‘Danger looms as India can manipulate Indus flows’
India cannot abruptly stop the flow of the Indus River or completely divert its tributaries and in the near term, a greater threat looms for Pakistan with New Delhi in a position to use the timing of its dam operations to manipulate river flows within the range of its technical capacity, according to the Ecological Threat Report 2025.
Even small disruptions at critical moments can hurt Pakistan’s agriculture sector as Islamabad lacks sufficient storage to buffer variations, says the report released by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) — a Sydney-based independent, non-partisan and non-profit think tank dedicated to shifting the world’s focus to peace as a positive, achievable and tangible measure of human well-being and progress.
The report warns that Pakistan’s dam capacity can hold only about 30 days of Indus flow and any prolonged cut will be disastrous if not managed.
However, at present, India’s ability to “turn off” the flow of rivers is constrained by its infrastructure.
Ecological Threat Report warns even small disruptions can hurt country’s farm sector in near term; says Pakistan lacks sufficient storage to buffer variations
“All of India’s dams on the western rivers are run-of-the-river projects with minimal storage,” the report says.
While the implications are unclear, the rising tensions in South Asia and the Middle East are potentially linked to the future of water diplomacy for the Indus.
“For Pakistan, the danger is acute. If India were truly to cut off or significantly reduce Indus flows, Pakistan’s densely populated plains would face severe water shortages, especially in winter and dry seasons. Indeed, about 80 per cent of Pakistan’s irrigated agriculture depends on Indus basin rivers,” the report reads.
Foreign involvement
The report says that following the signing of the defence treaty between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, the kingdom will most likely support Islamabad in any conflict with India.
“This is likely to be supportive of the continuation of the Indus agreement as India is more likely to think carefully before creating a pretext for war.”
If the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) unravels, the involvement of other players like China or even Afghanistan can further complicate matters.
“For now, the IWT remains officially bilateral, but the 2025 episode showed that global powers have a stake in preventing water conflicts,” warns the report.
Internationally, India’s suspension of the IWT raised concerns about setting a precedent.
China, a close ally of Pakistan and an upstream riparian, also took interest in the affair.
In May this year, China’s state media announced an acceleration of the Mohmand Dam project in Pakistan — a hydropower initiative financed by Beijing — framing it as a gesture of support to Islamabad in the face of India’s water “threats”.
The implication was clear: China signalled solidarity with Pakistan, effectively cautioning India against pushing Islamabad too far on water.
For the first time, India began operating its dams outside the treaty constraints.
‘Reservoir flushing’
In May, Indian authorities carried out “reservoir flushing” on the Chenab River’s Salal and Baglihar dams without notifying Pakistan.
This operation, which involves emptying reservoirs to flush out silt, had been forbidden under the treaty (or at least tightly regulated) because it causes sudden downstream flow changes.
India proceeded unilaterally, aiming to boost its dams’ storage and power generation capacity now that it considered itself unbound by IWT limits.
The immediate impact was dramatic: sections of the Chenab in Pakistan’s Punjab ran dry for a few days, as India’s dam gates were shut, then released sediment-laden torrents when opened.
The IWT between India and Pakistan has acted as a core conflict resolution tool and point of cooperation for 60 years.
India’s suspension of the treaty this year marks a period of heightened tension between the two countries.
There was no armed conflict over water in these instances. In fact, the IWT often served as a safety valve, providing legal and diplomatic processes to address grievances that might otherwise provoke unilateral retaliation.
“However, these arbitrated conflicts have accumulated over time to reduce trust even as cooperation continued,” the IEP says in its report.
Report warns that Pakistan’s dam capacity can hold only about 30 days of Indus flow and any prolonged cut will be disastrous if not managed.
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