If you want to see the ground realities of peoples' lives, look at the crisis in food and medicine. According to a study by Moscow's Higher School of Economics, the price of Russian-made essential medicines rose by
29% in 2015. In that same year, prices for life-saving medicine, whose prices are regulated by the government, rose by
32%.
I really doubt there is any crisis in medicines. Let me explain. There are these Indian generic firms. The make medicines incredibly affordable. Recently in the US there was a hue and cry about the drug Epipen selling for $600. Guess how much it was selling for in India? $0.20
That is right, the price in US was 300,000% of the Indian price.
I have personally seen the diabetes drug Metmorfin sell for $15 in the US and $0.08 in India.
So if there really was a crisis in Russia all they would have to do is to give their old friend India a call. And the only drugs the Indians don't make are the very latest drugs (usually less than a couple of years old) approved by the FDA.
Russian bank VTB Capital reported in 2015 that 46% of household budgets was spent on food ! Thus, both consumption of food and medicine has fallen. So if you're in a Russian household where members can't afford basic essentials I don't think regaling tales from Stalingrad will provide much comfort. EVEN Russian cabinet members and Putin himself acknowledges living standards have been hit.
I never argued that living standards haven't fallen. My point consistently has been that they haven't fallen enough to 1) have any effect on the Russian psyche 2) make Putin unpopular 3) to reverse the gains made in the time under Putin.
2) You haven't mentioned how unevenly that income growth is distributed. Income gains in recent years have primarily benefited Russia's wealthy energy hubs, while bypassing the poorest areas of the country. If you look at the research from the International Centre for Inclusive Growth, in regions where around half of economic output comes from the oil, gas and minerals industries, incomes are one-third higher on average than in the rest of Russia. The growth in average wages is also highly skewed by huge income gains at the top.
No argument.
Now let's look at real wage growth:
Real wages (so adjusting for inflation) between May 2014 and May 2015 fell by 14%, a level not seen since the crisis of 1998-99. If Russia's economy was as
diversified as you claim - these economic shocks from the oil price fall would not have occurred
to this extent.
Nice chart. Nice recovery 2016 onwards, with positive growth resuming. Obviously 15% to 20% growth rates seen in the 2006 to 2008 era can't come back, but 4% for a country with $25K per cap PPP GDP is hugely impressive.
4) By the Russian government's OWN measure of poverty, it has increased to 13.4% of the population which is the highest since 2006.
Increased to 13.4% from what level? 6% to 13.4% is entirely different from 13.2% to 13.4%
5) It is perfectly reasonable to credit Putin for the economic recovery after the 90s and criticise him for failing to diversify the economy sufficiently leaving it prone to oil price shocks, overseeing increases in poverty and inequality, and overseeing corruption that is ranked WORSE by Transparency International than China, India and Pakistan. That's my preference than to unquestioningly drink the Kremlin Kool Aid.
Especially when it comes to Russia, I take Western sources like Transparency International with a pinch of salt.
Of course Putin isn't perfect and Russia isn't perfect either. To get an idea what may have happened if Putin hadn't restored law and order and crushed the oligarchs, look no further than mini-Russia, that is Ukraine. It's current per cap GDP is all of $8,200 compared to Russia's $26,000.
Don't say that Russia's higher GDP is due to oil resources. The per cap GDP has at most fallen by 10% with the crash in oil prices.
When Putin took over in 2000, Russia's per cap GDP was $11,170 and Ukraine's was $3,976 and today $27,466 and $8,678.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_past_and_projected_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita
So, under Putin Russia's GDP has grown 146% whereas Ukriane's has grown 118%. Remember that it is much harder to grow per cap GDP if you start from a higher level.
While Ukraine wallows in Yeltsin era politics with rampant oligarchs, Putin has improved Russia's performance (though it remains far from perfect).
I'm not a Russophobe, the Western media have gone overboard in its Putin bashing in recent times. But you're arguing as if there's a binary choice between stability under Putin and a return to Yeltsin-era chaos (where oil prices were a fraction of what it was under Putin) with no other way.
I don't think you are a Russophobe, you argue your points well supported by data.
Unfortunately the world we live in is the world we live in. Can there be someone better than Putin for Russia? Maybe. Can there be someone worse? Certainly! We already have had one with the name Yeltsin. Also remember that the Western nations tried their level best to return Russia's politics to the Yeltsin era with their actions against Putin. Putin had to fight on many different fronts to take his country forward.
