ICC World Cup 2019 : Points table, Net Run Rates, qualifying scenarios & Stats thread

[topspin]

If SriLankan is to win those games Malinga has to repeat the performance he showed against England. How likely is that?

Malinga was superb but England were also very poor with the bat. If the total was at least 270+, we could say they outplayed England, but as a matter fact the English lost this game because they took this chase for granted.

Even if an over-the-hill Malinga can replicate this display for the next 3 matches, I doubt Sri Lanka will be able to win each encounter because they are seriously weak with their batting and spinners. I actually think their pace bowling is a bit underrated. It's nothing special but competitive at the very least.

 

[Hasan123]

Also Sri Lanka will be underdogs for each of their 3 x remaining games, so I think there is more chance they will end up losing each one, than winning all 3.

Sri Lanka still has a good chance of qualifying. Not likely but I wouldn't rule them out. They will want to give a good fight in a ICC tournament. They have nothing to lose.

 

[JellyBro]

After watching all these games we simply cannot conclude which team will win a particular match.
This has been the best world cup in the history of world cups

 

[farazaidi]

Aint the head to head will be taken into equation first then NRR

Pakistan needs not to worry about NRR their focus should be on winning games rest the Destiny will take care

As per Wikipedia page, number of wins will be considered first, then NRR and then head to head.

As we will be locked on 5 wins each against NZ, only NRR will matter and over-coming NZ is nearly impossible. You are right, we should simply win our next two games, keep up the momentum and lets hope ENG & SL stumble, its as simple as that.

 

[jnaveen1980]

After watching all these games we simply cannot conclude which team will win a particular match.
This has been the best world cup in the history of world cups

Teams have weaknesses. That is why this world cup is utterly bizzarre. It is a case of weakness of which team gets flared up more

 

[NA]

So basically if it both NZ and somehow Pak land up on 11 points... Need 150 run margin wins against Afg and BD ( BD spinners are good at choking opposition runs).
or Bowl them both teams out for 150 and score 150 in 25 overs.
and then wait for other results to go Pakistan's way.
Blood pressure of Pakistan fans must fluctuate a lot... One minute low BP other minute high BP

It's actually worse from Pak's perspective. Even these massive victories bring Pak's NRR to around +0.1, and to have NZL go from +1.0 to let's say +0.095, requires NZL to lose by around 240 runs combined.

It's not happening, and all these comments about whether Haris and Babar could have finished the game 5-6 over earlier are also missing the point as to how far down Pakistan's NRR has been in this tournament. Even considering that Pak-Nzl game offered a change to fix the NRR differential at twice the rate (Pak goes up, Nzl goes down), the needle would have budged only for exceptional victories (Nzl getting out around 150, and Pak chasing it in 20 overs).

Pak should concentrate on winning the games and not the NRR at this point, at least not in the game against Afg. By the time Pak-Bdesh comes, and assuming Pak beats Afg, Pak team will know whether a victory alone is sufficient, or NRR matters too, as Nzl and Eng both would have played all their games by then.

 

[NA]

As per Wikipedia page, number of wins will be considered first, then NRR and then head to head.

I don't understand why head to head is below NRR. How can NRR be same in a tournament where teams play 8-9 games? It's almost impossible to have the same NRR. It'd make lot more sense to give preference to head-to-head first and then finally drop to NRR comparison.

 

[Stewie]

I think pakistan should simply focus on winning like most have said already.

That doesn’t mean you can’t go hard at afghanistan. Try to beat them with as big a margin as possible and the best way to do it is bowl first and bowl them out cheap. Then finish in double quick time.

With that said, I don’t believe England or SRL will go undefeated till the end. I am sure they will lose at least a game each.

 

[Savak]

Afghanistan and Bangladesh are not easy opponents, Pakistan will have to work very hard to beat them and embarrassingly Pakistan's recent performances against Bangladesh have not been great, we have lost our last 4 ODI's and last 2 out of 3 T-20's against them. We already lost to Afghanistan in the warm up games.

 

[latecut]

I don't understand why head to head is below NRR. How can NRR be same in a tournament where teams play 8-9 games? It's almost impossible to have the same NRR. It'd make lot more sense to give preference to head-to-head first and then finally drop to NRR comparison.

Rules have been made in advance and there is no point arguing about them at this juncture just because this rule does not suit you.

 

[Snatch]

I don't understand why head to head is below NRR. How can NRR be same in a tournament where teams play 8-9 games? It's almost impossible to have the same NRR. It'd make lot more sense to give preference to head-to-head first and then finally drop to NRR comparison.

Er, every World Cup I can remember has always had NRR as the first criteria after points and above head to head results.

It makes 100% of sense too and is the same in other sports like Rugby and Soccer in tournaments where in the case of football it's goals for and against.

NRR absolutely should be the 1st criteria after total points, because it rewards the team with the overall better performances in their wins. It's especially fair under this WC format where every teams plays each other.

If NZ and Pakistan both end up on 11 points (which could happen), NZ will go through, unless something remarkable happens like NZ lose their games by over 100 runs on each and Pakistan win both of theirs with similar margins.

 

[Snatch]

Realistically, Pakistan can forget about going above NZ and better hope England lose at least one of their games vs. India or NZ, and of course Pakistan keep winning. That's their only chance.

 

[Usman Chadda]

NZ is not going out, how hard is that to understand? All these permutations are useless, as NZ are good enough to win atleast one game in the last two they play.

England is at home, they are under pressure, they carry the tag of WC favourites, and they are playing two teams who are essentially guaranteed qualification and will not want to play England in a KO game.

If England win these last two games, it will be a monumental effort and they will deserve to go through. Simple as that.

If they slip up, and Pakistan wins their last two relatively easier games - Pakistan will deserve to go through.

I don't see Bangladesh or Sri Lanka going through, barring a miracle, sorry.

 

[Snatch]

NZ is not going out, how hard is that to understand? All these permutations are useless, as NZ are good enough to win atleast one game in the last two they play.

Disagree, NZ are likely to lose both their last two games vs. Australia and England.

But even if that does happen & NZ remain on 11 points, Pakistan won't overtake NZ on the points table due to NZ's NRR.

 

[Sarwar89]

Disagree, NZ are likely to lose both their last two games vs. Australia and England.

But even if that does happen & NZ remain on 11 points, Pakistan won't overtake NZ on the points table due to NZ's NRR.

Pakistan can if New zealand lose heavily in both games for example lose by 60-70 runs in both matches or their target getting chased down in 40 overs. And Pakistan manages to beat Afghanistan by 100 plus runs and 50-60 runs against Bangladesh.

 

[latecut]

Under normal circumstances,\ and for all practical purposes, India and New Zealand are through to semifinals alongwith Australia. Only one slot of semifinal is available and that is being contested for by England, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Pakistan.

 

[Snatch]

Pakistan can if New zealand lose heavily in both games for example lose by 60-70 runs in both matches or their target getting chased down in 40 overs. And Pakistan manages to beat Afghanistan by 100 plus runs and 50-60 runs against Bangladesh.

We played around with some hypothetical calculations earlier, and the results need to be even more remarkable than that. NZ need to lose both theirs by more than 100 runs each and Pakistan need a similar margin on both victories. So NZ can purposely play a little more safely to ensure they don't get blown away.

This is why I say realistically, Pakistan's only path is England losing one of the games.

 

[baggy blue]

After watching all these games we simply cannot conclude which team will win a particular match.
This has been the best world cup in the history of world cups

True....... Anyhow I don't want Pakistan to win this wc. This is not because I don't like Pakistan but I'm hating this eerie 1992 comparison and coincidences.

 

[umerz]

Realistically, Pakistan can forget about going above NZ and better hope England lose at least one of their games vs. India or NZ, and of course Pakistan keep winning. That's their only chance.

came here to say exactly the same

 

[Usman Chadda]

Disagree, NZ are likely to lose both their last two games vs. Australia and England.

But even if that does happen & NZ remain on 11 points, Pakistan won't overtake NZ on the points table due to NZ's NRR.

Based on what?

England is good I agree, but they are under tremendous pressure. NZ have enough quality to beat either Australia or England, or both.

 

[jnaveen1980]

Under normal circumstances,\ and for all practical purposes, India and New Zealand are through to semifinals alongwith Australia. Only one slot of semifinal is available and that is being contested for by England, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Pakistan.

Srilanka won't stand a chance. No way they are going to beat India. It will be between England, BD, Pakistan. If India beats England it will be a virtual quarter final between Pak and BD

 

[jnaveen1980]

Based on what?

England is good I agree, but they are under tremendous pressure. NZ have enough quality to beat either Australia or England, or both.

England is more likely to lose to India than NZ. NZ attack is a bit one-dimensional when there is no swing. If i were NZ i would play both Sodhi and Santner. Why do they play this crappola Monroe i never understand.

 

[Abdullah]

Srilanka won't stand a chance. No way they are going to beat India. It will be between England, BD, Pakistan. If India beats England it will be a virtual quarter final between Pak and BD

You have to remember India will have qualified after Sunday In sha Allah so they will rest and rotate Vs BD and SL
Brings them into the game.

Ideally we want Bangladesh to be destroyed by India , so our NRR is better than theirs going into that game (I'm thinking of the scenario where England finish on 8 points and we then dont necessarily need more than 9)

 

[GLORY OF '92]

I'm telling you only SL can stop us. They look really good now.

 

[Mainul]

Our game against India is a do or die game . If we loose we are out

 

[Mainul]

Srilanka won't stand a chance. No way they are going to beat India. It will be between England, BD, Pakistan. If India beats England it will be a virtual quarter final between Pak and BD

You are right. But before that quarter final we have to beat India. That will the toughest job for us

 

[Saj]

I'm telling you only SL can stop us. They look really good now.

Not at the moment though 135/5.

Sri Lanka lose this then it's going to be difficult for them to win both of their last 2 matches.

 

[Ronaldo7]

And if England wins against India?

That's his prediction. The writer thinks ind will beat eng.

 

[MMHS]

India will definitely try their best to knock Poms out before SF. They might be in tight corner, but this is definitely a frightening England side and their bowling surprisingly has exceeded expectations- it’s the batting that has cost them at least two games. England has every quality to win the WC once they are in SF and India would love to take Poms out before KOs.

The game is at Birmingham on a fresh wicket, therefore I actually back Poms to win it. If it was like the PAK-NZ track, Poms will struggle even against AFGs, but I expect a 300+ track and England should blast their way out of trouble.

Still rooting for the top 4 to make SF - PAK blew their chances against WIN, BD against Kiwis.

 

[gani999]

Srilanka won't stand a chance. No way they are going to beat India. It will be between England, BD, Pakistan. If India beats England it will be a virtual quarter final between Pak and BD

Pakistan shouldn't take BD for granted like they did in the Asia cup. They will need to give that game everything they have.

 

[gani999]

This is why I say realistically, Pakistan's only path is England losing one of the games.

TBH I don't see this England side beating India. I don't know why so may people are expecting England to win the WC.

 

[Syed1]

Srilanka won't stand a chance. No way they are going to beat India. It will be between England, BD, Pakistan. If India beats England it will be a virtual quarter final between Pak and BD

Bhai BD have to first beat India to even qualify for "quarter-final"

 

[hur rizvi]

That’s why I am disgusted with Midget to blow the game against Kiwis because that’s a straight 4 pointer. SRL washout wasn’t killer much because 1 point always helps. Same for PAK - despite alarming them many times (if PCT management doesn’t follow PP, then they are the dumbest people around), PAK blew half of their chances against WIN - just keeping WIN another 20 overs, by now PAK most likely would have been just two wins away from SF.... now Kiwis roughly needs to lose combined games by the cost of 95 overs or may be around 50 runs - whatever PAK does to AFGs, still they’ll need near impossible equation against BD.

Remember, now we have 7 games - that NRR has to be covered for 300 overs (one wash out each), hence every run or ball against AFG & BD will improve (or cost Kiwis in their 2 games) just by 33% (simply - make out of 6 games damage in 2 games).

Realistically, PAKs only chance is Poms losing both games, otherwise in last game (their game is after PAK-BD game), Kiwis will know exactly their defeat margin to advance. And to my astonishment, PAK kept 4 wickets at hand against India and 6 against Kiwis, but never tried to improve NRR, because this equation went above head - only remained is, India beating Poms, we are there.

About the last para, England only needs to lose one. If they do most probably one of Ban/pak can qualify

 

[Pete Rose]

If I am getting this right, I am supporting Australia to beat NZ tomorrow. That puts even more pressure on NZ when they face England. Because there's a scenario where England beats India, and NZ needs to win against them to keep their chances alive.

 

[Hawkeye]

Hello statisticians.

If Eng is out and we take their semi spot, who will we play against most likely?

And will it be semi #1 or #2?

Or it's not sure yet?

 

[Ronaldo7]

Hello statisticians.

If Eng is out and we take their semi spot, who will we play against most likely?

And will it be semi #1 or #2?

Or it's not sure yet?

Semi final 1 and will probably play ind

 

[MMHS]

Hello statisticians.

If Eng is out and we take their semi spot, who will we play against most likely?

And will it be semi #1 or #2?

Or it's not sure yet?

It’s 1 vs 4; 2 vs 3. Almost certainly India & Aussies will finish at 1-2.

Most likely scenario me thinks -
Australia 1 (16 points)
IND 2 (15, one washout & loss against Poms)
Poms 3 (12, they’ll win last 2)
NZ 4 (11, even if PAK wins over BD, Kiwis will make it via NRR)

AUS-NZ
Poms-IND

I don’t mind NZ-ENG final - we need a new champ.

 

[Jeetlodil]

India will want to beat England to stay top of the league, otherwise India will have to face Aus in semis. Below are SF scenarios. If England dont make it

India vs Pak/BD
Aus v NZ

If England make it
India vs NZ
Aus v Eng

If in an odd case NZ does not make it which is highly unlikely, then
India v Pak
Aus v Eng

 

[KingKhanWC]

Most likely scenario is this. Imo NZ will beat Aus.

1. India
2. Aus
3. NZ
4. Pak

India v Pak first semi in Bham, Pak win by record number of runs in world semi.

Aus v NZ - Aus beat NZ , last over thriller.

Pak v Aus final - Pak win by 20 runs.

Pakistan WC champions.

 

[Nikhil_cric]

Based on what?

England is good I agree, but they are under tremendous pressure. NZ have enough quality to beat either Australia or England, or both.

NZ lost to Pakistan. They surely can't beat Australia.

 

[Nikhil_cric]

If I am getting this right, I am supporting Australia to beat NZ tomorrow. That puts even more pressure on NZ when they face England. Because there's a scenario where England beats India, and NZ needs to win against them to keep their chances alive.

NZ 's NRR is quite high. Unless it is severely damaged by Australia and England AND Pakistan significantly improve theirs, I think NZ are through.

 

[Jeetlodil]

Most likely scenario is this. Imo NZ will beat Aus.

1. India
2. Aus
3. NZ
4. Pak

India v Pak first semi in Bham, Pak win by record number of runs in world semi.

Aus v NZ - Aus beat NZ , last over thriller.

Pak v Aus final - Pak win by 20 runs.

Pakistan WC champions.

I think SF1 is in Manchester

 

[KingKhanWC]

I think SF1 is in Manchester

Thanks, Pak v India - Pak to win by 100 runs.

 

[Savak]

If we happen to qualify, i would prefer to see Pakistan play India in the final rather than Semi Final. Final will be a block buster in that scenario

 

[shaaik]

 

[mudassir84]

At the moment, Pakistan are most likely team to go through but my inner feeling says England will beat india and new zealand to progress.

 

[BakuGM]

At the moment, Pakistan are most likely team to go through but my inner feeling says England will beat india and new zealand to progress.

Well Poms can win both games and go to semis as #3 team but if NZ also loses to India than it would be NRR between NZ and Pak (this scenario assumes PAk wins their remaining 2 games).

So even with ENG wining their remaining 2 games Pakistan still has a chance o qualify as #4.

 

[fluke]

really tough but I wish and hope that Pakistan will sneak in inshAllah

 

[IMMY69]

At the moment, Pakistan are most likely team to go through but my inner feeling says England will beat india and new zealand to progress.

So Kiwis could then end up losing their last two games, lowering their NRR which still allows Pakistan to sneak past them...

Today’s game was a great result for us.

 

[IMMY69]

NZ on 11 points but still have to play the Aussies and England so they may get stuck on 11 with a drop in their NRR... if Pakistan win both games their NRR will improve further so Kiwis actually looking vulnerable now.

England on 8 points and if they lose to India then they will be under pressure to beat the KIWI’s but then they can only get to ten points....

England look in trouble

 

[ataullah]

Well Poms can win both games and go to semis as #3 team but if NZ also loses to India than it would be NRR between NZ and Pak (this scenario assumes PAk wins their remaining 2 games).

So even with ENG wining their remaining 2 games Pakistan still has a chance o qualify as #4.

Pak run rate is so bad it's virtually impossible to beat New Zealand on run rate.

 

[ataullah]

NZ on 11 points but still have to play the Aussies and England so they may get stuck on 11 with a drop in their NRR... if Pakistan win both games their NRR will improve further so Kiwis actually looking vulnerable now.

England on 8 points and if they lose to India then they will be under pressure to beat the KIWI’s but then they can only get to ten points....

England look in trouble

Can someone work out how we can overtake new Zealand on run rate? I think it's 5% chance for Pak to overtake them on run rate if that

 

[Ashraful_Rox]

I think we will end up at 6th Position, would have been nice if we finished 5th in the table.

 

[NA]

Er, every World Cup I can remember has always had NRR as the first criteria after points and above head to head results.

It makes 100% of sense too and is the same in other sports like Rugby and Soccer in tournaments where in the case of football it's goals for and against.

My argument isn't that NRR is not a good differentiating factor compared to head-to-head, rather that it's impossible to have the same NRR between multiple teams in a league where every team plays eight or nine games. Why even have head-to-head comparison then? If it's below NRR comparison, then it'll never be needed.

Cricket isn't soccer. Goal-difference can easily be same for many teams.

 

[Madplayer]

Just give Pak the trophy

 

[HasanA]

india is going to go hard in the last 2 matches. they want to be the number 1 side on the table. they know that if Pakistan sneaks in they will be at number 4 not 3 or 2. They know they have a 7-0 winning record vs Pakistan in cup games. they will prefer to play the knockout game vs Pakistan than vs England, Australia and NZ

 

[NA]

Rules have been made in advance and there is no point arguing about them at this juncture just because this rule does not suit you.

I'd say the same if the rule suited Pakistan.

 

[NA]

If I am getting this right, I am supporting Australia to beat NZ tomorrow. That puts even more pressure on NZ when they face England. Because there's a scenario where England beats India, and NZ needs to win against them to keep their chances alive.

Nzl is safe especially after SL loss. Other than Aus, India and Eng, no team can now get past them on points, and Nzl has excellent NRR differential. Nzl can play safe, or like India try to take out England from this WC, without compromising their own semi spot.

It's basically, Pak, Bdesh, and Eng fighting for the final spot.

 

[farazaidi]

Bhai BD have to first beat India to even qualify for "quarter-final"

They can

BANG loses to IND but defeats PAK = 9 points
PAK loses to BANG but defeats AFG = 9 points
ENG loses to both NZ & IND = 8 points
SL loses to either IND or WI = 8 points

They already have a superior NRR than PAK so if they dont get smashed from India, they can qualify.

 

[Ozeirk]

The current scenarios being discussed are based on assumptions that favorites will win their games but this world Cup has taught us that this isn't always the case. Pakistan England and newzealand however are most likely going to be the teams who have a realistic shot at the 3rd and 4th place.

 

[Ozeirk]

I would not like to see the Bangladesh team getting close to anywhere near the knockout stages, it just dumbs down this world up. Let the elite teams fight it out.

 

[Usman Chadda]

NZ lost to Pakistan. They surely can't beat Australia.

Funny, how NZ was this awesome team before playing Pakistan, but now are nothing to be concerned about.

The lengths people go to... )

 

[Rana]

I think we will end up at 6th Position, would have been nice if we finished 5th in the table.

One of my Bangladeshi co workers also thinks they have already lost to Pakistan. Have faith in your team guys. Bangladesh are the hottest team when it’s their day

 

[Ronaldo7]

I would not like to see the Bangladesh team getting close to anywhere near the knockout stages, it just dumbs down this world up. Let the elite teams fight it out.

Who are the elite teams?

 

[NA]

I would not like to see the Bangladesh team getting close to anywhere near the knockout stages, it just dumbs down this world up. Let the elite teams fight it out.

If Bdesh beat Ind and Pak to reach the semi over Eng or Nzl, then they have earned their semi-final spot.

Basically, any team that reaches semifinal deserves to be there. If they didn't deserve it, they wouldn't make it. It's true especially for this type of format. The worst thing about the previous World Cups and the Oprah Winfrey style "you can be in QF, you can be in QF, everyone can be in QF" format, was you didn't have to do much to qualify for QF, after which one good day by a non-performer can ruin another team which did well throughout the tournament (and even then I'd be careful before bringing the "deserved" factor). With this World Cup format however, you have to fight tooth and nail to get to the semi-finals, and we should really appreciate any team that gets there.

 

[DeadlyYorker]

Well Poms can win both games and go to semis as #3 team but if NZ also loses to India than it would be NRR between NZ and Pak (this scenario assumes PAk wins their remaining 2 games).

So even with ENG wining their remaining 2 games Pakistan still has a chance o qualify as #4.

Nz already got india game washed out

 

[srh]

NZ was very lucky to get 1 point from their match against India. Otherwise they would not have reached SF stage.

 

[Syed1]

Funny, how NZ was this awesome team before playing Pakistan, but now are nothing to be concerned about.

The lengths people go to... )

I was waiting for "NZ to show Pak fans their teams true worth and kick the team out of the world cup".... still waiting

 

[farazaidi]

If Bdesh beat Ind and Pak to reach the semi over Eng or Nzl, then they have earned their semi-final spot.

Basically, any team that reaches semifinal deserves to be there. If they didn't deserve it, they wouldn't make it. It's true especially for this type of format. The worst thing about the previous World Cups and the Oprah Winfrey style "you can be in QF, you can be in QF, everyone can be in QF" format, was you didn't have to do much to qualify for QF, after which one good day by a non-performer can ruin another team which did well throughout the tournament (and even then I'd be careful before bringing the "deserved" factor). With this World Cup format however, you have to fight tooth and nail to get to the semi-finals, and we should really appreciate any team that gets there.

Sorry bro but to be brutally honest, you dont deserve anything. Champions are crowned on the basis of their victories and not how analysts describe them. How beautiful or ugly or brutal that may be, what matters is which team managed to cross over the line.

I just have this deserve thing, a term used by a certain Pakistani to derail the performance of his national team. If Bangla lose to India and defeat PAK and manage to qualify still, they would richly deserve that. Good luck Bangla

 

[ARK Rafay]

If we happen to qualify, i would prefer to see Pakistan play India in the final rather than Semi Final. Final will be a block buster in that scenario

Another Phanta for India then.

 

[Nov15]

If we happen to qualify, i would prefer to see Pakistan play India in the final rather than Semi Final. Final will be a block buster in that scenario

For that to happen, India will need to lose against England on Sunday. Unlikely that England will lose to NZ after beating India- that knocks Pak out of semis.

 

[farazaidi]

For that to happen, India will need to lose against England on Sunday. Unlikely that England will lose to NZ after beating India- that knocks Pak out of semis.

India can lose to Bangla too, you never know

 

[alisiddiq02]

Oh according to my stochastic algorithm, it will be India

 

[Aman]

If India beats England, NZ qualify for the SFs. Only one other team will be able to finish with 11 points between Pakistan and Bangladesh - both play each other.

 

[Aman]

If India wins against England, 3 spots will be confirmed.

4th spot will be between England (max of 10 points if they lose to India), Bangladesh (need to beat India and Pakistan to finish with 11) and Pakistan (Afg and Bangladesh - max points 11)

 

[Arsalan Pro]

If India beats England, NZ qualify for the SFs. Only one other team will be able to finish with 11 points between Pakistan and Bangladesh - both play each other.

Does it mean that Kiwi's are also supporting India on Sunday?

 

[Aman]

Does it mean that Kiwi's are also supporting India on Sunday?

Yes.

 

[Aman]

If England loses to India, they will have to beat us to finish with 10 points, hope Bangladesh loses to India and beats Pakistan to qualify ahead of Pakistan (9 points) and Bangladesh (9 points).

 

[Aman]

NZ was very lucky to get 1 point from their match against India. Otherwise they would not have reached SF stage.

If they can beat one of Aus/England they deserve to be there, if not then they're very fortunate to be there.

 

[ChennaiFan]

I expect England to win both of their remaining games in the league and then both of the knockout matches too.