As I posted in another thread, we strongly need to first secure a draw. Can't emphasize that enough.
There are 4 tests played at Napier that have gone into the 4th inning. Here are the 4th inning totals and results:
Test 1292 (SL won): NZ 185 all out @ 2.2 runs/over
Test 1746 (match drawn): SL 7 for no loss @ 4.7 runs/over
Test 1868 (ENG won): NZ 431 all out @ 3.6 runs/over
Test 1900 (match drawn): NZ 220 for 5 @ 4.3 runs/over
What this means is that we'll need to give NZ an asking rate of AT LEAST 4.0 runs/over.
If we are to bowl at them for 70 overs, that's a target of 280, meaning we make 280 + 248 = 528 total, or 528 - 128 = 400 in the next 90 + 20 = 110 overs.
If we are to bowl at them for 80 overs, that's a target of 320, meaning we make 320 + 248 = 568 total, or 568 - 128 = 440 in the next 90 + 10 = 100 overs.
To score another 400+ runs, we need at least 2 new 100s and a couple of 50s. Probably too drastic a change from 3 middle-order ducks in the first inning?
More importantly, we need to really increase our own scoring rate once the deficit has been converted to a lead of 100 or more.