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GBP may start to get interesting in a few months with HRT set to drill 4 wells offshore Namibia starting next month

Multi-billion barrel Brazil/Tupi pre-salt analogues potentially (http://www.offshore-mag.com/article...s-pre-salt-attract-investments-to-africa.html)


HRT announces the receipt of Transocean Marianas semi-submersible rig

RIO DE JANEIRO, Jan. 15, 2013 /CNW/ - HRT Participações em Petróleo S.A. (the "Company" or "HRT") (BM&FBOVESPA: HRTP3, TSX-V: HRP) announces that it has received the semi-submersible drilling-rig Transocean-Marianas from Transocean (NYSE: RIG), offshore Ghana, at zero hour of January 15th, 2013. The rig will be in transit to Namibian waters for the next three weeks and, then, she will undergo mandatory maintenance for the following 21 days, before starting HRT's drilling campaign in Walvis and Orange sedimentary basins.

The Marianas is expected to be on location to start drilling the first well in Namibia, in the Wingat Prospect, in Walvis basin at HRT's Petroleum Exploration License-23 (Pel-23) by the end of 1Q13. Wingat is located in 1,000-meter water depth and its drilling operations are expected to last approximately 60 days.

"The arrival of the Transocean-Marianas is excellent news for HRT and GALP. She is arriving within the planned timeframe to start one of the most expected and exciting drilling campaigns in Southern offshore West Africa", added the CEO, Marcio R. Mello.
 
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GCM some news emanating from POL source / RNS

big.chart
 
What's are the chances that Hasina's relatives are interested via a nominee account?

It looks like a classic Mexican stand-off between GoB and GCM. One is nearing an election, with the country facing power shortages, the other is running out of cash.
 
They haven't said they are selling out. They have always said sell 'part or all of their interest'. Part of that open invitation was I think simply to gauge some idea of the array of interest out there which could conceivably come from multiple avenues which have been alluded to in various Bangladeshi press reports i.e. Bangladesh Government directly or via one of its arms i.e. BPDB or Petrobangla. Another avenue would be to sell to Private Bangladeshi conglomerates who have shown interest in tendering for BOO (Build-Own-Operate) contracts for Coal-fired power plants. Foreign companies or SWFs might also have some interest given that this is potentially a long life World Class tier one coal asset.

Anyone who thinks POL are going to sell anywhere around this price is very naive. From memory POL started a process to sell CDN and over that time the share price went from 10p to 100p.
 
jaspa888 said:
What's are the chances that Hasina's relatives are interested via a nominee account?

It looks like a classic Mexican stand-off between GoB and GCM. One is nearing an election, with the country facing power shortages, the other is running out of cash.
Click to expand...

GCM have cash and short term investments to last them well into 2014 so they have a longer timeline than Hasina. Costs are minimal given scale of the total project. They have the quality of Brokers and Management to pull off minor fundraisings with very little dilution. A major fundraising would only be required or be on the back of substantive news.
 
Wasn't there a rumour about a year ago that POL had turned down £2 for its shareholding?
 
Remember something along those lines. This current rumour emanates from POL doing broker/investor roadshow at the moment and at one of those a Mining Sector specialist salesman at one of the brokers asked directly whether they'd been bid for their stake and got the answer yes and then put it out in a note to clients which is what necessitated the RNS today.
 
A useful side effect has been potential for enough volume to clear Leone overhang. Stock broken downtrend and 50 day today.200 next target.
 
I thought cdn and polo merged rathr than polo selling its stake, 11 shares in polo for every caledonian share
 
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http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b8f2bcda-e38d-11e0-8f47-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2IijBWg5M

September 20, 2011 7:34 pm

Small caps: Polo in possible GCM holding disposal

By Neil Hume and Bryce Elder

Polo Resources was in focus on Tuesday amid rumours the resource investment company could be about to dispose of its 29.82 per cent holding in GCM Resources , which is developing the Phulbari coal project in Bangladesh.

Earlier this month, Polo said it had instructed advisers to evaluate strategic options for the stake. The talk in the market on Tuesday was that Polo might sell the holding either to the government of Bangladesh or Malaysia’s sovereign wealth fund.

Polo’s average ‘’in-price’’ for its stake is 170p. As such, traders reasoned that Polo would want a decent premium to that price and some sort of option that would allow the company to share in the upside should GCM get regulatory approval for Phulbari. Shares in Polo firmed 2.4 per cent to 5.9p, while GCM rose 14.1 per cent to 113p.
 
RIMM going crazy, over $18 in after hours trade. I honestly thought this would hit 10, but 18!!

BB10 is going to take this stock to 50 or to 5. Who is willing to punt?
 
EOG AGM presentation from December

http://www.europaoil.com/documents/AGMPresentation11.12.12_000.pdf

Stated in Black and White they want to be a top quartile AIM Company with Market Cap > £100m (versus c.£12m today)

Interesting thing is PEDL181 look at its size on the map and the potential shale gas potential compared with PEDL180/182 which they share with EDR and look at the proximity to major gas installations (which will need more gas as the North Sea stuff runs out)

They of course make no mention of Shale Gas at all !
 
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s28 said:
p.php
p.php
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TYM potentially on the move. Transformational US reserve 'estimate' expected by end of this month.

Bulfords advice currently 'Buy up to 15p with 30p target'

This new reserve could increase their total resource 2-4x so what happens to the price target ? 60-120p ?
 
S28, what are your views on SRB? I am thinking of buying more.

Have you averaged down as i vaguely remember you saying you brought some in the late 20p.
 
I bought some SRB as high as 40p alas I doubt it will ever get there but I am pretty confident they could be paying dividends of 2-3p per share a couple of years down the line if gold goes up and they consolidate off their production base to acquire other near term production and fund exploration to increase mine life. So at 6p it looks good and you are buying at the same price as billionaire investors. Only issue is being a minority holder.
 
GCM on the ground giving aid and succour to the poor people of Phulbari

This isn't a Company on the back foot !

http://www.energybangla.com/2013/01/23/2498.html#.UP_2qycj6Vk

Birampur, Dinajpur: Blanket has been distributed on 21st January among poor at Khanpur Union Parishad campus of Birampur under the project area. Mr. Nuruzzaman Raza said we are working to ensure interest of the local poor people. The anti-mine ill-activities of the outsiders will have to be inhibited. The President of North Bengal Mineral Resources Reporters’ Forum Mr. Morshed Manik said not only the company but ADB and other organizations also committed to work for betterment of the livelihoods of the mine affected people. The country and the country-men will be beneficent if coal is extracted from the mine. Former chairman Mr. Hafizul Islam said the peace-seeking people of coalmine area at Birampur end want peaceful solution of the mining issue. However, cold affected poor people expressed their satisfaction on getting the blanket and said the anti-mine activists only do politics over the poor people and none of them came forward to help the cold affected people. Many including Abdul Kuddus, Mozammel, Firoza, Ayub Uddin expressed their satisfaction. They said, If the Govt. pays proper compensation for the mine, then the local people and the country as a whole would be beneficent. The district BNP leader and former chairman of Birampur upazila Mr. Tosaddek Hossain Tosa, Journalist Akram Hossain, Zia Sarker, Milon Sarker, Mokhlesar Rahman Nobab, Mizan Sirker, Ibrahim Babu also present among others.
Recently, mass-support is growing day by day in favor of the Phulbari coal project located at Parbatipur, Birampur, Phulbari and Nawabganj upazials for extracting the coal, and therefore the anti-mine leftist leaders are getting hopeless.
 
Good RNS from RRL. Excellent progress regarding Trinidad, though PL continues to lose credibility with his 6000 bopd estimate. Keep it real, especially when you have zero credit left with pis.

The absence of anything apart from Trinidad suggests further newsflow to follow for other territories.
 
Buying Shares?

Got back in via my ISA with a small position about 3 weeks ago. Still think it is under valued due to supporting NAV, even if PL is a ***.
 
Information from 2 crucial well is not forthcoming.

The deep well (6000ft) so far has been dry. That is the one that needs to come good else its curtains for Range.

All the other shallow wells are eating money without giving much back for too long. That is why he is not publishing the current bopd.
 
40 million share placement to buy 20% stake in a company that has 80 stake in assets in Guetamala, 2.5 mb reserves with more exploration upside.
 
Buying Shares?

As much as I ridicule PL, Hugh Mackay should take ramping 101 classes from him.
 
PHE - weird one but wondering whether it is worth a pop like buying just 1 share ? Been a huge failure up to now and basically controlled by Peter Bond of Linc Energy

http://www.discussthemarket.com/phe-stream/

Linc Energy (ASX: LNC) has been on fire recently up over 400% in last year or so. It's a Billion dollar Market Cap company involved in UCG mainly. Lots of small associated interests in deriving fuel from otherwise 'stranded' assets (dirty coal, waste etc). PHE was meant to be some sort of waste-to-energy play but failed and the stock crashed from 20p to 1p. Current spread is 0.6-1.5p so you lose almost 60% straight away on paper. Just wondering whether with Bond having got Linc seemingly back on track (recently announced they've found more shale oil in Australia than conventional oil in Saudi) whether his appetite may be back to do something with PHE which looks like a shell awaiting some real business being injected in.

p.php


Been almost zero news coming out of PHE for months.

10 October 2012

PowerHouse Energy Group plc

(the "Company" or "PowerHouse")

Hill Grove assumes $250,000 loan

In the Chairman's Statement accompanying the annual results for the year ended
31 December 2011, the Chairman of PowerHouse stated that Linc Energy Ltd
("Linc") had advised the Company that it had assigned all its rights under the
convertible loan agreement entered into by the Company and Linc on 19 June 2012
to Hill Grove Investments Pty Limited ("Hill Grove"). The Company has been
further advised that all obligations under the convertible loan agreement were
assumed by Hill Grove with effect from 19 June 2012 and Linc holds no interest
or obligation in respect to such agreement. All loans advanced to the Company
to date under the agreement, which amounts to $80,000, have been made by Hill
Grove.

Hill Grove holds 20,000,000 ordinary shares in the Company, representing 7.03
per cent. of the issued share capital of the Company. Hill Grove is
beneficially owned by Peter Bond, who holds approximately 40 per cent of the
issued share capital of Linc, of which he is Chief Executive and Managing
Director.
 
The other one which might be worth a look if China / risk appetite / Australian "s**t being turned into something half useful never mind the actual economics" is concerned is ANR Altona Energy

This has coal licences in same Ackaringa Basin as Linc's massive Shale Oil find. So they could potentially share infrastructure ? Have CNOOC involved in some capacity to fund $40m project to do a CTL (coal to liquid project at Ackaringa). Current Mkt Cap of ANR £10m. Looks like they will need to raise funds but some drilling due to get underway and taking on some near term cash producing coal assets in China.

http://www.discussthemarket.com/anr-stream/

big.chart
 
No news from INFA AGM.

New Investor Presentation.

http://www.infrastrata.co.uk/images/stories/Presentations/agm_presentation_250113.pdf

Maybe some delays. Drilling expected Q4 2013 and Q1 2014 on 3 major projects.

Slide 12


OUTLOOK
Anticipated newsflow for the coming 12 months

‰ For each of the three wells – confirmation of all consents and approvals, commencement of site
construction, commencement of drilling and results of drilling
‰ New Competent Persons Report
‰ Farmout of each exploration project to fund drilling
‰ Portland project updates
‰ Interim and Final results

Andrew Hindle, CEO commented with the recent results:
"Good progress has been made in assessing and defining the prospectivity within the Company's exploration
acreage. The coming year will see an increasing focus of the Company's activities towards its exploration
portfolio. The upside potential of the licences for the Company is very significant.”
 
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BZM looks convincing breakout, maybe retest the 200 day and allow technicals to work off short term overbought but risk is there is little/no resistance maybe just big round number at 20

RRL attempted breakout failed eventually so maybe next move is down ?
 
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s28 said:
BZM - does look very undervalued compared to peers in Africa such as Sundance and Affero going by this Presentation

http://www.bellzone.com/images/downloads/Londonpressbriefing.pdf

Is there some kink in Infrastructure, political risk, grade, depth, metallurgy which could explain that ?
Click to expand...

Before investing I was racking my brain as to why it had dropped so much. I came up with:

- Iron ore prices went through the floor
- West Africa, unstable region
- Large Cap ex
- Secretive chinese partner
- Risk Off markets

They have demonstrated that they can bring this project to fruition, infrastructure has largely been built and shipment started already. Now if they can demonstrate that all can go glitch free and increase production, I can only see the SP going up. Its a nice short and medium term banker. They want to increase production upto 10mpta by the end of the year.

It costs them around $40/tonne currently, do you know what the net back for Iron Ore producers is generally?

Assuming $140/tonne price
Cost - $40
Gov - $60
BZM = $40

I would estimate between $40 - $400 million revenue in the next 12 months.

Does this seem reasonable to you?
 
ANR funding out of the way for now (well for about six months?)


Altona Energy plc (AIM:ANR) announces that it has entered into an agreement for the placing of 90,300,000 new ordinary shares ('the Placing Shares') in the Company at an issue price of 1.5 pence per share to raise £1,354,500 before costs ('the Placing'). The Placing has been arranged by the Company's Broker, Old Park Lane Capital Plc ('OPL'), and will provide additional working capital for the Company.
 
Yeah if Management pull their fingers out their backsides.

EOG and EDR work quite closely together. EDR management been buying shares recently. Maybe they are bullish on the joint EDR/EOG Q2 Wressle drill or their shale prospects.

EOG chart looking a bit better having retested MA's
 
s28 said:
does look interesting

big.chart
Click to expand...

Still above it's MAs will be interesting if it can stay above its MAs whilst working off short term overbought technicals.

Should be a Golden Cross as well in a few weeks if it does.

Iron ore plays had a huge run and probably due a good rest / work off technicals.

My preference remains producers (AYM through LIM) and those which haven't moved yet but could be due a run e.g. FCR ? Although FCR still got 200 day MA overhead which will take some getting through. Might be back end loaded for 2013 ?
 
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s28 said:
Still above it's MAs will be interesting if it can stay above its MAs whilst working off short term overbought technicals.

Should be a Golden Cross as well in a few weeks if it does.

Iron ore plays had a huge run and probably due a good rest / work off technicals.

My preference remains producers (AYM through LIM) and those which haven't moved yet but could be due a run e.g. FCR ? Although FCR still got 200 day MA overhead which will take some getting through. Might be back end loaded for 2013 ?
Click to expand...

I think news maybe a few months away so will drift around 14p.
 
Missed the boat on TYM... mistake on my part.

Not willing to buy in before the report is out. Dont want to get caught out if its underwhelming.
 
AYM has 20% of LIM which is to start production in April of 2 mpta. The production cost is quite high ($100-$110 pt) from what I can read on the ii bb which means it is dependant on iron Ore prices to remain at the level they are now.
 
I was asked offline about EDL.

EDL is Edenville Energy an AIM listed stock exploring for coal in Tanzania.

Coal is always an in demand commodity as Thermal Coal is the fuel that provides a lot of the Worlds baseload power whilst Coking Coal is a key ingredient in steel making. At this juncture in the economic cycle where World economic demand is starting to pick up generally I would prefer commodity stocks which are more 'geared' to 'cyclical' growth than steady 'defensive' growth so I'd be favouring Coking Coal over Thermal Coal stocks as a rule.

Geographically speaking Tanzania is close to Mozambique which is an emerging commodities mining area where the likes of BAO are present. A lot of Majors also mining or developing mining projects in this area also. This means infrastructure spending could be shared or otherwise speeded up making it easier for Junior companies to operate. However it might also mean they get crowded out of say Ports or Railways with limited capacity ? Finally although Mozambique seems popular with Major mining companies Tanzania is less so due to it raising taxes and royalties on Companies operating there.

So does Edenville have a decent project ? At this stage their project seems well short of being 'World Class'. It is a very early stage project as the resource is only defined up to the 'Inferred' (basically an educated guess level of confidence) there will need to be a lot of work done to raise the confidence in the estimate to 'Indicated' and then 'Measured' Resource category let alone partake further economic/metallurgical studies to determine whether these Resources are Commercial and thus qualify as economic 'Reserves'.

An important consideration with junior Mining/Exploration companies is do they have enough cash to operate and do the extensive exploration studies to improve the size and quality of their resource so they can eventually get near actually mining and selling the resource. Judging by the last Annual Report ( http://www.investegate.co.uk/edenvi.../annual-financial-report/201205310700104695E/ ) EDL are looking a bit cash strapped and they may need to come to the Market for more money. This would dilute current shareholders and thus reduce the potential upside going forward. A broker has recently started coverage ( http://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/e/edenville-energy-plc-ord-0.02p/broker-forecasts ) which makes me suspicious a capital raising may be imminent.

Chart wise the stock has been strong in the last six months rising from 0.15 to 0.30 and a very positive 'Golden Cross' has formed which is usually a precursor to further gains. However EDL has significant resistance above in the 0.40-0.50 range and with potential for a capital raising that will be tough to overcome. The Broker target is 0.49 which gives some indication of potential upside. Chartwise only a break of 0.50 could see 1.00 quite quickly because on the way down the stock 'gapped down' so the lack of support on the way down could be mirrored by the lack of resistance on the way up.

big.chart


All in all EDL doesn't have enough 'ticks in the box' for me to invest myself mainly because it is very early stage, targeting a 'defensive' commodity and they will need to raise a lot of cash to develop their resource classification let alone get to production thus diluting shareholders a lot on the journey.
 
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TYM looks like it's set up great for news tomorrow. Let's hope they deliver. If they do with Tom Bulford having a 'Buy up to 15p with target of 30p' and Broker targets of 30p currently the potential target prices could go up substantially and Bulfords next update is due Friday 1st February.
 
s28 said:
TYM looks like it's set up great for news tomorrow. Let's hope they deliver. If they do with Tom Bulford having a 'Buy up to 15p with target of 30p' and Broker targets of 30p currently the potential target prices could go up substantially and Bulfords next update is due Friday 1st February.
Click to expand...

Touché to that! :)
Jaspa888 you in with TYM too?
 
Buying Shares?

Smallish position in TYM. Will look to buy more after retrace if good news tomorrow
 
ANR which i mentioned a few days ago as potentially interesting if/when funding sorted has been smashed with an Institution dumping at 0.6p apparently. Worth keeping an eye on as it has in the past generated interest so could have double whammy of overhang clearing and return to newsflow/PI interest.
 
boooooo TYM :)

well done guys, i got left watching from sidelines. I'll short it at some point after the report is out
 
Ive still got a decent stake in EOG that seems to be going nowhere fast thanks to HM's old-fashioned attitude to ramping. Wish I'd put it into TYM now.
 
I'm also in EOG, and have to say it has been the one I expected the most from but actually down and have been for a while. Waiting to get out of that one.
 
Onetwentie said:
I'm also in EOG, and have to say it has been the one I expected the most from but actually down and have been for a while. Waiting to get out of that one.
Click to expand...

A bit of patience is required onetwentie. You are currently enjoying the spoils of a bull market, where several shares are multibagging in weeks. It looks easy being a master trader right now, just like back in 2009.

But take it from me that you should be looking at fundamentals, newsflow and potential rather then just short-term SP. There is nothing more galling than looking at just short-term SP, selling out, and watching a share quadruple in weeks.
 
TYM always worth being aware after a strong run into a widely flagged datapoint that it may well be 'underwhelming' or that expectations maybe get ahead of themselves.

Having said that this is a potential 'World Class' project for what the US regard as a Strategic Mineral of which there is no production in the US and China is the main producer but could become net importer itself a few years down the line. The mineral layer is reasonably thick and the grade reasonable so extraction and refining should be relatively easy.

The Company have set a target out there of 110m tonnes @ 10% implying about 11m tonnes. Acid grade Fluorspar apparently sells at $500/tonne. So in-situ value could be $5bn. As a rule of thumb i'd apply 1% value to in-situ resource so it could be worth $50m ? Versus current Mkt Cap of £15m ? Then if they prove up the resource and get towards actual mining it could be valued at 5-10% of in-situ value i.e. $250-500m. ? If they really do have historic data from 100 holes that in itself is probably worth $5-10m worth of drilling results in todays money and should really expedite JORC definition of resource and future economic/feasibility studies.
 
EOG

EOG's case for having their planning application granted and the previous decision overturned. Most of it in legalese but looks from my skim over that they are arguing something along the lines of it being in line with 'National Policy' on Energy etc which I think explains why they are keeping quiet on shale as that might queer the pitch.

Why bother about 2m barrels of oil under Surrey if you have multi-TCF (oil equivalent hundreds of millions of barrels) shale gas under Lincolnshire/Humberside ?

http://www.surreycommunity.info/lhag/files/view/an__Details_of_Claim_&_Grounds_of_Law.pdf
 
Jaspa888, some sound advice and very well taken. I guess the point I was making was from mistakes I made in the past where I could have done but didn't only to suffer greatly afterwards. I couldn't agree more however about what one should be looking at, and the research necessary.

S28 excellent advice as always, muchas gracias señor! Some excellent research also on TYM and also on EOG - amazing how you managed to dig out the court order!

.....TYM news tomorrow then eh chaps.......?? :)
 
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Onetwentie said:
S28' excuse the ignorance/lack of experience but would you mind taking a look at this and explain what it means? Is it a case of the director having increased his stake in the business?

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20130201/pdf/42csc6y64b135l.pdf

Got an alert through the ASX app on the iPhone but don't really understand it.

Thanks in advance

Onetwentie
Click to expand...

He has bought 1.8m shares on the market. So it was he, who made the price jump recently!
 
Ah okay.. And it has since retreated somewhat. Is it likely that he's made the purchase in anticipation of good news to come? What other reasons could he have to buy such a volume of shares?
 
Xcite Energy (XEL): Repeat of August Rally Expected For February
January 30, 2013 | Filed under: Bullish,Small Cap,Stocks | Posted by: Zak Mir
Xcite Energy (XEL): Support Above 200 Day Moving Average
Having been a Chartist for over 20 years, there is always a challenge in trying to push boundaries this area just a little further. This is particularly the case in trying to get a new angle in stocks and markets that are currently very popular, where everyone wants to know something which may give them a winning angle on a trade. While most technical analysts are familiar with using moving averages and trend lines in order to predict/project price action, the idea of repetition in terms of patterns is not so commonly used.

However, in the current setup at Xcite Energy it looks to be the case that the price action of January / February 2013 will echo what we saw for July / August 2012. This is a rather esoteric way of looking at the charting situation, but it may very well be that it delivers dividends in this case, particularly considering what the potential upside here should be.

At the same time we should be mindful to employ strict money management points. Indeed, the stop loss concept is important currently as traders may be tempted to get carried away by recent excessively high predictions in terms of the fundamental picture at Xcite from some brokers, and the attendant high the price targets.

While it is difficult not to be a fan of the stock, below the present position of the 200 day moving average at 95p on an end of day close basis we would have to question the best of the near term upside scenario. Nevertheless, it can be said that while there is no sustained price action back below the 200 day line we should be looking at a rally of some 50p to take the shares back towards the top of a rising 2012 price channel at £1.40 plus. The time frame is as soon as the end of February, with the message also being that if there is no positive reaction over the next couple of weeks one would have to question the degree of upside as we actually have here.

big.chart
 
Markets extraordinary at the moment and the January effect holding strong into February. Could we rally all the way to May ?
 
RHPS February edition is out.

Irish oil explorer, Graphite play and a re-tip.

Zzz
 
Deffo a bullish effect at the moment.. Never seen so much green (or lack of red) in my portfolio. Daily gain very good.

Anyone see BHR? Up almost 50% on yesterday's close.

You got your eyes on anything else S28?
 
All the stocks I'm keeping an eye on are pretty much on this thread. I put up the charts so I can keep an eye on them. e.g. I still flick to page 25 to see CPX and GON charts, page 36 to see GCM and back to page 38 to see EOG,INFA and PVCS. Page 40 to see TYM chart etc etc
 
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