You make good points and I generally agree with them. As for the 2014 Aus tour Ive often said here that he bowled better than the figures suggest and the tour was the making of him. However its very hollow excuse to say that Ashwin was DENIED some great performances in Aus and SA due to being dropped. There is also a good likelihood that he may have been carted around thus further damaging his numbers. The nitty gritty reasons are fine but in the larger context not that relevant.
For eg lets look at Yasir here. When I saw the Aussie lineup the first day of the first Test I knew that Yasir was in big trouble due to Aussies have around 7 left handers in the team. He has always struggled against left handers but it just so happens that there aren't many usually in most teams so he has never had to face a lineup filled with them. But even before this tour he was def better against right handers. Now I don't know the specific stats and who knows he may actually have a better statistic record against left handers (before this series - highly doubt it), but for anyone who has followed him closely it was clear that he struggled to work over good left handers, and didn't have many good plans.
A month ago the Aussie lineup had the following: Joe Burns, Peter Nevill, Adam Voges, Callum Ferguson. Meaning 5 of the top 7 were right handers. They were ALL replaced by left handed batsmen. Now again its hypothetical but I am dead certain that if Yasir was bowling to the lineup of a month ago, he would have done better and certainly had plans which have yielded success. That is actually a big thing but quoting that rings as an excuse.
Anyways....
Look Im not at all saying Yasir>Ashwin by any means. Neither am I saying Yasir is certifiably better than Ashwin in Aus, Eng, SA. Ashwin seems the guy who obsesses a lot over his game and is improving every year and is unrecognisable from the one a few years ago whereas Yasir seems to have stunted in his growth. But the narrative here in the past few days is as if Yasir is some really poor spinner who is not even in the same league as Ashwin. Yasir's struggles don't erase Ashwin's own struggles and bringing in context, captaincy decisions etc doesnt wash the record away. Till he actually goes to these places and fixes that you cant automatically put him significantly above Yasir. Its almost as if somehow Ashwin's record has become better or sth.
I think both of us have pretty much similar views reg this topic except in one point. And that too is because we are looking at it from different lens from where the respective viewpoints are justified.
Before I mention what that is, let me address a few points.
1. I do remember you talking about Ash's 2014 Aus tour in a positive way, analyzing things beyond just stats. This was several months back when very few used to give him credit for that tour. I was just adding a point reg his bowling performance in Aus in the last post.
2. As for point you raised about 7 lefties reg Yasir, its a fair point. But issue is that Yasir didn't just average 80. He averaged 80 at 4+ rpo which changed the complexion of the games. Ash too had to bowl to predominantly righties during 2014 tour. Personally I felt Yasir was always better against lefties than righties...he does have balanced stats against both...but that's another topic really.
3. Moving back to this issue, I am not saying Ashwin's STATS would be good if he hadn't been dropped. I know for a fact that 2014 Ashwin would have sucked in NZ, Southampton, Trent Bridge (most likely). He may have picked a few wickets but gone for more runs. Even this Ashwin, one can't say anything with guarantee though we can just say he is likely to do relatively better in those pitches.
What I was really talking about was those certain tracks where he could have had some memorable performances which would have raised his stature. And even in those tracks, I EXCLUDE the innings where things can't be predicted properly - like Lords 1st innings or Adelaide 1st innings etc.
There are basically 5 tracks outside Asia where Ashwin could have played (he played in 2 of them). Here's the breakdown:
1. Lords - I don't know how Ashwin would have fared in the first innings. But in the 2nd innings with the ball ACTUALLY turning, England under the pump and full of lefties....odds were really high that he would bowl us to victory (with a 3fer or 5fer). Even if he had done that by doing well in just the 2nd innings, it wouldn't have been as good as Yasir's Lord performance cos he urned the game on its head in the first innings. Dunno what Ashwin would have done in 1st innings but 2nd innings, success chances were really high (especially if you consider that Ash took 3 wickets in Oval 1st innings with minimal to no turn).
2. Oval - While Ash did well in the only innings he bowled, I can't say with conviction that he would have taken 5fer in 2nd innings. It depends on how much the pitch turns. But if you look at history, Oval 2nd innings produced good returns for both Ajmal and Yasir...both of whom ended with 4fer and 5fer in 2nd innings after a sedate 1st innings.
3. Durban - This is a track where Robin Peterson (no disrespect to him) troubled Indians and took a 4fer. Jaddu took a 6fer (albeit expensively due to no support from the other end). How likely was Ash to do well on a turner? This was the track Herath won a game for SL when they toured last.
4. Sydney - Sydney is a unique pitch these days. Whatever it gives you in the 2nd innings, it takes away in the first innings. Patta turns into a turner pitch. Ash fought very well in both innings....Warner scored a swashbuckling 100 in first innings (88 SR) and through immense efforts he took him out (was the only guy who looked like picking wickets). When the track turned in 2nd innings, he took him out cheaply again. The way he was bowling in 2nd innings, he was likely to take 6fer or even 8fer....took 4 out of 5 wickets down. The point to note here is that in the FINAL innings after Ashwin took a 4fer, Lyon took 2 wickets and couldn't bowl Aus to a victory (why I mention this point will be revealed in next point).
5. Adelaide - This is the track that turned out to be a bouncy rank turner towards the end. Lyon took a 5fer and 7fer in this test. Ash didn't play. Even if he assume Ash hadn't done well in 1st innings, odds were too high for him to miss out in 2nd innings.
So out of these 5 favourable tracks, Ash played in just 2 of them and got like 8 wickets in 3 innings (one of the innings was truncated due to quick declaration). The one innings when the pitch objectively turned resulted in a 4fer.
Now we could say there is no guarantee that Ash would take a 5fer if he had played in those tracks.
That is absolutely true but the question is:
Would he have failed in all of them?
We can explain away a few instances saying he could have been out of form, out of rhythm, batsmen smashed him, not having luck, catches dropped but can we explain away ALL the 5 instances?
Highly unlikely. Best case scenario is he would have got a 4fer or 5fer in all...worst case scenario is a 4fer or 5fer in 2-3 instances atleast. That's what circumstantial evidence points to.
And those performances would have helped Ashwin's stature. His stats would not be good but he would have memorable performances (with a role in atleast 1 win - Lords).
Its because Ash never got a proper chance, people raise eyebrows the moment he doesn't pick up wicket on a flat Asian track. If he had got those outside Asia chances, people wouldn't be so scrutinizing though they may still say he has to prove himself in flat tracks (which would be 100% true - he still hasn't proven himself on flat tracks in an unquestionable way).
That's the point I was making.
As for our viewpoints, here's what it is:
Your viewpoint - Yasir and Ash are both very good in Asia. Outside Asia, Yasir didn't do well in certain tracks but he did play a MAIN role in 2 wins. Ashwin at this moment does NOT have that. But since Yasir hasn't contained scoring rate on tracks other than Lord's and Oval and considering Ash has done it along with a decent Aus tour....I would call Ash to be slightly ahead of Yasir. Yasir for all his flaws still has feats which Ash doesn't which is why the gap between them is wafer thin.
That's a perfectly valid viewpoint if you look at it from that lens.
My viewpoint is - There are 3 areas in which both can be compared - Asia, outside Asia (favourable conditions where one is supposed to win games), unfavourable conditions (where one is supposed to offer control).
Asia - Both are good.
Outside Asia (favourable conditions) - Yasir won 2 games.
Outside Asia (unfavourable conditions) - Ash exerted better control while picking few wickets.
If we stop here, it would be even stevens. But issue is that Ash never got the chances Yasir got. There is overwhelming circumstantial evidence that he would have clicked in atleast 2-3 out of 5 chances (explained above). Till Aus tour, I considered both to be even stevens with Yasir having the bragging rights. But post Aus tour, I consider Ash to be clearly better than Yasir. Its not like they can't be compared but just that at this moment, one is a clearly better spinner than another taking all things into account. As both play more games, the viewpoints will either change or strengthen.
Do you remember that laughable post of yours from years ago where you were claiming how Abdul Qadir was such a genius and that he was a better leggie than Warne? I'm pretty sure his herculian average of 48 odd away from home went out of the window in that case, right?
