Can Imran Khan win the election?

[gkb101277867]

Was talking to my cousin in Pakistan about Pakistani politics. I really like imran khan and think he has the values and character to take Pakistan forward. He is a breath of fresh air in pakistani politics.

However, my cousin doesn't think he has a chance of winning the election. I don't know too much about voting patterns in Pakistan but I would have thought that Imran khan would have a great chance especially after this while supreme court thing. He says if PMLN doesn't win then PPP will win.

Another thing he said was that most people he knows don't really like Imran Khan and they see him as a loudmouth trouble maker type. He said most people like nawaz sharif.

Tbh I'm completely shocked lol. What does everyone else think?

 

[Slog]

No chance in Punjab

You could put a pole in a Punjab pind and say that this pole is from Nawaz Sharif's party, and that pole will win the election

 

[gkb101277867]

No chance in Punjab

You could put a pole in a Punjab pind and say that this pole is from Nawaz Sharif's party, and that pole will win the election

Why what's different in punjab? And what about his chances in Pakistan as a whole? Sorry if it's a stupid qs but I'm not too well informed of pakistani politics

 

[Mian]

He got a chance in case Nawaz Sharif is disqualified in Panama case internal politics in his party starts and grouping result in new parties coming out of PMLN like Ch Nisar forming his own party. The only party that stands a chance in Punjab after PMLN is PTI and PTI future depends on what happens in Panama case. PPP need a whole decade of efforts from Bilawal to make a come back in Punjab

 

[gkb101277867]

Why is everyone just talking about Punjab? Do you only need to win Punjab to win? I'm talking about Pakistan as a whole?

 

[Slog]

Why what's different in punjab? And what about his chances in Pakistan as a whole? Sorry if it's a stupid qs but I'm not too well informed of pakistani politics

well he doesnt have much chance in Sindh as well but he hasnt tried at all there either.

But Punjab is important as whoever wins Punjab forms federal govt as there are more seats there than rest of country put together

 

[WhenSultansBowled]

[MENTION=142303]gkb101277867[/MENTION] Nawaz Shareef and co have a very strong (corrupt) presence in Punjab. Punjab is 75% Pakistan, hence the importance.
[MENTION=138463]Slog[/MENTION] Have you ever been to a pind in Punjab?

 

[Slog]

[MENTION=142303]gkb101277867[/MENTION] Nawaz Shareef and co have a very strong (corrupt) presence in Punjab. Punjab is 75% Pakistan, hence the importance.
[MENTION=138463]Slog[/MENTION] Have you ever been to a pind in Punjab?

yes.

(my pole example is obv not literal in sense. i understand the biraderi culture etc)

 

[gkb101277867]

I was just quite shocked tbh because I think Imran Khan is exactly what Pakistan needs right now and so does every British Pakistani I know. But talking to my cousin in Pakistan it seems a lot of people think of him as an attention seeking loudmouth. Pretty shocked tbh

 

[Varun]

I was just quite shocked tbh because I think Imran Khan is exactly what Pakistan needs right now and so does every British Pakistani I know. But talking to my cousin in Pakistan it seems a lot of people think of him as an attention seeking loudmouth. Pretty shocked tbh

His stock dipped alarmingly when he was in his desperate Kejriwal years (2014 - 2016), but thanks to this Panama thing he seems to be back above the surface of late.

However, don't get your hopes up too much. Pakistan's democracy is flawed in that all one needs to do is win one province (Punjab) to win the whole country. And Nawaz and Shahbaz are kings of Punjab - where the motroways and metro buses reign supreme. Imran Khan doesn't stand a chance.

It would be interesting to see whether the PTI would win in KPK. From all accounts the party has had negative reviews there, and the province is known for hurling out the incumbent election after election.

 

[WebGuru]

Why is everyone just talking about Punjab? Do you only need to win Punjab to win? I'm talking about Pakistan as a whole?

There are 272 National Assembly seats in Pakistan and 148 of them are in Punjab. Rest of the 124 seats are in Sindh+KP+FATA+ISB+Baloch. So you only need to win majority of Punjab and a couple of seats outside Punjab to get a clear majority to form Federal govt. I hope you got the idea now... Punjab population is around 50% of the total Pakistan population.

 

[WebGuru]

It would be interesting to see whether the PTI would win in KPK. From all accounts the party has had negative reviews there, and the province is known for hurling out the incumbent election after election.

PTI is all set to become first party in recent history to win KP twice in a row but opposition in KP is thinking about a major alliance for 2018 elections that can really hurt PTI.

 

[Slog]

His stock dipped alarmingly when he was in his desperate Kejriwal years (2014 - 2016), but thanks to this Panama thing he seems to be back above the surface of late.

However, don't get your hopes up too much. Pakistan's democracy is flawed in that all one needs to do is win one province (Punjab) to win the whole country. And Nawaz and Shahbaz are kings of Punjab - where the motroways and metro buses reign supreme. Imran Khan doesn't stand a chance.

It would be interesting to see whether the PTI would win in KPK. From all accounts the party has had negative reviews there, and the province is known for hurling out the incumbent election after election.

What accounts? Actually they have positive reviews there. Ig things go right for next 8-10 months (in terms of no major terror attacks and good law, order situation, then PTI can build on current lead

 

[WebGuru]

What accounts? Actually they have positive reviews there. Ig things go right for next 8-10 months (in terms of no major terror attacks and good law, order situation, then PTI can build on current lead

PTI is actually going to field a candidate against Siraj ul Haq in Dir that shows PTI is looking for clear majority this time no coalition goverment in mind. But they should rotate their candidates because KP waale dubara dubara us candidate ko vote dete nae hen...

 

[Black Zero]

PTI will win next election.

- less chance of rigging in Punjab.
- so many lotas recently joined pti so these will get tickets.
- public sentiments that it's now IK's turn after his long struggle.

However PTI govt would be no different and people wold be happy and distribute sweets when IK would be disqualified.

 

[Bewal Express]

No is the simple answer. The PTI cannot win in Punjab( not least because of the number of Jahil voters) and hence cant win but the legacy of IK will live long after he has gone. It is not an understatement to say that he has changed the mindset of a large number of people and he has quite literally made the Sharifs cry.

 

[A.A.Z]

Imran doesn't need to win Punjab to win the next election. But he does need to take a huge slice of it. Punjab matters because it has just under 50 percent of Pakistan's population but a little over 50 percent of the seats. There might be slight alterations in this with the census about to come out soon but it still doesn't change the fact that Imran has to dent Nawaz in Punjab to win the election.

PPP won the 2008 election because it took one third of the seats in Punjab, mostly Southern Punjab, which is the Seraiki belt who are vastly neglected and don't acclimatise with the rest of Punjab. Imran needs to make some inroads here as well as the rest of the province.

The reality is that unless Nawaz gets dismissed, if he manages to cling on even with all the damage to his reputation and credibility he will still hold onto the core of Punjab. Imran needs at least 50-60 of the 148 available seats in Punjab along with his other seats around the country to be able to win. But even then it will be a weak government without an outright majority in the National Assembly, to get an outright majority Imran needs Nawaz to be sent packing by the courts.

Preferably Imran is better off in the opposition because he makes sure the government treads a fine line otherwise he'll blow up any mistakes in their face. He holds the government up for accountability and forces them to run the country better. Not winning in 2018 but winning in 2023 maybe better for Imran.

 

[Slog]

Imran doesn't need to win Punjab to win the next election. But he does need to take a huge slice of it. Punjab matters because it has just under 50 percent of Pakistan's population but a little over 50 percent of the seats. There might be slight alterations in this with the census about to come out soon but it still doesn't change the fact that Imran has to dent Nawaz in Punjab to win the election.

PPP won the 2008 election because it took one third of the seats in Punjab, mostly Southern Punjab, which is the Seraiki belt who are vastly neglected and don't acclimatise with the rest of Punjab. Imran needs to make some inroads here as well as the rest of the province.

The reality is that unless Nawaz gets dismissed, if he manages to cling on even with all the damage to his reputation and credibility he will still hold onto the core of Punjab. Imran needs at least 50-60 of the 148 available seats in Punjab along with his other seats around the country to be able to win. But even then it will be a weak government without an outright majority in the National Assembly, to get an outright majority Imran needs Nawaz to be sent packing by the courts.

Preferably Imran is better off in the opposition because he makes sure the government treads a fine line otherwise he'll blow up any mistakes in their face. He holds the government up for accountability and forces them to run the country better. Not winning in 2018 but winning in 2023 maybe better for Imran.

Imran will be in his mid 70s by 2023.

He needs to start a public campaign to project an image where south punjab is seen as different from rest of punjab.

should come out publicly in support of seraiki sooba

 

[A.A.Z]

Imran will be in his mid 70s by 2023.

He needs to start a public campaign to project an image where south punjab is seen as different from rest of punjab.

should come out publicly in support of seraiki sooba

He'll have just turned 70 in 2023. Trump was the same age when he got elected.

He can't start this campaign because the Punjab base will hate him for it and he needs them to come in power. Punjab needs the seraiki belt to maintain it's political supremacy as well as greater allocation of federal funds which it uses on the rest of the province apart from the neglected seraiki belt. If Imran messes with this arrangement the political heavyweights in Punjab will distance themselves from him and then he'll stand no chance of coming into power.

 

[Dios]

I was just quite shocked tbh because I think Imran Khan is exactly what Pakistan needs right now and so does every British Pakistani I know. But talking to my cousin in Pakistan it seems a lot of people think of him as an attention seeking loudmouth. Pretty shocked tbh

Yes most of Imran's supporters are BritPaks or Canadian Pakistanis who deserted their country but like to wear the garb of patriotism on internet forums. The Pakistanis still living and making an actual contribution to the future of Pakistan see Imran for who he really is. Nothing shocking about it.

 

[Waseem]

I was just quite shocked tbh because I think Imran Khan is exactly what Pakistan needs right now and so does every British Pakistani I know. But talking to my cousin in Pakistan it seems a lot of people think of him as an attention seeking loudmouth. Pretty shocked tbh

Extreme ignorance and lack of education, their thinking is lot different to how people like you and me think. Amount of rubbish posted by my cousin on fb is quite shocking but nothing can convince them. Some of them have lost jobs, remained unemployed for months and years and even had to migrate overseas for better future but all it takes is a motorway and a metro bus project to be over excited.
Even before IK won KPK gov, they would question what has he done for Pak? SERIOUSLY? The guy has never been given chance and even now none of them have even gone close to KPK but they are expert in judging his performance there. Icing on cake is, some strongly believe he is Jewish agent and hospital was actually made to make money and IK has properties all over the world

 

[Waseem]

Yes most of Imran's supporters are BritPaks or Canadian Pakistanis who deserted their country but like to wear the garb of patriotism on internet forums. The Pakistanis still living and making an actual contribution to the future of Pakistan see Imran for who he really is. Nothing shocking about it.

That is an absolutely useless argument on so many levels.

 

[King-Misbah]

I think Imran can come into power. If Nawaz is disqualified in this Panama case, Imran chances will multiply. Nawaz Sharif disqualification will mean that PMLN will implode and the mafia will terminate due to the struggle of power. We need to remember that PTI was robbed in Punjab in 2013 and even with PMLNs state machinery PTI have recently given them a run for money in elections.

 

[Asim_khan]

Yes most of Imran's supporters are BritPaks or Canadian Pakistanis who deserted their country but like to wear the garb of patriotism on internet forums. The Pakistanis still living and making an actual contribution to the future of Pakistan see Imran for who he really is. Nothing shocking about it.

What is it that we're missing that the locals aren't? Why would someone who's making a contribution vote for someone who robs that same contribution from the countries coffers and invests it overseas?

 

[gkb101277867]

Yes most of Imran's supporters are BritPaks or Canadian Pakistanis who deserted their country but like to wear the garb of patriotism on internet forums. The Pakistanis still living and making an actual contribution to the future of Pakistan see Imran for who he really is. Nothing shocking about it.

Erm not all of overseas Pakistanis 'deserted' their country btw as a lot were born here and didn't have a choice. I think you are referring to people such as my grandad. He couldn't care less about politics as he doesn't trust the system. And btw when you talk about contribution he has made more contribution to Pakistan than probably most locals have.

 

[Syed1]

Imran doesn't need to win Punjab to win the next election. But he does need to take a huge slice of it. Punjab matters because it has just under 50 percent of Pakistan's population but a little over 50 percent of the seats. There might be slight alterations in this with the census about to come out soon but it still doesn't change the fact that Imran has to dent Nawaz in Punjab to win the election.

PPP won the 2008 election because it took one third of the seats in Punjab, mostly Southern Punjab, which is the Seraiki belt who are vastly neglected and don't acclimatise with the rest of Punjab. Imran needs to make some inroads here as well as the rest of the province.

The reality is that unless Nawaz gets dismissed, if he manages to cling on even with all the damage to his reputation and credibility he will still hold onto the core of Punjab. Imran needs at least 50-60 of the 148 available seats in Punjab along with his other seats around the country to be able to win. But even then it will be a weak government without an outright majority in the National Assembly, to get an outright majority Imran needs Nawaz to be sent packing by the courts.

Preferably Imran is better off in the opposition because he makes sure the government treads a fine line otherwise he'll blow up any mistakes in their face. He holds the government up for accountability and forces them to run the country better. Not winning in 2018 but winning in 2023 maybe better for Imran.

I think I heard Imran say if he doesn't succeed in 2018 he will handover PTI to his successor.

 

[Syed1]

Yes most of Imran's supporters are BritPaks or Canadian Pakistanis who deserted their country but like to wear the garb of patriotism on internet forums. The Pakistanis still living and making an actual contribution to the future of Pakistan see Imran for who he really is. Nothing shocking about it.

Yeah that is why Imran Khan and PTI got the second highest number of votes in the last election. Showing your lack of intellect yet again.

 

[Varun]

I think I heard Imran say if he doesn't succeed in 2018 he will handover PTI to his successor.

Who is Imran Khan's successor? The PTI seems like a one-man show for the most part.

 

[Syed1]

Who is Imran Khan's successor? The PTI seems like a one-man show for the most part.

Most likely Asad Umar or Jahangir Tareen

 

[Mian]

Who is Imran Khan's successor? The PTI seems like a one-man show for the most part.

Asad Umar he is the face of upper middle class and PTI. Try listening to him. He was the highest paid and most successful CEO in Pakistan when he resigned from his job and joined PTI in 2011 on Imran requesting him again and again.

 

[Syed1]

Asad Umar he is the face of upper middle class and PTI. Try listening to him. He was the highest paid and most successful CEO in Pakistan when he resigned from his job and joined PTI in 2011 on Imran requesting him again and again.

He took Engro from gully mohallah company to a multi-national conglomerate.. Engro is one of the best companies to work for in Pakistan. An older colleague of mine moved from Canada to Pakistan and got a job at Engro and he is printing cash.

 

[WhenSultansBowled]

Most people in Punjab do support IK. They, genuinely, want change.

Problem is, Shareefs have a very strong support network.

I pray to Allah for IK's victory in next election. Pakistan has so much potential and IK can improve country.

 

[Mian]

acepalm:[/QUOTE]

He took Engro from gully mohallah company to a multi-national conglomerate.. Engro is one of the best companies to work for in Pakistan. An older colleague of mine moved from Canada to Pakistan and got a job at Engro and he is printing cash.

Yea Engo started many ventures under Asad Umar. Engo owners had a big shock when Asad told them he is resigning. I think Asad got a good number of shares in Engro i saw them in his assets deceleration on PTI website.

 

[Mian]

Most people in Punjab do support IK. They, genuinely, want change.

Problem is, Shareefs have a very strong support network.

I pray to Allah for IK's victory in next election. Pakistan has so much potential and IK can improve country.

And they know the electables politics of Punjab better than anyone and most of those corrupt electables are beneficiary of this fixed corrupt system so they support Sharifs because who can offer them a better corrupt system than nooras.

 

[yasir]

There are 272 National Assembly seats in Pakistan and 148 of them are in Punjab. Rest of the 124 seats are in Sindh+KP+FATA+ISB+Baloch. So you only need to win majority of Punjab and a couple of seats outside Punjab to get a clear majority to form Federal govt. I hope you got the idea now... Punjab population is around 50% of the total Pakistan population.

If I am not mistaken, its close to 2/3 of country's population, around 62%. And many of Punjab's seats have heavy concentration much like Karachi, means number of votes per NA seat is higher in Punjab than other provinces, lowest is in Balochistan. Baluchistan is biggest province by size, but its mostly barn land...

Punjab needs to be divided into three states atleast. Geographically they are somewhat distinct: Pothohar in North, Central Punjab and Saraki belt in south, they also have some what different culture and language. This division will be good of federation. Too much power in one state is not good for country.

 

[yasir]

Who is Imran Khan's successor? The PTI seems like a one-man show for the most part.

Most parties are one man show, not just in Pakistan but in most places including India. Congress is struggling to find new successor, keep going back to Naroo's blood line, he died 60 years ago... If Quaid-Azam had blood line left, Pakistanis would have latched on to him as well...


It's very difficult to build a new brand, that's why US has 2 term limit. If Obama had run again, he would have won again...Same goes for Regan or Bill. It's important to have term limit and culturally discourage the blood base politics... Part of the problem Asian culture and traditions. Problem is Asia is land of deep history in prophets, Gods and Kings. All the middle-eastern Prophets belong to Ibhrim blood line, pretty much directly, blood line link to Ibhrim, was an important step to be Prophets, almost a necessary. Even Prophet Mohammad showed his linage to the other Son of Ibhrim(the non- Jew one Ishamil)...Same is true for most emperors and kings, there was never really a republic example in Asia, Roman was republic for 400 years...

Indian culture is ruin by cast system, many would say, whatever culture India has is because of cast system. Its very difficult for them(for us too) to separate from it, 5000 years of cast on blood line culture is very hard to fix in few decades, it will take centuries that too if education is really spread through masses...

 

[Pakpak]

His stock dipped alarmingly when he was in his desperate Kejriwal years (2014 - 2016), but thanks to this Panama thing he seems to be back above the surface of late.

However, don't get your hopes up too much. Pakistan's democracy is flawed in that all one needs to do is win one province (Punjab) to win the whole country. And Nawaz and Shahbaz are kings of Punjab - where the motroways and metro buses reign supreme. Imran Khan doesn't stand a chance.

It would be interesting to see whether the PTI would win in KPK. From all accounts the party has had negative reviews there, and the province is known for hurling out the incumbent election after election.

Why does PTI keep getting compared to the Aaam Aadmi party? PTI had the second largest votes in Pakistan after PMLN and by all measures and rights is now the second biggest party after PPP's demise. Almost 9-10 million people voted for it, only 2 million less than PMLN. What did AAP achieve in the general elections?

As for KPK, all surveys, studies shows that from being the most corrupt, least $$$$$ spent on education, most corrupt police etc it is now ranked bottom in all the bad and top in all the good indices despite it not having anywhere near the monetary clout that Punjab or Sindh has. Check out the KPK thread, with inputs from actual posters from KPK, if you think I am making up facts. I know a few doctors who left UK to go KPK myself, while progress has been very slow it is happening. A little fact: salaries for Public hospitals say in somewhere like Allied Hospital in Faisalabad, Punjab, was Rs 9,000, my driver got more than that, which meant no doctor gave a rat's behind about working in a public hospital and everyone would focus on privately run hospitals thus sidelining the majority of the population who couldn't afford private clinics. In KPK the basic pay, from recent news if I am not wrong, has been increased to 50,000-300,000 thus enabling poor people to finally get some attention and making sure doctors give proper time that the public healthcare centers deserve.

There are many more little nitbits like this so feel free to scroll through that thread.

 

[Savak]

Not a chance, if IK couldn't win the elections in 2013, he is not going to win any time in the future. The Social media, Burgur crowd and educated middle class are a very small minority of Pakistani voting population. IK failed to win the elections in 2013 primarily because he did not come anywhere close to attracting the rural voting population who tend to sell their votes for very small minor gains, he needs to come up with a solution for this based on the realities of the Pakistani nation, he will need to get his hands dirty as well unfortunately.

 

[DW44]

PTI is actually going to field a candidate against Siraj ul Haq in Dir that shows PTI is looking for clear majority this time no coalition goverment in mind. But they should rotate their candidates because KP waale dubara dubara us candidate ko vote dete nae hen...

If they sever their ties with JI, ASWJ, JUI(S) and any other religious parties, they have my vote.

 

[Adil_94]

I.K has the Labour effect where social media gives the impression that he will win a landslide due to much higher support amongst middle class urban youth. And also in I.Ks case majority of Pakistani expats in the West who are very active on social media support him because I.Ks main mantra is anti-corruption. But as long as Nooras retain a monopoly on Punjab i think I.K will just fall short.

 

[DRsohail]

His stock dipped alarmingly when he was in his desperate Kejriwal years (2014 - 2016), but thanks to this Panama thing he seems to be back above the surface of late.

However, don't get your hopes up too much. Pakistan's democracy is flawed in that all one needs to do is win one province (Punjab) to win the whole country. And Nawaz and Shahbaz are kings of Punjab - where the motroways and metro buses reign supreme. Imran Khan doesn't stand a chance.

It would be interesting to see whether the PTI would win in KPK. From all accounts the party has had negative reviews there, and the province is known for hurling out thetion... incumbent election after election.

cant say about punjab but here in kpk pti is sweeping next election.they have done reasonably well..

 

[DRsohail]

Why does PTI keep getting compared to the Aaam Aadmi party? PTI had the second largest votes in Pakistan after PMLN and by all measures and rights is now the second biggest party after PPP's demise. Almost 9-10 million people voted for it, only 2 million less than PMLN. What did AAP achieve in the general elections?

As for KPK, all surveys, studies shows that from being the most corrupt, least $$$$$ spent on education, most corrupt police etc it is now ranked bottom in all the bad and top in all the good indices despite it not having anywhere near the monetary clout that Punjab or Sindh has. Check out the KPK thread, with inputs from actual posters from KPK, if you think I am making up facts. I know a few doctors who left UK to go KPK myself, while progress has been very slow it is happening. A little fact: salaries for Public hospitals say in somewhere like Allied Hospital in Faisalabad, Punjab, was Rs 9,000, my driver got more than that, which meant no doctor gave a rat's behind about working in a public hospital and everyone would focus on privately run hospitals thus sidelining the majority of the population who couldn't afford private clinics. In KPK the basic pay, from recent news if I am not wrong, has been increased to 50,000-300,000 thus enabling poor people to finally get some attention and making sure doctors give proper time that the public healthcare centers deserve.

There are many more little nitbits like this so feel free to scroll through that thread.

being a trainee doctor in one of tertiary care hospital in kpk i know what thay have done in health..95% of BHUs have doctor now getting 130 k salary most of which were without dovtors in 2013..they have employed 3 thousand fresh medical officers in perephral areas this month,,,,,,
salary has been increaesd and kpk doctors including trainees are the highest paid in pak...
.insaf card,mti act and the list is lenghty..and most importantly effective vaccination.. whic was missing earlier....
u dont see that measles outbreak now.....they have to do more beacuse the health system is so much falwd that they have to work out of their skins.
..the culture has been developed which will take time to change ..believe me they are still facing ressistence for some good work but they can do it....and dont believe these servya in fact it is the first time kpk govmnt has started annual audit and 2 consecutive years of this audit will tell us that what has been improved..previously no such system was there so u cant compare..

 

[Alamgeer]

Why does PTI keep getting compared to the Aaam Aadmi party? PTI had the second largest votes in Pakistan after PMLN and by all measures and rights is now the second biggest party after PPP's demise. Almost 9-10 million people voted for it, only 2 million less than PMLN. What did AAP achieve in the general elections?

As for KPK, all surveys, studies shows that from being the most corrupt, least $$$$$ spent on education, most corrupt police etc it is now ranked bottom in all the bad and top in all the good indices despite it not having anywhere near the monetary clout that Punjab or Sindh has. Check out the KPK thread, with inputs from actual posters from KPK, if you think I am making up facts. I know a few doctors who left UK to go KPK myself, while progress has been very slow it is happening. A little fact: salaries for Public hospitals say in somewhere like Allied Hospital in Faisalabad, Punjab, was Rs 9,000, my driver got more than that, which meant no doctor gave a rat's behind about working in a public hospital and everyone would focus on privately run hospitals thus sidelining the majority of the population who couldn't afford private clinics. In KPK the basic pay, from recent news if I am not wrong, has been increased to 50,000-300,000 thus enabling poor people to finally get some attention and making sure doctors give proper time that the public healthcare centers deserve.

There are many more little nitbits like this so feel free to scroll through that thread.

Please do not mislead people. In 2013 PMLN got 15 million votes while PTI got only 7 millions.

 

[Pakpak]

Please do not mislead people. In 2013 PMLN got 15 million votes while PTI got only 7 millions.

PTI got 7.6, PMLN got 14.8.

My point still stands, PTI was comfortably the second biggest party then and now its certified after PPP's implosion. Hence its comparisons with a one city party in India are meaningless.

 

[Syed1]

Please do not mislead people. In 2013 PMLN got 15 million votes while PTI got only 7 millions.

And what about MQM?

 

[Pakpak]

being a trainee doctor in one of tertiary care hospital in kpk i know what thay have done in health..95% of BHUs have doctor now getting 130 k salary most of which were without dovtors in 2013..they have employed 3 thousand fresh medical officers in perephral areas this month,,,,,,
salary has been increaesd and kpk doctors including trainees are the highest paid in pak...
.insaf card,mti act and the list is lenghty..and most importantly effective vaccination.. whic was missing earlier....
u dont see that measles outbreak now.....they have to do more beacuse the health system is so much falwd that they have to work out of their skins.
..the culture has been developed which will take time to change ..believe me they are still facing ressistence for some good work but they can do it....and dont believe these servya in fact it is the first time kpk govmnt has started annual audit and 2 consecutive years of this audit will tell us that what has been improved..previously no such system was there so u cant compare..

Thank you for your post.

It will fly over Nawaz's Indian lovers and PMLN trolls I am afraid.

 

[Pakpak]

And what about MQM?

MQM still has supporters after being led by the treasonous and murderous swines horde for a decade? No wonder brother Alamgeer appeared a bit salty.

Infact MQM is perfect comparison with AAP one city party, though thankfully people of Karachi have rejected it now and these morons now under the guise of a political party appear rudderless.

 

[Alamgeer]

PTI got 7.6, PMLN got 14.8.

My point still stands, PTI was comfortably the second biggest party then and now its certified after PPP's implosion. Hence its comparisons with a one city party in India are meaningless.

PMLN got 14.8 and pti 6.9 and yes pti was second largest party in terms of votes but PPP got more seats than Pti. PPP won 2008 inspite of not winning Punjab bcoz PPP got enough seats in Sindh. Sindh has more general NA seats than KPK. Pti has absolutely no chance in Sindh. I think this time around PPP will maintain its position in Sindh while in Punjab PMLn will lose some seats but over all PMLn still will be the biggest party. A coalition govt in Centre. PMLN + PPP OR PTI + PPP

 

[Pakpak]

PMLN got 14.8 and pti 6.9 and yes pti was second largest party in terms of votes but PPP got more seats than Pti. PPP won 2008 inspite of not winning Punjab bcoz PPP got enough seats in Sindh. Sindh has more general NA seats than KPK. Pti has absolutely no chance in Sindh. I think this time around PPP will maintain its position in Sindh while in Punjab PMLn will lose some seats but over all PMLn still will be the biggest party. A coalition govt in Centre. PMLN + PPP OR PTI + PPP

I am quoting wikipedia, which says PTI got 7.6 million votes.

 

[DRsohail]

Thank you for your post.

It will fly over Nawaz's Indian lovers and PMLN trolls I am afraid.

hahha yes...kpk has 36% budget allocated to health and education...

 

[DRsohail]

pti got 7.8 million votes ..

 

[PakLFC]

I don't even see him as PM. There are many corrupt politicians in his party as well who need to be taken to task. Credit to him for exposing Nawaz Sharif but politically he is still highly naive and immature.

 

[Waseem]

I don't even see him as PM. There are many corrupt politicians in his party as well who need to be taken to task. Credit to him for exposing Nawaz Sharif but politically he is still highly naive and immature.

FAR easier being an arm chair critic than actually doing something against an extremely corrupt system. Yes there are compromises that need to be made to achieve bigger goals and i can't find one leader who achieved anything without making those compromises, these are well known constraints.

Yes it will be an issue if he tries to save his party members from any sort of enquiry from an independent institution.

 

[A.A.Z]

I think I heard Imran say if he doesn't succeed in 2018 he will handover PTI to his successor.

Yeah he'll retire from politics just like he did from cricket in 1987 but came back to win it all in 1992.

 

[Slog]

PTI's Road to the Federal Government in 2018 - Is there a realistic chance?

In the Pakistan general elections, 272 seats are contested for with the rest assigned for women and minorities according to the proportion of seats won

Of these in the 2013 elections, PML-N won 147 seats (incl. independents who joined it - otherwise 129), PTI has 28 and PPP 31

The breakdown of the 272 seats is as such:
Punjab - 148 (Around 45 in South Punjab)
Sindh - 61
KPK - 35
Rest of the country (incl Islamabad) - 28

PML-N won a whopping 132 of the seats in Punjab. PPP came in 2nd with six seats and PTI third with 3 seats in Punjab.

In KPK, PML-N won 6 seats while PTI won 17 seats

Whereas in Sindh, PTI and PML-N won 1 seat each with majority of rest going to PPP and MQM

So it is clear Punjab is the real key.

Now the question is what is a realistic path for PTI to win enough seats to form a government.

To form a government, a coalition needs around 50% of the seats.

PML-N in 2013 won 54% of the seats and most primarily from Punjab and formed the government easily

But its very clear that PTI cannot win that many seats to form such a government.

So a way to go by this is to see how PPP formed the government in 2008. In 2008, PPP formed the govt by winning 33% seats (89 seats) by forming coalition governments with a party with another sizable portion. For eg in its alliance with PML-Q, the 2 parties combined their seats to form a total share of 51% seats and form a federal government

This seems to be the only way forward for PTI.

In 2013 it won about 10% of the seats.

However to form the government it needs atleast 35% of the seats imo. Once it has that it can move towards attracting independents and forming a coalition.

So in effect it needs 95 seats. Where will these 95 seats come from?

For me this has to happen (Seats to be won by PTI / Total seats in region)

KPK - 23/35
Sindh 5/61
Rest 10/28
South Punjab - 25/45
Punjab - 20/103

I honestly this this is as good as it will get. Unfortunately even then the 90 seat mark isnt broken.

 

[Syed1]

PTI will have to capture most of South Punjab and some parts of North Punjab, nobody can crack central Punjab (unfortunately that is where the majority of the seats are and is a reason why Punjab needs to be split into two or more administrative units).

In Sindh they need to find some big name possibly someone with a Bhutto sirname to win atleast 10-20 seats in interior. Karachi unfortunately they will only win 1 or 2 seats in the affluent areas, they would have to form coalition with MQM or whoever wins Karachi.

Pretty sure they have KPK in the bag, they may even increase their tally from last time and win around 25 seats.

Baluchistan is usually contested by independents or parties that align with whoever forms the federal government. So for now that province shouldn't be a focus in terms of electoral politics.


One important factor is that FATA might be merged into KPK and this will further benefit PTI.

 

[WebGuru]

All depends on Panama case now because if it goes against Nawaz thn PTI and IK will cash it most and it will be seen as a victory for them. PPP and all other parties stayed away and made it look like PTI vs PMLN. So PTI really need this wave before GE 2018 to get the swing votes.

PTI is strong in North and South Punjab but for Central Punjab they need to work really hard... If we talk about city by city performance thn interestingly their biggest vote bank and probably most won seats in Punjab are in the capital Lahore (Central Punjab) but outside Lahore they are really weak in Central Punjab.

PTI got 4 MPAs and 1 MNA in Lahore and also came very close to winning another MNA seat in by elections. And there is also a stay order on another Lahore MNA seat (Kh Saad)

 

[Slog]

People of Punjab need to look beyond their ethnicity and vote for Pakistan. They are the majority by some margin. There is no need for the slave mentality

 

[Pakpak]

People of Punjab need to look beyond their ethnicity and vote for Pakistan. They are the majority by some margin. There is no need for the slave mentality

I don't think they vote for ethnicity (not the majority of them anyway), whenever PPP won they got a healthy dose of vote from Punjab as well and BB was not Punjabi. Its feudalism. All these rural votes are received this way where people vote on who their land-owners tell them to.

Remove feudalism and we'd get somewhere.

 

[PakLFC]

FAR easier being an arm chair critic than actually doing something against an extremely corrupt system. Yes there are compromises that need to be made to achieve bigger goals and i can't find one leader who achieved anything without making those compromises, these are well known constraints.

Yes it will be an issue if he tries to save his party members from any sort of enquiry from an independent institution.

Being an arm chair critic is fa better then agreeing with IK all the time just to please Pak society. IK simply wants to come in to power, he will be more of a dictator then anything else. Pak needs a temporary government to clean all the filth before elections take place otherwise the same people will return. PTI is an Imran Khan fan club, without him the whole thing would collapse within days. Naz Baloch is the latest one to leave this IK fan club.

 

[PakLFC]

No. PTI will not form the next government alone. That is a good thing otherwise IK will hand Azaad Kashmir over to Bharat in the name of making peace. Idiot!

 

[Waseem]

In the Pakistan general elections, 272 seats are contested for with the rest assigned for women and minorities according to the proportion of seats won

Of these in the 2013 elections, PML-N won 147 seats (incl. independents who joined it - otherwise 129), PTI has 28 and PPP 31

The breakdown of the 272 seats is as such:
Punjab - 148 (Around 45 in South Punjab)
Sindh - 61
KPK - 35
Rest of the country (incl Islamabad) - 28

PML-N won a whopping 132 of the seats in Punjab. PPP came in 2nd with six seats and PTI third with 3 seats in Punjab.

In KPK, PML-N won 6 seats while PTI won 17 seats

Whereas in Sindh, PTI and PML-N won 1 seat each with majority of rest going to PPP and MQM

So it is clear Punjab is the real key.

Now the question is what is a realistic path for PTI to win enough seats to form a government.

To form a government, a coalition needs around 50% of the seats.

PML-N in 2013 won 54% of the seats and most primarily from Punjab and formed the government easily

But its very clear that PTI cannot win that many seats to form such a government.

So a way to go by this is to see how PPP formed the government in 2008. In 2008, PPP formed the govt by winning 33% seats (89 seats) by forming coalition governments with a party with another sizable portion. For eg in its alliance with PML-Q, the 2 parties combined their seats to form a total share of 51% seats and form a federal government

This seems to be the only way forward for PTI.

In 2013 it won about 10% of the seats.

However to form the government it needs atleast 35% of the seats imo. Once it has that it can move towards attracting independents and forming a coalition.

So in effect it needs 95 seats. Where will these 95 seats come from?

For me this has to happen (Seats to be won by PTI / Total seats in region)

KPK - 23/35
Sindh 5/61
Rest 10/28
South Punjab - 25/45
Punjab - 20/103

I honestly this this is as good as it will get. Unfortunately even then the 90 seat mark isnt broken.

Nice analysis Slog!

I think best case scenario is (Considering Panama decision against Sharifs):

KPK - 25/35 (Impossible if PMLN, JUIF, ANP form an alliance)
Sindh 5/61
Rest 8/28
South Punjab - 20/45
Punjab - 35/103 (Very much possible with few more electables likely to join if Sharif finally gets exposed).

~93 seats in total which will make it very much possible to form a government with alliances.

PTI will need to make further compromises and form an alliance with parties they consider lesser evil or whoever agrees to work with PTI on it's terms. Ideally there is no not a single party that i want them to form an alliance with you will be an absolute fool to ignore ground reality.

Worst case scenario (If Panama case verdict is grey with minimal impact on PMLN leadership):

KPK - 15/35 (If PMLN, JUIF, ANP form an alliance)
Sindh 2/61
Rest 2/28
South Punjab - 10/45
Punjab - 11/103

~40 seats in total which will make it impossible to form any government

 

[moghul]

No chance in Punjab

You could put a pole in a Punjab pind and say that this pole is from Nawaz Sharif's party, and that pole will win the election

Its an insult to Punjab and simply not true. Ik will win more seats in Punjab than NS , this time, mainly due to huge support in urban areas.

 

[moghul]

I'm from Lahore, as per my information, PTI will win a narrow victory in Punjab.

 

[Waseem]

People of Punjab need to look beyond their ethnicity and vote for Pakistan. They are the majority by some margin. There is no need for the slave mentality

I don't agree with this Slog, have never heard anyone voting for Nawaz Sharif because he is Punjabi (he is Kashmiri anyway). I think PPP would have never come to power thrice if people in Punjab voted on the basis of ethnicity. It's lot more to do with feudalism, thana/kachehry culture, caste and shiny projects. One thing Nawaz Sharif has done which Zardari failed to do is mega projects. PPP would have done FAR better in 2013 if Zardari had completed just ONE mega project (even if it involved corruption). Most of their mega projects aren't necessarily beneficial for a lot of people but they do get excited seeing DEVELOPMENT.
As for feudals, influencials etc, they always tilt towards STRONG party likely to win elections, this is the reason PMLQ was formed within couple of months and PMLN was totally destroyed when Musharaff took over.

 

[saadibaba]

I stopped listening to pundits long time ago. PTI was supposed to win the election last time around as well and look what happened. They were getting huge crowds during Jalsa's, they had all the momentum but still, it did not materialized into winning. I am not sure all can be blamed for rigging as well.

Was it lack of experience, lack of one on one hard core politicking which appears to be the key in rural areas. Whatever it was, PTI has had enough experience now. They were always going to be competitive in Punjab and with this whole Panamagate thing, its hard to believe how they could lose the next election.

Karachi is out of MQM's control now and should be there for the taking as well. KPK should stay with them. Voters of Punjab especially central and north are capable of swaying. They voted for PPP at one point in time as well. PTI should be able to turn them around towards them this time around. So the answer to the question, can Imran Khan win the election is a resounding yes in my humble opinion.

 

[Square Drive]

Insha'Allah. Naya Pakistan will well and truly be in progress starting next year.

A few years late, but better late than never.

 

[Rikaz]

If nawaz runs again he will win with an even bigger margin. If you win punjab you win Pakistan.

 

[corneredtiger85292]

Insha'Allah PTI will win the next general elections and Naya Pakistan will be realized.

For those who think Imran Khan cannot win the next general elections, he has been told every step of the way by most people that he could not acheive many things, he proved all of them wrong, he will in regard to this too.

Pakistan needs Imran Khan to come to power if it stands any chance of progression. Millions of the nations awaams prayers are with him

 

[saeedhk]

I predict PTI to win even more seats in KPK. I expect them to win 20 to 25 seats from KPK. The PTI has made great strides in reforming and improving the education, health and law enforcement areas.

Overall, expect the PTI to win around 60 to 70 seats with the PML-N winning 90 seats.

 

[Pakpak]

I predict PTI to win even more seats in KPK. I expect them to win 20 to 25 seats from KPK. The PTI has made great strides in reforming and improving the education, health and law enforcement areas.

Overall, expect the PTI to win around 60 to 70 seats with the PML-N winning 90 seats.

There is no way PMLN is winning 90 seats, especially if reports of the party being split into 3-4 pieces is true. If Nawaz goes there is no PMLN( N for Nawaz) left, the party will be broken into Nisar, Shehbaz led blocs and possibly even more blocs and even then Shehbaz is a goner after Nawaz's case finishes. I see a PMLQ like situation where all these leaches jump ship.

Just like Benazir's death and later Zardari's cartoots pretty much ended PPP it will be the same for these lot.

 

[Square Drive]

Surely, surely now?

 

[Pakistanian]

Really likely

 

[Nostalgic]

With the First-Past-The-Post system, there's a definite possibility now. If PMLN fragments, which is quite possible if Nawaz isn't able to call the shots from the outside, and senior members think it is in their best interests to break rank, and if they can't coalesce around one figure, the PMLN vote bank will be split. Since you only need a plurality and not a majority in a constituency, we may be in for a change next year.

 

[MMHS]

If the election happens this year (within next 5 months), I believe he has the best chance.

I had little interest in it & I wasn't aware of what actually happened at Islamabad today, but on my way back home, bought grocery from a halal shop, where few Pakistani works - they are absolutely crazy happy - so happy that they are discussing it with random customers & these people are from Lahore long back, Nawaz's own City. If this is what's the mass reaction in PAK, there could be a mass coup.

Besides, I think PML-N could break into pieces once Miah Sharif is not at the helm - in such cases, what happens is that many genuine popular MPs (who have won under PMLN banner), and has a chance to win on individual popularity, try to distance themselves from the poisoned chalice. It's like flood water - just one crack on the bank, the floodgate o[ens. Within few days, most of these MPs will leave PMLN - most of them might join Imran, because that makes it easier for them to retain their seat. If he can do selective horse trading (because mass recruit will create frustration among his loyal people who had been preparing for this election for long), in his weaker seats - he can reach 125+ seats. Don't think, Khan will form a coalition Govt. with PPP or PMLN - may be few smaller parties & Independent MPs, hence he'll need 120+ own MP.

If the election happen in due time, that's about 14 months later, I think PMLN & PPP will regroup, because memory of mass people is like gold fish. Imran is 64, don't think, if he doesn't win this time, he'll ever be PAK's PM.

Someone, please correct me, if I am wrong.

 

[Rayyman]

Surely, surely now?

Really likely

I hope he does. Especially with PPP and PMNL being the other two major options.

 

[WebGuru]

If the election happens this year (within next 5 months), I believe he has the best chance.

I had little interest in it & I wasn't aware of what actually happened at Islamabad today, but on my way back home, bought grocery from a halal shop, where few Pakistani works - they are absolutely crazy happy - so happy that they are discussing it with random customers & these people are from Lahore long back, Nawaz's own City. If this is what's the mass reaction in PAK, there could be a mass coup.

Besides, I think PML-N could break into pieces once Miah Sharif is not at the helm - in such cases, what happens is that many genuine popular MPs (who have won under PMLN banner), and has a chance to win on individual popularity, try to distance themselves from the poisoned chalice. It's like flood water - just one crack on the bank, the floodgate o[ens. Within few days, most of these MPs will leave PMLN - most of them might join Imran, because that makes it easier for them to retain their seat. If he can do selective horse trading (because mass recruit will create frustration among his loyal people who had been preparing for this election for long), in his weaker seats - he can reach 125+ seats. Don't think, Khan will form a coalition Govt. with PPP or PMLN - may be few smaller parties & Independent MPs, hence he'll need 120+ own MP.

If the election happen in due time, that's about 14 months later, I think PMLN & PPP will regroup, because memory of mass people is like gold fish. Imran is 64, don't think, if he doesn't win this time, he'll ever be PAK's PM.

Someone, please correct me, if I am wrong.

Most of what you said is correct. Winning Punjab is most important in Pakistan politics and that's what PMLN got in their pocket because 148 out of 272 National Assembly seat are in Punjab while the rest of 124 seats are in Sindh+FATA+Balochistan+Islamabad+KP. So he need the help of electables in Punjab if they jump PMLN ship just like they have been doing in past switching parties and he also need splits in PMLN to increase his chances.

 

[Pakistanian]

With the First-Past-The-Post system, there's a definite possibility now. If PMLN fragments, which is quite possible if Nawaz isn't able to call the shots from the outside, and senior members think it is in their best interests to break rank, and if they can't coalesce around one figure, the PMLN vote bank will be split. Since you only need a plurality and not a majority in a constituency, we may be in for a change next year.

can you tell us more about this first-past-the-post thing, excuse the dumb the question lol. I'm just curious.

 

[Nostalgic]

can you tell us more about this first-past-the-post thing, excuse the dumb the question lol. I'm just curious.

First-Past-The-Post, where a candidate wins a constituency by getting a plurality, not necessarily the majority of the vote. For instance, if said candidate bags, say, 35% of the vote, and the other 65% is split between all the other candidates. So 65% voted for someone else, but the candidate with 35% wins.

It doesn't always happen, because often the contest is between two major parties. But we've seen in the past where one party's vote is split, for instance when a popular leader isn't given the party's nomination, decides to run as an independent, and takes away enough of their party's vote from the candidate who did get the party's nomination, resulting in potentially handing victory to a third candidate.

In the current scenario, if the PMLN vote is split in this manner, it will benefit the other parties. Perhaps not in every constituency, but in enough constituencies to change the electoral map.

 

[PakLFC]

I don't think IK will win the next election. He will however have a major say in who does somehow influencing the overall decision.