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Pakistan's path to semi-finals stage in the 2019 World Cup

cricketInsight

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Yeah, why wait till after our first match? lets start this thread now.

As we stand today before the kickoff of the world cup, according to most predictions, teams can be categorized in the following buckets:

The Semifanlists: England, Australia, and India should make there unless there are some major surprises - wont that be fun?

The Contendars: South Africa and New Zealand who are next in line to fight for the fourth spot as the semifinalist. It is difficult to see a semifinalist outside of these two groups before the first ball of the tournament is bowled

The Challengers: West Indies and Pakistan can make it to the semis but they will have to be at their best to pull it off.


The Dream Killers: No one expects Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Afghanistan to make it to the semis but they surely can help kill the aspirations of other teams. Their victories will be good for the competition but teams that lose a match to this group may find it hard to progress unless this happens with a team that has already sealed its semifinal spot.


Pakistan's Path So we have to beat every team in the lower two groups and try to find a couple wins from the two groups above us. This does mean that the match against West Indies is a must win - If we lose it, we wont have a real shot at the semis.

Obviously, if the whole world cup plays out as expected, it can become a boring affair with this format. Lets hope for a fun competition and hopefull the Pakistan team can make it a fun one for us fans too!
 
Ok,hate to say it but I dont really expect Pakistan to win even a single game in this tournament.Though ok,they might just win against Afghanistan.



Do keep in mind that even this Afghanistan game which got interesting towards the end was really due to the reverse swing of Wahab.You cant expect that every time.

Batting does seem strong but not immune to the classic Pakistani collapse and if Pakistan can score 300 in a match,the other team most definitely will.Woh bhi chanay bechne nahin aye.
Yes and I will say it,Fakhar is becoming another Nasir Jamshed.

The spin department is extremely patchy.Need Hafeez and Imad to bowl more. Shadab seems to lack penetration as of now but he might be ok...should not leak runs atleast.

As for the pace department...there are too many wild cards. In fact only wild cards.Shaheen really should not play. Hasnain looks really promising but seems a bit raw...liable to get tonked any moment.Same with Wahab and it wont reverse swing every time.Aamir can at best keep the opposition quite and Hasan is a hope...balance of economy and penetration but he can also get bashed now and then....sometimes resorts to bowling stupid lengths.
 
We HAVE to beat the following teams

West Indies
Bangladesh
Afghanistan
Sri Lanka
New Zealand
South Africa

Then we gotta pray that we beat one of England, Australia or India. Ideally beating India would be the most fun and enjoyable.

I feel a 6-3 record would be good enough to make it to the Semi's but don't want to leave anything to chance so 7-2 must be the goal!
 
you actually believe that on current form Pak will beat even Bangladesh ?
 
Just take it 1 game at a time. Let's beat the West Indies and take it from there.
 
One thing about Pakistan is every time they started rubbish in an ICC tounement they actually won't it.

1992
2009
2017
 
How many matches can we realistically loose and still make it to the semi final?

We’re not really favourites to win against any team baring 1 or 2 I feel.
 
How many matches can we realistically loose and still make it to the semi final?

We’re not really favourites to win against any team baring 1 or 2 I feel.

You can lose 3 and make it. Maybe 4 but highly unlikely.
6 wins and 3 losses should be the Cut off point.
 
Bangladesh are the real contenders / dark horses, don't overlook or underestimate them. Afghan have a much better team then Kenya did in 2003, there's no reason why they can't shock the world either with a final 4 berth.
 
One thing about Pakistan is every time they started rubbish in an ICC tounement they actually won't it.

1992
2009
2017

In 1992 they came into the tournament as arguably the best in the world.

2009 - Our greatest T20 team ever, only weak spot was the lower order but the addition of Razzaq changed everything

2017 - This I will agree with you but bare in mind CT is not as gruelling like a WC
 
Pakistan needs to be in the "Dream Killers" category. No one expects them to make the semis. Heck one could argue they have a chance to lose every match.
 
West Indies
Sri Lanka
South Africa
Afghanistan
Bangladesh

These 5 games are must wins, and I would fully back Pakistan to come out on top in all 5.

Apart from that, we have to win at least 1 game against the remaining 4 teams. It would we ideal if we can get an early win against England, otherwise I'd say our best chance is against New Zealand. Once we're in the semis, anything can happen.
 
Pakistan need to pull the socks up its as simple as that. The way they are playing every team will take the attack to them as we saw afghanistan do in the warm up. They will deliberately target our bowlers. I doubt any team actually fears pakistan anymore... Normally we would expect to easily beat

Windies
S.Lanka
Afghanistan
Bangladesh
Aswell as South Africa and One of the other teams... But the way we are playing atm raises more questions than answers... WE NEED TO BE RUTHLESS.... WHERE IS THE OLD PAKISTAN??..... Why have we suddenly turned minnows like...
I Want team PAKISTAN to play like cornered tigers from the Word GO on 31st May 2019 At Trent bridge..... We need to be agressive. Batsmen need to look to be positive like other teams and our bowlers need to be aggresive and bowl with a plan.. Do your homework like other teams pls Pakistan. That is the secret to success in the World cup... Bowl to each batsmen with a plan... Analayze footage of each batsmen days before the match !!!
#WEHAVEWEWILL
 
Its amazing how people are saying X,Y and Z are confirmed semi finalists. Cricket is not played on paper. I don't see a team in this world cup which is far far superior than the other teams like for eg Australia of 2003 and 2007.

Contrary to what people are saying I think this a very open World cup and any of WI, Pak, SA, NZ, Aus, Eng and Ind can make it to the last 4.
 
You can lose 3 and make it. Maybe 4 but highly unlikely.
6 wins and 3 losses should be the Cut off point.

A team can loose 6 games and still with 3 wins can make the SF mathematically. Opposite is one team can miss out even with 7 wins.
 
A team can loose 6 games and still with 3 wins can make the SF mathematically. Opposite is one team can miss out even with 7 wins.

Mathematically there are many possibilities but in the most common of scenarios 6+ wins would be required to get there.
 
In 1992 they came into the tournament as arguably the best in the world.

2009 - Our greatest T20 team ever, only weak spot was the lower order but the addition of Razzaq changed everything

2017 - This I will agree with you but bare in mind CT is not as gruelling like a WC

1992 - we lost our first 3 games out of 4 and rained saved us or else we would have been out

2009 - we lost our 2 warm ups and first 2 group games and the third one was do or go home and that's when we bounced back hard
 
One thing about Pakistan is every time they started rubbish in an ICC tounement they actually won't it.

1992
2009
2017

2003
2007
2013
2014
2016

All tournaments that started rubbish and led to a first round exit.
 
Do you really think our team will make it to semi? A team cannot even win over Afghanistan after so many drops of catches, mis-fielding and bad keeping will be lucky enough to win 2 matches.
 
I feel Pakistan will come good . Whether it’s enough to qualify time will tell . The first match is very important as it’s against a least favourable team . Simply have to win that one .

We can then afford a loss against England . Two losses up front will prove to be very detrimental.
 
U can’t get any worse than losing your last 11 Odis
The cornered tigers approach only works well up to a point and then we have to start discusing poaching and extinction
 
What maths are you using??

Permutations. It’s complex calculation, but this is how it can happen

10 teams, 9 games each; 45 games - 90 points in offer (2 per game)

Top 3 teams win all 7 games against bottom 7, and left with 3 games between themselves. They will qualify with 48 points among themselves. Left is 7 teams with 6 games each among themselves. It’s possible that all 7 wins 3, looses 3 - the one with best NRR will qualify for SF having 3 wins only.

Other side of the coin, top 5 teams win every game against bottom 5, then left with 4 games each among themselves. Mathematically it’s possible that all 5 will win 7 (5+2), and end up with 14 points each - the one with worst NRR will miss out.

Roughly, it’s 10 teams, 9 games each & 4 to qualify: 9-4 = 5 wins should make it or may be 2 teams at 10 points. 5 wins & a washout should make the 4th spot almost certainly.
 
Pakistan will need to win atleast 5 games to even have a remote chance of making the semis and doubt that will happen.
 
So let's take this game by game.

Game one: vs WI, I think Pakistan lose this and possibly in horrendous fashion.

Game two: vs England, again a loss for Pakistan which further demoralise an already demoralised outfit.

Game three: vs SL and this is the acid test, do or die. I think Pakistan can just pull it off against a team in a worse position psychologically than them.

Game four: vs Australia, yet another do or die situation now and I think Australia would romp home.

Game five: vs India, Pakistan are 1-3 by this stage but could pull of a minor miracle. India may well have been unsettled by a couple of defeats at this stage. Pakistan edge it.

Game six: vs SA and Pakistan are 2-3 but I think this is the end of the line. SA are to good to lose this time out.

Game seven: vs NZ, Pakistan go down 2-5 here and the recovery is now impossible.

Game eight: vs Afghanistan, Pakistan will like win this it is not enough to give them a semi final berth.

Game nine: vs Bangladesh, final group game and a win for Pakistan. They end the tournament 5-4.

This is about as optimistic as I can be.
 
So let's take this game by game.

Game one: vs WI, I think Pakistan lose this and possibly in horrendous fashion.

Game two: vs England, again a loss for Pakistan which further demoralise an already demoralised outfit.

Game three: vs SL and this is the acid test, do or die. I think Pakistan can just pull it off against a team in a worse position psychologically than them.

Game four: vs Australia, yet another do or die situation now and I think Australia would romp home.

Game five: vs India, Pakistan are 1-3 by this stage but could pull of a minor miracle. India may well have been unsettled by a couple of defeats at this stage. Pakistan edge it.

Game six: vs SA and Pakistan are 2-3 but I think this is the end of the line. SA are to good to lose this time out.

Game seven: vs NZ, Pakistan go down 2-5 here and the recovery is now impossible.

Game eight: vs Afghanistan, Pakistan will like win this it is not enough to give them a semi final berth.

Game nine: vs Bangladesh, final group game and a win for Pakistan. They end the tournament 5-4.

This is about as optimistic as I can be.

That is still 4-5 for Pakistan.
 
One thing about Pakistan is every time they started rubbish in an ICC tounement they actually won't it.

1992
2009
2017

In 1992 they came into the tournament as arguably the best in the world.

2009 - Our greatest T20 team ever, only weak spot was the lower order but the addition of Razzaq changed everything

2017 - This I will agree with you but bare in mind CT is not as gruelling like a WC

1992 - we lost our first 3 games out of 4 and rained saved us or else we would have been out

2009 - we lost our 2 warm ups and first 2 group games and the third one was do or go home and that's when we bounced back hard

You didn't understand my response, you're alluding to overcoming adversity during a tournament but not looking at the form and quality of a team before it which is a lot more influential when it comes to how far you are going to progress.
 
So let's take this game by game.

Game one: vs WI, I think Pakistan lose this and possibly in horrendous fashion.

Game two: vs England, again a loss for Pakistan which further demoralise an already demoralised outfit.

Game three: vs SL and this is the acid test, do or die. I think Pakistan can just pull it off against a team in a worse position psychologically than them.

Game four: vs Australia, yet another do or die situation now and I think Australia would romp home.

Game five: vs India, Pakistan are 1-3 by this stage but could pull of a minor miracle. India may well have been unsettled by a couple of defeats at this stage. Pakistan edge it.

Game six: vs SA and Pakistan are 2-3 but I think this is the end of the line. SA are to good to lose this time out.

Game seven: vs NZ, Pakistan go down 2-5 here and the recovery is now impossible.

Game eight: vs Afghanistan, Pakistan will like win this it is not enough to give them a semi final berth.

Game nine: vs Bangladesh, final group game and a win for Pakistan. They end the tournament 5-4.

This is about as optimistic as I can be.

This is spot on, except I would swap the India win for a loss and a win vs SA for us instead. Though we will lose both probably :))
 
This is spot on, except I would swap the India win for a loss and a win vs SA for us instead. Though we will lose both probably :))

Yes, I was being quite optimistic with the India win because India's prep hasn't been great either and they are carrying players like Dhoni.
 
4 wins and 5 losses, I might have written it the wrong way round. Pakistan can not get into the semis off the back of this.

Every team, Pakistan included, should take it one game at a time in this world cup imo. No point worrying about qualification , pitches etc. A lot can happen over 9 matches , each against a different opposition. Even England won't win every match in the group stage or atleast it is highly unlikely. After that it's just a case of two knockout matches. Pakistan should be OK as long as they have plans for each player/team and look to execute these plans. As the recent series against England showed us, the gap between the teams is not as big as we think.
 
It doesn't help that Pakistan are playing the stronger teams earlier on, by the time we get to Afghanistan and Bangladesh they could be dead rubbers for us, which would be a shame as those would be competitive matches if earlier in the competition.

Realistically I am not even looking at the semi finals, rather take each game on it's own merits as I don't think qualification is likely. There are six better teams in the tournament so we have no right to be looking that far ahead.
 
Every team, Pakistan included, should take it one game at a time in this world cup imo. No point worrying about qualification , pitches etc. A lot can happen over 9 matches , each against a different opposition. Even England won't win every match in the group stage or atleast it is highly unlikely. After that it's just a case of two knockout matches. Pakistan should be OK as long as they have plans for each player/team and look to execute these plans. As the recent series against England showed us, the gap between the teams is not as big as we think.

I agree, there is hope as is always the case in sport and Pakistan's batting is looking very impressive but the lack of planning when it comes to the bowling unit will be disastrous. Saffy Kaptaan's latest ploy of using bowlers in two over spells with the new ball is plain stupid. New ball bowlers havet o learn to bowl in pairs and gain rhythm, that can not happen with two over spells.

It is also sad to see that Gohar, Nawaz and/or Khan were not selected as spinners, in an age when middle over spin bowling is so important. Too much now rests on the shoulders of young, ill Shadab and badly out of form Imad. Hafeez may get some spells but his batting does not justify a position within the side.

The well thought out attacks of the 2017 CT and the WIndies series from that time seems to have gone out the window.
 
So let's take this game by game.

Game one: vs WI, I think Pakistan lose this and possibly in horrendous fashion.

Game two: vs England, again a loss for Pakistan which further demoralise an already demoralised outfit.

Game three: vs SL and this is the acid test, do or die. I think Pakistan can just pull it off against a team in a worse position psychologically than them.

Game four: vs Australia, yet another do or die situation now and I think Australia would romp home.

Game five: vs India, Pakistan are 1-3 by this stage but could pull of a minor miracle. India may well have been unsettled by a couple of defeats at this stage. Pakistan edge it.

Game six: vs SA and Pakistan are 2-3 but I think this is the end of the line. SA are to good to lose this time out.

Game seven: vs NZ, Pakistan go down 2-5 here and the recovery is now impossible.

Game eight: vs Afghanistan, Pakistan will like win this it is not enough to give them a semi final berth.

Game nine: vs Bangladesh, final group game and a win for Pakistan. They end the tournament 5-4.

This is about as optimistic as I can be.

Not too dissimilar of how many expect it to be, but LOL at the fact you predict us to beat India. They will slaughter us.
 
There are six better teams in the tournament so we have no right to be looking that far ahead.

After 3 matches apiece, there might be 9 better teams or may be 3 better teams.
For a weak team like Pakistan who are not known for organised composure, it's better if they don't think about 9 matches. At any stage, shouldn't look beyond next 2 matches.

This 9 match Round Robin format will do amazing things to teams.This
longer format nullifies notion of 'peaking at right time'. After first 15 days Physical and Mental fatigue will decide outcomes of matches. Teams with stubborn, arrogant players will advance to SF. Pre tournament rankings are not any indicator in a long format. One loss will have more effect on the teams who expect high, as compared to the teams who are not favourites.

Two of these will make it to SF ; Pakistan,WI, Bng
Two of these won't make it to SF ; Australia,England,India

And burden of expectations + effect of 1 loss in a world cup is huge for favourites.Pre tournament favourites Spain in 2014 and Germany in 2018 were first round exits.
 
After 3 matches apiece, there might be 9 better teams or may be 3 better teams.
For a weak team like Pakistan who are not known for organised composure, it's better if they don't think about 9 matches. At any stage, shouldn't look beyond next 2 matches.

This 9 match Round Robin format will do amazing things to teams.This
longer format nullifies notion of 'peaking at right time'. After first 15 days Physical and Mental fatigue will decide outcomes of matches. Teams with stubborn, arrogant players will advance to SF. Pre tournament rankings are not any indicator in a long format. One loss will have more effect on the teams who expect high, as compared to the teams who are not favourites.

Two of these will make it to SF ; Pakistan,WI, Bng
Two of these won't make it to SF ; Australia,England,India

And burden of expectations + effect of 1 loss in a world cup is huge for favourites.Pre tournament favourites Spain in 2014 and Germany in 2018 were first round exits.

Don't believe football has equivalence.

A good team is a good team.

Sure Semi Final Spot - England, Australia

Likely Semi final spot - NZ, India, South Africa

Unlikely Semi Final Spot - Pakistan, WI, Bangladesh

No Semi Final Spot - Afghanistan.

That's the realistic picture and rest is just all delusion.
 
How on earth we could be so optimistic considering the following concerns;
First lets talk about Bowling
1. Who are the bowlers in this line up to take a couple of wickets with the new ball? (None)
2. Who are the bowlers to contain in the middle overs or take wickets in the middle overs? (many would say hafeez, or imad or shadab but I am not sure)
3. Who are the bowlers to go less than 10 an over in last 6-7 overs? (Absolutely none)
Now coming to Batting
1. Who is the match winner? (may be Fakhar only if he is extremely lucky and gets a couple of chances)
2. Who can score 60 of last 5-6 overs? None (mind you this is very normal nowadays)
Our fielding, captaincy and team planning is also for all to see.

And still we believe some miracle will happen. Yes it happened in CT but everyday is not Sunday (as Sheikh Rasheed says;)
 
Don't believe football has equivalence.

A good team is a good team.

Sure Semi Final Spot - England, Australia

Likely Semi final spot - NZ, India, South Africa

Unlikely Semi Final Spot - Pakistan, WI, Bangladesh

No Semi Final Spot - Afghanistan.

That's the realistic picture and rest is just all delusion.

We will come back to this thread after 40 days.
 
We will come back to this thread after 40 days.

Sure.

Make sure to bookmark a spot for England and Australia.

I am excluding rain as potential cause.

If all matches are completed, there is no way England and Australia are missing out.
 
It is going to be a challenge this time, to make the semi finals - but I think any team who does make the semi final will deserve it - no flukes will make it this time due to format.

With respect to Pakistan, I think the first game is crucial against West Indies to get early points on the board.

You would expect Pakistan, in a World Cup to win the following games:

West Indies, Sri Lanka, Afghanistan, Bangladesh

We have a decent record against South Africa and New Zealand

The most difficult games are Aus, India, England.

England at Trent Bridge looks to be a very difficult one.
The recent Aus series, we didn't do too badly (I know we lost 5-0) but we were not a mile off and the majority of the team were not playing.
India - we have to break the hoodoo at some point, and our batting has always been our problem in WC matches vs India, our batting this time is much more consistent.

I think if we can win the 4 against teams ranked lower than us, and then beat South Africa or New Zealand, one game against Aus or India is definitely doable.

The crucial part is if we can win West Indies, and Sri Lanka - we will be 2wins out of 3. We then have a difficult middle, vs Aus, India, SA and NZ - but a couple of wins in these 4 and we are then in a strong position before Bang and Afghanistan - the worry is these 2 are always extra motivated against us.
 
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How on earth we could be so optimistic considering the following concerns;
First lets talk about Bowling
1. Who are the bowlers in this line up to take a couple of wickets with the new ball? (None)
2. Who are the bowlers to contain in the middle overs or take wickets in the middle overs? (many would say hafeez, or imad or shadab but I am not sure)
3. Who are the bowlers to go less than 10 an over in last 6-7 overs? (Absolutely none)
Now coming to Batting
1. Who is the match winner? (may be Fakhar only if he is extremely lucky and gets a couple of chances)
2. Who can score 60 of last 5-6 overs? None (mind you this is very normal nowadays)
Our fielding, captaincy and team planning is also for all to see.

And still we believe some miracle will happen. Yes it happened in CT but everyday is not Sunday (as Sheikh Rasheed says;)

You're bang on about the bowling. What worries me about that particular department is it doesn't seem like players are just 'out of form' but in fact have simply regressed. You can see all the tactical analysis on seam position and how they've changed for the players of Hasan Ali, Mohammad Amir etc which are things that don't just change overnight. If they were simply 'out of form' in the sense the ball just wasn't coming out right for them, or they were simply lacking rhythm, then I wouldn't be concerned as that happens to every bowler, from amateur level to international level. But this is more than just that, it is an official crisis. Never in our history have I had such low expectations from our bowling
 
Pakistan is immensely underrated in this WC. Bowling is not our concern. We fielded our 2nd or 3rd strength bowling attack against aus & eng on flattest wickets ever in history of ODI cricket & still were competitive. Amir, Wahab, Hassan, Shadab, Imad & Hafeez never played together recently. Our bowling attack is still among top 3. Top order batting is in prime form. The only weakness is finishing skills in batting (last 10 overs). That's where we have lost most of the matches.
We can easily make it to the semis. Only tough games will be against india & aus, rest will be walk in the park IA.
 
Don't believe football has equivalence.

A good team is a good team.

Sure Semi Final Spot - England, Australia

Likely Semi final spot - NZ, India, South Africa

Unlikely Semi Final Spot - Pakistan, WI, Bangladesh

No Semi Final Spot - Afghanistan.

That's the realistic picture and rest is just all delusion.

this is spot on
 
If Pakistan lost against one of wi, ban, afg, sl. Then forget about reaching semifinal
 
Pakistan is immensely underrated in this WC. Bowling is not our concern. We fielded our 2nd or 3rd strength bowling attack against aus & eng on flattest wickets ever in history of ODI cricket & still were competitive. Amir, Wahab, Hassan, Shadab, Imad & Hafeez never played together recently. Our bowling attack is still among top 3. Top order batting is in prime form. The only weakness is finishing skills in batting (last 10 overs). That's where we have lost most of the matches.
We can easily make it to the semis. Only tough games will be against india & aus, rest will be walk in the park IA.

I hope you’re being sarcastic.
 
None of the top team will have an easy ride either. England, Australia and NZ could easily lose against any other team other than Afghanistan and Bangladesh, so final four could come down to rain outs and pure luck.

Pakistan will likely lose first few, and then make a roaring come back by upset wins and then by the end will lose against the likes of Afghanistan to leave it on other teams (dua time, Pakistan way :inzi) to beat top 4 ranked teams to make it through. Rain out might end up helping Pakistan as well so be optimistic folks :afridi
 
Big South Africa loss to England in the opener helps Pakistan for that 4th spot alongside England, Australia and India. They need to beat West Indies tomorrow and that will be a decent start to the tournament.
 
Big South Africa loss to England in the opener helps Pakistan for that 4th spot alongside England, Australia and India. They need to beat West Indies tomorrow and that will be a decent start to the tournament.

yes, the first match went as expected. We also have to back Eng to beat NZ and possibly IND too. If Pakistan win tomorrow, we can start to hope for a semifinal spot.
 
assuming we are able to beat the 'weaker' sides WI and SL, then predictably lose to the heavyweights in the middle phase, seems like the matches vs NZ and SA will be the key fixtures.

need to win those and finish strong vs AFG and BAN.

5 wins out of 9 may be enough on NRR/ head to head to qualify for the semis.
 
A first-round exit is around the corner. For stat freaks, we have lost 20 of our 24 matches.
 
So WI has made a case for the semifinal spot by trouncing Pakistan while further diminishing any of our changes.

All other results have gone per expectations so far without changing the status quo. Can Bangladesh hurt South Africa's chances tomorrow? Looks like South Africa may be understimating Bangladesh by already looking past them towards the India game.
 
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