There are seven matches to go in the Super 12 stage of the ICC Men’s T20 World Cup but only one team has a guaranteed spot in the semi-finals.
Pakistan, with their win over Namibia on Tuesday, ensured that they will be in the final four, leaving only one open spot in Group 2.
New Zealand, Afghanistan, India and Namibia are still mathematically in the running for that semi-final place in what could be a thrilling conclusion to the Super 12 stage. But it’s all getting very tight in the race for that second qualification place, with Scotland the only team out of contention.
In Group 1, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are both out while England are almost certain to go through after four wins from four. Australia’s dominant win over Bangladesh puts them in a strong position to qualify, thanks to the massive boost to their net run rate which went from -0.627 to +1.031.
After West Indies’ loss to Sri Lanka, South Africa and Australia are the two other teams still in Group 1 qualification contention.
While their hopes of progressing at the current tournament have been dashed, Scotland, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh all have something to play for with automatic qualification to the Super 12 stage of the next T20 World Cup up for grabs.
Following Thursday’s results, we look at what each team needs to do to reach the next stage of the tournament.
GROUP 1
Minimum points to reach semi-finals: Six points
Maximum points needed to reach semi-finals: 10 points
ENGLAND
First – Eight points – four matches - NRR of 3.183
Remaining opponents: South Africa
What they need to do to reach the semi-finals: They’re basically there
England have all but locked down their spot in the final four with eight points from four games.
While both Australia and South Africa can still join England on eight points, not only would they each have to win their remaining games – for the Proteas that includes a match against England – they would need to win significantly enough to overturn England’s massive NRR lead.
A victory over South Africa in their final group game would take NRR out of the equation and cement their already stone-tight grip on top spot.
In short: They’re virtually already into the semi-finals.
AUSTRALIA
Second – Six points – four matches – NRR of +1.031
Remaining opponents: West Indies
What they need to reach the semi-finals: Win and hope
A thumping win over Bangladesh has nullified the effects of the drubbing they received at the hands of England, but their fate is still not completely in their hands.
Currently second in the table on NRR, Australia face West Indies in their final game of the Super 12.
A win would not guarantee Australia a place in the semi-finals if South Africa manage to beat England by a margin that would take their net run rate above Australia’s.
Similarly, even if Australia lose against West Indies, they could still qualify as long as South Africa too lose their game against England.
In short: Beat West Indies in the final game and hope England beat South Africa or South Africa don’t beat England by a big margin.
SOUTH AFRICA
Third – Six points – Four games – NRR of 0.742
Remaining opponents: England
What they need to reach the semi-finals: Win and hope
South Africa bounced back well since their opening defeat against Australia but their fate, just like the Aussies, is not entirely in their own hands.
Australia leapfrogged the Proteas to the second spot in the standings on net run rate, thanks to their massive win over Bangladesh.
Their scenario is very similar to that of Australia - a win in the final game doesn’t guarantee them a spot in the final four but neither would a loss completely rule them out.
In both cases, it would come down to the result of Australia vs West Indies and who beat who by what margin.
In short: Beat England by a big enough margin to go over Australia on NRR or hope West Indies beat Australia by a margin that reduces Australia's NRR
SRI LANKA
Fourth – four points – five matches – NRR of -0.269
Though Sri Lanka were out of the semi-final reckoning before their game against West Indies, the win puts them in contention for automatic qualification to the Super 12 stage of the ICC Men’s T20 World Cup 2022 in Australia.
From the 12 automatic qualifiers for next year’s tournament, the winner and runner up of the ICC Men’s T20 World Cup 2021 plus the next six highest-ranked teams - as of November 15 - will go straight through to the Super 12 stage of Australia 2022.
Sri Lanka sit 10th in the T20I rankings right now, but could yet enter the Super 12 2022 automatic qualification spots if results go their way.
WEST INDIES
Fifth – Two points – four games – NRR of -1.557.
Remaining opponents: Australia
Defending champions West Indies’ campaign got off to the roughest of starts against England, with their NRR decimated after being bowled out for 55. Their hopes were hurt further in an eight-wicket defeat against South Africa before they revived their campaign with a three-run win over Bangladesh.
Needing to win the two games against Sri Lanka and Australia to qualify for the semi-finals, West Indies faltered at the first hurdle as they lost to the Islanders by 20 runs.
However, the game between Australia and West Indies will not be a dead rubber, given there’s a lot on the line for both teams. While the Aussies will be vying for a place in the semi-finals, West Indies, currently eighth in the ICC T20 Team Rankings, will be fighting for Super 12 qualification for next year’s World Cup.
BANGLADESH
Sixth – zero points – six matches – NRR of -2.383
Bangladesh were out of contention before the game against Australia but the manner in which they lost would have been demoralising for the whole team.
They go back with zero wins in the Super 12 stage.
The defeat means it will be a tense wait to see if they need to begin next year's ICC Men’s T20 World Cup 2022 campaign in the tournament's First Round.
GROUP 2
Minimum points to reach semi-finals: Four points
Maximum points required to reach semi-finals: Eight points
PAKISTAN
First – Eight points – Four games – NRR of 1.065
Remaining opponents: Scotland
What they need to do: One win to lock down top spot
Alongside England, Pakistan have looked like the team to beat at this tournament, defeating India by 10 wickets before impressive wins over New Zealand, Afghanistan and Namibia.
Their victory over Namibia locked in their spot in the semi-finals.
They’ll need to win their final match to guarantee a first-place finish to avoid a likely semi-final against world No.1 England.
In short: One more win to go into the semi-finals unbeaten.
AFGHANISTAN
Second – Four points – four games – NRR of 1.481
Remaining opponents: New Zealand
What they need to do: Beat New Zealand and finish with a superior NRR to any team tied on six points
Afghanistan’s heavy loss to India has made their position in Group 2 far less stable.
They now must beat New Zealand in their final group game to qualify, and even then a victory in that match may not be sufficient, although they do still have the best NRR in the group.
Lose to New Zealand and they are certainly out.
If the next set of Group 2 results go to form and New Zealand beat Namibia and India beat Scotland, then it will all come down to NRR if Afghanistan beat the Black Caps on Sunday.
The NRR permutations on the final day are not yet clear, but it could be the case that India play Namibia in the final game of the Super 12 stage knowing exactly what they need to do in order to finish in second place in the group.
It would also come down to NRR if Afghanistan beat New Zealand and Namibia manage victories over the Black Caps and India.
In short: Victory over New Zealand could be enough, but NRR is still vital
NEW ZEALAND
Third – Four points – three games – NRR of 0.816
Remaining opponents: Namibia, Afghanistan
What they need to do: Win their remaining matches
On paper, New Zealand have got their two toughest games out of the way, suffering a loss to Pakistan before winning comfortably against India. That has them firmly on course for the semi-finals.
If they win their remaining two matches they will be guaranteed a spot in the next stage.
A victory over Afghanistan paired with a loss to Namibia would see them relying on both India and Namibia's results and NRR.
A win over Namibia and then a defeat to Afghanistan would also see it come down to NRR, with three teams potentially level on six points after five matches.
Afghanistan have the edge currently over New Zealand on NRR, and India have the advantage of playing the last game in the group so would know exactly the permutations involved.
In short: Winning their remaining matches seals a semi-final spot
INDIA
Fourth – Two points – three games – NRR of 0.073
Remaining opponents: Scotland, Namibia
What they need to do: Win big and hope
Among the pre-tournament favourites, India found themselves on the brink of elimination after just two matches following heavy defeats against Pakistan and New Zealand.
The big win over Afghanistan helped, but their likeliest road to the semi-finals is registering further huge wins over each of their next two opponents while hoping Afghanistan beat New Zealand by the barest of margins so they can catch up on NRR.
Any loss would end India’s qualification hopes, and if New Zealand win their remaining games then there is nothing India can do.
In short: India need a favour from Afghanistan against New Zealand and more big winning margins
NAMIBIA
Fifth – Two points – Three games – NRR of -1.600
Remaining opponents: New Zealand, India
What they need to do: Win their remaining matches and hope
Having registered a famous win over Scotland in their first ever Super 12 match, Namibia are still in the chase despite chastening defeats to Afghanistan and Pakistan.
If they win both their remaining matches, they will have a chance to reach the semi-finals. Of course, that won’t be easy given their next two opponents are New Zealand and India.
They are relying on other results as is and, given their NRR, even two victories over their much-fancied opponents is unlikely to be enough.
Still, there is a chance.
In short: Mathematically Namibia are still in qualification contention
SCOTLAND
Sixth – Zero points – three games – NRR of -2.645
Remaining opponents: India, Pakistan
What they need to do: Have fun and fly home
A heavy first-up defeat against Afghanistan before losses to Namibia and New Zealand has left Scotland with no chance of progressing from the Super 12.
In terms of the 2022 tournament, Scotland's ICC T20I ranking at 14th looks unlikely to improve enough to avoid the First Round stage in Australia - they can climb as high as 11th on the rankings if they beat India and Pakistan.
But their qualification for this Super 12 stage does mean that the Scots are guaranteed to feature at the next World Cup and two famous wins here would be the perfect precursor of things to come.
In short: Pride to play for
