British Politics: the Mega-Thread

[Markhor]

Labour leadership may back a second referendum if Conference passes the motion.

 

[IMMY69]

Big developments on the eve of the Labour Conference. Watson and Corbyn both heavily imply that they are open to a policy change on Brexit. Labour could be on the verge of becoming a Remain party.

I think if Labour want to implement their “socialist” policies then it may have dawned on them that the only way this can happen is if we remain in the EU....

 

[Robert]

I think if Labour want to implement their “socialist” policies then it may have dawned on them that the only way this can happen is if we remain in the EU....

True. Reduced industry and lost jobs = reduced tax revenue = reduced social programmes.

 

[James]

Though it could just be media spin to make it look like they might call for Peoples Vote, while the Conference fix is in to prevent it becoming policy.

Disagree, this feels like a red line to me. Can’t go back on this - it isn’t some dull waste management proposal, inconsequential urban planning blueprint or forgettable tweak to the National Curriculum - this is huge. Right up there with the NHS and the economy in general. Brexit is way too explosive to justify a double u-turn.

It’s an ingenious strategic move by Labour, sandwiched between a thunderbolt to Chequers and the main events of the conference season.

I firmly believe that Cameron bagged the 2015 election by promising the first EU referendum; Corbyn could now have secured his own immediate political future by hinting towards a second one.

 

[Robert]

I firmly believe that Cameron bagged the 2015 election by promising the first EU referendum; Corbyn could now have secured his own immediate political future by hinting towards a second one.

More to do with the Scottish Labour vote collapsing to the SNP, and the South-West Liberal vote (fearing a Milliband-Salmond coalition) hoovered up by Tories I'd say.

Anyway it will be easy to see how Labour Conference votes on this. They could pinch the defectors to the Lib Dems back.

 

[Markhor]

Just been thinking about Ed Miliband and the vicious way he was smeared by the right wing press, and more relevant to today - the folly of trying to appease them.

Here's a thoroughly warm, humane and decent human being (and very funny as we see on the medium of Twitter) destroyed by the press barons who couldn't bear to see a progressive Prime Minister who'd sworn to take them on. Yet constantly labelled as "Red Ed", he tortorously tried to moderate himself and avoid his radical instincts - yet it got him nowhere.

I remember in a truly sickening moment for our politics when the Daily Mail sent out a reporter to take a photograph of Ralph Miliband's grave and portrayed him as "the man who hated Britain". Some of the smears were truly bizarre such as criticism of the way he ate a bacon sandwich.

Miliband in some ways was the precursor to Corbyn. To his eternal credit, he STOPPED the planned attack against the Syrian Government in 2013. He voted for Palestinian statehood in 2014.

During the war in Gaza in 2014 in a break with years of New Labour policy he publicly criticised the Government's "inexplicable silence" towards the death of hundreds of Palestinian civilians. And guess what ?

HE was labelled as driving away Jewish voters too despite being a Jew himself !

https://www.spectator.co.uk/2015/04/how-ed-miliband-lost-the-jewish-vote/amp/
https://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4654379,00.html
https://www.timesofisrael.com/uk-labour-party-candidate-denounces-palestine-recognition/amp/
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/po...-Lipman-abandons-Ed-Miliband-over-Israel.html

Miliband was strongest when he was an insurgent - railing against the power of Murdoch during the 2011 phone hacking scandal, taking on energy companies, and the predatory behaviour of big business. It's no wonder he now wishes he stayed to his radical roots.

 

[Robert]

I quite liked Ed [MENTION=53290]Markhor[/MENTION] but had Labour chosen his brother as Leader in 2010 we would have had a Labour government for the last three years.

Of course it would be deeply unpopular as it would still have had to deal with the deficit, but I think it would be kinder than the full-fat Tories we have now.

 

[Robert]

I firmly believe that Cameron bagged the 2015 election by promising the first EU referendum; Corbyn could now have secured his own immediate political future by hinting towards a second one.

Oops.

 

[Markhor]

Marr was effective this morning in grilling PM May over Windrush.

May refused to apologise for the "hostile environment" policy.

 

[Gabbar Singh]

So Paaji what do you think we're looking at here? another election? what do you think..or will the tories continue to prop up TM to save their own hides??

May will survive for quite a bit longer imo - calling a vote of no confidence is easy (think they need about 50 MPs) but to win it is almost impossible at the moment because there is no one candidate who would win the required number of votes to topple May. May would only need 50+% to win that vote. And the Tory party rules state that once you’ve had one vote of no confidence you can’t have a second one for another 12 months.

I’m no fan of May but the alternatives to her are all cowards. They want May to deal with Brexit then they’ll make their move so they can say “look I know Brexit is a mess but that’s all to do with May, now let me sort it out”.

After 8-9 years of a Tory/Tory led government the opposition should really be way ahead of the government in the polls right now. However they’re not - at best they are neck and neck. So long as that doesn’t change May’s job will be safe.

 

[Gabbar Singh]

How do you post a tweet on this board [MENTION=7898]Gabbar Singh[/MENTION]?

Not sure how it works on the Twitter app but on the desktop/mobile version of twitter click on the down arrow on the top right hand corner of a tweet then on the drop down menu select embed tweet then copy and paste the code on here.

 

[Robert]

Not sure how it works on the Twitter app but on the desktop/mobile version of twitter click on the down arrow on the top right hand corner of a tweet then on the drop down menu select embed tweet then copy and paste the code on here.

Copy and paste directly into this box?

Hmm, tried that and I just get a load of code and no graphics.

 

[s28]

We were getting 'why is Labour 20 points behind' in April 2018 from political ingenues

Now we are getting 'why aren't Labour 20 points ahead' from political ingenues

They don't understand politics or anything about how the media is simply an arm of Tory/Government PR and thus the importance of OFCOM Section 6 rules

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Westminster voting intention:<br><br>LAB: 40% (+2)<br>CON: 35% (-3)<br>LDEM: 12% (+2)<br>UKIP: 5% (-)<br><br>via <a href="https://twitter.com/BMGResearch?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@BMGResearch</a>, 28 - 29 Sep<br>Chgs. w/ 22 Sep<br><br>h/t <a href="https://t.co/OPgI7gDxXv">https://t.co/OPgI7gDxXv</a></p>— Britain Elects (@britainelects) <a href="https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1046435686360985602?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">30 September 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[Robert]

We were getting 'why is Labour 20 points behind' in April 2018 from political ingenues

Now we are getting 'why aren't Labour 20 points ahead' from political ingenues

They don't understand politics or anything about how the media is simply an arm of Tory/Government PR and thus the importance of OFCOM Section 6 rules

How do you explain John Smith’s Labour Party holding a twenty point lead over Major’s Tories, despite this alleged bias?

Was the media not biased to the Tories then?

Or maybe it was because of Smith’s very high personal credibility.

 

[Gabbar Singh]

Copy and paste directly into this box?

Hmm, tried that and I just get a load of code and no graphics.

Yes. You’ll just get a load of code but that will change after you click “submit post”, “post reply” etc.

 

[MenInG]

Any issues with moderation are meant for MRR forum only

 

[the Great Khan]

We were getting 'why is Labour 20 points behind' in April 2018 from political ingenues

Now we are getting 'why aren't Labour 20 points ahead' from political ingenues

They don't understand politics or anything about how the media is simply an arm of Tory/Government PR and thus the importance of OFCOM Section 6 rules

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Westminster voting intention:<br><br>LAB: 40% (+2)<br>CON: 35% (-3)<br>LDEM: 12% (+2)<br>UKIP: 5% (-)<br><br>via <a href="https://twitter.com/BMGResearch?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@BMGResearch</a>, 28 - 29 Sep<br>Chgs. w/ 22 Sep<br><br>h/t <a href="https://t.co/OPgI7gDxXv">https://t.co/OPgI7gDxXv</a></p>— Britain Elects (@britainelects) <a href="https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1046435686360985602?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">30 September 2018</a></blockquote>
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You need to add 10% to that since the media will be forced to dicth their Bias during the election. If Labour starts off with a lead the Maybot will need a full upgrade or be thrown in the recycling..

 

[Robert]

Interesting article in The Economist this week on the Conservatives.

The Tories are down to just 39% support among the ABC1 group. They have always been on 50% or more prior to this.

They are losing credibility as the party of pragmatism, because of Brexit and the chaotic and divided approach to it.

 

[GBK_Fan]

Interesting article in The Economist this week on the Conservatives.

The Tories are down to just 39% support among the ABC1 group. They have always been on 50% or more prior to this.

They are losing credibility as the party of pragmatism, because of Brexit and the chaotic and divided approach to it.

I doubt that support is going over to labour. I see more people supporting Lib Dem’s than a year back

 

[ElRaja]

to be honest i havn't been less hopeful for the political future of this country than i am now.

every party is full to the brim of small minded, petty, career politicians trying to survive one week to next.

to those people wondering about how trends of support may be moving from one party to the other, if im anything to go by its going from politically engaged to politically not bothered.

 

[s28]

but still bothered enough to click on a thread about British politics and vent

 

[Robert]

I doubt that support is going over to labour. I see more people supporting Lib Dem’s than a year back

Some young professionals are turning from Tory to Labour I believe. They can’t get on the property ladder like their parents did.

The LDs are slowly picking up some Remain Tories, but more refugees from Labour who don’t trust Corbyn. Need to change the leader though. Sir Vince is too intellectual and too tainted by Coalition. Layla Moran could be the one. Young, warm, female, telegenic, half-Palestinian, untainted by Coalition.

 

[Robert]

to be honest i havn't been less hopeful for the political future of this country than i am now.

every party is full to the brim of small minded, petty, career politicians trying to survive one week to next.

to those people wondering about how trends of support may be moving from one party to the other, if im anything to go by its going from politically engaged to politically not bothered.

I agree, both main party front benches are hopeless - either lacking ability like Labour, or bereft of statesmanship and ability like the Tories. What a horrible choice to make. The LDs are just barely clinging on. Only the SNP seem to have competence.

All with the nightmare of Brexit bearing down. We are at an all-time low ebb, but I fear it will be worse in a year as unemployment shoots up and vital services start to collapse. Then the U.K. begins to break up. In ten years Scotland will have gone and rejoined the EU, and Ireland will be on the road to reunification.

 

[GBK_Fan]

Some young professionals are turning from Tory to Labour I believe. They can’t get on the property ladder like their parents did.

The LDs are slowly picking up some Remain Tories, but more refugees from Labour who don’t trust Corbyn. Need to change the leader though. Sir Vince is too intellectual and too tainted by Coalition. Layla Moran could be the one. Young, warm, female, telegenic, half-Palestinian, untainted by Coalition.

I am yet to see anyone doing well turning to Labour. Only time I did see someone vote for Labour was a Lib Dem couple who fell for the tactical voting ploy. Have to admit I am not as active as other posters here and my viewpoint is based on the few people I discuss politics with

 

[s28]

Would you class ex Chief Economist of Goldman Sachs as 'doing well' ? He seems to be turning towards Labour ?

I worked for City hedge funds prior to semi-retiring in my 30s. Am I doing well ? I have certainly become more active in Labour.

Gordon Gekko (the real life person who inspired the caricature in Wall Street) has also been turning to The Left in the US form of Corbynism as espoused by Bernie Sanders. Do you think he's not doing well ?

 

[GBK_Fan]

Would you class ex Chief Economist of Goldman Sachs as 'doing well' ? He seems to be turning towards Labour ?

I worked for City hedge funds prior to semi-retiring in my 30s. Am I doing well ? I have certainly become more active in Labour.

Gordon Gekko (the real life person who inspired the caricature in Wall Street) has also been turning to The Left in the US form of Corbynism as espoused by Bernie Sanders. Do you think he's not doing well ?

You should learn to have a conversation and then we can believe you doing well. Even bumpkins work in hedge funds, doesn’t mean they get paid anywhere near the average salary. You definitely know that having worked in one.

 

[Robert]

Would you class ex Chief Economist of Goldman Sachs as 'doing well' ? He seems to be turning towards Labour ?

Link on that?

 

[GBK_Fan]

Link on that?

I can link you one which [MENTION=107620]s28[/MENTION] has conveniently skipped in his Corbyn broadcast

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/30/jeremy-corbyn-morgan-stanley-labour-brexit

 

[ElRaja]

I agree, both main party front benches are hopeless - either lacking ability like Labour, or bereft of statesmanship and ability like the Tories. What a horrible choice to make. The LDs are just barely clinging on. Only the SNP seem to have competence.

All with the nightmare of Brexit bearing down. We are at an all-time low ebb, but I fear it will be worse in a year as unemployment shoots up and vital services start to collapse. Then the U.K. begins to break up. In ten years Scotland will have gone and rejoined the EU, and Ireland will be on the road to reunification.

perhaps its my own ignorance, but i fail to see what the SNP have achieved short of getting humbled in a vote for independence that was their primary raison d'etre, then following up with allowing the tories back in scotland, which i guess isnt the worst thing ever.

i also fail to see how there is any difference in statesmanship between labour and the tories, jeremy corbyn can barely rule his own party. hes like a bumbling pot smoking caricature of ken livingstone who came to power without realising what happened. kinda like a cheap rendition of claudius and the praetorian guard played out by corbyn and the trade unions.

i honestly have no idea who the leader of the lib dems even is. if there was an election tmou i pbly wouldnt even vote, which would be a first since i voted in the london mayoral election more than ten years ago.

 

[s28]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Jeremy Corbyn quotes former Treasury minister Jim O’Neill’s recent <a href="https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@FinancialTimes</a> op-ed on how Labour’s economic policies are speaking to the mood of the times. <br><br>Read it here <a href="https://t.co/Whij0pu668">https://t.co/Whij0pu668</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/lab18?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#lab18</a> <a href="https://t.co/wSlUEEvUfd">pic.twitter.com/wSlUEEvUfd</a></p>— Sebastian Payne (@SebastianEPayne) <a href="https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1044921650565779462?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">26 September 2018</a></blockquote>
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[s28]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Corbyn on Jim O'Neill's praise for Labour: "You’re welcome, come and join us in the new political mainstream." This speech is about building hegemony.</p>— George Eaton (@georgeeaton) <a href="https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/1044921970909958150?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">26 September 2018</a></blockquote>
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[s28]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">A fresh new look - partially positive - at Corbyn's proposed policy goals by Jim O'Neill, formerly at Goldman Sachs and now head of Chatham House<br><br>Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour looks poised to shake up the status quo<a href="https://t.co/nCcycCWvbQ">https://t.co/nCcycCWvbQ</a></p>— Nouriel Roubini (@Nouriel) <a href="https://twitter.com/Nouriel/status/1043844146081882112?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">23 September 2018</a></blockquote>
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[Robert]

Thank you @s28. Evidence-based political debate is good.

 

[GBK_Fan]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">A fresh new look - partially positive - at Corbyn's proposed policy goals by Jim O'Neill, formerly at Goldman Sachs and now head of Chatham House<br><br>Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour looks poised to shake up the status quo<a href="https://t.co/nCcycCWvbQ">https://t.co/nCcycCWvbQ</a></p>— Nouriel Roubini (@Nouriel) <a href="https://twitter.com/Nouriel/status/1043844146081882112?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">23 September 2018</a></blockquote>
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Thanks for sharing, I had missed this. I wouldn’t take it as a complete endorsement of Corbyns fiscal policy though and that has been stated by Jim in the opening lines of his article. He like most agrees with the intent of Labour policies that the train wreck of the Tory government clearly misses.

 

[Robert]

Productivity is a big problem. In this country everything seems to be about cost-cutting not adding value (profit, environment, human development) like the Germans, French and Scandis do.

 

[Donal Cozzie]

Then the U.K. begins to break up. In ten years Scotland will have gone and rejoined the EU, and Ireland will be on the road to reunification.

 

[ElRaja]

Productivity is a big problem. In this country everything seems to be about cost-cutting not adding value (profit, environment, human development) like the Germans, French and Scandis do.

our attitude to business is all bottom line. there is simply no venture in our capitalism. its unbelievably stifling for a country that has some of best universities and researchers in the world.

Americans seem to revel in taking business risk, it is somehow woven into their national narrative of being bold economic risk takers, which is somewhat ironic given the US was primarily an agrarian economy for much of its development, a time when the uk funded by imperial markets was at the fore front of industrial development.

no where else in the world in my opinion can compete with the venture capital level business development the yanks across the pond, and it shows what a massive psychological impact losing the empire had on the monied classes of this country.

 

[s28]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">I’m an ex-Tory minister: only Labour grasps Britain’s desire for change | Jim O’Neill <a href="https://t.co/uWXY7ju1HY">https://t.co/uWXY7ju1HY</a></p>— The Guardian (@guardian) <a href="https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1048091269501800453?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">5 October 2018</a></blockquote>
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[Robert]

Today’s YouGov poll shows The Worst Government Ever with a whopping 8% lead over Labour.

What on earth is going on.

 

[s28]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/YouGov?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#YouGov</a> tried to influence <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Iraq?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Iraq</a> vote, say whistleblowers <a href="https://t.co/BBLys15JCQ">https://t.co/BBLys15JCQ</a> <a href="https://t.co/Pw9GMxIrFt">pic.twitter.com/Pw9GMxIrFt</a></p>— The Week UK (@TheWeekUK) <a href="https://twitter.com/TheWeekUK/status/1048236381481439232?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">5 October 2018</a></blockquote>
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[James]

The Tories have a solid “Middle England” voting base and are now targeting the centre ground, but I don’t think May could lead them to a majority in the Commons under election conditions, as she is a terrible campaigner and would be comprehensively outperformed by Corbyn again.

The Tories won’t allow for a snap election (unless there is no other option due to Brexit) because in those circumstances they wouldn’t have enough time to replace May.

I think she will be gently asked to step down at the start of 2021 (post-Brexit transitional period) and they will look for a new leader who could rival Corbyn in a General Election run-in. Although I’m not sure who that is. Boris will fancy himself of course.

 

[Markhor]

The conventional wisdom that "campaigns don't matter" was disproved by the 2017 election.

Leads can be bridged over the course of six weeks, especially if Labour produce a similarly energetic campaign and strong manifesto as they did in 2017.

Part of the reason why Labour cannot obtain the big 10-15 point leads that people are arguing they should have is because they don't have the monopoly in Scotland they once had with the rise of the SNP. Scotland was a reliable bank of 35-40 seats for Labour.

 

[Robert]

The conventional wisdom that "campaigns don't matter" was disproved by the 2017 election.

Leads can be bridged over the course of six weeks, especially if Labour produce a similarly energetic campaign and strong manifesto as they did in 2017.

Part of the reason why Labour cannot obtain the big 10-15 point leads that people are arguing they should have is because they don't have the monopoly in Scotland they once had with the rise of the SNP. Scotland was a reliable bank of 35-40 seats for Labour.

Good point well made. Labour have to get Scotland back.

But I don't think the Tories will shoot their own feet off with dementia taxes and so on this time.

Some sort of a deal on the EU seems imminent and I guess the nation will judge on that. If it gets through Parliament of course.

 

[James]

The Tories are considerably stronger in Scotland than Labour at the moment, not for any particular reason other than Unionism.

If Labour want to gain back ground from the Tories and challenge the SNP, they need to go for a firm and high profile Unionist stance (Scots would generally rather vote for Labour over the Tories wherever possible) and bank on a waning of the hunger for Scottish Independence.

 

[Donal Cozzie]

Tories and DUP inevitably reaching make or break point atm it seems. As was always going to be the case NI Unionism means nothing to mainland Tories and Brexiteers, least not when it comes down to either that or Brexit. NI in general is irrelevant as far as mainland UK goes.

Time to get the popcorn folks. As I said nearly a year ago DUP are doomed so its gonna be fun watching them squirm. Either they will take the backstop the Tories seem to be negotiating with the EU (which will exclude NI from future GB trade deals, while keeping it in the EU SM and implementing minor checks between NI and GB), or they will collapse the Government, ensuring they never again get anywhere near a whiff of power and usher in a pro United Ireland Labour headed by a man they despise almost as much as they do Gerry Adams et al.

Fun times indeed

 

[Robert]

Tories and DUP inevitably reaching make or break point atm it seems. As was always going to be the case NI Unionism means nothing to mainland Tories and Brexiteers, least not when it comes down to either that or Brexit. NI in general is irrelevant as far as mainland UK goes.

Time to get the popcorn folks. As I said nearly a year ago DUP are doomed so its gonna be fun watching them squirm. Either they will take the backstop the Tories seem to be negotiating with the EU (which will exclude NI from future GB trade deals, while keeping it in the EU SM and implementing minor checks between NI and GB), or they will collapse the Government, ensuring they never again get anywhere near a whiff of power and usher in a pro United Ireland Labour headed by a man they despise almost as much as they do Gerry Adams et al.

Fun times indeed

Always appreciate your clarity of thought [MENTION=136108]Donal Cozzie[/MENTION].

I can’t see the ERG voting for a deal which divides the UK in the manner of your first case though.

If there is another GE I expect another hung Parliament though. The polls are too tight and I cannot imagine the Tories running such a terrible campaign twice in two years.

 

[Donal Cozzie]

Always appreciate your clarity of thought [MENTION=136108]Donal Cozzie[/MENTION].

I can’t see the ERG voting for a deal which divides the UK in the manner of your first case though.

If there is another GE I expect another hung Parliament though. The polls are too tight and I cannot imagine the Tories running such a terrible campaign twice in two years.

Your last line I mostly agree with, but I struggle to see how the Conservatives could remain in power considering the absolute shambles that has been this government, despite Labours best efforts at doing precisely nothing.

As for the ERG, history has shown time and again that NI Unionism is well down the list of priorities of your mainland UK Conservatives despite the rhetoric. Thatcher famously referred to NI as "as British as Finchley" then no more than two weeks later completely went behind the UUP's backs in discussions with the Irish Government if memory serves me well, selling them out. Its why the DUP are completely paranoid, they know they're loyal to a union and people who couldnt care less and, in the case of the majority, find them archaic and an embarrassment.

NI Unionism is based on a loyalty that is false (riots anytime the UK Government make decisions they dont like, picking and choosing of which bits of UK Law they want to implement and follow), to a nation thats forgotten about them and views them as a financial drain, and is fastly dissipating due to demographic changes and moronic strategic placement by all Unionist parties.

The likes of Johnson and JRM might huff and puff in public about the union and obtaining impossible concessions from the EU, but when push comes to shove and the choice, as it was always inevitably going to, comes down to leaving NI in the SM or leaving the entire UK in the SM and having no Brexit at all, we all know NI will be thrown under the bus. Where that leaves the SNP and Scotland in particular, who knows, wouldnt surprise me to see an indyref2 in that case.

Even in the event that, lets say, JRM or Johnson usurp May as leader and lead negotiations, Johnsons word is about as untrustworthy as it gets, the man is the most self centred human being I've ever seen. We both know it wont matter who's negotiating, EU's position from Day 1 has been clear, and unless the UK go absolutely insane and plunge for a No Deal (tbh cannot be ruled out but would be suicidal) we all know NI will be staying in the EU SM, the Good Friday Agreement will, and rightfully so, remain in place and the DUP will face (hopefully) a slaughtering from their electorate.

Even should a hard Brexit occur with no agreement, a United Ireland would probably occur within the decade in that case, so its a lose lose situation for the Union. Special Status could actually strengthen the Union in the sense that itd economically boost the region and give it a hybrid status it may never want to give up.

 

[Donal Cozzie]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">He says it’s “Project Truth” and not Project Fear.<br><br>It is incredible that there are businesses HQd in the UK that are getting state subsidised loans to effect Brexit supply chain transformation - but not from NI/UK Gov but from Irish Govt using European Investment Bank guarantees</p>— Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) <a href="https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1050845204226420737?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">12 October 2018</a></blockquote>
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I'll say one thing for Brexit, I'm typically very critical and rightly so of successive Irish Governments and the current lot domestically have a multitude of problems but on Brexit they are playing an absolute blinder.

UK Gov forcing companies to sign DCA's while we do this! Never seen anything as dysfunctional as current UK politics

 

[Robert]

Your last line I mostly agree with, but I struggle to see how the Conservatives could remain in power considering the absolute shambles that has been this government, despite Labours best efforts at doing precisely nothing.

As for the ERG, history has shown time and again that NI Unionism is well down the list of priorities of your mainland UK Conservatives despite the rhetoric. Thatcher famously referred to NI as "as British as Finchley" then no more than two weeks later completely went behind the UUP's backs in discussions with the Irish Government if memory serves me well, selling them out. Its why the DUP are completely paranoid, they know they're loyal to a union and people who couldnt care less and, in the case of the majority, find them archaic and an embarrassment.

NI Unionism is based on a loyalty that is false (riots anytime the UK Government make decisions they dont like, picking and choosing of which bits of UK Law they want to implement and follow), to a nation thats forgotten about them and views them as a financial drain, and is fastly dissipating due to demographic changes and moronic strategic placement by all Unionist parties.

The likes of Johnson and JRM might huff and puff in public about the union and obtaining impossible concessions from the EU, but when push comes to shove and the choice, as it was always inevitably going to, comes down to leaving NI in the SM or leaving the entire UK in the SM and having no Brexit at all, we all know NI will be thrown under the bus. Where that leaves the SNP and Scotland in particular, who knows, wouldnt surprise me to see an indyref2 in that case.

Even in the event that, lets say, JRM or Johnson usurp May as leader and lead negotiations, Johnsons word is about as untrustworthy as it gets, the man is the most self centred human being I've ever seen. We both know it wont matter who's negotiating, EU's position from Day 1 has been clear, and unless the UK go absolutely insane and plunge for a No Deal (tbh cannot be ruled out but would be suicidal) we all know NI will be staying in the EU SM, the Good Friday Agreement will, and rightfully so, remain in place and the DUP will face (hopefully) a slaughtering from their electorate.

Even should a hard Brexit occur with no agreement, a United Ireland would probably occur within the decade in that case, so its a lose lose situation for the Union. Special Status could actually strengthen the Union in the sense that itd economically boost the region and give it a hybrid status it may never want to give up.

Hmm interesting, I am reminded of the Unionist army Carson raised in 1913 which was ready to go to war with the British Army to stay loyal to its Unionist ideal. Maybe they thought the British Government had betrayed King Billy’s 1690 legacy?

Collapse of the DUP perhaps with a resurgence of the UUP and a return to functioning government would suit me fine.

Personally I would be happy if Ireland reunifies and I speak as the English son of an Ulster Loyalist. My old Da always held me to be an Irishman. Perhaps Dublin would let me emigrate there.

Would the Orange accept Dublin rule though?

 

[Donal Cozzie]

Hmm interesting, I am reminded of the Unionist army Carson raised in 1913 which was ready to go to war with the British Army to stay loyal to its Unionist ideal. Maybe they thought the British Government had betrayed King Billy’s 1690 legacy?

Collapse of the DUP perhaps with a resurgence of the UUP and a return to functioning government would suit me fine.

Personally I would be happy if Ireland reunifies and I speak as the English son of an Ulster Loyalist. My old Da always held me to be an Irishman. Perhaps Dublin would let me emigrate there.

Would the Orange accept Dublin rule though?

Exactly. The term Loyalist is an oxymoron. They were armed and ready to murder British forces we before the IRA ever were. Fun Fact on Carson though, he spoke fuent Irish, played hurling and was opposed to partition, it was his colleague Craig who didnt care less about the southern counties. Carson in fact is quoted as saying

A quote from him after partition in 1921

I believed all this. I thought of the last thirty years, during which I was fighting with others whose friendship and comradeship I hope I will lose from tonight, because I do not value any friendship that is not founded upon confidence and trust. I was in earnest. What a fool I was. I was only a puppet, and so was Ulster, and so was Ireland, in the political game that was to get the Conservative Party into power. And of all the men in my experience that I think are the most loathsome it is those who will sell their friends for the purpose of conciliating their enemies, and, perhaps, still worse, the men who climb up a ladder into power of which even I may have been part of a humble rung, and then, when they have got into power, kick the ladder away without any concern for the pain, or injury, or mischief, or damage that they do to those who have helped them to gain power.

He was certainly a Unionist of course, however he was no bigot unlike his counterparts.

As for the UUP, sadly that will make no difference. I have a tremendous amount of respect for former UUP leader Mike Nesbitt who, in the last election, stated that he was giving his second preference votes to the SDLP, and encouraged his voters to do the same. An extraordinarily risky yet laudable political move in an attempt to unite the two more moderate parties who represent vastly different communities. His reward? UUP (and the SDLP for that matter) faced a wipeout and he resigned within 24 hours of the election results. The UUP sadly for Unionism are perfectly content in trying to one up the DUP in terms of backwards, bigoted thinking what with them agreeing on virtually every single policy. Unionism has no alternatives, two parties, essentially the same party, who make election pacts time after time to avoid running candidates against one another. Both are backwards, both outdated, both losing relevance, bit by bit, piece by piece.

Your last point is an irrelevance though, Of course the Orange Order wouldnt accept it, but they are by definition a sectarian group who's numbers in NI and Scotland have plummeted in recent decades and is getting no better. Democratic decisions cant be held ransom to threats of violence and in any case in the event of a reunification vote its not like people would wake up tomorrow in a 32 county Ireland, it would need to be a long, drawn out process from the Irish and UK Govs and perhaps to appease these people they could be encouraged move back to the mainland, I dont know, thats too far ahead for any of us to accurately say IMO

 

[Robert]

Exactly. The term Loyalist is an oxymoron. They were armed and ready to murder British forces we before the IRA ever were. Fun Fact on Carson though, he spoke fuent Irish, played hurling and was opposed to partition, it was his colleague Craig who didnt care less about the southern counties.

He was certainly a Unionist of course, however he was no bigot unlike his counterparts.

Great info [MENTION=136108]Donal Cozzie[/MENTION], I learn much from you.

As for the UUP, sadly that will make no difference. I have a tremendous amount of respect for former UUP leader Mike Nesbitt who, in the last election, stated that he was giving his second preference votes to the SDLP, and encouraged his voters to do the same. An extraordinarily risky yet laudable political move in an attempt to unite the two more moderate parties who represent vastly different communities. His reward? UUP (and the SDLP for that matter) faced a wipeout and he resigned within 24 hours of the election results. The UUP sadly for Unionism are perfectly content in trying to one up the DUP in terms of backwards, bigoted thinking what with them agreeing on virtually every single policy. Unionism has no alternatives, two parties, essentially the same party, who make election pacts time after time to avoid running candidates against one another. Both are backwards, both outdated, both losing relevance, bit by bit, piece by piece.

Right. I had the idea that the UUP were more like the Tory left and the DUP the Tory right. If I had a vote it would go to the SDLP or Alliance I think.

Your last point is an irrelevance though, Of course the Orange Order wouldnt accept it, but they are by definition a sectarian group who's numbers in NI and Scotland have plummeted in recent decades and is getting no better. Democratic decisions cant be held ransom to threats of violence and in any case in the event of a reunification vote its not like people would wake up tomorrow in a 32 county Ireland, it would need to be a long, drawn out process from the Irish and UK Govs and perhaps to appease these people they could be encouraged move back to the mainland, I dont know, thats too far ahead for any of us to accurately say IMO

But there would be a return to sectarian violence surely? Mrs Robert just opined that there might be a refugee crisis of sorts with some Orange turning up in Liverpool and London.

 

[Donal Cozzie]

Great info [MENTION=136108]Donal Cozzie[/MENTION], I learn much from you.




Right. I had the idea that the UUP were more like the Tory left and the DUP the Tory right. If I had a vote it would go to the SDLP or Alliance I think.



But there would be a return to sectarian violence surely? Mrs Robert just opined that there might be a refugee crisis of sorts with some Orange turning up in Liverpool and London.

Ultimately the UUP are being presented with a goldmine of a chance to regain power. The DUP's hardline extremist views do not represent a majority in Unionism, there are large swathes of younger and middle aged Unionist voters I'm sure who are crying out for a more middle ground sensible party, the UUP could easily fill that gap, but alas, content to sit back, say nothing against the DUP or Brexit (despite the UUP campaigning for Remain) and do nothing. Hence why Alliance are starting to gain prominence, particularly among more moderate Unionists who are starting to flock there.

As for sectarian violence? We really dont know, I'd certainly expect riots similar to those in Belfast re: the flag issue a few years back, but again, why should the views of a majority be held hostage to a minority of thugs? We delve into impossibilites when thinking how they'd react because humans are unpredictable as hell. Fact is it wouldnt matter what happens, GFA clearly states once 51% North and South are in favour its irreversable. As for Orange refugees? Lol, would sum up their mentality to flee a prosperous accepting modern republic to set up stall in Liverpool (wouldnt surprise me though). I'd imagine some scheme would be set up for people who felt that strongly

 

[Donal Cozzie]

A fantastic talk that perfectly nails the current predicament facing the UK from about the 10:00 marker below from one of my favourite journalists

Recommended viewing for the insane few who cant get enough of the Brexit fix like myself [MENTION=1842]James[/MENTION] [MENTION=7774]Robert[/MENTION] [MENTION=4930]Yossarian[/MENTION] [MENTION=53290]Markhor[/MENTION]

 

[Markhor]

https://www.politico.eu/article/arl...lla-war-against-northern-ireland-brexit-plan/

To ensure the U.K. sticks to a backstop that includes regulatory divergence between Northern Ireland and the rest of the U.K., there are only two options — either direct rule from Westminster to enforce different rules for Northern Ireland, or full alignment with EU rules for the whole of the U.K. “Vassalage for Northern Ireland or vassalage for the U.K.,” in the words of the senior DUP official speaking on condition of anonymity.

“The thing people don’t realize is Brexit, devolution and the peace process are interlinked,” the official said. “If the unionist community feels they have been screwed on Brexit, it makes a return to devolution harder — much harder.”

The UK staying in the Customs Union seems the only way to get out of this mess over the Irish border.

 

[James]

The UK staying in the Customs Union seems the only way to get out of this mess over the Irish border.

Given that a new customs partnership is the Labour policy, if May agrees to Chequers but with a temporary renewal of the Customs Union, will Labour then back her in the Commons?

 

[Robert]

Given that a new customs partnership is the Labour policy, if May agrees to Chequers but with a temporary renewal of the Customs Union, will Labour then back her in the Commons?

No because it still violates some of their Six Tests. As will every deal or no deal. The Six Tests are a Maguffin with the goal of forcing a GE.

 

[Gabbar Singh]

May well and truly on the ropes now - can Corbyn and Labour take advantage?

 

[Gabbar Singh]

It's going to be an interesting week ahead in Westminster.

 

[gazza619]

May well and truly on the ropes now - can Corbyn and Labour take advantage?

Corbyn is not the answer I am afraid, neither is Teresa. There is a serious lack of leadership.

 

[Markhor]

It's going to be an interesting week ahead in Westminster.

2018 has been a year where Britain has been turned into a laughing stock, and this mess is almost entirely on Theresa May's head.

When she won the Tory leadership, she had a whopping opinion poll lead and the ideal chance to unite the country around a pragmatic Brexit like the EEA/EFTA option, opposing the Hard Brexiteers in her party and the Hard Remainers.

However in her Lancaster House speech in 2016, she rattled off a list of unrealistic red lines to appease the Brexiteer hardliners only to do one humiliating U-turn after another in the 2.5 years since. She promised to leave the SM and CU, end ECJ jurisdiction, an independent trade policy, and regulatory divergence all whilst pledging an open border in Ireland which cannot be achieved at the same time by doing any of these things.

She triggered Article 50 with no plan whatsoever leaving us staring down the barrel of no deal. She then blew a 20 point lead in the polls calling an election she didn't need to. So much for "crushing the saboteurs". She's banged on about how "no deal is better than a bad deal" only to argue the reverse this month to get this doomed Withdrawal Agreement passed.

May 2019 bring better leadership to this country.

 

[James]

She is clearly going to lose this vote.

321 declines is what is needed to kill her deal and, looking across Twitter, at least that number will vote against it - and probably more.

I don’t see how we avoid GE 2020 now.
It will be Corbyn up against May’s interim replacement.

 

[James]

*2019. Clearly I am wishing the time away

 

[Gabbar Singh]

May’s PM’ship is like watching a car crash in slow motion. The problem is that she isn’t going anywhere anytime soon - there aren’t enough Tory MPs to defeat her in a vote of no confidence (it’s easy to trigger a vote not so easy to win one) and Corbyn doesn’t have the numbers to topple her either. So on and on we go and the circus continues.


<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">BREAKING: Theresa May cancels a vote in the U.K. Parliament on her Brexit deal to avoid a huge defeat, a source says <a href="https://t.co/e3XaFIMHds">https://t.co/e3XaFIMHds</a> <a href="https://t.co/PQxmMEKxj2">pic.twitter.com/PQxmMEKxj2</a></p>— Bloomberg (@business) <a href="https://twitter.com/business/status/1072092436246212608?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 10, 2018</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[Gabbar Singh]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">So <a href="https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@jeremycorbyn</a> - if Labour, as official opposition, lodges motion of no confidence in this incompetent government tomorrow, <a href="https://twitter.com/theSNP?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@theSNP</a> will support & we can then work together to give people the chance to stop Brexit in another vote. This shambles can’t go on - so how about it?</p>— Nicola Sturgeon (@NicolaSturgeon) <a href="https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1072119477758758917?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 10, 2018</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[Gabbar Singh]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">What are you waiting for <a href="https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@jeremycorbyn</a>?<br><br>We no longer have a functioning government.<br><br>Let's end this chaos with a vote of no confidence and give the public a say with a <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/PeoplesVote?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#PeoplesVote</a>.</p>— Caroline Lucas (@CarolineLucas) <a href="https://twitter.com/CarolineLucas/status/1072135426503335937?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 10, 2018</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[James]

At the end of the day Corbyn is an old school left-wing Brexit or “Lexit” supporter - along with other traditional socialists like Benn, Livingstone and Galloway.

Things would be playing out completely differently in the Commons right now if Labour was led by a Remainer. Such a hypothetical leader would be spearheading a collective overthrow of the Tories and looking to get elected by the general public on a pro-EU ticket. Blair for example would have masterminded such a coup expertly.

I am not saying this is what I agree with or what I would want. But this is what would happen.

Corbyn’s anti-EU stance has never been clearer than it is currently. Respect is due to him in a way - for sticking by his principles, when he could u-turn at any time and create a strong chance for himself of seizing power.

 

[the Great Khan]

At the end of the day Corbyn is an old school left-wing Brexit or “Lexit” supporter - along with other traditional socialists like Benn, Livingstone and Galloway.

Things would be playing out completely differently in the Commons right now if Labour was led by a Remainer. Such a hypothetical leader would be spearheading a collective overthrow of the Tories and looking to get elected by the general public on a pro-EU ticket. Blair for example would have masterminded such a coup expertly.

I am not saying this is what I agree with or what I would want. But this is what would happen.

Corbyn’s anti-EU stance has never been clearer than it is currently. Respect is due to him in a way - for sticking by his principles, when he could u-turn at any time and create a strong chance for himself of seizing power.

And that Labour leader would lose the general election. Thats the point. The vote of no confidence is also one that will be lost as the Tories dont want Corbyn anywhere near the chair. Labour need to sit tight and watch as the Tories implode further. This is going to get even worse. Labour have many many Brexit voters in their ranks and they cannot afford to alienate them. Also their core base now is pro Corbyn and anti neo-liberal Blairite. The Blairites will be lucky to keep their CLP nominations. TM is a dead woman walking. She cant budge and is now at the mercy of the fanatics on her party. Labour just have to wait for the right moment and then wham.

Unfortunatley they have many traitors like Chuka and Chris leslie in their ranks who cannot be trusted.

 

[Gabbar Singh]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn tables motion of no confidence in Prime Minister Theresa May, saying it is the only way of 'ensuring' a meaningful vote on her Brexit deal takes place this week <a href="https://t.co/idYH3wkiHl">https://t.co/idYH3wkiHl</a> <a href="https://t.co/LVKbJECu7P">pic.twitter.com/LVKbJECu7P</a></p>— ITV News (@itvnews) <a href="https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/1074733701232295936?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">17 December 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>




<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Shocking by Corbyn just now. They know a motion of no confidence in PM means nothing - it has to be a motion if no confidence in the government to have any effect. This is a shoddy stunt. People deserve better opposition than this.</p>— Tommy Sheppard MP (@TommySheppard) <a href="https://twitter.com/TommySheppard/status/1074729673773461505?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">17 December 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[Markhor]

Paddy Ashdown dies aged 77.

He was a good leader stabilising the Liberal Democrats after a messy merger with the SDP and got them their best election results since the 1920s. He opposed the stationing of US cruise missiles on UK soil during the 1980s and opposed Thatcher's decision to allow Reagan to use the UK as a base to launch the attack on Libya in 1986.

He supported the Bosnian Muslims in their defence against a genocidal Serbian campaign.

 

[Markhor]

Ashdown from a speech last year:

From a moral point of view Britain’s support of Saudi Arabia’s actions in Yemen is as foolish as it is reprehensible.

It is very clear that war crimes have been committed in the conflict in Yemen, both in relation to indiscriminate attacks on civilians and by using aid and starvation as a weapon of war. Britain’s silence on these matters is thunderous and shaming.

The fact that we are supplying arms to Saudi Arabia is even more so.

The Government tells us that no weapons supplied by Britain have been used in this war. As someone who knows a little about the temptations and confusions of war, I simply do not believe this.

The Government should announce an immediate suspension of arms sales to Riyadh until their blockade of aid supplies is lifted and their indiscriminate bombing of civilians is ended.

 

[Robert]

Paddy Ashdown dies aged 77.

He was a good leader stabilising the Liberal Democrats after a messy merger with the SDP and got them their best election results since the 1920s. He opposed the stationing of US cruise missiles on UK soil during the 1980s and opposed Thatcher's decision to allow Reagan to use the UK as a base to launch the attack on Libya in 1986.

He supported the Bosnian Muslims in their defence against a genocidal Serbian campaign.

I shed a tear last night.

Farewell Lord Ashdown, the politician I admired most. Warrior, statesman, polyglot and peacemaker.

I never got to meet him but I know some young LDs who found him absolutely inspirational and so supportive. He was the best of us.

 

[Robert]

Ashdown from a speech last year:

What a man! Could kill with his bare hands, yet always worked for peace.

Blair and Ashdown had talks about Coalition in the mid-nineties. In the end Blair didn’t need him because he won so many seats - a sadness because I think Ashdown as Deputy PM would have talked him out of the Iraq invasion.

 

[Gabbar Singh]

Tomorrow will be fun in Westminster.

 

[IMMY69]

This whole thing has been soul destroying

 

[James]

I think that:

- May’s deal will be comprehensively rejected by Parliament.
- Labour will call for a vote of no confidence in the government, and they will win.
- General Election called.
- Tories win, under a new leader on a Hard Brexit mandate.
- Corbyn resigns. Labour leadership election.

 

[IMMY69]

I think that:

- May’s deal will be comprehensively rejected by Parliament.
- Labour will call for a vote of no confidence in the government, and they will win.
- General Election called.
- Tories win, under a new leader on a Hard Brexit mandate.
- Corbyn resigns. Labour leadership election.

Yes that pretty much sums it all up.

Third general election in four years is too much to handle.

 

[Markhor]

Hard to see a no confidence vote passing without DUP support.

 

[Gabbar Singh]

Looks like we are lurching towards the Brexit cliff edge - unless the EU can offer May something better re the Irish border.

 

[Robert]

Cliff edge Brexit is probably Corbyn’s best chance of becoming PM. By 2022 things will be so bad that the Tories will take huge losses.

 

[Gabbar Singh]

Cliff edge Brexit is probably Corbyn’s best chance of becoming PM. By 2022 things will be so bad that the Tories will take huge losses.

Those on the extremes of both parties would love a hard brexit and the potential chaos it brings - Corbyn types believe that out of the chaos will come their utopian socialist society and those like Liam Fox, IDS etc think that it will lead to more privatisation, a smaller state etc.