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How did Pakistan's economy perform during Imran Khan's era?

Bewal Express said:
It is understandable that an uneducated population don't understand the nuances of economic policy but if they vote for the same crooks that caused the bankruptcy, then they have no sympathy from me. The Kaptaan is dealing with the mafia, it is not even a surprise that a new crisis is cooked up every week and the media mafia are then used to create the supposed crisis to create panic but IK will make Pak riyasat e madina with the education of Quran and by the help of Allah
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You are absolutely right bro that IK is facing and fighting with mafia and an army of uneducated people
 
ISLAMABAD: The federal government on Thursday worked out the impact of losses of pandemic COVID-19 virus on some sectors of the national economy and shared the initial assessment that total losses stood at the whopping figure of Rs 2.5 trillion, reported The News.

Official estimates first time shared with a selected group of reporters in the aftermath of the outbreak of coronavirus reveal that under moderate restrictions, employment loss could be up to 12 million, around 20% of the employed labour force of the country.

The total labour force in the country stood at 60-65 million and moderate estimates calculated by the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE), an affiliate of Planning Commission, showed that the lingering pandemic could result into unemployment ranging from 12 to 20 million. The PIDE had assessed that the monthly average losses of losing jobs stood at Rs180 billion to Rs260 billion, so in the worst-case scenario basis, the estimated losses could go up to Rs780 billion in the next three months. However, the government has decided to provide Rs4,000 monthly stipend to expected job losers.

The Planning Commission, under Deputy Chairman Planning Commission Dr Mohammad Jehanzeb Khan, worked out the initial losses caused by COVID-19 pandemic on a few selected sectors of the economy in consultation with ministries/divisions and international donors in more than last two-week period. These estimates have been worked out such as government-owned/department business losses, tax revenues collected by the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR), massive reduction in import and export (trade figures losses) and these estimates did not include losses on account of GDP growth rate.

The top official said it was widely believed that the impact of the virus and the severity of lockdowns on the overall economy may have a severe impact on economic performance parameters.

“We have coordinated our efforts to assess the quickly evolving situation. Initial estimates put a business loss amount over Rs450 billion for the fourth quarter (April-June) period of the current fiscal year. Please bear in mind we continue to assess the situation and information from other sectors is coming,” said the official. When asked about more details, the official sources said that these were assessed through incurring losses of PIA, Pakistan Railways and other public sector entities. They said that the Security and Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SECP) shared information that the stock market tumbled and it so far caused losses to the tune of Rs200 to 250 billion. The government’s business loss might escalate further because it did not include the overall losses on account of GDP growth and important sectors like agriculture, manufacturing and services sectors amid halting economic activities in all sphere of lives.

On the government's tax revenue side, the official said that it was expected that the FBR could see a decrease in revenue/cash outflow of around Rs600 billion alone in the fourth quarter (April-June) period of the current fiscal year. Initially, the FBR had estimated revenue losses of Rs380 billion but they revised upward their losses in the wake of additional Rs200 billion losses on account of deferment of utility bills, including electricity and gas and then release of stuck-up refunds to the tune of Rs100 billion.

The official sources said that these figures of revenue losses were shared by the FBR. However, it is not yet known that the FBR took a revised target of Rs 5.2 trillion or Rs4.8 trillion. However, the FBR sources said that the tax collection could maximum go up to Rs4.2 trillion but the possibility of Rs4.4 trillion seemed out of question.

Renowned economist Dr Hafeez A Pasha in the Shahzeb Khanzada show at Geo TV stated that the FBR could collect Rs4 trillion maximum till the end of the current fiscal year.

On the trade side, the Planning Commission’s estimates showed that there was an expected sharp slowdown in imports of up to 60pc, exports could potentially go down by up to 10% “Impact of trade contraction only on GDP could be up to 4.6% in the last quarter if combined imports and exports go down by 20pc,” the official estimates showed. This figure of 4.6% losses in GDP during the last quarter could be roughly quantified around Rs700 to Rs800 billion losses in the April-June period of FY2020 if the exchange rate in terms of the dollar versus rupee is estimated at Rs165 against the dollar. The researchers of PIDE argued that they had not yet calculated the exact figures because there was no estimation of quarterly growth figures in Pakistan. However, the Planning Commission and the PIDE are working jointly to come up with exact estimates on trade losses accounts assessed for the last quarter of the current fiscal year.

“On employment, we can assess that under moderate restrictions employment loss could be up to 12 million, around 20% of the employed labour force. Please keep in mind that the above numbers are preliminary figures and will most likely change as the situation evolves,” concluded the top official.

https://www.geo.tv/latest/280697-pakistan-economy-to-loose-25-trillion-due-to-coronavirus-report
 
Not since Jinnah has a Pakistan PM had to guide us through such difficult circumstances.

Thankfully Imran Khan is the best we've had since the Quaid, inshallah he along with those that want to see our great nation progress wil guide us through these difficult times and we will come out the other side of all this looking at a bright future.

That should be the prayers of all us Pakistanis
 
COVID-19 pushes all of Pakistan's positive developments to the side

Pakistan’s foreign currency reserves are estimated to deplete by another $3 billion to $8 billion while the currency may depreciate to Rs170 against the US dollar by June 30, according to a leading local research house.

Pakistan central bank is expected to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 11% till December 2020, while the government is likely to renegotiate loan programme with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

“The interest rates were expected to come down, the (rupee/dollar) exchange rate was anticipated to remain stable, economic activity was likely to pick up (in FY20 and onwards); but almost all that have been pushed aside by the outbreak of COVID-19,” Topline Research said in a report titled ‘COVID-19 – An event with unprecedented parallels’ Businessmen have extensively been demanding the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) to cut the rate to a single digit. Earlier, it revised down the rate by 225 basis points to 11% in the second half of the March.
Pakistan agreed to the latest IMF programme worth $6 billion in May 2019 and has received around $1.5 billion so far. “We expect industries to be operating at 40% efficiency by Jun-2020, at 70% by September 2020 and 85% by December 2020; resulting in an average production loss of 35-40% in nine-month of FY20,” it estimated.

“In FY20, we expect agriculture growth to clock in at 1.2% year-on-year (hampered by 20% year-on-year lower cotton production), industrial growth at minus 7% year-on-year (12% year-on-year lower Large Scale Manufacturing) and services growth at 2.2% year-on-year,” it said.

“It will result in Pakistan reporting 0.0-0.5% year-on-year GDP growth in FY20, wherein the worst-case scenario Pakistan’s economy can shrink by 0.5-1.0% YoY, which will possibly be the first time in Pakistan’s 72-year history. However, in FY21 we expect GDP growth to recover to 3.5%.”

The worsening health crisis and announcement of relief packages by the government have spiked its expenditures and partial closure of businesses has badly hit income.

“Pakistan’s fiscal deficit (the gap between high expenditure and low income) could shoot to 9% of GDP in FY20E and subsequently clock in at 8% of GDP in FY21F.”

Before COVID-19, the year 2020 was expected to be a ‘year of economic resurgence’ after almost three years of economic turbulence, it added.

Pakistan imposed lockdown in the third week of March, which has been extended till April 14, 2020, and “can be further extended,” the research house said.

It is anticipated that the balance of payments problems over the next 3-12 months (even though current account balance will be more than manageable) if Pakistan is unable to muster reasonable support of the IMF, multilateral agencies and friendly countries.

“We believe Pakistan will renegotiate IMF loan programme due to the extraordinary circumstance because of the COVID-19 outbreak,” Topline report said.

As a result of the balance of payments issues, “we have revised our rupee/US dollar assumption for June-2020 to Rs170 (from Rs158) and for June 2021 to Rs180 (from Rs165).”

“Falling commodities prices will help in easing inflation to 11.1% in FY20E and 8.2% in FY21F. Considering the fiscal situation and falling rupee, we have not assumed further policy rate cut in 2020,” it said.

“We believe the overall impact on the economy due to the COVID-19 will be felt across the corporate sector, in one way or the other.” However, there may be a varying level of impact. “We lower our earnings growth estimate (for listed companies) for 2020 from 16% to negative 3% in Dec-2020.”

Most of the projections for the balance of payments, at the start of the year, included the issuance of Eurobonds/Panda bonds ($2-3 billion), privatisation of RLNG power plants ($1.5-2.5 billion) and increase in foreign investment in T-bills ($1-2 billion).

“However, because of the outbreak of COVID-19, the global outlook has significantly deteriorated and almost all of the above are unlikely to be materialised shortly.”

Pakistan has already seen an outflow of almost $2 billion under foreign investment in T-Bills during the last couple of months, along with around $150 million net outflows from the stock market.

The government has approached the IMF for financial assistance under the Fund’s Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI), where media reports highlight assistance of $1.4 billion. The World Bank is also expected to give $200 million to Pakistan under emergency aid.

“Pakistan is also looking forward to reschedule debt repayments with multilateral agencies and at the same also seeking further financing of $3-4 billion,” it said.

“We expect SBP reserves to fall to $8 billion by Jun-2020, if none of the (foreign) support materialises, as debt repayments over the next three months stand at around $4 billion.”

The research house was previously expecting exports of goods to clock in at around $26 billion in FY20, which “we believe is likely to reach around $22.3 billion – resulting in a loss of $3.7 billion during March-June 2020.”

“We now expect remittances to clock in at $20.9 billion and $20.5 billion in FY20 and FY21, respectively (versus an earlier estimate of $22.7 billion and $23.1 billion),” it said.
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2191036/2-covid-19-pushes-pakistans-positive-developments-side/
 
Corona has ruined all the hard work.

But inshaAllah Pakistan will bounce back.
 
I am grateful that we have Imran Khan as our PM to lead us through this difficult period. Imagine being led by PPP and PMLN
 
Vegitto1 said:
I am grateful that we have Imran Khan as our PM to lead us through this difficult period. Imagine being led by PPP and PMLN
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imagine Bilawal as the PM..he would be crying like a child..the army would have taken over by now or the PPP would have let them handle things like they did in 2008.
 
Coronavirus: Pakistan may fall into recession, says World Bank report

South Asia is on course for its worst economic performance in 40 years, with countries likely to record their worst growth performance due to the coronavirus pandemic, the World Bank said on Sunday.

According to a report by the World Bank, Pakistan, Afghanistan and the Maldives are expected to fall into recession.

"Pakistan, which has already experienced low growth rates in recent years, could well fall into a recession. With 1.8% population growth, that would imply a painful decline in per-capita income," noted the global lender.

India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Afghanistan and other smaller nations, which have 1.8 billion people and some of the planet's most densely populated cities, have so far reported relatively few coronavirus cases but experts fear they could be the next hotspots.

"South Asia finds itself in a perfect storm of adverse effects. Tourism has dried up, supply chains have been disrupted, demand for garments has collapsed and consumer and investor sentiments have deteriorated," said the World Bank report.

Read also: Pakistan seeking World Bank's help in fight against coronavirus

Worst hit will be the Maldives where the collapse of tourism will result in gross domestic output contracting by as much as 13%, while Afghanistan could shrink by as much as 5.9% and Pakistan by up to 2.2%.

The South Asian region, comprising eight countries, is likely to show economic growth of 1.8% to 2.8% this year, the World Bank said in its South Asia Economic Focus report, well down from the 6.3% it projected six months ago.

India’s economy, the region’s biggest, is expected to grow 1.5% to 2.8% in the fiscal year that started on April 1. The World Bank has estimated it will grow 4.8% to 5% in the fiscal year that ended on March 31.

“The green shoots of a rebound that were observable at the end of 2019 have been overtaken by the negative impacts of the global crisis,” the World Bank report said.

Other than India, the World Bank forecast that Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan and Bangladesh will also see a sharp fall in their economic growth.

Read also: World Bank, IMF urge debt relief for poorest countries hit by coronavirus

Measures taken to counter the coronavirus have disrupted supply chains across South Asia, which has recorded more than 13,000 cases so far — still lower than many parts of the world.

The global lender noted that in Pakistan the price of wheat flour increased by nearly 13% due to supply-side interruptions.

"Traders also reported increases in the prices of pulses, cooking oil prices and sugar," said the global money lender.

The report noted that that there is a danger that food prices will spike under the current circumstances.

"That would be extremely worrisome as it threatens food security for people at the lower end of the income distribution," said the bank.

India’s lockdown of 1.3 billion people has also left millions out of work, disrupted big and small businesses and forced an exodus of migrant workers from the cities to their homes in villages.

In the event of prolonged and broad national lockdowns, the report warned of a worst-case scenario in which the entire region would experience an economic contraction this year.

To minimise short-term economic pain, the WB called for countries in the region to announce more fiscal and monetary steps to support unemployed migrant workers, as well as debt relief for businesses and individuals.

India has so far unveiled a $23 billion economic plan to offer direct cash transfers to millions of poor people hit by its lockdown. In Pakistan, the government has announced a $6 billion plan to support the economy.

“The priority for all South Asian governments is to contain the virus spread and protect their people, especially the poorest who face considerable worse health and economic outcomes,” said senior World Bank official Hartwig Schafer.

https://www.geo.tv/latest/282379-wo...ears-pakistan-expected-to-fall-into-recession
 
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Before the coronavirus, can anyone give a detailed, non-biased answer whether or not it is IK’s fault that the economy has been terrible under his reign?
 
ManFan said:
Before the coronavirus, can anyone give a detailed, non-biased answer whether or not it is IK’s fault that the economy has been terrible under his reign?
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The economy was bad because Nawaz sharif left it at the verge of defaulting. The new government had to go to friendly countries and also the IMF. It took PTI a year and a half to stabilise matters and now Chorona has happen. In shallah, the economy will pick up again, we may have to see hardship for another year and a half. Just need to have sabar and pull though collectively. We all need to contribute what ever we can for our country in shallah. In Khan, we trust.
 
ManFan said:
Before the coronavirus, can anyone give a detailed, non-biased answer whether or not it is IK’s fault that the economy has been terrible under his reign?
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Doesn't even have to be a detailed answer, I can summarize it in a few bullets. This is the economy that PTI government inherited:


1. Exports declined from 2013-2018, Imports doubled. Trade deficit reached $40b.

2. Current account deficit, $20b

3. Power sector circular debt Rs. 1300b and rising by Rs 40b per month

4. Internal and External debt at highest ever level with respect to GDP
 
Syed1 said:
Doesn't even have to be a detailed answer, I can summarize it in a few bullets. This is the economy that PTI government inherited:


1. Exports declined from 2013-2018, Imports doubled. Trade deficit reached $40b.

2. Current account deficit, $20b

3. Power sector circular debt Rs. 1300b and rising by Rs 40b per month

4. Internal and External debt at highest ever level with respect to GDP
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Much appreciated.
 
A report by the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa government's Planning and Development Department has revealed that as many as 1.3 million could lose their jobs if a 45-day lockdown was put in place, warning that at least 460,000 people working as daily wagers and street vendors were set to lose their employment with "immediate effect".

The report, released on Sunday, highlighted the effect of the Covid-19 pandemic on the province's economy.

While estimating layoffs caused due to the lockdown in place to stop the spread of the pandemic, the report noted that "daily wage workers, paid worker by piece rate or work performed, paid non-family apprentice and street vendors" were highly vulnerable to the economic impact of coronavirus.

The report also predicted that the growth of KP's economy would decrease from 3.73 per cent in 2019 to 2.9pc this year, while the gross domestic product (GDP) would go down from Rs13,35,942 million to Rs13,16,160m

The report also predicted that overall, some 1.3 million jobs could be lost during a 45-day lockdown. The highest losses would be seen in the transportation and storage sectors with a predicted loss of some 359,393 jobs while construction, manufacturing and wholesale sectors would also be highly affected with job losses of some 295,594, 258,664 and 216,252 respectively.

The number of jobs lost could increase even more if the lockdown was extended, the report warned, estimating that some 2.7m jobs would be lost if the lockdown was extended to a six-month period while some 4.2m jobs would be lost if the lockdown remained in place for an year.

However, the report observed that there would be "minimal impact" on the province's agricultural sector.

The report titled Coping Strategy: Mitigating Adverse Impact of Covid-19 on the Economy and Job Market in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa also laid out the provincial government's mechanisms to deal with the impact.

According to the report, some 1.5 million families in the province will benefit from the federal government's Ehsaas Cash Disbursement Programme through which they would get Rs12,000 every month.

The report voiced apprehension that the Covid-19 pandemic would also "render vulnerable" those people who do not fall under the federal government's cash distribution programme criteria. The government would therefore form a committee at the Village Council level that would identify vulnerable families who would receive Rs6,000 from the government.

Certain sectors would also be exempted from tax payments, the report said. Construction, wholesale, retail and transport sectors would be eligible to benefit from these tax exemptions.

The government would also adopt a moratorium on loan payments for three months to "allow business higher liquidity to the most affected small and medium enterprises" while "mark-up due for the quarter ending 31 March would have to be paid by 15 June instead of 15 April".

The government would also pay advance salaries to officers from grade 1 to 17 to "sustain demand" if needed.

The report added that the government would also consider deferral of payment of utility bills for three months to help support small businesses and shopkeepers.

https://www.dawn.com/news/1550529/a...f-lockdown-extended-to-45-days-kp-govt-report
 
ManFan said:
Before the coronavirus, can anyone give a detailed, non-biased answer whether or not it is IK’s fault that the economy has been terrible under his reign?
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To make meaningful economic progress Pakistan needs to develop modern industries. For modern industries it needs Western FDI.

There is a lot of worldwide competition for Western FDI and the current champ is probably Vietnam, which is progressing rapidly from poverty to a middle income country.

Pakistan already has the human talent needed to develop modern industries. Now to get Western FDI, Pakistan needs to provide investors security. For that it needs to shed its image as a base for terrorism. People like Faisal Ahmed, Syed Rizwan Farook and Tashfeen Malik cause an incalculable harm to Pakistan. IK doesn't help by going on a world tour proclaiming that a nuclear war with India is inevitable unless other countries get India to leave Kashmir.

Basically IK has done nothing to make Pakistan more attractive to Western FDI, and this shows up in the lack of growth of new industries.
 
Napa said:
To make meaningful economic progress Pakistan needs to develop modern industries. For modern industries it needs Western FDI.

There is a lot of worldwide competition for Western FDI and the current champ is probably Vietnam, which is progressing rapidly from poverty to a middle income country.

Pakistan already has the human talent needed to develop modern industries. Now to get Western FDI, Pakistan needs to provide investors security. For that it needs to shed its image as a base for terrorism. People like Faisal Ahmed, Syed Rizwan Farook and Tashfeen Malik cause an incalculable harm to Pakistan. IK doesn't help by going on a world tour proclaiming that a nuclear war with India is inevitable unless other countries get India to leave Kashmir.

Basically IK has done nothing to make Pakistan more attractive to Western FDI, and this shows up in the lack of growth of new industries.
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It's not the 1990s or the early 2000s anymore. Nationalism and right-wing populism is on the rise in the west, and it's only a matter of time before nations like the US brings back jobs to their own soil and focus more on nation-building. The days of free trade and outsourcing will unfortunately be over pretty soon. The leaders of the liberal world order and the "free world" are attacking their own institutions like the WTO and WHO which helped foster free-trade and globalism.

Poorer nations shouldn't and won't rely on foreign investments and outsourcing anymore, it's not the 1990s or the 2000s anymore. Protectionism is the future, whether we like it or not. You have to find other ways to develop.
 
AdamM97 said:
It's not the 1990s or the early 2000s anymore. Nationalism and right-wing populism is on the rise in the west, and it's only a matter of time before nations like the US brings back jobs to their own soil and focus more on nation-building. The days of free trade and outsourcing will unfortunately be over pretty soon. The leaders of the liberal world order and the "free world" are attacking their own institutions like the WTO and WHO which helped foster free-trade and globalism.

Poorer nations shouldn't and won't rely on foreign investments and outsourcing anymore, it's not the 1990s or the 2000s anymore. Protectionism is the future, whether we like it or not. You have to find other ways to develop.
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What you say may or may not be true. There are very powerful lobbies which represent corporations massive profits from outsourcing of jobs from the developed countries.

Anyway, as long as the opportunity exists, the developing nations should grab it. China has jump started its economy using Western FDI and now has financial and manufacturing muscle to survive protectionism. There are no success stories of nations getting rich following the autarky model.
 
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Pakistan's trade has benefited from the EU's GSP Plus agreement. We intend to continue working to fulfill our commitments under the 27 Int Conventions we are party to, incl 6 Human Rights Conventions, & which are part of GSP Plus agreement. These commitments are beneficial for us</p>— Imran Khan (@ImranKhanPTI) <a href="https://twitter.com/ImranKhanPTI/status/1260507857675530240?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 13, 2020</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-conversation="none" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">We have enacted a law to ensure women's right to inheritance; are committed to enforcing laws against child labour & in support of transgenders; filling in legislative gaps including on torture, protection of journalists & media professionals & our other human rights commitments.</p>— Imran Khan (@ImranKhanPTI) <a href="https://twitter.com/ImranKhanPTI/status/1260507860611497985?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 13, 2020</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-conversation="none" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Already our Green initiatives incl our Billion Tree Tsunami & our Human Rights National Action Plan have been appreciated by the EU. As our trade & economy continue to benefit from GSP Plus we are committed to furthering our human rights commitments for the benefit of our ppl.</p>— Imran Khan (@ImranKhanPTI) <a href="https://twitter.com/ImranKhanPTI/status/1260507863589490688?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 13, 2020</a></blockquote>
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Economy expected to decline by 1-1.5% this year. In April exports were down by 40% and zero yes zero cars were sold. Large scale manufacturing also down by 23%.


This is all so sad and heartbreaking if you had been following statistics month on month since PTI took over. December was a good start, then January was even better albeit with inflationary pressures. Then February was truly remarkable everything on the up and inflation declining steeply. It all went to sh_t March onwards thanks to corona. Thank you China.
 
Syed1 said:
Economy expected to decline by 1-1.5% this year. In April exports were down by 40% and zero yes zero cars were sold. Large scale manufacturing also down by 23%.


This is all so sad and heartbreaking if you had been following statistics month on month since PTI took over. December was a good start, then January was even better albeit with inflationary pressures. Then February was truly remarkable everything on the up and inflation declining steeply. It all went to sh_t March onwards thanks to corona. Thank you China.
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Surah al-Inshirah: "With Every Difficulty, There is Relief."
 
KARACHI: Moody’s has placed Pakistan’s long-term B3 ratings on review for downgrade as it expects the country to request bilateral debt service relief from G-20 creditors under the recently-announced initiative causing losses to private sector creditors.

Moody’s on Thursday said that suspension of debt service obligations to official creditors would be unlikely to have rating implications but the G-20 has called on private sector creditors to participate in the initiative on comparable terms.

The agency will assess whether Pakistan’s participation in the initiative would likely entail default on private sector debt. The country has not indicated interest in extending the debt service relief request to the private sector.

Any losses expected to arise from that participation would be consistent with a lower rating, the agency said in a press release.

The rapid spread of coronavirus, sharp deterioration in global economic outlook, and significant reduction in risk appetite are creating a severe economic and financial shock, it added.

“For Pakistan, the current shock transmits mainly through a sharp slowdown in economic activity, lower tax revenue as economic activity slows, and higher government financing needs relative to pre-coronavirus levels,” said the agency.

Moody’s expects Pakistan’s economy to contract by around one per cent in the current fiscal year, and to grow by 2-3pc in FY21 — below potential. The economic slowdown will weigh on government revenue and modestly raise spending, in turn pushing the fiscal deficit wider to 10pc of GDP.

As a result, Moody’s projects the government’s debt burden to reach around 85-90pc of GDP by June.

However, the government’s commitment to fiscal reforms, including under its 2019-22 International Monetary Fund programme, provides a crucial anchor for the continued expansion of its revenue base when economic activity gradually normalises. Overall, Moody’s expects that the debt burden will return to a downward trend after the initial shock.

The macroeconomic adjustments that have occurred over the past 18-24 months have also reduced external vulnerability risks in the face of a potentially significant shock.

Moody’s projects the current account deficit to be relatively narrow, around 2pc of GDP in this and the next fiscal year, as lower goods and oil imports offset a fall in remittances inflows. Combined with financing inflows from multilateral and bilateral official lenders, the balance of payments is likely to be broadly stable, containing pressure on the exchange rate.

Moody’s said that ongoing reforms that pointed to nascent improvement in credit fundamentals before the outbreak and financing from development partners contain the pressure on the country’s liquidity and external positions.

Concurrently, Moody’s has also placed the B3 foreign currency senior unsecured ratings for The Third Pakistan International Sukuk Co Ltd under review for downgrade.

The ratings agency said that, “for the countries that elect to seek official sector debt service relief, the initiative may also lead to the suspension of payments or renegotiation of private sector debt service obligations.” It is in this context that Moody’s has placed Pakistan’s ratings under review, in line with the rating agency’s approach globally.

During the review period, the ratings agency will assess whether Pakistan’s participation in the initiative will indeed be implemented without the private sector, consistent with the intended voluntary nature of private sector participation, or whether any losses may be expected to arise for private sector creditors that would be consistent with a lower rating.

Pakistan has not indicated any interest in extending the debt service relief to include private sector creditors.

Moody’s assesses that the main impact of the coronavirus shock is on Pakistan’s economic growth, which raises fiscal challenges and delays the government’s fiscal consolidation and debt reduction efforts. Ongoing and significant financial and technical support from development partners, as well as the effective use of monetary policy, mitigate the impact of the shock on the sovereign’s liquidity and external positions.

https://www.dawn.com/news/1557230/p...er-review-on-debt-relief-concerns-says-moodys
 
Under IK business have shrunk job losses prices increase from paper pencil to chicken and gold
 
Despite pandemic, Pakistan's FDI soars 32% in April

Multinational companies have continued to inject fresh investment into ongoing projects in different sectors of Pakistan’s economy like telecommunication, power, and chemical despite the global economic crisis sparked by the coronavirus pandemic.

Foreign direct investment (FDI) rose 32% to $133.2 million in April 2020 compared to $100.8 million in the same month of the previous year, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) reported on Monday.

Although the volume of investment stood at an eight-month low in April, “what is encouraging is that investors have continued to pour fresh capital into ongoing projects in Pakistan despite the global economic recession under Covid-19,” Overseas Investors Chamber of Commerce and Industry (OICCI) Secretary-General M Abdul Aleem remarked while talking to The Express Tribune.

Moreover, the nature of investment stands diversified. Companies from multiple countries have poured new investment, unlike Chinese firms which have been the only major investors in Pakistan in recent times.

FDI should improve in the months to come as countries are slowly lifting lockdowns in a bid to revive economic activities around the globe. Accelerating the activities, however, may remain a challenge in the absence of a coronavirus vaccine and medicines.

Cumulatively, in the first 10 months (July-April) of the current fiscal year, foreign firms injected FDI worth $2.28 billion, which was more than double the investment of around $1 billion in the same period of the previous year, according to the central bank.

Before the outbreak of Covid-19 late in February in Pakistan, foreign investors seemed poised to initiate new projects in the country. They, however, have put the projects on hold in response to the virus.

“In the recent past, some foreign companies made a new investment in food, energy, and telecom sectors in Pakistan,” Aleem said.

Country-wise FDI

Hong Kong emerged as the largest investor with net FDI of $28.4 million in April 2020, followed by the Netherlands that injected $24.5 million, the US $22.5 million, Malta $18.5 million, and the UK $10.5 million.

Cumulatively, in the first 10 months of FY20, China was the biggest investor, with FDI worth $877.8 million compared to $45.5 million in the same period of last year.

Norway stood second with $288.6 million, followed by Malta that injected $185.2 million in July-April FY20.

However, in the same period of the previous year, the UAE was the largest investor with a net investment of $159.7 million, followed by Hong Kong at $147 million, while Japan invested $95.8 million.

Sector-wise FDI

The oil and gas exploration sector attracted the largest foreign investment of $39.1 million in April 2020, followed by the financial sector that got an investment of $30.8 million, the communication sector $20 million, power sector $18.4 million, and chemical sector $14.9 million.

Cumulatively, in 10 months, power, communication, and oil and gas exploration sectors were the top three sectors that attracted significant investment.

Investment in stock market

Although foreign investors continued to remain net sellers at the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) in the first 10 months of FY20, they slowed down selling compared to the same period of last year.

They offloaded stocks worth $182.7 million in July-April FY20 compared to $408.1 million in the same period of last year, according to the central bank.
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2224412/1-despite-pandemic-pakistans-fdi-soars-32-april/
 
Abdullah719 said:
Despite pandemic, Pakistan's FDI soars 32% in April

Multinational companies have continued to inject fresh investment into ongoing projects in different sectors of Pakistan’s economy like telecommunication, power, and chemical despite the global economic crisis sparked by the coronavirus pandemic.

Foreign direct investment (FDI) rose 32% to $133.2 million in April 2020 compared to $100.8 million in the same month of the previous year, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) reported on Monday.

Although the volume of investment stood at an eight-month low in April, “what is encouraging is that investors have continued to pour fresh capital into ongoing projects in Pakistan despite the global economic recession under Covid-19,” Overseas Investors Chamber of Commerce and Industry (OICCI) Secretary-General M Abdul Aleem remarked while talking to The Express Tribune.

Moreover, the nature of investment stands diversified. Companies from multiple countries have poured new investment, unlike Chinese firms which have been the only major investors in Pakistan in recent times.

FDI should improve in the months to come as countries are slowly lifting lockdowns in a bid to revive economic activities around the globe. Accelerating the activities, however, may remain a challenge in the absence of a coronavirus vaccine and medicines.

Cumulatively, in the first 10 months (July-April) of the current fiscal year, foreign firms injected FDI worth $2.28 billion, which was more than double the investment of around $1 billion in the same period of the previous year, according to the central bank.

Before the outbreak of Covid-19 late in February in Pakistan, foreign investors seemed poised to initiate new projects in the country. They, however, have put the projects on hold in response to the virus.

“In the recent past, some foreign companies made a new investment in food, energy, and telecom sectors in Pakistan,” Aleem said.

Country-wise FDI

Hong Kong emerged as the largest investor with net FDI of $28.4 million in April 2020, followed by the Netherlands that injected $24.5 million, the US $22.5 million, Malta $18.5 million, and the UK $10.5 million.

Cumulatively, in the first 10 months of FY20, China was the biggest investor, with FDI worth $877.8 million compared to $45.5 million in the same period of last year.

Norway stood second with $288.6 million, followed by Malta that injected $185.2 million in July-April FY20.

However, in the same period of the previous year, the UAE was the largest investor with a net investment of $159.7 million, followed by Hong Kong at $147 million, while Japan invested $95.8 million.

Sector-wise FDI

The oil and gas exploration sector attracted the largest foreign investment of $39.1 million in April 2020, followed by the financial sector that got an investment of $30.8 million, the communication sector $20 million, power sector $18.4 million, and chemical sector $14.9 million.

Cumulatively, in 10 months, power, communication, and oil and gas exploration sectors were the top three sectors that attracted significant investment.

Investment in stock market

Although foreign investors continued to remain net sellers at the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) in the first 10 months of FY20, they slowed down selling compared to the same period of last year.

They offloaded stocks worth $182.7 million in July-April FY20 compared to $408.1 million in the same period of last year, according to the central bank.
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2224412/1-despite-pandemic-pakistans-fdi-soars-32-april/
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FDI this year have doubled compared to last year. Long may this trend continue inshallah.
 
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Landmark financial innovation with Rs 200 bn Sukuk issued through competitive book building at PSX. Oversubscribed by 170%, reflecting a strong market confidence in our Govt's policies. As a result govt saved Rs18 billion - savings that can now be used for welfare of the people.</p>— Imran Khan (@ImranKhanPTI) <a href="https://twitter.com/ImranKhanPTI/status/1263056961987391488?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 20, 2020</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 
Rs200bn raised from power sukuk issue

ISLAMABAD: The government on Tuesday was able to obtain long-term borrowing below the Kibor due to a significant interest from investors in the Power Energy Sukuk–II (PES).

The Rs200bn sukuk was oversubscribed to Rs339 billion, around 70 per cent above the target offer, at minus 0.10pc for six months Kibor.

However the PHL, a state-owned enterprise, approved the 10-year government guaranteed debt instrument with semi-annual profit payments for investors amounting to Rs199.96bn only. The instrument was issued to address liquidity constraints faced by the power sector.

This is the first time ever that the government has been able to borrow long term at less than the Kibor.

By raising funds in the above manner, the government saved the cost of debt by 0.88pc in comparison to the last issuance of PES-I at a cost of Kibor plus 0.8pc.

This has resulted in approximate saving of Rs17.6bn over a period of 10 years on account of debt servicing cost.

In addition, this is the first time ever that the book building mechanism for spread discovery of any debt instrument has been done through the country’s capital markets. Bidding process aimed at spread discovery in relation to six months Kibor basis on Reverse Dutch Auction method.

Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SECP) Chairman Aamir Khan said the overwhelming success of the issue with broad-based participation from diversified investor classes clearly establishes the transformative role of capital market in the economic development of the country.

He further said that the SECP is in the process of liberalising the initial public offering (IPO) regime with special focus on the debt capital market.

“Besides in the long run, having a larger investor base will help the government to successfully raise funds from the market at the most competitive rates,” SECP chairman added.

The sukuk offering will be placed for technical listing at the Pakistan Stock Exchange. “This will increase the investor base, liquidity and secondary market trading of the Sukuk, enabling the government to borrow at the most competitive rates.” Mr Khan said.

“By widening the scope of potential investors, the issuer benefits as it increases the likelihood of more accurate price discovery, while a larger group of investors will benefit from this investment opportunity.”

Unlike the Sukuk issuance by the PHL last year, investors who could participate in this issue included banks, financial institutions, companies, mutual funds, voluntary pension schemes, private funds being managed by the non-bank financial companies, insurance companies, securities brokers, funds and trusts (as defined in the Employees Contributory funds), and Individual Investors having net assets of at least Rs2 million.

Given that it is a government-backed security, such an issuance is generally considered risk free and provides stable returns in the long run. Once the security is listed, investors throughout the country or residing abroad can buy or sell units of the Sukuk on the PSX trading platform through their broker.
https://www.dawn.com/news/1558416/rs200bn-raised-from-power-sukuk-issue
 
ISLAMABAD, May 29 (Reuters) - Pakistan plans to raise $1.5 billion through Eurobonds to bridge a balance of payments gap for the financial year beginning July 1, two government officials said on Friday.

With the country’s fiscal deficit likely to rise as high as 9.4% and a shortfall in revenues due to COVID-19 economic losses, Pakistan desperately needs funds to stave off balance of payment pressure caused by dwindling foreign reserves and a current account deficit.

“Pakistan plans to launch these bonds in next fiscal year. Exact dates and amount can’t be confirmed at the moment as it depends on market situation,” an official at the finance ministry told Reuters.

Another official at Pakistan’s ministry of economic affairs said Pakistan wants to raise an estimate $1.5 billion. Both officials requested anonymity.

The Pakistani economy is likely to contract -1% to -1.5% in the current financial year, which ends in just over a month, on June 30, according to the International Monetary Fund and the country’s finance ministry.

The plan is subject to approval from Pakistan’s cabinet. Its terms would be made public at launching.

In the current financial year, Pakistan attracted over $4.4 billion in carry-trade funds through government financial instruments, including treasury bills and bonds, offering rates as high as 13%.

https://www.reuters.com/article/pak...5bln-in-eurobonds-officials-say-idUSL8N2DB21F
 
20% salary hike expected for govt. employees and pensioner (good)

Petrol prices to be retained for Jun 2020 (bad) should have reduced atleast rs. 5 /ltr.

When will the promise of cheap houses and 10million jobs be fulfilled.

Governance at its lowest ebb despite reduction in oil prices during last two months the price of commodities have not decreased :13:
PTI walking on thin ice.
 
KARACHI: For Pakistan’s residents, fiscal year 2020 was the worst year as they witnessed highest inflation in the world forcing policy makers to increase interest rate.

“Pakistan witnessed highest inflation not only in comparison with the developed economies but also with emerging economies,” said the Inflation Monitor for April issued by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP).

The SBP pushed up interest rates to cool down the inflationary pressure during the fiscal year but high rates proved counterproductive as they further increased inflation while the private sector stopped borrowing costly money hampering industrial growth and services.

January witnessed 12-year high inflation at 14.6 per cent. In response to the rising prices, the SBP rose the interest rates to 13.25pc.

However, with the emergence of coronavirus, the entire economic scenario was turned upside down as demand contraction lowered inflation forcing the SBP to cut down interest rates to 5.25pc within just three months.

The rate cut announcement came as inflation slowed down, falling to 8.2pc in May, much lower than the SBP projections for the month.

Detailed graphs accompanying the SBP’s Inflation Monitor show Pakistan’s inflation, when compared to developing economies like China, Thailand, India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, has fallen since the pandemic.

The July-May inflation for the current fiscal year slipped below to the State Bank’s earlier projection of 11pc to 10.94pc. The number is expected to drop further in June.

The government has slashed petroleum prices thrice during the two months, which drastically reduced the cost of production, transportation and finally reduced inflation.

In a televised interview, Zubair Motiwala, a known industrialist called on the government to bring down the interest rate lower than 5.25pc to boost economic activities.

Trade and industrial sectors, while demanding cuts to interest rate, also believe the economy needs additional injection of Rs3-4 trillion for full recovery.

However, with sharp economic slowdown, the revenue collection has also fallen short of target this year making further liquidity injection on such a large scale impossible for the government.

The SBP has provided relief amounting to hundreds of billions in the form of principal payments deferrals, debts rescheduling and lending on easier terms for industrial sector to avoid massive layoffs.

https://www.dawn.com/news/1561860/pakistan-saw-highest-inflation-in-the-world-during-2020-sbp
 
Never has a new government had to face so many challenges during its first term ever.

These 5 years are truly a trial by fire for Imran Khan and InshAllah he will come out untouched like the gold of a human being that he is.
 
Kianig89 said:
20% salary hike expected for govt. employees and pensioner (good)

Petrol prices to be retained for Jun 2020 (bad) should have reduced atleast rs. 5 /ltr.

When will the promise of cheap houses and 10million jobs be fulfilled.

Governance at its lowest ebb despite reduction in oil prices during last two months the price of commodities have not decreased :13:
PTI walking on thin ice.
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20% seems excessive. Not sure why that is good for the country. Definitely good for the people getting the raise.
 
MenInG said:
KARACHI: For Pakistan’s residents, fiscal year 2020 was the worst year as they witnessed highest inflation in the world forcing policy makers to increase interest rate.

“Pakistan witnessed highest inflation not only in comparison with the developed economies but also with emerging economies,” said the Inflation Monitor for April issued by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP).

The SBP pushed up interest rates to cool down the inflationary pressure during the fiscal year but high rates proved counterproductive as they further increased inflation while the private sector stopped borrowing costly money hampering industrial growth and services.

January witnessed 12-year high inflation at 14.6 per cent. In response to the rising prices, the SBP rose the interest rates to 13.25pc.

However, with the emergence of coronavirus, the entire economic scenario was turned upside down as demand contraction lowered inflation forcing the SBP to cut down interest rates to 5.25pc within just three months.

The rate cut announcement came as inflation slowed down, falling to 8.2pc in May, much lower than the SBP projections for the month.

Detailed graphs accompanying the SBP’s Inflation Monitor show Pakistan’s inflation, when compared to developing economies like China, Thailand, India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, has fallen since the pandemic.

The July-May inflation for the current fiscal year slipped below to the State Bank’s earlier projection of 11pc to 10.94pc. The number is expected to drop further in June.

The government has slashed petroleum prices thrice during the two months, which drastically reduced the cost of production, transportation and finally reduced inflation.

In a televised interview, Zubair Motiwala, a known industrialist called on the government to bring down the interest rate lower than 5.25pc to boost economic activities.

Trade and industrial sectors, while demanding cuts to interest rate, also believe the economy needs additional injection of Rs3-4 trillion for full recovery.

However, with sharp economic slowdown, the revenue collection has also fallen short of target this year making further liquidity injection on such a large scale impossible for the government.

The SBP has provided relief amounting to hundreds of billions in the form of principal payments deferrals, debts rescheduling and lending on easier terms for industrial sector to avoid massive layoffs.

https://www.dawn.com/news/1561860/pakistan-saw-highest-inflation-in-the-world-during-2020-sbp
Click to expand...

Pakistan's inflation for 2020 not the highest in the world, SBP clarifies

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">2/ For instance, Argentina, Iran, Nigeria and Turkey’s inflation has been higher. Since January, inflation in Pakistan has fallen sharply and much faster than in most other emerging markets.</p>— SBP (@StateBank_Pak) <a href="https://twitter.com/StateBank_Pak/status/1269658311495954437?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 7, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

https://www.dawn.com/news/1561980/p...20-not-the-highest-in-the-world-sbp-clarifies
 
Abdullah719 said:
Pakistan's inflation for 2020 not the highest in the world, SBP clarifies

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">2/ For instance, Argentina, Iran, Nigeria and Turkey’s inflation has been higher. Since January, inflation in Pakistan has fallen sharply and much faster than in most other emerging markets.</p>— SBP (@StateBank_Pak) <a href="https://twitter.com/StateBank_Pak/status/1269658311495954437?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 7, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

https://www.dawn.com/news/1561980/p...20-not-the-highest-in-the-world-sbp-clarifies
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Another day another fake news from Dawn
 
This pandemic has proved to be a very timely distraction from the fact that this clueless regime was sinking our economy at a rapid rate.

Now the cult-followers would argue that without this pandemic, Imran was going to make Pakistan an Asian tiger but the pandemic proved to be very costly.

Nevertheless, the truth is that this government has ruined each and everything. We have not seen any improvement or any development in any sector.

They are incompetent and inexperienced propaganda artists. That is all.
 
Mamoon said:
This pandemic has proved to be a very timely distraction from the fact that this clueless regime was sinking our economy at a rapid rate.

Now the cult-followers would argue that without this pandemic, Imran was going to make Pakistan an Asian tiger but the pandemic proved to be very costly.

Nevertheless, the truth is that this government has ruined each and everything. We have not seen any improvement or any development in any sector.

They are incompetent and inexperienced propaganda artists. That is all.
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Just like I don't go about giving medical advice and prescribing medicine, you should also not be talking about economic matters because your knowledge is nonexistent.


The dream of making Pakistan an Asian Tiger was of Nawaz Sharifs, he promised to take exports to $100b in 2018 when he took charge in 2013, instead what happened was exports remained at the same level as 2013. He promised bullet trains and international airports in every village, do we have them now?


Also as I mentioned your knowledge on economy is gully mohallah level, but let me educate you a little bit son. December, January and February saw a rapid economic revival and even economists aligned with the opposition were accepting that recovery is in progress. Then corona took its effect in March.
 
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Mamoon said:
This pandemic has proved to be a very timely distraction from the fact that this clueless regime was sinking our economy at a rapid rate.

Now the cult-followers would argue that without this pandemic, Imran was going to make Pakistan an Asian tiger but the pandemic proved to be very costly.

Nevertheless, the truth is that this government has ruined each and everything. We have not seen any improvement or any development in any sector.

They are incompetent and inexperienced propaganda artists. That is all.
Click to expand...

How long before you claim that the pandemic is an ISI conspiracy? :hasan2
 
GDP shrinks 0.38pc after industries, services sectors register negative growth

The provisional GDP growth rate for fiscal year 2020 is estimated at negative 0.38 per cent on the basis of 2.67, -2.64 and -0.59pc growth in agricultural, industrial and services sectors respectively, Special Assistant to the Prime Minister on Finance Hafeez Sheikh said on Thursday while unveiling the Pakistan Economic Survey 19-20.

While speaking to reporters, SAPM Sheikh said that the government had inherited an economy deep in debt, with depleting foreign reserves. He said that the incumbent government was looking at a potential default.

The growth seen in the past government's tenure, Sheikh said, was being achieved by taking loans from abroad and then spending it in the country.

He further revealed that growth in the agriculture sector came in at 2.6pc, but other sectors reported negative growth, industry recorded -2.64pc whie services sector recorded -3.4pc growth. Transport and communication growth also came in at -7.1pc for Jul-April 2020, he said.

Sheikh said manufacturing contracted by 22.9pc year-on-year in March 2020 due but added that "fiscal deficit was still manageable from July-March 2020 at 4pc of the GDP while last year it was 5.1pc of the GDP" in the same period.

The PM's aide said the government aimed to provide further relief to the masses by not imposing new taxes. The SAPM added that as per Prime Minister Imran Khan's vision, the masses were the "central point" of everything.

Overall tax collection by the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) grew by 10.8pc to Rs 3,300.6 billion during July-April 2020 against Rs 2,980 billion in the comparable period last year, according to the PES document. FBR tax collection for this period had initially been budgeted at Rs4,435 billion and later revised upwards to Rs4,510 billion.

"The rise in tax collection is attributed to various policy initiatives implemented at the start of FY2020 such as charging sales tax on more items at the retail price under 3rd Schedule, reinstatement of taxes on telecom services and an upward revision of tax rates on various salary slabs," the survey revealed.

In the outgoing fiscal year, Sheikh said, the government controlled state expenses.

"This was the first time, I think, in the country's history, and our primary balance — meaning our expenses were less than our earning — went into surplus."

He detailed the measures taken by the government to reduce the debts and liabilities while also providing relief to the people.

"Despite a small budget, we doubled the budget for the Ehsaas Programme so that the money could reach the people and the world can see that there is no political, racial or religious consideration. This was a big step," he told the press.

In response to a question, he said that the tax target fixed for the new fiscal year was "aspirational" but the government will not "aggressively" try to achieve it due to the current economic crisis caused by the pandemic.
https://www.dawn.com/news/1562821/g...ies-services-sectors-register-negative-growth
 
PM Imran says opposition wants 'economy to fail so they can criticise govt further'

Prime Minister Imran Khan has said that the opposition wants the country's economy to "fail so that they can criticise the government further".

Addressing the nation on the Covid-19 situation, the premier said he was "thankful that the situation in Pakistan is a lot better than the world". He added that he was proud of his team which had provided guidance after consultations with doctors and experts.

"I have seen the way in which the world has battled it. I am proud of my team, they did splendid analysis. We are very fortunate to have such people. We did not come under pressure," he said.
 
Mamoon said:
View attachment 101517
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Are you sure these accurate?
According to detailed calculations made by Dr Pasha, growth rate for 2015-16 was 3.1 percent (against government claim of 4.5 percent), 4.4 percent in 2016-17 against government claims of 5.3 percent and 4.9 percent in the current year against the claim of 5.8 percent - an assessment he based on projecting the rate for the last four months.
https://fp.brecorder.com/2018/06/20180601376379/

Remember these growth figures came at time when the govt borrowed $35bn and the imports were $32bn more than exports. As an a guy who has about much clue about this as anything else you write about, I am sure you will run.
 
Lol, the graphs have been compiled by Geo.tv. The same channel which went beserk over Ayesha Gullalai allegations against IK demanding a serious investigation against IK and the same channel now is saying that Cynthia Ritchie's allegations against PPP's senior leadership should just be ignored as Pakistani's should not take allegations from foreigners against their officials that seriously as the country has more pressing problems to focus on.

It is just depressing to see a lot of Pakistani's prioritizing their bank accounts over the national interest of the country
 
Despite pandemic, remittances rise 4.6% in May

Contrary to market expectations, remittances sent home by overseas Pakistanis rose 4.6% to $1.87 billion in May 2020 despite the coronavirus pandemic coupled with global lockdowns.

Pakistanis working in foreign countries had remitted $1.79 billion in April 2020, according to data released by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Friday.

The encouraging inflows may help the rupee to strengthen against the US dollar in the short run and also contribute positively to the external account.

The growth in receipts is led by Middle Eastern countries where a majority of the Pakistani expatriates reside.

Talking to The Express Tribune, BMA Capital Executive Director Saad Hashmi termed the rise in remittances a positive development for the country.

“The data of remittances for May exceeded market expectations and the country should take it as a positive sign,” he said. “The industry expected a drop in remittances on the back of global slowdown caused by the coronavirus pandemic.”

According to Hashmi, the encouraging inflows will bode well for the country’s external account. He added that Eidul Fitr played a significant role in the increase in remittances.

MAFA Capital CEO Muzammil Aslam said remittances came in contrary to expectations in May 2020 because of the month of Ramazan and Eidul Fitr.

“In addition to this, illegal channels (Hundi/Hawala) have stopped operating during the lockdown, hence, expatriate Pakistanis are left with no option but to send money through official channels,” he said.

In the first 11 months (July-May) of current fiscal year, the remittances amounted to $20.65 billion, which was higher by 2.7% or $551.5 million compared to $20.10 billion in the same period of previous fiscal year.

However, on a year-on-year basis, workers’ remittances dropped 18.6% compared to May 2019 when inflows stood at $2.3 billion.

“During this pandemic, job losses for overseas Pakistani workers and the closure of international borders remain the main factors affecting the flow of remittances,” the SBP said in a statement. “Moreover, last year, the whole month of Ramazan fell in May.”

Country-wise data

Expatriate Pakistanis in Saudi Arabia sent home the highest amount of $436.2 million in May 2020, however, it was 3.4% less than the $451.37 million received in April 2020.

Pakistanis living in the US sent $428.3 million during the month, up 6.6% compared to $401.9 million in the preceding month.

Remittances received from the UAE dropped 8.6% to $323.4 million from $353.7 million. Inflows from the UK rose 25.7% from $226.61 million in April 2020 to $284.8 million in May 2020.

Remittances from the rest of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries (including Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait and Oman) inched up from $153.35 million to $155.05 million.

Pakistanis from Europe sent home $57.95 million in May, up 43.16% compared to $40.48 million in April.
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2241842/2-despite-pandemic-remittances-rise-4-6-may/
 
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Unfortunately even the most powerful economies are taking a bashing - and if one looks at this table, where Pakistan stands is not as bad as some of the more powerful economies. No value judgement - just a statement of fact. <a href="https://t.co/KpmjtVnB8w">pic.twitter.com/KpmjtVnB8w</a></p>— Shireen Mazari (@ShireenMazari1) <a href="https://twitter.com/ShireenMazari1/status/1272070837856882688?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 14, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 
MenInG said:
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Unfortunately even the most powerful economies are taking a bashing - and if one looks at this table, where Pakistan stands is not as bad as some of the more powerful economies. No value judgement - just a statement of fact. <a href="https://t.co/KpmjtVnB8w">pic.twitter.com/KpmjtVnB8w</a></p>— Shireen Mazari (@ShireenMazari1) <a href="https://twitter.com/ShireenMazari1/status/1272070837856882688?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 14, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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The more affluent countries are taking a bigger hit because they are suspending non-essential consumption. You can spend $5 on a meal at home or $100 on a dinner at the restaurant. The $100 dinners are now gone, along with the $10,000 vacations. Poorer countries are not much affected by the loss of this kind of consumption as there wasn't a whole lot to begin with. Having a lower % fall is nothing to boast about even though it may be " just a statement of fact".
 
ManFan said:
Before the coronavirus, can anyone give a detailed, non-biased answer whether or not it is IK’s fault that the economy has been terrible under his reign?
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I don't follow Pakistan's economy that closely, but I can tell you with 100% confidence that impact of most economic decisions take time and you will hardly see impact immediately. It will be true for IK and it will be true for others. In 4-5 years, impact becomes visible and sometime it takes longer.

I am not saying that IK's actions are good or bad here, but I don't think that impact of his policies will be visible so quickly. He has been there only for couple of years.
 
Buffet said:
I don't follow Pakistan's economy that closely, but I can tell you with 100% confidence that impact of most economic decisions take time and you will hardly see impact immediately. It will be true for IK and it will be true for others. In 4-5 years, impact becomes visible and sometime it takes longer.

I am not saying that IK's actions are good or bad here, but I don't think that impact of his policies will be visible so quickly. He has been there only for couple of years.
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This is why no political party makes those long term decisions that are vital for the country and where the fruits take 10-20 years to exhibit because all the decision making and planning is extremely short term and designed to win re-election campaigns.
 
Savak said:
This is why no political party makes those long term decisions that are vital for the country and where the fruits take 10-20 years to exhibit because all the decision making and planning is extremely short term and designed to win re-election campaigns.
Click to expand...

It's true in most countries, but you can still take mixture of decisions for short term and long term benefits. 1-2 years is too short term though to see impact.
 
PTI cannot stop talking about current account, but the real impact of improving your current account is felt when you not only reduce imports but boost exports.

What PTI has done is that they have simply cut down on imports but have not been able to boost exports. Ultimately, the only outcome has been that everything has reached a standstill.

They championed Asad Umar as some economic genius for years who thought running the economy of a country would be piling running a company, but he was so out of depth that he didn’t even last 8 months.

He has been replaced by a former PPP finance minister who was at the helm under Zardari when PPP was supposedly looting the nation and laundering money, and somehow he is now going to set our economy in the right direction.

This is a government of jokers. They will now keep using this pandemic as an excuse even though they had no idea what they were doing and had no long-term vision and strategy.

Nevertheless, this nightmare will be over soon.
 
Mamoon said:
PTI cannot stop talking about current account, but the real impact of improving your current account is felt when you not only reduce imports but boost exports.

What PTI has done is that they have simply cut down on imports but have not been able to boost exports. Ultimately, the only outcome has been that everything has reached a standstill.

They championed Asad Umar as some economic genius for years who thought running the economy of a country would be piling running a company, but he was so out of depth that he didn’t even last 8 months.

He has been replaced by a former PPP finance minister who was at the helm under Zardari when PPP was supposedly looting the nation and laundering money, and somehow he is now going to set our economy in the right direction.

This is a government of jokers. They will now keep using this pandemic as an excuse even though they had no idea what they were doing and had no long-term vision and strategy.

Nevertheless, this nightmare will be over soon.
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Over how? And how do you know the establishment's plans?
 
Prince of Pakistan said:
Over how? And how do you know the establishment's plans?
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Well that is what history shows us. They have had no problem with deposing the PM/government whenever their self-interests have been threatened.

They got rid of Nawaz when he showed reluctance in handing over CPEC contracts to the military. The corruption charges were just a pretext. Nawaz did not become corrupt overnight but the establishment had no issues with his corruption as long as he was doing their bidding.

It is important to note that the establishment does not care about corruption; they only care about their interests.

Although Imran is still dancing to their tunes, he is slowly but surely reaching a point where he is starting to threaten the interests of the military with his sheer incompetence, poor administrative skills and complete lack of leadership which has been very obvious during this pandemic.

Imran is running the country into the ground and if he is allowed to stay as PM beyond 2023, the interests of the military will be compromised.

It appears that the establishment has targeted Shahid Afridi as their next puppet and will launch his political career soon.
 
Mamoon said:
PTI cannot stop talking about current account, but the real impact of improving your current account is felt when you not only reduce imports but boost exports.

What PTI has done is that they have simply cut down on imports but have not been able to boost exports. Ultimately, the only outcome has been that everything has reached a standstill.

They championed Asad Umar as some economic genius for years who thought running the economy of a country would be piling running a company, but he was so out of depth that he didn’t even last 8 months.

He has been replaced by a former PPP finance minister who was at the helm under Zardari when PPP was supposedly looting the nation and laundering money, and somehow he is now going to set our economy in the right direction.

This is a government of jokers. They will now keep using this pandemic as an excuse even though they had no idea what they were doing and had no long-term vision and strategy.

Nevertheless, this nightmare will be over soon.
Click to expand...

If I wrong then explain then why the current account deficit was allowed to get out of control, how the Nooras intended to tackle it, what thr relationship of the deficit was to the exchange rate and what long term damage was done by the overvalued exchange rate.
 
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Prince of Pakistan said:
Over how? And how do you know the establishment's plans?
Click to expand...

If you look at his old posts, there wa no mention of the establishment, then the Nooras had to explain the fact that they were caught with their hands in the till and they came up with this this conspiracy to confuse their thick supporters and some idiots brought it. If the Nooras were had self respect or they believed what they tell us why did they vote for Bajwa's extension.
 
Mamoon said:
Well that is what history shows us. They have had no problem with deposing the PM/government whenever their self-interests have been threatened.

They got rid of Nawaz when he showed reluctance in handing over CPEC contracts to the military. The corruption charges were just a pretext. Nawaz did not become corrupt overnight but the establishment had no issues with his corruption as long as he was doing their bidding.

It is important to note that the establishment does not care about corruption; they only care about their interests.

Although Imran is still dancing to their tunes, he is slowly but surely reaching a point where he is starting to threaten the interests of the military with his sheer incompetence, poor administrative skills and complete lack of leadership which has been very obvious during this pandemic.

Imran is running the country into the ground and if he is allowed to stay as PM beyond 2023, the interests of the military will be compromised.

It appears that the establishment has targeted Shahid Afridi as their next puppet and will launch his political career soon.
Click to expand...

And how do you think this is all going to take place? Through Justice Faez Isa case or a parliamentary solution?

I feel the establishment has an advantage of having full control over all matters with the PTI in charge. Something that they will not have with the PMLN especially with Maryam/Nawaz at the top. The establishment will try to preserve this advantage. They could add more generals at top posts and basically have all maters in hand.

Also I doubt any one wants power during this pandemic. It's a big mess and the supposedly options will be reluctant to take over at this moment.

IK is safe till Dec/Jan at the least.
 
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Bewal Express said:
If you look at his old posts, there wa no mention of the establishment, then the Nooras had to explain the fact that they were caught with their hands in the till and they came up with this this conspiracy to confuse their thick supporters and some idiots brought it. If the Nooras were had self respect or they believed what they tell us why did they vote for Bajwa's extension.
Click to expand...

That's the irony really. They blame Bajwa for a rigged election and then vote for his extension. Also shows how selfish Nawaz Sharif is and how much they believe in 'vote ko izzat do'. Nawaz got a deal for himself and left his supporters feeling betrayed. How can people still believe Maryam or Nawaz's words?
 
Apart from Defense employees and govt servants almost all private sector has reduced salaries or are laying off manpower testing times ahead dollar will shoot again
 
Prince of Pakistan said:
That's the irony really. They blame Bajwa for a rigged election and then vote for his extension. Also shows how selfish Nawaz Sharif is and how much they believe in 'vote ko izzat do'. Nawaz got a deal for himself and left his supporters feeling betrayed. How can people still believe Maryam or Nawaz's words?
Click to expand...

Because PML N covered all there bases.

Nawaz played the anti establishment card
Shahbaaz played the boot polisher card
Maryam played the liberal card
While Safdar, the damad, played the mullah card
 
Has there ever been an example of a govt or a ruler who had to make very tough, unpopular decisions in the first few years of his rule but where he completely changed it around in the middle and came out better at the end in the long run?
 
Savak said:
Has there ever been an example of a govt or a ruler who had to make very tough, unpopular decisions in the first few years of his rule but where he completely changed it around in the middle and came out better at the end in the long run?
Click to expand...

Yes, Hitler.

He turned bankrupt Weimar Germany to a superpower in the space of 10 years by making one decision to abolish central bank issued currency.

The rest is history.
 
Kianig89 said:
Layman has no concern with exchange rate technicalities
Click to expand...

But unfortunately economic fundamentals do. The lay persons inability to understand economic fundamentals is the reason why we are in such a mess because Munshi and NS knew, but took the easy route of Borrowing. Let me put into laymans terms- we dont export enough, we import too much, to fill the gap(called the current account deficit), we need Dollars , we either increase the 1st and decrease the 2nd, or a combination of the 2. We didnt do either, we borrowed billions, $64bn in the last 10 years and more since IK has taken over. The more desperate we get for Dollars, the more Rps we offer on the markets to get them, hence the depreciation. It cannot go on, something had to give.
 
Bewal Express said:
But unfortunately economic fundamentals do. The lay persons inability to understand economic fundamentals is the reason why we are in such a mess because Munshi and NS knew, but took the easy route of Borrowing. Let me put into laymans terms- we dont export enough, we import too much, to fill the gap(called the current account deficit), we need Dollars , we either increase the 1st and decrease the 2nd, or a combination of the 2. We didnt do either, we borrowed billions, $64bn in the last 10 years and more since IK has taken over. The more desperate we get for Dollars, the more Rps we offer on the markets to get them, hence the depreciation. It cannot go on, something had to give.
Click to expand...

I knew this but the masses have concern with it is this their fault that we import more and export less need to improve our governance
 
Kianig89 said:
I knew this but the masses have concern with it is this their fault that we import more and export less need to improve our governance
Click to expand...

If you knew this then you Kaptaan has done a fair job so far in getting imports down, the masses have to live with decisions they made in electing these crooks back 2008 and 13. There is no simple solution unless you care to share.
 
Bewal Express said:
If you knew this then you Kaptaan has done a fair job so far in getting imports down, the masses have to live with decisions they made in electing these crooks back 2008 and 13. There is no simple solution unless you care to share.
Click to expand...

Yes no simple solution but governance is weak petrol prices slashed petrol not available the problem exist even till day sugar mafia we all know wheat crisis

Only time will tell what happens have a gut feeling when this govtis near to end somekne from opposition will go to court against them for coronavirus death tolls (governance failure criminal negligence to save human lives) dont forget its a citizen's fundamental right that govt gives protection to his life
 
I wonder if there has been any govt before which has received non stop criticism in the media, opposition parties and all segments of society. Not even the Musharraf govt was under this level of onslaught
 
Kianig89 said:
Yes no simple solution but governance is weak petrol prices slashed petrol not available the problem exist even till day sugar mafia we all know wheat crisis

Only time will tell what happens have a gut feeling when this govtis near to end somekne from opposition will go to court against them for coronavirus death tolls (governance failure criminal negligence to save human lives) dont forget its a citizen's fundamental right that govt gives protection to his life
Click to expand...

You say the governance is weak, and you give some examples. But the fact is that mafia is strong, and when you combine it with a corrupt Judiciary, it makes impossible at times for the government to govern. The Sugar and wheat mafia were part of the plot to bring the government down, remember Diesel told us the government would fall in Jan and guess what a shortage was created right on cue, to allow conditions in which Q and others would claim that they had failed. The fact the SS came back to PM is testament to how detailed the plot was but it failed. Where I do agree with you is that too many ministers in Kaptaans govt are useless, they are too slow to react but when you have a minority govt it's difficult to kick out Ministers that don't actually do anything. The petrol crisis was profiteering but why did it take a week for the govt to take realise the crisis.
 
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Kianig89 said:
Yes no simple solution but governance is weak petrol prices slashed petrol not available the problem exist even till day sugar mafia we all know wheat crisis

Only time will tell what happens have a gut feeling when this govtis near to end somekne from opposition will go to court against them for coronavirus death tolls (governance failure criminal negligence to save human lives) dont forget its a citizen's fundamental right that govt gives protection to his life
Click to expand...

Bewal Express said:
You say the governance is weak, and you give some examples. But the fact is that mafia is strong, and when you combine it with a corrupt Judiciary, it makes impossible at times for the government to govern. The Sugar and wheat mafia were part of the plot to bring the government down, remember Diesel told us the government would fall in Jan and guess what a shortage was created right on cue, to allow conditions in which Q and others would claim that they had failed. The fact the SS came back to PM is testament to how detailed the plot was but it failed. Where I do agree with you is that too many ministers in Kaptaans govt are useless, they are too slow to react but when you have a minority govt it's difficult to kick out Ministers that don't actually do anything. The petrol crisis was profiteering but why did it take a week for the govt to take realise the crisis.
Click to expand...

did not answered this
 
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Bewal Express said:
What is your question, I have answered your point.
Click to expand...

I think he is asking if the govt criminally mismanaged Corona virus response and what if someone goes to court against them?
 
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Savak said:
I think he is asking if the govt criminally mismanaged Corona virus response and what if someone goes to court against them?
Click to expand...

It can be argued that few govts have handed it well. I think the response is complicated in countries like PK, and to some extent here in the UK by people's propensity to believe conspiracy theories and not follow basic advice. I spoke to a friend in PK during Ramadan and he told me that people don't just listen, last week he got CV. For me the govt's job is to educate people and ultimately, people have to own their decisions. If you don't believe it's a problem, because you havent seen anyone with it and you think it's all rubbish, then you can't complain when it hits you.
 
Bewal Express said:
It can be argued that few govts have handed it well. I think the response is complicated in countries like PK, and to some extent here in the UK by people's propensity to believe conspiracy theories and not follow basic advice. I spoke to a friend in PK during Ramadan and he told me that people don't just listen, last week he got CV. For me the govt's job is to educate people and ultimately, people have to own their decisions. If you don't believe it's a problem, because you havent seen anyone with it and you think it's all rubbish, then you can't complain when it hits you.
Click to expand...

The Corona situation is unprecedented. Pakistan should be compared with other countries, its neighbours.

The only disappointment I have is that IK should have given full authorization to the army police to use fines, jailing, force to enforce SOP's as this nation only understands the danda
 
Savak said:
The Corona situation is unprecedented. Pakistan should be compared with other countries, its neighbours.

The only disappointment I have is that IK should have given full authorization to the army police to use fines, jailing, force to enforce SOP's as this nation only understands the danda
Click to expand...

Maybe, but when people rather believe whats app messages over official govt advice, you just have to hope that things don't go pear shaped.
 
Ik was non serious or callous in this corona awareness recently he has changed his stance as a leader he should lead from the front even his minister in the initial phase advocated that mask isn't necessary
 
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