UK General Election. Don't be surprised if Theresa May's gamble fails

[Yossarian]

I'm going to go against the general consensus and play the Devil's advocate:

* Don't forget that 48% of the public voted Remain. How many of them will now be prepared to vote for the Tories and 'hard' Brexit?

* The Tories are not going to pick up extra seats in Scotland (they currently have one MP in Scotland), Wales or Northern Ireland.

* So in order to get a majority of around 100, the Tories will need to pick up around 45 seats net (ie allowing for some losses to the Liberal Democrats, especially in the South West where the Tories took the seats from the Liberal Democrats in 2015, with relatively small majorities), meaning picking up 60 odd seats from Labour - all of them in England.

* Most of the Labour seats left after the 2015 disaster are large majority Labour core seats. The 'not 100% comitted Labour' voters already left in 2010 and 2015. Meaning not many of the core Labour voters still around after 2015 are now going to switch to Tory, including those who voted for Brexit.

* Some aspects of a hard Brexit are already being seen/ being admitted as not going to work out as the Brexiteers were told. e.g. Brexit Secretary David Davis himself admitted that EU immigration numbers (a key factor for Brexit voters) are unlikely to reduce much.

* Some Labour arguments against Tory policies (eg grammar schools, NHS) are in sync with voters concerns, whilst some Labour policies are popular with voters.

* Part (albeit not all) of the reason for Corbyn's unpopularity amongst voters is as the result of Blairites and many other Labour MP's having spent the last two years trying to get rid of Corbyn, even to the extent of wanting to lose council elections and Parliamentary byelections to make Corbyn look bad.
But now they will be forced to campain in support of Labour (and Corbyn since he's the Labour Party Leader) or risk losing their seats especially since Labour Party members/local activists (who are pro Corbyn) will not do the door-to-door donkey work for them otherwise.

And last but not least.

The right-wing media has been vehementally anti-Corbyn from the start. Either not giving him any publicity, or only giving him bad publicity by highlighting every little anti-Corbyn rant by anti-Corbyn Labour MP's. But now, under General Election rules, Corbyn and Labour have to be given the same amount of coverage as Theresa May and the Tories.

Yes, Theresa May and the Tories will win. But not by the massive margins forecast, especially if the polls start to narrow. (Tories need a lead of around 9% ahead of Labour in the polls just to maintain their current 10 or so majority!)

And all of that if nothing out of the ordinary takes place in the next 6 weeks (such as Trump bombing someone and starting a war that the UK public doesn't agree with, but Theresa May gives backing to Trump nevertheless)

Anyway, that my 'Devil's Advocate' argument. Now give reasons why you disagree with the above analysis.

 

[s28]

30,000 people have voted in a This Morning poll

59% Corbyn ; only 26% May

 

[Syed1]

As a complete illiterate when it comes to UK politics I always wondered why the Labour party is called 'Tories'

It also comes as quite a surprise to me that UK doesn't have a two party system.

 

[JaDed]

As a complete illiterate when it comes to UK politics I always wondered why the Labour party is called 'Tories'

It also comes as quite a surprise to me that UK doesn't have a two party system.

Tories are supporter of conservatives.
Also UK has parliamentary system like Canada,Pak,India why would they have only 2 parties?

 

[Nostalgic]

As a complete illiterate when it comes to UK politics I always wondered why the Labour party is called 'Tories'

It also comes as quite a surprise to me that UK doesn't have a two party system.

Its just like Canada, without the aboots and the ehs. Aren't the Conservatives called Tories in Canada too?

 

[Robert]

It is an ancient term derived from Gaelic meaning 'outlaw'. Simplistically, the Cavaliers of the English Civil War were the original Tories and Roundheads were the Whigs.

 

[Yossarian]

Any of those believing that Labour will be annihilated and the Tories will get a 100 - 150 majority wish to address the points in the OP?

Also, just to put it into context, in 1997 Labour won 418 seats, Conservatives won 165 seats, Liberal Democrats won 46 seats, with the rest going to around 10 other parties, giving Labour an overall majority of 179

 

[Junaids]

Any of those believing that Labour will be annihilated and the Tories will get a 100 - 150 majority wish to address the points in the OP?

Also, just to put it into context, in 1997 Labour won 418 seats, Conservatives won 165 seats, Liberal Democrats won 46 seats, with the rest going to around 10 other parties, giving Labour an overall majority of 179

I have already agreed with you!

I wrote this earlier, but it's hidden in the wrong thread! ........

Trust me, there are plenty of us on the Conservative side who don't like austerity. I couldn't stand George Osborne - he made my skin crawl - but I think that Theresa May's background makes her the sort of Tory who would like a ladder of upward opportunity for the less privileged, which is where things like Grammar Schools come in.

But I'd make two other points.

Firstly, the insane fishwife economics of Margaret Thatcher has left us with a situation in which any party proposing to raise taxes is unelectable. And now the tax haul is far too small to fund a modern European society, but nobody accepts the alternative of an American-style economy of the working poor having no healthcare and no prospect of ever retiring.

Nobody buys their car or house with cash. It's normal and acceptable to borrow. Austerity economics are insane. And I say that as a Conservative. With a mortgage. And two car loans.

Secondly, as I flagged earlier and debated with [MENTION=7774]Robert[/MENTION], this is the ideal election to lose. Brexit - which I support - will cause substantial economic buffeting, and will require a transitional deal with the EU which will prolong the arrival of Eastern Europeans and enrage the electorate.

I disagree with [MENTION=7774]Robert[/MENTION] about the Liberals. I probably belong in the old SDP with the likes of David Owen, Woy Jenkins, Bill Rogers and Shirley Williams.

But I know that the coalition with Cameron and Osborne made the Liberal Democrats toxic for a generation to all traditional Liberals.

I think that SDP was actually to the right of the Liberals - and was where Tony Blair actually belonged.

And after the coalition with the Tories, the seats which the Liberal Democrats were lost en masse because:

1) The 40% of their vote which was centre-left went back to Labour, but in seats that Labour could not win, which let the Conservatives win those seats. But I don't think that those voters will vote Corbyn or Farron - they will abstain.

2) The 20% of the Liberal Democrat vote which leans centre-right went Conservative because they were desensitized to the Tories by having had 5 years in government with them. I think they will move back to the Liberal Democrats for anti-Brexit reasons.

3) The core centrist 40% of Liberal Democrat voters have not moved at all.

I just don't think that that will be enough to deliver many previously-lost seats back to the Liberal Democrats.

Personally I think that Labour will still end up with almost as many seats as they currently have.

2010: Tories 36.1% 302 seats, Labour 29% 258 seats, Liberal Democrats 23% 57 seats.
2015: Tories 36.9% 330 seats, Labour 30.4% 232 seats, Liberal Democrats 7.9% 8 seats.

I have my doubts that we will see the dramatic changes that are being flagged.

The truth is, at the 2015 election the Conservative vote stagnated.

What actually happened was that a large part of the Liberal vote moved to Labour - in seats that Labour was never going to win - but the Scottish Labour vote moved to the SNP due to two critical errors by Ed Miliband. The first error was to oppose Scottish independence. The second error was to reject in advance forming a coalition government with the SNP. The two alienated every socialist Scot who supports independence within the EU.

Yes, Theresa May will win. But I suspect that the Conservative vote will go up from 36.9% to a maximum of 38%, and that the number of additional Tory seats won will be paltry, because:

1. The Liberal Democrat voters willing to vote Tory in marginal C/LD seats already did in 2015.
2. Many of those Liberal Democrat voters who voted Tory in 2015 and delivered the extra 28 Tory seats will not vote for a Brexit government.
3. Disgruntled Labour centre-left voters might vote Liberal Democrat, but they won't vote Tory.

 

[Yossarian]

[MENTION=291]junaid[/MENTION]
Appears as if despite being on the opposite edges of the centre ground (ie left of centre and right of centre), we both agree on the likely outcome and the reasons behind it.

 

[Junaids]

[MENTION=291]junaid[/MENTION]
Appears as if despite being on the opposite edges of the centre ground (ie left of centre and right of centre), we both agree on the likely outcome and the reasons behind it.

I actually don't think you and I are far apart!

If the Liberal Democrats and SNP had any brains they could easily deliver a hung parliament, simply by making this a single issue - Brexit - election.

There are so many seats that the Tories won from the Lib Dems in 2015 which would revert back if this became a purely Brexit election.

 

[s28]

Have you guys seen the tactical voting spreadsheet doing the rounds. Targeted tactical voting could kill Tories. 900 yes just 900 votes gave them majority last time.

900 out of 40,000,000 electorate !

 

[James]

I don't think the gamble will fail. May's objective was to gain a significantly increased parliamentary majority (at least another 50 seats) to make passing legislation a relative breeze, and she will more than likely deliver on this objective.

 

[KingKhanWC]

It could fail if Labour hit them hard with big promises, risky but could work.

1. Promise a new EU referendum. Many who voted out are regretting their decsion.

2. Promise to turn back some cuts by funding them by cutting the military budget. People are sick of Britain going around the world fighting wars for no reason.

Trump was behind Clinton but won, the same is unlikey but possible here too.

 

[s28]

They need to be careful how they make that work. Otherwise Tories will just go back to age old attack of tax and spend Labour. They need to sell a bigger cogent bottom-up vision with action addressing many of the key domestic front issues like Housing, Health, Education, Jobs / Conditions and focus on making sure Corporates/The 1% pay their share of tax which they have not been doing in last 10 years. There are some simple things like reversing Tory tax giveaways which would raise enough instantly to fund major promises.

They should forget Brexit it's not a vote winner for them it's a loser.Lose Brexiters to Tories/UKIP and lose Remainers to Lib Dems. They are pitched correctly right now as 'for the 100%'

I'd imagine from a game theory perspective there would be better chance of a good outcome from a Brexit negotiation led by Starmer/Thornberry than Davis/Johnson

By the way for those who talk about Lib Dems as the 'Remain' option Farron is refusing to rule out coalition with Tories. So you can vote Farron for Remain but he will sell you out and support a Tory Party ideologically wedded to Brexit and Hard Brexit at that

 

[Yossarian]

I don't think the gamble will fail. May's objective was to gain a significantly increased parliamentary majority (at least another 50 seats) to make passing legislation a relative breeze, and she will more than likely deliver on this objective.

So which of the points I listed in the OP do you disagree with that will generate that 50+ majority?

In my opinion, when you break it all down and look at the various different elements (ie the points listed in the OP) then getting that 50 - 100+ majority is not going to be as easy as it's being made out to be.

Already today there are early signs that Theresa May is going to have a rough ride fighting off the charge that she's untrustworthy because she keeps making U turns after repeatedly stating something different. Wait for her to do another U turn on her refusal to take part in tv debates with other party leaders. She's refusing because she's afraid she'll perform badly. if she thought she'd do well, she'd be rushing to take part in tv debates. In fact she'd be demanding they take place!

 

[Yossarian]

I actually don't think you and I are far apart!

If the Liberal Democrats and SNP had any brains they could easily deliver a hung parliament, simply by making this a single issue - Brexit - election.

There are so many seats that the Tories won from the Lib Dems in 2015 which would revert back if this became a purely Brexit election.

There's not much more that the SNP can do, other than perhaps take the single remaining seat that the Tories currently have in Scotland. So it's a bit unfair to blame the SNP for a Tory majority.

 

[chacha kashmiri]

The way I see it

May needs a clearer majority and more MPs that favour her as well as maybe a new cabinet and also to win a popular vote
Corbyn just needs a consolation in keeping most of his seats and doing better than miliband

The battle will be won as in most western elections by someone who is a libertarian for women voters and someone who speaks for the majority of the people,the white working class

Brexit is a bad battle line as it's already been decided what most the country wants and corbyn too is not anti brexit
Corbyn will fight for the under provilledged , the voiceless and anti establishment as he always has without succumbing to the mosque vote or the bradree vote which has been the undoing of brown and miliband

Corbyn will win the ethnic minority vote but the question is that does that automatically disqualify him from the white working class/ukip vote which undone miliband
Then there's the youth vote which will be encouraged by both the May party to get young people into politics and also by corbyn to fight against injustice etc which has been characterised by the likes of Naz shah etc

The NHS ,university fees, working conditions amongst cuts and immigration will be the main battle lines as with most recent elections and the most extreme and 'left-wing' the unions go the more votes May will get in most likelihood

IMO whoever wins the vote of the white van man who will win a clear majority and with Corbyn likely to become entrenched by partisan politics and become more embattled than even Miliband due to his two popular vote wins ,May will seem like fresh air and will win more seats than David Cameron did

 

[s28]

NateSilver weighs in

"Don't trust highly error prone UK polls"

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-u-k-snap-election-is-riskier-than-it-seems/

 

[Robert]

Any of those believing that Labour will be annihilated and the Tories will get a 100 - 150 majority wish to address the points in the OP?

It's a good point about many Labour MPs sitting on huge majorities in 2015. But Corbyn is so toxic that many Labour voters will not bother, or will make protest votes.

You just can't argue with a 18-20% lead. We are used to a plus or minus 2% error margin so at worst the Tories have a 16 point lead. Miliband had a 3% lead and lost.....

 

[Junaids]

It's a good point about many Labour MPs sitting on huge majorities in 2015. But Corbyn is so toxic that many Labour voters will not bother, or will make protest votes.

You just can't argue with a 18-20% lead. We are used to a plus or minus 2% error margin so at worst the Tories have a 16 point lead. Miliband had a 3% lead and lost.....

I doubt that, actually.

How many marginal seats are in play?

 

[the Great Khan]

I had a dream where I met the devil and he showed me the result. 150 plus margin for May.. mark my words..

 

[s28]

<blockquote class="twitter-video" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">This election will be a battle of hope vs fear. Don't listen to those who say change never happens - they're the ones running scared. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/GE17?src=hash">#GE17</a> <a href="https://t.co/lrAJkbUfZr">pic.twitter.com/lrAJkbUfZr</a></p>— #EL4C (@EL4JC) <a href="https://twitter.com/EL4JC/status/855025968494333952">20 April 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[GLORY OF '92]

Corbyn is a joke.

Don't like May much but Corbyn isn't viable.

Labour have self destructed since Blair/Brown.

 

[Gabbar Singh]

I doubt that, actually.

How many marginal seats are in play?

There are around 70 seats with a majority less than 3k - spread across all parties. And another 60 ish seats with a majority between 3000 and 5000.


http://www.politicsresources.net/area/uk/mps-maj.htm

 

[s28]

With that in mind this is really encouraging...

https://www.gov.uk/performance/register-to-vote/registrations-by-age-group

hundreds of thousands registering to vote

 

[s28]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">I am not and probably never will be a Labour supporter. However I will be voting for the first time and I'll be voting for <a href="https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn">@jeremycorbyn</a></p>— Akala (@akalamusic) <a href="https://twitter.com/akalamusic/status/855509212201439233">21 April 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[Specialisttailender]

Things aren't looking great for liberals around the world.

 

[Robert]

Things aren't looking great for liberals around the world.

Oh, I don't know. Trudeau is Canadian PM, Macron is making a run at the French Presidency.

 

[irfan]

Oh, I don't know. Trudeau is Canadian PM, Macron is making a run at the French Presidency.

Having listened to Macron a great deal he talks alot but says very little, he is another globalist neoliberal loon and is Blair's 'son', France does not need 'Anglo-Saxon' economics.

 

[Robert]

Having listened to Macron a great deal he talks alot but says very little, he is another globalist neoliberal loon and is Blair's 'son', France does not need 'Anglo-Saxon' economics.

What are Anglo-Saxon economics?

 

[s28]

The ideology which allows untrammelled capitalism and massive asset price crashes like 2008 followed by years of austerity for the common people

 

[irfan]

What are Anglo-Saxon economics?

Please see
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglo-Saxon_model

 

[Robert]

Please see
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglo-Saxon_model

Ah, thank you. British capitalism is subject to greater constraint from government that US capitalism, however.

I favour the Nordic Model of capitalism where collective bargaining between employer and employee groups is moderated by government, combined with free markets and free trade in a bid to set limits on inequality.

 

[irfan]

Ah, thank you. British capitalism is subject to greater constraint from government that US capitalism, however.

I favour the Nordic Model of capitalism where collective bargaining between employer and employee groups is moderated by government, combined with free markets and free trade in a bid to set limits on inequality.

fine but you're not going to get that voting Conservative or Lib Dem, only Corbyn's Labour Party is offering something akin to the Nordic system, in such countries what he offers is considered mainstream centre left certainly not anything radical in my opinion; consider Melenchon in France now that is someone who is a proper leftie.

 

[s28]

https://www.opendemocracy.net/can-e...orbyn-mainstream-scandinavian-social-democrat

 

[Robert]

fine but you're not going to get that voting Conservative or Lib Dem, only Corbyn's Labour Party is offering something akin to the Nordic system, in such countries what he offers is considered mainstream centre left certainly not anything radical in my opinion; consider Melenchon in France now that is someone who is a proper leftie.

I'm not going to vote for Corbyn. It's nothing to do with his policies, which seem like the socialism I remember from my youth. It's all to do with his lack of ability, which I am shocked that youngsters don't recognise. Seems that authenticity is more important to them than job competence.

 

[James]

I'm not going to vote for Corbyn. It's nothing to do with his policies, which seem like the socialism I remember from my youth. It's all to do with his lack of ability, which I am shocked that youngsters don't recognise. Seems that authenticity is more important to them than job competence.

If I count as a youngster (27), then I am very aware of Corbyn's lack of ability.

I may vote Green this time. Good policies.

 

[shaz619]

[MENTION=43583]KingKhanWC[/MENTION] who did you vote as the West Midlands Mayor?

 

[s28]

This 'competence' myth is something we the public get sold by the MSM. So if you have fallen for the competence narrative it shows that you are simply susceptible to MSM narrative control techniques. Of course you can neither admit that to yourselves or anybody else on here. It's called Cognitive Dissonance.

 

[s28]

In The First Week Of Election Campaigning, Corbyn Has Outperformed May Significantly

22/04/2017 17:20

Flying start - two words that sum up the beginning of Labour’s general election campaign. In five days, Jeremy Corbyn has shown he has the passion and the plan in place to transform Britain in the interests of the many.

Already, Corbyn has outperformed May significantly, dominating the news agenda and travelling across the country to lay out Labour’s vision for a rebuilt and transformed Britain.

Since the election was called on Tuesday, Corbyn has visited Birmingham, Croydon, Swindon, Cardiff, Bristol, Manchester, Crewe and Warrington to announce his sweeping plans for investment in our economy, a better education system, and a transfer of wealth and power from the gilded elites to ordinary people.

Labour’s determination to win has been noticed. Much of the media are becoming increasingly frustrated by May’s refusal to defend her record. No TV debates, heavily stage managed events with audience members ordered to not speak to the press, and press shunned from campaign events. Contrast this to Jeremy Corbyn, who used his campaign launch to engage with media questions on his vision for Britain, and answered every question put to him - easy to do when you are standing up for everyone’s interests, rather than vested interests.

As Theresa May travels on a helicopter between closed campaign events, Corbyn is meeting the people he will stand up for as Prime Minister. At a visit to a Sure Start centre on Friday, Corbyn set out his plan to put a stop to the Conservative’s mismanagement of our education system and improve our children’s futures by properly funding all schools - so pupils aren’t forced to learn in class sizes of more than 40. And in true Corbyn style, he even took some time to read ‘We Are Going on a Bear Hunt‘ to the very children being attacked by the government’s cuts.

Corbyn has provided us with a timely reminder about the power gap in this country - and how a tiny group of elites have a stranglehold on Westminster, the press, business and the economy, and use that stranglehold to hoard wealth and cause everyone else to suffer. We get seven years of austerity that fails to balance the budget, and they get corporate tax cuts and inheritance tax cuts for the wealthiest. For all her inclusive rhetoric, May cannot dodge her way around those facts.

Both parties are yet to publish their manifestos, but the policies Labour has announced so far will protect our public services, grow our economy, and put more money in the pockets of middle and low earners.

There’s six weeks to go, and a lot of ground to make up. But if Corbyn and Labour have started as they mean to go on, the contrast of the approaches of the two candidates to be Britain’s next Prime Minster will become clearer and clearer. As June 8 nears, it will become ever more likely that the conventional wisdom that things can’t be changed - that our country must be run in the interests of the powerful and super-rich - will be overturned. And then together, under a Labour government, we will build a fairer, more prosperous and more decent society.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/kerry-lanigancoyle/jeremy-corbyn-general-election_b_16172284.html

 

[s28]

Just to demonstrate how the people are not allowing MSM to control narrative

An ITV This Morning poll with 145,000 votes has Corbyn at 67% vs May at 20%

Whilst a poll by the minor celebrity/activist @MxJackMonroe has Corbyn way ahead of May

 

[James]

What is the 'MSM Competence Narrative?' Absolute shedload of nonsense being spouted in some posts.

I just use my own reasonably well-developed brain to read a situation and form a judgment. I am employed as an operational manager by a FTSE 100 company, and I have been successful over an extended period in this role, so I essentially trust myself to analyse situations independently - and I am usually right.

Who watches This Morning? Students and the Unemployed? Not exactly your core Tory voting base. Working people have their heads down long before 9:25am on a weekday morning.

<B>@BritainElects
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 45% (+7)
LAB: 26% (-3)
LDEM: 11% (+4)
UKIP: 9% (-5)
GRN: 3% (-2)
(via Opinium / 19 - 20 Apr)</B>

I think I will trust the above figures above a This Morning poll.

 

[James]

2 new articles from the Mirror and the Guardian today, both left-wing publications, putting the Tories on 46-50% of the popular vote.

So the question really is, not who will win - rather, how much solid evidence needs to be presented for Corbyn's supporters to accept that the electorate will reject him?

 

[s28]

Wow an operational manager for a FTSE100. I'll just bow down to your obvious superiority. We are clearly all in exulted company.

I think you sort of lose the argument when you are the door of the club and you've not been let in and you're reduced to shouting "Do you know who I am?"

 

[Specialisttailender]

Oh, I don't know. Trudeau is Canadian PM, Macron is making a run at the French Presidency.

His decline is already taking place, liberals popularity at federal and provincial is on a free fall.

 

[James]

Wow an operational manager for a FTSE100. I'll just bow down to your obvious superiority. We are clearly all in exulted company.

I think you sort of lose the argument when you are the door of the club and you've not been let in and you're reduced to shouting "Do you know who I am?"

Well that's the terse kind of response that you will get when you insinuate that other people are stupid because they don't agree with your views.

MSM Competence Narrative, Narrative Control Techniques, seriously dude get out more.

 

[Robert]

Farron says he will not enter into Coalition with the Tories because of Brexit, or into coalition with Labour because of Brexit-enabling.

 

[Robert]

If I count as a youngster (27), then I am very aware of Corbyn's lack of ability.

I may vote Green this time. Good policies.

Sure. You have an understanding of how capable managers operate, because you are one and you work with others.

I think a lot of youngsters subconsciously feel that they are Harry or Hermione and Corbs is Dumbledore - a kindly old man there to guide and protect them from the scary Tories.

 

[James]

Sure. You have an understanding of how capable managers operate, because you are one and you work with others.

I think a lot of youngsters subconsciously feel that they are Harry or Hermione and Corbs is Dumbledore - a kindly old man there to guide and protect them from the scary Tories.

LOL - well observed. Unfortunately in this cruel universe Corbs does not possess the Elder Wand.

 

[s28]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The spreadsheet for strategic voting against the Tories is now a website and a movement <a href="https://t.co/j8crD0nozO">https://t.co/j8crD0nozO</a></p>— The Independent (@Independent) <a href="https://twitter.com/Independent/status/856088924225196032">23 April 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[the Great Khan]

as for labour policies not being costed, they are fully costed! I can post you the costings if you want..enough of this barainwashed garbage!! working together? my friend you need a reality check..he has been facing a rebellion from day one, he should have sacked the lot of them..you dont work together with peole who want to stab you in the back..the irony will be most of these traitors will probably lose their seats!!

 

[s28]

 

[the Great Khan]

The british electorate..i mean if youw ant the tories to decimate the NHS go right ahead and continue voting for them..theyll do that then blame the immigrant for destroying the NHS..typical..

 

[Robert]

His decline is already taking place, liberals popularity at federal and provincial is on a free fall.

Vive Macron! Vive l'En Marche!

 

[GBK_Fan]

I'm going to go against the general consensus and play the Devil's advocate:

* Don't forget that 48% of the public voted Remain. How many of them will now be prepared to vote for the Tories and 'hard' Brexit?

* The Tories are not going to pick up extra seats in Scotland (they currently have one MP in Scotland), Wales or Northern Ireland.

* So in order to get a majority of around 100, the Tories will need to pick up around 45 seats net (ie allowing for some losses to the Liberal Democrats, especially in the South West where the Tories took the seats from the Liberal Democrats in 2015, with relatively small majorities), meaning picking up 60 odd seats from Labour - all of them in England.

* Most of the Labour seats left after the 2015 disaster are large majority Labour core seats. The 'not 100% comitted Labour' voters already left in 2010 and 2015. Meaning not many of the core Labour voters still around after 2015 are now going to switch to Tory, including those who voted for Brexit.

* Some aspects of a hard Brexit are already being seen/ being admitted as not going to work out as the Brexiteers were told. e.g. Brexit Secretary David Davis himself admitted that EU immigration numbers (a key factor for Brexit voters) are unlikely to reduce much.

* Some Labour arguments against Tory policies (eg grammar schools, NHS) are in sync with voters concerns, whilst some Labour policies are popular with voters.

* Part (albeit not all) of the reason for Corbyn's unpopularity amongst voters is as the result of Blairites and many other Labour MP's having spent the last two years trying to get rid of Corbyn, even to the extent of wanting to lose council elections and Parliamentary byelections to make Corbyn look bad.
But now they will be forced to campain in support of Labour (and Corbyn since he's the Labour Party Leader) or risk losing their seats especially since Labour Party members/local activists (who are pro Corbyn) will not do the door-to-door donkey work for them otherwise.

And last but not least.

The right-wing media has been vehementally anti-Corbyn from the start. Either not giving him any publicity, or only giving him bad publicity by highlighting every little anti-Corbyn rant by anti-Corbyn Labour MP's. But now, under General Election rules, Corbyn and Labour have to be given the same amount of coverage as Theresa May and the Tories.

Yes, Theresa May and the Tories will win. But not by the massive margins forecast, especially if the polls start to narrow. (Tories need a lead of around 9% ahead of Labour in the polls just to maintain their current 10 or so majority!)

And all of that if nothing out of the ordinary takes place in the next 6 weeks (such as Trump bombing someone and starting a war that the UK public doesn't agree with, but Theresa May gives backing to Trump nevertheless)

Anyway, that my 'Devil's Advocate' argument. Now give reasons why you disagree with the above analysis.

Reposting following suggestions from Mods.

I will be voting in the UK elections for the first time this year and probably will be voting for the Tories. I find it difficult to understand why someone will vote Corbyn, maybe you can convince me:

* Labour and Corbyn reluctantly lobbied for remain. I still remember Corbyn rating 7/10 on the important scale. Even now, he has no real game plan of what will happen if he gets elected and has to negotiate Brexit
* His inability to work with leaders with different ideals. As much as you call them Blarities or any other term, they are members of your party. Over the last 2 years he has failed to engage a large chunk of his own party base who will now vote lib dem. How can I then realistically expect him to work with the Trumps and Putins of the world?
* Most of his policies are populist and he has no clear answers where the funding will come from. If he is going to tax me more, he won't get my vote.
* His inability to hold the Tories to question even when they are backed into indefensible positions, points to his lack of preparation and poor argumentative skills. Skills desirable in someone running for office and particularly negotiating Brexit
* No support crew. His policies mean most of the capable people within his party won't work with him. We are the left with one dimensional leaders like Dianne Abbott.

 

[GBK_Fan]

as for labour policies not being costed, they are fully costed! I can post you the costings if you want..enough of this barainwashed garbage!! working together? my friend you need a reality check..he has been facing a rebellion from day one, he should have sacked the lot of them..you dont work together with peole who want to stab you in the back..the irony will be most of these traitors will probably lose their seats!!

First up dude, learn to have a conversation without resorting to name calling. If he cannot handle a rebellion within his party, how is he going to hold a country together? Or the only solution is to steam-roll the aspirations of the sections who donot agree with him?

 

[GBK_Fan]

Thanks for the image.

* Reverse the cut in corporation tax
How does this help bring in jobs, especially post Brexit?
* Renationalize the railways
This will only help unionize the staff, remove competition and innovation. Frankly I am not in favour of this step. We dont need the state to branch out in all areas of public life.
* Build more council houses with private participation
Thats unrealistic and it will only mean that the cost will be passed onto new home buyers. As someone who wants to buy a house some time in the near future, I am not excited about this move. We definitely need more social housing, but at the same time we need to ensure that it is made available to the vulnerable sections of the society and not people who make a living off benefits with no aim of getting back on their feet.
* End zero hour jobs
Thats not beneficial for SME. You can talk to any new start-up on the block and they will tell you the same.
* Salary caps for CEO's bidding for government contracts
Why is the state dictating what the salaries should be in private companies?
* Your document also missed the much-maligned wealth tax. It makes no sense that we tax the rich for being more enterprising or successful, to fund the poor.

 

[s28]

Don't talk down this Country please. Everything is possible.

 

[Robert]

#corbynsurge in Wales...

Welsh local election voting intention:

LAB: 28% (-9)
CON: 26% (+13)
PC: 19% (+2)
UKIP: 8% (+7)
LDEM: 7% (-1)
OTH: 12% (-10)

(via YouGov)

If that is replicated in the GE then it will be seismic.

 

[Yossarian]

Reposting following suggestions from Mods.

I will be voting in the UK elections for the first time this year and probably will be voting for the Tories. I find it difficult to understand why someone will vote Corbyn, maybe you can convince me:

* Labour and Corbyn reluctantly lobbied for remain. I still remember Corbyn rating 7/10 on the important scale. Even now, he has no real game plan of what will happen if he gets elected and has to negotiate Brexit
* His inability to work with leaders with different ideals. As much as you call them Blarities or any other term, they are members of your party. Over the last 2 years he has failed to engage a large chunk of his own party base who will now vote lib dem. How can I then realistically expect him to work with the Trumps and Putins of the world?
* Most of his policies are populist and he has no clear answers where the funding will come from. If he is going to tax me more, he won't get my vote.
* His inability to hold the Tories to question even when they are backed into indefensible positions, points to his lack of preparation and poor argumentative skills. Skills desirable in someone running for office and particularly negotiating Brexit
* No support crew. His policies mean most of the capable people within his party won't work with him. We are the left with one dimensional leaders like Dianne Abbott.

I guess you failed to grasp the gist of the post. The points you've listed are trying to suggest why the majority of voters will not vote for Labour.

The OP is not arguing against that aspect, but simply breaking down into separate elements the areas where the Tories need to pinch additional votes/seats (on top of the Labour and Liberal votes/seats the Tories pinched last time) in order to get that 100+ majority everyone is talking about.

Here let me explain it for you:

Say for example:
W represents normally Tory voters.
X represents normally Liberal voters
Y represents normally Labour voters.
Z represents committed, will never vote Tory no matter what, die hard Labour voters.

The OP is simply pointing out that the Tories already have W, and convinced most of X and Y to vote Tory in 2015 in order to get the 10 or so majority they currently have.

But in order to increase that majority to 100+, the Tories will have to (in addition to W) keep Y whilst also persuading large chunks of Z to switch to Tory in this election, and in the meantime ensuring that they dont lose too many X voters/seats back to the Liberals.

Hopefully that should be a bit clearer for you.

 

[GBK_Fan]

I guess you failed to grasp the gist of the post. The points you've listed are trying to suggest why the majority of voters will not vote for Labour.

The OP is not arguing against that aspect, but simply breaking down into separate elements the areas where the Tories need to pinch additional votes/seats (on top of the Labour and Liberal votes/seats the Tories pinched last time) in order to get that 100+ majority everyone is talking about.

Here let me explain it for you:

Say for example:
W represents normally Tory voters.
X represents normally Liberal voters
Y represents normally Labour voters.
Z represents committed, will never vote Tory no matter what, die hard Labour voters.

The OP is simply pointing out that the Tories already have W, and convinced most of X and Y to vote Tory in 2015 in order to get the 10 or so majority they currently have.

But in order to increase that majority to 100+, the Tories will have to (in addition to W) keep Y whilst also persuading large chunks of Z to switch to Tory in this election, and in the meantime ensuring that they dont lose too many X voters/seats back to the Liberals.

Hopefully that should be a bit clearer for you.

You don't have to be patronising. I believe Corbyn supporters should learn to have a conversation without being condescending or name calling.

You listed a few positive points for Labour and talked how the gamble could fail for May. In my post, I have pointed out that Corbyn needs to do more, much more if he wants to retain his existing voter base. At the moment it seems Lib dems, Tories and UKIP are eating into his voter base and he has no clue how to stop them. If you only wanted to talk about May's gamble, you should probably not concentrate on Corbyn as your OP does.

 

[Yossarian]

You don't have to be patronising. I believe Corbyn supporters should learn to have a conversation without being condescending or name calling.

You listed a few positive points for Labour and talked how the gamble could fail for May. In my post, I have pointed out that Corbyn needs to do more, much more if he wants to retain his existing voter base. At the moment it seems Lib dems, Tories and UKIP are eating into his voter base and he has no clue how to stop them. If you only wanted to talk about May's gamble, you should probably not concentrate on Corbyn as your OP does.

It's not patronising when pointing out how a poster has simply failed to comprehend the gist of the post, and is simply regurgitating most of the Tory and Blairite arguments against voting Labour (which, admittedly, most - but not all - voters are swallowing hook, line and sinker). The OP is being objective and raising a discussion by digging deeper into the demographics of the voter base, whilst your post was simply a party political broadcast.

 

[s28]

<blockquote class="twitter-video" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The first week of the General Election campaign summed up in 38 seconds.<a href="https://t.co/hkrLtWE8ik">pic.twitter.com/hkrLtWE8ik</a></p>— Eoin Clarke (@LabourEoin) <a href="https://twitter.com/LabourEoin/status/856976267589165056">25 April 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[Yossarian]

Someone from the Tory party must be monitoring PakPassion, must have read this thread/OP, and brought it to the attention of their gurus.

Conservatives warned: don't take 'landslide' election win for granted

Strategists fear voters may turn to other parties to reduce scale of anticipated victory as Theresa May tries to woo people away from Labour in Wales


Conservative strategists are warning that the current crop of opinion polls suggesting Theresa May will cruise to victory in June’s general election could dissuade voters from turning out to vote for the party.

The belief is that a landslide “election narrative” may also encourage others to back Labour and other opposition parties simply in an attempt to minimise the scale of the anticipated majority, prompting the prime minister to warn about the issue on Tuesday.

On a campaign visit to Wales, May said: “Remember, the opinion polls were wrong in the 2015 general election, they were wrong in the referendum, and Jeremy Corbyn himself has said that he was a 200-1 outsider for the Labour leadership in 2015 – and look where that got him,” she told Tory activists at a community centre in Bridgend.

A Conservative source called it a “real concern” because of the “potential impact on voter choice”. Another said the idea of a 100-plus majority was an exaggeration, although they did confirm that internal polling suggested the Conservatives believed they could be dozens of seats ahead after the 8 June vote.

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...artlands-with-vow-to-stop-ducking-social-care

 

[Robert]

You don't have to be patronising. I believe Corbyn supporters should learn to have a conversation without being condescending or name calling.

You listed a few positive points for Labour and talked how the gamble could fail for May. In my post, I have pointed out that Corbyn needs to do more, much more if he wants to retain his existing voter base. At the moment it seems Lib dems, Tories and UKIP are eating into his voter base and he has no clue how to stop them. If you only wanted to talk about May's gamble, you should probably not concentrate on Corbyn as your OP does.

I don't think Corbynism was ever about winning elections. These people would not know what to do if elected as all they understand is how to protest. Corbynism is about reshaping the Labour Party. I expect Labour will lose fifty MPs in June but that will be fine for the hard left because they will stay in their protesting, angry comfort zone. They live for this stuff.

Then in another ten years the Tories will have privatised most NHS services and we will look back on the Blair period as a golden age.

 

[GBK_Fan]

I don't think Corbynism was ever about winning elections. These people would not know what to do if elected as all they understand is how to protest. Corbynism is about reshaping the Labour Party. I expect Labour will lose fifty MPs in June but that will be fine for the hard left because they will stay in their protesting, angry comfort zone. They live for this stuff.

Then in another ten years the Tories will have privatised most NHS services and we will look back on the Blair period as a golden age.

Couldn't agree more. Most of my colleagues who were traditional labour supporters are now moving over to the Lib dems. No one I know thinks Corbyn is fit for the job. He has had a number of opportunities to put Tories on the ropes in the last 2 years and has failed to cash in every time. May will win, probably increasing her lead to be 50+, Lib dems will be no 2 and I see Labour being 3rd

 

[Madplayer]

I need to do some reading to understand whats going on lol. I look at the posts here and realize how little i know about British political system especially the current scenario. Any links to help me understand this would be appreciated.

 

[James]

Shocking how well Tories may do in Wales & Scotland, and maybe even ok by their standards in the North of England too. Didn't think I would see it in my lifetime

 

[s28]

.<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/dh_Og-MjWZI" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

[s28]

This is a brilliant heartfelt blog which shows one persons perspective on Jeremy Corbyn. Well worth a read if you have time.

https://itcouldbeyoumh.wordpress.com/2017/02/17/we-mustnt-talk-about-jeremy/

 

[Robert]

I loved that show. I could name the whole Tory and Labour front benches because of them. How they would tear into Trump, May, Boris and Corbyn now.

 

[s28]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Zac Goldsmith now standing again + Lynton Crosby hired by May. It's ALMOST as if the Tories unrepentant for racist London mayoral campaign</p>— Afua Hirsch (@afuahirsch) <a href="https://twitter.com/afuahirsch/status/856989875027013633">25 April 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[Robert]

Come on Sarah Olney there again!

Trouble is Labour may be more organised this time and take centre votes.....

 

[s28]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Why it might be worth a punt on a Corbyn win <a href="https://t.co/i70HaMVnUB">https://t.co/i70HaMVnUB</a></p>— Sky News (@SkyNews) <a href="https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/857906554565271552">28 April 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[Robert]

It won't happen unless Labour take Scotland back, and they are trailing in third place, astonishingly, behind the Tories. The SNP has made Labour obsolete in Scotland.

 

[s28]

Tory 'lead' cut from 20s% to 10s% and polls are out by +/- 15% i.e. they are b.s. especially so if from Tory Yougov

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Westminster voting intention:<br><br>CON: 44% (-1)<br>LAB: 31% (+2)<br>LDEM: 11% (+1)<br>UKIP: 6% (-1)<br>GRN: 2% (-1)<br><br>(via YouGov / 27 - 28 Apr)</p>— Britain Elects (@britainelects) <a href="https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/858456868729098245">29 April 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[s28]

<blockquote class="twitter-video" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Author China Mieville says we “underestimate” the extent to which the political establishment pour scorn on the politics of <a href="https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn">@jeremycorbyn</a> <a href="https://t.co/9T05B044t7">pic.twitter.com/9T05B044t7</a></p>— Channel 4 News (@Channel4News) <a href="https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/859360129233424384">2 May 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[Robert]

Tory 'lead' cut from 20s% to 10s% and polls are out by +/- 15% i.e. they are b.s. especially so if from Tory Yougov

>

The polls tend to underestimate the actual Tory vote - this happened in 1992 and 2015 - as plenty of people are ashamed to admit to voting Tory. Similarly in the Referendum there were a few Brexiteers liars. I have known polls to be about by 2%, not 15%. Look at the poll of polls to even out the variances.

 

[s28]

No thanks Robert. I'd rather trust a real independent expert like Nate Silver than your cognitive dissonance

 

[Robert]

No thanks Robert. I'd rather trust a real independent expert like Nate Silver than your cognitive dissonance

Cognitive dissonance can be described as trying to resolve two conflicting beliefs by accepting a comfortable delusion.

I have just the one belief in this regard - that broadly speaking I trust the pollsters, bearing in mind that they can be wrong by a 2% error margin.

I don't cherrypick evidence which support the position I have chosen in advance, which is what you do - hoping that Labour will win, you have convinced yourself that the polls are wrong, even though they have been pretty reliable historically.