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Buying shares?

pia786 said:
If it is any consolation that is indeed true and experience is a brilliant teacher.

Jesse Livermore book is excellent insight into psychology of trading that is why i suggested that Guy Thomas book might be interesting for some. No one way is right. Those guys have at times mutually exclusive methodologies but they still succeed because they have found a mentality and method which suits their particular psyche.

It is important to understand why you made mistakes (which you seem to have done) so you don't repeat them. I had some horrendous 90% losers when I started out and still have occasional losers but tend to take my losses earlier now and have more 'discipline'.

e.g. I won't be stubborn or arrogant about my intellectual rationalising of a position now, i respect the technicals, if a stock is 'acting bad' i'll cut my position

When i started out i believed the b.s. about only using Fundamental Analysis but many of the top hedge fund managers and traders I have worked with use technical analysis to at very least time trades exit/entry or provide early warnign signal something may be wrong with fundamentals.

Also some of my horrendous losses a few years later I have been very grateful for because I've been able to use them to write of Capital Gains in current year. So it's nice that the taxman shares those losses.
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my experience is similar to yours bro, but on much shorter time scale, lols. i thought ta was a load of hocus pocus until i studied it and applied it in different forms and it started working for me. i use it less to make desicions on whether to buy or sell, more to time the buys and sells and its worked well enough, id say on average it has added 4 to 5% since i have employed basic ta. im not a very frequent trader so i can afford to focus hard on each transaction as it comes.

apart from that one stock, i think ive done okay. but i dont like comparing myself to others.

Eagle_Eye said:
ElRaja - You might want to let us know which companies you bought incase someone else has bit more information that can aid you in your decision.

Everyone at some point will make bad decisions... but crucially you need to learn from these mistakes. Do not commit money that you cannot afford to lose/tied up with a share. What I have learnt from mistakes is that I never thought of paying much attention to what to do in a losing position with respect to at what point to call it quits on that share. As AIM is not strongly regulated, make sure you look into the history of the people you are entrusting to make you money... the BOD. As at times, the product can be excellent but the incompetence of the BOD can wipe out that upside.
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the first point you make bro is so true, luckily enough before investing a penny i invested in a little book by ben graham some of you may know about, and i think without exception that book has been my greatest investment till date.

i agree with your second point, i do not consider my self good enough at analysing to go buying into AIM stocks. I am willing to except i wont make great returns for the security of making acceptable returns.

DeadlyVenom said:
What did you do in Uni? I'm in my final year and applied to a couple of them places aswell but straight rejections :( ... might do another degree for a year in economics or finance and then give it another go next year.
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i did a degree in physics at ucl bro. it was great, unfortunately for me i kind of fell out of love with physics because in the end it became frustratingly difficult because i didnt focus enough when i should have. My fault not the subjects, lols.

I sat one module exam having missed many lectures and then studying 130 pages of someone elses notes the night before the exam. the most messed up night of my life, thought i was literally going crazy, went to the toilet in the morning and had dry blood stains on the my head (skinhead), had no idea where they came from. then for no reason i bought shares in the stock i mentioned earlier in the morning.

anyhoo i digress, unfortunately back in a-levels i had no idea of money management, otw i may have chosen a diff degree.
 
ElRaja said:
i did a degree in physics at ucl bro. it was great, unfortunately for me i kind of fell out of love with physics because in the end it became frustratingly difficult because i didnt focus enough when i should have. My fault not the subjects, lols.

I sat one module exam having missed many lectures and then studying 130 pages of someone elses notes the night before the exam. the most messed up night of my life, thought i was literally going crazy, went to the toilet in the morning and had dry blood stains on the my head (skinhead), had no idea where they came from. then for no reason i bought shares in the stock i mentioned earlier in the morning.

anyhoo i digress, unfortunately back in a-levels i had no idea of money management, otw i may have chosen a diff degree.
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I've pretty much fell out of love with engineering, turned down a couple of jobs this year because I couldn't see myself doing them. That night before your exam sounds crazy man! Trying to cram 130 pages in one night requires rain man capabilities :hafeez

Still...we're young got plenty of time to work out how to find the job of our dreams!
 
ElRaja - UCL is one of the top places. In anycase, life is not about sitting and regretting about what could have been but about continuos learning and its usually from mistakes. Funny enough you learn the most from your mistakes... be it investing in shares or any other aspect of business or personal life.

Friend of mind also did Physics at UCL (came out with 1st). She then went into investment banking and is quite senior in JP Morgan now... Although she started 12 years ago in a totally different environment.
 
couldnt agree with you more eagle eye.

girte'n hai'n shah savaar medain-e-jang mei'n,
woh tifl kyaa giray, jo gutno'n kai bul chullay.
 
TXO - may be one to keep an eye on, as it looks as though it will aim to move into similar territory to BPC
 
FOGL news so far being taken quite well.

Now has about 205m shares is issue so Mkt Cap @ 80p is £160m

However it now has $160m to pursue drilling on the main Loligo prospect which has as much as a potential 4.7 bn barrels of oil with Chance of Success of 10%

Valuing each barrel at $10/bbl that implies a 10% chance of $47bn so $4.7bn

Even applying a simple additional arbitrary discount for the binary chance of success or failure that is potential for $2.35bn of value on a £160m Mkt Cap ($250m)

That to me suggests potential for a 5-10 bagger between now and Q1 2012.

I'll be buying more FOGL today.

I really can't believe this level of mispricing will exist for long.

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PIA - DES has put me off FI Oilies.... When do FOGL they start to drill? Just realised the SP is close to its 5 year low..

On another note, RRL about to announce a significant acquisition as well as a share placement...
 
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I remember the FOGL IPO quite well. My mother bought shares in the IPO at 40p. It opened at 120p odd so she tripled her money in a few days on that one !

So I think getting in at 80p, 4-5 years later and with a lot more cash on the balance sheet and a lot more seismic etc done is a good deal.

Here is the Investor Presentation out today.

http://www.fogl.com/fogl/uploads/companypresentations/WebsiteInvestorPresentation19April2011.pdf

re DES I was bearish from the start of their campaign they never struck me as 'proper' people and they only ever attracted the retail investor crowd

the RKH and FOGL guys are much more professional, whilst BOR guys are 'rockstars' and have got Lansdowne Partners as significant investors
 
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Atleast FOGL committed to drilling next year... compare that to CHAR and BPC!! Continuous resource updates but no drilling commitments.
 
I prefer them when they don't drill there is no duster risk.

Just like gold exploration companies i prefer them not to mine and just stick to exploring. If they have to mine it is a bad sign to me that the explo was not good enough to prove up a big enough resoruce to make it an attractive take out candidate for a major ro aspiring major.
 
pia - whats the history with BHP, why did they backout? Although, they did retain the option of buying back into Loligo at a later date. I am intrigued as to why such a huge company decided not to explore.
 
they are a big bureaucratic corporate so i am sure there are multiple reasons at play and probably all wrong

they tend to place high emphasis on CSEM and the last well suggested there was a 'false positive' so they may have lost faith in the geological underpinnings to the drill and they also tend to only drill what they regard as 1 in 2 CoS wells and so this campaign was always an outlier

however they have retained an option so if the drill does gush they can back into it and then claim subsequent drills on now proven play types as part of their 1 in 2 track record

i personally see them going as a good sign
 
Cannacord comment out on FT Alphaville just now

The group will share the deepwater Eirik Raude semisubmersible rig with Borders & Southern, who will take the first two slots in Q4 this year. FOGL's huge Loligo prospect will target total oil reserves of 4.7bn barrels (on a Pmean basis) across multiple objectives. Depending on the success or otherwise of the well the group is considering a second well, although this would be subject to additional funding. The fundraising is good news for FOGL, it now puts it in a stronger position to farmout part of its acreage. Bear in mind that although BHP recently withdrew its 51% interest from the licences, it is retaining an interest in the Loligo well by paying its costs, with a back-in option for 40% of any discovery. Whilst the North Falklands basin has had mixed exploration success (RKH good, DES bad), the deepwater Southern Basin is untested. I'd hold both BOR and FOGL running into the wells, as the structures to the south are genuinely huge.
 
Evolution take

EVO TAKE – FOGL has signed a heads of agreement with Borders &
Southern to take one, and potentially two, slots on the upcoming drilling
campaign. FOGL will be third in the sequence, commencing drilling
sometime in 1H 2012, and is committing to drill the Loligo exploration
prospect which has a PMean resource estimate of 4.7bn bbls.
DETAILS – In conjunction with the rig announcement FOGL has raised
£32m of fresh equity at 70p/sh, a 14% discount to last night’s close price.
In addition, FOGL has secured the conversion of the RAB convertible into
ordinary shares and is currently negotiating with the Falkland Island
Government regarding the extension of the Northern Licenses which expire
on 15th December 2011. With a rig now contracted, it is our view that this
consent will be forthcoming.NHVALUATION AND RECOMMENDATION – FOGL is at the edge of high
risk/high reward opportunities but the upside case is attractive. We
calculate a revised Core + Risked value of 959p/share based upon the new
share count and undated resource estimates. Unrisked this rises to 9591p
vs a current share price of 81p!
 
It'll probably cost $100m+ for two drills. The rig cost is probably $500k per day
 
The company seeking funds might ask for the extra insurance of getting the funds by seeking their advisers underwrite the agreement i.e. take the shortfall of any placing. That insurance will usually cost money in fees and it may be more important if there is some risk to the placing not taking place. I assume they have enough assurance that the funds will be raised in their pre-marketing that they don't see the need to have it underwritten. The placing is itself conditional on them signing the H of A with BOR for the rig so should that not occur they would not need the money anyway.
 
From FT Alphaville

apparently there were some noises this morning about a big commodity investment bank raising its forecast for gold to $2000 an ounce..still digging that out


but we have a note from Fairfax this morning pointing out the bullish reasons behind gold’s ascent..lots of bullet points i am afraid


Gold prices break key $1,503/oz this morning

Reasons:
• US debt downgrade causes global concern prompting some investments to move to gold
• Inflationary concerns driven by rising oil prices
• Fears of further unrest in the Middle East with four killed in the Yemen
• Prospect of a long drawn out conflict in Libya
• Rising wealth in developing economies is generating new demand for gold in dowry and other forms. Low confidence in banks and in related currencies in emerging markets causes local investors to store wealth in physical form eg in gold, silver and other valued metals.
• ETF inflows are reported to have risen in the week although we see the giant SPDR fund as showing some outflows in recent days following a substantial jump on 14th April from 39moz to 39.6moz.

• The WGC reports that gold jewellery demand remains strong at around 54% of total demand in 2010, a rise of 17% on 2009, this is despite a rise of 26% in the annual average gold price and a 54t fall in demand in the US and Europe.
• Asian consumers made up 51% of total jewellery and investment demand last year according to the WGC. Asian consumers feel good about the price progression of gold. They see gold prices having a strong negative correlation with mainstream markets giving a degree of protection against unforeseen events.
• Indian consumers are seen buying gold on price dips and China is catching up fast as a gold buying market.
• Investment demand is still seen picking up driven by purchases of gold coins.
• Central banks turned to net buyers of gold last year drying up a substantial supply of gold into the market.
• Gold miners also moved to buy back gold hedging programs which tightened the futures market and helped to lift physical prices.
If central banks continue to hold gold or to make even small purchases then gold prices could lift substantially.
 
just a little update, talking things with you guys helped clear my mind.

i realised i was holding onto a loser which i had no rationale for buying in the first palce, because for some reason i wanted to break even.

after a bit of thought i realised this was illogical, so decided first oppertunity i get i will sell that position. today got such an oppertunity so divested quickly, for a 14% loss.

i know its not cool to post about losses, but just wanted to say that i have learnt a lesson. never will i get into anything without a strong logical reasoning behind it and observing it for a few weeks before hand. thanks guys.
 
http://www.oilbarrel.com/nc/news/di...2-million-for-2012-drilling-campaign/771.html

April 20, 2011

Falklands Oil & Gas Limited Secures Rig Slot And Raises £32 Million For 2012 Drilling Campaign

The past nine or ten months have been a pretty choppy ride for any explorers in the Falklands Islands who don’t happen to be Rockhopper Exploration. While Rockhopper has ridden high on the back of its Sea Lion oil discovery in the North Falkland Basin, the other explorers have foundered as poor drilling results scuppered once bullish sentiment for these remote waters in the Southern Atlantic.
Falkland Oil & Gas is among those to have taken on board water, even though its acreage to the south and east of the islands lies in a completely different geological setting from most of the recent dud wells in the North Falkland Basin. Of these, the most recent is Desire Petroleum’s Ninky well, which has been P&A after finding poor quality reservoirs, sending the AIM-listed company’s already ailing share price into a further tailspin.

Admittedly, FOGL’s one well of the recent campaign, Toroa in its Southern Licence area, was a duster but this well, the first in the East Falklands Basin, was chosen because it fell within the limited range of the rig hired for the North Falkland Basin exploration campaign rather than because it was the best prospect to drill. Even so, FOGL was punished harshly for this failing, with its share price crashing in the wake of the Toroa duster and then sliding further when it became clear farm-in partner BHP Billiton was withdrawing from the region.

This week, however, FOGL has announced some positive moves that should see it drilling its deepwater acreage in Q1 2012 (although the Northern Licence is due to expire on 15 December 2011, FOGL is confident it can get an extension to cover the planned drilling campaign). The company has announced plans for a placing priced at 70 pence per share to raise £32 million.

This, plus existing cash resources and the proceeds of monies owing from BHP Billiton, should give FOGL the financial headroom to fully test its Loligo prospect next year. The company is also hoping to find another farm-in partner to strengthen its financial position and add another well to the 2012 campaign.
Importantly, the AIM-quoted company has now signed heads of agreement with fellow explorer Borders & Southern, which like FOGL is focused on these frontier waters to the south of the islands, to share a rig to drill in the first half of 2012. This will be the first time a deepwater rig has mobilized to these remote waters and it means FOGL can at last drill the Loligo prospect and, in the event it secures further funding or a farm-in partner, possibly one other prospect in 2012.

Loligo lies in the Tertiary Channel play and has an estimated Pmean reserve of 4.7 billion barrels in several reservoir objectives. FOGL has the financial resources to drill a well on the Loligo complex to penetrate reservoirs containing 46 per cent of the estimated Pmean reserves but the placing will allow it to deepen the well to target the Trigg, Trigg Deep and Three Bears reservoir objectives, which hold the remaining 54 per cent of the Loligo complex's estimated Pmean reserves.

The possible second well slot might see an appraisal of Loligo if the first well is successful or another prospect within the Tertiary Channel play such as Nimrod (1.5 billion barrels) or Vinson (733 million barrels). If the Loligo results are disappointing, then the company would switch its attention to the Mid Cretaceous fan play, with the Scotia prospect, with Pmean reserves of 1 billion barrels, being the most likely option. If Borders & Southern has success on its Darwin prospect, then FOGL may drill the nearby Inflexible prospect, which is more modest at 250 million barrels but would make sense to drill a de-risked target close to an existing discovery. From an investor’s point of view, the wide range of play types and prospects is good news, which, given the latest fundraising, ensures FOGL has the flexibility to make the most of next year’s all-important drilling campaign.
 
Mr Mohamed Al Fayed

Statement regarding Pinewood Shepperton plc

Mr Mohamed Al Fayed notes the recent speculation concerning a possible offer by him for Pinewood Shepperton plc ("Pinewood").

Mr Al Fayed confirms he is considering making an all cash offer for Pinewood.

There can be no certainty that an offer will be forthcoming.

http://fool.uk-wire.com/Article.aspx?id=201104211031103473F
 
On my watchlist for research over coming days/week :-

What they all have in common is that the stocks have collapsed for very good reason but have not really fully partaken in the global recovery so far or may have new management catalyst to bring about some positive change not yet discounted/appreciated by the market ?

HVE Havelock Europa :- Andrew Burgess principal at Carlyle Partners (Europe) has turned up as a big investor. Chart looks interesting. Potential for big turnaround. Company valued at £5m with £100m p.a. turnover. (albeit £20m of debt so the £5m Market Cap is actually Enterprise Value of £25m)

PPC President Petroleum :- will fall on open Tuesday as RHPS have come out with sell. But worth keeping an eye on after two massive dusters because Peter Levene a big shareholder/CEO wants to use it as a vehicle for 'transformational' acquisitions. Not sure if it is a busted flush or not. He still retains some following after amazing price he achieved on selling his last venture Imperial ? He does like these grandiose names...

GMA Gold Mines of Algeria :- Algeria is proving rubbish but some interesting stuff going on in background with 'Sahara Gold' taking 30% so I think could be some 'take-under' shenanigans there at some point

MOG Mediterranean Oil & Gas :- Massive dilution coming, stock will collapse on Tuesday and there will be lots of nasty recriminations going on for a while. However might get interesting at some point for new shareholders as the new management team look interesting. Plenty of East European experience especially Poland. Actually ex-founder of Aurelian is getting on board so deffo worth watching.

LKI Landkom :- Ukraine agriculture play. Soft commodities have had a run and these guys have been lowering operating costs/rightsizing business into that so could be interesting 'JAWS' on the EBITDA coming. Management just awarded themselves a stack of options, I presume harvest is looking good, AGM in a couple of weeks.
 
PIA what does transformational acquisitions mean?

Was going to buy PPC when the SP had dropped to 40p...very happy I didn't
 
Sometimes you get dealmakers like levene alighting on otherwise crap companies with crap management and crap assets which are valued as crap and doing a deal which transforms that company to good or brilliant in eyes of investors. Recent transformational deals were PMG 2p to 20p as Tom Cross arrived on the scene and CNR 0.5p to 10p after they reversed in an exciting company making Nicaraguan gold licence
 
pia786, if you don't mind me asking - how much income in a year after tax would you make off the stock market? Is it enough for you not to have to work at all?
 
That's between me and the taxman :p

I don't need to work and can earn an income right now from investing but it ain't easy and I would not recommend it as the market can change and not be as friendly as it has been last few years.

Typically equity markets return around 8 per cent a year over long periods but that is capital and income.

The FTSE 100 yields about 4% gross p.a. dividend yield. So to make more than that you have to hope the shares you are in go up to deliver capital gains which entails taking on greater risk of capital loss as well. That might get you an extra few percentage points of return. Bear in mind though that even the best investment gurus only achieve consistent rates of 15%. Hedge funds tend to aim for about 10% p.a.

We are in a pretty exceptional market though at the moment where stocks and markets can go up and down 5-10% very frequently. It is probably more of a traders market than investors right now. I'd only generally advise people to invest what they can afford to lose especially if they are just starting out. I back myself to make 10-15% a year having had years of professional training and experience and still make mistakes. Most if the stocks I mention on here will simply be interesting punts in which I have 1-2% positions. The majority of my portfolio would be in less binary investments.
 
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pia786 said:
That's between me and the taxman :p

I don't need to work and can earn an income right now from investing but it ain't easy and I would not recommend it as the market can change and not be as friendly as it has been last few years.

Typically equity markets return around 8 per cent a year over long periods but that is capital and income.

The FTSE 100 yields about 4% gross p.a. dividend yield. So to make more than that you have to hope the shares you are in go up to deliver capital gains which entails taking on greater risk of capital loss as well. That might get you an extra few percentage points of return. Bear in mind though that even the best investment gurus only achieve consistent rates of 15%. Hedge funds tend to aim for about 10% p.a.

We are in a pretty exceptional market though at the moment where stocks and markets can go up and down 5-10% very frequently. It is probably more of a traders market than investors right now. I'd only generally advise people to invest what they can afford to lose especially if they are just starting out. I back myself to make 10-15% a year having had years of professional training and experience and still make mistakes. Most if the stocks I mention on here will simply be interesting punts in which I have 1-2% positions. The majority of my portfolio would be in less binary investments.
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sensible answer bro, i think i had a good first year by tooka (fluke) for a starter, second year already tougher than first.

i hate it when people who are trying to sell there newsletters, or magazines, or websites about tips, try to insinuate if you arent making 30%-40% a year its bad. I used to feel insecure about my returns, and think about doing silly things before.

if you dont mind me asking, hw old were u when u started learning about investing, and at what age did you start actually doing it?
 
I started getting interested in Investing when I was doing A Level in Economics at school. Used to read the business pages and the stock market daily reports seemed an interesting insight into how companies were operating in the economy.

Then studied Economics at Uni and first investment was a Far East Emerging Market growth fund which collapsed about 50% within a year. So then I lost faith in other people running my money and started investing myself in stocks I thought I might have information advantage on. One of my first investments was Man Utd. Those were pre-internet days (early mid 90s) so had to walk into a 'share shop'. It is much easier nowadays you don't have to talk to people or take in several forms of I.D. with you.

The experience of investing successfull off my own back meant I decided to try to pursue it as a career and managed to get a job with one of the top city investment management companies on their graduate trainee scheme. It helped that practitioners interviewed me and saw my personal investing as a good indicator. I doubt 'HR professionals' would have had the same view which is why i got turned down by 20+ City Investment Banks.
 
Bought miniscule amounts of HVE,LKI,MOG,PPC and GON early doors today.

GON is a ridiculous little company (Mkt Cap £4m) which has been a shocker down from 25p to 2.5p

It has loads of rubbish in it including 'Sokator 442' some sort of sub Ben 10 type rubbish involving soccer and aliens.

http://www.galleonent.com/sokator442.php?p=properties&b=sokator442

"In a World where soccer has replaced war..."

However it does have a chinese online game division/portal which apparently 'generates' revenue of about £5m p.a. (i expect most of this goes to the game publishers rather than sticks with the portal') and these sort of online properties can be potentially huge if they take off. GON was featured in FT Market Report comment last week as Guy Thomas mentioned here previously has taken a 3%+ stake. He's an actuary and they tend to be risk averse.
 
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April 26, 11
By Our Man In Oz
If in doubt that the global resources boom has years, perhaps decades to run two totally unrelated documents were released yesterday which will settle the debate. First came news that Canada’s gold leader, Barrick, was prepared to pay A$7.2 billion for the Australian-listed (but African and Arabian focussed) copper miner, Equinox Minerals. Then came an astonishing analysis of the outlook for global commodities from Jeremy Grantham, the British economist who has made the study of economic bubbles his forte. His latest quarterly newsletter from the company he co-founded, Grantham Mayo Van Ottterloo (GMO) is headed “Time to wake up: Days of Abundant Resources and Falling Prices are Over Forever”.
Equinox first because Barrick’s A$7 billion is a remarkable A$1 billion more than a rival bid lodged three weeks earlier by the Chinese based Minmetals group. Quite simply, Barrick “nuked” the game with a offer that was too big for Equinox to refuse and for Minmetals to counter. But, as the big goldminer with a suddenly revitalised interest in copper storms towards outright ownership some investors will be wondering what’s changed so suddenly. Why has Barrick dipped into its cash kitty to pay A$8 billion for a business which just 12-months ago was valued at A$3 billion?

The two-part answer is that Equinox had become available, first by launching a corporate raid of its own on Lundin Mining, and then by the attempted Minmetals raid. But the second reason is far more important. Barrick has been studying the same data as Jeremy Grantham about future global demand for commodities, declining ore grades and crop yields, the relentless rise of the world’s population, and rising commodity consumption levels in China.

In a document which his critics might see as a conversion to rival that of St Paul on the road to Damascus, or Germaine Greer who suddenly decided that men aren’t all bad, Grantham constructed his fascinating analysis which stopped short of giving price tips but did appear to attack his most famous field of study: bubbles. For decades, Grantham has been arguing (and making profits for clients on the strength of those arguments) that all asset classes eventually “revert to their mean”, economist code for prices eventually returning from high levels to their long-term trend.

This time around Grantham has turned positively Malthusian, while also adopting one of those dreadful expressions from the tech-boom of the late 1990s – “paradigm shift”. What appears to have happened is that he has peered into his data sets and discovered that (a) the global population has surged from 800 million in 1800 to 7 billion today, (b) growth in crop yields per acre has plunged from 3.5 per cent a year in the 1960s to 1.2 per cent now, (c) that China is consuming staggering volumes of commodities, accounting on its own for 53.2 per cent of the world’s cement, 47.7 per cent of its iron ore, 40.6 per cent of its aluminium and 38.9 per cent of its copper, and (d) that the average grade of the world’s recoverable copper ore has fallen from around 0.75 per cent as recently as 1995 to less than 0.55 per cent today.

The key, for Minesite readers, are those copper numbers, rising Chinese consumption and falling grade, and if Grantham knows it so does Barrick, and so does every commodity consuming country in the world. That is why the one-time bubble champion of the economic world arrived at the conclusion that: “The prices of all important commodities, except oil, declined for 100 years until 2002, by an average of 70 per cent. From 2002 until now, this entire decline was erased by a bigger price surge than occurred during World War II. Statistically, most commodities are now so far away from their former downward trend that it makes it very probable that the old trend has been reversed – that there is in fact a paradigm shift – perhaps the most important economic event since the industrial revolution”

Grantham’s recommendation is that countries start preparing for a global shortfall in commodities with “price pressure and shortages of resources a permanent feature of our lives”. No reversion to mean there by the bubble king who is putting his money where his mouth his by directing a small position “say one quarter of my eventual target in stuff in the ground and resource efficiency”.

Barrick is doing exactly the same thing by paying top dollar for Equinox to access a company with abundant copper reserves. It will not be alone. Grantham’s conversion on the road to his personal paradigm shift will reverberate around the world

•*Footnote. At no stage in this story did Minesite’s Man in Oz use the words “told you so” – but it was bloody tempting!
 
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On my watchlist for research over coming days/week :-

What they all have in common is that the stocks have collapsed for very good reason but have not really fully partaken in the global recovery so far or may have new management catalyst to bring about some positive change not yet discounted/appreciated by the market ?

HVE Havelock Europa :- Andrew Burgess principal at Carlyle Partners (Europe) has turned up as a big investor. Chart looks interesting. Potential for big turnaround. Company valued at £5m with £100m p.a. turnover. (albeit £20m of debt so the £5m Market Cap is actually Enterprise Value of £25m)

UPDATE : Bought a bit at 15p, quite strange that it is going almost vertical. Maybe the new shareholder is buying in prior to results ?

PPC President Petroleum :- will fall on open Tuesday as RHPS have come out with sell. But worth keeping an eye on after two massive dusters because Peter Levene a big shareholder/CEO wants to use it as a vehicle for 'transformational' acquisitions. Not sure if it is a busted flush or not. He still retains some following after amazing price he achieved on selling his last venture Imperial ? He does like these grandiose names...

UPDATE : Bought some at 21.6p on the RHPS crowd sell down. They do still retain a decent chunk of cash almost equivalent to market cap so any upside optionality/transformational deals are in for 'free'. May at worst be dead money ? Fear is they do a dilutive placing to get more funds in place prior to any 'transformational' deal.

GMA Gold Mines of Algeria :- Algeria is proving rubbish but some interesting stuff going on in background with 'Sahara Gold' taking 30% so I think could be some 'take-under' shenanigans there at some point

UPDATE : Not bought in yet. But only intend to buy a bit anyway as it could go bust within month.

MOG Mediterranean Oil & Gas :- Massive dilution coming, stock will collapse on Tuesday and there will be lots of nasty recriminations going on for a while. However might get interesting at some point for new shareholders as the new management team look interesting. Plenty of East European experience especially Poland. Actually ex-founder of Aurelian is getting on board so deffo worth watching.

UPDATE : Bought a small amount on early morning dip in 8's so nice to see it rally to 10p intraday. However lots of placing stock at 6p due to come on market and hard to see real value at moment so will hold off buying more until new management make plans clearer. The Market Cap jumped from around £7m to £40m+ with the debt conversion.

LKI Landkom :- Ukraine agriculture play. Soft commodities have had a run and these guys have been lowering operating costs/rightsizing business into that so could be interesting 'JAWS' on the EBITDA coming. Management just awarded themselves a stack of options, I presume harvest is looking good, AGM in a couple of weeks.

UPDATE : Bought some at 6p quite happy for it to retrace a bit because with management option grants at 6p i feel quite safe buying around that level for exposure to a decent soft commodities play with operational turnaround leverage. Will hopefully make it to AGM in a few weeks.

With all of these 'trades' I see some potential for long term positive outcome but possibility of some short term moves as well. Will try to keep this post updated for next few weeks.
 
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RHPS seems to have quite a large following. PPC for example went down quite a bit after they came out with a sell. Right from the morning looking at last 100 trades about 90 odd seem to be sells. Don't know if people got scared it would drop further and just jumped ship.
 
Good call Mediterranean Oil & Gas closed on Thursday at 14p announced a placing at 6p and opened up today at 8! Now sitting at 10.25. 6p price was quite ridicuous. Im too inexperienced to know why so low. Did buy a small amount today and sold for a quick profit. Looks quite promising for future aswell but have a feeling price will yo yo around for a bit and will be able to buy bck in low.
 
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DeadlyVenom said:
Good call Mediterranean Oil & Gas closed on Thursday at 14p announced a placing at 6p and opened up today at 8! Now sitting at 10.25. 6p price was quite ridicuous. Im too inexperienced to know why so low. Did buy a small amount today and sold for a quick profit. Looks quite promising for future aswell but have a feeling price will yo yo around for a bit and will be able to buy bck in low.
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The company was on the verge of bankruptcy. One can argue even that was too high. I expect the price to hover around 6p as a minimum until the plans become clearer. Tunisian license will be allowed to expire at the end of 2011 and Italy offshore is not going to happen due to ban on drilling within 8 km of country's coast. The saving grace is the 20% interest in ENI operated Italy gas project I am not sure its NAV for MOG.
 
GBP - happy to wait deal was always due to complete June so still risk it doesn't go through but apparently being held up by red tape. In mean time Uganda and Namibia news from other players has been pretty ropey but I think will accelerate going forward to meet stated Q4 drill date.

SRB - happy to buy more here with gold going up and these guys having a proven resource and excellent prospectivity in their licence areas. The next big news is due June with drilling on Curuetella? Still think it is about 4x undervalued and like with CNR at 0.4 to 0.8p (now 9p) it is just a case of waiting for the market to realise I guess. They are pretty ropey at telling their story themselves but with Brazil Gold Corp and Magellan next door and Eldorado on their shareholder list it's just a case of when not if the story gets appreciated.
 
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PPC President Petroleum - robust statement from Levine today. He isn't stepping back.

Management changes. Focusing on upping cashflow from existing ops. Not giving up on Australian licence or prospectivity. Talk of utilising and value of large historic tax losses. Still hope that they can use this as vehicle for 'transformational deals'.

Noting the intent I will now buy more. This looks like it should be back to 30-40 range in medium term (3-6 months) ? The first part of the V just looks like some sheer panic and now Management coming out all guns blazing to address the panic and reverse it, hopefully they can panic it up. :-D
 
Mentioned this at 9p two weeks back, now 14p and going vertical, have been surprised by the strength of the move but it was off the radar...

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pia786 said:
get URU on your watch lists...

I don't expect anything imminent but had communication with the IR of that company and he comes across as very smart and they are a company on the move but underappreciated by Investors ( i have small insignificant position but intend to grow large as story develops)

in short it is a £10m company with £5m net cash

Key Projects :-
Niger - Uranium exploration (existing 4m lb deposit) results of new exploration due May i think
South Africa - Nickel exploration (they claim they may have 'world class properties' doubt it but if they do they become comparable to AFE and HZM and intend to list this venture (SAN-URU) separately

Also have 20% of UrAmerica which may seek IPO at some point.

Also intend a duel listing of company (URU) on TSX.

There is an 'Investor Presentation' on the site dated April 2011 which states the following :-

Moving Forward
Results from the latest drilling and exploration programme
undertaken at In Gall and Irhazer (Niger) will be announced in
Q2/Q3 2011.
Subject to favourable market and corporate finance conditions,
UrAmerica will work towards a potential listing on the Toronto
Venture Exchange (TSX.V) of the Toronto Stock Exchange in
Q3. Given favourable technical results, supported by positive
market conditions, the URU/San nickel joint venture could be
listed by Q4, or early in 2012.


http://www.niger-uranium.com/dmdocu...df?option=com_docman&task=doc_download&gid=31


The company was previously known as Niger Uranium and was valued as highly as £40m+ I think on basis of previous managements track record but now there is new managment and as yet i am dubious as to how good they are. However 4m lb of uranium they have proved up is potentially worth $24m at going rates so as a £10m company they look to be valued at a discount to their assets.

It has lots of newsflow and listing S&V to come so I expect it to get some promotion at some point.

DYOFR.
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MOG - Have been reading the circular

The Convertible Bond and Loan Note holders took 40m shares in exchange for converting their £9m+ of face value debt. i.e. @ 6p implying a value of £2.4m they have indeed taken a 75% haircut.

Not an easy thing to do. However now the dead weight of the debt is off the company's back it allows the equity to perform. The equity price required for them to be made whole is about 24p/share.

Thus at 9p I think MOG looks interesting. The debt to equity converters will probably reduce shareholding as liquidity allows which may act as a dampener but IF Ombrina Mare is allowed to continue to development it is a 40mmboe 2P reserve and thus potentially worth $400m or about 60p per share based on $10EV/bbl valuation.

I will try to buy a bit more in the 7/8's over the next few weeks with medium term target of 20p. But no rush as the overhang and stink of this will stick for a while. I think the Italians imposed moratorium on Ombrina Mare after BP disaster in Gulf of Mexico so given drilling is recommencing in US offshore no reason why they should maintain the moratorium much longer IMO.

http://www.medoilgas.com/resources/Capital Reorganisation Announcement 21.04.2011.pdf
 
MOG

(subscription so link won't work)

MOG Announces Re-Capitalisation Plan Ahead Of Possible Strategic Shift

April 2011 | Corporate Financing Analysis

CFW View: MOG is expected to avert bankruptcy through a debt restructuring and fresh equity issuance, but the company's long-term strategic future is unclear, given lingering uncertainty over the impact of the July 2010 Italian offshore drilling ban.
UK-listed independent Mediterranean Oil and Gas (MOG) issued details of its re-capitalisation programme on April 21 2011. MOG intends to raise GBP20mn (USD32.9mn) through new shares priced at GBp6 each. The company has also reached a deal with its creditors to convert GBP9.8mn (US$16.2mn) worth of convertible bonds and loan notes into ordinary equity, raising GBP29.8mn (US$49mn) worth of total funds. The company said that a re-capitalisation was essential to ensure adequate working capital.
Breaking The MOG Jam
Through debt restructuring and a fresh equity issuance, MOG will wipe its balance sheet clean of any liabilities, but the company conceded that the par value of each existing MOG share will be effectively reduced from GBp20 to GBp1. MOG's shares on the London Stock Exchange's Alternative Investment Market (AIM) fell more than 27% in morning trading on April 26, the first trading day in London after the announcement. The independent's market capitalisation fell to around GBP4.2mn, compared with GBP5.7mn before the announcement.
Although MOG has onshore assets in Tunisia and France, its core assets are its offshore exploration licences in Italian and Maltese waters. In Italy MOG has a 100% operating stake in the Ombrina Mare project, an oil and gas field in the Italian Adriatic Sea, which has certified proven oil reserves of 12.2mn barrels (bbl) and gas reserves of 10.7bn cubic metres (bcm). MOG also has a 20% stake in the Eni-operated Guendalina gas project, with proven reserves (net to MOG) of 107.6mn cubic metres (Mcm).
Given Italy's relatively low hydrocarbons prospectivity, these were promising assets, but MOG's prospects were badly hit by the 2010 US Gulf of Mexico oil spill, which led Italy to ban offshore drilling within 8km of the country's coast and within 19km of protected marine areas. Ombrina Mare is located 7km offshore, within the proscribed limit, and the Italian decision led to a collapse in the company's share price. MOG said in August 2010 that certain exemptions to the new law were possibly applicable to Ombrina Mare, although no updates were subsequently issued to clarify whether or not the project could go ahead.
Silver Lining?
Given MOG's desire not to invest any further cash in its Tunisian licence (which expires at the end of 2011) and its Ombrina Mare difficulties, it appears that the company's prospects will be tied largely to Guendalina for the foreseeable future. As Guendalina is 47km offshore, it is unaffected by the drilling ban and first gas is expected from the project in September 2011.
In addition to unburdening itself of debt, MOG is also adding new faces to its corporate line-up. Andrew Cochran, the founder of Asia-focused explorer Salamander Energy, is to be MOG's new non-executive chairman, while two executives from UK-listed independent Aurelian Oil and Gas will serve as additional non-executive directors.
MOG's short-term strategy appears to be the monetisation of Guendalina while it decides on Ombrina Mare's future. It is unclear, however, whether MOG will choose to deploy its cash infusion towards acquisitions beyond the Mediterranean, a possibility given the wide international experience of its new chairman and directors, or develop its less-risky Maltese and French acreage.

http://www.corporatefinancingweek.c...n-plan-ahead-of-possible-strategic-shift.html
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PPC

RBS view

PRESIDENT PETROLEUM – FY10 RESULTS, STOCK LOOKS OVERSOLD

FY10 results - points to focus on 1) Exec Chairman Stephen Gutteridge has resigned to pursue other opportunities, Non-Exec Director John Hamilton (ex-FD of Imperial Energy) has been appointed interim Chairman 2) write-down of reserves on a well in the US results in end 2010 2P reserves around 1.2mmboe (with accompanying impairment charge to P&L) - we were more conservative than this (forecasting end 2010 reserves of 1.1mmboe) so no impact on our models. We continue to see upside to this number on the back of further development drilling in the US. 3) Despite non-commercial Northumberland-2 result on PEL 82 licence in Australia, management believes that result has de-risked the upside potential on the licence, with the possibility of further work on the acreage once results are fully integrated 4) cash position post Kafoury-3 and Northumberland-2 wells around US$25m (14p/share). We currently value the existing US production at around 14p/share (which is likely to be conservative as we have yet to factor in the tax losses from the Kafoury-3 well - likely to equate to a couple of pence per share at least). So that points to an existing core NAV of at least 30p. Shares trading at 20% discount to this number - disappointment on the back of the Northumberland-2 result is understandable, although it looks like the market has taken an excessively bearish view of President's future prospects (in our view). We think this is wrong give the track record of management and expect that the company will be aggressively chasing growth opportunities, some of which will hopefully come to fruition in the next couple of months. While these will have to be judged on their own merits we retain confidence in the management to make attractive acquisitions and believe the share price is oversold at current levels.
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Ukraine is probably worse than Pakistan when it comes to property rights but this makes LKI look interesting as a play on soft commodities

http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2011/04/13/china-eyes-ukraines-black-earth/

I like the EPS sensitivity in this report

http://www.landkom.net/images/File/Edison note 20110329.pdf

10% on rapeseed prices converts to 40% increase in pre-tax profits for a company supposedly on a PE of 6x

I'd expect if soft commods do start to increase then they'll probably put on 10% in a day at some point
 
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LKI Landkom has been tipped this weekend by UK-Analyst 'network' a fairly low grade bunch who tip about 20 stocks a week seemingly

Anyway will probably hold off buying more until that herd has disappeared but having looked up recent Rapeseed crop prices it looks like the current price is way above the analysts expectations by over 10% ( $640 / tonne versus $500-550 / tonne in forecasts)

Rapeseed oil is used to produce Biofuels as well as used in food production so the highh price of oil helps increase demand. Furthermore on the supply side some harvests have been affected so supply/demand balance looks great.

AGM is May 11th and I'm hoping to attend
 
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Buy Landkom International (LKI) at 5.875p

Says The AIM & PLUS Newsletter

Landkom International (LKI) was first tipped in the last issue of the AIM & PLUS Newsletter. Since then the shares have soared by over 23%! But with the company still trading on a low multiple and the prices of soft commodities likely to continue rising strongly, this agriculture business looks well placed to enjoy further hikes in its share price.

Edited by PLUS Journalist of the Year Richard Gill, the AIM & PLUS Newsletter features two brand new tips a month, regular online updates on tipped stocks as well as market analysis and news of interesting IPO activity from these two dynamic markets.

The next issue of the newsletter is out this week. To receive your copy by first class post, click here.

The Business

Listing on AIM in November 2007, Ukraine based agriculture business Landkom International hasn't exactly covered itself in glory during its time on the market. After quickly spending the £54 million raised at IPO in building up a land portfolio and buying machinery, it became clear that the firm had over extended itself, with a rationalisation programme soon being implemented. Shareholder value has been significantly destroyed along the way, a pre-tax loss of $55.75 million being posted in 2008 and a $42.1 million loss being delivered in the ten months to October 2009. However, with a newly appointed management team, which has turned the business around, we believe that Landkom now looks well positioned to move into the black.

Following its restructuring Landkom now has 74,000 hectares of land in the Ukraine, enjoying the country's so called "black earth", a rich, fertile soil which is ideal for farming. The country also has a climate which is well suited to intensive arable agriculture, with reliable rainfall, a warm growing season and crops being grown all year round. Along with the land Landkom owns a range of supporting farming machinery and equipment, including, tractors, trucks, trailers, seeding machines, grain carts and storage facilities. The five main crops which are grown are rapeseed, wheat, maize, sunflower and soybean, with these being rotated in line with good farming practice in order to lower the risk of disease and to maintain the quality of the land.

Current Trading

Results for the year to 31st October 2010 were significant in that Landkom managed to deliver the first profitable crops in its history, with gross profits before farming property plant and equipment depreciation amounting to $712,000. This was helped by direct operating costs per hectare falling by 45% on a comparable crop basis. Total revenues for the year were up by 15.4% on the ten months to October 2009 at $16.8 million but the firm remained in the red, posting an EBITDA loss of $4.4 million. Nevertheless, this was a much better result than the previous period's loss of $21.1 million, thus reflecting the significant improvements which the new management team have put in place.

Operations wise, 36,500 hectares were planted during the year, delivering over 92,000 tonnes of grain and seed. However, harvests were affected by heavy rainfall in the spring and summer, resulting in 14% of crops being lost. Maize was hit particularly badly, a third of the crops planted being lost. Nevertheless, margins improved on all crops during the year due to lower expenses and higher prices being received. The company claims that it delivered average yields between 11% - 48% above the average across Ukraine for the year.

Since the period end Landkom has, in order to support working capital needs, organised banking facilities worth $9 million. This will support the 2011 harvest and will enable the firm to plant 18,800 hectares of land prepared for spring planting. It should also reduce the need for yet another equity fundraising. Significantly, the company added in its results that it believes a profit is achievable in the current financial year should crop prices remain buoyant.

Risk Warning: The value of investments can go down as well as up. Past performance is no guarantee of future success. Investing in equities can lose you part or all of your capital. The tips given here are of necessity, general. They cannot relate to the individual circumstances of investors. Anyone considering following the recommendations contained here should seek independent advice. Investments in smaller company shares, by their nature, can be relatively illiquid and thus hard to trade. And that makes such investments more of a high risk than larger company shares.

Opportunities and Threats

Driven by factors such as an increasing world population, demand for more "Westernised diets" from emerging economies, rising demand for biofuels and poor harvests in some parts of the world, the prices of some soft commodities are currently at their highest levels for many years. Wheat is currently trading at its highest levels since spiking in 2008, with other crops such as rapeseed, soyabeans and maize also trading at their highest levels for three years. Reflecting this, Landkom was recently able to sell forward 5,000 tonnes of rapeseed at $600 per tonne. This was at a 75% premium to 2010 prices and 120% up on prices seen at the bottom of the market in 2009. With the underlying drivers of the above trends remaining in place we believe the outlook for soft commodities continues to be positive.

As well as the above drivers Landkom should also benefit from a much higher total area of planted land in 2011. In its recent results the company commented that winter crop planting was up by 35% at 28,856 hectares.

In terms of risks, due to the nature of the business bad weather conditions will always be a major threat to Landkom. However, following the improvement in the running of the business and the expected increase in planted land, any repeat of last year's rains should be mitigated to some extent. In addition, while the company has not suffered significantly yet, the increasing oil price will inevitably squeeze margins before too long.

Evaluation

We believe that Landkom has now put the past behind it and looks well placed to break into profit in the current financial year. The market is also looking for the firm to make a maiden profit this year, with broker Liberum pencilling in pretax profits of 7.7 million pounds. In 2012 however, pressures on direct costs and expectations of lower crop prices mean that the consensus is that, while still being profitable, the firm will not have as good a year. The price earnings multiple for 2011, if targets are met, is just 3.2 times, rising to 6.5 times in 2012. We note that the shares also trade at a discount to net assets of 6p per share. Considering the significant progress which has been demonstrated by the new management team and the potential to make significant profits from now on we believe that the current price provides an attractive entry point into a compelling recovery play. BUY
 
Stock futures all up on bin laden news. Could have a monster move up on this? Stocks have lagged commodities for a while this could be a catalyst for move back to stocks.
 
Here we go for all those in RRL.... Early June spud in Georgia. I have a feeling everything is now priced in.

Probably worth looking at Red Emperor the farm in partner as its Mcap is quite low. RMP is due for listing on AIM this month. I would sell before the spud though, just in case its a duster. Although, success with siesmics + helium anomaly test is around 80% allegedly.
 
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FOGL bought more today as a sleeper would be nice to see it flatline around this 70p level for a few months which is quite likely given summer doldrums and drilling mobilisation probably a Q3/Q4 event and then the chart looks like setting a decent triple bottom base into drilling late 2011/early 2012

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pia - I have been waiting for it to get around the placement price... :) maybe test the low 60s before the upward move? We have a long wait before any mobilisation... so probably best to monitor from the outside.

If BOR find oil then this will rocket along with it.
 
FOGL up to a 3% position in my portfolio now, hope to get to 5% prior to rig mobilisation which I'm guessing will be just a few months away (Aug/Sept)? with drilling by BOR due in Q4 (Oct-Dec)

Yes could easily have a spike down to 50-60's that is why have kept some powder dry

But BPC went really quickly from 4p to 20p when Merrills and Goldmans got behind it so I'm happy to have some now as never know when the upcoming campaign will get appreciated by market. With potential success case of 9000p+ I'd expect it to trade at least 450p prior to/during drill of Loligo so anything in the 60's seems a great buy for the risk aware
 
On another note pia. I happen to stumble upon the realisation that one of the Bios you have invested in is working with people I know :). If I hear anything, will pass on via the mods.
 
OTC got over-ramped last year but then failed to deliver on hyped up expectations so i think it probably still suffers a lot of stale bulls who will look to offload on any news, this may restrict upside in short term, although it seems to have some support at 1.25 ish level

i have no interest as it looks to be about fully valued to me for a 1m oz gold deposit in Europe

i prefer explorers with big 'open ended'/blue sky growth projects and preferably ones with single project potential of 2m+ oz which thus may become of interest to majors
 
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Namak_Halaal said:
Clearly you do not know where to search and what to search for.

Allow me:

URU


Volume is low.

NVTChart_Image.aspx



Value of trades.

NVTChart_Image.aspx


Since URU was recommended the value of trades has increased - suprise suprise.

Recent trades on URU:

Time/Date Price Volume Trade Value Type

10-14-35 15-Apr-2011 10.00 25,000 2,500.00 Ordinary trade
09-41-07 15-Apr-2011 9.57 1,307 125.08 Ordinary trade
09-32-44 15-Apr-2011 9.57 5,453 521.85 Ordinary trade
08-52-40 15-Apr-2011 10.00 11,821 1,182.10 Ordinary trade
08-41-55 15-Apr-2011 9.55 17,595 1,680.32 Ordinary trade
08-16-23 15-Apr-2011 10.00 30,000 3,000.00 Ordinary trade
08-02-09 15-Apr-2011 10.00 250,000 25,000.00
Ordinary Trade - delayed publication request

-----------------------------------------------------------

In brief - an AIM SCAM.

BTW PIA786, I rather be a nutjob than ignorant. :)

PS: You should ask the univeristy where you obtained your economic degree for a refund. (Use the money to buy Gold and Silver).
Click to expand...

In the last few weeks since I first mentioned URU it is up almost 100%.

Over the same time frame Silver is probably unchanged if not down
 
URU - FWIW

They are due to have results from Nickel drilling in May so might be some news behind the recent volume and rise. However I'll be looking to sell a bit as 18-20p looks resistance short term.

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URU Interesting news today which no-one seems to have picked up on. Stock is down but I think that is probably just a short term knee jerk reaction to a strong rise. The story has if anything just got a whole lot more interesting with todays RNS.

Midland Resources Holdings has gone to 8%.


These guys look 'strategically' interesting if they are the same outfit...

The Midland story is one of exceptional innovation, dynamism and growth. Founded in 1994 to pursue steel-trading opportunities sourced in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and Eastern European countries, Midland evolved by pursuing a successful strategy of vertical integration. Building on its role as a global trader of steel products, Midland began supplying raw materials to steel producers in the CIS, often bartering the raw materials for finished steel. When Russia and Ukraine began privatizing steel mills, Midland became a steel producer. The Group’s involvement in steel trading and manufacturing then led to investments in raw materials suppliers, scrap metal collectors and processors, and warehousing, as well as a growing presence in the shipping industry. Eventually, the Group diversified into other major holdings, including food and agriculture, construction, transportation, manufacturing and electricity distribution.

As a reflection of the Group’s commitment to performance, Midland acquired the struggling Jordan Grand Prix Formula 1 team (renamed Midland F1 in 2005). After stabilizing the team with considerable investment and placing it securely back on the path to success, the Group exited motorsport by selling the operation to luxury sports car manufacturer Spyker Cars NV. Having successfully utilized its involvement in F1 to promote increased awareness of the Midland brand globally, the company is well positioned to continue delivering a higher level of performance by adding investments that can be integrated with existing operations.




The group's co-founders are billionaires Alexander Shnaider (chairman), a Russian-born, Canadian-national, and Ukrainian-born Eduard Shifrin.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Midland_Group
 
URU has been claiming that it has some 'world class' nickel resources in Southern Africa. This has yet to be proved by drilling results.

Would make them very attractive to anyone with steel interests if they did prove resources up.
 
pia i was wondering if youve ever come across or done any research on fortune oil (FTO), its not aim, its ftse small cap focusing on gas in china.

i gt some (its now proportionaly more than a quarter of my portfolio) a year and a bit ago on solid fundamentals, it has a few diverse profit making ventures, including jet fuel, gas infastructure, etc, plus they have been looking to develop a coal bed methane source in central china (with the blessing of the govt), with sales starting around july 2011 i think.

They have recently ventured out into taking stakes in iron mines, which i was a bit worried about, but im very confident in the management.

They also announced their first divi payment last week.

it was a dog for quite some time, but has recently shot up with some good results, and some analyst coverage.

imo its a real gem of a small cap, very solid profits, diverse income streams with a potential for huge upside if the cbm really fulfils potential, and with a disciplined conservative management.

Just wanted to see what u thought of it.
 
supersix said:
SRB seems to be dropping more everyday
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Thats good (sorry pia).... better entry price for the those watching on the sidelines like me :)

Look at the volume.... very low.

PIA - when you expecting next tranche of news?
 
Eagle_Eye said:
Thats good (sorry pia).... better entry price for the those watching on the sidelines like me :)

Look at the volume.... very low.

PIA - when you expecting next tranche of news?
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what entry price you looking at?
 
ElRaja said:
pia i was wondering if youve ever come across or done any research on fortune oil (FTO), its not aim, its ftse small cap focusing on gas in china.

i gt some (its now proportionaly more than a quarter of my portfolio) a year and a bit ago on solid fundamentals, it has a few diverse profit making ventures, including jet fuel, gas infastructure, etc, plus they have been looking to develop a coal bed methane source in central china (with the blessing of the govt), with sales starting around july 2011 i think.

They have recently ventured out into taking stakes in iron mines, which i was a bit worried about, but im very confident in the management.

They also announced their first divi payment last week.

it was a dog for quite some time, but has recently shot up with some good results, and some analyst coverage.

imo its a real gem of a small cap, very solid profits, diverse income streams with a potential for huge upside if the cbm really fulfils potential, and with a disciplined conservative management.

Just wanted to see what u thought of it.
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Have looked at it off and on and basically found it not be to high risk enough for my taste although it has strong partnerships in china and in some interesting resources (CBM/Iron Ore). you are right to be dubious of iron ore diversification.
 
SRB have a position but looking to buy more so getting some at discount to NAV and discount to what recent 'strategic investors' paid is fine by me.

Next major news due in June as they drill the prospective Curuetela (sp?) zone

Recent 'technical' scoping study by Eldorado at neighbouring Tocantizinho suggests it is marginally economic as a stand alone project which is great news for Serabi IMO
 
For all those that are invested in RRL... below is a very frank email exchange between a shareholder and Peter Landau (Executive Director) yesterday.

Question - Whilst appreciating some dilution was necessary to enable the completion
of the Trinidad deal i was very perturbed at the excessive discount that
appeared to be given in the placing. The markets reaction with the share
price plummeting since this point also seems to back up the view.

The Trinidad opportunity was offered to us in such a way that we had to
complete a raising very quickly to ensure the 100% option - when placement
was agreed it was at a 15 % discount to vwap (pretty standard in the
circumstances) - the stock ran during the 2-4 days when we were completing
the placement hence why the perception of a greater discount - can't argue
your point as to where the share price is as it's to be expected unless
major news was released - my main point on thus is we have picked up a
cracking asset for circa 60m - it's already valued at 150m and we think its
closer to 300m (with 500m additional upside over the next 3 years) - not to
mention the nature of the asset and it's low risk compared to puntland and
Georgia (to a lesser extent) - you look at % dilution on the share capital
compared with the % appreciation on the range value proposition/ asset
valuation and the deal stacks up any day - can always understand frustration
in the short term but in our view we have cemented Range's future and left
it fully insured so to speak against higher risk exploration - having just
come back from a review of the operations in Trinidad I am more confident
than ever on the impact Trinidad will have on our Range's value in the
short, medium and long term.

Question - Whilst i'm aware the markets in general have dropped Range have been
particularly hammered a sign that the market deemed the placing price too
low.

Too many other factors at play to make that single assessment - look at the
first week of trading after announcement

Question - Further compounding this we appear to be in yet another drawdown period,
surely this could of waited a little while to give the share price chance to
stabilize after the placing?

We are categorically not in a drawdown period


Question - Especially as we where over subscribed to the tune of 5mill anyway which
the company has deemed to take up, causing further dilution.

Using the word dilution is in my mind a bit harsh given relative small
percentages at play

Question - Georgia is yet again delayed i'm well aware things go wrong machinery can
break etc etc, but why no communication from the board to advise investors
of the delays prior to a date after we should of had the well spudded?

Market has been advised as and when we get the info on a confirmed basis -
if investors don't want to wait an extra month given the significance of the
Georgia well don't really have too much sympathy (just as the share price
has dropped it can come back just quickly as we have seen in the past ) -
material would be if we weren't going to drill the well or delay by 4 +
months - we are full steam ahead and see big potential with the first well


Question - Also on Georgia why no CPR giving detailed COS figures as would be normal
prior to a drill of this magnitude for any company.

Disagree on this - with the first proper hydrocarbon well in Georgia on our
blocks based on 2d seismic the cos will never be high hence why we got the
helium survey done - in my experience we would now have a range of between
8% and 90% - which makes publishing a number reasonably hard unless you want
to get in the merits of usual low% percentages from risk averse technical
groups (justified on the basis of very early stage nature of exploration on
our blocks) or study the success of the helium surveys with all the Russian
majors in siberia - shareholders have the size of the first target, the
results of the seismic and the results of the helium over that target - all
material info is out there

Question - On initial RNS's concerning Georgia, Range where very bullish on the Gas
reserves and the ready made local market. Once again we now seem to be
getting a wall of silence on this item, will it be in the CPR if it ever
comes out in full?

Gas is not material to the georgia play at this point in time - what wall of
silence - just haven't pushed it given the focus on oil with the first well
- will finalize soon

Question - But most disturbing of all if reports are true, is the give away of 10% of
our share of Strait UK at what can only be described as bargain basement
prices to RMP. This very much looks like looking after mates at the expense
of Range shareholders.

Will take issue with you on this point in a massive way - have a look at the
time we made the deal - our share price and our cash position (world away
from where we are today) - speak to anyone on the farm in terms for a block
with no 3d seismic - 2 for 1 and it is spot on - you are penalizing us for
promoting range well and we hadn't completed the helium survey at this stage
- retrospect is a wonderful tool to use to make a point - just need to look
at it in context

Question - Likewise we seem to handing out shares for fun to Taghmen Ventures for
fetching in partners for Puntland offshore, something that i take is not
ours to fetch partners into as there has been no RNS to say Range have any
sort of option on the offshore blocks as yet?


Please - your first few points were worthy of serious discussion - have a
look at Range's position 3 years ago when the deal was made and have a look
at the value any potential offshore deal would be for range - we have been
trying to get a seismic boat to quote (on something bordering on commercial)
on the offshore in pirate infested waters for 3 years - what is the point of
finalizing a psa with the government and spending more money on something
that may or may not offer value for range in 5 years time - we have
demonstrated what we can do in puntland - legal agreements do not drive
puntland - relationships and delivery of activity do - we haven't pursued
offshore because we don't think it offers a genuine value proposition for
range given we couldn't get a partner or seismic operation in - have a look
at what happened in somaliland with their offshore seismic bid round - would
I prefer to spend 15m on getting to 4000 bopd in Trinidad or contracting a
Chinese seismic crew (we self insure their boat and provide security) to get
a small seismic survey that would be 3 years away from drilling if it found
anything - I'll let you answer that one
 
pia786 said:
Have looked at it off and on and basically found it not be to high risk enough for my taste although it has strong partnerships in china and in some interesting resources (CBM/Iron Ore). you are right to be dubious of iron ore diversification.
Click to expand...

thx for your insight pia, the lack of risk is what attracted me, lols.

Safe investing bro.
 
I do prefer to take on risk and stare it in face and then grapple and wrestle the risk to the ground
 
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