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Buying shares?

Gold breaking out to new highs. The technical set up this time looks like a fantastic launchpad for a potentially hyperbolic move ... or it could just retrace back to 1400

gold1a.jpg


mar282011_1.gif


In the 1975-1980 Gold bubble some gold exploration stocks went up not 5x not 10x but 50x and 100x

e.g.

Lion Mines 7c to $380 (>500x)
Bankeno $1.25 to $430 (>300x)
Wharf Resources 40c to $560 (>100x)

http://goldstocksdaily.com/2010/07/12/the-start-of-the-gold-bubble/
 
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Toony™® said:
Possibly from today more likely tomorrow, the prospectus will be released with the OO share price being announced for the share issue...which is likely to be taken up by the 5 Key investors.. likely to be 40 - 50p - so they will only be ones snapping them up to strengthen their hold in the company... hence why the current share price (29-30p) is being surpressed...by one of them selling for the past 2 weeks...

interesting to see what happens - plan to sell half my investment if it hits 40p this week - thats 4p old money - before share consolidation!
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u should get your 40p today m8 ;)
 
pia786 said:
Gold breaking out to new highs. The technical set up this time looks like a fantastic launchpad for a potentially hyperbolic move ... or it could just retrace back to 1400

gold1a.jpg


mar282011_1.gif


In the 1975-1980 Gold bubble some gold exploration stocks went up not 5x not 10x but 50x and 100x

e.g.

Lion Mines 7c to $380 (>500x)
Bankeno $1.25 to $430 (>300x)
Wharf Resources 40c to $560 (>100x)

http://goldstocksdaily.com/2010/07/12/the-start-of-the-gold-bubble/
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Thanks for the post and the link to the article. I havent really looked at any Gold exploration stocks just a small investment in orogen. Might take more of an interest now....could make big gains :p
 
pia786 said:
wessex is run by ex-CEO of HAWK David Bramhill

as well as having lost me and others significant amounts of money the guy is also one of the ugliest,fattest and most looking like a slimy toad individuals i have ever met

i shan't be touching WSX with a bargepole, however Global Petroleum GBP do share the Juan de Novo licence offshore Madagascar with WSX
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Not satisfied with floating WSX on AIM, within days he is going to float another oil and gas exploration company Bluebird Energy........
 
dblock said:
Why do you think it's a good time to get into Sxx.. share price has dropped 50% since the end of last year.
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The stock was over-bought based on unrealistic expectations from pi's, hence the spike to 22p. Many expected production in 2011, when in reality SXX will do incredibly well to commence production by Q4 2012.

Expectations were also based on North Dakota being the primary focus for SXX, when in fact the company seems to now be looking at York Potash (UK) as its first-to-production target.

There is massive newsflow in the pipeline now, with ND follow-up drills and MOU expected in this quarter. And thats just for starters.

Hence why it is a good time to top-up IMO.
 
I don't think any boat has been missed on SRB

Eldorado a $10bn Canadian gold miner announced yesterday they own 29% of Serabi now. Eldorado's first investment was at 30p and they have now invested at 35p. The stock is currently around 37p which values the company at about £24m

They now have cash of about $7m so fully funded for a year or two of exploration

Furthermore at the last accounting date net assets stood at $50m with much of that being the very tangible asset of a mine and related plant and infrastructure (an airstrip) in an area which is becoming of increasing interest. Thus exploration upside is in for free IMO.

One of the up and coming stocks in Canada is a neighbour of Serabi Brazil Gold Corp (TSX:BGC). BGC is run by Ian Stalker and Jim Mellon who turned a $100k investment in UraMin into an eventual $2.5bn trade sale. BGC is valued at $140m in Canada. Eldorado previously bought Brazauro another neighbour of Serabi for $120m. Another neighbour Magellan (TSX:MNM) is valued at about $120m also. Serabi looks vastly underpriced to me.

I think we are at the ground floor on Serabi and have been buying more this week to put into mine and the wife's ISA. (Basically entire allowance for this tax year allocated to SRB).

One further thing Serabi just joined the Canadian TSX exchange this week so as yet brokers and investors have not got their heads around how undervalued SRB is compared with its peers (SRB $40m vs BGC and MNM $120-140m). However as part of the listing in Canada the former Management of TVX Gold have joined the Board of SRB. TVX was sold into what is quite a major gold producer Kinross so I think given the fact they have Eldorado as investors, TVX management on the Board and peers such as BGC and MNM the story will grow and escalate from here. I expect a multiple of the current price within a year.

V.Happy to be buying whilst it's undiscovered at 40p and less. The chart suggests that eventually when 40p resistance is conclusively broken it could rocket higher.

Serabi will be presenting at next weeks Minesite conference.

p.php
 
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Cheers mate, will look to sell some of my holdings to get in today (hopefully)...
 
pia - Its drifting back to its comfort zone of mid 30s. Do you have a target in mind for this share in the short term (6-9 months)?
 
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Well it should be worth 100-120p right now I.e. on a par with BGC and MNM and I expect 200p+ if exploration results are very good so that is a 9-12 month target

It has current resource of 0.6m oz which on $120/oz industry average valuation is worth 70-80p? then add the mine infrastructure so limited downside

and have target of 1.5m+ oz worth $180m so thats about 180p a share

Chart sort of suggests 100-200p as well
 
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Well I've convinced myself watch out for a trade this afternoon ending 786 ;-)
 
Last years ISA allowance was split between GBP and FCR.
This years is SRB.

SRB i can guess at the upside.

GBP i have no idea frankly but £30m or whatever it is with £15m cash seems too low compared with TRP £100m and CHAR £400m (EDIT : last time i checked it was £300-400m and now I see CHAR is actually valued at £500m !... yes I should buy more GBP !!!)
 
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pia786 said:
Last years ISA allowance was split between GBP and FCR.
This years is SRB.

SRB i can guess at the upside.

GBP i have no idea frankly but £30m or whatever it is with £15m cash seems too low compared with TRP £100m and CHAR £400m (EDIT : last time i checked it was £300-400m and now I see CHAR is actually valued at £500m !... yes I should buy more GBP !!!)
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Someone came and bumped up GBP 10%... just as I was thinking of buying in. I am looking for around 17-18 ish entry point. GBP has to be a long term play... will be a good year or 2 or so before they even commit to a drill but that has not stopped CHAR marching on and on.
 
it is very hard to predict but i'd say right now GBP offers the best risk-reward it won't be drilling itself so can't have a duster but it can benefit from the halo effect of a drill campaign that TRP and CHAR undertake, it is almost a free rider off the back of those two (and their much bigger partners)

great position to be in
 
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1302156420.php

By Jeff Berwick, The Dollar Vigilante

The following is an excerpt from the March Issue of The Dollar Vigilante (TDV).

Mainstream media, the majority of the public and value investors all believe that the precious metals are in a bubble. But that is because they do not understand the foundations underpinning a move into hard assets.

In this regard there are two camps:

1. The camp who believes that we live in a grand new world where governments can centrally plan economies better than the free market itself and where acceptance of government-sponsored, unbacked fiat paper monies is just a normal, unquestioned part of life.

2. The camp who sees central banks as being artificial and dangerous and who are quite surprised that this era of unbacked fiat currencies has lasted this long (nearly 40 years since the “Nixon Shock” on August 15, 1971)

Those in Camp #1 will never buy precious metals until it is already too late and the fiat currencies have all collapsed.

Those in Camp #2 will never sell their precious metals until they see an indication that the unpayable debts and deficits of the majority of western nations have reached a resolution – either by default (bankruptcy of the nations) or by hyperinflation (bankruptcy of the currency).
 
BHP Billiton
Rio Tinto
Vale

Iron Ore Producers are the way to go imho...
 
Have mentioned TPJ here before

TPJ has JV's with 3 of the biggest gold miners in the World.

TPJ is valued at £20m compared with another AIM-listed PNG gold explorer SOLG Solomon Gold valued at £80m.

Newmont have JV's in PNG with both SOLG and TPJ.

However Newmont are only bidding for one of TPJ and SOLG. TPJ

Newmont had their Analyst/Investor day yesterday and only one of the JV's in PNG made it into their Investor Presentation.. the one with TPJ.

TPJ is a £20m company which could move the dial for a $20 BILLION dollar company.
 
supersix said:
u should get your 40p today m8 ;)
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There is a deliberate attempt to surpress the share price(...although shorters are leaving the scene so may see an upward trend from next week!)... So the OO shares are bought up by the keyshare holders and not by potential investors.

whatever happens share price should be hovering aroud the 40p mark by end of the month(when the premium OO shares are availble to buy).
 
I have 90-95% of my portfolio in gold, coal and oil stocks

I would like to put 1-2% in bios but dont understand them

Anyone in the field able to provide a quick and dirty summary of SAR,VAL,PYC,SUMM,MEDU?
 
Eldorado are building up in the area. They bought Brazauro Serabi's neighbour for $120m in 2010. They are about to complete a feasibility study on that 2m oz resource in near future. But 2m oz is pretty small fry to them as they are a $10bn company. I'd imagine a $10bn company wants an asset worth at least $1bn? to get it's teeth stuck into and maybe a resource of 4m+ ?.

Serabi already have mining infrastructure in the area (plant and airstrip) so Eldorado may simply be after that. Thus last year they bought Serabi shares at 30p and now in the last couple of weeks have bought a load more at 35p giving them total holding of 29%. That will allow them to block anyone else trying to acquire Serabi whilst being in pole position to acquire the whole of Serabi IF Serabi's exploration turns up anything interesting. Serabi are aiming for 1.5m+. Early drill results look decent to me and the campaign is in full swing so I expect results/newsflow over coming months and then Serabi either gets re-rated to reflect those results or it get taken out by Eldorado IMO

Serabi currently valued at $40m when in reality given it has net assets of $50m and its peers in the vicinity are valued at $120-140m it should be trading at a multiple of its current share price.
 
pia786 said:
I have 90-95% of my portfolio in gold, coal and oil stocks

I would like to put 1-2% in bios but dont understand them

Anyone in the field able to provide a quick and dirty summary of SAR,VAL,PYC,SUMM,MEDU?
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I am heavily in SAR and less so in PYC - both related in sense that The software modelling technology is provided by PYC - so if SAR goes up, PYC will too - SAR, PYC are into drug discovery - PYC though short term more likely to make more money due the technology can be licensed to other drug companies and used for varous diseases not just cancers etc.

SAR have 5-6 pipelines of research going on. Some further than others..

potential of this company is 5 to 10 x - multbagging... depending on what route it takes unless its taken up the biggies.

VAL in self diagnostic kits...have product and finance for research on their other lines.

RENE looks promising too. stem cell research in disabled stroke patients. they have a drug which has gone clinical..first round of medicines have been successful... 12-15 months for trial to complete- multi bagger potential.

ABH deal with manufacturing of stem cell products..linked with RENE.
As well as being part from the same stable as SAR and PYC.

Not in others.
 
probably some conspiracy theorist b.s. like the March 19th Supermoon rubbish or Japanese nuclear incident 'China crisis' which was meant to kill us all in our beds etc etc

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...ies-in-a-big-way/story-e6frg9ex-1226036864796

EXTRAORDINARY is the only way you can describe what is happening in commodities.
And -- we argue -- there is only one explanation: investors are increasingly concerned about the explosion of debt and money-printing, and are intent on grabbing any hard assets going.

When you read that the US government has $US75 trillion in unfunded social security and medical liabilities (with its Medicare system paying out three times in benefits what it collects), that interest rates in the US and elsewhere are negative after inflation, and there is every prospect of a third round of quantitative easing, then you can see why money is flowing into metals.

You can talk about industrial demand for metals until you are blue in the face, but that misses the point. What is going on is a fear-driven rush to hard assets.

Friday's action was astonishing. Tin rose $US500 a tonne in London to close at $US33,050/tonne. Copper got within $US4 a tonne of smashing back through the $US9900 level. Nickel was up 3 per cent on the day -- and that's a metal meant to be facing surpluses.

Gold put on $US15 an ounce to close at $US1476. The talk is that it will go through $US1500/oz this week. Silver was up 7 per cent on the week to $US40.61/oz.
 
I am continuing to buy gold equities they give the best of both worlds.

If economies are in trouble the only answer seems to be to print money thus devaluing fiat paper currency and the concomitant to that is that precious real assets which are scarce go up in value.

If people are worried by geopolitical events again the flight to safety which used to be the dollar or euro is now flight to gold.

I prefer gold stocks because as well as being a play on the gold price, they give you geared exposure to the upside and the large gold miners are cash rich from mining gold but are under pressure to replenish depleting reserves so might pay big premiums for juniors with big or fast growing gold reserves.

Also gold explorers can come out with positive news on discoveries or increasing/upgrading reserves which can boost their share prices even if gold price is flat.

I am in CNR, SRB, TPJ, ORE, SHE, MWA to name a few and expect positive news from all of them.
 
Eagle_Eye said:
D day for what?
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US Debt ceiling expires.

Two probable outcomes:

1 - Debt ceiling is raised (to avoid US default) meaning $ tanks, Gold & Silver bullion rocket into orbit. US debt rating and markets will plummet.

2 - Debt ceiling does not change - US interest rates will sky rocket killing any chance of an economic recovery - markets will tank.

Either way $ is toast. Protect yourself and own real money that has served humanity for over 5000 years - Gold and Silver Bullion.
 
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Namak_Halaal said:
US Debt ceiling expires.

Two probable outcomes:

1 - Debt ceiling is raised (to avoid US default) meaning $ tanks, Gold & Silver bullion rocket into orbit. US debt rating and markets will plummet.

2 - Debt ceiling does not change - US interest rates will sky rocket killing any chance of an economic recovery - markets will tank.

Either way $ is toast. Protect yourself and own real money that has served humanity for over 5000 years - Gold and Silver Bullion.
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Did buy silver etf last year... should have kept it.

They will raise the debt ceiling... Geithner has already recommended that.
 
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Eagle_Eye said:
Did buy silver etf last year... should have kept it.
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There's still plenty of time, JPM/GS have closed their short positions on Silver. Silver heading north of $100/oz with Gold heading to $5000/oz in 2012.

The currency wars have only just begun.
 
guys what a fantastic thread!

would you belive I have just been looking up buying shares for the last few hours and then I come across this.

Im a newbie at this and if you guys can just give me some advice to start with?
Im going to join FxPro for my trading account? is that ok? or is there better?

Im starting of investing £500-1000 is that enough?

any little help much appreciated!!!
 
be very mindful of the small print

pay particular attention to wealth warnings such as 'you may lose more than your initial investment'

maybe best to start on a 'practice' portfolio
 
waquas_uk said:
guys what a fantastic thread!

would you belive I have just been looking up buying shares for the last few hours and then I come across this.

Im a newbie at this and if you guys can just give me some advice to start with?
Im going to join FxPro for my trading account? is that ok? or is there better?

Im starting of investing £500-1000 is that enough?

any little help much appreciated!!!
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Read the first few pages of the thread. I was pretty much in the same boat as you and posters like jaspa answered my questions. Im sure you will have the same questions I had so take a look there!!

Money- I guess there is no real answer to how much is enough. Depends on how much you have and how much you can invest safely. No point investing your whole life savings to see them go down the drain is there?
 
just been reading the first few pages!

Jaspa seems like he knows alot about this and all your information has helped me alot.
 
waquas_uk said:
guys what a fantastic thread!

would you belive I have just been looking up buying shares for the last few hours and then I come across this.

Im a newbie at this and if you guys can just give me some advice to start with?
Im going to join FxPro for my trading account? is that ok? or is there better?

Im starting of investing £500-1000 is that enough?

any little help much appreciated!!!
Click to expand...

As a newbie, I would advise you against Forex trading as only a very few people make an actual living from it and most infact end up losing all their investment because emotions almost always take over when the market goes against you. Rest assured it will go against you as no one gets it right all the time. You have to be very disciplined and invest lot of time into it.

My advice to whenever someone asks me about shares or investing is almost always... make sure you invest what you can afford to lose. If you are going to invest into a company, make sure you do some research.

Pia and me post Tom Bulford's penny shares newsletter every month (first Friday), you can take a look at the past ones in earlier posts and get a kind of flavour you need to look for before you invest. You need not invest in his tips but its a good guide to what kind of research you need to dig out.

And ofcourse contributions on this thread are quite valuable too.
 
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waquas_uk said:
guys what a fantastic thread!

would you belive I have just been looking up buying shares for the last few hours and then I come across this.

Im a newbie at this and if you guys can just give me some advice to start with?
Im going to join FxPro for my trading account? is that ok? or is there better?

Im starting of investing £500-1000 is that enough?

any little help much appreciated!!!
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Hey dude.

Here's what I posted on another trading forum:

Why do I believe systems based on technical analysis are destined to fail? Simply because there are no axioms in TA. By this I mean no two (or more) technical indicators result in the same outcome in market movement every single time. If there were ever a case of axiom trading then TA traders would be raking it in; it’ll be akin to finding a new law in physics or chemistry, where you’d know the outcome 100% of the time, but it’s not. Given the fact that TA trading is at best based indicators used to form educated guesses, it is more than likely any system based on TA must have its parameters changed through time – hardly a definition of a system.

The best systems are ones which are governed by constants, but since nothing is constant in the markets every system will have to change at some point. Here lies my point; the only constant (or system) is the trader himself – his discipline and his emotions. If you can keep the two at a constant then you are more likely to be successful in trading instead of wasting your time searching for the holy grail.
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I prefer FX markets as it's a true 24 hour market and is the best market for technical trading (albiet not 100% accurate), but as a trader you will find your own preference, meaning what works for me may not work for you, hence why you should practise on demo accounts.

My advice - the only winners are those who focus and master a couple of markets (FX and Metals for me) and lock profits at the end of the day, walk away, and come back in the morning.

I would suggest Gekko Markets (www.ggmarkets.com). They offer low minimums (10p/pip) and of course, a demo account!

Hope this helps.
 
Just some perspective from someone who has worked in the Industry

Equities - a lot of top Investment Managers I have worked with will not trumpet their use of TA but they do use it mainly to time entry/exit to trades and as an addendum to FA. It is ultimately just another tool in the toolbox.

FX - I have no idea how FX markets work and I studied Economics at University! A couple of my friends from University hold positions at major City banks where they are termed 'Chief Currency Strategist' or some such and personally I can't understand anything they ever talk about and frankly wouldn't want to. I steer well clear. In such a 'market' you are probably better off discounting the so-called 'FA' and relying on 'TA' but you do need a particularly well-honed arrogance and deep pockets to think you are not gonna be one of the 80-90% of people who lose 'playing' FX markets.
 
pia786 said:
you do need a particularly well-honed arrogance and deep pockets to think you are not gonna be one of the 80-90% of people who lose 'playing' FX markets.
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:91:

Too true. You would actually be better served betting on the outcome of a tossed coin than playing the FX market.
 
Originally Posted by pia786
you do need a particularly well-honed arrogance and deep pockets to think you are not gonna be one of the 80-90% of people who lose 'playing' FX markets.
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jaspa888 said:
:91:

Too true. You would actually be better served betting on the outcome of a tossed coin than playing the FX market.
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Complete utter nonsense I'm afraid.

If you really think FX is a matter of a coin toss, then buying shares and profiting from your 'investment' is a 1 in 2 chance too, you either end up in profit, or in loss; the same odds as a coin toss.

You do not need deep pockets, just an understanding of the mechanics that drive the FX market.

From the sounds of it you also need balls, because yes, the swings on FX are jaw breaking, but that's precisly where the profit is.
 
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To anyone who is interested in FX.

Liquidity is key in a market. FX is the largest market in the world with a daily turnover of around $1TRILLION which is about 30 times larger than the combined volume of ALL US equity markets. FX trading begins on Sunday @ 21:00 from Sydney, Tokyo, London, and then New York and ends on Friday @ 23:00.

What does this mean? Well, it means the FX markets includes 4 major market opens that offer the IDENTICAL volatility and liquidity. FX is also the most technical market, meaning FX responds well to technical analysis.

Now here's the kicker, using Pair & Boxed trading, you can open two positions on the same pair but in the opposite direction, by doing so the net balance is zero unless a major trend breaks out. (The breakout level is determined by your stop). If my stop is 50 pips, and the break out in either direction is say 150, I am guaranteed a profit of 100 pips. (And believe me when I say this, a 200+ pip move on the FX market is not uncommon at all).

But do you know what the real beauty is with FX? Hedging your life on it. For example, I was in France last week, the Euro rate meant my trip would cost me around £2000. I simply shorted the GBP/EUR. If the GBP turned strong, my trip would cost me less, if the GBP turned weak, I would recoup the difference on my FX trade. That's not all, you can use FX to hedge against commodities too.

Shares are a ponzi scheme in my opinion, FX is the one true market.
 
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DeadlyVenom said:
Namak_Halal does it not consume a lot of your time?
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When I first started trading about 7 years ago, it did for sure. But like with anything, I have to devote time if I want to study a subject. Now, I simply set my weekly trades on Friday evening, my positions are set with Stops and Limits so there's no need for me stare at charts, trends, news, etc.

You will find if you check the news etc on a minute by minute basis, your mindset will change accordingly and you will lose out big time.

You have to remember, that Greed and Fear ultimately drive the markets. Keep it simple, short, and sweet. Meaning it's better to profit say £100 a day as opposed to looking for that killer £10000+ profit per trade.
 
Nope. I tried but my eyes glazed over after the first sentence.

You go your way i'll go mine. Maybe start by setting up a thread called "Get poor quick,trade FX"
 
pia786 said:
Nope. I tried but my eyes glazed over after the first sentence.

You go your way i'll go mine. Maybe start by setting up a thread called "Get poor quick,trade FX"
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LOL! Errr, you what? No need to get all defensive mate, I get it, people fear what they do not understand. The guy just wanted info on trading FX.

I tell you what though, you stick with your funny money paper Gold and penny paper shares, I'll stick with the real deal - Gold and Silver Bullion.

BTW, I did start a thread on FX, it was deleted for some reason, but I can tell from the daily 'tips' you post that you epitomise everything there is on equities and 'penny' shares. While you speculate on that 'killer' 10 point move on a penny share, I profit on average a move of 50 points on an FX pair every morning at 6:00 GMT. Up or down - doesn't matter.

One last thing PIA786, after reading your 'tips', my golden piece of advice to you - it's easier to profit on the way down than on the way up. Do you know why? (I bet a Kilo of Gold you don't). It's becasue it's easier to induce fear than hope, but hey, I guess you never learnt this at university while studying economics.

:)
 
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Namak_Halaal said:
To anyone who is interested in FX.

Liquidity is key in a market. FX is the largest market in the world with a daily turnover of around $1TRILLION which is about 30 times larger than the combined volume of ALL US equity markets. FX trading begins on Sunday @ 21:00 from Sydney, Tokyo, London, and then New York and ends on Friday @ 23:00.

What does this mean? Well, it means the FX markets includes 4 major market opens that offer the IDENTICAL volatility and liquidity. FX is also the most technical market, meaning FX responds well to technical analysis.

Now here's the kicker, using Pair & Boxed trading, you can open two positions on the same pair but in the opposite direction, by doing so the net balance is zero unless a major trend breaks out. (The breakout level is determined by your stop). If my stop is 50 pips, and the break out in either direction is say 150, I am guaranteed a profit of 100 pips. (And believe me when I say this, a 200+ pip move on the FX market is not uncommon at all).

But do you know what the real beauty is with FX? Hedging your life on it. For example, I was in France last week, the Euro rate meant my trip would cost me around £2000. I simply shorted the GBP/EUR. If the GBP turned strong, my trip would cost me less, if the GBP turned weak, I would recoup the difference on my FX trade. That's not all, you can use FX to hedge against commodities too.

Shares are a ponzi scheme in my opinion, FX is the one true market.
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How do you determine whats the breakout?
 
Eagle_Eye said:
How do you determine whats the breakout?
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You don't. That's the beauty, you do not need to guess whether the market will move up or down, the box trade will follow the trend for you. All you need to do is setup up the 'width' of the box trade.

For example, the trends in FX are massive and sustained for a long period of time. Take the GBP/USD. At the beginning of the year the GBP/USD was around 1.56, now it's sitting at 1.63. That's a move of 700 pips. If you setup a box trade with a width of 200 pips (i.e stop of 200). One of your trades (the short position) will stop out (loss), but the other (long trade) will gain 500 pips, meaning a 500 pip profit. Conversly, if the GBP/USD dropped from 1.56 to 1.49, my long position would stop out but my short position would be in profit of 500 pips. Becasue of the liquidity in the FX markets, changing the trend on an FX pair is like turning an Oil Tanker.

You can also setup box trades on a smaller scale of 25 to 50 pips if you trade on a daily basis. (This is how I setup my daily 6:00 trades)
 
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^^ sounds too good to be true...quite hard to make a loss from the way you are explaining.
 
Namak_Halaal said:
You don't. That's the beauty, you do not need to guess whether the market will move up or down, the box trade will follow the trend for you. All you need to do is setup up the 'width' of the box trade.

For example, the trends in FX are massive and sustained for a long period of time. Take the GBP/USD. At the beginning of the year the GBP/USD was around 1.56, now it's sitting at 1.63. That's a move of 700 pips. If you setup a box trade with a width of 200 pips (i.e stop of 200). One of your trades (the short position) will stop out (loss), but the other (long trade) will gain 500 pips, meaning a 500 pip profit. Conversly, if the GBP/USD dropped from 1.56 to 1.49, my long position would stop out but my short position would be in profit of 500 pips. Becasue of the liquidity in the FX markets, changing the trend on an FX pair is like turning an Oil Tanker.

You can also setup box trades on a smaller scale of 25 to 50 pips if you trade on a daily basis. (This is how I setup my daily 6:00 trades)
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sounds really interested but just dont understand :20: it so i think i will stick to shares...
 
DeadlyVenom said:
^^ sounds too good to be true...quite hard to make a loss from the way you are explaining.
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I will attempt to post some images but here's a run-down of the trade I just setup 2 mins ago.

GBP/USD is 16350 at the moment.

I have setup a long position (up) with a 100 point stop (16250).
I have setup a short position (down) with a 100 point stop (16450).
The width of my box trade is 100 points.

This means when GBP/USD trades between 16250 and 16450, my net result is zero. However, when GBP/USD falls below 16250, or moves above 16450 (swings on FX markets are massive), the result is profit when the price of GBP/USD exceeds the width of my 'box'.

The bonus is that if the GBP/USD drops, Bullion prices in GBP move up.
 
DeadlyVenom said:
^^ sounds too good to be true...quite hard to make a loss from the way you are explaining.
Click to expand...

Well you can lose money when the market swings one way i.e 200 pips up, your short (profiting from from market going down) will get taken out. Your net gain at that point will be 0. Then if the market reverses and starts to go down, you will be losing from then on. The process is the same the other way. Hence, I asked the question of how do you determine what is a good breakout. Because it is at that point, when you release one of your positions that your guessing (Technical Analysis) that the market will continue to go in your favour and make you money.

Thats is my simple understanding of it.


NH, do you then also set a limit of when you going to take profit as in when it hits pre-determined number of pips... you sell and bank profits. Also, percentage wise, whats your success rate.
 
Simple, but lethal example. The blue area defines the box limits, or the zero range. As soon as there's a break out in either direction (box limits breached) the trade is in profit. (in this case down)

attachment.php
 
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Eagle_Eye said:
NH, do you then also set a limit of when you going to take profit as in when it hits pre-determined number of pips... you sell and bank profits. Also, percentage wise, whats your success rate.
Click to expand...

Yes I set limits on profits but only on the way up, i.e, when GBP is stonger (thus Bullion is cheaper). I then use the profits to buy more Bullion at a cheaper price. I never set a limit on the way down becasue the lower the GBP/USD is, the higher the price of Bullion, so in effect, I hedge my Bullion againt FX using box trading.

I've never calculated my success rate in terms of per trade, but this year alone I have turned 1 Kilo of Gold into 1.89 Kilos of Gold, so a return of 89% by means of FX 'box' hedging.

I have also set short position triggers on Spot Gold and Silver, Gold shorts kicks in at 1450, Silver short kicks in at 40. If the shorts are triggered but move in the opposite direction, the loss is countered by the rise in Bullion prices.
 
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Eagle_Eye said:
Well you can lose money when the market swings one way i.e 200 pips up, your short (profiting from from market going down) will get taken out. Your net gain at that point will be 0. Then if the market reverses and starts to go down, you will be losing from then on. The process is the same the other way. Hence, I asked the question of how do you determine what is a good breakout. Because it is at that point, when you release one of your positions that your guessing (Technical Analysis) that the market will continue to go in your favour and make you money.

Thats is my simple understanding of it.
Click to expand...

Yup, that's pretty much it. A reversal at the edge of the box will result in a loss, but if you hold Bullion then it'll counter it.

The recommended breakout on FX is 500, becasue a 500 PIP move in either direction is considered to be a solid trend.
 
Namak_Halaal said:
Yup, that's pretty much it. A reversal at the edge of the box will result in a loss, but if you hold Bullion then it'll counter it.

The recommended breakout on FX is 500, becasue a 500 PIP move in either direction is considered to be a solid trend.
Click to expand...

Thanks NH.

A quick summary on how to trade/hold bullion if you do not mind.
 
Eagle_Eye said:
Thanks NH.

A quick summary on how to trade/hold bullion if you do not mind.
Click to expand...

1 - You can only use cash to buy Bullion, no credit cards etc.
2 - You buy from a member of the LMBA (London Bullion Market Association)
3 - Call up for a price or order online.
4 - Transfer funds and your bullion is shipped to you, OR, take cash and buy it over the counter.
5 - When you want to sell, call up the dealer you bought it from (or any other dealer), and if the price is acceptable, you post the Bullion or sell it over the counter.
6 - Better to buy larger bars in excess of 250g or more as the premiums are low (about 4%)

notes:

- http://www.lbma.org.uk
- http://www.taxfreegold.co.uk
- There's no VAT on Gold
- Kruggers, Sovereigns, and Britannias Gold coins are exempt from CGT (Queens head on coin thus considered legal tender)

If you want detailed info then I'll post it tomorrow.
 
Namak_Halaal said:
1 - You can only use cash to buy Bullion, no credit cards etc.
2 - You buy from a member of the LMBA (London Bullion Market Association)
3 - Call up for a price or order online.
4 - Transfer funds and your bullion is shipped to you, OR, take cash and buy it over the counter.
5 - When you want to sell, call up the dealer you bought it from (or any other dealer), and if the price is acceptable, you post the Bullion or sell it over the counter.
6 - Better to buy larger bars in excess of 250g or more as the premiums are low (about 4%)

notes:

- http://www.lbma.org.uk
- http://www.taxfreegold.co.uk
- There's no VAT on Gold
- Kruggers, Sovereigns, and Britannias Gold coins are exempt from CGT (Queens head on coin thus considered legal tender)

If you want detailed info then I'll post it tomorrow.
Click to expand...

Once again Thanks. Detailed info will be good. I presume you must store this bullion somewhere too... specialised places or safety deposit boxes like harrods? :) Like few of our civil servants and politicians...
 
Spent some time reading a bit more about Forex Trading and it just seems a bit too fiddly and complex for me also seems like the type of thing that would take too much time out my day and will probably end up in disaster for me :))

Thanks for the info Namak_Halal. I look forward to more of your posts! :)
 
Whilst still not understanding Bios they can if they have successful products actually be quite useful.

Has anyone looked at VAL ?

I have previously dismissed it because it's 'selfcheck' stuff seemed a bit low grade and consumerist but they also have something called GeneICE which has received European grant funding to the tune of £1m which makes one think it might have decent purpose if the research leads anywhere ?

The long term chart also looks very interesting and they sorted out funding at about the current share price recently so should be ok for a couple of years.

http://www.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=25012272
 
pia786 said:
Whilst still not understanding Bios they can if they have successful products actually be quite useful.

Has anyone looked at VAL ?

I have previously dismissed it because it's 'selfcheck' stuff seemed a bit low grade and consumerist but they also have something called GeneICE which has received European grant funding to the tune of £1m which makes one think it might have decent purpose if the research leads anywhere ?

The long term chart also looks very interesting and they sorted out funding at about the current share price recently so should be ok for a couple of years.

http://www.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=25012272
Click to expand...

I did have a look at it a while back and then they did a massive dilution not so long ago on the last big spike in SP.... I fear that they will continue to do so on every notable spike.

The GeneICE... is gene silencing method to block expression of a particular "faulty" gene forexample which is candidate for ovarian cancer. This line of research has attracted lot of interest but the crucial bit of the research and money spent will goto is what are the long term effects of carrying a silenced "faulty" gene as well as how will the immune system cope with this. In the last 10 years, we have moved away from the idea that ... one gene produces one protein and thats it. Now we know that they interact and work tandem with each other in multitude of processes.... So if you knock one out, what will be the effect on the expression of the rest etc..

And so its precisely the type of research that will burn cash for years to come and my fear of periodic dilutions to meet these cash requirements. They will first work on human and mouse cell lines and then proceed to mouse models and then maybe humans.... All of this will require lot more cash than the £1m EU grant.

Its a medium to long term investment.
 
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pia - I know you buy on the PLUS market.. any recommendation for any online brokers?

You looked at USOP (US Oil and Gas)?
 
I use TDWATERHOUSE have dabbled with the new jpjshare.com

Problem with TDW they charge 40quid to trade PLUS jpj only charge a fiver

USOP sounds too good to be true and too illiquid to get in or exit so leaving it well alone. If it proves concept might buy.
 
Eagle_Eye said:
Once again Thanks. Detailed info will be good. I presume you must store this bullion somewhere too... specialised places or safety deposit boxes like harrods? :) Like few of our civil servants and politicians...
Click to expand...

I store the Bullion at home, becasue if I cannot touch it, I do not own it. There's no point in me owning Bullion then paying someone else to look after it.

Gold is a one of the most dense metals known in the universe, a kilo can fit in your palm or your pocket, so hiding it at home is a piece of cake. Silver takes up more volume, but again it's dead easy to conceal.

Let me know what detailed info you are after as I could talk about Gold and Silver till I'm blue! :)
 
NH do all trading sites let you use your technique? I was messing about with a demo account and it would just cancel out the order.
 
DeadlyVenom said:
NH do all trading sites let you use your technique? I was messing about with a demo account and it would just cancel out the order.
Click to expand...

Oops, I forgot to mention, you will need to sign up with two platforms. (BTW, Box trading isn't my personal technique but a FX trader favourite!)

I use IGindex and GGmarkets. Go long on one platform and short on the other. Also bear in mind, you can apply the same technique on shares too! (The problem with buying shares using a broker platform is you cannot profit on the way down, but with Spreadbetting trading platforms you can! - plus all profit is TAX-FREE! :) )

www.igindex.co.uk
www.ggmarkets.com
 
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Thanks NH. I'll play about with the practice accounts for a while and see if I get anywhere.
 
DeadlyVenom said:
Thanks NH. I'll play about with the practice accounts for a while and see if I get anywhere.
Click to expand...

IG doesn't offer a practice account. CMC markets does though.

www.cmcmarkets.co.uk

(Once you gain confidence sign up to IG, they invented Spreadbetting and their range and platform is the lick. BTW, IG stands for 'Investors Gold', as Gold was the first instrument availabe to trade on in the late 70s! - useless but interesting fact)..
 
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