There is no easy solution to this. Whatever decision we make, there will be great damage both in terms of human lives and the economy. However, the decision should be based on hard facts and projections and not just on assumptions or fatalistic beliefs. We have to accept that a large number of people will die, we will have to accept that the economy will suffer. The question is which decision will minimize the losses. If a lockdown can limit immediate losses but lead to economic chaos that will disrupt social order then that is equally dangerous. However, if we let the disease run rampant without any significant controls and enforcement, with our population density, illiteracy and poverty the mortality rate will be way higher than 3% and we will get to a situation where a lockdown will become inevitable or happen itself.
Make no mistake it is a momentous decision. But that is the lot of leaders. They have to make difficult decisions. In such situations there is no right or wrong decision, what matters most is a timely decision. However, you can't just give up and be resigned to the fact that bigger and more developed countries haven't been able to do anything so what can we do. Just do whatever you can and by that i mean actual tangible work and not forming high level committees and making fatalistic statements. Also don't expect anyone to help you in such times. These are times when everyone, be it individuals, families or nations regress to basest human behavior and only look for their own survival. Don't expect debt write-offs, don't expect aid.
What can be done? Even if we don't enforce a lockdown we need to do work on a war footing:
- Actively enforce a ban on all kind of gatherings throughout the country. Use force if necessary. Don't just ask people to avoid gatherings. They never will.
- Mobilize grassroots organizations and local governments. The federal and provincial government can only do so much in such situations. They have to empower and instruct local governments to do the legwork that is needed. No amount of federal or provincial committees will be able to fight this menace.
- Put aside political, religious, ethnic differences. The virus won't appreciate any of these differences, it will kill everyone regardless of age,color, religion. Alas i don't see this happening as neither the government nor the others are willing to yield. They will die but not talk.
- I have repeatedly been hearing how the government doesn't want to create panic. Why not? There has to be panic. Not talking about it won't make it go away. And when it hits hard there will be automatic panic. Don't say there are just 200 at this time and we will wait till there are more. Things will get difficult to control each passing day so start as early as possible.
- Use television and mobile networks to spread as much awareness as possible. Distribute printed material where possible. The majority of our population still doesn't know anything about this disease.
- Impose a nominal tax on every transaction in the country to form a fund to fight this crisis. Don't expect IMF or US to help. And talk to your citizens about this. Yes it is economically hard at this point but our people have contributed to such causes before and will do it again.
- Divert a part of the taxes from the savings on oil to this fund. Use the fund for medical efforts and price stabilization as necessary.
- Maintain a constant channel of communication with your people. And twitter does not count. Come on television regularly. Use recorded phone messages like the ones that were used in election days.
I am sure the government is already considering all such suggestions and much much more. Unfortunately, i just don't see or feel the sense of urgency that is required at this point. Instead there is a sense of resignation and most of the statements coming from the top leadership reek of fatalism and are just not proportionate to the size of the crisis. I am not totally blaming the government, i know it is a challenge of epic proportions but what irks me is the lukewarm response that we have seen so far. I hope it will change and change soon for the sake of this country and its citizens. We have all heard the proverb "when there is a will there is a way" and there is no better time than this to put that to practice.
