If there is one sport I love even more than Test cricket, it's international football.
So here is my thinking, ranked by previous victories.
BRAZIL *****
I cannot see Brazil winning.
They are an older version of the team which didn't win in 2018, and the only upgrade is Vinicius Jr. But in the recent Superclasico he was completely subdued by Ronald Araujo.
GERMANY ****
I can see Germany winning, perhaps.
They have a young, mobile team and they will be very hard to defend against.
URUGUAY ****
Long shots.
They are clearly the third best South Anerican team, and players like Gimenez, Araujo, Valverde, Betancur, De Arrascaeta and Nunez are the right age and quality.
The problem is the same one which saw Chile go out this week. Suarez, Godin and Cavani are no more the same players that they used to be than Vidal and Alexis Sanchez, and too many 2010 survivors is a risk, not a benefit.
FRANCE **
Still the most likely winners.
They have the best players at the right age, but continue to struggle from the drawback of a conservative coach who cannot build a positive team, and who would be unemployable as a coach to a top club.
ARGENTINA **
Again, long shots.
Best goalie they have had for years and a decent crop of players.
But Messi didn't win the World Cup aged 19 or 23 or 27 or 31. And now he only really plays in five minute bursts three or four times per match. So why would a 35 year old Messi create more success than a 27 year old Messi did?
ENGLAND *
The second best group of players after France.
But, like France, handicapped by a conservative coach who would be unemployable at a top club. He will grind his way to narrow victories like against Colombia last time around, but his team will never see the ball against top teams.
SPAIN *
Probably too young. They have a nice unit coming together, but there a few too many slots where they are a bit short of quality. And the goalkeeper is a walking accident.
NETHERLANDS
This could be their year.
The spine of Van Dijk, De Ligt, Dumfries, Frenkie De Jong and Depay is the right age and Van Gaal is a far smarter coach than Frank DE Boer was.
The main handicaps are the lack of a top goalkeeper and a top Number 9.
BELGIUM
Too old.
It saddens me to say it, but this team has gone past its peak.
Who else is good?
The micro-nations - Croatia and Wales - have a few top players who are ageing and the next generation is inferior.
Denmark are pretty good, but are also weak in certain positions.
I have two dark horses which could go far like Senegal 2002, Ghana 2010 and Costa Rica 2014.
Canada have decent players who are physically fast and powerful and who play a pacey counter-attacking game. If they can get out of the group they could shock people. A top team which plays with a high defensive line could be seriously embarrassed by Canada on the counter-attack, rather like when Colombia beat Argentina 5-0 away in 1993.
And Senegal have a golden generation of talent.
So here is my thinking, ranked by previous victories.
BRAZIL *****
I cannot see Brazil winning.
They are an older version of the team which didn't win in 2018, and the only upgrade is Vinicius Jr. But in the recent Superclasico he was completely subdued by Ronald Araujo.
GERMANY ****
I can see Germany winning, perhaps.
They have a young, mobile team and they will be very hard to defend against.
URUGUAY ****
Long shots.
They are clearly the third best South Anerican team, and players like Gimenez, Araujo, Valverde, Betancur, De Arrascaeta and Nunez are the right age and quality.
The problem is the same one which saw Chile go out this week. Suarez, Godin and Cavani are no more the same players that they used to be than Vidal and Alexis Sanchez, and too many 2010 survivors is a risk, not a benefit.
FRANCE **
Still the most likely winners.
They have the best players at the right age, but continue to struggle from the drawback of a conservative coach who cannot build a positive team, and who would be unemployable as a coach to a top club.
ARGENTINA **
Again, long shots.
Best goalie they have had for years and a decent crop of players.
But Messi didn't win the World Cup aged 19 or 23 or 27 or 31. And now he only really plays in five minute bursts three or four times per match. So why would a 35 year old Messi create more success than a 27 year old Messi did?
ENGLAND *
The second best group of players after France.
But, like France, handicapped by a conservative coach who would be unemployable at a top club. He will grind his way to narrow victories like against Colombia last time around, but his team will never see the ball against top teams.
SPAIN *
Probably too young. They have a nice unit coming together, but there a few too many slots where they are a bit short of quality. And the goalkeeper is a walking accident.
NETHERLANDS
This could be their year.
The spine of Van Dijk, De Ligt, Dumfries, Frenkie De Jong and Depay is the right age and Van Gaal is a far smarter coach than Frank DE Boer was.
The main handicaps are the lack of a top goalkeeper and a top Number 9.
BELGIUM
Too old.
It saddens me to say it, but this team has gone past its peak.
Who else is good?
The micro-nations - Croatia and Wales - have a few top players who are ageing and the next generation is inferior.
Denmark are pretty good, but are also weak in certain positions.
I have two dark horses which could go far like Senegal 2002, Ghana 2010 and Costa Rica 2014.
Canada have decent players who are physically fast and powerful and who play a pacey counter-attacking game. If they can get out of the group they could shock people. A top team which plays with a high defensive line could be seriously embarrassed by Canada on the counter-attack, rather like when Colombia beat Argentina 5-0 away in 1993.
And Senegal have a golden generation of talent.
