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Is it realistic to expect a long-term ceasefire between India and Pakistan?
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No that is not going to happen. I have full faith in BJP.![]()
Fire is what keeps the some major forces in Pakistan relevant. There is no ceasing of it.
No that is not going to happen. I have full faith in BJP.![]()
yes - the onus though is on Pakistan since it has been the agitator with revisionist aspirations.
As per Indian govt, Pakistan has been the initiator of all cease fire violations. There is nothing (anything?) we want from Pakistan and have no reason to violate cease fire. India does respond to CFVs and sometimes in different locations of our choice.Firing over LOC has been initiated by India possibly hundreds of times over the years.
We also now know India has held it's own revisionist aspirations from within Afghanistan into Pakistan, as confirmed by the captured Indian spy.
When BJP have political issues at home, they will look to divert by firing again.
As per Indian govt, Pakistan has been the initiator of all cease fire violations. There is nothing (anything?) we want from Pakistan and have no reason to violate cease fire. India does respond to CFVs and sometimes in different locations of our choice.
All countries employ spys in other countries. If a neighboring country has decided to spend its existence in hostility, you are left with no choice but to defend and counter.
What India says put to one side. You seem a smart chap. Do you honestly believe its always been Pakistan firiing first? Never India
India does have a reason. Dont you call it POK? This means Pakistan is occuyping Indian land, not a gali or field but a large piece of prime land for 70 years. Surely India wants its land back or are you suggesting they have given up Azad Kashmir as their own?
Not all countries send spies to support & facilitate terrorist attacks in other countries.
If we wanted to take POK by force, we would have it by now.
Like taking candy off a baby?
What is India waiting for, Pakistan to one day wake up and delcare it belongs to India?
Btw India simply doesnt have the ability to take Kashmir.
Well, there is no ambiguity on the result of 1971 war (surrender by Pakistan with tens of thousands of POWs). Why did India not annex it then? Call it naivety by India, but it expected to negotiate rationally with Pakistan abiding by its UN commitment. You seem to attribute it to lack of capability.
No, India is a big arms buyer and has a fast growing military industrial complex, it's not in their interests for there to be longlasting peace. Also if there's peace in Kashmir then it wouldn't justify their million+ troop presence and would ruin their plans of bringing in indian settlers to change the demographics and dispossess Kashmiris of their land.
Same thing stands for Pakistan military-political establishment. Forget any bonhomie, with a reasonable amount of sanity between the two countries it will harm the interest of many on both sides. And ofcourse for the reasons you mentioned the biggest losers are the third party arm dealers who benefit out of this dispute.
With the current regime of fascists and religious fanatics in power in India, it is almost impossible.
Their entire politics is based on hate against Pakistan and malice against Muslims.
Had there been no Pakistan and no Muslims in India, there wouldn't be any BJP.
So it's quite obvious that if long term peace is achieved with Pakistan then BJP will need to pack it's bags, and hence they will never let it happen.
If you support a permanent ceasefire, you support the status quo. Status quo only suits india. For final solution, there should be a decisive war. Diplomacy is not going to bring any solution.
Perhaps the most idiotic solution and even worse of a logic to recommend a “decisive war” between the two nuclear armed countries to find peace.
And mind you, Pakistan as per Modi lovers,
is “financially poor and struggling under debt”, so it may not have a whole lot to lose if it comes to nukes which will wipe out both countries. lol you will get a truly long lasting peace.
So be careful what you wish for.
A more logical solution is perhaps the need of Indian public to use its voting power and bring a more sensible and mature people in power who are genuinely interested in peace.
Pakistani nation did its part and brought PTI in power; however, Indian public has been made astray to prove their patriotism.
You must have seen this
It is not what I wish for (although seeing a mushroom cloud before I die will be great.) This is the only way. But you can keep wishing for your alternate director cut's endings to this saga.
I think you won’t be able to actually see the mushroom cloud because you will be part of it. So perhaps not so great after all.
Glad that we both agree that there will be a mushroom cloud.
India has a bigger military industrial complex, a bigger defense budget and economy so it has more at stake and it's in its interest to continue the conflict.
Not necessarily. While India does have the bigger volume in absolute sense, Pakistani military has a larger stake in their country not just from a military standpoint but also from a business interest standpoint.
Like taking candy off a baby?
What is India waiting for, Pakistan to one day wake up and delcare it belongs to India?
Btw India simply doesnt have the ability to take Kashmir.
With the current regime of fascists and religious fanatics in power in India, it is almost impossible.
Their entire politics is based on hate against Pakistan and malice against Muslims.
Had there been no Pakistan and no Muslims in India, there wouldn't be any BJP.
So it's quite obvious that if long term peace is achieved with Pakistan then BJP will need to pack it's bags, and hence they will never let it happen.
If we could take East Pakistan, why not POK?
Just that international agreements stop us from doing so. This is why pakistan gets slayed in international forums and their PM is reduced to twitter rants as hardly anyone is interested in their POV.
Pakistan has had a fascist and religiously fanatic regime since the outset. Its funny how you call a democratically elected govt of a secular republic as fascist. No wonder the world doesn't take you guys seriously.
Creation of pakistan was based on hatred for non muslims. Ayub Khan's fist showing rant just cemented the same.
Pakistan army runs pakistan and billions of dollars worth of businesses because of its fear mongering of India, without it they will lose their power.
No wonder there has been no peace from pakistan's side, no matter who is in power in India. Pakistan has broken atleast 3 agreements of peace it has signed with India.
Dude this disease of chest thumping is getting ridiculous
EXCEPT for US or maybe China no one can force ally take Kashmir just straight facts
I don't think you actually know the defense situation and what it takes to "take" territories in modern warfare especially against a country like Pakistan and this is not jingoism I am 150% serious and looking at it without the green tinted glasses
NO India can't make major inroads into Pakistan territory millittarically if looking at it wholeistically (not a nuclear angle)
Like c'mon how do you even come up with something as ridiculous as this or maybe you're into orange propoganda Who knows
I see no difference between like you and laal topi types both high off thier own garbage propoganda
I get it you have a disease of chest thumping and I genuinely feel sorry for you but this was ridiculous
Just the size of military and economy enables India to annex if it wants to. Same like how China can do that to us. It comes at a huge cost though - men, material, monetary, diplomatic, economic etc.
So if it becomes a national agenda to annex POK, it can be done (easier than you may think) if there is no external support to Pakistan.
Just Fyi, that's the next thing on BJP manifesto. They executed all the line items above it.
No that is not going to happen. I have full faith in BJP.![]()
nice job in trying to fool pakistanis that anti pakistan stand is just a bjp thing, and otherwise india is a pakistan friendly nation.
With the current regime of fascists and religious fanatics in power in India, it is almost impossible.
Their entire politics is based on hate against Pakistan and malice against Muslims.
Had there been no Pakistan and no Muslims in India, there wouldn't be any BJP.
So it's quite obvious that if long term peace is achieved with Pakistan then BJP will need to pack it's bags, and hence they will never let it happen.
And that the Pakistani Army's desire for domestic dominance is not the prime driver of the Indo-Pak low level war.
If we could take East Pakistan, why not POK?
Just that international agreements stop us from doing so. This is why pakistan gets slayed in international forums and their PM is reduced to twitter rants as hardly anyone is interested in their POV.
Not necessarily. While India does have the bigger volume in absolute sense, Pakistani military has a larger stake in their country not just from a military standpoint but also from a business interest standpoint.
Kashmir from Indian side has a very limited approach to Pakistani side (limited ways to enter Azad Kashmir) so you can't "rush" into a Pakistan territory with huge numbers (which is helpful for India) so this gives a HUGE advantage to any defensive force
Imagine a mountainous region with only two three ways (they are similar to valley) to enter into the habitable regions now you can only put in around maybe three companies in around 4 hours (because there isn't enough space, infrastructure to rush into enemy territory) (with all the heavy equipment) but the enemy is waiting in fortified positions in and around the mountains with a bunch of battalions with all their heavy equipments
Even Ugandan Army would turn those poor soldiers into mince meat forget a competent army like Pakistan’s (I am no bakht but they are competent)
This is what India would face in Azad Kashmir theater and I don't think India is stupid enough to keep trying to tire out the Pakistani army into giving up Azad Kashmir (No half decent army would fail such an easy defense job cause the geography reduces the big advantage India has its numbers while PA is in defensive fortified position (in flat lands the odds are 3:1 soldier imagine what it'll be like in a mountainous region with few opening to enter and an enemy with heavy equipment ready to pounce))
Add in the Local people's hostility towards the invading army (this is an enormous support for defensive army)
I don't want to get too much into it cause it seems to be too hacky but Pakistan will definitely get huge Chinese support (maybe not direct but with modern equipment straight from Chinese armoury during the war, something which we are seeing rn where China is giving modern 21st century equipment on easy loans to Pak army)
And this support will take place because of the CPEC Project, on face value an economic project but also focused on military and no country (especially China with ambitions of being a superpower) would like to lose its military assets
Yeah but Pak military's business interests are mainly outside warfare and in various industries and real estate so they don't have to rely on weapons manufacturing and warfare to make money while india's army hasn't diversified their investment unlike Pak army thus they're only relevant and getting paid so as long as they're fighting an external "threat" (whether real or engineered).
getting paid?
They don't even get proper daal roti.
There have been videos going viral of them crying.
As someone who is actually from India, I can tell you for certain that the <b>biggest expectation</b> of the BJP supporters is that it would completely bury the corrupt Congress-Nehru-Socialism-License-Raj and bring in the market reforms needed to faster economic growth.
No Pakistani would like to admit this
But at the end of it Pak army has "played up" the fear of india into our minds to keep that dominance
Border line police state cause everything they don't like can be attributed to "national security"
Pakistan has had a fascist and religiously fanatic regime since the outset. Its funny how you call a democratically elected govt of a secular republic as fascist. No wonder the world doesn't take you guys seriously.
Creation of pakistan was based on hatred for non muslims. Ayub Khan's fist showing rant just cemented the same.
Pakistan army runs pakistan and billions of dollars worth of businesses because of its fear mongering of India, without it they will lose their power.
No wonder there has been no peace from pakistan's side, no matter who is in power in India. Pakistan has broken atleast 3 agreements of peace it has signed with India.
Lame excuses. Which international agreements, please cite them?
Pakistan is a nuclear power, any attempt to invade or take Azad Kashmir will result in an all out war, destroying both nations. Therefore its stupid of the ONLY big Hindu majority nation to act in a manner which will end it along with killing millions across the border.
Was Congress not the ones who started opening up the economy in the 90's?
And you think Hindutva has nothing to do with them winning? Does hating on Mughals, wanting to rename cities with Muslim names, Modi talking about "1,200 years of slavery", not get them votes?
What about Modi saying that he can identify rioters by clothes, and Hum paanch, humare pachees type statements?
No Pakistani would like to admit this
But at the end of it Pak army has "played up" the fear of india into our minds to keep that dominance
Border line police state cause everything they don't like can be attributed to "national security"
Yeah but Pak military's business interests are mainly outside warfare and in various industries and real estate so they don't have to rely on weapons manufacturing and warfare to make money while india's army hasn't diversified their investment unlike Pak army thus they're only relevant and getting paid so as long as they're fighting an external "threat" (whether real or engineered).
As on March 2nd, 2021 there are 549 companies listed in PSX and the total market capitalization is Rs. 8,229.243 billions.
https://www.ksestocks.com/AboutPSX
Ordinary soldiers get paid nothing, they're just cannon fodders -the ones making the big bucks are the Indian Generals, it's always the top brass that are corrupt and exploiting the rank and file.
getting paid?
They don't even get proper daal roti.
There have been videos going viral of them crying.
Yet it was Musharraf and PM Singh who almost came to a deal on Kashmir. So that argument does not really hold anymore.
Don't base your view of the world viral videos. India remains a poor country, but it has done much much better economically compared to Pakistan the last couple of decades. It has actually developed modern industries and that is seen in the market cap of individual firms like Reliance ($200 billion), TCS ($150 billion), HDFC ($115 billion), INFY ($75 billion) and others which exceed the ENTIRE Market Capitalization of all firms in the Karachi Stock Index ($52.4 billion).
yeah, yeah, yeah ... same old boring cr@p. You'd think mentioning of these buzz words like "billions" and more "Billions" would give you the edge.
With the amount of population these figures don't mean much when you look at the number of mouths to feed in India. Even Bangladesh has taken over in GPD per capita.
Poverty line is about at the same level in India and Pakistan. Or should we compare the number of homeless people in India vs Pakistan, and arrive at the conclusion that Pakistan is better? 110 million vs 20 million.
And while you are at it, spend a few of those "billions of dollars" to provide a few extra toilets with running water to your public.
Give advise to your own regarding toiletsm
https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/dail...kistanis-still-lack-decent-toilet-report/amp/
India is far ahead of pakistan in economy. Its amusing how a country living on IMF loans is trying to belittle a country that IMF predicts to be the fastest growing economy this year.
I am no military expert but army will be the last thing moving inside Pok. Also the war cannot be limited to Pok.
First thing is establishing air superiority and naval blockade. Thats what was done in 1971.
1949 ceasefire agreement
1971 Shimla Agreement
1999 Lahore Declaration.
Nuclear weapons can be pre empted.
Numbers of Hindus don't matter, look at the jews.
If 500mn hindus die, the rest 600mn will strive to make a better nation.
See? same old glorified cr@p to represent a shallow sense of superiority.
Even if we go by your logic, 79 million people without toilets in Pakistan vs 350 million people without access to a toilet in India, what's the point of your supposedly "financial superiority"? Keep thumping your chest if that makes you feel better.
lol These are null and void. When you entered our airspace it was an act of war. We responded by shooting you down and capturing your pilot.
Wake up from RSS mindset, you cannot take a huge piece of land from a strong armed forces with nuclear weapons. Please educate yourself.
350 million? Dont bring stats out of your backside.
https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/m.ec...-economic-survey/amp_articleshow/70071414.cms
Financial superiority means we dont have to beg for bailouts.
First the 1971 part yeah about that it can't happen now (divided forces, geography, insurgency hopefully you are smart enough to get the point, I don't want to get into too much detail cause it's not worth a proper discussion tbh if you are a thinking person you'll know)
Better look at 65 because there was no proper war on Bengal front and it was lightly defended with no tank, 16 planes and a one division (but even than it isn't perfect because Pakistan was in an attack mode in Kashmir(troops concentrated in one front) because of that other parts were lightly defended but in case of full war on international borders that you are envisioning I am sure all the border areas will be defended properly)
In this scenario ramming into Azad Kashmir is out of question because if you evenly defend across major sectors the defensive odds are still WAY(you can't put lots of boots on the ground while defenders can- the numbers advantage is in the defenders hand) high because of the geography
Only option left is ramming through the flat Punjab area, I don't think Pak army is that incompetent to let Indian army capture all the major population sectors (if you go through army capabilities and also the capabilities of Indian army you’ll know but I don't want to bore people cause it almost always lead to dumb conversations of one “upness” and that's not mentally simulating) but OK I assume that yeah Indian army is powerful and can take down the international border defense due its sheer size and ill go with that assumption (Now that's 1000s miles away from Azad Kashmir;Facing armed resistance(of army, militias) and this will almost certainly risk a nuclear I am 95% sure because you have to pass/capture major Pak population canters, cities of millions of people and the capitol city- No country in the world would stop themselves from using the nuclear option in that apocalyptic scenario)
I see some dumb posts about preemptive strikes on nuclear sitesit scares even the US to do so (reportedly Israel did it in against Iraq(if you(not personally you) think that Pak military is as incompetent as Iraq’s then truly a facepalm moment on one’s knowledge on these defense affairs) and these strikes took place at the beginning of nuclear programs not decades after showing the world their nuclear capabilities, with nuclear weapons, launch sites scattered around the country)
When you go to air superiority option, you certainly can't do it “first” it'll lead to a full-blown war
To have full superiority it'll take at least 3-4 weeks (because you want to wait for air superiority before troop movement) but in modern warfare unless you can end the war in 20 or at most 30 days there's no point because International pressure gets too hot - China will start provocations(not war but threats of it with troop movements, skirmishes this'll get India nervous) in Indian disputed territories
The time frame it takes to wait for full air superiority and then moving in troops is just too long for modern warfare between two nuclear countries - this time frame opens up too many options for external forces to influence the war in ways that can disrupt all the plans of taking any disputed territory
Naval blockade same situation the time frame isn't enough to actually truly hurt Pak
Pakistan suffered from getting high of their own propaganda by actually believing their own b* some Orange topi Indians want the same for India - I am just warning..
Like they say don't get high of your own supply
Have pakistan declared them null and void? Any statement regarding this?
We entered pakistan. Dropped bombs at Balakote. Came back unchallenged.
We took the entire east Pakistan and 90k pakistanis were eating out of our hands. Thats the hard fact.
I am more educated than you are. You display your education across threads with your ignorant posts.
First the 1971 part yeah about that it can't happen now (divided forces, geography, insurgency hopefully you are smart enough to get the point, I don't want to get into too much detail cause it's not worth a proper discussion tbh if you are a thinking person you'll know)
Better look at 65 because there was no proper war on Bengal front and it was lightly defended with no tank, 16 planes and a one division (but even than it isn't perfect because Pakistan was in an attack mode in Kashmir(troops concentrated in one front) because of that other parts were lightly defended but in case of full war on international borders that you are envisioning I am sure all the border areas will be defended properly)
In this scenario ramming into Azad Kashmir is out of question because if you evenly defend across major sectors the defensive odds are still WAY(you can't put lots of boots on the ground while defenders can- the numbers advantage is in the defenders hand) high because of the geography
Only option left is ramming through the flat Punjab area, I don't think Pak army is that incompetent to let Indian army capture all the major population sectors (if you go through army capabilities and also the capabilities of Indian army you’ll know but I don't want to bore people cause it almost always lead to dumb conversations of one “upness” and that's not mentally simulating) but OK I assume that yeah Indian army is powerful and can take down the international border defense due its sheer size and ill go with that assumption (Now that's 1000s miles away from Azad Kashmir;Facing armed resistance(of army, militias) and this will almost certainly risk a nuclear I am 95% sure because you have to pass/capture major Pak population canters, cities of millions of people and the capitol city- No country in the world would stop themselves from using the nuclear option in that apocalyptic scenario)
I see some dumb posts about preemptive strikes on nuclear sitesit scares even the US to do so (reportedly Israel did it in against Iraq(if you(not personally you) think that Pak military is as incompetent as Iraq’s then truly a facepalm moment on one’s knowledge on these defense affairs) and these strikes took place at the beginning of nuclear programs not decades after showing the world their nuclear capabilities, with nuclear weapons, launch sites scattered around the country)
When you go to air superiority option, you certainly can't do it “first” it'll lead to a full-blown war
To have full superiority it'll take at least 3-4 weeks (because you want to wait for air superiority before troop movement) but in modern warfare unless you can end the war in 20 or at most 30 days there's no point because International pressure gets too hot - China will start provocations(not war but threats of it with troop movements, skirmishes this'll get India nervous) in Indian disputed territories
The time frame it takes to wait for full air superiority and then moving in troops is just too long for modern warfare between two nuclear countries - this time frame opens up too many options for external forces to influence the war in ways that can disrupt all the plans of taking any disputed territory
Naval blockade same situation the time frame isn't enough to actually truly hurt Pak
Pakistan suffered from getting high of their own propaganda by actually believing their own b* some Orange topi Indians want the same for India - I am just warning..
Like they say don't get high of your own supply
Yeah you can use any news source to find what suits your narrative.
There are Indian news sources reporting that it's up 620 million toiletless people in India.
In other news, that favors you, Modi promises to make 110 million toilets; HOWEVER Indians won't use them as they love to defecate in the open.
So take the award of "having financial superiority", and teach those people to use Indian Rs as toilet paper rather than using mud stones.
Why dont you put your sources? Hopefully they are not NGO based sources.I can put Unicef sources if you want.
I know it frustrates you that your country is in a perennial begging for bailouts situation, while India is making economic strides, but throwing your toys out of the pram wont help you.
Urmila is a housemaid living in a South Delhi slum. Today she has a toilet at home thanks to the Indian government's massive sanitation program called Swachh Bharat. She's grateful for not having to use a public toilet, though she admits that many prefer not using any toilet at all.
Meanwhile, Meera, who lives in a slum in New Delhi, prefers to defecate in the open, at nightfall.
yeah, yeah, yeah ... same old boring cr@p. You'd think mentioning of these buzz words like "billions" and more "Billions" would give you the edge.
With the amount of population these figures don't mean much when you look at the number of mouths to feed in India. Even Bangladesh has taken over in GPD per capita.
Poverty line is about at the same level in India and Pakistan. Or should we compare the number of homeless people in India vs Pakistan, and arrive at the conclusion that Pakistan is better? 110 million vs 20 million.
And while you are at it, spend a few of those "billions of dollars" to provide a few extra toilets with running water to your public.
lol
Search the internet, you will find Indian sources.
Here is one.
https://www.cnet.com/news/india-spe...oblem with,every year from diarrheal diseases.
While you win the argument AND the award for being financially much much, much, superior to Pakistan who is at the verge of bankruptcy while you are the future financial hub of the planet earth.... remember one thing. "Money can't buy the taste".![]()
...Thanks for your elaborate explanation. The main points are:
1. Pakistan has strong enough defence
2. Will go nuclear if it starts losing
3. International help will come (well not the kind you are envisioning, not the usual help in terms of "talk")
4. If India enters Pakistan, it will face resistance from population (well again not exactly itll face resistance with Pak army, paramilitaries, militias who after losing the border war (which I am sure they won't and definitely not within 2-3 months but I am going with the best case scenerio for india)
so after losing the border they'll certainly retreat to urban centers know these are 10 of thousands of armed people in defensive, urban, fortified positions you can't take one city like that in 2-3 months imagine multiple cities in the same situation(since India is passing through densely populated center to pass through those areas- and it's not like you can pass through without capturing these centers is thousands of miles of territory- your supply lines will be a mess certainly not capable of fighting a 2-3 year war (it'll last that long because you have to take urban one by one)
I am sure Indian army/govt are aware of all these factors.(and that's why they are not fighting; they are not idiots like our bunch…)
The situation we were discussing was "if it becomes a national agenda, it can be done". Lets evaluate your arguments in that context:
1. The nos are still highly skewed in India's favor. India get a bloody nose but will prevail with some loses.
(but number aren't everything we have to take so many things into consideration
2. This is out of scope. Using Nuclear is a suicide option. People forget that India has better nuclear weapons (plutonium based) and also thermonuclear weapons. Not to mention better delivery systems compared to Pakistan. Not to mention various missile/air defence systems that are already deployed (AAD, PAD), being acquired (S-400) and designed (v2 of AAD/PAD) with a lot of help from Israel. (so check the context I was talking in, The nuclear option is certainly the suicidal of course no question there(BTW air defense system won't be of much help in an actual nuclear situation) but it was in a context of being pushed into the corner when you rush into Punjab (region where most Pakistani population lives in) this will be like cornering a cat cause when you threaten majority of the population this forces and already insecure country into using the nuclear option- doesn't matter who suffers more from it because in that situation of sheer survival that'll be the last thing on their mind)[/B]
3. We are taking about managing geopolitics here. India has done exceedingly well here historically even considering that it was on the other side of US and Arab countries. If you check, in the last 2 decades, India has all significant players on its side barring China. So, no there is no respite here. (Ill just repost the specific point I posted…)
“International pressure gets too hot - China will start provocations(not war but threats of it with troop movements, skirmishes this'll get India nervous) in Indian disputed territories”
4. We are not talking about occupying Pakistan but capturing/annexing PoK. We have successfully held Indian held Kashmir for 7 decades in face of extreme, provoked, armed insurgency and international pressure. So, dont see this as debilitating factor.(the armed resistance was more about armed forces themselves retreating into urban center and fighting from there not really about counter insurgency situation) (Yes I know but to get to that point you have to capture international areas with densely populated areas- at least during the duration of war (which I now believe can last at least two years- if China is taking care of the arms situation)
This is where the problem lies long war- opening up possibilities of external forces also capturing of large population centers, if it happens it'll be unprecedented, I certainly don't see modern warfare lasting that long)
We are talking about extreme scenarios here. In these cases, it's always the heavier player that prevails.(yes in Alexander's era nowadays there are nuances involved so it's not a hard and fast rule)
It’s hilarious how a thread asking about how long a ceasefire can remain in effect has morphed into a discussion on India invading Pakistan, nuking each other to smithereens, and basically turning the entire sub continent into ash. So I guess the answer is no, the ceasefire ain’t goona hold.
Guilty as charged
I am a defence nerd; I enjoy it (just saying don't take it too seriously guys...)
remember once having a long discussion about US invasion of USSR on some defence forum in the 2010s...![]()
yeah so you know don't mind me