General Election 2017 - Round 2, November (December?) 2017

[Robert]

Counter-intuitively, as no new houses have been built yet, people are not waiting and the price is inflating further.

 

[Robert]

Lib Dems gain a seat from Labour in Gosport, and hold in Tandridge with an enhanced majority.

 

[Robert]

And another gain from Tories in Maidstone.

 

[James]

So the DUP have threatened the Tories with withdrawal from their grubby backroom deal over NI issues already, less than 6 months into this supposedly 2+ year commitment.

We need another election. I think we would get a clear result now. The country is split exactly down the middle and needs to decide who negotiates Brexit: is it Labour, or is it the Tories.

 

[Robert]

I think there will be another hung Parliament. Labour might manage to form a government in Coalition with the Scot Nats and Lib Dems but that would mean an end to Brexit.

 

[s28]

Labour 8% ahead

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">"It's absurd."<br><br>Yep. <a href="https://t.co/eV8J8lXpak">pic.twitter.com/eV8J8lXpak</a></p>— Momentum (@PeoplesMomentum) <a href="https://twitter.com/PeoplesMomentum/status/937113093439664128?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">3 December 2017</a></blockquote>
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[James]

Labour would get at least 45% of the popular vote if there was an election tomorrow.

The SNP are an ideologically bankrupt fad organisation that will continue to shrink over time, meanwhile there would be tactical voting from plenty of Liberals and Greens ( except [MENTION=7774]Robert[/MENTION] ) in favour of an already popular Labour Party. Given how blatantly the country could do with a change, Labour would also attract many of the floating centrist voters.

Just like with the Republicans in the US, there will always be a solid 35% or so who vote Tory because conservative policies look after their daily interests - but all other votes are up for grabs at the moment.

 

[Yossarian]

Labour 8% ahead

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">"It's absurd."<br><br>Yep. <a href="https://t.co/eV8J8lXpak">pic.twitter.com/eV8J8lXpak</a></p>— Momentum (@PeoplesMomentum) <a href="https://twitter.com/PeoplesMomentum/status/937113093439664128?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">3 December 2017</a></blockquote>
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Tories, if they had any sense, would call an election immediately, hope they don't lose too many seats, but just enough for Labour to gets into power with the help of SNP and the Liberals.

With less than 18 months to go before the 29th March 2019 Brexit deadline, there's clearly not enough time to do any meaningful negotiations/agreements with the EU even without the chaos of Brexit itself. Labour and not the Tories will get all the blame, and the Tories can then stroll back into power at the next election.

Whereas if Brexit keeps going as it is looking, it's going to be an even bigger disaster than anybody thought (USA/Trump doing a 'special deal' with the UK? ), and the Tories are not just going to get all the blame, they are going to self-destruct and break off into tiny pieces.

 

[s28]

Lovely jubbly.

Robert do you never ask yourself why the Lib Dems are 39% behind Labour in the polls ?

 

[Donal Cozzie]

So the DUP have threatened the Tories with withdrawal from their grubby backroom deal over NI issues already, less than 6 months into this supposedly 2+ year commitment.

We need another election. I think we would get a clear result now. The country is split exactly down the middle and needs to decide who negotiates Brexit: is it Labour, or is it the Tories.

The DUP would be committing suicide in collapsing the government. They lose whatever power they hold and a pro United Ireland Corbyn strolls into office and with Direct Rule likely immediately legislates for same sex marriage, Irish Language Act etc while the DUP can do nothing but whinge and moan.

 

[James]

Tories starting to do a bit better in the polls again.

 

[Yossarian]

Tories starting to do a bit better in the polls again.

When were these polls taken?
The Tory Brexiteers were patting themselves on the back after last week's 'agreement' over phase one of the Brexit divorce discussions. Even more so when no. 10 started sending letters to MP's saying 'don't worry about this 'alignment' business in the agreement, it means nothing'.

And to top it all, David Davis saying on Sunday that they're just words, not legally enforceable, completely meaningless. ie It was just a ruse to get past the first post.

But by Monday morning and all day yesterday, he was furiously backtracking, and phoning up everyone in the EU saying he didn't mean what he said on Sunday.

That hasn't sunk in yet to the Brexiteers. Wait until they realise how this 'alignment' that has been agreed means that Britain is effectively locking itself into the customs union and single market option. ie effectively still a member of the EU, but without a seat at the table.

 

[James]

Polls were taken last week and this weekend, starting to come out now.

 

[Robert]

Tories starting to do a bit better in the polls again.

Due to progress on Brexit. They look more competent.

But if Mr Corbyn said he would keep us in the Single Market, Labour would have a ten point lead.

 

[Markhor]

Another minister bites the dust.

 

[Yossarian]

Another minister bites the dust.

May had the conclusions of the investigation many days ago. She just waited until the last PMQ's of the year were out of the way and MP's were on the way home for Xmas before announcing his firing, hoping everything will be done and dusted by the time they come back in the New Year..

 

[James]

May had the conclusions of the investigation many days ago. She just waited until the last PMQ's of the year were out of the way and MP's were on the way home for Xmas before announcing his firing, hoping everything will be done and dusted by the time they come back in the New Year..

Agree, quite a clever move by her standards. By lunchtime today it was not even the top story any longer.

 

[Robert]

The OP prediction didn’t come true.

I can see this zombie Government lurching on for years.

 

[s28]

They can lurch on, own Brexit and then the Tories out of power for a generation. A prospect which hurts that curious and vanishingly small minority who are Liberals and Hard Remainers.

 

[Robert]

They can lurch on, own Brexit and then the Tories out of power for a generation. A prospect which hurts that curious and vanishingly small minority who are Liberals and Hard Remainers.

Sure, that is probably the Labour goal. Do nothing while the Tories louse Brexit up and take the blame for economic ruin.

Surely a distrusted Tory Party helps the centre, though - LDs had 60 MPs under Kennedy when the Tories were at a low ebb (though his LDs were to the left of New Labour).

 

[Yossarian]

The OP prediction didn’t come true.

I can see this zombie Government lurching on for years.

You're a bit late with that. Almost 3 months late.

This is what I posted on the 1st October.

Looks like my predictions in the OP are going to be out by a few months. Although, technically speaking, if there was an election before the end of December (and there's still time for that), the prediction will still hold.

However, I sincerely hope this sentence from the post turns out to a correct prediction.

I however fervently hope that there isn't a General Election until late 2018/ early 2019 at the earliest. By then it would have (finally) hit home to the Brexiteers as to how ignorant and thick headed they were believing all the lies told to them by the Tories.

 

[Robert]

The Brexiteers, or a lot of them, have taken an emotional decision and no amount of debate will alter them.

 

[Yossarian]

The Brexiteers, or a lot of them, have taken an emotional decision and no amount of debate will alter them.

Until the realities start to hit them personally. Like those losing their jobs as a direct consequence of Brexit (- perhaps because their employer relied upon certain aspects of doing business within the EU, which change due to Brexit. Or a motor manufacturer and/or supplier decides to relocate to an EU country as a direct consequence of Brexit. I'm sure you can think of numerous other examples.)

It is a fact that the industrial areas of the country most likely to be adversely affected by Brexit are the very same regions that voted heavily in favour of Brexit.

An example being Nissan's long term plans for it's Sunderland car plant depending upon the final trade deal (or not) between the UK and the EU. Don't forget, it's not just those who work at the car plant who are potentially affected, but all those others (from employees of suppliers to local traders, even shop assistants in local shops) that rely upon thousands of workers earning their living from working at the car plant. The same Sunderland voters who voted heavily in favour of Brexit.

A case of turkeys voting for Xmas.

 

[Yossarian]

Tories, if they had any sense, would call an election immediately, hope they don't lose too many seats, but just enough for Labour to gets into power with the help of SNP and the Liberals.


[....]

Whereas if Brexit keeps going as it is looking, it's going to be an even bigger disaster than anybody thought (USA/Trump doing a 'special deal' with the UK? ), and the Tories are not just going to get all the blame, they are going to self-destruct and break off into tiny pieces.

I'd say were not far off this prediction. Next week will tell.