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In 2025, relations between India and Pakistan plunged into their worst crisis in decades. Following a deadly attack in Pahalgam, New Delhi suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, shut the Wagah–Attari border and withdrew diplomatic staff — moves that triggered Islamabad to close its airspace, suspend trade and suspend the Simla Agreement.
The escalation peaked when India launched Operation Sindoor, launching air and missile strikes on 7 May, prompting Pakistan retaliation; the conflict, which shocked the region and involved drone and missile exchanges, only ended after a U.S.-brokered ceasefire on 10 May.
These events severely damaged trust: cultural exchanges all but vanished, visa bans and trade halts remained, and cross-border people-to-people ties froze.
Still, some diplomatic voices, like those at the think-tank IPAC, called for renewed talks and long-term dialogue rather than constant conflict.
Looking ahead to 2026, the prospects for genuinely improved India-Pakistan relations depend on both pragmatism and political will — but the path will be extremely narrow. Given how quickly tensions flared in 2025 and how deeply bilateral trust was shattered, returning to even a fragile normal may require careful, step-by-step rebuilding through low-stakes confidence-building measures: think humanitarian cooperation, water talks, or cultural back-channels.
If both governments resist the temptation to leverage bilateral ties for domestic political gains and instead prioritise stability, there remains a sliver of hope for moderated tensions and conditional reconciliation. However, any fresh security incident — terror attack or border clash — risks undoing progress instantly, so 2026 could be a year of delicate calm or sudden flashpoints.
The escalation peaked when India launched Operation Sindoor, launching air and missile strikes on 7 May, prompting Pakistan retaliation; the conflict, which shocked the region and involved drone and missile exchanges, only ended after a U.S.-brokered ceasefire on 10 May.
These events severely damaged trust: cultural exchanges all but vanished, visa bans and trade halts remained, and cross-border people-to-people ties froze.
Still, some diplomatic voices, like those at the think-tank IPAC, called for renewed talks and long-term dialogue rather than constant conflict.
Looking ahead to 2026, the prospects for genuinely improved India-Pakistan relations depend on both pragmatism and political will — but the path will be extremely narrow. Given how quickly tensions flared in 2025 and how deeply bilateral trust was shattered, returning to even a fragile normal may require careful, step-by-step rebuilding through low-stakes confidence-building measures: think humanitarian cooperation, water talks, or cultural back-channels.
If both governments resist the temptation to leverage bilateral ties for domestic political gains and instead prioritise stability, there remains a sliver of hope for moderated tensions and conditional reconciliation. However, any fresh security incident — terror attack or border clash — risks undoing progress instantly, so 2026 could be a year of delicate calm or sudden flashpoints.
