If the ICC pools all revenue in a Minus India world, and contracts all international players centrally itself along the Australian domestic sport model:
1. All players from New Zealand, South Africa, West Indies, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Zimbabwe and Pakistan obtain at least a $100,000 annual pay rise, and the top five players from each country obtain at least a $250,000 pay rise.
There would be tiered contracts:
Tier 1: $500,000 per year (e.g. Root, Starc, De Kock, Boult, Shakib)
Tier 2: $400,000 per year (e.g. Tamim, Watling, Philander)
Tier 3: $300,000 per year (e.g. marginal international players)
Tier 4: $200,000 per year (emerging young internationals)
2. And the Boards don't pay this: the ICC does, out of revenue from TV contracts. This requires less income than Australian AFL and NRL ALREADY obtain, and they don't sell rights overseas at all, let alone to India.
3. That only leaves players from Australia and England who may, in a handful of cases, suffer pay cuts. In practice, the only players who would would be Joe Root, Ben Stokes, David Warner, Steve Smith and Mitchell Starc, as all other players already earn less than 400,000 pounds per year.
4. I fully accept that India could and would go it alone, to answer [MENTION=142162]Napa[/MENTION] . My guess is that they would move to a 6 month IPL with contracts between $1 million and $6 million.
5. The ICC would respond the way they did with ICL, by making cricketers with IPL contracts banned from all international cricket.
6. At that point, pretty much every top class cricketer outside India who was over 30 with an IPL offer would leave.
7. So would every player under 30 who faced no prospect of a secure international future.
But every player aged under 30 would be happy to stay for a contract of $300,000 to $400,000 per year in their home country, plus the prospect of T20 top-ups (excluding IPL).
The players who would go would, in the example of Australia, be the likes of Dave Warner - now 30 years old - and inferior younger players like Sean Abbott.