New poll on Pakistani voter intentions

[hussain.r97]

New Poll on Pakistani Voter Intention - January 2018

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https://www.facebook.com/PakistanOn...FX3YfQxoroFdhmLqTsuc2XPW-XcDX8-A7XX-xalwwzdTQ

I am not sure what the methodology of this poll was, or who did it exactly, but I have contacted them to get the details. However, it does not seem so far from expectations.

 

[hussain.r97]

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All polls from the last year.

 

[Syed1]

How the hell did they predict that PPP is going to gain 20 seats when they are hardly managing 3000 votes compared to 115k and 90k for PML-N and PTI.

The next government will either be coalition PML-N and PPP or PTI and PPP.

 

[hussain.r97]

How the hell did they predict that PPP is going to gain 20 seats when they are hardly managing 3000 votes compared to 115k and 90k for PML-N and PTI.

The next government will either be coalition PML-N and PPP or PTI and PPP.

I think it's mainly due to PML-N dropping, and PTI+PPP staying the same as before. I wouldn't really give much attention to their seat predictions though, as you can never really tell the seat position by party percentage in a FPTP system.

Looking at their FB page, they are doing 2 polls per month up to the elections, but it seems like they are using some online weighted method, which while giving a good idea, will probably not be as precise as cellphone based polling. I've have contacted these guys to get more information, but it'll be good to have regular polling to have a general idea.

 

[Waseem]

Other than seats, it makes no sense that PPP has gained so much when they have literally disappeared from Punjab and KPK.

Doesn't make such sense to me.

 

[hussain.r97]

NA 53 Taxila and Wah Cantt poll shows PML-N in front

http://ipor.com.pk/2018/03/06/pml-n-may-win-the-na-53-seat/

A poll by IPOR (INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC OPINION RESEARCH) in NA 53 Taxila and Wah Cantt poll shows that PML-N may snatch this seat from PTI's
Ghulam Sarwar Khan. While the sample size for this survey is quite small, it is important to note that the same institute conducted a poll before the NA-4 bye election, and their prediction was very close to the actual results.

The NA-4 poll results are below:

http://ipor.com.pk/2017/10/25/constituency-poll-na-04-peshawar/

 

[hussain.r97]

New polls from March and April show PTI and PPP on the rise at the expense of PML-N. However, PML-N still have a commanding position seats wise due to holding 40% in Punjab compared to PTI's 31%.

Please note that seat projections are based on someone's own opinion/analysis of overall party position.

 

[hussain.r97]

New polls from March and April show PTI and PPP on the rise at the expense of PML-N. However, PML-N still have a commanding position seats wise due to holding 40% in Punjab compared to PTI's 31%.

Please note that seat projections are based on someone's own opinion/analysis of overall party position.

Dates for first row should read 25/3 - 13/4.

 

[Waseem]

New polls from March and April show PTI and PPP on the rise at the expense of PML-N. However, PML-N still have a commanding position seats wise due to holding 40% in Punjab compared to PTI's 31%.

Please note that seat projections are based on someone's own opinion/analysis of overall party position.

The sample size is way too small to come up with such a prediction especially about seats.

Having said that the actual situation could be PMLN, PTI and PPP getting similar number of seats and deciding factor will be which parties agree to form the alliance. I wouldn't want PTI to form any alliance with Zardari and obviously alliance with PMLN is out of question so i won't be surprised if PMLN-PPP end up form next government together.

 

[Waseem]

New polls from March and April show PTI and PPP on the rise at the expense of PML-N. However, PML-N still have a commanding position seats wise due to holding 40% in Punjab compared to PTI's 31%.

Please note that seat projections are based on someone's own opinion/analysis of overall party position.

The sample size is way too small to come up with such a prediction especially about seats.

Having said that the actual situation could be PMLN, PTI and PPP getting similar number of seats and deciding factor will be which parties agree to form the alliance. I wouldn't want PTI to form any alliance with Zardari and obviously alliance with PMLN is out of question so i won't be surprised if PMLN-PPP end up form next government together.

 

[hussain.r97]

The sample size is way too small to come up with such a prediction especially about seats.

Sample size isn't too bad. Looking through the sample sizes in other countries like the US, UK, etc, the average sample size is between 1000-2000 with a reasonably high level of accuracy.

 

[Angrez Pakistani]

Would be interesting to know if there was a poll that had actually ask people if they ever read the manifesto of any political parties before voting for them in the elections.

 

[hussain.r97]

Gallup Pakistan Public Pulse Poll Report 1 - Expectations and Fears about election 2018

Full Report - http://gallup.com.pk/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/Public-Pulse-on-Election-2018-Report-1-1.pdf

 

[hussain.r97]

Interestingly, according to the above poll by Gallup, only 33% of people have a very high chance of voting. 38% say there is a fair chance to vote, while 21% say there is no chance of them voting.

There is also a huge disparity between the number of men and women planning to vote, with 27% of women saying there is no chance of them voting, and only 25% saying they have a high chance of voting.

From the respondents who support PTI, only 43% say they have a high chance of voting.

 

[Syed1]

New polls from March and April show PTI and PPP on the rise at the expense of PML-N. However, PML-N still have a commanding position seats wise due to holding 40% in Punjab compared to PTI's 31%.

Please note that seat projections are based on someone's own opinion/analysis of overall party position.

This seems about right and I have an inkling that the final result might be close to this. However, huge question mark on PPP getting 58 seats when they have been nearly wiped out in Punjab and their ill-performance in Sindh/Karachi has further alienated people from them. The people of interior Sindh will still vote for them because Bhutto is still alive, but I think there are only about 30-40 seats in interior Sindh and PPP drop some of those on a regular basis. PTI also intends to challenge them in their home ground which may mean they also drop a few.


I think final count will be PML-N with 80, PTI with 70 and PPP with around 30 seats.



PTI would obviously not ally with PML-N or PPP and hence will have to sit with MQM/PSP/JI/etc.

 

[hussain.r97]

This seems about right and I have an inkling that the final result might be close to this. However, huge question mark on PPP getting 58 seats when they have been nearly wiped out in Punjab and their ill-performance in Sindh/Karachi has further alienated people from them. The people of interior Sindh will still vote for them because Bhutto is still alive, but I think there are only about 30-40 seats in interior Sindh and PPP drop some of those on a regular basis. PTI also intends to challenge them in their home ground which may mean they also drop a few.


I think final count will be PML-N with 80, PTI with 70 and PPP with around 30 seats.



PTI would obviously not ally with PML-N or PPP and hence will have to sit with MQM/PSP/JI/etc.

Agreed that these guys have majorly overstated PPP's number of seats.

I am actually personally involved in campaigning for PTI. I am co-coordinating ground teams. I can tell you, things are looking great for PTI in Karachi, and PTI are about to cause some dents to PPP in interior Sindh too. Everything really depends on whether or not PTI supporters actually go out and vote! One of my volunteers in Karachi found around 200 people in his neighbourhood supporting PTI, but had not had their vote registered or changed to Karachi.

 

[Syed1]

Agreed that these guys have majorly overstated PPP's number of seats.

I am actually personally involved in campaigning for PTI. I am co-coordinating ground teams. I can tell you, things are looking great for PTI in Karachi, and PTI are about to cause some dents to PPP in interior Sindh too. Everything really depends on whether or not PTI supporters actually go out and vote! One of my volunteers in Karachi found around 200 people in his neighbourhood supporting PTI, but had not had their vote registered or changed to Karachi.

Which reminds me I need to register my vote too, will book the flights as soon as the elections are announced. Can I register online?

 

[hussain.r97]

Which reminds me I need to register my vote too, will book the flights as soon as the elections are announced. Can I register online?

Bhai overseas voting is opening for us online. If you want to vote in Pakistan, you need to be registered by the 24th of April. You need to fill out some forms at an ECP display centre.

 

[Syed1]

Bhai overseas voting is opening for us online. If you want to vote in Pakistan, you need to be registered by the 24th of April. You need to fill out some forms at an ECP display centre.

Aray yaar I do not believe overseas voting will happen. We were hearing murmurs regarding it in the last elections as well and it got delayed to 2018 and just last week the ECP guy informed the SC that it might have to be delayed till 2023.


It is not in status quo's interest to have voting for overseas because that will hand an overwhelming majority to Imran. Heck he might even take 2/3rds in that case.

 

[Sarfarazian92]

Which reminds me I need to register my vote too, will book the flights as soon as the elections are announced. Can I register online?

Karachi sirf vote daalne ja rahe ho?

 

[Waseem]

This seems about right and I have an inkling that the final result might be close to this. However, huge question mark on PPP getting 58 seats when they have been nearly wiped out in Punjab and their ill-performance in Sindh/Karachi has further alienated people from them. The people of interior Sindh will still vote for them because Bhutto is still alive, but I think there are only about 30-40 seats in interior Sindh and PPP drop some of those on a regular basis. PTI also intends to challenge them in their home ground which may mean they also drop a few.

I think final count will be PML-N with 80, PTI with 70 and PPP with around 30 seats.


PTI would obviously not ally with PML-N or PPP and hence will have to sit with MQM/PSP/JI/etc.

My estimates are similar as well:

PMLN - 80
PTI - 80 (70 - 90)
PPP - 35

The reason why i think PTI can get between 70 - 90 seats is mainly due to situation in South Punjab. There are 48 seats in South Punjab and PMLN won most of them (or Independents joined them) but this time those Independents have formed a group campaigning for South Punjab as separate province. This group has many strong electables and many more will join them I believe their separate province slogan will win them them lots of seats. Most won't go back to PMLN or PPP as they failed on the promise previously so PTI has a chance to grab around 25-35 seats with their support in South Punjab alone.

 

[Waseem]

Only way PTI can form a government without PMLN/PPP/MMA (being very optimistic), if they form alliance with MQM/PSP in Khi, Grand Democratic Alliance in internal Sindh, non JUIF/PKMAP members in Balochistan, Independents from FATA and other parts of country.

Even if they form government like that, it would be quite tough to keep everyone happy for 5 years.

I think even worst case scenario for PTI would be to get around 55-60 seats so they will become major pressure group but not sure if Imran would be able to carry on after that or even if big names will stick around waiting for 2023 election.

 

[Bewal Express]

Bhai overseas voting is opening for us online. If you want to vote in Pakistan, you need to be registered by the 24th of April. You need to fill out some forms at an ECP display centre.

Can you give more information.

 

[saeedhk]

The PTI would need to strike an alliance with the PSP, PML-Q and woo independents into joining hands after the GE 2018 if Imran Khan is to become the PM.There is no or little chance othewise.

 

[Syed1]

Karachi sirf vote daalne ja rahe ho?

Irada tou yehi hai... I haven't taken a vacation in a while so the trip will serve dual purpose of voting and vacation.

 

[mmkextreme_1]

Aray yaar I do not believe overseas voting will happen. We were hearing murmurs regarding it in the last elections as well and it got delayed to 2018 and just last week the ECP guy informed the SC that it might have to be delayed till 2023.


It is not in status quo's interest to have voting for overseas because that will hand an overwhelming majority to Imran. Heck he might even take 2/3rds in that case.

To find out or track if online voting is allowed, where would one look?

 

[hussain.r97]

Can you give more information.

The forms quoted above are also available at the display centres, but it will be quicker if you print them at home and fill them from before. Make sure you take your CNIC card with you.

 

[hussain.r97]

Only way PTI can form a government without PMLN/PPP/MMA (being very optimistic), if they form alliance with MQM/PSP in Khi, Grand Democratic Alliance in internal Sindh, non JUIF/PKMAP members in Balochistan, Independents from FATA and other parts of country.

Even if they form government like that, it would be quite tough to keep everyone happy for 5 years.

I think even worst case scenario for PTI would be to get around 55-60 seats so they will become major pressure group but not sure if Imran would be able to carry on after that or even if big names will stick around waiting for 2023 election.

The PTI would need to strike an alliance with the PSP, PML-Q and woo independents into joining hands after the GE 2018 if Imran Khan is to become the PM.There is no or little chance othewise.

It's still very early days, but judging from the feedback I am recieving from ground volunteers, PTI won't need to form alliances in Karachi, they will probably win most of the seats there on their own. Even in internal Sindh, PTI had almost no support in 2013, but feedback from internal Sindh suggests that PTI may dent PPP in interior Sindh by stealing a few key seats here and there, mainly in urban Sindh as well as Tharparkar and Umarkot.

 

[Varun]

Agreed that these guys have majorly overstated PPP's number of seats.

I am actually personally involved in campaigning for PTI. I am co-coordinating ground teams. I can tell you, things are looking great for PTI in Karachi, and PTI are about to cause some dents to PPP in interior Sindh too. Everything really depends on whether or not PTI supporters actually go out and vote! One of my volunteers in Karachi found around 200 people in his neighbourhood supporting PTI, but had not had their vote registered or changed to Karachi.

You are? I'm a lurker here when it comes to Pakistani politics and clearly remember you turning your back on Imran Khan not long ago. What's changed?

 

[hussain.r97]

You are? I'm a lurker here when it comes to Pakistani politics and clearly remember you turning your back on Imran Khan not long ago. What's changed?

Went through a strange phase

I had some criticisms about PTI, but the fact is that no party in the world is absolutely perfect. PPP and PML-N have far bigger issues.

 

[Mian]

If there is no merger of PSP and MQM before elections i can guarantee PTI will endup as the biggest party in Karachi thanks to the divided muhajir votebank. This time Imran contesting from Karachi will give their campaign a boost too

 

[Syed1]

It's still very early days, but judging from the feedback I am recieving from ground volunteers, PTI won't need to form alliances in Karachi, they will probably win most of the seats there on their own. Even in internal Sindh, PTI had almost no support in 2013, but feedback from internal Sindh suggests that PTI may dent PPP in interior Sindh by stealing a few key seats here and there, mainly in urban Sindh as well as Tharparkar and Umarkot.

Just checked... my vote is located in Korangi while my permanent address and folk's current residence is in Defense Phase 4.




This is how MQM wins elections.....

 

[hussain.r97]

If there is no merger of PSP and MQM before elections i can guarantee PTI will endup as the biggest party in Karachi thanks to the divided muhajir votebank. This time Imran contesting from Karachi will give their campaign a boost too

Bhai, it is not just that. It genuinely seems like majority of Urdu speakers are supporting PTI.

The difference between 2013 and now is that last time PTI could not run a ground campaign in Karachi due to MQM militancy. This time there is not fear, there is a full on ground campaign running in Karachi. Also, last time there was MASSIVE rigging in Karachi. This time round, I am even hearing of massive support for PTI from places like Lyari ....

Divided MQM or not, PTI are going to take a massive share of seats from Karachi. If MQM stay divided, then that's even better, we might win a couple of extra seats.

 

[hussain.r97]

Just checked... my vote is located in Korangi while my permanent address and folk's current residence is in Defense Phase 4.




This is how MQM wins elections.....

Someone told me an ECP officer came to their house and registered his late grandmother saying "no worries, she is still eligable to vote!".

MQM wins by voting on behalf of dead people and overseas Pakistanis.

 

[hussain.r97]

Just checked... my vote is located in Korangi while my permanent address and folk's current residence is in Defense Phase 4.




This is how MQM wins elections.....

I am not too sure about this, but if you know someone there, you can still get your vote changed by filling out the vote change form and posting it to them, and then getting them to submit it at the ECP display centre. The only problem is will it be posted before 24th April?

Otherwise, you could just vote from Korangi

 

[Mian]

Bhai, it is not just that. It genuinely seems like majority of Urdu speakers are supporting PTI.

The difference between 2013 and now is that last time PTI could not run a ground campaign in Karachi due to MQM militancy. This time there is not fear, there is a full on ground campaign running in Karachi. Also, last time there was MASSIVE rigging in Karachi. This time round, I am even hearing of massive support for PTI from places like Lyari ....

Divided MQM or not, PTI are going to take a massive share of seats from Karachi. If MQM stay divided, then that's even better, we might win a couple of extra seats.

Thats even better if PTI is gaining ground there and isn't just depending on divided muhajir vote bank. I heard 80% of Mush's APML also joined PTI recently

 

[hussain.r97]

Thats even better if PTI is gaining ground there and isn't just depending on divided muhajir vote bank. I heard 80% of Mush's APML also joined PTI recently

At this stage, most of the urdu speaking areas seem to be with PTI, as well as Gulistan-e-Johar. Areas like Korangi, Landhi, Malir, Orangi, and Layari are the ones that need the most work.

 

[Mian]

At this stage, most of the urdu speaking areas seem to be with PTI, as well as Gulistan-e-Johar. Areas like Korangi, Landhi, Malir, Orangi, and Layari are the ones that need the most work.

PTI gained ground in Layari during LG too but Malir is a different story they will have to do something extra ordinary to take it.

 

[Syed1]

I am not too sure about this, but if you know someone there, you can still get your vote changed by filling out the vote change form and posting it to them, and then getting them to submit it at the ECP display centre. The only problem is will it be posted before 24th April?

Otherwise, you could just vote from Korangi

Just figured out... my whole family's vote has been shifted to Korangi under the new delimitation and our house now falls under "Korangi constituency" so going to a display center won't help either. PTI won from our area last time and it is generally a middle to upper middle class/elite area with overwhelming majority supporting PTI hence the shifted some of the votes to the next constituency in Korangi which is a poorer, lesser literate area with more support for MQM and PPP.


If this is not pre-poll rigging I don't know what is

 

[hussain.r97]

Just figured out... my whole family's vote has been shifted to Korangi under the new delimitation and our house now falls under "Korangi constituency" so going to a display center won't help either. PTI won from our area last time and it is generally a middle to upper middle class/elite area with overwhelming majority supporting PTI hence the shifted some of the votes to the next constituency in Korangi which is a poorer, lesser literate area with more support for MQM and PPP.


If this is not pre-poll rigging I don't know what is

That is really strange because DHA Phase IV is still in NA-247 (formely NA-250) according to the new boundaries. Your names have been put on the wrong list, seemingly intentionally.

Not sure what can be done, but I am going to raise this with PTI, they should be aware of it.

 

[hussain.r97]

[MENTION=138254]Syed1[/MENTION] DHA Phase 4 is well and truly in NA-247 with the rest of DHA. Your name has been added to the wrong list!

https://www.ecp.gov.pk/Documents/de...ark/National Assembly/Sindh/Karachi South.jpg

 

[Syed1]

[MENTION=138254]Syed1[/MENTION] DHA Phase 4 is well and truly in NA-247 with the rest of DHA. Your name has been added to the wrong list!

https://www.ecp.gov.pk/Documents/de...ark/National Assembly/Sindh/Karachi South.jpg

Thanks for the info..


Ok so my youngest sis who only got CNIC recently is registered in Gizri Phase 4 (where we live) while the rest of us have been moved to Korangi. My parents voted in the last election in Gizri so this karawai happened between 2013 and now. They are going to go to display center and get it fixed. As for me all I can do is hope and pray they allow overseas voting with facility to fix voter registration while outside of Pakistan.

 

[Syed1]

Even if I go to Pak and go to Korangi to vote, they won't let me vote there because the address on my card says Gizri, DHA and they will just turn me away saying you are in the wrong area


Really angry right now

 

[hussain.r97]

Thanks for the info..


Ok so my youngest sis who only got CNIC recently is registered in Gizri Phase 4 (where we live) while the rest of us have been moved to Korangi. My parents voted in the last election in Gizri so this karawai happened between 2013 and now. They are going to go to display center and get it fixed. As for me all I can do is hope and pray they allow overseas voting with facility to fix voter registration while outside of Pakistan.

I have raised your case with PTI, and they said they will look into it. This shouldn't be happening, it is pre-poll rigging as many people may not end up checking their registration.

If you can somehow fill this form and get it to a display centre, your vote will be changed. https://www.ecp.gov.pk/Documents/voter forms 151617/voter forms final/form17urdu.pdf

 

[Mian]

Even if I go to Pak and go to Korangi to vote, they won't let me vote there because the address on my card says Gizri, DHA and they will just turn me away saying you are in the wrong area


Really angry right now

Nah you can still vote if your vote is transferred to that constituency and you live in other one. My address on card is from another constituency while my vote is in another constituency and i was able to vote without any issue last time. Address NIC doesn't matter

 

[Syed1]

Nah you can still vote if your vote is transferred to that constituency and you live in other one. My address on card is from another constituency while my vote is in another constituency and i was able to vote without any issue last time. Address NIC doesn't matter

Ok thanks for the info.... ab tou Korangi mein bhi PTI ko jitaingaye inki aisay ki taisi

 

[Napa]

Irada tou yehi hai... I haven't taken a vacation in a while so the trip will serve dual purpose of voting and vacation.

The effort you are ready to make for the sake of your country is quite admirable.