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PVCS - 8p. I reckon they have got 23p per share net cash. Net Tangible Assets in range 30-40p? I reckon more cash is due to them in form of customer settlements for contracts being terminated. On the supply side they also have some 'onerous contract provisions' but given that is input costs and the value they added it should be a wash with sell-side settlements outweighing buy-side commitments.

I think the Market doesn't understand the market or PVCS's place in it. They were conservative in the upcycle of solar market (did not take on too much debt or too many long term contracts at high spot prices etc) so should survive. Even though they will make Operating loss they have been close to cashflow breakeven in the trough of this market and now US and EU action against Chinese dumping should see some stability to market. China can not keep subsidising the Chinese solar sector. Debt of US quoted Chinese players is huge and there is no way they can service the debt when they are all selling at below production costs. (US Government gave Solyndra $500m of loans, Chinese Govt and other state entities gave loans of $10-20bn !)

PVCS analysts are behind the curve. Six months ago they were saying PVCS would end 2012 with 14p cash. Now saying 17p. I'd be looking at something closer to 20p personally. Either way at 8p PVCS could pay back the majority of their Market Cap in cash within the next few months.

Say the stock is trading at 8.1p and they pay back 8p per share. You then effectively have your cash back but then a share at 0.1p which traded as high as 200p in the past. In the event of solar market recovery and PVCS making it to the other side the upside potential is just insane.
 
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EOG

The prospectivity of the deep gas play in the Béarn des Gaves permit (Berenx
Deep) has been known for decades following the drilling of wells in the 1960s
and 1970s combined with the existence of historic seismic data. However, at
5,500 metres below the surface, the cost of one well is estimated at €40-50
million which has effectively limited the number of potential partners, an
issue exacerbated by the challenging economic climate. By contrast, the cost of
drilling the newly identified shallow prospect is considerably lower at €4-5
million and therefore affordable to a much larger pool of oil and gas
companies. As a result, our strategy regarding Berenx has changed so that we
are now looking to drill and prove up the shallow prospect first, which we
estimate holds up to 59 bcf of gas, before addressing the deeper prospectivity.
With this strategy in mind, we are in active discussions with regards to
farming out Berenx, both shallow and deep.
 
No wonder they can't get Berenx deep funded. Shallow looks more promising. How can it cost 40-50m to drill an onshore well !
 
INFA just looking immense. How did that trade at 4-5p for so long? It used to be 400p. And not in the meantime had loads of dilution, if anything they have added Assets !

The Market completely overlooking some stocks recently which is why in recent weeks we've had LGO 0.40 to 1.80 and PET 5p to 30p.
 
Energy Bill next week according to Ed Davey.

Expecting something of shale gas, gas storage, smart metering but should have learnt by now not to put too much hope in Politicians !
 
ACTA - should be good on the back of that RNS. Due a run after technical retrace.
 
GON - cretinous statement but on balance should be good. Mkt Cap about £2m and annual revenues of c.£10m and they seem to be getting orders for Crocos and their online game traction improving.
 
ACTA seem to have got a rep for being a bit too promotional and not delivering. However in recent RNSes the counterparty seems more happy to put their names in the releases. (they may of course need the promoting for their own purposes!)

One interesting potential deal is with Horizon Fuel Cells. There have been indications on HFC's facebook page of 'meetings' with Sony. At the same time ACTA have existing relationship with Horizon. Really big potential if that all comes together.

http://en-gb.facebook.com/horizonfuelcell

Horizon already sell a 'desktop electrolyser'
http://www.horizonfuelcell.com/store_uk/hydrofill.htm
http://www.horizonfuelcell.com/store_uk/minipak.htm

ACTA RNS with Horizon

http://www.investegate.co.uk/acta-s...tent-signed-with-horizon/201201050700140212V/

big.chart
 
INFA Oilbarrel newsletter has gone out. Lots more will look at it. As I said fell from 400p but assets increased and economic/political imperative increased since

Management and chart on the front foot again now.
 
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PVCS

someone done some interesting maths on it. There really seems no reason for the Company to be priced at 8p when a little Management action could see it priced closer to the real NTAV i.e. 40p



Livic1971
21 Nov'12 - 17:08 - 113 of 113 0 0

Empirestate - I think you are wrong.

They are trading at 30% of cash. Even accounting for onerous contracts and ignoring all other assets like inventory which are saleable they are trading at about half cash.

The market is unlikely to leave this at 8p because if the cash is returned by a buyback then there is really no upper limit to where the price can go. They have 120 million Euros they can buy back all their shares for 40 million Euros. Each share they buy at 8p drives the cash backing of the remaining shares up even higher.

Example:

At 120 million Euros cash backing is 28 cents per share.

If they buy back 100 million shares at 8p (10 Euro cents for a total of 10 million) cash backing rises to 35 cents per share.

If they buy back another 100 million shares at 8p (20 million Euros spent) cash backing rises to 45 cents per share.

If they buy back another 100 million shares at 8p (30 million Euros spent) cash backing rises to 75 cents per share.

So basically by spending 25% of their net cash they could triple the cash backing per share to around 60p. Obviously no one would sell at 8p and allow this and clearly the market will have to start pricing in this possibility!

Any form of buyback will show how truely farcical this price is as the free float will quickly get decimated and anyone short may have a VW moment. They would be extremely stupid to give out dividends trading so low relative to cash without buying up shares first as its not a cost effective way of distributing cash.

While its not clear exactly how much cash they have to play with its clearly more than the current market cap.

I suggested to them 6 months ago they buyback to 12-15p and then issue a dividend. I was told my letter was discussed by the BoD.
 
GCM - that results RNS reads quite well and they seem to be starting to finally deliver some progress towards progress.

Expect some big quick moves once the overhang is out of the way.
 
jaspa888 said:
I was in WTI a 2-3 years ago, and this company has real potential. Copper prices are holding well, there is a revised study due for their Tschudi copper project in Namibia, and mooted interest of capex investment from Chinese companies against futures.

Chart looks interesting too...

big.chart
Click to expand...

Looked like it was about to break down. Will todays news be good enough to help reverse that ? On the face of it a $30m NPV project at 8% discount rate doesn't seem all that great ?
 
INFA tipped in Shares Mag today apparently ?

Wanted to buy more but will wait next weeks results now.
 
GGG looking promising for a move above 50 day MA but will be constricted by 200 day and I still don't think it'll be economic anyway.
 
South Koreans are keen on jumping in for the rare earth minerals. There will be some feasability at some point for it. But the complete ban on uranium was a sticking point. Infact in 2010 GGG were the only company allowed by the Gov to carry out limited mining for a feasability study. But the company came back and said, sorry we will contravene the limits imposed in the ban if we go ahead and carry out the study.

Since then, Koreans and Chinese have been wooing the Greenland Gov.
 
jaspa888 said:
GULP!

Seen LRL, EE?
Click to expand...

s28 put me off!! LOL

I was about to buy at around 12p before I posted it here. Then it went to 17 literally straightaway. I was following it intermittently since then!

Missed the news today!

Why go into trading halt? Just effin release the news. It makes no sense. Could it be bad news and they to make a killing on AIM before they release it?
 
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Chalo still made a quick profit....in at 20.50 and out at 21.75 :) I was trying to sell as soon as it hit 23 but took ages to sell.

REM has no cash. They have shares in GGG and thats about it. Not sure how many they have.
 
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I am very tempted in putting an order in for GGG today. Such Palava with Jarvis, have to specify number of shares... extra charges for the custodian buying in Aus and they will probably screw you on exchange rate as well.

How is TDW like for buying foreign stock?
 
oops II

To be fair :-p in posts (2821 and 2822) I did say wait for 200 day MA break which it did and once that was out the way and it had a retest that's when it really went for it.

I think you are right to hold off now. These early test results from unconventional plays don't tend to be 'gushers' they have to be de-watered and results require a lot of analysis.
 
REM only worth a go if GGG go up a lot (which I don't expect anyway). I think REM own 0.3% of GGG which is worth about $0.5m for a Company REM valued at £1.5m so shouldn't really move the needle. More likely though their licences next door might be regarded as worthwhile. Technically it has a whole load of upside resistance though so looks worse than GGG on that score.
 
Jaspa - have you sold your RRL shares, if not, hold it for little longer. There is a pump coming.

Bought back into RRL today.
 
Problem is Landau looks like he is losing his touch. EK and TW on his case talking of 1p.

Chart looks like dead cat bounce at best ? Needs to get above that 50 day MA

big.chart
 
AGM and deep TT drill result coming up. Always a pump, and then it usually follows with sh1t news. If you are selling then might as well sell at the best price you can get :)

Near term finances are sorted.
 
I sold out of EOG today at a loss, waited and waited for Mackay to release something worthwhile! Dont tell me he is now going to pump it!
 
Eagle_Eye said:
Jaspa - have you sold your RRL shares, if not, hold it for little longer. There is a pump coming.

Bought back into RRL today.
Click to expand...

I sold a couple of days ago mate, and bought into AFREN. Sods Law if PL now pulls his finger out!
 
It's ok EE I'm used to the adversarial nature of City 'trading rooms' where you have to justify your position and have it constantly challenged so you don't become a 'stale bull'. I think it's more educational to have a full and frank exchange of views on here than ***** foot around.

[Edit : what is wrong with using the old english non-offensive expression *****-footing around ?

http://www.thefreedictionary.com/pussyfooting

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/pol...-pussyfooting-around-and-fix-the-economy.html ]
 
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GCM - looks like positive moves on the ground there.

So in recent weeks in the press we have had

Experts agree on coal policy
Government tell Local Authorities to co-operate with GCM
Prospect of GCM Chairman flying out to talk to Hasina

and now

They are banning the main protest group from protesting...

http://bdnews24.com/details.php?id=236838&cid=2

I think finally we are seeing the project gain momentum but it's not being reflected in the share price due to an overhang which could go any day.
 
INFA maybe short term overextended technically and Golden Cross about to occur which could mean a negative counter-trend move initially to 'retest' 50 and 200 day MA's.

Results Monday should be backward looking and unexciting.

Expect the fireworks in terms of newsflow to come before or after the December 11th Oilbarrel presentation and also maybe around the Government policy review details if they do say anything directly about Gas Storage or financing of such strategically important facilities.

INFA having BP as a 50% equity partner on Islandmagee is great and gives some indication of the calibre of Company they could attract to the much bigger Portland project if the Government put some weight behind getting that funded/progressed as well.
 
Well some movement seems to have occurred after the World Bank criticism of Bangle Government relating to Padma Bridge kickbacks.

I'd love to see GCM get some decent local companies as equity partners (doesn't have to be in the coal mining company but the mine-mouth power plant perhaps) and also an Arab SWF like Qatar etc to come in as well.

It should have also concentrated Hasina's mind now that elections are within 12 months.
 
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Yes. Still not had the Mackay independent shale gas news or the Kiernan prospect stuff.
 
So who made fun of me and said Nokia is done with? :afridi

I don't want to speak to soon but Nokia's making me look smart.
 
Badsha said:
So who made fun of me and said Nokia is done with? :afridi

I don't want to speak to soon but Nokia's making me look smart.
Click to expand...

It was probably me.

But to be fair we have been going on about a 'dash for trash' for ages here and Nokia fits the bill on at least 2 of the 3 U's.

Undervalued (Fundamental analysis) , Underowned (Sentiment / Technical analysis : Institutional/PI ownership ) , Unloved (Sentiment / Technical analysis : Broker views) .

But the Fundamentals don't stack up to me. For a perfect stock in your 'dash for trash' portfolio you want all 3 U's to align perfectly.
 
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SOLO - you seen that options package for Lenigas and Ritson ? Well they need to get the shares up to at least 1.5p I reckon to make that worth their while. I think that's highly possible. Bunch of ****s that they are.
 
PVCS

from advfn

Livic1971
23 Nov'12 - 12:20 - 128 of 129 0 0

I am not so sure the grants influence anything but the timing of a sale. I think its telling that the Interims in August was less than 5 years after the groundbreaking you identified and these November results are more than 5 years after. My gut feeling is the groundbreaking is probably the relevant date.

Its 20 million reasons to keep it open a few more months. In the books in August there is a 20 million liability under grants so this looks to be taken into account. There are also 30 million reasons to close Bitterfield this tax year leaving an optimal time window to close it.

Current assets minues TOTAL liabilities (including this grant and onerous contract provisions) was €205 million minues €105 million or €100 million.

If the grant payback lapses there is €120 million of current assets after all liabilities are paid.

There was a further €90 million of fixed assets which I suspect will be largely worthless so I am not counting those.

Even if they get us the current assets and keep the grant money we are looking at 24p/share. If they could realise whats on the books its 40p/share but very unlikely. In reality I think they will get most of the current assets (~80%) and maybe 20% of the fixed assets as they are already heavily written down. They could even be worth quite a lot simply as a listed entity with the tax losses. It would not surprise me if they sold PVCS as a cash shell to a completely different type of business.
 
s28 said:
SOLO - you seen that options package for Lenigas and Ritson ? Well they need to get the shares up to at least 1.5p I reckon to make that worth their while. I think that's highly possible. Bunch of ****s that they are.
Click to expand...

LOL

I saw that earlier and was umming about whether to buy back in. But already holding (and waiting) in INFA and EOL so havent.
 
s28, EE

What are your AIM holdings by value as a percentage of total AIM portfolio?

SXX 45%
XEL 21%
INFA 17%
GCM 6%
GKP 4%
AFR 4%
GBP 2%
FDI 1%
XEN 1%
 
s28 said:
SOLO - you seen that options package for Lenigas and Ritson ? Well they need to get the shares up to at least 1.5p I reckon to make that worth their while. I think that's highly possible. Bunch of ****s that they are.
Click to expand...

they extended 204 million existing ones too...

will they go down to 12.5% or less in event of a farm in?
 
Cripes.

No idea it's split amongst 7 different accounts !

Rough guess something like

GCM, PVCS, INFA, EOG, GON, CNR, SRB, GBP, MWA and then a long tail including SOLO, FOGL, TAN, ACTA, RGM

PVCS and GBP don't really count, fully backed by cash and acting like it :-(
 
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Eagle_Eye said:
they extended 204 million existing ones too...

will they go down to 12.5% or less in event of a farm in?
Click to expand...

I think the plan is to go to 12.5% in that farm-in RNS they announced this week. Back costs or 50% of repayment of back costs alone could be significant, not done the maths myself though.
 
s28 said:
Cripes.

No idea it's split amongst 7 different accounts !

Rough guess something like

GCM, PVCS, INFA, EOG, GON, CNR, SRB, GBP, MWA and then a long tail including SOLO, FOGL, TAN, ACTA, RGM
Click to expand...

You lazy ****, use google finance portfolio to aggregate them!

Is that is [rough] order? I sold out of GON last week because I was getting bored of waiting. I also want to get out of FDI but Ive lost my login details :)
 
Heh heh i'd rather not do the aggregating it's too painful :-p

It's bad enough doing the annual tax return and seeing the contract notes showing how much I paid for some of that ****

yeah in rough order

GCM and PVCS about 50% of the portfolio
 
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Only invested in 2 shares as of today

USOP -20%
RRL - 80%

I am investing short term and holding cash. It might change next week. Closely watching:

GGG: ASX
LRL
NEW
FOGL

USOP is either boom or bust for me :)
 
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Energy Bill will be next week. Ed Davey has announced Coalition have agreed on broad policy.

Osbourne the Chancellor wanted 'Dash for Gas' as it's cheaper.
Davey the Energy Minister wanted Green/Renewables because of the Environment.

Osbourne appears to have won overall but it'll be portrayed as 50-50 to keep the Coalition together.

Davey will make decision shortly on whether Cuadrilla are allowed to Frack shale.

Pending that it should be green light for likes of EOG and INFA.
 
Post on INFA iii discussion board from a few months back

Have a look at this page from the "Energy and Climate Change" Committee Report discussing our gas storage requirements and future policy back in October. I think this offers some big clues about the UK Gas Policy due to be released next quarter.

http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201012/cmselect/cmenergy/1065/106508.htm

Some key quotes and notes:

"The flexibility of gas storage facilities....is the crucial factor as to how well the facility can meet short term fluctuations in demand. DECC noted that gas storage would become increasingly important as the contribution of wind to electricity generation increased because gas fired power plants could provide cover for wind intermittency."

Note the increased importance of gas power generation to support our wind projects. Gas storage is an essential part of our 'green agenda'....

"There are three main types of underground gas storage: injection into water aquifers; into depleted oil and gas fields; and salt caverns......salt caverns can be filled and emptied at a high rate, allowing them to deliver demand response in the medium to short term. Witnesses told us that in the future the UK was more likely to need the "quick-in, quick-out" storage facilities, rather than very large "quasi-strategic" storage."

Note that both Islandmagee and Portland are salt storage projects...

"Gas storage could be used to moderate the effects of gas price spikes.[127] The gas market tends to overreact to supply threats resulting in a short period of very high prices."

We had exactly this effect last winter, after this report was published....

"The UK's current storage capacity is equivalent to about 14 days' worth of supply, compared to 69 in Germany, 59 in Italy, 87 in France, and 66 days in the US.[132] The Sussex Energy Group argued that "an increase in the UK's gas storage capacity is long overdue" adding that it would increase the resilience of the UK's gas supply infrastructure."

This is becoming more and more important given the current world energy instabilities...

"Many witnesses thought that the UK probably needed to double the amount of gas storage it currently had (about 4.4 bcm) by 2020.[134] BP told us that in order to bring gas storage capacity in line with other major EU Member States, the UK should increase its capacity to about 15 bcm."

Note the involvement of BP here....

"The issue of gas storage is likely to worsen as the proportion of intermittent renewable generation increases, since more flexible gas-fired power plants may be required to provide "backup" when the wind does not blow."

Basically, we need a Strategic Gas Plan urgently....

"DECC emphasised to us that the "huge growth" in the UK's LNG import capacity increased resilience to supply interruptions.[141] However, other witnesses did not agree with suggestions that LNG was a wholly relevant replacement for physical gas storage."

Considering increased world demand, particularly from Asia with Japan down to just one nuclear power station, LNG is no longer our savior. Also, AFAIK it doesn't offer the type of fast demand that we require to supplement wind power....

"The UK needs more gas storage capacity capable of delivering gas at a high rate. The Department of Energy and Climate Change should be concerned about the lack of gas storage used to manage seasonal demand fluctuations. It should aim to double the UK's current gas storage from current levels by 2020 in order to avoid exposure to gas supply interruptions and price spikes, and, in the longer term, to ensure a resilient gas supply to flexible gas plants acting as "backup" to intermittent electricity generated from wind."

Reiteration of the urgent need for increased gas storage as a key conclusion to the report, I wonder if some sort of incentive could be given to gas storage like has been to wind energy? The report goes on about costs and opportunities for gas storage etc,

I'm really looking forward to the release of the government gas plan, by which time I hope planning has been sorted. I'm convinced that shares squirreled away now will be worth a multiple more by year end.
 
CLON - showing LRL type signs with breakout of 50 and 200 day MA then retraced 50% of initial move. Technicals still short term overbought though but that didn't stop LRL from keeping on going. Just mentioning not a fan of CLON because it all seems a bit murky.
 
INFA - results tomorrow. Not expecting any major news that should come later not in a historical accounting report. Having said that will be interesting how they re-value Portland their major asset as in intervening accounting periods it's gone from a 50% holding to 100%. Interesting that the snippet in Shares Magazine last week highlighted that the NAV/share was c.17p and that this report might spur a move back towards that level.
 
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INFA - news out. Headline loss (non cash provision) on accounting treatment of Portland Gas Storage project may alarm (£19m for a £10m company) but the cash is better than I expect at £2m and the exploration projects and Islandmagee look good.
 
They have Cairn as existing 20% partners for Northern Ireland oil and gas exploration already so maybe they could just farm down some more to Cairn ? Cairn took the position by dint of acquisition of Nautical so may not see it as core unless given a decent 'fairway' story.

But given how hot Irish prospecting is right now it looks like they will have plenty of interested partners. Onshore wells so should be less expensive. Also some talk about combining the two wells they intend to drill for gas storage (with BP) and oil exploration. Not sure how feasible that will be.

Todays Exploration Update only mentions the oil prospect in that licence which is meant to be a continuation of the Morecambe Bay area. I've seen previous estimates of 2-3tcf which would be material (400-500mmboe) and highly strategic to the existing owners of Morecambe Bay which I understand is depleting and has been major UK strategic gas play for Centrica. I'm sure Centrica might be interested. They own Rough as well so know the value of Gas storage.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/may/03/viewpoint-centrica

As expected as today is Golden Cross crossover day a bit of a counter-trend move. This may go on for a few days.

But they will have some interesting prospects to showcase on December 11th and maybe they are leaving revealing full gas prospects in Northern ireland until seismic interpretation complete and post Chancellors December 5th 'Gas Strategy' announcement.
 
Dorset actually looks very promising in itself. Less obvious who the partners might be. Existing discoveries makes it exciting though. In oil equivalent terms you are looking at c.13mmboe which could be worth $200m at $15 EV/bbl not a bad potential hit rate for a what $5m well ? Must be 50% CoS if they have existing discoveries simply being re-entered ?

Actually Dorset is 'near' Wytch Farm so could be some interest from existing players. Cairn also own 10% interest here so again if they can sell them the story they may come in for more.

p1918_dorsetprospects.png
 
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This is what I think sets INFA apart.

They have prospects which may not be mega in and of themselves but are potentially huge Company-makers for a £10m minnow but crucially they are also strategically located so that they can be tied into existing infrastructure and monetized relatively simply.

All that on top of the potential optionality of those massive strategic gas projects.
Plus the potential salt mining at Portland which could generate revenue of $25-50m p.a. based on my back of an envelope guessing ?
 
Wytch Farm may not mean much to some people but we had to hear about it in GCSE Geography lessons back in the day.

BP field, near INFA's licences. 500m barrels of oil with peak production of over 100,000 bopd.

I think it is still producing at c.50,000 bopd ?

http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_int...al_assets/downloads/U/uk_asset_wytch_farm.pdf

Didn't really take much notice previously but look at the areal extent of INFA's Lulworth Banks gas accumulation compared with the Wytch Farm oil accumulation on that map.

INFA could have a real play with this Dorset exploration licence WITH Discoveries and it still plays second billing to the Northern Irish stuff. Interesting.

They just need to get out and tell this story to people who have half a clue and this becomes a great story stock. Luckily December 11th at Oilbarrel they will do exactly that to people who will understand the significance of mentions of Morecambe Bay and Wytch Farm.
 
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Good call on the short term retrace, s28. I'm surprised market has reacted so badly actually.
 
It was about 5-6p prior to Oct 18th planning permission grant on Islandmagee. A 100-150% move to 12.5p in the space of a month is probably enough for some who've been locked in for a year or more. However I am just starting to understand the potential and I've been looking at it closely for last couple of weeks. They have kept this pretty much under wraps until now.

and of course all the press will only report the headline numbers i.e. a £10m company making a £19m loss.

Even that of course could be positive. Hey Mr Osbourne we've had to write-down the value of our Portland Gas Storage project and we probably might not proceed... how about some nice incentives for investment in National Strategic assets such as that in your 'dash for gas' strategy ?
 
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If anyone fancies a free Orange Juice and going to be in and around the City on 4th December...

I received this open invitation via email

Edison drinks Tuesday 4 December, London

Dear *******,

As a reminder, we will again be hosting a drinks reception for people we know in the mining sector while many of you are in London for the Mines and Money conference (4 and 5 December).

From 5.30pm till 7.30pm on Tuesday 4 December we'll have a tab behind the bar of the Pitcher & Piano, 68 Upper Street, N1 0NY, around the corner from the conference. See the link below for details.

No need to reply to this email; if you can make it – great, we look forward to seeing you there.

We have also issued our latest Gold report, which can be downloaded here.

Best regards,

Oliver Haslam
Director
Edison Investment Research Limited
Lincoln House
296-302 High Holborn
London
WC1V 7JH
 
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