I agree that declaring after 50 overs is far fetched but the fundamentals of Junaids' is correct. I do think if you can score briskly you shouldn't exactly bat the whole day because you would be wasting an invaluable opportunity to bowl under the lights with a brand new pink ball and subsequently reduce the opposition to perhaps 50/5 (say after 15 overs).
Also, If we cast our minds back to Pakistan's 1st innings during their previous D/N test in Australia, do you recall the colossal task their batsman had in those conditions?
There is no doubt that the first half of the post-dinner session is the toughest time to bat in a D/N Test, but you cannot bet on it by settling for a below-par total. If your strategy is only going to work if the opposition lineup collapses in a heap, then it is not a valid strategy.
9/10 times, you will not be reducing the other team to 50/5 no matter how strong your bowling is and how weak their batting is. Besides, Pakistan has a weak bowling attack and its best chance of winning the Test is by batting first and putting a formidable total on the board, which is what we failed to do in Brisbane.
This theory of declaring on day 1 after 50 overs can work for a team like Australia against Pakistan, but what would work even better? Australia declaring after 50 overs on day 2 after putting a formidable total after 140 overs.
It won’t be easier to bat in the twilight on day 2, but in this case, you will have 450 runs on the board instead of 250. If you reduce the opposition to 100/4 in the post-dinner session after scoring 450, you have pretty much won the game.
However, if you reduce them to 100/4 after declaring on 250 on day 1, the game is still in the balance because one partnership in the first session on day 2 can negate your first innings score.
Unless you have the bowling attack than can consistently knock 5 down in the post-dinner session every game - which no team can - this strategy will backfire more often than not.
Junaids’ theories are fascinating but the problem is that they are not backed by evidence. In fact, most of the evidence disproves his theories that are based on assumptions. For example, the first Test disproved his theory that you have to pick a spinner for his batting in Australia.
Yasir scored 68 runs over two innings at an average of 34, but it meant nothing when he conceded 205 runs at an economy of 4.20. Someone like Shadab wouldn’t average a lot more than 34 against this attack, but he would also concede runs at a near-ODI rate because of his poor control. In Australia, the most important quality of a spinner is his economy rate and not the runs that he will score.
Much like his spinner theory, his D/N Test theory is also not backed by evidence. I can confidently state that any team that utilizes this strategy will find itself on the losing side more often than not.
In fact, the fundamentals of his theory are disproved by the D/N Test results so far:
- Australia beat New Zealand in the first ever D/N Test after New Zealand batted first and were dismissed for 200 odd runs after 65 overs.
- Pakistan beat West Indies by scoring 580/3 in the first innings.
- Australia beat South Africa after Faf declared on 250/9 after 76 overs.
- Australia beat Pakistan by scoring 429 in the first innings.
- England inflicted an innings defeat on West Indies by scoring 514 in the first innings.
- Sri Lanka beat Pakistan by scoring 482 runs in the first innings.
- Australia beat England by scoring 442 runs in the first innings.
- Sri Lanka beat West Indies after West Indies were dismissed for 204 in 69 overs in the first innings.
- Australia beat Sri Lanka after Sri Lanka were dismissed for 144 in 56 overs in the first innings.
These are all the D/N Tests so far except the following three: South Africa vs Zimbabwe, New Zealand vs England and India vs Bangladesh. I ignored them because of the humongous gap between South Africa and Zimbabwe, and the fact that England and Bangladesh were dismissed for 54 and 106 in their first innings respectively.
12 D/N Tests so far, and there is not a shred of evidence that a team that declares at a below par total on day 1 will end up winning the match. In fact, we have noticed the following - every single team has lost the match after getting all out on day 1 for a below par total, and every single team has won after posting a big total in the first innings.
The only time a captain declared on day 1 was Faf against Australia, but his team were 9 down and he lost the game comfortably. Hence, Junaids’ fundamentals are woefully off the mark.
The fundamentals of winning both red ball and pink ball Tests are identical - win the toss, get a big total in the first innings and put the opposition to bat in the last session of day 2 and take quick wickets by capitalizing on scoreboard pressure.
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