British Politics: the Mega-Thread

[Robert]

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...th-support-labour-ebbs-away-blair-sedgefield?

This article has to be read to be believed )

"I'd rather be a satellite of America than Europe."

Another guy whose company literally exports into the European Single Market wants to leave anyway.

And the cherry on the cake:

You all deserve a no-deal Brexit and the ensuing chaos.

You have the usual comments by people who don’t really think about politics. But Labour’s problem is Corbyn, it’s clear as day. Labour need a real leader.

 

[Technics 1210]

Poor LUDs, raising an official complaint because their leader, Jo Swinson, was snubbed at the ITV debate. She even went on to claim it is because she is a woman. That didn't go down too well, LDs slipping big time.

 

[The Viper]

Botham and PM's brother to join House of Lords

Former England cricket captain Sir Ian Botham is to join the House of Lords, the government has confirmed.

The 64-year-old, a strong supporter of Brexit, is among 36 new peers, who also include former Chancellors Ken Clarke and Philip Hammond.

Jo Johnson, the prime minister's Remain-supporting younger brother, who quit as a minister last year in protest at government policy, will join them.

Ex-Labour MPs Frank Field, Kate Hoey and Gisela Stuart become peers too.

And Philip May, husband of former Prime Minister Theresa May, gets a knighthood for "political service".

Sir Ian, who played 102 Test matches for England between 1977 and 1992, is an advocate of field sports and a prominent Brexit supporter who was knighted in 2007, in recognition of his services to charity and cricket.

His most famous moment on the field came in 1981 when he inspired a sensational defeat of Australia. After retirement, he became a commentator and started his own wine label.

He will sit as a crossbench - independent - peer.

Jo Johnson, who stood down as an MP at December's general election, resigned from the government last September, saying he was "torn between family loyalty and the national interest".

Mr Clarke and Mr Hammond were among 21 Conservative MPs who lost the party whip last autumn when they rebelled against Mr Johnson in a bid to prevent a no-deal Brexit.

Ruth Davidson - who quit as Scottish Tory leader last August after eight years in the role, saying the idea of spending long periods away from her young son filled her with "dread" - also becomes a peer.

She will not take her seat in the House of Lords until after she stands down from the Scottish Parliament at next year's election.

'Massive U-turn'
The Speaker of the House of Lords, Lord Fowler, criticised the decision to award 36 peerages, calling the list "a lost opportunity to reduce numbers".

He said: "The result will be that the House will soon be nearly 830 strong - almost 200 greater than the House of Commons. That is a massive policy U-turn."

Evgeny Lebedev, owner of the Independent and the London Evening Standard, becomes a peer, as does Charles Moore, former Daily Telegraph editor and biographer of ex-Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher.

Mr Johnson and his partner Carrie Symonds attended a party hosted at Annabel's nightclub, west London, by Mr Lebedev shortly after the Conservatives' election victory.

Other politicians who will enter the House of Lords include former Conservative Party chairman Sir Patrick McLoughlin, former Tory culture minister Ed Vaizey and Nigel Dodds, previously deputy leader of the Democratic Unionist Party.

Of the Labour MPs honoured, Ms Hoey and Ms Stuart were prominent pro-Brexit campaigners during the 2016 EU referendum.

The prime minister's chief strategic adviser, Sir Edward Lister, gets a peerage, but there is no honour for former House of Commons Speaker John Bercow, despite retired holders of the office usually joining the Lords.

The government did not put Mr Bercow's name forward, despite it being proposed by former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn.

Lord Newby, Liberal Democrat leader in the House of Lords, said: "By giving a large number of his cronies peerages, [Mr Johnson] has shown that the Tories have abandoned any pretence of reducing the size of the bloated House of Lords."

For the SNP, MP Pete Wishart accused the prime minister of "handing out jobs for life in the unelected House of Lords to friends and those who have done him favours".

"The prime minister's idea of levelling up involves gifting his cronies, damaging policy facilitators, and family members with jobs as legislators for life - with no democratic mandate or accountability to people across the UK.

"It's the worst kind of cronyism that only highlights the rotten Westminster system that is detached from reality."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-53606083

 

[Gabbar Singh]

Wonder where we’d be now (putting covid to one side) if MPs had voted for Theresa May’s Brexit deal. EU-phile MPs must be kicking themselves now as her deal was simply brexit in name only. Yet MPs thought they’d be smart and it has ultimately led to (or will soon enough) a pretty clean break type of brexit.

 

[Robert]

I wonder what the (likely) imminent fall of Trump will do in Britain and round the world going forward. Will right wing populism go out of fashion, to replaced with more moderate and pragmatic governments?

 

[Markhor]

All hell is breaking loose it seems with the virus.

Sage, the government's scientific advisory group asked for a second national circuit breaker lockdown on Sep 21. Government may be forced by soaring infection rates to introduce one whether they like it or not.

This idea we can simply shield the elderly and allow youngsters to roam free is for the birds, especially when so many live in intergenerational households.

 

[Markhor]

Think the Tories might have shot themselves in the foot by voting against the extension of free school meals to the holidays, especially Northern Tory MPs in low income seats. Whilst I think personally parents must be primarily responsible for feeding their children, these are unprecedented times as the pandemic causes major economic hardship.

 

[Gabbar Singh]

Think the Tories might have shot themselves in the foot by voting against the extension of free school meals to the holidays, especially Northern Tory MPs in low income seats. Whilst I think personally parents must be primarily responsible for feeding their children, these are unprecedented times as the pandemic causes major economic hardship.

Agree.

Also the money involved is peanuts in the grand scheme of things. And it’s not as if this is a government which is super careful when spending money, it’s the opposite, they’ve been spending billions left, right and centre and sometimes don’t even care where the money ends up - for example leaving open back doors to furlough/bounce back loan fraudsters or spending millions on consultants to try and fix the multi billion £ track and trace joke of a project.

 

[Markhor]

Agree.

Also the money involved is peanuts in the grand scheme of things. And it’s not as if this is a government which is super careful when spending money, it’s the opposite, they’ve been spending billions left, right and centre and sometimes don’t even care where the money ends up - for example leaving open back doors to furlough/bounce back loan fraudsters or spending millions on consultants to try and fix the multi billion £ track and trace joke of a project.

100%.

 

[James]

It’s a major unforced error from the Government.

Doing free school meal vouchers for a week or two would have cost pennies in comparison to the other costs that the Treasury is shouldering at the moment. The parliamentary vote “against“ is turning into a PR catastrophe.

After their historic high of popularity, post the election of Boris and pre the Covid peak, public opinion now seems to be on a gradual but notable trajectory of swinging against the Tory Party.

 

[ElRaja]

Think the Tories might have shot themselves in the foot by voting against the extension of free school meals to the holidays, especially Northern Tory MPs in low income seats. Whilst I think personally parents must be primarily responsible for feeding their children, these are unprecedented times as the pandemic causes major economic hardship.

the tory party has alienated literally everyone, old school right wingers are peeved about the restriction of freedom cos of lockdown, younger right wingers are peeved about the economic damage of the lockdown, the economic expansionism could have been justified if the economy had been given some breathing room but the fall out from the eventual tightening that will follow will destroy any chance of a quickish recovery.

the tory party has nailed its own coffin, i see no way out and a high likelihood of some form of non tory alliance taking power in the next election, which im guessing will lead to the rise of another more extreme right wing party, a la ukip, or more hopefully a party with a modern interpretation of classical individual and economic liberal values.

perhaps im being a bit knee jerk, but i see this as the beginning of the end of the party, in its current post dave cameron guise at least.

 

[Robert]

And yet the Tories are still polling at 40%.

 

[Technics 1210]

the tory party has alienated literally everyone, old school right wingers are peeved about the restriction of freedom cos of lockdown, younger right wingers are peeved about the economic damage of the lockdown, the economic expansionism could have been justified if the economy had been given some breathing room but the fall out from the eventual tightening that will follow will destroy any chance of a quickish recovery.

the tory party has nailed its own coffin, i see no way out and a high likelihood of some form of non tory alliance taking power in the next election, which im guessing will lead to the rise of another more extreme right wing party, a la ukip, or more hopefully a party with a modern interpretation of classical individual and economic liberal values.

perhaps im being a bit knee jerk, but i see this as the beginning of the end of the party, in its current post dave cameron guise at least.

UKIP was on the rise after 2008; austerity.

UKIP was created when Tories signed up to the EU and included ex-tory members. The fact UK is pulling out of the EU now has all but ensured any chance of a comeback for UKIP-esq parties is virtually nil.

Tories still have 4 years; and a massive majority in THC. I wouldn't rule out Tories yet - Maggie did more damage to the North and working class, and lasted 3 terms.

 

[James]

And yet the Tories are still polling at 40%.

It’s less about immediate numbers imo. More about trajectory.

The Tory-Labour poll split has been on an extreme narrowing trajectory since the end of March.

Back when the public was putting its trust in the Tories to lead us out of this pandemic — and conversely Labour’s popularity was at an all-time low, due to Corbyn’s colossal electoral failings and his extremely long & drawn-out resignation process.

Back then the split was 54% to 26%.

Now, with the Tories gradually falling out of favour, and Starmer slowly and steadily rebuilding the Labour Party’s credibility, the two parties are neck-and-neck on 40% apiece.

That’s a swing of 14%.

I expect this trend to continue.

 

[Yossarian]

And yet the Tories are still polling at 40%.

Just like the Trump supporters in the States.
I recall some Trump supporters, who freely admit that their businesses went bankrupt as a direct consequence of Trump's imposition of tariffs on steel and other Chinese products, still intending to vote for him.

It's like the blue collar workers in places like Sunderland who voted for Brexit, and likely to be amongst the first to be hit, if there is no Free Trade deal with the EU.

 

[Robert]

It’s less about immediate numbers imo. More about trajectory.

The Tory-Labour poll split has been on an extreme narrowing trajectory since the end of March.

Back when the public was putting its trust in the Tories to lead us out of this pandemic — and conversely Labour’s popularity was at an all-time low, due to Corbyn’s colossal electoral failings and his extremely long & drawn-out resignation process.

Back then the split was 54% to 26%.

Now, with the Tories gradually falling out of favour, and Starmer slowly and steadily rebuilding the Labour Party’s credibility, the two parties are neck-and-neck on 40% apiece.

That’s a swing of 14%.

I expect this trend to continue.

Ugh, why didn’t he just go, like Kinnock and Miliband?

Ah well, he’s gone at last and the Labour front bench is credible again.

 

[James]

Ugh, why didn’t he just go, like Kinnock and Miliband?

Ah well, he’s gone at last and the Labour front bench is credible again.

Corbyn’s entire political career has been an unmitigated disaster. I suppose he had to end it just as embarrassingly and poorly. Or else it wouldn’t have felt right.

A four-month resignation, after Labour’s worst defeat in the best part of a century, is certainly one way to go.

 

[ElRaja]

And yet the Tories are still polling at 40%.

says more about the rest of the british political landscape than the tories, post covid post brexit britain will be ripe for a new party to emerge imo, where it does, i.e. the left or the right, im not sure.

UKIP was on the rise after 2008; austerity.

UKIP was created when Tories signed up to the EU and included ex-tory members. The fact UK is pulling out of the EU now has all but ensured any chance of a comeback for UKIP-esq parties is virtually nil.

Tories still have 4 years; and a massive majority in THC. I wouldn't rule out Tories yet - Maggie did more damage to the North and working class, and lasted 3 terms.

i didnt mean exactly like ukip, just that the political landscape would be ripe for another party to come in because a lot of people seem disenfranchised with modern british politics imo

maggie thatcher had a very loyal following of non party member tory voters, i dont think johnson will ever have anything close, however as u say he has time on his side.

 

[Technics 1210]

says more about the rest of the british political landscape than the tories, post covid post brexit britain will be ripe for a new party to emerge imo, where it does, i.e. the left or the right, im not sure.



i didnt mean exactly like ukip, just that the political landscape would be ripe for another party to come in because a lot of people seem disenfranchised with modern british politics imo

maggie thatcher had a very loyal following of non party member tory voters, i dont think johnson will ever have anything close, however as u say he has time on his side.

History has taught us that austerity is the main reason behind the rise of the right.

I would also say that more people are disenfranchised with British politics today after Liberals/Remainers were hell bent on undermining a democratic vote in 2016 (still at it). British people have lost trust in the system, the government, and democracy.

My guess is if Tories cannot improve the economy in 2 to 3 years, we will se more coallitions.

 

[ElRaja]

History has taught us that austerity is the main reason behind the rise of the right.

I would also say that more people are disenfranchised with British politics today after Liberals/Remainers were hell bent on undermining a democratic vote in 2016 (still at it). British people have lost trust in the system, the government, and democracy.

My guess is if Tories cannot improve the economy in 2 to 3 years, we will se more coallitions.

and the tories will have to go on a austerity drive again after the expansive response to covid-19, given they have completed put a hand brake on the economy, restarting that in a tightening fiscal environment will be very difficult.

i understand the disenfranchisement tho, unless the assumed status quo does not get validated by popular opinion its somehow a crisis, the sign of a healthy democracy is that you can have room for everyone to speak but we live in an era of encroaching limitations of various kinds, where it is better to drive contrarian opinion underground than to discuss and debate whats really happening, and disturbingly it is the younger more educated class that is promoting it.

 

[DeadlyVenom]

Corbyn’s entire political career has been an unmitigated disaster. I suppose he had to end it just as embarrassingly and poorly. Or else it wouldn’t have felt right.

A four-month resignation, after Labour’s worst defeat in the best part of a century, is certainly one way to go.

Corbyn done a tremendous job of rallying younger disenfranchised voters. The media backlash against him is genuinely something I have never seen before. He was backstabbed numerous times by his own party despite having the backing of the membership.

The Labour party actually lost a lot of seats in the last election due to the remain and second referendum policies championed by his now successor.

 

[Robert]

My MP (Tory) is getting an absolute hammering on FB over school meals. 650 posts so far, nearly all outraged.

 

[Robert]

Corbyn done a tremendous job of rallying younger disenfranchised voters. The media backlash against him is genuinely something I have never seen before. He was backstabbed numerous times by his own party despite having the backing of the membership.

The Labour party actually lost a lot of seats in the last election due to the remain and second referendum policies championed by his now successor.

Having a big youth fan club does not make a leader.

It’s no good blaming the media. Remain was an issue but Labour activists in the North will tell you that for every vote lost that way, three more were lost because Corbyn was not seen as a credible PM-in-waiting - lacking in brains, gravitas and even the most basic understanding of Britishness such the words to the National Anthem and knowing the time on Christmas Day that the Queen’s Speech goes out.

The leader has to be able to lead - and that means command the PLP. Corbyn did not have the ability to do that, and should have stepped down after the no confidence motion.

 

[DeadlyVenom]

Having a big youth fan club does not make a leader.

It’s no good blaming the media. Remain was an issue but Labour activists in the North will tell you that for every vote lost that way, three more were lost because Corbyn was not seen as a credible PM-in-waiting - lacking in brains, gravitas and even the most basic understanding of Britishness such the words to the National Anthem and knowing the time on Christmas Day that the Queen’s Speech goes out.

The leader has to be able to lead - and that means command the PLP. Corbyn did not have the ability to do that, and should have stepped down after the no confidence motion.

Remain was the major issue - as evidenced by the way the Brexit Party swept the EU elections.

I don't mean this sarcastically but have you spoken to these labour activist in the North directly? My own experience has been that many traditional labour voters were supportive of Corbyn's left wing economic proposals but couldn't identify with left wing identity politics. The Britishness aspects didn't really come into it , apart from a minority of voters. So i'd be interested in hearing the perspective of others.

 

[Robert]

Remain was the major issue - as evidenced by the way the Brexit Party swept the EU elections.

I don't mean this sarcastically but have you spoken to these labour activist in the North directly? My own experience has been that many traditional labour voters were supportive of Corbyn's left wing economic proposals but couldn't identify with left wing identity politics. The Britishness aspects didn't really come into it , apart from a minority of voters. So i'd be interested in hearing the perspective of others.

To tell the truth I read that in New Statesman. I live in another part of the country, where Corbyn poison among mature and elder voters (the main voting bloc).

The politics I quite liked but the frontman was wrong. If Corbyn had given way in 2016 and the much more capable Fielding taken over I think we would have had a second referendum on Brexit and be heading for a Labour election win.

 

[James]

YouGov spoke to a representative group of 500 “Labour-to-Tory” switch voters from the Red Wall, and identified that the main reason (35% of instances) for the switch was Corbyn himself.

Not Corbyn’s economics, not his identity politics — just him.

Brexit came in a clear second place, at 19%.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politic...3/their-own-words-why-voters-abandoned-labour

The verbatim is fascinating, and generally quite strongly worded.

It was Corbyn’s personal connections, his political persona and his mountains of baggage which put people off voting for him as our PM.

It’s true that the media slammed him in their highlighting of all this negative history — but it had to be there in the first place to be highlighted.

(Don’t get me wrong. Boris is a disaster as well.)

 

[DeadlyVenom]

^ Two interesting posts and some food for thought.

 

[Robert]

When Biden becomes 46 there could be tough days ahead for Johnson:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/25/johnson-dangerously-close-to-one-us-president-wht-if-biden-wins

 

[Technics 1210]

YouGov spoke to a representative group of 500 “Labour-to-Tory” switch voters from the Red Wall, and identified that the main reason (35% of instances) for the switch was Corbyn himself.

Not Corbyn’s economics, not his identity politics — just him.

Brexit came in a clear second place, at 19%.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politic...3/their-own-words-why-voters-abandoned-labour

The verbatim is fascinating, and generally quite strongly worded.

It was Corbyn’s personal connections, his political persona and his mountains of baggage which put people off voting for him as our PM.

It’s true that the media slammed him in their highlighting of all this negative history — but it had to be there in the first place to be highlighted.

(Don’t get me wrong. Boris is a disaster as well.)

I assume the other 65% switched because of Brexit.

I still find it odd anyone would switch to an opposition party, not because of policies, but because of image. Very bizzare statistic.

 

[James]

I assume the other 65% switched because of Brexit.

I still find it odd anyone would switch to an opposition party, not because of policies, but because of image. Very bizzare statistic.

Politics is often largely about image.

 

[Technics 1210]

Politics is often largely about image.

Of course, but what happened to loyalty to the party? The 35% didn't have to vote Tory (unless because of Brexit).

What's more bizzare is Labour members voted for Corbyn, twice, and he ended up with a larger share of the vote the second time!

 

[Robert]

When Biden becomes 46 there could be tough days ahead for Johnson:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/25/johnson-dangerously-close-to-one-us-president-wht-if-biden-wins

Thinking more about this.

Johnson thinks that if Trump wins he can go for crash-out Brexit, break the GFA and retain political capital by getting a face-saving trade deal with Trump.

But if Biden wins - and barring a political earthquake in the next nine days he will - Johnson has nowhere to go. Biden is a big Irishman, very proud of his heritage and despises Johnson for those racist slurs made about Obama. Biden will insist that the GFA is protected. He wants to build trade alliances against China and so will be pro-EU, repairing all the fences that Trump burned.

So in a Biden Presidency, a hard-Brexiting UK is alone and shivering in the cold wind.

And the EU27 leaders know this! Suddenly a UK-EU free trade deal which protects the GFA looks much more likely.

 

[Robert]

When Biden becomes 46 there could be tough days ahead for Johnson:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/25/johnson-dangerously-close-to-one-us-president-wht-if-biden-wins

Talk to me [MENTION=53290]Markhor[/MENTION] and [MENTION=136108]Donal Cozzie[/MENTION] !

 

[Markhor]

Thinking more about this.

Johnson thinks that if Trump wins he can go for crash-out Brexit, break the GFA and retain political capital by getting a face-saving trade deal with Trump.

But if Biden wins - and barring a political earthquake in the next nine days he will - Johnson has nowhere to go. Biden is a big Irishman, very proud of his heritage and despises Johnson for those racist slurs made about Obama. Biden will insist that the GFA is protected. He wants to build trade alliances against China and so will be pro-EU, repairing all the fences that Trump burned.

So in a Biden Presidency, a hard-Brexiting UK is alone and shivering in the cold wind.

And the EU27 leaders know this! Suddenly a UK-EU free trade deal which protects the GFA looks much more likely.

There's no way a Democratic President could support the violation of the GFA with the Irish-American constituency being an important part of their vote bank especially in big cities.

Johnson team's lack of foresight is bewildering though. Regardless of the Presidential race, a trade deal must pass through Congress and Pelosi has repeatedly said any US-UK trade deal that violates the GFA will be vetoed in the House where Democrats are expected to retain control. So why entertain the thought ?

 

[Robert]

There's no way a Democratic President could support the violation of the GFA with the Irish-American constituency being an important part of their vote bank especially in big cities.

Johnson team's lack of foresight is bewildering though. Regardless of the Presidential race, a trade deal must pass through Congress and Pelosi has repeatedly said any US-UK trade deal that violates the GFA will be vetoed in the House where Democrats are expected to retain control. So why entertain the thought ?

It's truly odd. Even if the Dems don't command the House there is bipartisan support for the GFA - the GOP Congressmen want it too.

 

[Donal Cozzie]

Numerous Republican figures have also reiterated that the GFA must be respected. Its a no brainer really, there's massive Irish American influence on both sides of the political spectrum over there.

Personally I feel Trump will be reelected anyway, think people are underestimating how poor a candidate Biden is and how desperate many Americans will be for a full reopening sooner rather than later, regardless of the cost, due to the cutthroat nature of business over there.

 

[Robert]

Numerous Republican figures have also reiterated that the GFA must be respected. Its a no brainer really, there's massive Irish American influence on both sides of the political spectrum over there.

Personally I feel Trump will be reelected anyway, think people are underestimating how poor a candidate Biden is and how desperate many Americans will be for a full reopening sooner rather than later, regardless of the cost, due to the cutthroat nature of business over there.

I suppose there is a possibility that shy Trump voters are pretending to be for Biden out of embarrassment, but these days the pollsters take this into account. I could see him overturn a 2% poll deficit, but not 10%.

We will see. Biden is not a strong candidate but has the advantage of being not-Trump. A lot of floating gave Trump a chance to see if he could drain the political swamp and out of dislike if Clinton, but as he has deepened the swamp and been generally chaotic said floaters appear to have turned against him.

Then the political world will start to look different as the right wing populists collapse in Europe.

 

[Robert]

Polling day in the UK

Lots of elections today:

Welsh Assembly
Hartlepool constituency
Lots of metropolitan Mayors
All the police commissioners
Thousands of council seats

An opportunity to send Johnson a message one way or another, at a time when the two main parties are close in the polls.

Looks like Labour could lose Hartlepool big time, raising questions about Starmer’s leadership.

 

[SpiritOf1903]

Lots of elections today:

Welsh Assembly
Hartlepool constituency
Lots of metropolitan Mayors
All the police commissioners
Thousands of council seats

An opportunity to send Johnson a message one way or another, at a time when the two main parties are close in the polls.

Looks like Labour could lose Hartlepool big time, raising questions about Starmer’s leadership.

Anyone's on a hiding to nothing v these Tories. Doesn't say much for electorate that blatant sleaze and lies are easily masked by bumbling Boris

 

[Robert]

Doesn't say much for electorate that blatant sleaze and lies are easily masked by bumbling Boris

It’s depressing.

I used to have so much belief in people. Corbyn, Brexit, Trump and Johnson really dented that.

 

[the Great Khan]

It’s depressing.

I used to have so much belief in people. Corbyn, Brexit, Trump and Johnson really dented that.

British Muslims got there two decades ago..

 

[James]

The Scottish seats in Holyrood are up too.

All eyes on whether the SNP can get an absolute majority (which they didn’t have in the previous term), as this will result in them practically banging down the Westminster door for another independence vote.

If it is another hung/coalition parliament however, the Tories will spin it as a victory for the Union.

 

[Technics 1210]

I have a top friend running for local elections today. Praying he wins! He's the only guy I know who is literally standing up for what he believes in - and I disagree with him on pretty much everything related to UK politics.

 

[Technics 1210]

Anyone's on a hiding to nothing v these Tories. Doesn't say much for electorate that blatant sleaze and lies are easily masked by bumbling Boris

Nobody cares about sleaze and lies when they have money in their pockets.

 

[SpiritOf1903]

Nobody cares about sleaze and lies when they have money in their pockets.

In Hartlepool?. I can see the lure of voting Tory when you're rich, it's ultimately protecting ones own interests and there's little room for sentiment. But coal mining towns decimated by Thatcher and poor northeastern towns like Hartlepool biting conservative is pure uneducated jingoism.

The apocalypse will be near when Liverpool goes Tory.

 

[SpiritOf1903]

Huge swings in Sunderland. Labour getting crushed. This is ridiculous.

 

[Technics 1210]

In Hartlepool?. I can see the lure of voting Tory when you're rich, it's ultimately protecting ones own interests and there's little room for sentiment. But coal mining towns decimated by Thatcher and poor northeastern towns like Hartlepool biting conservative is pure uneducated jingoism.

The apocalypse will be near when Liverpool goes Tory.

I mean generally. Thatcher and Blair won 3 terms a piece, and it was no coincidence UK experienced the biggest economic booms during their tenure despite Thatcher decimating the North, and Blair with his Iraq lies/antics.

 

[Robert]

Thousands of council seats in play.

I reckon Labour could get really hurt and Starmer forced out.

 

[James]

So the Conservatives have secured 51% of the vote in Hartlepool. That is a massive by-election win for them and a catastrophic defeat for Labour.

The early council results are also showing a significant swing away from Labour as well as many seats lost, with solid gains for the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party.

Depending on how the counting goes over the next day or two, we could be looking at the end of Keir Starmer here.

 

[Robert]

Labour are down 47 councillors already.

Tories making gains.

Lib Dems holding ground so far...

 

[Manunited18]

Conservatives have secured power for at least another decade, even with rife corruption and allegations amongst their ranks. Labour under Starmer are no match.

 

[Robert]

Conservatives have secured power for at least another decade, even with rife corruption and allegations amongst their ranks. Labour under Starmer are no match.

Labour have elected the wrong leader three times in a row.

More importantly - who do they represent? Clearly not post-industrial workers. Young Londoners and Liverpudlians, but who else?

I can see them splitting over this.

 

[OMB]

Elections 2021: Conservatives take Hartlepool from Labour in by-election

Hartlepool has a Conservative MP for the first time since the constituency's creation nearly 40 years ago, after Jill Mortimer won a by-election.

Ms Mortimer beat her closest rival, Labour's Paul Williams by 6,940 votes.

The result is a blow for Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer in his first election test since taking over the party.

But the Conservatives will see it is a sign they are building on their gains in traditional Labour heartlands at the 2019 general election.

Sir Keir had been warning his party had a "mountain to climb" to hang on to Hartlepool, but allies of his predecessor as leader Jeremy Corbyn are calling on him to change direction.

Hartlepool result
Former shadow home secretary Diane Abbott tweeted: "Crushing defeat for Labour in Hartlepool. Not possible to blame Jeremy Corbyn for this result. Labour won the seat twice under his leadership. Keir Starmer must think again about his strategy."


The left-wing Momentum group, which backed Mr Corbyn, said: "Starmer's strategy of isolating the left and replacing meaningful policy with empty buzzwords has comprehensively failed."

But Sir Keir's allies say the defeat, which saw a 16% swing from Labour to the Conservatives, means the party has not changed enough under his leadership.

Former Hartlepool MP Lord Mandelson said he hoped "very much that when Keir and his colleagues in the shadow cabinet say this means that we have got to change direction they actually mean it".

He told BBC Radio 4's Today programme the Hartlepool defeat was down to "two Cs: Covid and Corbyn".

Labour's loss of Hartlepool in a by-election is the most dramatic illustration yet that the party has so far failed to connect with the Leave-supporting, working class voters they lost heavily in 2017 and 2019.

Support for the Brexit Party, which registered 26% in Hartlepool in 2019, collapsed - the successor Reform party secured just 1% of the vote.

It looks as though the Conservatives picked up the Brexit Party's former support, in line with the proportion of Leave voters preferring the Conservatives to Labour to the order of 3/4 to 1.

However, the swing to the Conservatives of 16% is more than can be accounted for by the collapse of the Brexit Party.

Labour's vote fell 9 points to 29%, so the party clearly lost some of its 2019 support, as well as suffering from the movement of Brexit Party voters to the Conservatives.

Part of the explanation may lie in the success of independent candidate, Sam Lee, who won 10% of the vote.

Together with the pattern in key wards there is clearly a debate about whether Labour can win support from Leave voters by ignoring Brexit as it has in the past 12 months.

The Conservative gain of Northumberland council is a further illustration of the success of the Conservatives in Leave voting areas.

There were 16 candidates standing in the Hartlepool by-election, but Conservative Ms Mortimer won with 15,529 votes, while Labour's Mr Williams received 8,589.

She hailed it as a "truly historic" result, saying she was proud to be the first Conservative MP for 57 years.

She said: "Not only that, I am the first woman ever to be elected as MP for this town.

"Labour have taken people in Hartlepool for granted for too long.

"I heard this time and time again on the doorstep and people have had enough and now, through this result, the people have spoken and have made it clear it is time for change."

The result is more evidence of the long term shift in politics where areas that had chosen Labour for decades were less and less convinced.

That didn't start with Boris Johnson and didn't even start with Brexit.

The success of the vaccine programme has no doubt helped the Tories.

But Keir Starmer has questions to answer as well.


The Hartlepool constituency was formed in 1974 and had returned a Labour MP in every vote since - until Thursday's poll.

The seat came back into contention after its former Labour MP, Mike Hill, resigned in March.

The by-election was one of a raft of elections taking place across Britain on Thursday, with voters picking representatives for the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Senedd, as well as mayors and local councils in England, and police and crime commissioners.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-57019456

 

[Markhor]

I sent my votes to Labour in these local elections but it's hard to be sympathetic. It's true they've taken their heartlands for granted for years.

Yes they've been in opposition for 11 years but the rot started before that. New Labour Govt only managed the social and economic decline of these post-industrial towns. They did little to rebalance the economy away from financial services and little to redress regional inequality with a leadership clique seen as too metropolitan and too London centric.

The Tories' Northern Powerhouse is wholly insufficient - West Yorkshire for example got £1.1bn over 30 years from their devolution deal which is a joke !

However the Tories at least recognised they needed to pay attention to the North, and are reaping the benefit - no doubt accelerated by the Brexit referendum and the solidification of the right-wing vote with the collapse of UKIP/Brexit Party.

 

[Markhor]

In Hartlepool?. I can see the lure of voting Tory when you're rich, it's ultimately protecting ones own interests and there's little room for sentiment. But coal mining towns decimated by Thatcher and poor northeastern towns like Hartlepool biting conservative is pure uneducated jingoism.

The apocalypse will be near when Liverpool goes Tory.

The Tories after several decades have finally found their winning formula in the North.

Not because of Thatcherite economic policies (with Thatcher herself a distant memory) but a combination of pork barrel spending and calls to nationalism (Brexit).

In addition, their utter ruthlessness in disposing non-performing leaders. Yes the Conservatives have been in office for 11 years but under 3 Prime Ministers - so people feel there's already been changes of Government.

 

[SpiritOf1903]

The Tories after several decades have finally found their winning formula in the North.

Not because of Thatcherite economic policies (with Thatcher herself a distant memory) but a combination of pork barrel spending and calls to nationalism (Brexit).

In addition, their utter ruthlessness in disposing non-performing leaders. Yes the Conservatives have been in office for 11 years but under 3 Prime Ministers - so people feel there's already been changes of Government.

A debt incurred these people won't contribute towards ... Who knew Tories were the new labour with a added lies sleaze and a funny womaniser in charge who seemingly takes advantage of younger assistants

 

[Technics 1210]

It’s pretty simple. The North voted for Brexit, and The Tories are the choice.

Covid 19 has really helped when you consider the entire EU C19 vaccine debacle has galvanised Brexit.

Boris might be a clown, but he is by far the luckiest of them all - he doesn’t have to be competent, he just has to wait for the EU to mess up, and with Spain now voting for a right-wing Trumpinista, and the situation with France, Brexit is and will be the right choice in the long run.

Add to this BoE’s outlook on the UK economy - Tories are here to stay, and it’ll be 2030 before any other party gets a whiff of 10 Downing Street.

 

[ElRaja]

Covid 19 has really helped when you consider the entire EU C19 vaccine debacle has galvanised Brexit.

Boris might be a clown, but he is by far the luckiest of them all - he doesn’t have to be competent, he just has to wait for the EU to mess up, and with Spain now voting for a right-wing Trumpinista, and the situation with France, Brexit is and will be the right choice in the long run.

hit the nail on the head, covid was supposed to be the ultimate indication of britain being weaker outside europe, but if theres one thing u can have confidence in, it is bureaucracies bungling things up, and bigger bureaucracies bungling on a bigger scale.

fwiw i think a decent oppostion can still take the fight to the tories, there are still so many divisions which could be exploited in a very top heavy tory party, starmer and his labour (which i dont think anyone has any idea what it stands for) are not the party to do it tho.

 

[ElRaja]

also if we see the demographic shift some people predict, of young middle class families moving and buying houses in the north as wfh becomes the norm, i think that will only serve to further strengthen the tory part in what was historically not blue territory.

 

[Firebat]

Election results: PM hails 'very encouraging' wins for Tories as Labour backbenchers turn on Starmer

Sir Keir Starmer is facing calls to "change direction" from Labour's left wing after he became the first leader to see the party lose Hartlepool in 47 years - while Boris Johnson hailed a "very encouraging" set of election results so far.

Labour suffered a "shattering" defeat in Thursday's by-election in Hartlepool as they lost out to the Conservatives by 6,940 votes.

The result boosts the prime minister's majority in the House of Commons and also hands him another brick in Labour's "red wall".

The Hartlepool vote - as well as Thursday's local elections, for which the results are continuing to be counted - were Sir Keir's first major electoral test after just over a year as Labour leader.

And the by-election defeat focused scrutiny on his performance over the last 12 months, with critics from Labour's left wing seizing on the result to urge Sir Keir to adapt his strategy.

Sir Keir was silent as he left his north London home on Friday morning, while Mr Johnson was able to describe "very encouraging" early election results after the Tories also made a handful of gains in English councils.

"I know that the results have been coming in since this morning and clearly a lot more to go and it's early days," the prime minister said on a visit to Coventry.

"But a very encouraging set of results so far and I think that's really because we've been focussing as government on our priorities, the people's priorities, and bouncing back from the pandemic as much as we can and getting through it."

Conservative candidate Jill Mortimer, who will now become Hartlepool's new MP, took more than half of all votes at the by-election as the Tories leapfrogged Labour from second place in the constituency at the 2019 general election.

As the Labour inquest into their Hartlepool defeat began, allies of Sir Keir's predecessor, Jeremy Corbyn, were quick to point out Labour had twice won the seat under Mr Corbyn's leadership in recent years.

"Not possible to blame Jeremy Corbyn for this result," Labour's former shadow home secretary Diane Abbott posted on Twitter.

"Labour won the seat twice under his leadership. Keir Starmer must think again about his strategy."

Another of Mr Corbyn's former shadow cabinet ministers, Richard Burgon, said Labour was "going backwards in areas we need to be winning".

"Labour's leadership needs to urgently change direction," he added.

"It should start by championing the popular policies in our recent manifestos - backed by a large majority of voters."

Left-wing campaign group Momentum also accused Sir Keir of having taken Labour "backwards", while Len McCluskey - the general secretary of the Unite trade union - told Sky News the Labour leader needed to "press the reset button".

"He can go back to the very issues that he was elected to lead the Labour party on, which were radical policies," Mr McCluskey said, although he dismissed suggestions Sir Keir should resign.

"He said he wanted to make the moral case for socialism and just at the moment people don't know what his vision is, they don't know what the vision of Labour is and therefore he needs to learn the lesson that we need to develop a radical alternative to the current government and the status quo.

"That's the only way you can enthuse people to vote for you."

Read more: https://news.sky.com/story/election...r-after-shattering-hartlepool-defeat-12299192

 

[James]

also if we see the demographic shift some people predict, of young middle class families moving and buying houses in the north as wfh becomes the norm, i think that will only serve to further strengthen the tory part in what was historically not blue territory.

Speaking as someone who lives in one of the old coal pit communities which is now becoming steadily more gentrified — and there are ever-increasing numbers of these, due to property corporations buying up disused land on the cheap, on which they can then deploy mass brownfield site building of terraced and semi-detached houses — I can testify that the often-cited line about “Labour taking votes Up North for granted” is essentially true.

The policies of the Thatcher government may well have devastated these communities, but she left office over 30 years ago and demographics change over time. Many of the old miners in “Never Tory” households have by now either died or moved away with their families.

These provincial towns and villages are thus taking on a new character and attracting a different type of person: white-collar professionals, young families, the middle classes. Such customers originally bought these houses as starter homes, primarily for dormitory and commuting purposes — but most of them are now happily working from home, have fallen in love with their houses, and have no strong desire to move on elsewhere at great pace. The neighbourhoods are also generally quiet, leafy, uneventful, and safe.

A lot of these newer inhabitants have in fact only been able to escape the black hole of renting and get on the housing ladder due to Conservative government “affordable housing” policies: like Help To Buy, Shared Ownership schemes, and the return of 5% deposits.

And I can tell you for a fact that you never see Labour out and about in these places. They are literally nowhere to be seen. No leafleting, no campaigning; hardly any active work in the community, aside from posting token monthly photos on Facebook of them picking up litter in the park; and no evidence that they have changed anything, or put in the effort to particularly do anything.

Read as a whole, this overall scenario is bound to create a crest of loyal Conservative voters that will last for a minimum of one or two generations. And so it has proved.

Hence the collapse of the “Red Wall”, Labour’s slow and painful demise as a political force, and the absolute Tory dominance across what is now the vast majority of England.

 

[Robert]

Speaking as someone who lives in one of the old coal pit communities which is now becoming steadily more gentrified — and there are ever-increasing numbers of these, due to property corporations buying up disused land on the cheap, on which they can then deploy mass brownfield site building of terraced and semi-detached houses — I can testify that the often-cited line about “Labour taking votes Up North for granted” is essentially true.

The policies of the Thatcher government may well have devastated these communities, but she left office over 30 years ago and demographics change over time. Many of the old miners in “Never Tory” households have by now either died or moved away with their families.

These provincial towns and villages are thus taking on a new character and attracting a different type of person: white-collar professionals, young families, the middle classes. Such customers originally bought these houses as starter homes, primarily for dormitory and commuting purposes — but most of them are now happily working from home, have fallen in love with their houses, and have no strong desire to move on elsewhere at great pace. The neighbourhoods are also generally quiet, leafy, uneventful, and safe.

A lot of these newer inhabitants have in fact only been able to escape the black hole of renting and get on the housing ladder due to Conservative government “affordable housing” policies: like Help To Buy, Shared Ownership schemes, and the return of 5% deposits.

And I can tell you for a fact that you never see Labour out and about in these places. They are literally nowhere to be seen. No leafleting, no campaigning; hardly any active work in the community, aside from posting token monthly photos on Facebook of them picking up litter in the park; and no evidence that they have changed anything, or put in the effort to particularly do anything.

Read as a whole, this overall scenario is bound to create a crest of loyal Conservative voters that will last for a minimum of one or two generations. And so it has proved.

Hence the collapse of the “Red Wall”, Labour’s slow and painful demise as a political force, and the absolute Tory dominance across what is now the vast majority of England.

Excellent informative post.

 

[ElRaja]

Speaking as someone who lives in one of the old coal pit communities which is now becoming steadily more gentrified — and there are ever-increasing numbers of these, due to property corporations buying up disused land on the cheap, on which they can then deploy mass brownfield site building of terraced and semi-detached houses — I can testify that the often-cited line about “Labour taking votes Up North for granted” is essentially true.

The policies of the Thatcher government may well have devastated these communities, but she left office over 30 years ago and demographics change over time. Many of the old miners in “Never Tory” households have by now either died or moved away with their families.

These provincial towns and villages are thus taking on a new character and attracting a different type of person: white-collar professionals, young families, the middle classes. Such customers originally bought these houses as starter homes, primarily for dormitory and commuting purposes — but most of them are now happily working from home, have fallen in love with their houses, and have no strong desire to move on elsewhere at great pace. The neighbourhoods are also generally quiet, leafy, uneventful, and safe.

A lot of these newer inhabitants have in fact only been able to escape the black hole of renting and get on the housing ladder due to Conservative government “affordable housing” policies: like Help To Buy, Shared Ownership schemes, and the return of 5% deposits.

And I can tell you for a fact that you never see Labour out and about in these places. They are literally nowhere to be seen. No leafleting, no campaigning; hardly any active work in the community, aside from posting token monthly photos on Facebook of them picking up litter in the park; and no evidence that they have changed anything, or put in the effort to particularly do anything.

Read as a whole, this overall scenario is bound to create a crest of loyal Conservative voters that will last for a minimum of one or two generations. And so it has proved.

Hence the collapse of the “Red Wall”, Labour’s slow and painful demise as a political force, and the absolute Tory dominance across what is now the vast majority of England.

great post mate, i suspected as much but that really drives home the point.

 

[Markhor]

Very good post from [MENTION=1842]James[/MENTION]. Property ownership, age and education has become today's biggest political divides unlike the 20th century which was defined by class identity.

More results slowly creeping in. Mark Drakeford has done well in Wales so definitely seems to be a pro-incumbency effect in Covid times.

 

[Robert]

Though I ran the [MENTION=1842]James[/MENTION] post past a housing officer friend, who said the Tories created the housing crisis in the first place.

 

[Robert]

Very good post from [MENTION=1842]James[/MENTION]. Property ownership, age and education has become today's biggest political divides unlike the 20th century which was defined by class identity.

More results slowly creeping in. Mark Drakeford has done well in Wales so definitely seems to be a pro-incumbency effect in Covid times.

Lab-Lib coalition holds in Wales.

 

[James]

Though I ran the [MENTION=1842]James[/MENTION] post past a housing officer friend, who said the Tories created the housing crisis in the first place.

Not sure if this is true. I don’t know enough about the topic. But that, in a way, is the point. The everyman voter does not know about this stuff.

 

[Technics 1210]

Though I ran the [MENTION=1842]James[/MENTION] post past a housing officer friend, who said the Tories created the housing crisis in the first place.

Can be traced back to when Thatcher embraced Reaganomics.

 

[irfan]

Though I ran the [MENTION=1842]James[/MENTION] post past a housing officer friend, who said the Tories created the housing crisis in the first place.

no they didn't unless you or your friend mean right to buy which was championed by Thatcher but actually was introduced by an earlier Labour govt. I used to be a Lab supporter but house prices relative to salaries were lowest during Major's govt mostly due to the housing crash of the early 90s, London house prices were 2.5-3x salaries, meaning oridnary working people could afford to buy, then came Blair/Brown who let rampant house price inflation run wild and destryoed the chances of young working people as prices became 7-10x salary multiples, they encouraged buy to let without any oversight as the already well off gorged themselves on housing speculation and Tory govts since then have continued these policies.

 

[Robert]

Not sure if this is true. I don’t know enough about the topic. But that, in a way, is the point. The everyman voter does not know about this stuff.

Thatcher sold off a lot of the social housing stock which was never replaced.

LAs are trying to catch up with demand for housing with nonprofit landlord developments.

But, as the old industrial Labour voting bloc that is passing away, I guess the youngsters don’t know or care, they just want a foot on the property ladder.

 

[Technics 1210]

Thatcher sold off a lot of the social housing stock which was never replaced.

LAs are trying to catch up with demand for housing with nonprofit landlord developments.

But, as the old industrial Labour voting bloc that is passing away, I guess the youngsters don’t know or care, they just want a foot on the property ladder.

Not entirely true. The government can indeed build more houses at a faster rate, but more houses mean the value of existing houses will drop in many areas across the country pushing mortgage owners potentially into negative equity, and banks will lose out.

I blame Labour mostly for allowing unfettered EU immigration from the Eastern block of EU in the 00s. The result was increase in demand for property thus pushing prices high and beyond affordability.

Vicious cycle.

 

[Robert]

no they didn't unless you or your friend mean right to buy which was championed by Thatcher but actually was introduced by an earlier Labour govt. I used to be a Lab supporter but house prices relative to salaries were lowest during Major's govt mostly due to the housing crash of the early 90s, London house prices were 2.5-3x salaries, meaning oridnary working people could afford to buy, then came Blair/Brown who let rampant house price inflation run wild and destryoed the chances of young working people as prices became 7-10x salary multiples, they encouraged buy to let without any oversight as the already well off gorged themselves on housing speculation and Tory govts since then have continued these policies.

A lot of people ended up in negative equity in the early nineties and were repossessed. Now shared ownership is their only option.

Add foreign oligarchs (Russians, Arabs, Chinese) who superheat the London property market by buying tower blocks even before they are built. The communities based in the older blocks that these new developments replace are scattered across London and further afield - gentrification, they call it. You see it all over East and South London.

And also British second-home owners who buy houses in cheap areas such as Cornwall and Wales and use them as holiday lets, pushing prices further out of reach of the locals.

 

[James]

After a disappointing set of electoral results for Labour, not to mention a totally naffed up weekend reshuffle from LOTO, Starmer has ended up looking very weak. There are now some small rumours starting of a Labour leadership challenge, backed by the Left of the party who are gradually falling in behind Angela Rayner.

 

[Robert]

After a disappointing set of electoral results for Labour, not to mention a totally naffed up weekend reshuffle from LOTO, Starmer has ended up looking very weak. There are now some small rumours starting of a Labour leadership challenge, backed by the Left of the party who are gradually falling in behind Angela Rayner.

Long past time time they got a woman. Tories did it 42 years ago. I would prefer Yvette Cooper though.

Honestly, I think the Labour rupture is terminal. Brexit holed them below the waterline. They can either court working class northerners and lose the southern metropolitan liberals, or vice versa.

 

[Markhor]

Something we haven't really mentioned are the results from the Southern Tory heartlands.

The Greens in particular are tapping into local anger over planning reforms, and some voters may not be too pleased with Boris opening the chequebook for the North.

The Tories lost control of Tunbridge Wells and Cambridgeshire council.

 

[Robert]

Something we haven't really mentioned are the results from the Southern Tory heartlands.

The Greens in particular are tapping into local anger over planning reforms, and some voters may not be too pleased with Boris opening the chequebook for the North.

The Tories lost control of Tunbridge Wells and Cambridgeshire council.

Interesting to see Labour / LD / Green coalitions forming in the councils [MENTION=53290]Markhor[/MENTION]. The next step is progressive alliance in elections - stand-down pacts.

 

[Markhor]

I'm not a supporter of Boris Johnson but this testimony from Dominic Cummings seems more about settling personal scores than a genuine concern over government accountability.

 

[Markhor]

Cummings: Officials mulled 'chicken pox parties' to spread Covid

Mr Cummings also tells the committee that Mark Sedwill, the cabinet secretary at the time, suggested in March that Boris Johnson should go on TV to explain the herd immunity plan, and suggest that people should hold "chicken pox parties" to spread the disease and therefore spread immunity.

He says that at the time, Mr Sedwill was simply reflecting official advice that had been given by health officials.

Cummings says he said coronavirus was not like chicken pox, it was spreading exponentially, and thousands of people were dying.

The hell ?!

 

[Markhor]

Some of this testimony is shocking.

Cummings says Hancock should have fired over 15-20 different occasions, and confirms Boris said he'd rather let the bodies pile high than introduce another lockdown.

 

[Markhor]

Cummings - The way responsibility is deliberately diffused across the British state is intrinsically hostile to high performance management.

Damn. I know people dislike Cummings because he was mastermind of Brexit, Barnard Castle trip etc but some of his critiques are bang on.