Slog
Senior Test Player
- Joined
- Feb 15, 2015
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A common opinion floating around in the Pakistani social media space these days goes along the following lines : "Atleast the PML-N Goverment was so much better than the dark days of the PPP government under Zardari."
On the face of it, the opinion seems fair enough. During PPP days, Pakistan was in the doldrums with almost daily terror attacks bringing life to a stand still. People were scared to venture out even and obviously consumer sentiment was low and foreign investment was nonexistent and for good reason. How can you expect to guarantee safety of foreigners when there's a bomb blast going off every few days. In fact, large tracts of land in the north west frontier were not even under Pakistan control with Tehreek e Taliban Pakistan effectively in control in those areas. Power cuts and Loadshedding was a constant menace and while they had been gifts of the Musharraf administration, PPP got took no concrete steps to address them in the short term. To add to this inflation in the early years was high and in double digits though tbf to PPP, they managed to bring that under control.
However looking at the mess that the country was under PPP, and seeing that relatively speaking Pakistan is safer now and atleast there seems to be something positive on the horizon regarding the solution to our chronic power issues, one would say that it's a no brainer to conclude that PML-N has been miles better.
However I tend to disagree with this line of thinking. In my opinion, the outgoing Goverment was almost certainly multiple times worse than PPP.
Firstly let me address the two crowning achievements of the PML-N tenure which the PML-N supporters (or even analysts) point to. The 'achievements' are namely the following:
1) Power projects being set up under the China Pakistan Economic Corridor ("CPEC") which should theoretically solve the chronic energy issues we have been facing for almost 15 years now
2) General improvement in the security and law & order situation in the country post Operation Zarb-E-Azb.
While both are real events and have had a positive impact on the country, it is important to accept that neither are achievements which can be attributed to any civilian government. Zarb-E-Azb was led by Raheel Shareef amidst dissenting voices from the civilian representatives. The operation was a policy of the army and it led that operation and the one in Karachi all but independent. The civilian governments rarely have anything to do with such adventures. In fact both PML-N and PTI had 'talks' and 'diplomacy' with TTP in their manifestos and were leading a failing peace talks process before the Army Public School attack forced the Army's hand to go into an operation and override any civilian direction in the matter.
Secondly - CPEC as well would have been happening regardless of who was in power. The Chinese are leading it and it would have happened regardless of who was in power because the Army has also taken an ownership on it. Again not an achievement of PML- N policy.
However why I definitely think tips the scales in favour of PPP are that they never enjoyed the head start PML-N did. The N Goverment enjoyed 3 huge advantages which gave it a massive head start over the PPP government. They are the following:
1) PML-N was extremely fortunate that for majority of its tenure the world economy was actually doing really well. As a result there was a great chance to piggy back off the positive global sentiment. On the other hand, during PPP's times the global economy had crashed and was going through its worst period since the 1920s.
2) PML-N was extremely fortunate that during its tenure, crude oil hovered around $50-$60 per barrel. At one point it was as low as the mid $30s. Due to this our import bill was significantly manageable and gave us a golden opportunity to correct our trade imbalance. During PPP's time, barring the first year or so, crude oil hovered all over $100 per barrel resulting in crucial foreign exchange being eaten away.
3) PML-N was fortunate that during its tenure the CPEC projects started which brought in jobs and future sources of energy. And at the worst, generated a good feeling about the economy. Let's be honest here - PML-N had absolutely NOTHING to do with CPEC and the fact that it happened. PML-N was just fortunate to be at the right place at the right time. Regardless of who was in Goverment it was going to start when it did and in any case the Army took ownership of that in terms of security and ensuring safe execution.
However, despite these HUGE advantages at its disposal, PML-N failed to make them count which is why I will argue that PML-N was a greater disaster than PPP.
The PPP at the least had constitutional achievements such as ensuring supremacy of parliament and taking away powers from the President. Additionally it also gave provinces greater autonomy through the awarding of the NFC awards.
On the face of it, the opinion seems fair enough. During PPP days, Pakistan was in the doldrums with almost daily terror attacks bringing life to a stand still. People were scared to venture out even and obviously consumer sentiment was low and foreign investment was nonexistent and for good reason. How can you expect to guarantee safety of foreigners when there's a bomb blast going off every few days. In fact, large tracts of land in the north west frontier were not even under Pakistan control with Tehreek e Taliban Pakistan effectively in control in those areas. Power cuts and Loadshedding was a constant menace and while they had been gifts of the Musharraf administration, PPP got took no concrete steps to address them in the short term. To add to this inflation in the early years was high and in double digits though tbf to PPP, they managed to bring that under control.
However looking at the mess that the country was under PPP, and seeing that relatively speaking Pakistan is safer now and atleast there seems to be something positive on the horizon regarding the solution to our chronic power issues, one would say that it's a no brainer to conclude that PML-N has been miles better.
However I tend to disagree with this line of thinking. In my opinion, the outgoing Goverment was almost certainly multiple times worse than PPP.
Firstly let me address the two crowning achievements of the PML-N tenure which the PML-N supporters (or even analysts) point to. The 'achievements' are namely the following:
1) Power projects being set up under the China Pakistan Economic Corridor ("CPEC") which should theoretically solve the chronic energy issues we have been facing for almost 15 years now
2) General improvement in the security and law & order situation in the country post Operation Zarb-E-Azb.
While both are real events and have had a positive impact on the country, it is important to accept that neither are achievements which can be attributed to any civilian government. Zarb-E-Azb was led by Raheel Shareef amidst dissenting voices from the civilian representatives. The operation was a policy of the army and it led that operation and the one in Karachi all but independent. The civilian governments rarely have anything to do with such adventures. In fact both PML-N and PTI had 'talks' and 'diplomacy' with TTP in their manifestos and were leading a failing peace talks process before the Army Public School attack forced the Army's hand to go into an operation and override any civilian direction in the matter.
Secondly - CPEC as well would have been happening regardless of who was in power. The Chinese are leading it and it would have happened regardless of who was in power because the Army has also taken an ownership on it. Again not an achievement of PML- N policy.
However why I definitely think tips the scales in favour of PPP are that they never enjoyed the head start PML-N did. The N Goverment enjoyed 3 huge advantages which gave it a massive head start over the PPP government. They are the following:
1) PML-N was extremely fortunate that for majority of its tenure the world economy was actually doing really well. As a result there was a great chance to piggy back off the positive global sentiment. On the other hand, during PPP's times the global economy had crashed and was going through its worst period since the 1920s.
2) PML-N was extremely fortunate that during its tenure, crude oil hovered around $50-$60 per barrel. At one point it was as low as the mid $30s. Due to this our import bill was significantly manageable and gave us a golden opportunity to correct our trade imbalance. During PPP's time, barring the first year or so, crude oil hovered all over $100 per barrel resulting in crucial foreign exchange being eaten away.
3) PML-N was fortunate that during its tenure the CPEC projects started which brought in jobs and future sources of energy. And at the worst, generated a good feeling about the economy. Let's be honest here - PML-N had absolutely NOTHING to do with CPEC and the fact that it happened. PML-N was just fortunate to be at the right place at the right time. Regardless of who was in Goverment it was going to start when it did and in any case the Army took ownership of that in terms of security and ensuring safe execution.
However, despite these HUGE advantages at its disposal, PML-N failed to make them count which is why I will argue that PML-N was a greater disaster than PPP.
The PPP at the least had constitutional achievements such as ensuring supremacy of parliament and taking away powers from the President. Additionally it also gave provinces greater autonomy through the awarding of the NFC awards.
