Richmond Park by-election

[Robert]

Of interest to me at present is the Richmond Park by-election. This is one of the poshest constituencies in the UK, traditionally a Liberal marginal until 2010 when it fell to the Conservative Zac Goldsmith.

Goldsmith recently ran for London Mayor, using what many considered to be Islamophobic dog-whistle tactics against Sadiq Khan.

Now Goldsmith has resigned the Tory whip over the decision to expand LHR with a new runway.

Labour have decided to stand though they have no chance. UKIP are not standing because Goldsmith is one of the most Eurosceptic of MPs and will provide a allying voice for them. However, Richmond Park is Europhilic - 75% of the turnout at the Referendum voted Remain.

Can the Lib Dems win their seat back? As of 28 October Goldsmith has 56% in the constituency poll and Sarah Olney is far behind on just 29%.....

 

[Robert]

No word from [MENTION=53290]Markhor[/MENTION]?

 

[Gabbar Singh]

Goldsmith increased his majority by a massive amount at the last election and by all accounts he's a popular constituency MP. Moreover, he has the support of the local Tory party (and the unofficial support of the national Tory party given that they aren't putting up a candidate).

Add that to the fact that Labour will help spilt the anti Goldsmith vote so it's going to be very difficult for him to be ousted.

Moreover, the Lib Dem candidate isn't really a well known name - she's no Susan Kramer.

Nevertheless, you make a good point about the constituency being Pro EU. But will the Lib Dems be able to get these voters to the polling stations given that by- elections are notoriously bad when it comes to voter turn outs?

 

[Gabbar Singh]

The last few election results:

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[Robert]

The Greens are not standing, supporting the Lib Dems instead.

 

[Markhor]

Goldsmith should win - he won every council ward in Richmond in the Mayoral Election and by a huge margin in 2015.

However his ground game could suffer given his opposition to his own party on the Heathrow issue. How many Conservative activists can Goldsmith motivate to campaign for him when he is not explicitly running as one of them ?

 

[s28]

It's close apparently

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Its close... <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/RichmondPark?src=hash">#RichmondPark</a> <a href="https://t.co/j1kfANWBME">pic.twitter.com/j1kfANWBME</a></p>— Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) <a href="https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/804481775078637570">2 December 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[s28]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Libdems have won. Zac Goldsmith has lost a 23000 majority as Tory Remain voters switched LibDem in sensational by election shock</p>— Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) <a href="https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/804502849996648448">2 December 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[s28]

Con majority continues to fall

Party splitting between Hard Brexiteers, Soft Brexiteers and Remainers

Corbyn could be PM in 2017 at this rate if May is forced to defend her position

 

[Robert]

A stunning result by Sarah Olney MP. Hundreds of Lib Dem activists poured into Richmond from all over the UK. I am so pleased that Goldsmith's huge majority has been overturned. The Lib Dems are back!

Wondering what this means for Brexit. The most Eurosceptic of Tories, backed by UKIP, has been overthrown.

Every other candidate including the Labourite lost their deposit.

 

[Markhor]

Wow ! A 23000 majority overturned. Lib Dems had a well organised ground game. Will be a morale booster for them after last year's bruising election defeat.

 

[s28]

However anybody who knows Richmond knows it isn't representative of UK

Conservatives go from 53% to 0% of vote
Theresa May in big trouble

Lid Dem vote is just protest vote of the Progressive/Remainers in 'very rich metropolitan elite europhile London'

 

[Robert]

Now I'm awake, a few thoughts about this. There was a degree of tactical voting with UKIPers siding with CON/Goldsmith, and a lot of Labour voters went with the Lib Dems. Hardly anybody in Richmond votes Labour anyway, but FB and my LD contacts suggest that a lot of CON voters switched to LD as they are worried by their party's lurch toward populist nationalism.

As both Goldsmith and Olney were anti-Heathrow, Olney pushed the EU line in the most pro-EU consitiuency.

I think Goldsmith's Islamophobic stance in the Mayoral race hurt him a bit.

A vote for the LD values of Openness, Tolerance, Unity and Opportunity? I hope so.

 

[Robert]

Abnyway, on to Sleaford and North Hykeham, where the Tories have a 24,000 majority over Labour. The Lib Dems were in second place in 2010 but imploded in 2015.

This has to be a Tory hold, surely?

 

[Robert]

Ouch! The new LD MP was harpooned by Julia Hartley-Brewer on the radio. Welcome to the big leagues....

 

[godzilla]

does this have any knock on for the council? i note the richmond park council is heavily tory, id like to see that reflect the change in sentiment of the popular vote.

once council taxes double, it'll be interesting to see how many voters of principle remain.

 

[Robert]

does this have any knock on for the council? i note the richmond park council is heavily tory, id like to see that reflect the change in sentiment of the popular vote.

once council taxes double, it'll be interesting to see how many voters of principle remain.

What would they double for [MENTION=3393]godzilla[/MENTION]? They have been frozen for years.

 

[godzilla]

What would they double for [MENTION=3393]godzilla[/MENTION]? They have been frozen for years.

the lib dems economic policy is based on heavy taxation, and particularly with it being an affluent constituency, its inevitable they will be hit hard.

just because they have been frozen, doesnt mean they will continue to be.

 

[Robert]

the lib dems economic policy is based on heavy taxation, and particularly with it being an affluent constituency, its inevitable they will be hit hard.

So you are saying that if the LDs take Richmond Council, they will raise council tax?

 

[godzilla]

if they stand by the policy of the party and to the extent national policy will allow, i believe they will substantially raise taxes wherever they can, whether thats council tax or some other. its stated, explicit policy as i understand it.