Dean Smith and co will be hopeful of avoiding a relegation scrap this time around but reinforcements are required
Guardian writers’ predicted position: 15th (NB: this is not necessarily Paul Doyle’s prediction but the average of our writers’ tips)
Last season’s position: 17th
On 2 May 1981 a former Trappist monk hijacked a plane over Heathrow and threatened to blow it up unless the Pope revealed the third secret of Fatima. Down below, in Highbury, Aston Villa lost to Arsenal but were crowned champions of England because Middlesbrough beat Ipswich. This is planet Earth.
Villa lifted the European Cup the following year but they have yet to regain the title and – here comes the bold prediction – they’re not going to win it this season. But with two billionaire owners intent on restoring past glories, they plan to get much closer than last term, or at least avoid another near-relegation experience.
“If we remain in the league then we have certainly got the power to compete with some of the other big clubs,” said Dean Smith during last season’s great escape. But his squad has yet to change despite his wish to recruit early. Villa’s fate will hinge on what happens ibefore the closure of the transfer window and how quickly arrivals adapt.
Behind the scenes they have been busy. They have a new sporting director, luring Johan Lange from FC Copenhagen to replace Jesús García Pitarch, who carried the can for last season’s struggles. Smith also got an extra, experienced assistant manager in Craig Shakespeare, the former Leicester manager (and a boyhood Villa fan who attended the above-mentioned match at Highbury). But no new players yet.
The spine of the side needs to be reinforced. A new goalkeeper is a priority, with Tom Heaton not scheduled to return from knee ligament damage until October at the earliest. Ørjan Nyland did well in last season’s Carabao Cup but the fact he lost his place for the run-in to Pepe Reina, whose loan has expired, suggests Smith is not convinced the Norwegian is solid enough to be No 1. After all the hard work Villa did to mend their defence, they need a keeper they can totally trust.
They also need a reliable goalscorer. Last year’s major recruit, Wesley, was starting to look sharp just before he, too, suffered a knee ligament injury. Nobody knows how soon he will get back to his best nor whether his best will be good enough. Ali Samatta, rushed in to replace Wesley, started brightly but lost his way, serving neither as a fulcrum nor a finisher. Keinan Davis showed he could hold up the ball well but putting it in the net is a skill he has yet to master. Indiana Vassilev makes cute runs but, at 19, is not ready to carry an attack.
Villa also need speed. A shortage of it restricted Smith’s options last season. When the team defended deep, they were not fast enough to strike regularly on the counterattack. If they poured forward, they left themselves vulnerable to counters and their own panicking. The formula that worked best, and went a long way towards helping them survive, was to keep compact and make maximum use of set pieces.
Which brings us to the qualities Villa do have. They have class in central midfield thanks to the fit-again John McGinn and, in particular, the artful Douglas Luiz, who, after a slow start last season, developed into an instigator of attacks and vigilant protector of defence.
Villa’s defensive improvement also owed much to the strides made by Tyrone Mings and Ezri Konsa, with the latter growing into a dependable partner for the England man, leaving Bjorn Engels with plenty to prove to get back into the side.
Villa’s full-backs are useful but it would be no surprise if Smith invested in upgrades to tighten up the left and improve the supply to forwards from the right, especially as the right-sided wingers offered little consistency, although by the end Trézéguet suggested he was closer than Anwar El Ghazi to being a Premier League force.
Other than Conor Hourihane’s set pieces, the chief supplier to Villa’s forward line last season was, as ever, Jack Grealish, even though he was uncharacteristically patchy after lockdown. If he stays he will again be instrumental in most of their attacks. If he gets a move to a Champions League-chasing club then Villa will have to buy even more players and take the opportunity to develop them into a team whose attack is less reliant on one wandering marvel.
The manager
On the touchline: Every boyhood Villa fan dreams of running the team from the dugout but Smith still reckons the view is better from the stands, which is why he took advantage of the absence of crowds to watch home games from just behind the dugout. He also altered his dress code, preferring leisurewear to the black suit and white shirt combo he wore before lockdown.
On Zoom: Even when deep in the relegation swamp and with some fans calling for his head, Smith remained affable and lucid, losing neither his cool nor his belief that his team would survive.
The key
Douglas Luiz arrived just before the start of last season and took time to get to grips with the Premier League but once he did so he ran Villa’s midfield and was critical to their survival. He protected the defence and instigated attacks, helping to provide a platform on which others, including Grealish, could flourish.
The owners
Wes Edens and Nassef Sawiris, both billionaires, teamed up to buy Villa in 2018, having previously collaborated in the purchase of a professional video gaming team, FlyQuest. Edens also co-owns the Millwaukee Bucks NBA team while Sawiris’s other businesses include the world’s biggest supplier of nitrogen fertiliser. Smith is understood to prefer a prolific striker.
Young blood
Vassilev joined Villa after impressing at the 2017 World Cup and finally made his Premier League breakthrough with four appearances off the bench. A versatile forward who can play wide or centrally, he has been praised by Smith for the intelligence of his runs and was rewarded with a new contract in May.
New blood
No signings yet.
Kit story
Villa changed colours regularly in their infancy – sadly the chocolate and baby blue stripes introduced in 1886 did not stick – but settled on claret and blue for the maiden football league season in 1888 and those have been their colours since.
Notes from an empty stadium
“All aboard! Hahahahahaha!” There you have the opening words to Ozzy Osbourne’s Crazy Train, which is still blared around Villa Park before kick-off even with no one in attendance, which, come to think of it, is probably only right. That’s about it as far as atmosphere goes, apart from the banners displayed from fan groups, from Dubai to Perry Barr.
Euros vision
When Heaton suffered a serious knee injury on New Year’s Day that looked to be the end of his hopes of appearing at a major tournament. But the postponement of Euro 2020 gave the goalkeeper extra time to recover and, if he gets back to his best with Villa, he can aspire to playing for England next summer at the age of 35.
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2020/aug/31/premier-league-2020-21-preview-no-2-aston-villa
