Accountability
PTI promised to build a task force to launch a drive to recover looted national wealth parked in offshore tax havens and we know for a fact that this is happening with about 500m recovered just recently and action in progress against others who looted the nation’s wealth with an effort towards recovering it.
However, PTI also promised to make NAB independent. On this, I feel they have failed. Yes, NAB has been arresting and pursuing the likes of Shahbaz, Nawaz, Zardari and Mariam. However, what about the open inquiries against Pervaiz Elahi, Pervez Khattak,and Mehmood Khan, Babar Awan, Zulfi Bukhari, Liaquat Ali Jatoi. Why are they not being treated the same way as the others have? The only PTI member to have been arrested was Aleem Khan whereas several other members are also facing NAB enquiries which as it seems are not being pursued with the same enthusiasm as the ones against PML-N and PPP leadership.
Thus, on one end they have done a good job of pursuing cases against senior leadership of other political parties in order to recover the looted wealth but they have failed at maintaining impartiality and across the board accountability via NAB. Currently NAB seems like a body used for political engineering rather than one that is independent and neutral as it should be.
Affordable Housing
PTI started the Naya Pakistan Housing Scheme with the goal to build 5 million housing units for the
middle class and lower income segments in 5 years through the private sector. This is a brilliant program and one for which the government should definitely be applauded for. This is such an amazing project because not only does it provide affordable housing but also end up creating jobs providing a boost to the industry and the economy as a whole. However, this seems to be a rather ambitious project and so far we do not see anything created. Whether PTI can live up to this promise is yet to be seen but it does look rather unlikely.
Healthcare
Even though the government has introduced the Sehat Insaf Card program and has been involved in building hospitals all over the country, the overall performance in healthcare has been below satisfactory. 50% of the total budget from 18-19 was utilized for ongoing projects which include some of the recent hospitals that have been inaugurated by PTI. The remaining 50% of the budget was dedicated towards new projects. However, keep two things in mind when looking at this. Number 1, the budget towards healthcare has not increased from previous year and secondly out of the 50% allocated towards new projects most of it is going towards the Sehat Insaf Card program the remaining budget for the new projects is going mostly towards upgrade of existing facilities and replacement of old equipment.
Essentially, what that means is that new healthcare projects under the PTI government are extremely limited and there are practically no new hospitals being created. What’s worse is that for 19-20 the budget for healthcare decreased further. This is a worrying trend. It was expected that the government would allocate a higher proportion of the budget towards healthcare and education. Overall, the expenditure in healthcare has dropped from 0.29% of the total budget in 17-18 to 0.25% in 18-90 and now to 0.15% in 19-20.
Education
Similar to budget cuts that we saw in healthcare, the education budget has also decreased from 2.04% of the total budget in 17-18 to 1.74% in 18-19 and now 1.06%. Again, an extremely worrying trend. The bulk of the budget has been allocated towards school education which means HEC has to face most of the cuts. This means significant cuts in ongoing university programs across public-sector universities and all new programs having to be either postponed or cancelled. Recently announced initiatives will have to be postponed or cancelled. These include the university in Hyderabad and the advanced study centre at Prime Minister House. Similarly, the plans for expansion of existing universities and the promises of opening new universities in the districts that do not have this educational facility will have to be shelved.
The cuts might be deep enough to even having to close down some of the ongoing development projects. If universities started multiyear projects last year or the year before, and the funding was supposed to come over the period of the next few years, these projects will come under pressure and universities might have to either get resources for these projects from other sources or might have to cut down on a few of them.
What’s sad is that Universities in Balochistan will be the biggest victims of the change of policy by the federal government. In the fiscal year 2018-19, the total required expenditures of public sector universities in Balochistan were Rs4.594 billion. HEC only provided Rs2.81 billion and the remainder was covered with the help of borrowing, provincial government grants and revenue generation by university administrations. In 2019-20, expenditures of universities in Balochistan will increase whereas the HEC grant will decrease. This will further reduce breathing space for universities in Balochistan and they will find it extremely hard even to finance their day-to-day operations.
With regards to development of education other than the education fund for young entrepreneurs there really hasn’t been an innovative development program presented by the government
One of the best things the government has done is with regards to the Madrassah’s. They have started to register Madrassah’s all over the country and have introduced mathematics, literacy and other formal subjects within Madrassah curriculums.
Media
PTI made promises regarding making PEMRA autonomous so it does not become a political tool in the hands of any government to target the freedom of the electronic media. However, they have failed miserably in this task. Recently 21 news channels were issued notices by the Pakistan Electronic Media Regulatory Authority (PEMRA) and three were taken off air without being given the opportunity to plead their case.
The freedom of press has taken a step backwards under the current government. Censoring interviews of Bilawal, Mariam and Zardari is one thing but there has also been a complete ban on showing the narrative or viewpoints of the Pashtun Tahafuz Movement (PTM).
On one hand a new policy introduced via PEMRA states that it will not allow any leader of the opposition to go on television who has been convicted or is facing trial but then Bilawal’s speeches are not allowed to be aired on TV for no specific reason even though he is not convicted or facing any trial. Moreover, PEMRA code of conduct restricts the broadcast of sub judicial matters, then how is it that PTI leaders have been allowed to comment on Zardari’s and Sharif’s cases pending in the courts? PEMRA allows people like Taliban spokesman Ehsanullah Ehsan and Musharraf, who has been declared a absconder, to be given air time however, when it comes to leaders of opposing political parties this is a complete no no.
Media should be held accountable if they are spreading false news or propaganda, but it can never be dictated what to show or write and what not to publish or telecast. If journalists cannot feel secure about breaking stories or publishing dissenting views, and they are pressured through their organizations to mute their Twitter accounts, then this can be termed as a dictatorial step and an effort to curb the media.
Minority Rights
This is one of the areas where I had extremely high hopes from the current government. However, it is sad to see that minority rights have not improved even under PTI. It is unfortunate that Imran Khan succumbed to pressure and ended up removing Dr Atif R Mian from the EAC for being an Ahmedi. However, for this I do not hold PTI completely responsible. Yes, they did get pressurized but most of this pressure was coming from opposing political parties. I was happy to see the support for the minorities coming from senior members of PTI. Especially, Fawad Chaudhary who even referred to this mindset as being extremists.
In my opinion, PTI in public at least speaks a lot about minority rights and it feels as though they do want to support and push for improved rights for all minorities including Ahmedi’s however, due to the pressure by the right wing and opposing political parties they have not been able to do much in this regard.
Having said that I feel as though PTI could have done a lot more for other religious minorities if not for the Ahmedi’s. The PTI government has failed to give representation to Hindus, Christians, Sikhs, Ahmadis and other religious minorities in the country, in its government. No minority representative has been made a cabinet member in the PTI government at centre, with 21 members, Punjab (23 ministers), Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (11) or even in Balochistan (10) where the PTI is a coalition partner. On the other hand, Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) government in Sindh must be credited for including one minority community member, Hari Ram Kishori Lal, among its total eight members.
Public Order and Safety
PTI has increased the budget allocated towards public order and safety with the bulk of the increase going towards police expenditure and the remaining going towards law courts and administration of public order. However, even though there is an increased expenditure on police we do not see any reforms taking place. PTI promised to de-politicise police after coming into power but they have already changed three police chief in Punjab, in a year, where they are the ruling party. The Police Reforms Commission which was setup in the early few months of PTI’s government has not pretty much become defunct.
The previous government brought in some very good reforms within the Punjab police but the current leadership have not been able to extend on these and improve these further. There is obviously a lot of room for improvement here but so far nothing has been done. However, PTI do insist that they remain committed to bringing reforms to the police so this is one of those things where we have to wait and see how it goes.
Environment and Climate
There are some amazing initiatives within this department and PTI have to be applauded for this performance with regards to environment and climate. The banning of plastic bags, implementation of 10 billion trees initiative, the appointment of a climate change advisor. These are all steps in the right direction and more than any previous government has ever done.
The Ministry of Climate change is spending a lot of money on the "Clean Green Pakistan" movement but it should not ignore other factors either. There is a major reduction on the expenditure for waste water management. Considering how climate change can and will impact Pakistan in the future a lot more needs to be done in this area. However, it is a good sign that PTI is taking this seriously and is moving in the right direction.
Water and Power
As mentioned earlier, PTI has significantly decreased the expenditure on waste water management but nonetheless the government has a few initiatives in place in order to increase accessibility to clean water and have also been working on the desalination plant in Karachi. These initiatives are in progress and I expect to see these come to fruition during the tenure of the government. The government has not pursued a crackdown on the water mafia in Karachi which is extremely sad.
With regards to water shortage and PTI’s promise of building small dams all over the country I do not see much happening but it is still early and there is a lot of time to work on this. Mohmand dam’s launch was recently shelved again, the Nai Gaj dam is facing issues with regards to its cost, Dadhocha Dam is still in proposal mode as well as the Chirah Dam project.
PTI had promised to build 350 damns in KPK during its first tenure but only ended up building 8. It seems as though the promises made by PTI for dam building are rather unrealistic. However, a few projects are underway and even though some projects are facing difficulties they may still end up seeing light of day during the tenure of the government. The biggest issue the government will face in this regard is the construction of the Diamer-Bhasha dam which seems like a dream and will most probably never be constructed.
With regards to the power sector the PTI government is still struggling in managing this properly. However, with the whole circular debt issue that was handed down to the government this is a monumental task and one which will probably take time. Also, the government is talking about initiatives for alternative energy sources which is good to hear. Overall, so far one gets positive vibes from the government with regards to this area but words need to be put into action.
Economy
This one is a monster and PTI has messed this up big time. The rupee has plunged, growth has halved, interest rates have shot up and so has inflation. None of the economic metrics are looking good. In fact, they are extremely worrying. Both agricultural and industrial sectors have been performing rather poorly under the leadership of PTI.
If nothing else, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) has to be given credit for informing the nation of the serious economic challenges that Pakistan faced during the tenure of the last government. After all, they were not just informing us of the problems but also making every Pakistani believe that it has the solution to all these problems. But once in power, we started to hear a completely different story. Simply stated the party now says that it does not have any solutions.
What was the basis of the economic plan prepared before the elections? Did it not know the economic situation in the country? Which particular aspect of the economy was not known? Which macroeconomic indicators were not known? PTI had several members in the last parliament and some of them were part of important standing committees. As part of these important committees, the members had access to key information about our economy. They could invite anyone from the government or seek information from major stakeholders including ministries, regulatory authorities, State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), public sector companies. Basically, PTI needs to explain the rationale on which they prepared their plan and also inform the nation what was not known to them and why didn’t they know.
Even after coming to power, they had enormous opportunities to take corrective actions. The supplementary budget presented in September 2018 was an opportunity to announce revised estimates in all respects – revenue, expenditure, and resultant fiscal deficit. The numbers were indeed revised but why then the record slippages? In January another supplementary budget was presented. Another opportunity to make correct forecasts. Again, slippages on a massive scale. What justification of revenue & fiscal deficit slippages within months? Is it normal? NO. What does it show of the PTI government in terms of quality? Extremely poor to say the least.
Not just before the elections but even after winning the elections, Prime Minister Imran Khan announced that he will not seek International Monetary Fund (IMF) assistance or go to friendly countries.
If PTI’s performance was outstanding and the economic difficulties were only due to the poor economic management of the previous rulers, why did the PM change his entire economic team? That included chairman Board of Investment (BOI), chairman Federal Board of Revenue (FBR), SBP governor, finance secretary, petroleum minister, and most important the finance minister. The dream of Naya Pakistan was only going to be converted into reality by the finance minister. Asad Umar was the poster boy. He was the brain. Either the decision of the prime minister is extremely poor or he is accepting the failure of his economic team.
The main concern of the PTI government is the poor state of the economy that they inherited from the PML-N government. There can be arguments from both sides but what is the standard way of determining the status of the economy? Various macroeconomic indicators help us to understand whether a particular country has done well or not. The same indicators are used by leading global rating agencies like Moody’s and S&P to classify every country in terms of its economic performance.
Suddenly those worldwide standards are not acceptable. Cannot be funnier than this. Interestingly, there’s only one that they would like to pick up and talk about – current account deficit. All others like Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, size of GDP, per capita GDP, inflation, discount rate, revenue tax collection, foreign direct investment (FDI), etc. are not of any concern. They are also not concerned at the state of infrastructure development, including power generation, development projects like motorways, Gwadar development and quality public sector transportation projects. PTI government is also oblivious that the security situation in the country, as it existed in 2013, was a serious impediment to economic activity. The entire security scenario has completely changed for the better.
Of course, there were weaknesses in the economy most prominent being current account deficit. Till 2016 end, there was no issue with regard to current account deficit which had been kept in reasonable control. In 2017, it started to rise primarily due to the significant increase in import of plant & machinery, especially, related to power projects. The 3 LNG projects which are now producing 3600 MGW of electricity, were imported during this time. So, at least, there is some justification for rising current account deficit.
The ideal way to improve the current account deficit is to increase exports. In spite of massive and unprecedented devaluation in the last 10 months, exports have not shown any increase. In fact, they are slightly down. The reduction in current account deficit has been largely achieved through a reduction in imports. Overall imports have reduced by approximately dollars 4 billion; more than 2 billion have come as a result of the reduced import of plant & machinery. The policy to contain imports have helped in bringing down current account deficit but it’s important to understand the downside of this policy. It has largely contributed to the overall slowing down of the economy.
Commitments such as providing 10 million jobs were made weeks before the elections. 10 million jobs means an average of 2 million jobs per year. That is only possible if GDP growth is more than 7% per annum. If growth rates of 3% or less were a natural consequence of PML-N policies, then why was such a monumental commitment made in July 2018?
According to all independent sources, including multilateral agencies, the next few years are going to be even worse in all respects. GDP growth is expected to be around 2.5% while inflation will be in the range of 13%. The discount rate is expected to go further up in the range of 15-16%. All this will obviously have a devastating impact on the overall economy.
Others
Other areas which I have not gone into detail are tourism, PTI has done an amazing job of promoting tourism in Pakistan and has taken some brilliant initiatives in this regard. Foreign Affairs leaves a lot to be desired. The Trump meeting, for me, was a failure we ended up with another cut in our aid and involvement in the Afghan peace process. I believe we held the cards here with regards to Afghanistan and could have played those better but did not. With regards to transportation I have mixed views, the previous government did a lot on public transportation and PTI government has promised to expand on that but nothing has been done so far. Railways was and still is a mess, this is really something the government should focus on. They have, however, done an amazing job of handling PIA.
