UCG / Linc Energy / PHE / ANR / CLNR
http://www.smh.com.au/business/linc-energy-fuel-claims-under-question-20130203-2dslr.html
http://www.smh.com.au/business/linc-energy-fuel-claims-under-question-20130203-2dslr.html
-
Contact the PP Team
Buying shares?
- Thread starter DeadlyVenom
- Start date
Complete throwaway punt CRV still stuck in pincer movement between 50 and 200 day MA
Will look again if it breaks out on volume having got inconsequential small initial position.
These are the sort of stocks which are benefitting from dash for trash as risk appetite returns. Never know which one will run though or when.
Will look again if it breaks out on volume having got inconsequential small initial position.
These are the sort of stocks which are benefitting from dash for trash as risk appetite returns. Never know which one will run though or when.
Onetwentie
Debutant
- Joined
- Nov 29, 2012
- Runs
- 66
S28 can you please post your thoughts on EVO..? It had a massive boom today on the back of takeover speculation but also had a decent rise on Friday. Smallish company but seems to have upside due to patents.
Would love to hear your thoughts.
Would love to hear your thoughts.
EVO was interesting a couple of days ago when it was between it's 50 and 200 day Moving Average lines. Not so much now until it retests those. Their recent statement read like a cry for help so they won't be negotiating from a strong position. Got about one year cash left so it will depend how much interest they get and how good they are at playing poker.
There are other examples on this page let alone a few pages back of the seemingly magic hold the 50 and 200 day MA lines have over charts almost regardless of fundamentals and newsflow. e.g. BZM is back in a pincer between 50 and 200 day so could become interesting again. Not a fan of iron ore though but that didn't stop BAO.
EOG has been moribund and quite rightly Mackay slated for not promoting the potential strongly enough. However this is very interesting. A £14m 'micro cap' UK oiler presenting at a Houston conference. We know likes of Exxon will be drilling Dunquin and the 'conjugate margin' plays are big news in the US. Look at the massive farm-in's being done into areas like Namibia, Morocco etc. Irish Atlantic Margin could be the next big one.
Tommy241
4 Feb'13 - 13:36 - 2399 of 2402 0 0
Broker Wressle, Broughton and Holmwood all have a CoS of over 30%, which is fairly high also.
Both companies are talking at the International Pavilion on Wednesday in Texas.
http://www.internationalpavilion.com/nape_theatre.html
CEO Hugh Mackay Presentation on Ireland Wednesday 6th Feb
8: 45 - 8: 57
Europa Oil & Gas
Hugh Mackay
Prospects: Mullen & Kiernan:
in the South Porcupine Basin Offshore Ireland
Tommy241
4 Feb'13 - 13:36 - 2399 of 2402 0 0
Broker Wressle, Broughton and Holmwood all have a CoS of over 30%, which is fairly high also.
Both companies are talking at the International Pavilion on Wednesday in Texas.
http://www.internationalpavilion.com/nape_theatre.html
CEO Hugh Mackay Presentation on Ireland Wednesday 6th Feb
8: 45 - 8: 57
Europa Oil & Gas
Hugh Mackay
Prospects: Mullen & Kiernan:
in the South Porcupine Basin Offshore Ireland
jaspa888
Local Club Star
- Joined
- Aug 1, 2007
- Runs
- 1,984
Great spot s28
Onetwentie
Debutant
- Joined
- Nov 29, 2012
- Runs
- 66
CEY hearing tomorrow, big day for holders. Either a summary judgement which should see the SP rise considerably or an adjournment which will likely cause a retrace. Anyone else holding?
INFA and PVCS after strong moves look to have 'worked off' short term technical overbought indicators and almost reconnected with short term Moving Averages after Golden Crosses.
i.e. they may be ready to move (hopefully up) on news ?
Page 38 has the charts
http://www.pakpassion.net/ppforum/showthread.php?t=107390&page=38
i.e. they may be ready to move (hopefully up) on news ?
Page 38 has the charts
http://www.pakpassion.net/ppforum/showthread.php?t=107390&page=38
STG - may be a 'breakaway gap' ? A potential gold mine re-opening in Wales on the Crowns land may be seen as a big story in the local rags. With Lenigas behind it I guess it is up to him if he really pushes it to the press as he has enough PR/press contacts to do so.
TYM holding strong at above 12.5p
The right news really could I think propel the stock into the 20-30p range as more people start to talk about potential target prices of 60-120p. Nervous about buying more into the spike right now though. Will reassess the news when it comes, expected Monday.
Also in the background is their Saudi 'rare earth, tantalum, niobium' project which seems to have been awaiting the Saudis to 'sign off' on a simple licence for a few years. That was expected to be the original 'company maker' but seems to have gone very quiet. Best to discount it but to be aware of it.
The right news really could I think propel the stock into the 20-30p range as more people start to talk about potential target prices of 60-120p. Nervous about buying more into the spike right now though. Will reassess the news when it comes, expected Monday.
Also in the background is their Saudi 'rare earth, tantalum, niobium' project which seems to have been awaiting the Saudis to 'sign off' on a simple licence for a few years. That was expected to be the original 'company maker' but seems to have gone very quiet. Best to discount it but to be aware of it.
PLMO got bit confused on the chart thought it had broken 50 and 200 day but I was looking at chart with 20 and 50 day MA.
The stock is just below 200 day and just above 190 day MA so should only take a few days of going sideways and/or some volume/news to take it above the 200 day MA
The stock is just below 200 day and just above 190 day MA so should only take a few days of going sideways and/or some volume/news to take it above the 200 day MA
Times yesterday apparently
Britain could have enough shale gas to heat every home for 1,500 years, according to new estimates that suggest reserves are 200 times greater than experts previously believed. The British Geological Survey is understood to have increased dramatically its official estimate of the amount of shale gas to between 1,300 trillion and 1,700 trillion cubic feet, dwarfing its previous estimate of 5.3 trillion cubic feet.
According to industry sources, the revised estimates will be published by the Government next month, fuelling hopes that new “fracking” techniques to capture trapped resources will result in cheaper energy bills.
It is thought that it will be technically possible to recover up to a fifth of this gas, making Britain’s shale rocks potentially as bountiful as those in the US. Experts stressed that it was still much too early to say how much of the gas it would be economic to get out of the ground to heat homes and help to generate electricity.
In an interview with The Times today, Ed Davey, the Energy and Climate Change Secretary, tries to downplay hopes of a shale gas glut in the UK pushing down household heating bills, which are at record highs. “It is not the golden goose. The experts are clear that they do not expect this to have a major impact on the gas price.”
The UK Onshore Operators Group (UKOOG), which also represents other onshore oil and gas producers, is aiming to win over public opinion about the shale gas industry, in particular by countering claims that the process of fracking poses an environmental menace.
The shale gas industry is gearing up for a year of intense activity after the Government lifted an 18-month moratorium on fracking in December. The ban was imposed in May 2011 after Cuadrilla Resources, the explorer backed by Lord Browne of Madingley, the former chief executive of BP, set off dozens of earth tremors when it began fracking on sites near Blackpool. The company intends to resume fracking this summer to find out more about the size and commercial potential of its reserves.
Other explorers sitting on vast shale gas deposits will also apply for fracking licences soon. Government officials are preparing to hold an onshore oil and gas licensing round this year which could result in more parts of the UK being opened up for shale exploration.
Fracking involves blasting large amounts of water and chemicals at high pressure into rock to release gas. New horizontal drilling techniques have been perfected in recent years to tap previously unreachable seams of gas and oil in the shale rock.
But environmentalists fear that the technique will pollute aquifers used for drinking water, particularly if seismic activity damages the well and causes the toxic fluids inside to leak. There are also concerns that larger tremors could damage buildings and bridges.
The shale gas revolution in the United States has pushed down energy bills, slashing costs for manufacturers who are now able to compete with rivals in China and undercut those in Britain. Some politicians in this country are eager to try to replicate the success of the US or at least to reduce the need for costly imports.
But the issue has fuelled splits over green energy policy in the coalition, with the Chancellor George Osborne hoping that cheap domesticallyproduced shale gas can power a new fleet of gas plants and reduce the need for heavily subsidised low carbon nuclear reactors and wind farms.
Mr Davey admitted that there are “people in the Government” — though not the Chancellor, he stressed — who think “if only we allowed shale gas to rip, which we are doing, if only we didn’t have carbon budgets, the price of gas would go down and energy would be cheaper”.
David Wighton, Business, page 45
Britain could have enough shale gas to heat every home for 1,500 years, according to new estimates that suggest reserves are 200 times greater than experts previously believed. The British Geological Survey is understood to have increased dramatically its official estimate of the amount of shale gas to between 1,300 trillion and 1,700 trillion cubic feet, dwarfing its previous estimate of 5.3 trillion cubic feet.
According to industry sources, the revised estimates will be published by the Government next month, fuelling hopes that new “fracking” techniques to capture trapped resources will result in cheaper energy bills.
It is thought that it will be technically possible to recover up to a fifth of this gas, making Britain’s shale rocks potentially as bountiful as those in the US. Experts stressed that it was still much too early to say how much of the gas it would be economic to get out of the ground to heat homes and help to generate electricity.
In an interview with The Times today, Ed Davey, the Energy and Climate Change Secretary, tries to downplay hopes of a shale gas glut in the UK pushing down household heating bills, which are at record highs. “It is not the golden goose. The experts are clear that they do not expect this to have a major impact on the gas price.”
The UK Onshore Operators Group (UKOOG), which also represents other onshore oil and gas producers, is aiming to win over public opinion about the shale gas industry, in particular by countering claims that the process of fracking poses an environmental menace.
The shale gas industry is gearing up for a year of intense activity after the Government lifted an 18-month moratorium on fracking in December. The ban was imposed in May 2011 after Cuadrilla Resources, the explorer backed by Lord Browne of Madingley, the former chief executive of BP, set off dozens of earth tremors when it began fracking on sites near Blackpool. The company intends to resume fracking this summer to find out more about the size and commercial potential of its reserves.
Other explorers sitting on vast shale gas deposits will also apply for fracking licences soon. Government officials are preparing to hold an onshore oil and gas licensing round this year which could result in more parts of the UK being opened up for shale exploration.
Fracking involves blasting large amounts of water and chemicals at high pressure into rock to release gas. New horizontal drilling techniques have been perfected in recent years to tap previously unreachable seams of gas and oil in the shale rock.
But environmentalists fear that the technique will pollute aquifers used for drinking water, particularly if seismic activity damages the well and causes the toxic fluids inside to leak. There are also concerns that larger tremors could damage buildings and bridges.
The shale gas revolution in the United States has pushed down energy bills, slashing costs for manufacturers who are now able to compete with rivals in China and undercut those in Britain. Some politicians in this country are eager to try to replicate the success of the US or at least to reduce the need for costly imports.
But the issue has fuelled splits over green energy policy in the coalition, with the Chancellor George Osborne hoping that cheap domesticallyproduced shale gas can power a new fleet of gas plants and reduce the need for heavily subsidised low carbon nuclear reactors and wind farms.
Mr Davey admitted that there are “people in the Government” — though not the Chancellor, he stressed — who think “if only we allowed shale gas to rip, which we are doing, if only we didn’t have carbon budgets, the price of gas would go down and energy would be cheaper”.
David Wighton, Business, page 45
RLD
http://minesite.com/news/richland-r...garding-a-potential-joint-venture-at-merelani
February 11, 2013
Richland Resources Continues To Negotiate With The Tanzanian Government Regarding A Potential Joint Venture At Merelani
By Alastair Ford
Shares in Richland Resources dropped by just over seven per cent to 4.75p after the company put out fourth quarter production results which detailed the financial impact of a recent robbery from a storage facility at its tanzanite mine in Tanzania.
Fourth quarter sales came in at US$3.9 million, well down on the US$5.9 million achieved in the fourth quarter of 2011.
However, the robbery deprived the top line of an estimated US$1.46 million, meaning that the drop from the 2011 number was a somewhat more modest US$540,000.
That’s just about wearable in an economy where consumers continue to hold back on discretionary spending on luxury items like tanzanite, although still 20 per cent below what was forecast by house broker RFC Ambrian.
In fact, at 795,612 carats, production from the Merelani tanzanite mine in the fourth quarter of 2012 actually outstripped the corresponding number for 2011. Back then, Merelani only produced 554,060 carats. Partly, that increase came as a result of the company mining higher grade material. According to commentary from Ambrian, illegal mining by artisans has closed off certain sections of Meralani in the immediate term, and Richland has compensated for the lower tonnages by mining into higher grade areas.
Chief executive Bernard Olivier is one of the world’s leading experts on tanzanite geology, so making the switch wouldn’t have been too troubling from a technical point of view. But Ambrian points out that previous years have seen considerable underground development in the sinking of new and deeper shafts.
And although Richland says it's now receiving a greater level of assistance from the Tanzanian government as regards illegal miners, it’s unclear how much new development took place during 2012. All told, 2012 was, as Ambrian notes, a “tumultuous” year for the company.
With weaker tanzanite prices as backdrop, the company also had to contend with the presence of the illegal miners, the robbery, a royalty dispute with the Tanzanian government, and more recently the news that the Tanzanian government is likely to participate in Merelani in some form of joint venture.
That all creates a lot of uncertainty, and in that light it’s perhaps not surprising that the shares have fallen sharply over the past 12 months. Back in February 2012 Richland shares were changing hands at 17p.
Today, RFC Ambrian’s 7.7p price target looks achievable, but only if certain “value-driving” events take place as anticipated.
Principal among these is the arrival of the Tanzanian government as a potential partner. Problems with illegal mining are not new at Merelani – security was tight back when Minesite visited the project in 2005, for that very reason.
In the past though, the government has had some sympathy with the artisans, partly because each artisan has a vote and Richland doesn’t, but also because it has a strong desire to ensure that no one entity controls the global supply of tanzanite.
To date there is only one known deposit of tanzanite in the world, and even allowing for the deprivations of illegal mining, and the encroachments of royalty-hungry government agencies, Richland still retains a commanding position over it.
But if the government were to become the company’s official joint venture partner, the likelihood is that some of the issues Richland has faced would become easier to resolve. First off, says RFC Ambrian, the sizeable black market in tanzanite stones might come in for more rigorous regulation, as the government sought to protect its own interest.
That would mitigate some of the criminality in the tanzanite space, which would be useful. But perhaps more important it could also cause an increase in the tanzanite price, by properly regulating and restricting supply.
Another likely result of a direct government participation in Merelani is that the proposed retroactive royalty payment might turn out to be less onerous than might be the case otherwise.
So news on negotiations with the government will be crucial in the weeks and months ahead, and will be the main driver for share price growth.
Having said that, Richland does have other irons in the fire. Development of a tsavorite deposit in the neighbourhood of Merelani has long been under consideration, and remains so. More immediately, the company has recently made noises regarding the reactivation of the old graphite operations at Merelani.
The thinking behind this is pretty straightforward. Given the recent resurgence in graphite prices, it makes sense to pick up the graphite baton at Merelani that was laid down when the switch to focussing on tanzanite was made more than ten years ago.
Given that Merelani is a former producer, it ought not to cost too much to get a graphite operation back up and running, and more detailed studies are currently underway. These should be complete by the end of the first half of this year, at which point they will be presented to the third parties that the company is already in discussions with regarding development.
That should provide for further positive newsflow, and if the discussions end favourable will add a significant string to Richland's bow. But for now the tanzanite remains the main event. Watch this space for further developments
http://minesite.com/news/richland-r...garding-a-potential-joint-venture-at-merelani
February 11, 2013
Richland Resources Continues To Negotiate With The Tanzanian Government Regarding A Potential Joint Venture At Merelani
By Alastair Ford
Shares in Richland Resources dropped by just over seven per cent to 4.75p after the company put out fourth quarter production results which detailed the financial impact of a recent robbery from a storage facility at its tanzanite mine in Tanzania.
Fourth quarter sales came in at US$3.9 million, well down on the US$5.9 million achieved in the fourth quarter of 2011.
However, the robbery deprived the top line of an estimated US$1.46 million, meaning that the drop from the 2011 number was a somewhat more modest US$540,000.
That’s just about wearable in an economy where consumers continue to hold back on discretionary spending on luxury items like tanzanite, although still 20 per cent below what was forecast by house broker RFC Ambrian.
In fact, at 795,612 carats, production from the Merelani tanzanite mine in the fourth quarter of 2012 actually outstripped the corresponding number for 2011. Back then, Merelani only produced 554,060 carats. Partly, that increase came as a result of the company mining higher grade material. According to commentary from Ambrian, illegal mining by artisans has closed off certain sections of Meralani in the immediate term, and Richland has compensated for the lower tonnages by mining into higher grade areas.
Chief executive Bernard Olivier is one of the world’s leading experts on tanzanite geology, so making the switch wouldn’t have been too troubling from a technical point of view. But Ambrian points out that previous years have seen considerable underground development in the sinking of new and deeper shafts.
And although Richland says it's now receiving a greater level of assistance from the Tanzanian government as regards illegal miners, it’s unclear how much new development took place during 2012. All told, 2012 was, as Ambrian notes, a “tumultuous” year for the company.
With weaker tanzanite prices as backdrop, the company also had to contend with the presence of the illegal miners, the robbery, a royalty dispute with the Tanzanian government, and more recently the news that the Tanzanian government is likely to participate in Merelani in some form of joint venture.
That all creates a lot of uncertainty, and in that light it’s perhaps not surprising that the shares have fallen sharply over the past 12 months. Back in February 2012 Richland shares were changing hands at 17p.
Today, RFC Ambrian’s 7.7p price target looks achievable, but only if certain “value-driving” events take place as anticipated.
Principal among these is the arrival of the Tanzanian government as a potential partner. Problems with illegal mining are not new at Merelani – security was tight back when Minesite visited the project in 2005, for that very reason.
In the past though, the government has had some sympathy with the artisans, partly because each artisan has a vote and Richland doesn’t, but also because it has a strong desire to ensure that no one entity controls the global supply of tanzanite.
To date there is only one known deposit of tanzanite in the world, and even allowing for the deprivations of illegal mining, and the encroachments of royalty-hungry government agencies, Richland still retains a commanding position over it.
But if the government were to become the company’s official joint venture partner, the likelihood is that some of the issues Richland has faced would become easier to resolve. First off, says RFC Ambrian, the sizeable black market in tanzanite stones might come in for more rigorous regulation, as the government sought to protect its own interest.
That would mitigate some of the criminality in the tanzanite space, which would be useful. But perhaps more important it could also cause an increase in the tanzanite price, by properly regulating and restricting supply.
Another likely result of a direct government participation in Merelani is that the proposed retroactive royalty payment might turn out to be less onerous than might be the case otherwise.
So news on negotiations with the government will be crucial in the weeks and months ahead, and will be the main driver for share price growth.
Having said that, Richland does have other irons in the fire. Development of a tsavorite deposit in the neighbourhood of Merelani has long been under consideration, and remains so. More immediately, the company has recently made noises regarding the reactivation of the old graphite operations at Merelani.
The thinking behind this is pretty straightforward. Given the recent resurgence in graphite prices, it makes sense to pick up the graphite baton at Merelani that was laid down when the switch to focussing on tanzanite was made more than ten years ago.
Given that Merelani is a former producer, it ought not to cost too much to get a graphite operation back up and running, and more detailed studies are currently underway. These should be complete by the end of the first half of this year, at which point they will be presented to the third parties that the company is already in discussions with regarding development.
That should provide for further positive newsflow, and if the discussions end favourable will add a significant string to Richland's bow. But for now the tanzanite remains the main event. Watch this space for further developments
MATD
http://oilbarrel.com/news/conferenc...il-gas-seeks-partners-for-celtic-sea-campaign
It's fair to say shareholders in Petro Matad have had a rather torrid time over the past year but Ridvan Karpuz, the new exploration director, came to draw a line under past disappointments, introducing delegates to “new Petro Matad”. He gave a brief recap of the story so far – the 2008 IPO on AIM, the three 100 per cent blocks in little-explored Mongolia, the high hopes of the first well on the Davsan Tolgoi structure on Block XX in 2010 and the run of eleven wells, which found some hydrocarbons but no commercial flows, until drilling was finally suspended in May 2012. Later that year the management and Board was restructured and a new exploration strategy was put in place. “Two Thousand and twelve was a very important year for us, a year of consolidation,” said Karpuz, who joined in August having previously worked for from Austrian oil and gas company OMV.
He threw further light on the disappointing drilling campaign, of which so much was hoped but so little achieved. “The 11 wells were aiming at just one single structure, which was less than one per cent of our exploration area,” said Karpuz. “We drilled maybe the same hole eleven times. The structure needed to be drilled but not with eleven wells, maybe just with three.”
His frustration is obvious as the money expended on Davson Tolgoi would be so useful now that the company is taking a back to basics approach to exploration. “Our new strategy is focused on the main kitchen area. Davson Tolgoi was outside the main kitchen areas so the source rock was not mature.”
The company holds 100 per cent of three blocks: Block XX near the Chinese border, which was home to the drilling campaign and lies near producing fields in the PetroChina-operated blocks XIX and XXI , and Blocks IV and V, which cover a huge swathe of undrilled territory in the middle of Mongolia and where Petro Matad has acquired the first ever seismic. The company has taken heart by studying analogue basins in China, where there are many discoveries and some giant fields. Indeed, based on the work that is still underway, the company reckons it has identified a resource potential of 3.8 billion barrels of oil in place across eight leads in Blocks IV and V with another 3.4 billion barrels across 18 leads on Block XX.
“We need to derisk the leads and mature them to drillable prospects in 2014 and 2015,” said Karpuz.
The forward plan is ambitious: this year involves 2D seismic on Blocks IV and V, moving into a 2D and 3D seismic acquisition on Block XX in 2014 plus four basin-opening wildcats in Blocks IV and V. In the event of a discovery, this would trigger 3D seismic on Blocks IV and V in 2015 as well as two exploration wells on Block XX.
To fund this, the AIM-quoted company plans to bring in industry partners and Macquarie is leading the farm-out process, with the data room now open. This will be a key milestone for the company, a signal of how the industry values this frontier project and the trigger to accelerate the work rate across these remote lands. There is certainly oil in Mongolia: the PetroChina operation is producing around 10,000 barrels per day, with the crude trucked across the border into energy-hungry China. This production has been achieved by the Chinese company sinking hundreds of simple vertical wells, with the producers pumping between 100 and 200 bpd. It isn't a sophisticated operation and only works because the Chinese company has the rig access and cash to drill at this rate. A more sophisticated approach could deliver a higher yield per well and Karpuz noted that last year the first horizontal was drilled here. Mongolia may not yet have made much of an impression on the international oil industry but it is only just getting started. The newlook Petro Matad hopes to play its part.
Click here to see the Petro Matad presentation
http://oilbarrel.com/news/conferenc...il-gas-seeks-partners-for-celtic-sea-campaign
It's fair to say shareholders in Petro Matad have had a rather torrid time over the past year but Ridvan Karpuz, the new exploration director, came to draw a line under past disappointments, introducing delegates to “new Petro Matad”. He gave a brief recap of the story so far – the 2008 IPO on AIM, the three 100 per cent blocks in little-explored Mongolia, the high hopes of the first well on the Davsan Tolgoi structure on Block XX in 2010 and the run of eleven wells, which found some hydrocarbons but no commercial flows, until drilling was finally suspended in May 2012. Later that year the management and Board was restructured and a new exploration strategy was put in place. “Two Thousand and twelve was a very important year for us, a year of consolidation,” said Karpuz, who joined in August having previously worked for from Austrian oil and gas company OMV.
He threw further light on the disappointing drilling campaign, of which so much was hoped but so little achieved. “The 11 wells were aiming at just one single structure, which was less than one per cent of our exploration area,” said Karpuz. “We drilled maybe the same hole eleven times. The structure needed to be drilled but not with eleven wells, maybe just with three.”
His frustration is obvious as the money expended on Davson Tolgoi would be so useful now that the company is taking a back to basics approach to exploration. “Our new strategy is focused on the main kitchen area. Davson Tolgoi was outside the main kitchen areas so the source rock was not mature.”
The company holds 100 per cent of three blocks: Block XX near the Chinese border, which was home to the drilling campaign and lies near producing fields in the PetroChina-operated blocks XIX and XXI , and Blocks IV and V, which cover a huge swathe of undrilled territory in the middle of Mongolia and where Petro Matad has acquired the first ever seismic. The company has taken heart by studying analogue basins in China, where there are many discoveries and some giant fields. Indeed, based on the work that is still underway, the company reckons it has identified a resource potential of 3.8 billion barrels of oil in place across eight leads in Blocks IV and V with another 3.4 billion barrels across 18 leads on Block XX.
“We need to derisk the leads and mature them to drillable prospects in 2014 and 2015,” said Karpuz.
The forward plan is ambitious: this year involves 2D seismic on Blocks IV and V, moving into a 2D and 3D seismic acquisition on Block XX in 2014 plus four basin-opening wildcats in Blocks IV and V. In the event of a discovery, this would trigger 3D seismic on Blocks IV and V in 2015 as well as two exploration wells on Block XX.
To fund this, the AIM-quoted company plans to bring in industry partners and Macquarie is leading the farm-out process, with the data room now open. This will be a key milestone for the company, a signal of how the industry values this frontier project and the trigger to accelerate the work rate across these remote lands. There is certainly oil in Mongolia: the PetroChina operation is producing around 10,000 barrels per day, with the crude trucked across the border into energy-hungry China. This production has been achieved by the Chinese company sinking hundreds of simple vertical wells, with the producers pumping between 100 and 200 bpd. It isn't a sophisticated operation and only works because the Chinese company has the rig access and cash to drill at this rate. A more sophisticated approach could deliver a higher yield per well and Karpuz noted that last year the first horizontal was drilled here. Mongolia may not yet have made much of an impression on the international oil industry but it is only just getting started. The newlook Petro Matad hopes to play its part.
Click here to see the Petro Matad presentation
PVCS -
Seeing the Light:
I am currently researching my 2013 Bargain Shares portfolio, which will be published in early February. Not only does this involve screening the whole of the London market for hidden gems where the value in a company's assets is not being adequately reflected in the valuation investors are attributing to its equity, but it also involves a fair degree of stockpicking on my part, too.
That's because many companies appear lowly rated for a very good reason and realistically also lack a catalyst to change the apparent undervaluation. In fact, every year I rip through the annual report and accounts, trading statements and broker notes on around 50 companies during a three-week period at this time of year while researching my annual Bargain Shares portfolio. Having gone through this lengthy process, I then whittle this number down to 10 stocks, which must not only offer great value but importantly have a realistic chance of re-rating over the following 12 months.
This process involves a great deal of work on my part, but this balance sheet approach to investing has been well worth doing and has undoubtedly stood the test of time. In fact, over the past decade, an investor would have generated an average annual return of 16.8 per cent by buying each portfolio and subsequently reinvesting the proceeds into the next portfolio the following year. To put that into perspective, an investment of £10,000 in February 2003 would now be worth over £47,000, which compares rather favourably with the same investment in the FTSE All-Share which would now be worth £26,411 including the reinvestment of dividends. In other words, my Bargain Shares portfolio have generated a return double the 8.4 per cent on the benchmark index over a 10-year period that has covered two bull markets and one savage bear market.
That's not to say that my Bargain Shares portfolios are sure-fire winners every year. No investment technique can ever guarantee that and I have had two bad years in the past decade: in 2008 when the stock market crashed and, in 2011, when heightened risk aversion meant small caps were largely shunned again by investors that year. But if you take a long-term view when it comes to investing in equities, then the rewards can be significant from following this particular investment strategy, even after factoring in those two down years. Moreover, there is always scope for share prices to recover after a bad year, which is why I am revisiting the investment case of solar-wafer manufacturer PV Crystalox Solar (PVCS: 12.15p), a company that proved an unmitigated disaster in my 2011 portfolio.
The problem facing the company, and one which I underestimated when I advised buying the shares two years ago, has been savage price cutting by Asian rivals resulting from both overcapacity in the industry and oversupply, primarily from China. In turn, this has led to a 77 per cent plunge in spot wafer prices since April 2011 - taking them way below industry production costs - which has forced PV Crystalox to take some dramatic action itself. In fact, following a strategic review, the company has discontinued its polysilicon production facility in Bitterfeld, Germany to cut cash losses there of €9m a year; and substantially cut production at its UK ingot and German wafer operations. These actions will mean large job losses both in the UK and in Germany, but it also means that the cost base of the ongoing operations will be reduced to enable the business to hopefully be cash neutral in 2013 as the company adopts a cash preservation strategy.
That's important because, at the end of June, PV Crystalox was sitting on €122.3m (£102m) of net cash in the bank - more than double its own market value of £50.5m and representing a large chunk of its net assets of €192m (£160m). The company also has other substantial assets including plant and equipment valued at €58m and inventories of €46.6m. True, we can expect some significant asset writedowns when PV Crystallox next reports full-year results at the end of March, but even taking these charges into consideration (as well as the losses incurred in the second half of 2012), there is scope for share price upside if the company does manage to turn cash-neutral this year.
In fact, we don't have long to wait for a share price catalyst as management has already said that it will make an announcement in the second quarter regarding a return of cash to shareholders. Analyst Andrew Shepherd-Barron at broking house Peel Hunt has placed a liquidation value of £53.8m on the company, or 13p a share - 7 per cent above the current offer price of 12.15p in the market (correct at 9am on 21 January 2013). However, that could prove conservative in my view and the risk still looks weighted to the upside given that the board is committed to returning cash to shareholders. Not for widows or orphans, but PV Crystalox's shares rate a highly speculative trading buy on a three- to four-month basis and I have a target price of 16p a share which if hit would provide us with 30 per cent upside.
Seeing the Light:
I am currently researching my 2013 Bargain Shares portfolio, which will be published in early February. Not only does this involve screening the whole of the London market for hidden gems where the value in a company's assets is not being adequately reflected in the valuation investors are attributing to its equity, but it also involves a fair degree of stockpicking on my part, too.
That's because many companies appear lowly rated for a very good reason and realistically also lack a catalyst to change the apparent undervaluation. In fact, every year I rip through the annual report and accounts, trading statements and broker notes on around 50 companies during a three-week period at this time of year while researching my annual Bargain Shares portfolio. Having gone through this lengthy process, I then whittle this number down to 10 stocks, which must not only offer great value but importantly have a realistic chance of re-rating over the following 12 months.
This process involves a great deal of work on my part, but this balance sheet approach to investing has been well worth doing and has undoubtedly stood the test of time. In fact, over the past decade, an investor would have generated an average annual return of 16.8 per cent by buying each portfolio and subsequently reinvesting the proceeds into the next portfolio the following year. To put that into perspective, an investment of £10,000 in February 2003 would now be worth over £47,000, which compares rather favourably with the same investment in the FTSE All-Share which would now be worth £26,411 including the reinvestment of dividends. In other words, my Bargain Shares portfolio have generated a return double the 8.4 per cent on the benchmark index over a 10-year period that has covered two bull markets and one savage bear market.
That's not to say that my Bargain Shares portfolios are sure-fire winners every year. No investment technique can ever guarantee that and I have had two bad years in the past decade: in 2008 when the stock market crashed and, in 2011, when heightened risk aversion meant small caps were largely shunned again by investors that year. But if you take a long-term view when it comes to investing in equities, then the rewards can be significant from following this particular investment strategy, even after factoring in those two down years. Moreover, there is always scope for share prices to recover after a bad year, which is why I am revisiting the investment case of solar-wafer manufacturer PV Crystalox Solar (PVCS: 12.15p), a company that proved an unmitigated disaster in my 2011 portfolio.
The problem facing the company, and one which I underestimated when I advised buying the shares two years ago, has been savage price cutting by Asian rivals resulting from both overcapacity in the industry and oversupply, primarily from China. In turn, this has led to a 77 per cent plunge in spot wafer prices since April 2011 - taking them way below industry production costs - which has forced PV Crystalox to take some dramatic action itself. In fact, following a strategic review, the company has discontinued its polysilicon production facility in Bitterfeld, Germany to cut cash losses there of €9m a year; and substantially cut production at its UK ingot and German wafer operations. These actions will mean large job losses both in the UK and in Germany, but it also means that the cost base of the ongoing operations will be reduced to enable the business to hopefully be cash neutral in 2013 as the company adopts a cash preservation strategy.
That's important because, at the end of June, PV Crystalox was sitting on €122.3m (£102m) of net cash in the bank - more than double its own market value of £50.5m and representing a large chunk of its net assets of €192m (£160m). The company also has other substantial assets including plant and equipment valued at €58m and inventories of €46.6m. True, we can expect some significant asset writedowns when PV Crystallox next reports full-year results at the end of March, but even taking these charges into consideration (as well as the losses incurred in the second half of 2012), there is scope for share price upside if the company does manage to turn cash-neutral this year.
In fact, we don't have long to wait for a share price catalyst as management has already said that it will make an announcement in the second quarter regarding a return of cash to shareholders. Analyst Andrew Shepherd-Barron at broking house Peel Hunt has placed a liquidation value of £53.8m on the company, or 13p a share - 7 per cent above the current offer price of 12.15p in the market (correct at 9am on 21 January 2013). However, that could prove conservative in my view and the risk still looks weighted to the upside given that the board is committed to returning cash to shareholders. Not for widows or orphans, but PV Crystalox's shares rate a highly speculative trading buy on a three- to four-month basis and I have a target price of 16p a share which if hit would provide us with 30 per cent upside.
Onetwentie
Debutant
- Joined
- Nov 29, 2012
- Runs
- 66
TYM RNS out:
"Tonnage-Grade Estimate - MB Fluorspar Project, Nevada USA
*
Tertiary Minerals plc, the AIM traded company building a strategic position in the fluorspar sector, is pleased to advise that independent consultant Wardell Armstrong International Ltd (WAI) has reported its Tonnage-Grade Estimate for the Company's MB Fluorspar Project in Nevada, USA, and classified this as an Exploration Target under the 1JORC Code (2004).
*
Highlights:
*
·**** Tonnage-grade range estimated at 85-105 million tonnes grading 9-11% fluorspar (CaF2) at 8% CaF2 cut-off.
*
·**** Exploration Target is part of a larger mineralised system estimated at 395-615 million tonnes grading 5-7% fluorspar at 2% CaF2 cut-off.
*
·**** WAI recommends staged drilling programme to upgrade Exploration Target to JORC compliant Mineral Resource.
*
WAI has evaluated the historic results from 108 drill holes completed by various companies between 1960 and 1984, details of which were reported in the Company's announcement of 29 November 2012. The estimate suggests potential for definition of at least 8 million tonnes of contained fluorspar which is double the combined amount of fluorspar estimated for the Company's Minerals Resource inventory at its more advanced Scandinavian fluorspar projects, at Storuman (Sweden) and Lassedalen (Norway).
*
Commenting today, Executive Chairman Patrick Cheetham said:*"We are delighted to confirm the world class potential of the MB Project. The Directors believe that this is the first time the historical drilling data has been brought together into a comprehensive tonnage-grade estimate using rigorous estimation methods.* The mineralised system is very large. It is open at depth and laterally over much of the drill area and most of the drilling is shallow. There is considerable potential to increase the size of the economically interesting mineralisation and in particular the higher grade sections which will be the focus of our initial drill programmes."
Anyone buying any more?
"Tonnage-Grade Estimate - MB Fluorspar Project, Nevada USA
*
Tertiary Minerals plc, the AIM traded company building a strategic position in the fluorspar sector, is pleased to advise that independent consultant Wardell Armstrong International Ltd (WAI) has reported its Tonnage-Grade Estimate for the Company's MB Fluorspar Project in Nevada, USA, and classified this as an Exploration Target under the 1JORC Code (2004).
*
Highlights:
*
·**** Tonnage-grade range estimated at 85-105 million tonnes grading 9-11% fluorspar (CaF2) at 8% CaF2 cut-off.
*
·**** Exploration Target is part of a larger mineralised system estimated at 395-615 million tonnes grading 5-7% fluorspar at 2% CaF2 cut-off.
*
·**** WAI recommends staged drilling programme to upgrade Exploration Target to JORC compliant Mineral Resource.
*
WAI has evaluated the historic results from 108 drill holes completed by various companies between 1960 and 1984, details of which were reported in the Company's announcement of 29 November 2012. The estimate suggests potential for definition of at least 8 million tonnes of contained fluorspar which is double the combined amount of fluorspar estimated for the Company's Minerals Resource inventory at its more advanced Scandinavian fluorspar projects, at Storuman (Sweden) and Lassedalen (Norway).
*
Commenting today, Executive Chairman Patrick Cheetham said:*"We are delighted to confirm the world class potential of the MB Project. The Directors believe that this is the first time the historical drilling data has been brought together into a comprehensive tonnage-grade estimate using rigorous estimation methods.* The mineralised system is very large. It is open at depth and laterally over much of the drill area and most of the drilling is shallow. There is considerable potential to increase the size of the economically interesting mineralisation and in particular the higher grade sections which will be the focus of our initial drill programmes."
Anyone buying any more?
Volume breakout ?
Previous statement : January 16th
"The Board of IRG wishes to announce that it is considering a range of strategic alternatives to enhance shareholder value which may include farm outs, the sale of assets, and the merger or sale of the Company."
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Eagle_Eye
ODI Debutant
- Joined
- Jan 11, 2010
- Runs
- 9,954
PLMO - what are they getting involved in?
Friend of Lenigas a Mr Strang is the new guy. Cash shell valued at 0.8m but with about 1.4m cash I think.
Strangs other RTO vehicle is 3DR which is valued at 3m but little cash.
I think intention for PLMO is an African Oil and Gas play. I would back them with the PLMO vehicle as limited downside and chart just on verge of breaking out with gap up potential from 0.4p to 1p from my reading of the chart.
Strangs other RTO vehicle is 3DR which is valued at 3m but little cash.
I think intention for PLMO is an African Oil and Gas play. I would back them with the PLMO vehicle as limited downside and chart just on verge of breaking out with gap up potential from 0.4p to 1p from my reading of the chart.
Onetwentie
Debutant
- Joined
- Nov 29, 2012
- Runs
- 66
what ever happened with TYM today? to say I was puzzled would be an understatement!!
Good RNS, albeit slightly delayed.. price goes up 20% and then down another 30?
S28 - Good sir, may we have your analysis on the matter? thanks in advance.
Good RNS, albeit slightly delayed.. price goes up 20% and then down another 30?
S28 - Good sir, may we have your analysis on the matter? thanks in advance.
The stock had moved from c.5p to c.15p in the space of a few months. Going into the statement which had been well flagged the stock was technically overbought (RSI above 80 ; MACD 'extended') . You got the impression from PIs moaning about delay that there were guys on T trades so people were playing with borrowed money and once the stock started to retreat clearly panic set in amongst those looking to lock in profit.
Nothing wrong with fundamentals they have an in-situ resource of c. $4.5bn value
Rule of thumb would suggest that is worth 1% as it stands so $45m? compares with current Market Cap of £14m. Add in other major assets and upside optionality and I still think long term 50-100p is possible if they can bring out value.
I would expect some follow up press from likes of Tom Bulford which should allow bit of stabilisation in the price. Also AGM due in a few weeks so might be more news to accompany this or they may flesh out the bones a bit with regards to how they intend to take this forward.
RSI has come back quite rapidly to 50 odd so hopefully it stabilises around here before next push in a few weeks maybe.
Nothing wrong with fundamentals they have an in-situ resource of c. $4.5bn value
Rule of thumb would suggest that is worth 1% as it stands so $45m? compares with current Market Cap of £14m. Add in other major assets and upside optionality and I still think long term 50-100p is possible if they can bring out value.
I would expect some follow up press from likes of Tom Bulford which should allow bit of stabilisation in the price. Also AGM due in a few weeks so might be more news to accompany this or they may flesh out the bones a bit with regards to how they intend to take this forward.
RSI has come back quite rapidly to 50 odd so hopefully it stabilises around here before next push in a few weeks maybe.
PLMO potentially looks toppy on RSI but MACD seems fine historically and it doesn't look too over-followed by PI community so looking to add here especially if it breaks that 200 day MA on volume
You can see in May last year it gapped down from 1p to 0.1p.
Traditionally you'd say Investors might have a '9 month' grieving period after such a fall, that looks like being close to over with 200 day indicating a big change in sentiment coming up. There could be little in way of resistance on way up to 1p because there was so little resistance on way down from 1p to 0.1p
PLMO is interesting. Because the Market Cap is so small it can be influenced by a few trades. i.e. it'll only cost £8k to buy up 1% of the Company !
For those unaware it used to be called Plus Markets (AIM : PMK) which was a failed attempt to set up a third tier stockmarket in the UK as a rival to AIM. Arab investors put in money at the 7p level if I recall correctly.
There is no big secret what they want to do it's on their website http://www.polemos.co.uk
You can see in May last year it gapped down from 1p to 0.1p.
Traditionally you'd say Investors might have a '9 month' grieving period after such a fall, that looks like being close to over with 200 day indicating a big change in sentiment coming up. There could be little in way of resistance on way up to 1p because there was so little resistance on way down from 1p to 0.1p
PLMO is interesting. Because the Market Cap is so small it can be influenced by a few trades. i.e. it'll only cost £8k to buy up 1% of the Company !
For those unaware it used to be called Plus Markets (AIM : PMK) which was a failed attempt to set up a third tier stockmarket in the UK as a rival to AIM. Arab investors put in money at the 7p level if I recall correctly.
There is no big secret what they want to do it's on their website http://www.polemos.co.uk
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Re IGAS/EOG/EDR/INFA etc and Shale Gas
AJ Lucas the Australian listed entity which owns a big chunk of Cuadrilla has updated just now on potentially farming down it's Bowland Basin area to 'large energy companies'.
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20130213/pdf/42czqsbz5l110y.pdf
EOG do have some exposure in their licence areas to the Bowland shale.
AJ Lucas the Australian listed entity which owns a big chunk of Cuadrilla has updated just now on potentially farming down it's Bowland Basin area to 'large energy companies'.
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20130213/pdf/42czqsbz5l110y.pdf
EOG do have some exposure in their licence areas to the Bowland shale.
Onetwentie
Debutant
- Joined
- Nov 29, 2012
- Runs
- 66
Thanks S28 - mucho appreciated. I hope this recovers (actually i'm confident it will now!)
are you still holding this? (I ended up topping up with a silly amount to be fair, so now forced to hold!)
are you still holding this? (I ended up topping up with a silly amount to be fair, so now forced to hold!)
I think I'll be building up my TYM position over time. I am keen to hear what the Saudi niobium/tantalum asset Ghurayah could do if it ever came back. (You'd think the Saudis would like a resources asset which diversifies them away from Oil and Gas. There are some Saudi families who are shareholders so hopefully using their good offices to some effect). I like the fact they have several potential 'Company maker' projects. The Exec Chairman owns a lot of the shares and is careful with the Company's money. Seems like the sort of genuine do-er entrepreneur you want to back he isn't the low quality AIM promoter you normally get on AIM.
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PHE - hardly trades, stupid spread, you've got to be mad to invest in it etc etc
anyway I thought it was just a billionaires plaything (Peter Bond) but it gets a mention as a 'Corporate Investment' in this Linc Energy (ASX : LNC) Presentation released a couple of days ago.
LNC have so many interests which are maybe not factored into LNC share price could LNC look to release value by reversing some asset into PHE ?
http://www.lincenergy.com/php/ic-dlAsxAnnouncement.php?id=465
anyway I thought it was just a billionaires plaything (Peter Bond) but it gets a mention as a 'Corporate Investment' in this Linc Energy (ASX : LNC) Presentation released a couple of days ago.
LNC have so many interests which are maybe not factored into LNC share price could LNC look to release value by reversing some asset into PHE ?
http://www.lincenergy.com/php/ic-dlAsxAnnouncement.php?id=465
RLD
Interesting move. Lets see if it can retake 200 day on a closing basis and sustain for a couple of days.
Very lowly valued for a Company with its Net Assets.
Tanzanian Government becoming a JV partner would be massive and no doubt overnight address any problems they do have operationally and release the huge financial upside.
TYM - up the escalator, down in the elevator !
Let's see what Tom Bulford says in his RHPS weekly e-mail tomorrow. He had a 15p buy in price and 25p target and this RNS has just expanded the potential resource base 3 fold so i'd expect a positive message from him to his subscribers. Having said that he seems to call everything wrong at the moment so would not bet against him saying sell
Let's see what Tom Bulford says in his RHPS weekly e-mail tomorrow. He had a 15p buy in price and 25p target and this RNS has just expanded the potential resource base 3 fold so i'd expect a positive message from him to his subscribers. Having said that he seems to call everything wrong at the moment so would not bet against him saying sell
Eagle_Eye
ODI Debutant
- Joined
- Jan 11, 2010
- Runs
- 9,954
XEL well worth keeping an eye on... could move quickly any day
Complete throwaway punt CRV still stuck in pincer movement between 50 and 200 day MA
Will look again if it breaks out on volume having got inconsequential small initial position.
These are the sort of stocks which are benefitting from dash for trash as risk appetite returns. Never know which one will run though or when.
Maybe need to zero in and wait for news/volume
ANR
Report from their Oilbarrel presentation this week
AIM-quoted Altona, however, has scored something of a coup by netting a cash-rich partner for the Arckaringa CTL project: Chinese energy major CNOOC now holds 51 per cent of the project equity and is spending A$40 million on a bankable feasibility study with an option to increase its stake to 70 per cent by taking on the US$3.5 billion debt financing to build the project. There's a world-class quantity of coal at Arckaringa, some 7.8 billion tonnes of the stuff, of which 1.287 billion tonnes is JORC compliant.
Technical director Peter Fagiano, who in his previous career in the oil business worked on the Kinsale Head and Ballycotton infrastructure that was discussed by the previous presenter Steve Boldy of Lansdowne Oil & Gas, took obvious delight in addressing an oil and gas audience after some years in the coal industry. He pointed out that coal-to-liquids is not a new technology – it has been around since the 1970s. CTL has a role to play today because cheap oil sources are diminishing – exploration costs have gone up 300 per cent since 2000, said Fagiano – and many oil reserves lie in countries with significant political risk.
Importantly, the costs of CTL are increasingly competitive. He pointed out that the Bakken oil shale reserves have breakeven drilling and extraction costs of US$70 to US$80 per barrel while the Arckaringa refined diesel breakeven costs will be around US$55 to US$60 per barrel. Arckaringa mined coal costs are less than US$2 per million Btu, which compares favourably with US shale gas costs of US$3-4 per million Btu. And, on an energy equivalent basis, capex costs are comparable to the LNG plants springing up around the Australian coastline.
What's more, there's a specific market gap that makes Arckaringa compelling. First South Australia has to import all its fuel needs, creating a ready market on the doorstep. And its Chinese partners will be keen to take any excess to meet demand at home.
Phase one of the Altona project envisages a 30,000 barrel per day plant along with a 560 MW export power plant and a carbon capture and storage (CSS) facility. (The combined fuel demand in South Australia and the Northern Territories is 17,000 bpd so there would be surplus for export even just from phase one). Phase two could take this to 45,000 bpd and Fagiano said there were no barriers to expansion because of the feedstock availability.
Inevitably there are concerns about the environmental impact but Fagiano said the plan would emit one quarter of a ton of CO2 per Mwh, which is 50 per cent better than a conventional gas fired power station. The CCS component has the capacity to handle 2,000 years of production and some of the CO2 could be used to produce methanol.
One of the most interesting aspects came during the Q&A session as Fagiano gave his view on the failure of the CCS competition in the UK. It had been, he said, a “total failure” with the Government backing the wrong horse by favouring post-combustion CCS. The Arckaringa solution would use a proven technology and was an opportunity to create a flagship CCS model in line with Australian government policy.
This is certainly an ambitious and highly strategic project, with the capacity to deliver high quality synfuels in partnership with a cash-rich, far-sighted partner. Yet Altona's market cap is just £7 million. Delegates wanted to know what they were missing. “The coal factor puts people off,” he said. “And investors want things to happen quickly but this a very long term project.”
Click here to see the Altona Energy presentation
http://oilbarrel.com/news/conferenc...plans-production-step-change-in-the-north-sea
Report from their Oilbarrel presentation this week
AIM-quoted Altona, however, has scored something of a coup by netting a cash-rich partner for the Arckaringa CTL project: Chinese energy major CNOOC now holds 51 per cent of the project equity and is spending A$40 million on a bankable feasibility study with an option to increase its stake to 70 per cent by taking on the US$3.5 billion debt financing to build the project. There's a world-class quantity of coal at Arckaringa, some 7.8 billion tonnes of the stuff, of which 1.287 billion tonnes is JORC compliant.
Technical director Peter Fagiano, who in his previous career in the oil business worked on the Kinsale Head and Ballycotton infrastructure that was discussed by the previous presenter Steve Boldy of Lansdowne Oil & Gas, took obvious delight in addressing an oil and gas audience after some years in the coal industry. He pointed out that coal-to-liquids is not a new technology – it has been around since the 1970s. CTL has a role to play today because cheap oil sources are diminishing – exploration costs have gone up 300 per cent since 2000, said Fagiano – and many oil reserves lie in countries with significant political risk.
Importantly, the costs of CTL are increasingly competitive. He pointed out that the Bakken oil shale reserves have breakeven drilling and extraction costs of US$70 to US$80 per barrel while the Arckaringa refined diesel breakeven costs will be around US$55 to US$60 per barrel. Arckaringa mined coal costs are less than US$2 per million Btu, which compares favourably with US shale gas costs of US$3-4 per million Btu. And, on an energy equivalent basis, capex costs are comparable to the LNG plants springing up around the Australian coastline.
What's more, there's a specific market gap that makes Arckaringa compelling. First South Australia has to import all its fuel needs, creating a ready market on the doorstep. And its Chinese partners will be keen to take any excess to meet demand at home.
Phase one of the Altona project envisages a 30,000 barrel per day plant along with a 560 MW export power plant and a carbon capture and storage (CSS) facility. (The combined fuel demand in South Australia and the Northern Territories is 17,000 bpd so there would be surplus for export even just from phase one). Phase two could take this to 45,000 bpd and Fagiano said there were no barriers to expansion because of the feedstock availability.
Inevitably there are concerns about the environmental impact but Fagiano said the plan would emit one quarter of a ton of CO2 per Mwh, which is 50 per cent better than a conventional gas fired power station. The CCS component has the capacity to handle 2,000 years of production and some of the CO2 could be used to produce methanol.
One of the most interesting aspects came during the Q&A session as Fagiano gave his view on the failure of the CCS competition in the UK. It had been, he said, a “total failure” with the Government backing the wrong horse by favouring post-combustion CCS. The Arckaringa solution would use a proven technology and was an opportunity to create a flagship CCS model in line with Australian government policy.
This is certainly an ambitious and highly strategic project, with the capacity to deliver high quality synfuels in partnership with a cash-rich, far-sighted partner. Yet Altona's market cap is just £7 million. Delegates wanted to know what they were missing. “The coal factor puts people off,” he said. “And investors want things to happen quickly but this a very long term project.”
Click here to see the Altona Energy presentation
http://oilbarrel.com/news/conferenc...plans-production-step-change-in-the-north-sea
CantEatValue
* 14 Feb'13 - 13:10 - 4795 of 4795* *0*0
So much pessimism in the price right now it's amazing - basically assumes the company's operations have a negative net present value. I think that's an incredibly short sighted view given the business has low fixed costs and management believe they can operate at a cash neutral basis even in the current environment. Buyers now are getting an option on a business for a negative cost - it's brilliant. The capital return will also allow investors to put their money to work in other investments soon leaving the shares as an almost-free option on recovery. I'm banking on traditional supply and demand economics to eventually work their magic in the long run and make this business worth something more than nothing.
* 14 Feb'13 - 13:10 - 4795 of 4795* *0*0
So much pessimism in the price right now it's amazing - basically assumes the company's operations have a negative net present value. I think that's an incredibly short sighted view given the business has low fixed costs and management believe they can operate at a cash neutral basis even in the current environment. Buyers now are getting an option on a business for a negative cost - it's brilliant. The capital return will also allow investors to put their money to work in other investments soon leaving the shares as an almost-free option on recovery. I'm banking on traditional supply and demand economics to eventually work their magic in the long run and make this business worth something more than nothing.
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Onetwentie
Debutant
- Joined
- Nov 29, 2012
- Runs
- 66
I certainly hope so! lol
Any chance you could post Mr Bull***'s enlightenment once you have sight of them S28?
thanks in advance
Eagle_Eye
ODI Debutant
- Joined
- Jan 11, 2010
- Runs
- 9,954
They will raise cash at some point... I will not be surprised to see it settle back at 5-7p.
TYM a placing to Corporate Strategic investors or Institutional shareholders would be welcome in broadening the shareholder base. It would help to not have such short term spikes and drops as TYM has exhibited. I suspect the disarray at Seymour Pierce has probably contributed somewhat to the untidy market.
MWA has had an environmental/health and safety incident at Freda Rebecca. Should be just a short term problem and will no doubt create some negative headlines but could provide decent opportunity to top up now many of their projects are starting to move to cashflow generation and monetisation stages.
Example of BP/Macondo and Kenmare/Moma incidents showed that it's usually a good idea to buy when the headlines are bad as the news should be 'in the price' by then.
KMR fell to c.18p after it's accident where I think a child actually went missing presumed dead in a flooding incident (October 2010). The stock was still 60p within a year.
Example of BP/Macondo and Kenmare/Moma incidents showed that it's usually a good idea to buy when the headlines are bad as the news should be 'in the price' by then.
KMR fell to c.18p after it's accident where I think a child actually went missing presumed dead in a flooding incident (October 2010). The stock was still 60p within a year.
Maybe time for EOG again.
Major article on Shale Gas in Investors Chronicle today not sure if EOG gets a mention.
Major article on Shale Gas in Investors Chronicle today not sure if EOG gets a mention.
EOG
almost done working off its short term technical overbought condition
chart wise i expect potential for a move to 20p (stretch goal 40p?) especially given the amount of news due on shale / Kiernan / farm-outs / potentially Wressle/Holmwood
Tertiary Minerals to present at London Investor Evening
StockMarketWire.com - Patrick Cheetham, Executive Chairman of Tertiary Minerals Plc (TYM) (TYM.L) [LON:TYM] the mineral exploration and development company, will be presenting at the Shares Magazine Investor Evening in London on 28th February 2013. The event offers an unique opportunity not only to hear about the latest plans from some of the most exciting companies in the sector, but also for investors to put questions to senior management of the companies presenting : Northcote Energy [LON:NCT], Ortac Resources[LON
TC], Sound Oil [LON:SOU] and Tertiary Minerals Plc [LON:TYM]. More details at http://www.mrqonline.co.uk/events/
http://www.stockmarketwire.com/arti...ls-to-present-at-London-Investor-Evening.html
http://investorevening28thfebruary2013-eorg.eventbrite.co.uk/#
StockMarketWire.com - Patrick Cheetham, Executive Chairman of Tertiary Minerals Plc (TYM) (TYM.L) [LON:TYM] the mineral exploration and development company, will be presenting at the Shares Magazine Investor Evening in London on 28th February 2013. The event offers an unique opportunity not only to hear about the latest plans from some of the most exciting companies in the sector, but also for investors to put questions to senior management of the companies presenting : Northcote Energy [LON:NCT], Ortac Resources[LON
TC], Sound Oil [LON:SOU] and Tertiary Minerals Plc [LON:TYM]. More details at http://www.mrqonline.co.uk/events/http://www.stockmarketwire.com/arti...ls-to-present-at-London-Investor-Evening.html
http://investorevening28thfebruary2013-eorg.eventbrite.co.uk/#
PLMO - some debate going on as to whether it has broken the 200 day Moving average. I tend to use 'Simple MA' others 'Exponential MA'. Will have to see I guess.
I'd say that given the way the 50 and 200 day Simple MA clearly seem to be impacting trading those are the metrics to key off.
I'd say that given the way the 50 and 200 day Simple MA clearly seem to be impacting trading those are the metrics to key off.
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Shells have been very active in the recent market as part of the 'risk on' trade.
Many zombie companies which otherwise couldn't get funding in the market for their current 'dead' business can utilise their listing to reverse in another Company/asset which might not be able to justify IPO listing costs themselves or not want to go through the long process involved in gaining a traditional listing.
One very successful recent Reverse Takeover was STGR Stratmin Resources which became a Graphite play from being an unsuccessful Silver investment vehicle (WSAG).
http://www.investegate.co.uk/stratmin-global-res-(stgr)/rns/change-of-name/201203200700276511Z/
Valuing shells is an art rather than a science but the following seems to represent a stark contrast.
PLMO and 3DR are new shell companies built on the back of defunct/disposed PMK (Plus Markets) and 3DD (3D Diagnostic Imaging )
PLMO will be looking to invest in Oil and Gas assets in Africa
3DR will be looking to invest in Natural Resources in Europe, Middle East, Africa
Both are run by Don Strang.
PLMO has significantly more cash resources yet 3DR trades at a 800% premium to its net cash whilst PLMO trades at a 25% discount to its net cash.
http://img703.imageshack.us/img703/3037/plmovs3dr.jpg
Many zombie companies which otherwise couldn't get funding in the market for their current 'dead' business can utilise their listing to reverse in another Company/asset which might not be able to justify IPO listing costs themselves or not want to go through the long process involved in gaining a traditional listing.
One very successful recent Reverse Takeover was STGR Stratmin Resources which became a Graphite play from being an unsuccessful Silver investment vehicle (WSAG).
http://www.investegate.co.uk/stratmin-global-res-(stgr)/rns/change-of-name/201203200700276511Z/
Valuing shells is an art rather than a science but the following seems to represent a stark contrast.
PLMO and 3DR are new shell companies built on the back of defunct/disposed PMK (Plus Markets) and 3DD (3D Diagnostic Imaging )
PLMO will be looking to invest in Oil and Gas assets in Africa
3DR will be looking to invest in Natural Resources in Europe, Middle East, Africa
Both are run by Don Strang.
PLMO has significantly more cash resources yet 3DR trades at a 800% premium to its net cash whilst PLMO trades at a 25% discount to its net cash.
http://img703.imageshack.us/img703/3037/plmovs3dr.jpg
XTR (Xtract Energy) has been a pretty awful investment in recent years. But new management in charge and two recent bits of news may mean it's now funded and has some growth potential.
Mkt Cap @ 0.16p is c.£3m
15th February - sale of shares in Equus Mining yielding $980,000 http://www.investegate.co.uk/xtract...-in-equus-mining-limited/201302151203570049Y/
Also last week the Queensland Government ended previous 20 year moratorium on oil shale development. XTR have disposed of their interest in a potential 2 billion barrels of oil shale in return for an equity stake in GOS Global Oil Shale.
http://www.investegate.co.uk/xtract...oil-shale-project-update/201212170700116349T/
Highlights
· Strategic alignment of Xtract's interest in Julia Creek with GOS as an investor and developer for the Julia Creek deposit.
· Xtract to assign its oil shale rights in Julia Creek to GOS in exchange for:
· Strategic equity stake in GOS of 6.0 million shares on signing the Share Purchase Agreement and satisfying all closing commitments, and a further up to 1.5 million shares in GOS in the event of its planned IPO;
· Long term interest in the Julia Creek project through a 1% net smelter royalty; and
· An initial cash payment of AUD$ 50,000 payable on signing the Share Purchase Agreement and prior to GOS' commitment to a full work programme on Julia Creek.
· GOS will carry out a detailed work programme for Julia Creek with key milestone deliverables:
· Mining plan and resource testing;
· Pre feasibility plan for choice of processing approach for Julia Creek;
· Bankable feasibility plan and small scale pilot testing of production.
· GOS to fund all of Julia Creek ongoing holding and development costs
· Xtract to gain a single project risk mitigating exposure to GOS' multi oil shale project development portfolio and access to their leading knowhow in the sector
· Xtract to focus on its core strategy of seeking conventional oil and gas opportunities.
· Xtract has agreed to sell its 70% stake in Xtract Energy (Oil Shale) Morocco S.A. (XOSM) to GOS for an upfront payment of c. AUD$ 35,000 with completion subject to obtaining the consent of the Office National des Hydrocarbures et des Mines (ONHYM) and other requlatory approvals in the Kingdom of Morocco as well as the consent (or buy out) of the other shareholder in XOSM.
· Xtract will provide its full support to GOS and XOSM in seeking the consents required for completion of the sale of Xtract's interest in XOSM.
Commenting on this transaction Peter Moir, CEO of Xtract, stated:
"The disposal of Julia Creek and the sale on Xtract Energy (Oil Shale) Morocco S.A. to GOS will enable Xtract management to concentrate the focus of the Company on conventional oil and gas opportunities.
Mkt Cap @ 0.16p is c.£3m
15th February - sale of shares in Equus Mining yielding $980,000 http://www.investegate.co.uk/xtract...-in-equus-mining-limited/201302151203570049Y/
Also last week the Queensland Government ended previous 20 year moratorium on oil shale development. XTR have disposed of their interest in a potential 2 billion barrels of oil shale in return for an equity stake in GOS Global Oil Shale.
http://www.investegate.co.uk/xtract...oil-shale-project-update/201212170700116349T/
Highlights
· Strategic alignment of Xtract's interest in Julia Creek with GOS as an investor and developer for the Julia Creek deposit.
· Xtract to assign its oil shale rights in Julia Creek to GOS in exchange for:
· Strategic equity stake in GOS of 6.0 million shares on signing the Share Purchase Agreement and satisfying all closing commitments, and a further up to 1.5 million shares in GOS in the event of its planned IPO;
· Long term interest in the Julia Creek project through a 1% net smelter royalty; and
· An initial cash payment of AUD$ 50,000 payable on signing the Share Purchase Agreement and prior to GOS' commitment to a full work programme on Julia Creek.
· GOS will carry out a detailed work programme for Julia Creek with key milestone deliverables:
· Mining plan and resource testing;
· Pre feasibility plan for choice of processing approach for Julia Creek;
· Bankable feasibility plan and small scale pilot testing of production.
· GOS to fund all of Julia Creek ongoing holding and development costs
· Xtract to gain a single project risk mitigating exposure to GOS' multi oil shale project development portfolio and access to their leading knowhow in the sector
· Xtract to focus on its core strategy of seeking conventional oil and gas opportunities.
· Xtract has agreed to sell its 70% stake in Xtract Energy (Oil Shale) Morocco S.A. (XOSM) to GOS for an upfront payment of c. AUD$ 35,000 with completion subject to obtaining the consent of the Office National des Hydrocarbures et des Mines (ONHYM) and other requlatory approvals in the Kingdom of Morocco as well as the consent (or buy out) of the other shareholder in XOSM.
· Xtract will provide its full support to GOS and XOSM in seeking the consents required for completion of the sale of Xtract's interest in XOSM.
Commenting on this transaction Peter Moir, CEO of Xtract, stated:
"The disposal of Julia Creek and the sale on Xtract Energy (Oil Shale) Morocco S.A. to GOS will enable Xtract management to concentrate the focus of the Company on conventional oil and gas opportunities.
Eagle_Eye
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Chevron taking the p1ss, how long can they withhold news from the well in Netherlands?
I think that's a red herring but I know it is the thing which exercises the minds of all the stale bulls who have followed the XTR story too long. XTR didn't have any decent assets anyway and monetising a small offshore gas accumulation was never going to be their forte/company maker even if the well did produce. The value of XTR I think is only as a punt on something with serious upside optionality. An interest in potential 2 billion barrels of oil could be that. Or if they can bring something new into the Company and use it as a RTO vehicle. It makes more sense maybe than using the likes of PLMO/3DD perhaps because it has oil and gas related tax losses ?
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EOG - ""We're encouraged by the stature of the companies that are coming in. Household names, if you like," Europa's chief executive Hugh Mackay told Reuters on Monday."
http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/...opa-gets-big-oil-interest-ireland-partnership
http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/...opa-gets-big-oil-interest-ireland-partnership
XTR - Some of the Australian small oil shale companies like ASX:IRC and ASX:GRV were up quite a bit over last week. IRC actually sold their interest in the oil shale to XTR and retain entitlement to other minerals on the property. IRC is valued at c.$12m. Greenvale has properties in association with QER which is the private company being allowed to proceed on the oil shale development. GRV is valued at c.$9m but in 2006 during last oil spike the shares were 10x higher !
XTR at c.$6m with other interests does start to look pretty cheap. Not sure what is holding it back? It doesn't seem to be reacting well to what sounds like good news. Could be either an overhang in the background or maybe even a placing ?
Global Oil Shale the Company XTR disposed their interest to in exchange for equity is apparently planning some sort of placing soon which should help to put a valuation on that equity interest.
http://www.discussthemarket.com/xtr-stream/
XTR at c.$6m with other interests does start to look pretty cheap. Not sure what is holding it back? It doesn't seem to be reacting well to what sounds like good news. Could be either an overhang in the background or maybe even a placing ?
Global Oil Shale the Company XTR disposed their interest to in exchange for equity is apparently planning some sort of placing soon which should help to put a valuation on that equity interest.
http://www.discussthemarket.com/xtr-stream/
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Nitin Tomer
Tape Ball Star
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- Jul 3, 2012
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- 710
Buy 1000 shares of Berkshire Hathway and live peacefully for the rest of your life 
Nitin Tomer
Tape Ball Star
- Joined
- Jul 3, 2012
- Runs
- 710
You so didn't get the joke...
With all the stories about the lights going out as UK runs out of power in a few months should refocus attention on domestic oil and gas producers and domestic oil and gas infrastructure such as gas storage.
INFA and EOG and shale gas / gas storage etc etc
The long term charts look good for some excitement going forward with recent consolidation after Golden Crosses and above the 200 day MA lines
INFA and EOG and shale gas / gas storage etc etc
The long term charts look good for some excitement going forward with recent consolidation after Golden Crosses and above the 200 day MA lines
Some news today. Bringing in some Malaysian group with expertise in Infrastructure Development in Asia to try to get some traction within Bangladesh. Fair enough every little helps and Malaysians are being linked with financing other major Infrastructure projects in Bangladesh such Padma Bridge and power stations it makes sense to have some joined up thinking in all this. Interestingly there is a time limit on the award so should concentrate minds.
Not happy about the option repricing though. But they only get paid out if shareholders do so can't complain too much.
News came late in the day so not enough volume to break the 50 day MA and challenge 200 day MA but 40p looks decent short term target now. If they can secure Scheme of Development approval the Malaysians and GCM Directors will have earnt their multi-million pound payouts as the share price should be north of 400p
Not happy about the option repricing though. But they only get paid out if shareholders do so can't complain too much.
News came late in the day so not enough volume to break the 50 day MA and challenge 200 day MA but 40p looks decent short term target now. If they can secure Scheme of Development approval the Malaysians and GCM Directors will have earnt their multi-million pound payouts as the share price should be north of 400p
GCM chart looks 'poised', is only really down here because of a seller causing overhang will need serious volume to get through 50 day and 200 day MA but overhang clearing and good fundamental news may be enough to get above 50 day and maybe challenge 200 day.
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XTR - the Global Oil Shale people in which XTR will retain equity do look like serious professional people
http://www.globaloilshale.com/about-us/
http://www.globaloilshale.com/publications-3/
http://www.globaloilshale.com/about-us/
http://www.globaloilshale.com/publications-3/
This report started considering the disconnect between Solo’s current market cap of £13.5mln and the intrinsic value of its 25% stake in the Ruvuma PSA.
A back-of-the-envelope calculation (and a very conservative one at that) might value Solo’s quarter share of the 5.75 tcf of gas at this stage in the game at £125mln. This means that even with the farm-out, Ruvuma should be worth a risk-adjusted £60mln.
And a farm-out alleviates the financial risk of a project that is more a development play than a binary exploration asset.
The current valuation logically suggests it might be cheaper to take Solo out, acquire it, rather than enter farm out talks.
http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/51160/solo-oil-looks-priced-to-go-51160.html
A back-of-the-envelope calculation (and a very conservative one at that) might value Solo’s quarter share of the 5.75 tcf of gas at this stage in the game at £125mln. This means that even with the farm-out, Ruvuma should be worth a risk-adjusted £60mln.
And a farm-out alleviates the financial risk of a project that is more a development play than a binary exploration asset.
The current valuation logically suggests it might be cheaper to take Solo out, acquire it, rather than enter farm out talks.
http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/51160/solo-oil-looks-priced-to-go-51160.html
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