Political victimization via NAB.
Under Imran Khan's tenure all major opposition leaders were arrested. The list includes: Asif Ali Zardari, Nawaz Sharif, Khawaja Saad Rafique, Khawaja Salman Rafique, Shehbaz Sharif, Hamza Shehbaz, Khursheed Shah, Faryal Talpur, Agha Siraj Durrani, Shahid Khaqan Abbasi, Ahsan Iqbal and Maryam Nawaz Sharif.
With the exception of Nawaz Sharif and Maryam (who was already sentenced before IK took charge) not a single one of these cases resulted in conviction in the PTI’s three years.
The judiciary also criticised NAB for failing to produce a convincing case against many opposition leaders which led to the courts giving them bail.
Looted Money never brought back
Even though PTI launched as massive anti-corruption drive against its oppositions, they never achieved anything. One of the promised made by Imran Khan during his election campaign was that he would bring back money looted by previous rulers and stashed abroad.
On January 24th 2022, Barrister Shahzad Akbar resigned from his post as as head of the Asset Recovery Unit. he PM as well as Mr Akbar had kept on claiming regularly that they had identified this looted money and the nation would soon hear the good news. However, more than three years later, the whereabouts of this money remain a mystery and the government has failed to explain why its claims are just that and nothing more.
In addition, Mr Akbar had also led the accountability drive against the PTI’s opponents — and specifically the Sharif family — but as yet no solid evidence has been brought to the courts to substantiate the allegations made by Mr Akbar and his various colleagues in numerous press conferences.
Looming IMF Crisis
Imran Khan appointed four finance ministers and about half a dozen finance secretaries since 2018. He also frequently changed his tax chief and the head of the Board of Investment. Obviously, the economy was massively mismanaged which I can discuss later. However, Khan leaves his position with a massive looming IFM crisis on Pakistan's head.
Initially, he was reluctant to seek a bailout from the International Monetary Fund. Then a year after he did so in 2019, the program -- Pakistan’s 13th such loan in 30 years -- was suspended because Pakistan failed to meet IMF conditions for it. The plan was revived last year after Khan’s administration agreed to tougher conditions, including raising oil prices and electricity tariffs. But a few months later, Khan cut domestic fuel costs and power rates to soothe public anger over rising living costs, measures seen as putting the IMF program in jeopardy.
Such measures have put a massive risk on getting further support from IMF and jeopardizes the economic stability of the country.
Ordinance Factory and mockery of the democratic process
Ignoring what Imran Khan and PTI did recently in the parliament which was not only unconstitutional but also undemocratic, Imran Khan and PTI have been, during their tenure, using undemocratic means to pass bills. Instead of debating and discussing bills in the parliament and voting on these as how it should be in a democracy, Imran Khan and PTI have been passing presidential ordinances to pass these controversial bills.
Two cases are worth mentioning. The federal government, through a notification dated March 26, 2021, announced the ‘removal’ of the chairperson of the Higher Education Commission Dr Tariq Banuri. This notification was challenged in the Sindh High Court, which stayed the appointment of a new chairperson. As Dr Banuri was removed pursuant to the Higher Education (Amendment) Ordinance, 2021, which reduced the tenure of the chairperson from four to two years, the government argued there were no ulterior motives behind his ‘removal’; rather, he ‘ceased to hold office’ by the operation of law. Similarly, MNA Mohsin Shahnawaz Ranjha challenged the legality of eight ordinances promulgated by the president in a single day (Oct 30, 2019) in the Islamabad High Court.
This government, in particular, has placed increased reliance on ordinances to resolve routine governance and policy challenges. It has tried to resolve matters related to the Pakistan Medical Commission, Elections Act, 2017, FATF and the provision of consular access to RAW spy Kulbhushan Jadhav through ordinances. However, upon close examination of the constitutional provisions which grant this power to the president, it is clear that the invocation of these powers should be the exception rather than the norm.
Article 89 of the Constitution allows the president to promulgate ordinances. However, the president has to satisfy a two-pronged test to enact ordinances. Firstly, the Senate or National Assembly must not be in session and, secondly, there must exist circumstances that render it necessary to take immediate action.
Buzdar's Appointment as CM Punjab
Buzdar a former PML-N and PML-Q party member joined PTI in the 2018 election season. Over the three years of his tenure not a single credible explanation would be advanced by the ruling party as to why this man was handed the fates of a hundred million people.
People based in Punjab know very well of the corruption stories doing the rounds with regards to Buzdar and transfers. Moreover, we are also very well aware of the negative impact his tenure has had on the entire province. However, personal anecdotes aside even the Supreme Court summoned him on allegations of transferring Pakpattan’s District Police Officer in the middle of the night, at the behest of a buddy called Ahsan Gujjar. The inquiry report, ordered by the Supreme Court, found that the DPO’s transfer orders flowed directly from the chief minister’s office. The case concluded only after the unconditional apologies of Mr Buzdar, Mr Gujjar, and the Inspector General of Police.
Even police chiefs were changed over three years, one of which prompted the resignation of Nasir Khan Durrani. Mr Durrani had shepherded the PTI’s celebrated police reforms in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and was brought to Lahore for the same purpose.
NAB opened up against the chief minister on a variety of allegations, from accepting graft over liquor licenses to illegal land allotments, while his principal secretary came under investigation for assets beyond means.
PTI's role in the Sugar Crisis
The sugar inquiry commission held Mr Buzdar responsible for authorising a whopping Rs2.9 billion subsidy. akistan exported more than four million tonnes of sugar over the past five years and more than Rs29 billion had been given to sugar mills in terms of export subsidy.
Exporting sugar with subsidy means that we are exporting on international rates which are lower than the cost of production claimed by sugar mills and the differential cost is being paid from the taxpayers’ hard-earned money
Asad Umar informed the commission that the country was in dire need of foreign exchange at that time and since there were sufficient stocks of sugar available in the country. However, there was no reliable stock count done to back up this claim made by Asad Umar. The inquiry stated “The response of Asad Umar regarding the change of the ECC decision about the freight support (subsidy) by placing it on the discretion of the provinces was found not convincing by the commission."
Basically, the government provided subsidy from the tax-payers money which sugar mill owners used to export the sugar at lower prices then at international level thereby profiting themselves while the PTI government supported this move by not accurately estimating the stock count which further resulted in profiteering by the mill owners who made profits in excess of Rs100bn by increasing prices.
The commission concluded that the subsidy granted was unjustified. “The CM Punjab pleaded his case that the subsidy was granted by the cabinet and it was a collective decision. However, keeping in view the minutes of the meeting dated 06-12-2018, which the CM Punjab claims to have forgotten, clearly indicates otherwise."
However, no charges were brought against Buzdar for providing this illegal subsidy and no charges against those responsible for ensuring and accurately estimating the stock count. In the end, Jehangir Tareen was made a scape goat and scarified.
Benefits that sunk the economy further
During their tenure the PTI government provided benefits to the people of Pakistan in the shape of lower fuel and electricity prices and subsidized loans and tax exemptions for selected sectors. Even though the public celebrated these benefits one needs to realize that these will further deteriorate Pakistan’s financial health, because they create a burden that its decrepit tax machinery cannot shoulder through prudent revenue collection elsewhere.
For an efficient economic system, it is essential that prices be linked directly to costs. When underlying costs rise, as they do when international commodity prices increase, the government cannot insulate the populace from higher domestic prices without creating a higher debt burden for future generations. Insufficient tax collection from broad swathes of the economy and a lack of productivity relative to other countries are at the core of our economy’s ailments. Either because of a lack of understanding amongst the top leadership or an unwillingness to start politically painful reforms.
Reducing petrol and electricity prices would trigger a deficit pile-up, which would be financed through more borrowing, which would further crowd-out private sector borrowing, and put upward pressure on interest rates. An already precarious fiscal balance would further deteriorate, while the ever-envied current account deficit would continue to widen.
Sehat Card
Despite the government’s tall claims, the Sehat Sahulat Programme (SSP) in Punjab has failed to achieve the desired targets. Under this health facility scheme, Insaf Sehat Cards had been issued to five million families in 36 districts of the province.
However, only 93,000 people could benefit from this facility within one year, making the success rate of the programme only two per cent.
Some top government officials as well as the provincial finance department have also expressed concerns regarding the success of the programme. According to sources, by the end of the financial year 2019, 11.03 billion had been spent on the scheme. In the current financial year, Rs12 billion has been allocated for this project.
What is more, the Punjab Health Insurance Initiative Management Company has demanded an additional Rs5 billion to sustain the Sehat Sahulat Programme.
Under the SSP, medical services can only be availed in case of hospitalisation, that too in a hospital included in the panel of the programme. At present, more than 200 hospitals across the province are on the panel, but only about 17 of them are government hospitals.
The programme does not include emergency and OPD facilities, which is why this facility has been largely useless for the masses. Government employees, journalists, and people belonging to some other professions were also suggested to be included in the programme, but the federal government did not agree.
The incompatibility of official rates and the market price of treatment, especially involving surgeries, points to the haste in rolling out Sehat Cards. It shows us that this was done prematurely and the required consensus among stakeholders was lacking. This has also exposed their inability to plug the loopholes in the system surfacing every now and then.
It is frequently stated that a Sehat Card offers coverage of up to Rs 1 million a year, yet it actually provides Rs 460,000 per family per year. The coverage is extendable to up to Rs1 million under special circumstances.
Under Package-I, priority disease treatment, all cardholders are allotted Rs 400,000 per family per year. This package covers treatment for certain specific types of diseases including heart disease, chronic diseases like tuberculosis, hepatitis-B and C, HIV, chronic liver disease, dialysis, burns and accidents, chemotherapy, surgery, radiotherapy for cancer, neurosurgical procedures and treatment for organ failure.
Under Package-II, secondary care treatment, the cardholders are eligible to receive up to Rs60,000 coverage per family per year. The package covers all types of medical and surgical illnesses and maternity services including C-section.
Ehsaas Card Program
The Ehsaas card program was just a rebranding of BISP. It is laden with the same problems that its predecessor. The Ehsaas card program expanded on the BISP and added seven million more families vs what was included in BISP. However, lack of proper management has resulted in issues for those trying to collect the funds.
News reports from various outlets cover the troubles faced by those trying to collect money from the Ehsaas program. There are reports about people not receiving their funds, about biometric issues at cash points and all in all mismanagement of the program resulting in the people not receiving the aid they were promised.
Imports vs Exports
I don't need a write-up here. I think the below graph clearly illustrates the problem faced by Pakistan
View attachment 115624
Debt
I will copy/paste what I have posted a few times already on this forum with regards to the debt accumulated by PTI during its 3 year tenure
According to State Bank of Pakistan, Pakistan's total external debt and liabilities in 2018 were 29,861.2 Billion Rs. (
https://www.sbp.org.pk/reports/stat_...ternalDebt.pdf). This has increased to 51,724.2 Billion Rs in December 2021 (
https://www.sbp.org.pk/ecodata/Summary.pdf).
The average USD rate in 2018 was 121.57. Using this rate, to make the aforementioned amounts currency neutral, we had a debt of $245B when Imran Khan took over and this amount (using the same conversation rate) stands at $425B.
So in the three years PTI's government ruled the country out total debt and liabilities according to State Bank of Pakistan almost doubled.
Out of this, the external debt stood at $99.238B and currently stands at $130B (as of last quarter of 2021) (
https://tradingeconomics.com/pakistan/external-debt). That's a 31% increase in 3 years. If you have an issue with the quoted source, you can use the SBP summaries I referenced above to cross-check these amounts.
