Buying shares?

CPX reminder

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/...-no-laughing-matter-technology-takes-off.html

CAP-XX has a twin-track approach to commercialising its Intellectual property.
The larger opportunities in consumer electronics, mobile telephony and the automotive sector, it will joint venture or license out.
But where the market is smaller, the company will oversee the manufacturing of the product, while maintaining control of the technology at the core.
The plan ultimately is to be for advanced power what Intel is to the computer central processor – the default technology.
Currently CAP-XX’s Thinline product is under evaluation with more than 20 different companies involved in developing machines that talk to one another – part of the so-called Internet of Things.
A further twenty-odd automotive businesses are interested in the technology – some of these collaborations are close to throwing up licensing opportunities.
These and the deal with a tier-1 vehicle components maker to commercialise the truckStart product (it does as the name suggests), should tell investors the next six to 12 months will provide many more catalysts for share price growth.
'What’s held us back in the past is we have been waiting for the technology convergence to happen,' said CEO Kongats.
'We’ve had our technology ready, but others haven’t. That’s all changed and it is having a profound effect on our prospects.'
 
ASA reported results. As I said in lead up they would be historic and not that interesting in and of themselves. The fact the stock went up in 'anticipation' over preceding days was troubling to me and thus with no immediate S&V for the traders there was some scrappy selling today.

However what I wanted to see in terms of positive outlook on their existing operations was there and also some talk about expansionary activities and the strategic insight of the Management.

So looking briefly at historic results

Gold production was 67k oz at C1 cash cost of $943/oz and C3 AISC of $1076/oz. They realised average gold price of $1149/oz over the financial year. Repeat production at current spot prices c.$1330/oz and you are looking at potential cashflow of $28m p.a this year

Nickel production was 6.6kT at C1 cash cost of $6000/t and C3 AISC of $6800/t. Realised price was only $6700/t. With Nickel prices c.20% higher there is potential for cashflow approaching $13mp.a. from the Nickel operations.

One issue of concern people had raised was potential 'high grading' of the mine (i.e. short termist management to take out higher grade resources in short term to detriment of longer term ore grade/production life etc). Management addressed this issue explicitly.

Management also addressed their opinion on the strategic value of their operations :-

"The individual value in use of either of its two operating mines in Zimbabwe is more than the current value of the Group...hope that in time the perception of Asa's true value shall be recognised and that the Group will be able to change market sentiment in due course."

That's quite a robust statement to say in effect either of the two existing mines is worth more than current Market Value of the Group.

Add to that their diversification initiatives which could in turn see monetisation of assets which have previously burnt cash but could now generate cash.

In particular talk of starting operations at the c.3m oz greenfield gold resource in DRC Zani Kodo. That could by itself be worth more than the total market value of the group. so thats 3 individual Company ops which by themselves are worth more than total value of the Group but not being recognised by the market. Only way for Management to change perception is to deliver consistently.

"A good example of this strategy is at Zani Kodo where, in 2016, the Group will implement an affordable gravity-flotation operation where it has 2.9m ounces JORC resources. By using its vast land bank and acquiring a meat processing operation, the Group is making underutilized assets income producing. Both of these new operations should be revenue generating and contributing to profit in the next 12 months."

So overall I'm happy with the results. Company are doing good things at operational level. Exogenous pricing environment looking more favourable. Previously 'inscrutable' Chinese management talking a bit more about how they intend to create value. All quite promising. The current share price really doesn't reflect the upside potential long term. Given Management belief in several potential Company maker divisions my target would be multiples of the current price right now and given my long term bullish view on gold (if not nickel) I expect multiples upon those multiples long term. This is currently a £13m Company which could and should be trading north of £100m in my opinion.
 
ASA reported results. As I said in lead up they would be historic and not that interesting in and of themselves. The fact the stock went up in 'anticipation' over preceding days was troubling to me and thus with no immediate S&V for the traders there was some scrappy selling today.

However what I wanted to see in terms of positive outlook on their existing operations was there and also some talk about expansionary activities and the strategic insight of the Management.

So looking briefly at historic results

Gold production was 67k oz at C1 cash cost of $943/oz and C3 AISC of $1076/oz. They realised average gold price of $1149/oz over the financial year. Repeat production at current spot prices c.$1330/oz and you are looking at potential cashflow of $28m p.a this year

Nickel production was 6.6kT at C1 cash cost of $6000/t and C3 AISC of $6800/t. Realised price was only $6700/t. With Nickel prices c.20% higher there is potential for cashflow approaching $13mp.a. from the Nickel operations.

One issue of concern people had raised was potential 'high grading' of the mine (i.e. short termist management to take out higher grade resources in short term to detriment of longer term ore grade/production life etc). Management addressed this issue explicitly.

Management also addressed their opinion on the strategic value of their operations :-

"The individual value in use of either of its two operating mines in Zimbabwe is more than the current value of the Group...hope that in time the perception of Asa's true value shall be recognised and that the Group will be able to change market sentiment in due course."

That's quite a robust statement to say in effect either of the two existing mines is worth more than current Market Value of the Group.

Add to that their diversification initiatives which could in turn see monetisation of assets which have previously burnt cash but could now generate cash.

In particular talk of starting operations at the c.3m oz greenfield gold resource in DRC Zani Kodo. That could by itself be worth more than the total market value of the group. so thats 3 individual Company ops which by themselves are worth more than total value of the Group but not being recognised by the market. Only way for Management to change perception is to deliver consistently.

"A good example of this strategy is at Zani Kodo where, in 2016, the Group will implement an affordable gravity-flotation operation where it has 2.9m ounces JORC resources. By using its vast land bank and acquiring a meat processing operation, the Group is making underutilized assets income producing. Both of these new operations should be revenue generating and contributing to profit in the next 12 months."

So overall I'm happy with the results. Company are doing good things at operational level. Exogenous pricing environment looking more favourable. Previously 'inscrutable' Chinese management talking a bit more about how they intend to create value. All quite promising. The current share price really doesn't reflect the upside potential long term. Given Management belief in several potential Company maker divisions my target would be multiples of the current price right now and given my long term bullish view on gold (if not nickel) I expect multiples upon those multiples long term. This is currently a £13m Company which could and should be trading north of £100m in my opinion.

A nice write up s28. I was going to post and ask what your views were on today's results. But you have already, succinctly summarised your views. Thanks!
 
GOLD

short term technical decision point coming, i'd expect given the 'working off' of short term overbought condition there should be move up in short-medium term

Kitco%20Gold%201.gif
 
ALO

Alecto's acquisition of the Matala and Dunrobin gold mines was a genuinely transformational transaction. Alecto is now a Zambian focused mine developer with a 760Koz decent grade resource and a 25 year mining lease. Its West African projects are no longer the operational focus and will be progressed by JV partners such as Randgold.

The plan is to build an oxide mining operation with average production of 28Koz per annum over 5 years. Management expects the mine life to double, we believe 250Koz of production over 8 years is a reasonable target, with potential for significantly more. Importantly management plans to fund the mine with minimal new Alecto equity. Mining will be contracted-out, while c$15m of debt should be sufficient to fund the plant and other surface infrastructure.

Our valuation is based on a cashflow model of the 150Koz oxides start-up operation. We have also included G&A costs and a 20% risk factor. We calculate a 0.31p price target and recommend a SPECULATIVE BUY. Read the full report


hTTps://www.beaufortsecurities.com/shp/research.php?vid=333

At 0.09p currently does look due a run soon after big base-ing pattern in 0.06-0.08 range
 
National Inflation Association

Yesterday morning, NIA announced Golden Arrow Resources (TSXV: GRG) at $0.91 as its new #1 silver stock suggestion. GRG finished yesterday up an incredible 21% to $1.10 per share on enormous volume of over 3 million shares - and NIA predicts that $2+ per share is coming very soon!

GRG only has 77 million shares outstanding and a market cap here at $1.10 per share of CAD$84.7 million or USD$64.03 million. GRG's Chinchillas silver project located in the mining-friendly Province of Jujuy, Argentina, contains 155 million measured/indicated silver equivalent ounces! Currently, GRG's Chinchillas silver resource is being valued at an insanely low $0.41 per oz!

Silver Standard Resources (SSRI)'s Pirquitas silver mine is located just 35 km northeast and is currently producing over 10 million oz of silver annually. Unfortunately for SSRI, Pirquitas has a short mine life with only 16.5 million oz of remaining silver reserves. Unless SSRI figures out a way to extend the mine life of Pirquitas, it will need to shut down its 4,000 tpd silver mining operation in late-2017/early-2018.

According to SSRI's CEO, “We’ve looked around regionally to see if there were other options to extend the mine life, but outside of GRG's Chinchillas - there’s nothing!"

Ten months ago, SSRI struck a deal with GRG - committing to invest USD$12.6 million on exploring/evaluating GRG's Chinchillas over the following 18 months. Later this year. SSRI will officially announce if it will move forward with a major joint venture agreement that it has entered into with GRG. The agreement will allow SSRI to combine its Pirquitas silver mine with GRG's Chinchillas - with GRG receiving 25% of the combined project and SSRI receiving the other 75%!

Based on SSRI's current enterprise value of $970 million and NIA's estimate that half of SSRI's enterprise value is for their Pirquitas silver mining operations - it gives Pirquitas a current valuation of $485 million. By SSRI agreeing to give GRG a 25% stake in the combined Pirquitas/Chinchillas silver mining project - it gives GRG's Chinchillas an implied valuation today of USD$161.67 million or CAD$213.59 million, which would value GRG at $2.77 per share!

Remember, based on GRG's measured/indicated Chinchillas silver equivalent resource of 155 million oz - GRG at $2.77 per share will still have an extremely low valuation of only $1.04 per oz!
 
very very interesting for CPX

weeks after Murata expanded their licensing of CPX tech to batteries, they announce deal to buy Sony's Battery business

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-sony-murata-mfg-idUSKCN1080HC

Sony Corp (6758.T) said on Thursday it has agreed to sell a portion of its battery business to Murata Manufacturing Co Ltd (6981.T), as the electronics giant responds to slowing demand for smartphones.

The announcement comes as Sony banks on growth in its games business with the upcoming launch of its virtual reality headset, while it also plans to re-enter the robotics industry a decade after it last abandoned that business.

Sony, in a joint statement, said the agreement involved selling the battery business of its subsidiary Sony Energy Devices Corp, which makes lithium-ion polymer batteries used in smartphones, tablets and digital cameras, and lithium-ion rechargeable batteries.

Murata said it hoped that acquiring Sony's battery operations would give the Japanese company an edge in the communications market, and that it would help the company expand in automotive, healthcare and energy markets.

"Murata intends to position the global battery business as a core operation within its energy business in order to target further business growth and expansion," the company said.
 
Interesting! s28. Clearly, a lot of people have overlooked this development and aren't privy to it. Especially on Twitter as there is no mention of this anywhere. Great find.
 
ASA chart

big.chart

I do hope again this is setting up nicely again for a shoot higher. Their next trading update due mid August should include a few months of the higher gold and nickel prices experienced recently so we might finally see some evidence of cashflow.
 
I brought shares in glencore and they went down hill and had nearly halved in value when I was tempted to buy more but I lost my nerve and didn't go big. Had I done so, I would have nearly doubled my money at the very least but I am still up on my original investment.
 
I brought shares in glencore and they went down hill and had nearly halved in value when I was tempted to buy more but I lost my nerve and didn't go big. Had I done so, I would have nearly doubled my money at the very least but I am still up on my original investment.

Sometimes you just gotta go with that gut feeling you have.
 
I do hope again this is setting up nicely again for a shoot higher. Their next trading update due mid August should include a few months of the higher gold and nickel prices experienced recently so we might finally see some evidence of cashflow.

Hopefully dude
 
MES might be one to watch from here, about to change ticker to SRC and become a cash shell SigmaRoc aiming to make acquisitions in the Construction Materials sector led by a new CEO with background in Strategic Advisory at one of the global majors in the sector LafargeHolcim

http://www.investegate.co.uk/messag...otice-of-general-meeting/201608041104342714G/

Max Vermorken - CEO

Max was most recently a strategic advisor with the world's biggest construction materials group LafargeHolcim. His last job for the company was to manage the hive-down and integration of two large asset portfolios - a mix which included two cement plants and a multitude of down-stream aggregates and construction materials assets - in the context of the global LafargeHolcim merger. Prior to working for LafargeHolcim Max worked with Luxembourg-headquartered Private Equity group Genii were he reported directly to its founding principals. Max holds a PhD in Financial Economics and Bachelor and Master degrees in both Civil Engineering and Economics.
 
SALV

From: Breakthrough Biotech Alert

Subject: “high reward”

This week I am going to sell out of SILENCE THERAPEUTICS (SLN) and add a new, speculative, holding - SALVARX (AIM: SAL).
Your capital is at risk when you invest, never risk more than you can afford to lose.
Seek independent personal advice if necessary.


Monday, 8 August 2016111111111111111111111BBA Issue #223

A "high risk, high reward" play
on the hottest area in biotech


Dear Tom Bulford,
This week I am going to sell out of SILENCE THERAPEUTICS (SLN) and add a new, speculative, holding - SALVARX (AIM: SAL). Before I tell you about the latter let me explain my thinking. So far we have made great returns from some of the larger companies in the portfolio – e.g. LONZA (+177%), PERKINELMER (+114%) and NOVOZYMES (+114%). But where we have ventured into more speculative counters the experience has been, with a few exceptions, disappointing. This does not altogether surprise me and I certainly have not given up hope of companies such as RENEURON and ANGLE, where just one good trial result or deal could transform the share price overnight.

Silence: a good idea, but too soon

I want to make sure that where we are taking a gamble (indicated by the 'High' Risk rating in the portfolio table) that it is at least in a broadly promising area. The biotechnology industry has limited resources. It cannot pursue every promising avenue, but packs form around the most promising and in that category today we have things like cancer immunotherapy, regenerative medicine and non-invasive diagnostics. Small companies in these 'hot' areas are more likely to receive funding and attract the interest of larger partners, which is usually the ultimate aim.


Silence Therapeutics is interested in RNA silencing. In other words it seeks to intervene not at the DNA level of the cell but at the subsequent RNA level. This is a reasonable approach but I do not believe that it is attracting widespread support at present. More specific to Silence its latest drug trial result was disappointing, its R&D head has resigned and the company has fallen out with Quark Pharmaceuticals from which it is claiming a milestone payment of $3m. So Silence has not given us much reason for encouragement over the last year and, since I do not want to lengthen the list of speculations in the portfolio, I am going to sell out of it to make room for SalvaRx.


The hottest area in biotech

One thing we can say quite categorically about SalvaRx is that it operates in a very hot area – cancer immunotherapy. Indeed it is the success of harnessing the power of the immune system that has led SalvaRx to be established in the first place. It is a vehicle for Jim Mellon, a renowned investor who, like me, has homed in upon biotechnology as 'the next big thing'. He is currently the main shareholder in SalvaRx alongside Dr Greg Bailey, a 60 year old American who has long experience of both biotechnology and finance. The purpose of SalvaRx is to invest in promising immunotherapy projects and as these emerge SalvaRx is likely to raise capital and progress from its current size of just £18m.


In fact SalvaRx wants to do more than just invest in promising ventures. It will also provide expertise and hands-on management, led by Dr Ian Walters and Dr Rob Kramer. The former spent seven years at Bristol-Myers Squibb, while the latter was Head of Oncology Research at both Bristol-Myers and Janssen Pharmaceuticals. Crucially they were both closely involved in the development of Ipilimumab and Nivolumab, the two market leading cancer immunotherapies now sold by Bristol-Myers. So they have an outstanding grasp of the science and of the industry and they know the sort of things that will attract the attention of the major players.

This is the nub of the story. As I explained last week cancer immunotherapy drugs work in a variety of ways that helps the body's natural immune system to find and overcome cancer cells. Some drugs, such as those of Bristol Myers, have been impressively effective but only in certain types of cancer and for certain people. For all the headline stories of those whose cancer has vanished, many others have had no or limited benefit. To this there are two responses. One is to develop diagnostic tests, probably based on DNA, that will identify in advance those patients who will benefit. The other is to develop better drugs or, more likely, better combinations of drugs that can attack cancer on more than one level.

As I explained last week many trials are now under way that involve not one but two or even three drugs delivered in combination. When Bristol Myers tested its two drugs, ipilimumab and nivolumab, in combination against melanoma the combination did better than when either of the two drugs was delivered independently, and this form of therapy soon received FDA approval.

When I spoke to SalvaRx's Dr Ian Walters last week he described PD1/PD-L1 drugs (that prevent the cancer cells from fending off the T-cells) as the 'backbone of immunotherapy'. The race is now on to find other drugs that complement this approach, either by increasing the efficacy against cancer or by toning down the impact on healthy cells.

Remember what we are trying to do here. We are trying to identify cancer cells through their surface markers, we are trying to help the cells of the immune system to lock on to the cancer cells and we are trying to give the immune system the power and selectivity to destroy cancer cells but nothing else. So there is no reason why we should not use drug combinations to fight cancer on multiple fronts, and SalvaRx is looking for likely candidates to add to the arsenal, focussing on three criteria:

a) Products that can treat patients who are PD-L1 negative (i.e. whose cancer does not express this protein)

b) Products whose targets are not the T-cells but other players in the drama such as NKT cells, macrophages, myeloid-derived suppressor cells and dendritic cells.

c) Formulations that can deliver drug combinations as a single product, and could thus overcome the very high cost associated with each individual drug.


How SalvaRx is investing

So far SalvaRx has made two investments. The first is a 60% stake in iOx, an Oxford University spin-out, which has developed synthetic lipid compounds that activate a particular class of T-cell called invariant natural killer T-cells (iNKTs). These attack cancer cells while also coordinating the response of the immune system generally. This approach, named IMM60, has removed cancer from mice and the plan is to start a 60 patient human trial (funded by Oxford University) in 2017. This will compare treatment with IMM60 alone, a PD-1 therapy alone, and the two together.


The second investment, made in April of this year, was of $2m in return for a 9.2% interest in Intensity Therapeutics. Its DfuseRxSM formulation delivers proven drug compounds directly into tumour cells. This kills the tumour cells and these dead cells then elicit an adaptive immune response. Again, this has been effective in mice and Intensity plans to treat its first human patient this year.

SalvaRx is very much at the beginning of its journey and is likely to make further investments. However I should say that SalvaRx is more than just an investment company. It has some serious expertise on its Board and its Scientific Advisory Committee and intends to help its target companies advance both in the research and commercial sense. The simple proposition is that, in the words of Dr Walters, 'the field of cancer immunotherapy is growing exponentially' and that in twenty years' time patients are likely to be treated with a variety of drugs, most of which are yet to be discovered. I would like to invest in some of these success stories of the future and frankly the people at SalvaRx have a lot more expertise than I do. I am happy to back their judgement.

This is a very high risk investment and as with MAXCYTE I suggest that you just invest a small amount – perhaps one-third of your normal stake – with a view to upping that if things seem to be progressing. At present SalvaRX has no revenue and it only has two investments, each of which could prove worthless. We know that SalvaRx intends to make further investments or acquisitions but we do not know what these will be. Finally this is a tiny AIM-listed company with a stock market value of just £8.6m, and an even tinier free float that makes the shares very illiquid.

With that attempt to put you off let me repeat the positives. Cancer immunotherapy is, according to Goldman Sachs' Jami Rubin, 'the most exciting development across all of pharma and biotech.'

See last week's issue: The market for cancer immunotherapy drugs is growing at 12.8% per year and is projected to hit $70bn by 2020.

We know that cancer immunotherapy drugs can work. We know that two drugs can be better than one. We know that big pharma companies, in the normal herd-like mentality of big business, do not want to be left out and are willing to pay big bucks for promising compounds. An illustration is Celgene's deal to pay $225bn up front and plenty more down the line in order to participate in the pre-clinical immunotherapy drug candidates of Jounce Therapeutics. So just one deal of that magnitude could dwarf the current value of SalvaRx.

In summary, this is a high risk, high reward play. But SalvaRx is in the right place at the right time – all it needs to do now is identify the right products. With a 100p price target, BUY UP TO 30p
 
HMI - IRR good , not big upfront capex but the NPV looks disappointing given the hype there has been around this stock
 
GUN is new ticker for EVO. May be the 'starting' gun for a reassessment of that one. Mkt Cap £0.5m versus supposed Net Asset Value of c.£1.5m.
 
ASA - ropey quarterly update but very positive sounding outlook giving some medium term goals (e.g. Gold production increasing to 90,000-100,000 oz p.a. at $900-1000 AISC cost per oz would give potential cashflows of c.$27-45m p.a.)

http://www.investegate.co.uk/asa-re...-and-explorations-update/201608110700068636G/

Summary

To summarise, this was a contrasting quarter for our operating mines with a net positive outcome - the fundamentals and momentum are strong. With challenging market conditions persisting in the first half of 2016, we continue to focus on short-term cost management actions as well as accelerating longer-term structural initiatives. As a result, the Board expects the Group's performance in the second half of 2016 to be stronger than in the first half and is confident of its progress for the remaining part of FY2017 and beyond."
 
Very quiet at moment as most of the main movers and shakers tend to be on holiday over August.

Will be interesting how Chinese PMIs develop coming out of seasonal slowdown and which companies are preparing the ground for a bit of a PR blitz once people return to their desks.

From that aspect liking the look of a GUN seems to be some ducks being lined up

CPX usually have results/trading statement September 1st, i'd expect this one could be transformational

ASA chart set up looking good for a seasonal upswing on back of commodity price strength
 
With gold now trading at $1,350 per ounce and AISC holding steady, net profit margins for the industry have increased from $220 to over $500 per ounce – an increase of 127% in just 7 months. The industry hasn’t enjoyed similar profit margins since 2012, when the price of gold exceeded $1,600 per ounce.

During the first 7 months of 2016, the Sprott Gold Miners ETF (NYSE Arca: SGDM) increased by 126.34%. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

While there isn’t a perfect correlation between profit margin growth and stock appreciation, you can clearly see there is a strong link. So while the year-to-date stock gains for gold stocks look astronomical, they really reflect the significant improvement in profit margins that the industry could benefit from.

Are the recent gains in the gold mining stocks sustainable? If the price of gold holds at current levels, then we believe that current valuations will hold. No doubt, the sector is volatile but the macro drivers supporting gold right now are powerful.

We have never witnessed a period where trillions of dollars of government bonds have negative yields and interest rates for some countries stand at their lowest levels in centuries. In this unprecedented investment environment, gold has become a compelling alternative currency and store of value. If gold prices continue to move higher, we anticipate the gold miners to benefit on an exponential basis.

- See more at: http://www.shareprophets.com/views/...big-gains-in-gold-stocks#sthash.wDoKmEBo.dpuf
 
CPX usually have results/trading statement September 1st, i'd expect this one could be transformational

Hope so with CPX, so much potential..
 
Gold

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/u9E2NIBGLlI" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
 
Very quiet at moment as most of the main movers and shakers tend to be on holiday over August.

Will be interesting how Chinese PMIs develop coming out of seasonal slowdown and which companies are preparing the ground for a bit of a PR blitz once people return to their desks.

From that aspect liking the look of a GUN seems to be some ducks being lined up

CPX usually have results/trading statement September 1st, i'd expect this one could be transformational

ASA chart set up looking good for a seasonal upswing on back of commodity price strength

Good rise by ASA today

TJI - also looking good, maybe news regarding the remaining two plots
 
Suggestions that monetary authorities doing some sort of QE/printing funny money ops in the background to support asset prices after Brexit. Who knows? I think it's an each way in such uncertain times to have spec positions in gold juniors. A few look like they could come back to life with a following wind. ALO and RRR a couple I'm keeping an eye on.
 
CLNR someone mentioned 'Algy Cluff up to his old tricks again', think the guy is in his 70s? and probably on his last legs but has a good track record of Company-building, this little ramp-fest seems to be prior to an upcoming fundraising but a 3TCF gas prospect they are talking about is really quite huge. They will put out CPR in Sept no doubt timed for maximum ramp into fundraising. Chart has stabilised after their failed UCG strategy and looks like decent base for a ramp.

big.chart
 
Billionaires piling into Gold

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/gJ5QYctx02Y" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
 
ASA could be about to go big. Golden Cross observed.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Not just anyone saying this... but guys who are considered authorities on the gold scene

There will be a war on Gold

By Tom Winnifrith | Sunday 28 August 2016




Author Jim Rickards recently did an interview with Sprott in which he opined that there will be a war, by the Central Banksters and big Western Governments on gold. It is fascinating stuff. Over to Sprott:

Tekoa Da Silva: Jim, over the last year, how have you observed changes in geopolitics and world markets? What is the narrative in your mind?

James G. Rickards: Well, some things are changing quite a bit. Some things haven’t changed. Some of the fundamental forces are the same. Superficially, we’ve had a lot of news. We’ve had the Brexit. We’ve had the unexpected rise of Donald Trump. We’ve had the Turkish coup. We’ve seen Venezuela implode. So there have been a lot of very important, very significant political and geopolitical developments and they can all impact gold or commodities one way or another.

But certain things haven’t changed and I think these are important to focus on because they really drive the price of all commodities and the number one thing, is the struggle between deflation and inflation and this is something I talked about in my first book Currency Wars in 2011.

- See more at: http://www.shareprophets.com/views/23315/there-will-be-a-war-on-gold#sthash.1slM9EG1.dpuf
 
s28/Zed_mann - What are your thoughts on CTAG? Not in and not looking to chase it here but look at the momentum.
 
CTAG looks like a con to me. These fitness wearables seem to be ten a penny and no real innovation in any of them. Likes of Apple will clean up, also-rans will just lose money.
 
CTAG looks like a con to me. These fitness wearables seem to be ten a penny and no real innovation in any of them. Likes of Apple will clean up, also-rans will just lose money.

Plenty of those around on aim
 
I take these Chinese PMI numbers coming out of Summer doldrums as good news. Should see stronger than expected economy/markets (whether due to real activity or monetary stimulus) for/into the year end.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/31/chin...gust-against-expectations-of-499-reuters.html

China services and manufacturing PMIs expanded in August

CNBC.com staff | @CNBC
14 Hours Ago

Factory activity in China expanded at its fastest pace in nearly two years in August, an official survey showed Thursday, although analysts cautioned that the world's second-largest economy wasn't out of the woods yet.
 
Having said that the chart looks to have based, if Lenigas is true to form will use the good news to ramp prior to placing so might be due a run

big.chart

EVO is now GUN (Gunsynd whatever that means!)

Looks like it's had a great basing pattern and could be good to go considering net assets supposedly multiples of current Mkt Cap
 
CLNR someone mentioned 'Algy Cluff up to his old tricks again', think the guy is in his 70s? and probably on his last legs but has a good track record of Company-building, this little ramp-fest seems to be prior to an upcoming fundraising but a 3TCF gas prospect they are talking about is really quite huge. They will put out CPR in Sept no doubt timed for maximum ramp into fundraising. Chart has stabilised after their failed UCG strategy and looks like decent base for a ramp.

big.chart

As predicted, I'd watch out for a placing soon and then reassess if it gets back to 1.8p ish as support?
 
GUN

http://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.asp?ShareTicker=GUN
Plantman
Posts: 451
Off Topic
Opinion: No Opinion
Price: 0.06
price/valueToday 13:41Based on final accounts, which are obviously out of date in terms of todays value, we had net assets of £1.47million plus the 350k that was raised but does not appear to have been invested.
So, we have roughly the 700k in cash, 3% of ALBA (103k value), 2% of HH and 10%? of the tungsten mine. If we only went by the outdated and heavily discounted accounts figures of £1.47m then we can see the potential here and what the share price should be.
RNS due on the tungsten mine.
RNS's due for HH.
RNS due for investments that are to be made.
I too need the price to more than double but i'm hopeful once HH takes off again
 
GUN

Previously only looked at the chart on EMA basis. On SMA it looks a bit closer to breakout territory

Not one i'd chase but for a tiddler with crap Management it does have some cash/asset backing so could get exciting very quickly if they play it right

big.chart
 
Last edited:
GUN

Todays volume is 30m which sounds huge and looks significant on the chart. It actually only represents c.£18k worth of business. You can buy 1% of this Company for c.£7k
That sort of illiquidity gives an indication of why if it gets marketed it could easily run.
 
Another one of Lenigas's today...

Schools back

GUN setting up very nicely

The Aussie punter that he is, he's renamed EVO after a famous Racehorse. Obviously likes sending coded messages to his Aussie punter followers/mates ?

p.php
 
Last edited:
ASA does look close to a major re-rating in which case I'd say 2p is just the start. Could see multiples of that. Several catalysts possible Mugabe passing away ? Smelter re-start ? Financing for Zani Kodo ? Really is alive with possibilities right now.
 
ASA does look close to a major re-rating in which case I'd say 2p is just the start. Could see multiples of that. Several catalysts possible Mugabe passing away ? Smelter re-start ? Financing for Zani Kodo ? Really is alive with possibilities right now.

Thank s28

CPX keeping everyone waiting with there update. could they be waiting for with Iphone 7 launch first.
 
CPX good idea. Given up on waiting myself but the AVX and Murata licences and limited publicity looks like possible Apple sorting out their supply chain/double sourcing. Interesting if it comes off. Would explain why AVX happy to stump up what looks like £1m a year in licencing.royalties seemingly as a 'minimum'.
 
Some interesting RNSes out from FUM and RGM

Lots of interesting chart set ups as well

FUM "MED2002: Breakthrough Results in $5 billion Market"
 
CLNR and ASA charts show how big a move you can get once a stock trades outside of a 50 day and 200 day MA 'pincer' movement.

GUN seems to be shaping to break. (it has on SMA, not yet on EMA)
 
Aussie listed EMH might be Lenigas's next big ramp. Yesterday EMH said they would do a placing with REM. REM have not RNSed that deal as far as I can tell.

EMH from a cursory glance looks to have a 500mt Lithium deposit grading about 0.4% compared with REM / BCN 's Lithium deposit of 1000mt grading 0.2%

But REM and BCN combined have a market cap of over £100m compared with EMH only c.£8m

Not checked figures properly but with upcoming European Lithium IPO this sector could get hot

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk...tap-into-burgeoning-lithium-market-72943.html

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/D1v4ENzY17M" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

doh!

big.chart
 
I am a profitable and much better trader today than I was. All because my uncle decided several years ago that his nephew didn't need to be spoon-fed.

"Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day; teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime."
 
Concept stocks and rubbish leading the way right now. Hallmarks of a liquidity driven retail dominated market.
 
What a set up !
CLNR someone mentioned 'Algy Cluff up to his old tricks again', think the guy is in his 70s? and probably on his last legs but has a good track record of Company-building, this little ramp-fest seems to be prior to an upcoming fundraising but a 3TCF gas prospect they are talking about is really quite huge. They will put out CPR in Sept no doubt timed for maximum ramp into fundraising. Chart has stabilised after their failed UCG strategy and looks like decent base for a ramp.

big.chart
 
FUM live webcasting analyst presentation later

Analyst meeting and webcast

A meeting for analysts will be held at 10am this morning, 13 September 2016, at the offices of Buchanan, 107 Cheapside, London EC2V 6DN. There will be a live webcast of the analyst presentation. To listen to the webcast, please log on to the following web address approximately 5 minutes before 10.00am: http://vm.buchanan.uk.com/2016/futuramedical130916/registration.htm

A recording of the webcast will also be made available at www.futuramedical.com and www.buchanan.uk.com following the results meeting.
 
'Interesting' Chairman's statement from THAL today

Starts off talking about Jaws I and Jaws II...

Includes these insights...

Worth a read if you have a spare half hour and interest in markets right now

http://www.investegate.co.uk/thalassa-holdings--thal-/rns/interim-results/201609130700066169J/

Another "bizarre rambling statement" from yours truly? Without a doubt! Melodramatic. No! Fact, Yes! Relevant to a Mid-Year or Annual Report, absolutely, because the chaotic environment outlined above is the one in which we operate.

So, how should any company operate in an environment recently described by one US fund manager, "as one in which rational investment is currently impossible"?

Given a combined age of 250 years old, the board of Thalassa might on occasion appear more akin to Satler and Waldorf sitting in the balcony criticizing everyone and everything. I would, however, argue that a bit of grey hair right now probably represents a safer pair of hands than Shane Warne showed at the Oval in 2005 when he dropped Kevin Pietersen (and the Ashes!). Pietersen went on to score 158!

There is a time to be aggressive and a time to be defensive and we at Thalassa, if it is not apparent from my musings above, are still fearful of both the macro and micro economic environment in our areas of operation. This is reflected in our hedging strategy that has again, so far this year, generated sound profits for the Company. However, lets not forget, it is chaos that creates opportunity.

Were it not for zero or in some cases negative interest rates, we believe that stock prices would not currently be trading at or near their all time highs! With this in mind we continue to hedge with a negative bias.

And lastly, to the host of City analysts, City Scribblers and Fund Managers who are obliged to read multiple Chairman's statements; trust me, it is more challenging (boring?) writing a Chairman's statement by far, than having to read one! Nevertheless, my thanks goes to those with the patience to have done so.
 
CLNR is crazy right now. GUN is setting up similarly though.

Bought CLNR in May for 01.2 as soon as I heard of the PMG deal. Perhaps one of my best investments so far. Any idea whats happening to PANR? I hold £15k at 90p and getting a bit nervous now.
 
Oil and gas not my thing right now, just pointed out CLNR as looked an interesting special situation with great chart set up

(if you do like oil and gas AND chart set-ups GUN is looking good but guess depends on your view of the Horse Hill posse UKOG etc ? )

On PANR seems a big bear/bull argument going on right now...

http://www.shareprophets.com/views/...t-fat-toad-talking-cock-on-pantheon-resources

On PMG I do not trust those lot (ex Dana Petroleum) some real b.s. emanates from them if I recall. I think I got some mates into it at about 7p (late 90s) and it went as high as £21 a share ? (of course don't ask about dilution and consolidations etc although Management seemed quite happy to spread the manure they had made people millionaires! Themselves anyway)
 
RED this morning's positive write up on last week's Ministerial visit in the Financial Times. It's on page 2 if you want to read it in the print edition.

Financial Times
Battery that could revolutionise renewables on trial in Scotland
By Mure Dickie
 
SALV Corporate Video

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/F3ywIVrJ-S4" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
 
SALV are certainly ambitious

These are the valuation comparitors they reference in that video

Screenshot_2016_09_13_at_7_18_50_PM.png
 
RED now 10p mentioned here at about 1p couple of years back (formerly called CCE). Would not rule out 100p as it's the sort of concept stock which could catch imagination of the market. Check out the long term monthly smoothed chart

big.chart
 
Trying to fathom the current dash for trash which is going up ridiculous amounts is almost impossible as one needs to get into the mind of a febrile herd of retail punters which roam Twitter

However the interest in concept stocks is interesting and worthy of some analysis. In a deflationary low growth market it is the few growth stories which will attract huge premium ratings due to scarcity. At least you don't have to worry about near term fundamentals and it is a investment that at least Institutional investors can seek to justify on some economic grounds over the long term.

Looking at lots of industrial energy tech stuff again like

TRK, TRT, SCE, VLS, AOR, CPX, RED etc etc which could easily spark based on decent chart basing formations
 
Last edited:
PVR - a salutory lesson in how oil and gas share ramping has changed

In the old days it was easy to get shares ramped on announcements from rampy Management.

Take a £10m Market Cap company. Announce you were going to drill on a prospective resource of 100m barrels.
Punters could run away and do some back of envelope hype figures.
Say the geological chance of success is 1/7 on a wildcat well. You are in line for a risk-adjusted 100/7 or c.14m barrels. With Oil at $100/barrel that's worth a notional risk-adjusted $1400m right? Of course you have to factor in development costs and discount back for time/risk etc and so a rule of thumb might be you value prospective barrels in the ground at say $10/barrel so $140m of in-situ value. The Market Cap of rampy oil and gas explorer might start to discount some of that success and voila you have a bagger. Maybe the stock would go up 100% or 200% depending how well the rampers got the message out.

Unfortunately cold hard reality has set in on these flights of fancy. At $50 oil the figures don't look so great. The value per barrel in the ground won't go down linearly (i.e. $100 to $50 oil means $10 to $5 in-situ valuation It becomes more like $0-1/barrel). Many wildcats fail and so rather than 1/7 geological CoS you are looking at 1/15. Then take into account even oilers with ACTUAL proven up reserves like XEL and GKP are going bankrupt in this environment showing how hard it is to monetise even successful exploration.

So PVR come out with this today

http://www.investegate.co.uk/provid...---operational-update---/20160915070143H2291/

Speaking today, Tony O'Reilly, Chief Executive of Providence said:

"Thanks to the support of our shareholders, plus the substantially lower forecast cost profile, we are making solid progress with our planned drilling operations in FEL 2/14 for summer 2017. As previously stated, our base case programme continues to be a test of the c. 3 BBO resource potential of the Druid exploration prospect. We are, however, also engineering the planned well to allow for the penetration of the underlying c. 1.9 BBO Drombeg exploration prospect should the opportunity arise."


and despite the potential of Billions of Barrels of Oil the market shrugs...

p.php
p.php
 
Worth contrasting with CLNR which had a ramptastic announcement and went ballistic from 1p to 8p within weeks. So why did it not suffer the same market shrug PVR received?

1. Management credibility - Algy Cluff has discovered real giant fields before. Market trusts him. Tony O'Reilly of PVR does not have that track record.

2. Investor base - CLNR recently changed strategy from UGC (underground coal gasification) to conventional oil and gas so the investor base is not made up of stale O&G bulls. It's a fresh story.

3. Gas in the North Sea is much easier to monetise because it's a 'snuggle development' with infrastructure all around it. Oil very deep and far from the Coast of Ireland in the Atlantic margin does not have that monetisation potential.
 
Gold, silver, & platinum a 3-5 year bull market lies ahead
By Tom Winnifrith | Saturday 17 September 2016

Thom Calandra has learned with age that trying to predict where the world economy will go is often very difficult. The purchasing power of gold and real estate against paper currencies is a possible indicator. There is a compression of paper currency everywhere, and it’s difficult to see where the US dollar is going when it’s only trading against other paper. His ultimate insurance is to have plenty of metal stashed away. Against that background...

Thom argues in the weekly Palisade Capital podcast:

• Gold, silver, & platinum will be some of the best performers in the next 3-5 years

- See more at: http://www.shareprophets.com/views/...r-bull-market-lies-ahead#sthash.i1IiCc9d.dpuf
 
Granted but in this instance he is just signposting good content from people who actually have a clue
 
SALV

Red Hot Biotech Alert:

Dear Reader,

In the late 1990s researchers working for the Japanese pharmaceutical company Kirin extracted a chemical from a marine deep sea sponge which, they found, activated certain cells. This is the origin of a new approach to cancer therapy that could propel our latest Breakthrough Biotech portfolio pick to stardom.

As I described in BBA #223 (August 8th) SALVARX (AIM: SALV) is intent upon taking the most promising research in the field of cancer immunotherapy and turning then into commercial winners. So far it has invested in just two programs, one from the USA’s Intensity Therapeutics and the other, from my home city of Oxford, from iOx Therapeutics. To get the latest news on the latter I cycled up the Weatherall Institute of Molecular Medicine to meet iOx’s founding father Professor Vincenzo Cerundolo, the man who has spotted the potential of this sea sponge compound.

Professor Cerundolo is bullish for cancer immunotherapy and as he is a scientist this enthusiasm is of course based on observable facts. ‘The field of tumour immunology is on very solid, both conceptual and technical, footing,’ he has said. ‘We are benefiting from the basic knowledge derived from the last thrity years of research and we are applying those concepts to the clinic, to cancer patients right now.’

http://www.imm.ox.ac.uk/vincenzo-cerundolo

‘By far the most exciting development in the field,’ he continues, ‘is the use of antibodies that can block inhibiting signals in T cells, lowering the threshold of activation of T cells.’

This is the basis of today’s key cancer immunotherapy drugs, such as Bristol Myers’ nivolumab, Merck’s pembrolizumab, and Roche’s recently approved atezolizumab. The ‘-ab’ suffix denotes antibody and each of these acts to prevent the cancer cell from fending off the killer T cell. This makes them all ‘checkpoint inhibitors’, a class of drugs that ‘relieves the brakes’ on the immune response whereas other drugs aim to ‘press the accelerator’ by giving the immune response a boost.

As I said in BBA #223, these checkpoint inhibitors have proved effective and in a minority of cases cleared up the patient’s cancer. The thrust now is to understand why they do not always work, and improve therapy by delivering other drugs in conjunction – pressing the accelerator and lifting the break at the same time, perhaps. I hope that you know this much already and also that Professor Cerundolo’s drug candidate, IMM60, is likely to be tested on patients in combination with a checkpoint inhibitor – more on this in a moment. But I wanted to understand exactly how IMM60 works. This is not easy to explain, but here goes.

I have often referred lazily to T-cells as if they are the only cells of the immune system, roaming the body and killing anything that should not be there. But rather than a single player the immune system is an orchestra with several players including B-cells, thymocytes, granulocytes, macrophages and more. One cell type is the invariant Natural Killer T-cell (‘iNKT’s). In a 2013 paper in Nature Magazine these cells were described as existing ‘in a poised effector state, which enables them to rapidly produce cytokines (the weapons that destroy cancer and other foreign cells) following activation. They recognize…..antigens in a conserved manner, but their activation can catalyse a spectrum of polarized immune responses’.

In the case of cancer this means that the iNKTs both act directly upon the tumour cells, but also set off a chain of events that further boosts the immune response.

Specifically the chain of events goes like this. The iNKT cell binds to dendritic cells, stimulating the latter to produce Interleukin12 proteins. In turn these cause white blood cells called T lymphocytes to express a surface marker called CD8. This new abundance of CD8 helps the T lymphocytes to find, and then destroy, cancer cells.

This is what biotechnologists refer to as a ‘pathway’ that starts with activation of the iNKT cells and finishes with destruction of the cancer cells. So the key question is – how do we set off the iNKT cells? This leads me back to the marine deep sea sponge. Remember that a chemical extracted from this was able to activate cells? Well, synthetic forms of this chemical activate iNKT cells by providing a link between them and the dendritic cells. This enables iNKT cells to hook up to dendritic cells and kicks off the process I have described.

IMM60 is the name of the link designed by Professor Cerundolo and his team, and is the basis of a new drug that has been successfully trialled agaisnt mice. Now we shall see if it works in humans. The first human trials in humans are planned and if, as seems possible, the trials are offered to patients whose metastatic (i.e. spreading) melanoma has failed to respond to any other treatment then volunteers are likely to sign up fast. In any event the trial will be very much an Oxford affair. As Professor Cerundolo explained IMM60 was discovered in Oxford, it has been developed to this point in Oxford and the trial will be run in Oxford by the leading oncologist Professor Mark Middleton. So this is a chance for the city to demonstrate that academic research is integrated into the wider medical community and it would love to be able to advertise a success.

The plan is to enrol sixty patients. Twenty would be given a checkpoint inhibitor drug (anti PD-1) on its own; twenty more would be given only IMM60; and the remaining twenty would be given both. Although the sample size is quite small this should be enough to see whether IMM60 is efficacious. If so it will attract the attention of the big pharmaceutical companies that desperately want to participate in cancer immunotherapy, but in particular it should appeal to the checkpoint inhibitor providers.

All being well the trial will get under way next year and results one advantage of trials for this sort of therapy is that results become evident quite quickly – within a matter of months the cancer either recedes or it does not. The result of this trial will be critical to the immediate future of iOx and success would persuade investors that SalvaRx has the ability to spot winners in what is a crowded space. I will of course keep you right up to date as this story unfolds, but before wrapping up I must mention two other things. First that iOx is already working on a ‘second generation’ version of IMM60, called IMM65. I will not atttempt to explain its mechanism of action, but suffice to say that this is a nanoparticle that delivers the IMM60 ‘link’ as well as an antigenic protein, and this could make it more powerful than IMM60 alone.

The other important thing that I got from my meeting with Professor Cerundolo was his appreciation for the backing of SalvaRx. Academics and business folk do not always mix easily but the Professor enthused about the progress that has been made since SalvaRx got involved, for example in arranging clinical trials. This is all most encouraging and with SalvaRx intent upon making more investments into cancer immunotherapy the story is exciting. But remember – it is very high risk. So don’t bet the ranch. My buy limit is 30p. BUY UP TO 30p.
 
Good prospects long term but in short term it's hugely overbought and run right into historic multi-year resistance in 90-110p range. Will be tempting for Company to place stock I'd guess.

big.chart
 
ASA setting up nicely prior to next weeks AGM (i don't expect any news from it to change fundamentals)

The fundamentals already suggest it is hugely underpriced by maybe 100-200% (and that's despite a 300% move in recent weeks already)

Latest bit of excitement seems to emanate from ASA's Zani Kodo mine being highlighted in a Randgold Resources (RRS) presentation. Randgold are a major gold player Internationally but particularly in DR Congo.
 
ASA setting up nicely prior to next weeks AGM (i don't expect any news from it to change fundamentals)

The fundamentals already suggest it is hugely underpriced by maybe 100-200% (and that's despite a 300% move in recent weeks already)

Latest bit of excitement seems to emanate from ASA's Zani Kodo mine being highlighted in a Randgold Resources (RRS) presentation. Randgold are a major gold player Internationally but particularly in DR Congo.

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?ASA.L

The MACD is showing divergence...it below the signal line, also histogrram is below zero, think there will be a big correction
 
Don't really understand that. MACD Divergence ? I tend to just follow the overall trend and it doesn't look outlandish and it is above the par line so looks fine to me ? Not sure what the signal line is, I tend to use the 0 baseline as key. Also RSI is not showing it overbought so can't see a correction from such low level on RSI

I think any correction would be an opportunity to buy more frankly given the NTAV per share is over 2p+ per share

big.chart
 
ASA If you look at longer term chart without the averages etc you can see quite clear 'W' double bottom with target of 4p ?

p.php
 
What do you make of this GUN chart ?

GUN

Previously only looked at the chart on EMA basis. On SMA it looks a bit closer to breakout territory

Not one i'd chase but for a tiddler with crap Management it does have some cash/asset backing so could get exciting very quickly if they play it right

big.chart
 
I have to admit reason I got into Stocks was because the Mutual Funds I invested in tanked and I thought these blooming Professional Fund Managers aren't much kop. Then I became a Professional Fund Manager and wasn't much kop :-p

So I'd suggest most reasonably intelligent people should diversify, maybe have some of your portfolio in long term savings plan with an Institution but why not give individual stock investing a go yourself?

I'd also advise a pound cost averaging (dollar cost averaging) approach so you don't time the market. It is human nature to want to invest in something with a track record of success but markets can be contrarian and if there are only buyers that's probably time to be a seller. With a discipline imposed by a pound cost averaging approach you are more likely to buy more stock/funds in downturns rather than at the top of a market so you benefit more from general growth rather than be victim to fads.
 
Back
Top