On these wickets, 160-170 is a great score for batting, because even the worst spinners have some purchase from the wickets.
True and also these wickets do not quite lend themselves to consistent hitting unlike some of those in ENG etc.
If we just look at the teams that are doing well, we'll find that their pacers have good variations such as the slower-ball, and they have a variety of spinners for different occasions.
If we start analyzing the spinners:
Ashwin, Axar Patel, Lalit Yadav from DC all tend to bowl at the stumps with correct field placements. They don't rip the ball, but the spongey nature of the wickets means that the ball can get stuck and doesn't come onto the bat easily. On these wickets, I have seen guys like Mohammad Rizwan, Sarfaraz Ahmed, and Shoaib Malik consistently keep the scoreboard ticking, which is what is needed.
Wrist-spinners have struggled a bit more, though their performances have shown that the googly is a very important weapon on these surfaces, as the ball can tend to grip once in a while. Spinners who bowl straight at the stumps have been largely successful, looking at examples like Varun Chakravarthy, Sunil Narine, and more.
The pacers succeeding right now are those that possess good variations both off the pitch and in the air. Harshal Patel has been incredible to watch, his slower-balls and his cutters are both wonderfully executed and show that even if batsmen can pick the slower ball, dispatching it is a different issue on its own.
I'll point to a much better example being Mumbai Indians. Touted for their middle order that possesses so much hitting power, they have failed miserably. The key on these wickets is having batsmen who can find singles and doubles, and score the odd boundary. This is why players like Ruturaj Gaikwad, Ventakesh Iyer, and others are doing so well, and are so consistent. They exploit the powerplay but understand that saving wickets for the death allows them to explode.
Might I remind people here that Pakistan became the #1 T20 team in the UAE thanks to this model: accumulate runs in the powerplay, continue to keep the scoreboard ticking, and explode towards the end. This model is very successful, and a number of IPL teams are demonstrating it now. IPL teams that tried exploding before the 15th over have succumbed to major collapses and this is a sign that we need players capable of understanding game situations, and the situation on these UAE wickets.
Moving on, swing bowlers haven't had much of a say in this IPL. Even in the PSL, swing bowlers weren't the ones making much of a difference: bowlers who steamed in and bowled short of a length were successful. Additionally, bowlers who had decent change-ups also saw a lot of success (Faulkner in PSL, Harshal in IPL).
This is why I think it is unwise to carry these fake X-factor players, they will ruin our methodology that brought a lot of success in the UAE.
This is a good piece. I have not followed the IPL at all but the rationale sounds sensible and what one would normally expect in UAE. Especially given the par / typical scores on these grounds. The only other thing that I heard about which deviates slightly from the above is that the IND leg spinner, Chahal, has bowled well and may have an outside chance of getting selected. But having not seen it, this could equally fall in the 'googly' camp instead of the 'wrist spinner' one.
The notion of playing out-and-out sloggers / hitters / game changers is that they should have still have a probabilistic base for success. PAK's sloggers Asif, Khushdil, Azam and Sohaib (to an extent) do not quite have numbers behind them. All of these have a common denominator in terms of trying to hit their way out of trouble (two to three dots is all it takes for them to go berserk). As earlier, agree about maximising the delta between the runs scored and those conceded / saved while bowling / fielding.
The saddest thing about this is that T20 is arguably the easiest format to take singles and not let any pressure build up – the default is to have fielders out almost immediately after the culmination of the power play with the expectation of players expecting to go big throughout. This means that there are far more gaps in the inner ring than there would be in Tests or ODIs, all else being equal.
I posted a squad which I would take to the WC in the thread, but I'll put it below:
Openers:
Babar Azam (c)
Mohammad Rizwan (vc)(wk)
Haider Ali/Sharjeel Khan
Middle-Order:
Sohaib Maqsood
Shoaib Malik/Mohammad Hafeez (subject to fitness)
Iftikhar Ahmed
Sarfaraz Ahmed (wk)
All-Rounders:
Imad Wasim
Mohammad Nawaz
Aamir Yamin
Pacers:
Shaheen Shah Afridi
Hasan Ali
Wahab Riaz/Imran Khan Sr.
Shahnawaz Dahani
Spinner:
Usman Qadir/Zahid Mahmood
I think now is a good time to revisit this considering the changes to the squad. The good thing is that the changes have mostly neutralised the 'power hitters' and 'X factors' in favour of people who are probabilistically more likely to succeed in reaching the 160 - 165 territory.
If I were PAK mgmt. I would design PAK’s strategy around trying to get to 160 in most games and keeping ~7-8 bowling options (part-timers included) and good fielders.
As earlier, I would say PAK need to try and get Babar, Rizwan, Hafeez and Malik (now included) to play 13-15 overs at an average SR of 135 with a low dot ball percentage. This get PAK to ~122 off 15 overs (base case: excluding collapses or any of the batsmen going full throttle).
The last 5 overs can be a feast for whoever is left: Haider / Fakhar, Nawaz, Imad, Shadab, Hassan, Wasim Jr. If these guys can, on average, play 8 off 5 ball innings then PAK can even get to 170. It doesn’t matter where these runs come from on the wagon wheel.
With a bowling line-up comprising of Shaheen (2-4 overs), Hassan (2-4 overs), Imad (1-3 overs), Shadab (1-3 overs), Nawaz (1-3 overs), Wasim Jr (1-3 overs), Hafeez (1-2 overs), Malik (1-2 overs) PAK should always be in the game with enough choices to throw most teams off their momentum.
Personally, I would have the below XI as my first choice. I am not inclined to think about the team combination in terms of prevalent orthodoxies (hitter, finisher etc.) and prefer to think about it in terms of optimising deltas between batting, bowling and fielding. I would prefer to go in with a cohesive strategy of laying the right foundation, having little to no faith in Asif, Haider & co.. In a way, not having a headstrong / stable figure (Saqlain) at the helm as a coach may just help Babar. I am not sure to what extent Hayden will look to override Babar to play Asif Ali & co.
Babar (aim to play 30 balls at ~130)
Rizwan (aim to play 30 balls at ~130)
Hafeez
Malik
Haider / Fakhar (could move one of these to No.3 with MH and SM moving a slot lower; could play Fakhar if we see SLAO or leg-spinner potentially doing damage to RHB up the order)
Nawaz
Imad
Shadab
Hassan
Wasim Jr / Rauf / Qadir / Dahani
Shaheen (hopefully does not have to bat)
Risks:
Collapses are inevitable but if the Top 5 includes BA, MR, MH, SM and one of FZ or HA then PAK should hopefully not collapse so miserably to need Nawaz or below to enter the fray inside 12 overs – especially given this tournament is going to be UAE based.
For teams that have LHB, PAK may not have many spinners taking the ball away from them and have to rely on Hafeez and / or Malik. Still, this should not amount to an unsurmountable snag and both have enough experience and wiles to get PAK into a good position.
Squad:
I would personally have kept out Asif and Khushdil both. Iftikhar could have made his way for Asif. Asif’s an unreliable fielder and if his swipe across the line to the length ball does not work, he often does not have much else to show (despite the odd innings from him in NT20, I feel he is replaceable by one of our all-rounder / part-time bowling options).
Query for you (and other regular followers of the domestics):
Haris Rauf struck some lusty blows in one of the NT20 games (trying to remember which one) – was that a one-off or has his batting improved reasonably for him to be in with a shout? He bowled reasonably well in the NT20 but still left a bit to be desired. I still think PAK should go for only one person in the XI who cannot hold a bat instead of going Rauf (unless it is not a one-off) or Dahani – picking another out-and-out bowler would only make sense if their wicket taking ability’s much superior with a high probability of success.
To conclude, I think the way to go is more ‘Moneyball’ and less the trite found on Shoaib Akhtar’s YT channel
Knowing PAK team though, we will likely not figure out our optimal combination until we are already risking elimination (à la CWC 15, CWC 19) etc.
