17.4bn is more inflicting in the wake of no inflows as loans while the commercial markets are not ready to accept Pakistan’s bonds due to higher risks.

PML-N-led coalition govt posts second-highest quarterly deficit of $4.3bn

The current account deficit has exceeded the SBP’s projection for the deficit in FY22. The CAD increased to 4.6 per cent of GDP in FY22, up from 0.8pc in FY21.

In November 2021, the SBP issued its Annual Report and said the current account deficit is projected in the range of 2pc to 3pc of GDP during FY22.

Reports appearing in local and foreign media suggest that Pakistan can’t unlock the dollar inflows until the IMF executive board approves its staff-level agreement reached on July 15.

The finance minister has been hinting at an early deal with the IMF, but with the passage of time, the trust deficit is rising; the currency market reflects the trust deficit by depreciating the local currency on a day-to-day basis.

The CAD in June FY22 was much higher than in May as it rose to $2.275bn in June compared to $1.430bn in May. The CAD in June FY21 was $1.637bn.

“A surge in oil imports saw CAD rise to $2.3bn in June despite higher exports and remittances,” the SBP tweeted on Wednesday. So far in July, oil imports are much lower and the deficit is expected to resume its moderating trajectory,” it added.

The central bank said 3.3 million tonnes of oil were imported in June, a 33pc increase over May.

“Together with higher global prices, this more than doubled the oil import bill from $1.4bn to $2.9bn. By contrast, non-oil imports ticked down,” said the SBP.

The higher oil import bill was held for a higher current account deficit in June, but the entire fiscal year noted a very high current account deficit as the second quarter noted the biggest deficit of $5.565bn.

Further details showed that exports of goods in FY22 were $32.45bn while service exports were $6.97bn.

The imports of goods were $72.05bn, while the imports of services were $12.14bn. The balance of trade in goods and services showed a net deficit of $44.77bn in FY22 compared to $31.15bn a year ago.

The ongoing fiscal year will face a tough time with poor inflows and higher outflows while the economic growth rate will be half of the growth achieved in the previous fiscal year.

DAWN

Do you guys know what the idiots in power have done to address this? Decrease exports and ban imports of items that will increase exports. PDM related parties have a habit of decreasing exports and increasing CAD.

 

[daytrader]

Current account deficit narrows to $0.7bn

Pakistan’s current account deficit (CAD) fell to $0.7 billion in August, compared to $1.2bn in the previous month, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) said late on Wednesday night. This equates to a decline of 41.67 per cent month-on-month.

For the first two months of the current fiscal year, the current account deficit narrowed by $0.5bn to $1.9bn compared to the corresponding period in FY22, the central bank tweeted. This was primarily due to exports increasing by $0.5bn and imports declining by $0.2bn, it added.

SBP data showed the balance of trade in goods and services also declined by 0.54pc month-on-month to $3.98bn.

During August, imports of goods stood at $5.75bn, compared to $5.35bn in the preceding month. On the other hand, exports increased significantly to $2.81bn, jumping 23.38pc from $2.28bn in July.

Workers’ remittances clocked in at $2.72bn compared to $2.52bn in the previous month.

Pakistan posted a massive current account deficit of $17.3bn in the previous fiscal year, or a monthly average of $1.44bn.

The central bank expects CAD to lower to $10bn this year, according to a Mettis Global report.

DAWN