Will Scotland hold another referendum?

[Abdullah476]

The Scottish National Party (SNP) have gained 14 more seats more than they had after the 2017 General Election. The call for independence is growing.

In 2014, most voted for no (55%) in the Scotland Referendum compared to 45% who voted for yes.

But now the calls for a second referendum are growing.

So will they be able to get the referendum which they want?

In my opinion, they probably will but not anytime soon. I think perhaps in 2022/23 we may see a referendum and it'll be 50/50 whether they stay or the gain independence.

 

[Technics 1210]

If Scotland want to leave, then leave. Providing they agree England will not fund a single penny to Scotland. Not. A. Single. Penny.

 

[Robert]

The argument between Scottish First Minister and British PM will run on through 2020.

They'll do rather well out of what's left of North Sea oil & gas.

Plus our Trident subs will have to berth somewhere else.

I don't want them to go. But why would they stay? Nobody votes Tory in Scotland and they want to be full EU members.

I can see them thriving with a Scandi-style economy and society while we go into long-term decline.

 

[irfan]

they had 14 Tory Mps which actually enabled May to form a govt ironic considering Eng used to foist a Tory govt on them previously. This time I think there are 3 or 4 and create a blue wall on the border. Can see these places asking for Ulster style partition to remain part of UK. Personally I believe they should be independent but real independence from both UK and EU.

 

[ElRaja]

they will pbly hold another referendum, altho the margin for stayin surprised me last time. would take a fairly chunky move to get a yes vote.

also oil was priced at abt $100 a barrel, its around half that now, and long term demand don't look great. so financially scotland would find it a bit tougher than it may have been when oil prices were higher.

norway, which is pbly what they wanted to model themselves on invested their oil money very wisely, their sovereign wealth fund is a juggernaut.

the major driver for independence would be anti tory sentiment imo, but they can deal by asking for even more autonomy within the kingdom, that way they get the best of both worlds.

so i think they'll be another referendum, but the scots will choose to stay again.

 

[James]

Given the regular runaway successes of the SNP - and Tory losses in Scotland this time, despite the landslide result in England - another Scottish independence referendum is inevitable.

Johnson and Cummings I think will know this already. It may not happen before 2024, but it possibly could a couple of years after that.

Obviously independence is the SNP’s raison d’etre - and Scottish Labour meanwhile are reportedly looking for a radical strategy to recover their vote, so may consider backing a referendum but with a Stay position.

Therefore if the Tories say ahead of the 2024 General Election that they will allow the referendum, the Tories retain power, and Scotland then votes to stay - which it may well do - then it would be absolutely devastating for the SNP, and the Tories at this point will have already sidelined Scottish Labour’s potential new strategy.

 

[Bosanquet]

I have been in Edinburgh rather a lot during the past 18 months, what with our son starting a professional course at Edinburgh uni and us buying a house there. We will move there from London in 2020.
The mood for independence is VERY strong. The tories have lost their extremely popular leader and Johnson is absolutely loathed north of the border.
SNP will go all-out for another referendum and this time I hope that they win. Certainly the 3 of us will vote 'Yes' to leaving the union. Then as soon as poss Scotland will re-apply for EU membership.

I do not know enough about the economy to comment but what I will say is that scottish power is the only major electricity company in UK which is 100% renewable. Windfarms, both on land and offshore are everywhere, the food is wonderful and cheap (especially after a lifetime in london), the air is clean the scenery breathtaking , the people extra-ordinarily friendly, the neighbours stop and chat with you, the Edinburgh festival is magic and we are both developing a taste for single malt whiskies after 35 years spent drinking wine or beer. In short we are in love with the country. However the weather is absolutely miserable after september till (probably) May.

 

[PetroDollars]

you shouldnt be able to hold referendums so soon after each one, looks like a game.

Boris wouldnt allow it anyway. there should be a gap of atleast 20 years before any referendum.

 

[Bosanquet]

Given the regular runaway successes of the SNP - and Tory losses in Scotland this time, despite the landslide result in England - another Scottish independence referendum is inevitable.

Johnson and Cummings I think will know this already. It may not happen before 2024, but it possibly could a couple of years after that.

Obviously independence is the SNP’s raison d’etre - and Scottish Labour meanwhile are reportedly looking for a radical strategy to recover their vote, so may consider backing a referendum but with a Stay position.

Therefore if the Tories say ahead of the 2024 General Election that they will allow the referendum, the Tories retain power, and Scotland then votes to stay - which it may well do - then it would be absolutely devastating for the SNP, and the Tories at this point will have already sidelined Scottish Labour’s potential new strategy.

I don't think Ms Sturgeon and the SNP are prepared to wait till 2025.

 

[Abdullah476]

I don't think Ms Sturgeon and the SNP are prepared to wait till 2025.

If they don't wait till 2023 at least then they may well lose and they won't be getting another opportunity after that anytime soon

 

[James]

I don't think Ms Sturgeon and the SNP are prepared to wait till 2025.

What will they do though? It’s not up to them.

 

[Bosanquet]

What will they do though? It’s not up to them.

With Scotland out of the equation the Tories will enjoy perpetual majorities at westminister. The beguiling scent of power forever may prove too intoxicating to resist for Johnson et al. I can only hope.

 

[Kroll]

you shouldnt be able to hold referendums so soon after each one, looks like a game.

Boris wouldnt allow it anyway. there should be a gap of atleast 20 years before any referendum.

Fully agree with this point, this should be like a once in a generation or even once in a lifetime. The last referendum doesn't feel that long ago. You just can't go around having referendum after referendum on the same issue although it seems to be the new "cool" in modern politics.

The result might be a bit closer this time but I reckon it would still be the same end result. A big resounding NO. The older generation aren't going to vote for independence as they will be worried about their pensions etc.

There is also a very significant and strong unionist demographic present especially in the the west of Scotland which has the largest population base.

 

[Firebat]

UK's Johnson says devolving powers to Scotland was 'a disaster'

LONDON (Reuters) - British Prime Minister Boris Johnson called the devolution of powers to Scotland “a disaster”, a comment that played into the hands of Scottish nationalists pushing for an independence referendum that opinion polls suggest they could win.

The bonds holding the United Kingdom together have been severely strained over the last five years by Brexit and the government’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, and 14 recent polls have shown a majority of Scots now support independence.

In a video call on Friday with northern English lawmakers from his Conservative Party, Johnson said that devolution, introduced by Tony Blair had been the former prime minister’s “biggest mistake” and “a disaster”, media reported.

He also said he saw no case for giving Scotland’s semi-autonomous government and parliament, which are dominated by the pro-independence Scottish National Party (SNP), any further powers in addition to the ones they hold now.

Johnson’s office did not deny the comments.

Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP leader, jumped on them, arguing that the Conservatives’ public statements of support for devolution were duplicitous.

“Worth bookmarking these PM comments for the next time Tories (Conservatives) say they’re not a threat to the powers of the Scottish Parliament - or, even more incredibly, that they support devolving more powers,” she said on Twitter.

Independence is the only way to protect and strengthen the Scottish parliament, she added.

In a sign of the nervousness that Johnson’s comments caused among Scots who support staying part of the United Kingdom, the Conservative leader in Scotland, Douglas Ross, immediately contradicted the prime minister.

“Devolution has not been a disaster,” he said on Twitter. “The SNP’s non-stop obsession with another referendum - above jobs, schools and everything else - has been a disaster.”

SECOND REFERENDUM?

Scottish voters rejected independence by 55 to 45 percent in a 2014 referendum, but since then the SNP have become stronger, winning all elections in Scotland by huge margins. They are expected to perform strongly in elections to Scottish parliament in Holyrood in May. Sturgeon is pushing for a second referendum.

In the 2016 Brexit referendum, England and Wales voted to leave the European Union but Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to remain. Due to the much greater size of England’s population, the overall result was a win for Brexit.

This was galling for many Scots, because one of the central arguments put forward in favour of remaining in the United Kingdom in their own 2014 referendum was that it was the only way for Scotland to remain part of the European bloc.

In an attempt to defuse the row caused by Johnson’s comments, the housing minister Robert Jenrick said it was not realistic to demand a second referendum.

“Any politician who wanted to hold a referendum on a topic like this, at this moment in time, is frankly mad,” he said, accusing the SNP of prioritising their cause above the fight against COVID-19 and the economic damage it has caused.

However, polls suggest that Scots have a more favourable view of how Sturgeon and her administration have handled the pandemic than the rest of the country has of how Johnson’s government has performed.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...wers-to-scotland-was-a-disaster-idUSKBN27X03F

 

[Firebat]

PM Johnson accuses SNP of using devolution to break up UK

LONDON (Reuters) - British Prime Minister Boris Johnson accused the Scottish National Party on Wednesday of using devolution to campaign for the break up of the United Kingdom.

After being criticised for saying devolution was a disaster at a meeting with lawmakers from his Conservative Party, Johnson, who did not directly comment on whether he thought devolution was a disaster, told parliament:

“I think what has unquestionably been a disaster is the way in which the Scottish nationalist (National) party have taken and used devolution as a means ... to constantly to campaign for the break up of our country and to turn devolution ... into a mission to break up the UK.”

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...using-devolution-to-break-up-uk-idUSKBN27Y1KI

 

[Gabbar Singh]

The current SNP civil war is surely going to delay any prospective referendum.

The Salmond/Sturgeon/Sturgeon’s husband fiasco is going to cost the Scottish independence movement a lot of momentum.

 

[PakLFC]

Yes there will be another referendum sooner or later.

 

[Last Monetarist]

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/scottish-nationalists-unlikely-win-majority-poll-indicates-2021-05-05/

The Scottish National Party's bid to win a clear mandate for having another independence referendum was balanced on a knife edge on the eve of Thursday's parliamentary election, with polls showing the expected result was too close to call.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has repeatedly said he will not grant a second referendum on Scotland breaking from the United Kingdom.

But the SNP, the main pro-independence party and the dominant force in Scottish politics, says that if it secures a majority of seats in the devolved parliament in Edinburgh, its demand for one cannot be ignored.

A Savanta ComRes poll indicated the SNP would fall six seats short of winning an outright majority in the 129-seat parliament, though it showed the Greens, which are pro-independence, were set for gains.

An Ipsos MORI poll found that while the SNP was far ahead of other parties it was not clear if it would win an outright majority.

"The SNP is going into Thursday's election in a very strong position," Ipsos MORI said. "However, it is not possible to predict with confidence on the basis of these results whether the SNP will definitely win an outright majority of seats."

If the SNP wins Thursday's election, Johnson will have a difficult choice: refuse a referendum and thus allow Scottish discontent to simmer, or allow a referendum which could break apart the union he says is so dear to him and his party.

The only time the SNP have won a majority before was in 2011. Britain's then Prime Minister David Cameron bowed to pressure and agreed to a referendum in 2014.

Scots voted 55-45 percent against independence in that referendum. But Britain's departure from the European Union with Brexit, approval for First Minister Nicola Sturgeon's handling of the COVID-19 crisis, and antipathy in Scotland to Johnson's Conservative government in Westminster have bolstered support for independence.

The Greens in Scotland could be an important factor.

They have cooperated with the SNP to pass legislation, are pro-independence, and have not ruled out a coalition with the SNP.

If there was a pro-independence majority returned to parliament, the SNP would most likely say it had a mandate for another referendum, though London would likely dispute that.

At a debate ahead of the election, SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon said she would not call an illegal, so-called "wildcat" referendum if PM Johnson refused to allow one.

But she and her party have repeatedly raised the threat of legal action if Johnson does deny that.

Johnson told reporters on Wednesday he did not believe most people in Scotland, nor throughout the United Kingdom, believed it was a good time to have another referendum as the country came out of the pandemic.

The nations of Britain have shared the same monarch since James VI of Scotland became James I of England in 1603 and a formal union created the Kingdom of Great Britain in 1707.

Today, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland includes England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales.

The United Kingdom as whole voted 52-48 to leave the EU in a 2016 referendum: England and Wales voted to leave but Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to stay.

 

[Last Monetarist]

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/first-results-through-crucial-scottish-elections-2021-05-07/

Scotland’s main pro-independence party captured a swathe of seats on Friday in a crucial Scottish parliament election which could determine the future of the United Kingdom, although its leader cautioned the result remained “on a knife edge”.

The ruling Scottish National Party (SNP) will seek to hold another referendum on independence by the end of 2023 if there is a pro-independence majority returned to the devolved 129-seat parliament - setting up a potential legal showdown with Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who says he will refuse any such vote.

The SNP won 14 of the first 16 seats to be declared, including East Lothian from Labour, one of the election's key battlegrounds. However, in some areas there was an increase in support for opposition pro-union parties, indicating the final outcome could be very close.

"A majority has always been a very, very long shot," said Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland's First Minister and SNP leader, adding that the electoral system for the devolved parliament, which was created in 1999, favoured smaller parties.

"It would be good to do. But I have never taken that for granted and it has always been on a knife edge. I am extremely happy and extremely confident that we are on track in the SNP for a fourth consecutive election victory," said Sturgeon, who regained her own seat with a comfortable majority.

When asked what it would mean if the SNP did win a majority, Johnson said he would wait and see what happens in the next few hours. "I don't think people want much more constitutional wrangling right now," he told reporters.

Britain's departure from the European Union, a move opposed by an overwhelming majority in Scotland, a perception that the Scottish government has handled the COVID-19 crisis well, and antipathy to Johnson's Conservative government in Westminster have all bolstered support for the independence movement.

If there was another referendum and the Scots voted to leave, it would mark the biggest shock to the United Kingdom since Irish independence a century ago.

The SNP need to gain at least four more seats to win an overall majority of 65, but could rely on the backing of the pro-independence Green Party, which took five seats in 2016, to pursue a second referendum.

Turnout across Scotland was higher than five years ago. Commentators said the SNP needed to get its supporters out to gain a majority, while it could also mean tactical voting by those opposed to breaking up the 314-year union with England.

Results from about two-thirds of the 73 constituency seats are due on Friday. The remainder and regional seats – allocated on a complicated proportional representation system based on a second vote – will be announced on Saturday.

All the parties say how those regional seats fall could be crucial in whether there is a pro-independence majority.

Scots voted by 55%-45% in 2014 to remain part of the United Kingdom, in what pro-unionist parties say should be a once in a generation vote. Polls suggest the outcome of a second referendum would be too tight to call.

 

[Last Monetarist]

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/scotlands-crucial-election-knife-edge-pro-independence-party-heads-win-2021-05-08/

The Scottish National Party (SNP), which has vowed to hold an independence referendum that could tear the United Kingdom apart if it returns to power, headed for victory on Saturday in Scotland's parliament election but without an outright majority.

The SNP says it will seek to hold a new vote on secession if a pro-independence majority is returned to the devolved 129-seat parliament, setting the stage for a showdown with British Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

Johnson has said he would refuse any such vote because Scots backed staying in the United Kingdom in 2014.

Results on Saturday showed the SNP well on course for a fourth consecutive term in office having triumphed in 57 of the 68 seats declared so far.

It failed, however, to win the key battleground seat of Aberdeenshire West - a result commentators said meant it was highly unlikely to obtain an overall majority, falling one or two seats short.

The electoral system - which allocates 56 seats on a proportional representation basis that helps smaller parties - means the SNP is unlikely to gain enough additional seats amid signs of some tactical voting by pro-union supporters.

Final results are due later on Saturday.

There is still likely to be a pro-independence majority even if the SNP falls short because the Green Party also backs secession. But supporters of the union argue that without an SNP majority, there is no mandate for a referendum.

Scottish politics has been diverging from other parts of the United Kingdom for some time, but Scots remain split over holding another vote on whether to end their country's 314-year union with England and Wales. Britain's exit from the EU - opposed by a majority of Scots - as well as a perception that Sturgeon's government has handled the COVID-19 crisis well, and antipathy to Johnson's Conservative government in London, have bolstered support for Scotland's independence movement.

Scots voted to remain part of the United Kingdom by 55% to 45% in 2014, and Johnson has called that a "once in a generation" vote. Polls suggest the outcome of a second referendum would be too tight to call.

The British government says Johnson must approve any vote for it to be legal and he has made clear he would not do so.

"I think a referendum in the current context is irresponsible and reckless," he told the Daily Telegraph newspaper.

Sturgeon has ruled out holding any vote until after the pandemic, with the SNP indicating it would be held by the end of 2023.

She argues there would be no moral or democratic justification for Johnson to refuse a referendum if the Scottish parliament passed a bill to hold one.

"The results are looking like what we expected, that with the Scottish Greens there will be a pro-independence majority in the Scottish parliament and we take that as a clear mandate from the Scottish people to hold another referendum," Lorna Slater, co-leader of the Scottish Greens, told the BBC.

"I think Boris Johnson doesn't want a referendum because he knows he's going to lose."

With Sturgeon ruling out holding an illegal or wildcat plebiscite, it is likely that the issue will ultimately be decided by Britain's top court.

Responding to a suggestion the matter would end up before judges, Sturgeon wrote on Twitter: "Only if the Tories (Conservatives) refuse to accept Scottish democracy and go to court in an attempt to overturn it - which seems rather an important point of context."

 

[Last Monetarist]

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-57046408

Scotland's first minister has told Prime Minister Boris Johnson that a second independence referendum is "a matter of when - not if".

Nicola Sturgeon spoke directly with Mr Johnson for the first time since the SNP won an emphatic victory in Thursday's Holyrood election.

Earlier, Ms Sturgeon said she did not expect the debate to end up in court.

A senior UK government minister appeared to suggest it would not mount a legal challenge to her plans.

During a phone call with Mr Johnson on Sunday afternoon, the first minister pledged to work with the UK government on steering the country through the Covid pandemic towards recovery. The SNP said the leaders also agreed the importance of both governments working together "closely and constructively" to make the forthcoming UN climate conference in Glasgow a success.

But a party spokeswoman added: "The FM also re-iterated her intention to ensure that the people of Scotland can choose our own future when the crisis is over, and made clear that the question of a referendum is now a matter of when - not if."

Meanwhile, appearing on the BBC's Andrew Marr programme, the first minister was questioned whether she would introduce a referendum bill as early as next spring based on predictions that the UK will have recovered in terms of coronavirus circulation and GDP.

She said: "That would certainly work for that timescale of within the first half of the parliamentary term.

"I desperately hope those predictions are correct but we have to judge that as we go through this year. We've still got significant challenges ahead. I wouldn't rule that out but I'm not sitting here saying that is the timescale."

Prime Minister Boris Johnson has invited Ms Sturgeon and her Welsh counterpart Mark Drakeford to a summit to discuss a UK-wide approach to recovery from the pandemic.

He has said it would be "reckless and irresponsible" to have a referendum right now, and the UK government is not currently expected to grant formal consent for a vote to be held - as it did ahead of the 2014 referendum. There has been speculation that the row could end up with the courts being asked to rule on whether the Scottish government has the power to hold a referendum without the UK government's agreement.

But Ms Sturgeon said she did not believe either side wanted a legal battle over the issue.

She said: "The UK government knows that if we ever get into a situation where this is being determined in the courts then actually what the UK government is arguing is that there is no democratic route for Scotland to have independence.

"The implications of that would be very grave indeed. If the argument of the unionist side is that Scotland is trapped it strikes me that that is one of the strongest arguments for independence." Ms Sturgeon also said it would be "absurd and completely outrageous" if the UK government went to court over the issue and that it was "up to the Scottish people" to decide the country's future.

Her party stood on a manifesto to steer the country out of the pandemic, and to then hold a referendum, which she said people had "voted overwhelmingly for".

She added: "The fact that we are sitting here having a debate about whether or not that outcome is going to be respected says a lot about the lack of respect for Scottish democracy that this UK government has demonstrated for quite some time now."

Also appearing on the programme, Cabinet Office Minister Michael Gove said he would "not go near" the issue of the UK government potentially challenging a referendum bill in court.

He said: "Whatever parties we come from, the priority at the moment is not court cases, it's not independence legislation - it is recovery from the pandemic."

When asked if Scotland was allowed to leave the UK, he said: "Of course it is, through a legal referendum which would allow people to make that choice."

But he also insisted that the SNP's failure to win an overall majority showed that the people of Scotland were not "agitating" for a referendum.

The SNP finished on 64 seats in Thursday's Scottish election - one short of a majority but one more than it won in 2016 - while the Conservatives won 31, Labour 22, the pro-independence Scottish Greens eight and Liberal Democrats four.

But Mr Gove said a majority of voters - 51% - had backed parties that were opposed to independence in the constituency ballot - although the same percentage voted for pro-independence parties in the regional list ballot. BBC Scotland's Sunday Show later asked Mr Gove to clarify the indication he gave to Marr that the UK government would not mount a legal challenge to a Scottish independence referendum bill.

Mr Gove said: "We are not going to go down the route of talking about independence or legal challenges or anything like that now when our principle focus and exclusive attention is going on pandemic recovery.

"At the moment all we want to do is work with the first minister to concentrate on dealing with the consequences of the pandemic and the need to recover and build back better."

Mr Gove denied he was giving the Scottish government a green light to pass a referendum bill, saying "we are concentrating on is recovery at the moment". In her victory speech, Ms Sturgeon said her priority was leading the country through the pandemic - but said she still intended to hold an independence referendum once the crisis has passed.

In a letter to Ms Sturgeon published on Saturday night, the prime minister invited Ms Sturgeon to "discuss our shared challenges", adding "we will not always agree - but I am confident... we will be able to build back better, in the interests of the people we serve."

Mr Johnson said the country needed to "show the same spirit of unity and co-operation that marked our fight against the pandemic" in engineering a Covid-19 recovery.

But he warned it would be a "difficult journey", adding: "The broad shoulders of the UK have supported jobs and businesses the length and breadth of the country, but we know that economic recovery will be a serious shared responsibility."

 

[Robert]

Scot Nats fail to win a majority by one seat, so IndyRef2 is not immediate. It’s coming, though.

 

[Markhor]

Scot Nats fail to win a majority by one seat, so IndyRef2 is not immediate. It’s coming, though.

Aren't the Scottish Greens pro-independence ? In that case with a pro-independence Holyrood majority they could still call another referendum right ?

 

[James]

Boris is not actually a fool, IMO he knows that a second referendum on Scotland will in the end become politically impossible to avoid, but he doesn’t want it to feature within his legacy as a Conservative & Unionist PM, so he is simply trying to delay it until he has left office. Hence him sticking his heels in over it at the moment.

 

[Robert]

Aren't the Scottish Greens pro-independence ? In that case with a pro-independence Holyrood majority they could still call another referendum right ?

Aye, clocked that last night. It’s happening as soon as the Nats think they can win.

 

[PakLFC]

It is inevitable that Scotland will eventually become independent. This will give Anas Sarwar the hump!))

 

[Robert]

The three nations of GB have radically different politics - Tories in England, Labour in Wales and SNP in Scotland.

Doesn’t bode well for unity.

Then there’s the talk of Irish reunification.....

 

[PetroDollars]

how long before people start asking for another EU referendum?

 

[Last Monetarist]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/aug/03/sturgeon-on-brink-cooperation-deal-scottish-greens

Nicola Sturgeon is on the brink of signing a deal with the Scottish Greens that would cement a pro-independence majority at Holyrood and may see the Greens taking ministerial seats.

The Guardian understands a final agreement is close to being signed, with preparations under way to put the deal to Sturgeon’s cabinet as early as next Tuesday.

The formal deal, which will stop short of a full coalition of the kind agreed by the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats under David Cameron and Nick Clegg in 2010, would give the Scottish National party and Scottish Greens a clear majority of seats at Holyrood.

It would allow the first minister to present a strong pro-climate agenda in advance of the Cop26 climate talks in Glasgow this November, and outvote anti-independence parties in Holyrood.

Sturgeon currently leads a minority government after the SNP won 64 of Holyrood’s 129 seats in May’s elections, leaving her one short of an outright majority. The pro-independence Greens hold seven seats, giving a putative SNP-Green alliance a comfortable cushion.

It is understood nearly all the key policy discussions, around areas such as spending, climate, conservation, transport and local government, are close to being agreed. One source said the two sides “were 95% there, but the last few percentage points are the hardest”.

It would be the first time after 14 years in power the SNP had signed a formal deal with another party: Alex Salmond, the former first minister, frequently brokered policy-by-policy deals with the Tories and Greens after narrowly winning power in 2007 by a single seat. Since then the Greens have most often done deals to pass SNP budgets at Holyrood.

The biggest remaining hurdles are around collective responsibility and setting out how much freedom the Scottish Greens have to disagree with Scottish government decisions, including opposing them in parliament.

The deal could allow the Greens to criticise Sturgeon’s stance on North Sea oil exploration, with pressure mounting on the Scottish government from climate campaigners to oppose the proposed Cambo oilfield development 77 miles north-west of Shetland.

The Scottish government, which has previously refused to endorse Green demands for an end to North Sea exploration and drilling, has indicated it will not oppose Cambo’s approval. Scottish government officials argue that since UK ministers control oil licensing, Sturgeon cannot change that decision.

Lorna Slater, co-leader of the Greens, who has been closely involved in the talks, demonstrated outside the UK government’s offices in Edinburgh in protest at a decision to approve Cambo. Before May’s election, the Scottish Greens said Sturgeon “had to get serious on the climate emergency” in order to agree a deal.

Shell estimates the Cambo development will produce 164m barrels of oil, emissions equivalent to running 16 coal-fired power stations for a year. Greenpeace says that will heavily undermine the UK’s and Scotland’s efforts to meet challenging net zero targets.

Failing to agree a firm commitment from Sturgeon’s government to end North Sea oil drilling could anger Scottish Green party members. Under the Green party’s rules, its members must approve a Holyrood deal at a special conference before it can come into force.

The deal will present Scottish Labour, currently Holyrood’s third-largest party, with a significant political challenge. It is likely to give Sturgeon a resilient centre-left majority and removes her need to seek deals with Labour to get policies through the devolved parliament.

Labour’s leaders believe the deal could come under intense strain, however, if the Scottish Greens begin clashing with Sturgeon and other SNP ministers over policies and spending.

It could increase pressure on Labour to work closely with the Liberal Democrats, now Holyrood’s smallest party, in attacking government policies. Labour and the Lib Dems ran Scotland’s first two devolved governments in formal coalitions in 1999 and 2003.

Perhaps because word of an impending deal has filtered down to Whitehall, the Conservatives are taking a softer line on the potential for a fresh independence referendum, in a clear shift away from Boris Johnson’s original refusal to countenance such a vote.

Michael Gove, the Cabinet Office minister, told the Sunday Mail at the weekend that “the principle that the people of Scotland, in the right circumstances, can ask that question again is there”.

Recent opinion polls show support for independence has again fallen to below 50%, partly driven by public support for the UK government’s vaccination strategy.