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Buying shares?

TRP having a decent run based on interesting piece on stockopaedia or RHPS about to re-tip ?
 
Bulford has however set buy limit for TRP at 6p. I would thus marginally prefer GBP now.
 
GMA - RNS today one of the bleakest I've read for a while though fits with my thesis that there is a game being played by the Private Equity shareholders / CEO to get the debt holders to take a haircut before they release any good news.
 
GON - First mentioned this in the 2's here a few weeks back. Now it is 4.

Galleon has been a disaster. Down from 26p to 2p over three years. However it is ditching the old businesses and management which caused and presided over that slide. New Management/Board own 32% of the shares in issue.

The new business is in Chinese online gaming (only started in Sept 2010) in particular they own a portal wowan365.com which is involved with MMORPGs (massively multiplayer online role playing games). These games are potentially very lucrative and the business models of successful game sites excellent.

http://www.fool.com/investing/gener...e-best-business-model-youve-never-heard-.aspx

There are a few quoted companies in this sector already listed with big valuations (Price/Sales range from 5 to 10x ) and having achieved huge growth in limited time period e.g. Changyou (CYOU), Giant Interactive (GA)

Internet and in particular Chinese Internet dot.com IPO's are huge right now causing people to talk of dotcom bubble 2.0 e.g. Ren Ren (RENN) and LinkedIn (LNKD) with 'the market' likely to be receptive to such businesses until the IPO's of Facebook and Twitter.

GON in February talked about their portal earning revenue of £200k per month and aimed to double by year end.
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201102040700106769A

GON in June announced their portal was already achieving revenue of £450k per month and they were doubling investment in the site.
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201106030700127963H

On current run rate the portal is doing about £5m revenue per annum. If they achieve their goals they could be doing annual run rate of £10m per annum by year end. Valuations for such businesses can be 5-10x revenue. Thus a reasonable success case target Market Cap for GON could be as much as £50-100m !

At 4p GON is currently valued at £7-8m so a valuation of £50m would imply a share price target of about 25-30p.

Looking forward a year and exercising one's imagination, if growth continues and these companies continue to be valued so highly the company could be doing sales of £20m annual run rate and a 5-10x price/sales valuation would imply potential for valuation of £100-200m i.e. share price potential of 50-100p

High risk but potentially very high reward so only requires small amount of exposure.

I'm awaiting a major technical signal to invest more. In particular breaking the 200 day MA. It is close and once cleared could spark a massive CNR-esque re-rating. A Fundamental development which is anticipated at some point and could lead to such a massive re-rating is if the Chinese management of GON decide to IPO their Chinese online gaming ops on the Hong Kong/Chinese stockmarket.
 
It is very close to that 200 day MA @ 4.07

p.php
 
GON

http://www.smallcapnetwork.com/Chin...CTY-GAME-SOHU/s/article/view/p/mid/1/id/1865/

Online gaming in China is considered to be the fastest growing segment of the Chinese Internet market. In fact and of the half a billion Chinese Internet users, its estimated that two thirds of all Chinese Internet users are involved in online gaming, namely massively multiplayer online role-playing games (MMORPGs) and massively multiplayer online games (MMOs or MMOGs). This makes the Chinese online gaming market is the largest in the world and accounts for at least one-thirds of all global online gaming revenues....
 
Good RNS from LKI today.

Forward sell another 20,000 tonnes of Rapeseed @ $600/MT

Recall from this post

http://www.pakpassion.net/ppforum/showpost.php?p=3844893&postcount=1043

That the analysts forecasts were for sales at about $500/MT

So the company today tell us they have now forward sold 70% of their estimated Rapeseed harvest @ $600/MT

i.e. 25,000 MT @ about $100/MT above analysts forecasts so that should be $2.5m straight to the bottom line for a company only expected to do EBIT of $7-9m for this year

that is a 25-33% 'beat' based on just 70% of estimated production for one of their crops

this chart looks to be playing out nicely

p.php
 
LKI - Technical breakout today but still overhead resistance in form of 200 day MA

As suggested in post 1053 above the big driver/catalyst should be August Harvest results.

Weather is crucial this year as apparently Wheat crops in US elsewhere not done well so Ukraine if weather holds out could be supplying a scarce commodity into a supply crunch... i.e. potential for supernormal profits?

p.php
 
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FOGL AGM today. One of the longest but most interesting I've been to for a while. Investor Presentation given and explained a lot about BHP exit and potential going forward despite previous duster at Toroa. I intend to buy more prior to October when rig mobilisation starts. (64 day trip from Greenland to Falklands).
And then look to sell some out during the drilling campaign (Late November to Summer 2012) to de-risk.

The valuation is totally out of sync with the prospects.
They have been approached by other companies looking to farm-in.
These prospects are huge.
Will knock DES/RKH/ARG prospects into a cocked hat. (Whatever than means)

I'm talking potential 10-100 bagger so only need very small amount of exposure for it to work if it works but not hurt too much if it goes to zero.
 
Im into FOGL too, and the one that has the biggest potential in my portfolio. You cant really go wrong at theses prices IMO, especially if you derisk when the DES-esque spike takes place just prior to a drill...

pia786 - How impressive were the management team?
 
Thanks for the info PIA... I am waiting to get into fogl as well.... I'll be buying first chunk soon.

On the way home I read in the Evening standard that there is a rumour about RKH paying 50p per share for DES.... somehow I think its just a contrived rumour to get everyone piling in before DES slap everyone with a badly needed placement... The fun and games of AIM.
 
I was quite impressed with FOGL management to be honest.

The main operational guys are relatively young guys who have good experience and could just have served time in larger companies but they are devoting some of their 'peak' years to this venture.

CEO Bushell ex Paladin and was responsible for Lasmo Falklands campaign in 1990's

Exploration Director More ex Paladin and Cairn.

The shares have been impacted by several issues outside their control

their partner BHP being so big they didn't really allow FOGL to present the story or run the project in the way a more aggressive exploration company should do

Also the technical overhang created by RAB shareholding is no fault of theirs

Finally the Falklands oil story is fatigued and lacking momentum due to Desire's dusters and failure of RKH thus far to prove that Sea Lion is commercial.

In the grand scheme of things these issues are going to be sorted over time.

Ultimately I always go back to the same old graphic...

Numbers slightly out of date but in one single target FOGL are going to go after 4.7bn barrels and with current Mkt Cap of about £120m they are valued on Mkt Cap per potential barrel of about $0.05 ? and EV / Potential barrel of $0.00 !

292n289.jpg
 
Good write up of FOGL AGM by Fadilz on iii


Here are some snippets, through my lenses.


Investor Presentation from 19th April on FOGL website shares many slides with presentation given at AGM. Stuff below highlights what I remember as unique/significant.



LICENSES

Northern licences have 6 months extension, but phase II end date is unchanged, so phase II will be 6 months shorter. No penalty, but 20% relinquishment, as per licence terms.


Southern licences as shown in Annual report. Both run to 2015.



TOROA

Toroa showed 'Reasonable' Springhill sands, and 'very good quality' Cretaceous sands.


SOURCE

Source rocks have never been an issue. Oil maturity in Aptian. Bottom of Toroa was near top of oil window - about 2500m below sealevel. Source extends deeper, to Oxfordian in some parts (eg DSDP wells to SE). Gas prone at lower levels, and could affect Loligo, as well as other prospects.


All prospects have their own risk profile, but Loligo (1 in 5 to 1 in 7) has higher charge risk than Scotia, which has sands adjacent to source.



BHP

- Reason for pullout: Bushell's view is that BHP had spend $1bn on a global wildcat strategy (8 or 9 wells) without much success and took a strategic decision to cut back on frontier drills. FI was axed along with a few others, not a direct refletion of prospects. Argentina influence on mining operations in other parts of LatAm may have played a part.

- BHP did excellent work on analysis of Loligo(shallow gas, lower oil ??).

- Could come back in, but on Loligo discovery area only, and not as operator, with 40% share, and paying x times cost of well (5-10x??)



RIG

5 knots, self-propelling. 64 days from Greenland, should arrive late Nov. Has to leave before northern winter, so arrival reasonably predictable. Rig hire cost not disclosed, but total including 'Spread' costs (people, helicopters...) is > $1m per day, and rig alone > $0.5m.


DRILLING

BOR first two slots definite: Darwin(Springhill), then Stebbing(tertiary foldbelt). Bboth shown, unlabelled, in FOGL annual report map.


FOGL then follow with 2 (see slide 12-15): Loligo followed by

- Loligo good: Loligo appraisal, or Nimrod, or Vinson (less likely)

- Loligo bad: Scotia (Tullow Ghana analog, 1bbl), Hero(1bb), Hersilia. In order of likelyhood, unless source and sands both good, in which case Hersilia.


Option for 5th rig slot has lapsed (end of May) so only 4 wells confirmed.


Both companies have to have enough equipment on hand for a relief well, so 5th slot could be utilised by one of them, provided rig not booked in meantime.



Well plans in EIA, which may be published by FOGL in due course.

Loligo_____________________4000m___50 days_____$65m

Nimrod/Vinson/Inflexible______3000m___40 days_____$45-55m

Scotia/Hero________________5000m___65 days_____$80


No coring, no flow testing



FUNDING

FOGL still need money for 2nd well.


2 companies in early stage discussion, since March. will talk to others in Q3. Farm in needs to be settled before rig arrives. Still possible it could be a placing/rights issue, but farm-in most likely in current conditions ("Falklands fatigue", "oil exploration fatigue"). Farm-in likely to be mid-size company, not major.


Farm-in would be for second well (Hero/Scotia), but could also include Loligo, though 40% for BHP needs to be protected, in case of success. FOGL operator.
 
I am in the process of trying to update the numbers to arrive at something similar to the above Valuation benchmark between 5 major UK small cap oil and gas plays on prospective new 'basins/provinces'.

Chariot / Namibia
BPC / Bahamas
Cairn / Greenland
FOGL / Falklands
BOR / Falklands

Hopefully have it done this evening.
 
Here it is bit small but the numbers demonstrate the clear undervaluation of FOGL against other similar explorers.

Mispriced by a mulitple of 5-10x on EV/Potential Barrel !

The cash does however distort that picture due to de-gearing effect i'd imagine the Market Cap/Potential Barrel is probably only about 2-3x mispriced.

Another factor to bear in mind is Chance of Success. I've used standard 10% but some firms have de-risked more than others by running 3D and 2 Seismic or having already drilled the basin have some better idea about geology. Chariot claim 25% CoS on some prospects. FOGL on their main prospect Loligo reckon 14-20%.

foglcompvals.jpg
 
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Have a decent position in FOGL already will wait to see how several things pan out over summer before adding. In particular near term the deal completion on placing is June 15 ? and then admission of shares and to see how overhang resolves itself.
 
Thanks for the top posts once again PIA. I may buy some FOGL if I can free up some cash from other places.

Top stuff mate.
 
VENTURE BUSINESSES START TO BEAR FRUIT

ANGLE has been making substantial progress since its last fundraising
and, in our view, is poised to deliver on a number of fronts.
Recent demand for the Geomerics Enlighten platform is picking
up, with an exciting picture building in both Novocellus and
Parsortix, in particular. We look forward to news flow in the
coming months and maintain our BUY rating and 126p price target.

 ANGLE has been progressing its ventures business, despite having to rein in
costs and a tougher environment in its management services business. We
have been encouraged by updates on several of its venture businesses,
including Geomerics, Novocellus and Parsortix. We see calendar 2011 as a
key year for ANGLE, which could show the signs of significant delivery on
commercial deals and progress within a number of the subsidiary businesses.

 Parsortix is making significant progress on a separation device aimed at not
only isolating foetal cells in peripheral maternal blood, but also isolating
circulating tumour cells, where the identification of a tumour cell at a sensitivity
of one in 500 million cells could help detect certain tumours at an early stage.

 Novocellus is working on a pivotal study to demonstrate the ability of its
technology to identify healthy embryos for IVF (in vitro fertilisation) treatment.
The results of this trial are expected by the end of this year. After completion of
this study, Origio (ANGLE’s partner) will undertake a prospective study with a
control group. The product could launch in parallel with this study.

 Geomerics is working with a number of high-profile software developers
(Electronic Arts and CCP/Epic Games) to bring a number of games based on its
Enlighten engine to the market. One of the first titles is Battlefields 3, expected to
be released in November. A number of commentators have praised the realistic
lighting effects driven by the Geomerics Enlighten engine. There are also an
additional six titles in development, three to be released by end 2011. Nvidia is
also integrating Enlighten into its next-generation graphics chips, CUDA.

 Acolyte court case: With respect to the deferred consideration that was
payable from the sale of Acolyte Biomedica Limited (MRSA detection) to 3M
several years ago, there is a court case pending this month between a major
Acolyte shareholder and 3M. Depending on the outcome of the trial, ANGLE
could receive up to £4.7m should it also pursue a claim against 3M.

 The risks to our investment thesis relate to the failure of one or more
technologies in the various venture businesses and a decline in the revenues
derived from the management-consulting business.

 We have a BUY rating on ANGLE, with a target price of 126p, driven by a
sum-of-the-parts valuation of the constituent businesses in the Venture arm.
 
pia ,

In my post #624

The RNS basically means that PYC has a future!

Their predicted combination drug scheduling was able to reduce the tumour by 75%. Therefore making their efforts worthwhile.

What this does not mean is that they have in some way have found a magic formula. Instead, what what they can aid in is better treatment regimens for the disease and drug design. Better for the patient as it could yield better results and relief from side effects associated with the drugs.

Going into the future, this area of predicted models to determine treatment strategies for patients will be the way forward and indeed the NHS is already looking into delve into the world of personalised medicine. The technology of sequencing a human genome within a couple of hours has arrived, literally in the last month or so and roll out plans are afoot currently.

Going back to PYC, they will benefit tremendously from this technology as they will be able to get hold of lot of DNA sequences of cancer patients to better their tumour model. This puts them ahead of the game with lot of companies and groups that will increasingly get into this field. I know one prominent hospital in London which is planning to do just that with pharma money.

I have not bought any PYC yet, I will wait for the pump and dump to play out first.
Click to expand...

It was ANGLE.... they were looking into a pretty hefty investment... 1-2 million atleast.
 
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LKI couple of recent articles supportive of outlook for their crops

1. China end veg oil price freeze

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/08/china-vegoils-idUSL3E7H81JU20110608

2. UK declare Drought

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ns-face-hosepipe-bans-driest-spring-ever.html

while Germany has also seen the worst drought since it started measuring rain in 1893, the paper said. The country produces around a quarter of the EU's crop of rapeseed - and so the depleted harvest could mean lower biodiesel production.
In areas of the Netherlands, levels in rivers have fallen to a 90-year low.
Across the globe, rising temperatures and more intense droughts, floods and storms are forcing a rethink in how to grow food, from breeding hardier crop varieties and changing planting times to complete genetic overhauls of plants.
Growing populations, changing diets and insatiable demand for grains, meat and vegetables is putting pressure on global food production and prices like never before.
Soaring food prices, civil unrest and worries about weather have spurred a global race to create more productive crops that can thrive in a warmer - and more prosperous - world.
 
Food a healthy stock

INVESTOR Jim Rogers spends most of his time in Singapore these days, but when George Soros's former partner hits New York he is in big demand.

And in interviews on Thursday, he identified food as one of the places to be.

The world has a staggering agricultural problem. Not only are developing countries wanting more and better food, the world's arable land is diminishing and humans are competing with stockfeed and ethanol demand; last week corn hit a new record of $US8 a bushel.

Rogers also argues that food prices must rise to make farming profitable again, or farmers will find better paying jobs.

This also explains why fertiliser must grow in demand, and why potash and phosphate prices keep rising.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...-gains-amid-pain/story-e6frg9ex-1226073937668
 
jaspa888 said:
I am still in RRL, but it is in my ISA.

I am staying away from any new stocks at the moment until the present commodities carnage calms down. In fact, Ive even stopped looking at my portfolio on a daily basis at the moment.
Click to expand...

Yeah same here.. I've been holding for a while and not actively following my portfolio on a daily basis for the recent pass.
 
There are definite signs of recovery but the market is always quiet during the summer break. My portfolio went up 50+% in Q3/4 last year, and I expect a similar trend to continue this year.

When you consider that XEL's booked reserves represent 80% of its current SP with much more drilling to come, you know that the market is currently ignoring fundamentals.

It is in such market conditions that patience will be rewarded - as long as the fundamentals dont change in the meantime of course.
 
Yes the old adage 'Sell in May go away, come again St Ledger's day' does tend to hold true.

In fact the only time it doesn't work is the year of/after a major bear market / correction e.g. (market rallied big from March 2003 and March 2009 right through summer and i seem to recall similar in 1990's after Asian crisis and LTCM ?).

Short term looks like we are getting towards a bottom but given it is summer I'd expect it to be muted and only expect meaningful rally in stocks from late August/September.

http://amalgamator.co.uk/2011June13th.aspx
 
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Brilliant and mouthwatering write up of TPJ on Stockopeadia

A 25% undilutable interest in a project with a £20 Billion Gold Mining company like Newmont is just incredibly valuable.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

http://www.stockopedia.co.uk/conten...-opportunity-for-triple-plate-junction-57439/

When Fraser McGee took the helm of AIM quoted gold explorer Triple Plate Junction (LON:TPJ) in January this year he was faced with sorting out the focus of the company’s business following 12 months of corporate havoc. A proposed de-listing, a reconstructed board, a rebuffed takeover approach and funding issues had left the company with an uncertain future and out of touch with its joint venture partners. It was in a battered, bruised and confused state – and so were its investors.

For McGee, a lawyer by profession and most recently part of RAB Capital’s natural resources focused Special Situations Fund, the decision took some careful thinking. Despite RAB’s passive investment model, McGee was routinely accused of being a shadow director of many of the companies on his book – and he makes no apologies for it. His reputation for forthright views on small mining companies, weak management, bad governance and worse, meant he was a natural choice when Triple Plate Junction needed a new CEO.

The story of Triple Plate Junction dates back to January 2004, when City entrepreneur Ian Gowrie-Smith brought it to AIM with plans to build a gold exploration group in Vietnam with joint venture partner and industry giant Newmont Mining (NYSE:NEM). The company still holds the Vietnamese licence but Newmont are long gone from that part of the company’s business, preferring instead to take their chances in the emerging gold fields of Papua New Guinea. Meanwhile, Triple Plate Junction, sensing the PNG opportunity, also snapped up licences there and now has a series of JV projects with Barrick Gold (NYSE:ABX), Newcrest Mining (ASX:NCM) and Gold Anomaly (ASX:GOA) – as well as what looks set to emerge as a flagship project with Newmont.

Large mining groups have been active in Papua New Guinea for decades but interest in the region took off during 2010 when Harmony Gold (NYSE:HMY) and Newcrest, working together on what is known as the Wafi-Golpu project, announced a massive resource upgrade. Current estimates are that the mine contains at least 16 million ounces of gold and 4.8 million tons of copper and that could rise to 40 million ounces and 15 million tons. Harmony believes it could be the largest project of its type in South East Asia. The implications of all this for Triple Plate Junction are threefold. First, its JV partners have pushed PNG higher up the corporate agenda and have reiterated their commitments to their shared projects. Second, its highly prospective Morobe and Wamum projects with Newmont and Barrick respectively lie adjacent to Wafi-Golpu and represent exciting targets. Third, the long-awaited drilling at Morobe looks close, with a possible start date as early as this summer.

Fraser, the last 12 months have been a rollercoaster rise for Triple Plate Junction. Why did you join the company?

I used to work at RAB Capital, at the Special Situations Fund there with Philip Richards, and I saw TPJ was on our books although I didn’t know it inside out. The shareholders of TPJ, as you rightly say, had had a hell of a roller coaster ride to the point where this time 12 months ago the stock was sub a penny. In October last year I got a call from a broker who knew me, asking whether I wanted to have a look at it. The proposal was that I would join as CEO, and it wasn’t a decision I took lightly I can tell you – deciding whether I should go from the fund side to the actual operations. However, Newmont came out the blocks with an offer and there was absolutely no point in me joining to run a sale process. So I sat on the side-lines and watched Newmont walk away at 6.5p and thank goodness they did because the reason I got involved in this is that it is hugely undervalued. For example, we have an undilutable 25% interest through to production on our JV with Newmont over the entire property which has a growing number of drill targets. The company has got fantastic assets which are very much misunderstood by a large part of the market. It needed some changes in-house and it needed cash, which was raised in November and which breathed into the company the ability to re-engage properly with our joint venture partners and take active steps to progress the business.

When I came on-board, my first task was to engage with all of our joint venture partners and open up all of the lines of communication again to understand what their next steps might and should be. Bear in mind that we signed the JV agreement with Newmont some time ago. Newmont completed Phase I of their earn in two years ahead of schedule, for $6 million, and the results were so positive that they gave us notice in November that they wanted to proceed to Phase II, which was an additional $9 million for 19% to take them to 70%. Bearing in mind also, through all of this discussion, we had the Harmony/Newcrest Wafi-Golpu effect, which is quickening the interest and commitment of everybody who is operating and working or has got an interest in assets, or potential assets, in PNG.

I decided in March that it was time to get down to the projects and meet the people who were actually operating these assets on our behalf. To me it was important to get down there and meet the people. It is not just about meeting them, it is about having a relationship with them which means that you don’t have to rely on being the small, almost insignificant, JV partner and getting your monthly reports. That is not how I wanted to be involved.

Among all the other earlier problems, it looks like some of those JV relationships had been allowed to drift and that meant that everyone, including shareholders, had lost sight of what TPJ really had. Is that right?

Absolutely, it was an eye opener getting down there, looking at the actual physical terrain, the topography and understanding the difficulties and the related capital commitments that are required to find these big prizes in PNG. The relationships are very good with all of our JV partners in PNG. For instance, Bill and Patrick Gorman, a mining engineer who chairs our Advisory Board, sat with Newmont for two days during our visit. Because Bill has been involved for so long both with the business and the sites in PNG Newmont genuinely wanted his input into assisting with the designing of the intended drill programmes. So that was great to see and now we have a relationship where we can pick up the phone and discuss what is going on, which is fantastic.

Triple Plate Junction has got four projects in PNG – Morobe with Newmont, Manus Island with Newcrest, Wamum with Barrick and Crater Mountain with Gold Anomaly. Tell me about what is exciting here?

Okay, let’s be honest, a very large part of the market is focused on our JV partnership with Newmont Ventures. There are a number of factors but the most important is our proximity to Wafi-Golpu – we are adjacent. The fact that it is Newmont; the size of their pockets, their level of commitment to projects that they put into this category, not to mention the professionalism, the health and safety and the governance and all the rest of the good things that come with operating with these guys.

The thing that has been of great concern for everybody in this is the question of when Newmont would drill – is it going to be this year, next year, the year after? All I would say is that I’m hoping for this to be a very positive summer for our shareholders. I think it is fair to say that their commitment to PNG, and our project, is there. Bear in mind it is the whole project area, it’s not just Hide’s Creek, it’s not just Gumots, it is the whole district. There are two targets this year which I think, all things being equal, will hopefully be drilled.

Before I started, my big target this year was keeping this company where it is, in the hands that it is and getting the drilling started. I think we might just be there. They have already identified other targets, they are flying additional heli-mag, doing more geochem all the time. I have already mentioned this but the reason I got involved in this company is because it is undervalued and it is undervalued on this asset alone. As I mentioned earlier, we have an undilutable 25% interest through to production, not to feasibility, to production. I don’t have to put any cash in. When they go into Phase III they can dilute us from 30% to 25% but we can not be diluted any further. The details are that when I go down to 25% they obviously pay for the entire capital commitment, on which they will charge me interest at 4%, which I think is reasonable, and the split on the back when it goes into production is 90/10 until they are repaid.

Morobe isn’t the only story in PNG. What progress is now being made at your other projects?

At Manus Island, at the beginning of the year I was concerned that Newcrest would have lost some of their focus in PNG because of Wafi-Golpu. I couldn’t have been more wrong. We lost a helicopter in mid-February, with the tragic loss of the life of the pilot, just as we were about to start the heli-mag survey over the entire project site, together with surveying and mapping. On the back of that, and with the health and safety audits that have had to be conducted, we just thought it was going to drag on into the year. Again, I was wrong. The Wafi-Golpu story has just spurred them on, they appear hungrier than ever. I know they have got a reputation for wanting to get on with drilling and I am pleased to say that is the case here too. Our next announcement on this project over the summer will hopefully be that the heli-mag has been started with a view to drilling on the back of positive results soon thereafter.

Turning to Wamum, Barrick was the one for me that was just a bit uncertain because they sent me through what looked like just a care and maintenance budget for the year before our visit. Barrick buy big portfolios of assets and try and further develop them but as yet they are still searching for the prize in PNG. They have spent a lot of money and they just haven’t found, as they are all looking for here, the 5 million plus ounce projects that they are after. We even suggested that we might take a couple of targets on the land off them but that wasn’t acceptable and, I suspect in light of Wafi-Golpu, they have now decided to get back into the field to check that they haven’t missed anything. They have adjusted the budget, which now includes field work at three, potentially four targets – which we really like. So it really will depend on what they find over the summer.

Finally, at Crater Mountain we are partnered with Gold Anomaly, which is an ASX listed company with a market cap of about $50 million. They have a couple of other assets but this is the jewel in the crown for these guys and it is the nearest thing we have got to a resource. They have drilled 2,650 metres and the drilling has stopped while all the data is reviewed. I think the last announcement that they put out was the most positive, we’re hoping that that will continue. I think they’re probably going to roll up the next four holes together, just to put them in context. But they have announced that they are committed to a further 10,000 metres of drilling. We have said that we will commit for 3,000 of that provided they get a drill rig up there that does 1,000 metres-plus. Of that 3,000 metres we want 2,000 metres to be separate holes of a minimum 1,000 metres plus sundries and in and around the scouted area. They have agreed to that, there will be a rig up there mid-July. As I say, they’re extraordinarily hungry; this really is their No. 1 project. They have just raised $3.6 million and that will see them a good way, certainly to get a rig up and get this next phase done with our commitment at just under 20%.

Triple Plate Junction has held ground at Pu Sam Cap in Vietnam for several years. What are your plans for that?

When I was with RAB Capital we used to invest all over the world but we never invested in Vietnam, with the exception of a property deal, certainly never natural resources, and that property deal had its own country related issues. So I had no understanding of the natural resources sector in Vietnam or consequently the workings or otherwise. So one of the first jobs I did was to get on a plane to Vietnam and speak with the government, the IFC and Olympus (together with other natural resource investors and operators), which is the only legal gold operating company there. I wanted to look at the macro development of the economy, the nuances of operating in the commodity sector and really to understand as far as possible what the framework is. I’m a lawyer by profession, not by career; I like definitive frameworks, legislation, regulation. I like them because they provide me an understanding of the risk.

After speaking with all those people I took the view that we had a budget, we had already done some drilling there a few years ago and we had done some initial sampling. On the back of that Bill negotiated a contract for one rig. Then I thought, frankly, there was no point wasting time, we might as well accelerate the front end and see if we have got something viable before the summer. We have just finished drilling five holes with the two rigs, maximum depth was 700 metres, minimum of 110 metres, and we are waiting now on collecting all the results. By mid-July we’ll know whether we’ve got something or not and we can make a definitive decision as to how we progress. That might be with a joint venture partner but hopefully it will be of such great value that we have to do it ourselves.

The company raised £2.5m in a placing priced at 2.5p per share last November. How far will that cash take you and what are your future funding plans?

End of the calendar year, but it could be stretched further. There are no requirements to raise any money at the moment and looking forward we would not want to be too dilutive to our current shareholders if and when we decide to go back to the market.

At the moment we’re at Phase II with Newmont and we will have 30% at the end of it. We are doing well on the funds side of things because really we are only contributing to Gold Anomaly/Crater Mountain and Barrick/Wamum, but the budget a Wamum is currently small and so it is really diminutive in terms of eating into the bank account. We are in good shape and the reasons that I joined remain true.

Really for me, this has been about stages. First was tidying up what we have, including the people and the management structure. Second was getting out to the projects. Third is about getting TPJ back on the map and getting people to understand what we’ve got and the potential thereof. As I say, I’m not selling gold, I’m selling the potential for you to be involved in something which could be very significant.

Fraser, thank you very much for your time.
 
Jaspa - What you make of whats happening over at PXS? Acquiring sports drink company that made pre tax 200k profit for 8 million? Also, the FF partner DSM sells similar stuff!

Placement at 1.5 p!! Goodness me that is nearly 50% discount... PIs shafted again.

NO mention of deals for fruitflow.... maybe its not selling and they are looking elsewhere to save the company. If it wasn't for lot of locked in PIs, the SP would be in the dumps.
 
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EE

Nothing that the BoD (especially Moon) does surprises me anymore.

I knew he was upto something regarding acquisitions, but 1.5p in a rising market to buy a minnow is completely stupid.

The future transformational potential of PXS is - and always was - in FruitFlow so ultimately the huge upside is still there. I just dont understand the reasons for this acquisition - distraction? - as it loads PXS with evermore risk.

I can only think that SIS has some fantastic untapped ip...
 
and the board awarding themselves options at 2.8 right at the end of the day... completes the insult!
 
Rare Earth Metals

Have steered clear of the hype up to now as many of these stocks got bid up by retail punters chasing the next fad that they didn't have a clue about.

The rare earth market is actually quite complex and many of the projects are years off from producing.

There is also huge disconnect between the dynamics of Heavy versus Light rare earths.

So the punter favourites tend to be the low value light players with far off projects so really not worth chasing.

The only UK listed stock which fits the bill to my mind is SRX Sierra Rutile.

They issued a new very informative presentation on their company and market place.

They could benefit from several major drivers on their existing project.

Recovery of production on existing plant
Expansion of production by re-starting old plants
Market Pricing of their product improving
Improving pricing structure of their contracts from fixed/historic to current/spot pricing

In addition to all that on their central Rutile mining business they have some tailings stockpiled which they are investigating for Rare Earth content and commercial viability of processing this.

Results of study to be released later this year and given they have stuff stockpiled and ready for processing they could achieve revenue relatively quickly.

With SOME Rare Earths prices going parabolic IF they have the right Rare Earths they could make a lot of money.

Rare%20Earths%20June%2017.jpg
 
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Dysprosium was worth $US410/kg in February, $US460/kg in March, $US900/kg in April and about $US1500/kg now.

Terbium, which was $US900/kg in April, is now $US3000/kg.

Should you buy rare earths stocks? Well, we put this to an industry elder yesterday and his answer was "yes and no".

Yes, it's a sector in which the successful companies will do well, but many hopefuls will fall by the wayside.

He believes some elements, particularly cerium and lanthanum (both have had huge price rises), will fall in price when the Mount Weld mine in Western Australia, owned by Lynas Corp (LYC), and the revived Mountain Pass mine in California come into operation next year.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...-gains-amid-pain/story-e6frg9ex-1226073937668
 
Mentioned GON here before old business and management on way out new business and new management in Chinese online gaming (computer games as opposed to gambling!)

Well it's Chinese sites really are gaining traction so much so they are catching top UK-listed companies such as ASOS (ASC) and Blinkx (BLNX) in terms of "reach".

graph
 
news from TLDH

The Directors of Top Level Domain Holdings Limited (AIM: TLDH.L), the only publicly traded company focused exclusively on acquiring and operating new generic top-level domains ("gTLD"), are delighted to announce that the Board of Directors of the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers ("ICANN") approved the new gTLD program at its extraordinary meeting held in Singapore today.

Share price rose to 11.50 today before people took profits and it closed at 9.50 less than yesterdays price and with confirmation of some good news. So a good time to buy IMO some good news in the media.

http://www.thedomains.com/2011/06/20/cnn-com-forget-com-here-comes-coke/

RHPS tipped this two or three months ago with a target price of 50p.
 
I did buy some TLDH when it was mentioned a few days back as I felt the chart was looking quite good. Only issue I'd have is that to my understanding this is no short term thing which won't appeal to traders only to investors as it will take months for various committees and consultations to take place and any commercial benefit to accrue to TLDH
 
URU small but interesting sign of progress on one of their investments today. Bigger news expected on their own operations. Has held up well in the market downturn thanks to not requiring immediate funding.

VAL GeneICE update today didn't seem particularly substantive to me but AGM coming up so maybe more news to come ?
 
MST Interest picking up with some big trades this week. You may remember this stock from a few weeks back when we guessed that Tom Bulford was about to tip it in RHPS. Well Bulford was forced to pull his tip as it was clear he had been rumbled. MST due trading update of some sort in July. Wonder if there may be some positive news in that update ?

Selling these new technologies into Healthcare environment is tough but once proof of concept is delivered they can adopt in huge numbers. Apparently one hospital in the Midlands bought about 200 units so any rollout by a Health Authority or endorsement from bigger Regional/Government authority could be a huge development for MST which currently sells at annualised rate of about 1000 units.
 
Here is that hospital 'case study'... looks like it was a trial run so not sure if it converted into sales.

http://www.inov8.com/news-updates.php?nid=4

New Cross Hospital, which has 700 patient beds and treats more than 150,000 people annually, has just experienced its worst outbreak of Norovirus in eight years, with more than 300 patients and 140 staff affected. Matt Reid from the hospital’s Infection Prevention and Control Unit explained: “The AD Unit is being used alongside other infection prevention techniques in an attempt to eradicate future Norovirus outbreaks at the hospital. The AD unit came to our attention when it became a winner in the NHS Smart Solutions for HCAI Programme 2009. “We contacted Inov8 and within two weeks the 180 units were installed and in use across the hospital. For us, a key benefit of the AD unit is that it is not necessary to vacate a room during treatment so that disinfection can take place continuously without having to disturb patients and staff.“Once the three month period is completed we will assess the situation and evaluate how the AD Unit has performed through this difficult time.”The AD unit emits a constant low level stream of hydroxyl radicals that are harmless to humans but which attack bacteria and viruses. Measuring less than 41 x 20cm, the AD unit is a small device that is generally mounted in locations with the greatest potential for pathogen proliferation.
 
pia - Have you gone through the video presentation about formula a-04 drug for Multiple Sclerosis that TB is banding around this week. If yes, which company is it...

I bet the drug in question is cannabis based!
 
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It is GW Pharmaceuticals..... and the drug is Sativex and indeed cannabis based.
 
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Very very good topic!

I hold interest in stocks and other forms of investment. Reading a few pages, it seems like most members here like to invest based on fundamentals. I would advise all to combine both fundamental and technical analysis in a proportion which best suits them for the best results - don't ignore technicals.
 
GWP - bought it the the day the 'ramp' started. May be worthwhile as it is a 'defensive' so could do with more exposure personally.

GMA - toilet and kitchen sinking i reckon

SRX - motoring today, that Investor presentation well worth a read and on technicals it could go nuts above 20p and fill the gap to 80p potentially but I am starting with small initial position and will see how fundamental news plays out. Looks like a genuine potential REE play.
 
what do you guys think about RIMM stock? (Research in Motion Ltd., makers of BlackBerry)
 
RIMM I have never liked them. Too proprietary for their own good. Android et al will take over.
 
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SRX good post on iii BB

Uncontracted production

Gigi le Pew

Hi, Im new to this stock and have had a quick look through postings. A few things that I haven't seen mentioned recently (forgive me if they have been as I'm loathed to trawl through months of postings) bode well for this stock.

The first one is a big picture change: the shift to a new manufacturing process called the Cambridge process. This is set to replace the more energy intensive Kroll process. This will greatly reduce the cost of manufacture and make titanium more affordable even though raw input costs are rising.

The other thing I like about SRX is that they are moving towards uncontracted production. This should greatly increase their profit margins, especially in 2012 when they go 100% uncontracted and can take advantage of the rising prices. This should hopefully generate greater revenues, especially for reinvestment to increas eproduction further.

Lastly, I like the fact that they have identified Neodymium as a target rare earth metal. This is increasingly being used in wind power (forms part of the magnets).

G
 
EE re SRX do you have any colour on why the BoD should be distrusted ?

The Chairman is Jan Castro from Pala Investments and although I'm sure they are in it for themselves it is fair enough that a big holder has a position on the Board. Also those guys invest I understand on behalf of billionaires who understand the steel value chain so I'm happy to be investing alongside them here.

The CEO I have not come across before but it seems he has some decent connections at Government level in Sierra Leone so the CEO/Chairman look to be a decent compliment combination to me.

KMR is on a run today and it seems Rutile prices are strong so SRX is probably benefitting off the back of that today. Will help that they have been out telling the story recently.
 
I like the fact that they are out and about rattling some cages telling their story in the face of the currrent market apathy/antipathy to junior miners. Investors always complain if Management aren't telling the story aggressively enough. Institutional holders might be a bit put off by overly promotional management but this looks a genuinely good story with multiple drivers.


"16 June, 2011
Analyst and Investor Briefings

16 June 2011: Sierra Rutile Limited (“the Company”) is this afternoon commencing a series of briefings with investors and research analysts to provide an update on progress."
 
Thinking out loud makes one wonder if SRX haven't had a 'soft' approach for the company and are trying to get the share price up ?
 
LKI - should be a golden cross at some point and hopefully break out to upside , depending on harvest news in next month one hopes

big.chart
 
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SRX - breaking medium term downtrend and above 50 day MA

big.chart
 
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pia - I had a look at SRX briefly in April/May and my feeling was that although they have great prospects, the Board was not the best.... The company is rather accident prone and from what I understand they have yet to make a profit from selling all that Rutile.

Read the III board from early May.

John Bonoh Sisay - CEO

http://www.thepatrioticvanguard.com/spip.php?article4369

An excerpt:

Through utilization of coercive measures, insistence on secrecy of mining contracts and false accounting practices for example, TRG and Mr. John Bonoh Sisay were able to secure an unconscionable deal for Sierra Rutile (SRL) by having the Tejan-Kabbah government in 2004 grant his company a 10-year exception on fuel import taxes, a re-negotiation downwards of the government’s standard 3 percent royalties of turnover to 0.5 percent, in return for an equity stake in the mines. The turn over reported by TRG for periods 2006 to 2008 totals $168.57 million dollars. Absence the agreement of 2004, the country stood to gain in taxes at 3 percent the sum of approximately 6 million dollars. However, with the 0.5 percent rate subsequently agreed TRG would only pay the sum of approximately 900,000 dollars. The substantial difference clearly benefited someone at the detriment of the country and such an unconscionable agreement not only invites review by the regulatory bodies such as the ACC but glaringly renders such an agreement voidable in law.

Mr. Sisay who reportedly was rewarded with the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) position after this unconscionable deal was quoted as stating that “in effect the deal was renegotiated so that the government has an equity position in the company, with a 3 percent annual increase for 10 years, until it holds 30 percent”. The government and people of Sierra Leone according to very conservative estimates are however projected to loose more than a 100 million dollars in revenues between 2004 and 2016 as a result of the tax concessions granted to TRG.
Click to expand...

Whenever I see the words "false accounting" and "rewarded with CEO position" in the context of a third world company.... it just makes me wonder how well the company will do in the future.

As I said, on the face of it, its a company with great assets but I just have a nagging doubt whether the board can realise its potential for the shareholders.
 
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Fair enough but just seems like standard m.o. in these countries and both parties will be more equally incentivised by equity relationship. At present the Govt seem to have lost a few million in tax revenue but prospective gain from equity holding could be hundreds of millions.
 
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Eagle_Eye said:
Jaspa - Whats happened to SXX over the last few months?
Click to expand...

The drop is down to a number of reasons IMO:

- The unrealistic expectations from pi's that SXX would "become a potash powerhouse" within 12 months. The CEO (Chris Fraser) came on iii for a Q&A session last week and he reckons 4-5 years for a fully functioning mining plant would be ambitious. But if that happened, we'd be looking at £20+ - not 20p - but most pi's arent that patient.

- The perceived poor result from the Dakota drill about 3 months ago. That was when SP was at 22p. The company were coy about the results in a poorly worded RNS, and that hasnt helped investor confidence. The CEO has said since that the drill was a success, and further drills are planned, but the damage has been done.

- The shift in emphasis to the new acquisition in North Yorkshire. The CEO says that this is now the company's #1 priority as it is the project that represents the quickest success chance. But then he would say that as SXX bought it from him! The problem is that while 2 test drills have been approved, much of the acreage is in a national park so eventual planning permission for a mine could prove difficult.


Overall, I'm still happy with the investment: primarily because they have multiple projects in world class locations, and most importantly a world class management team.
 
TPJ - Was at Minesite conference today so got to hear the presentation by Fraser McGee the new CEO of TPJ. Refreshing to have such a young and dynamic CEO who is clearly very sharp running this company. Should be plenty of newsflow in coming weeks/months with comfort that Newmont are in the background so could come back at any time with a bid and even if they don't TPJ have a 25% undilutable interest in their JV which is potentially worth multi-millions and goes some way to demonstrating why Newmont a $20bn+ company have been so interested in acquiring/working with a company about one thousandth of their size.

Should also be news coming on TPJ's other non-Newmont projects. e.g. Newcrest Manus Island looks like it may be a good one albeit very early stage. Vietnam awaiting drill results. Gold Anomaly/Crater Mountain new drilling due to target the potential deep high grade porphyry.
 
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good post i've nicked from elsewhere...

'Hub,

I think it has less to do with conspiratorial "targeting" by hedge funds and more to do with the fact than the majority of us are stuck in the wrong sector at the wrong time - that is to say commodities, which is a market undergoing a considerable and possibly lengthy correction.

Commodities and particular aim commodity stocks, have had a terrific run over the past few years, making punters a little too complacent and with way too much invested in what is, after all, a risky sector. (COS with the drill at 30% is considered good in this industry!).

Such were the great gains to be made, punters got greedy, and many over leveraged their investments on what was seen by most at the time as a sure "one way bet" and a "path to riches".

The reason that 09 and 2010 were such bonanza years for small cap investors, is three fold:

1) Small cap resource shares had been sold down to completely ridiculous levels in 2008, meaning that a bounce was highly probable once it was clear that financial Armageddon had been avoided.

2)The QE program led to widespread inflation, pushing up asset prices across the board whilst at the same time depressing the dollar. Naturally, companies producing oil were highly favoured as investors sought refuge away from cash which was a depreciating asset and into hard assets that would benefit from inflation.

3) Once punters had seen how shares like XEL could jump from 40p to 400p in a matter of no time, even more hot money flowed in, creating a bubble which has now burst/is bursting in spectacular fashion.

The situation now:

Now that QE is coming to an end, the dollar is strengthening, and the dollar/commodity carry trade as described above is unwinding. Couple this with a tremendous exodus of hot money now leaving in droves (due either to fear, despair or profit taking) the uncertainty over a Greece default, China slowing down, and a soft patch in the US economy, it is no surprise that aim stocks are getting battered.

Therefore, I do not believe it is just "hedge fund mischief". There are very real, and rational reasons behind the sell off of XEL & co.

What the future holds:

I do not think it is "game over" for commodity stocks - I still think that we are in a long term bull market (mega cycle) which will continue for some time. But I also foresee a considerable commodity correction continuing at least until the end of the Summer and possibly longer, depending upon how Greece plays out (which does not look great).

The good news is, that the sell off in the small cap oil and gas market has been happening for some months now, and so a bottom may soon be found. (Most aim oilies are now 50-70% off their peaks).

Although as we saw in 08 - cheap stocks can always get cheaper so don't ever think that a share cannot possibly go any lower!

Also, the longer that oil and other commods falls, the better the chances are of a stronger economic recovery in the second half of the year, as lower oil prices feed down into the general economy, lowering overhead costs, boosting company's profits and increasing consumer spending power.

Lastly, if the DOW falls too much (I believe sub 11,000 will do the trick) the FED will step in with QE3. This is a given.

Both of the outcomes above, I believe, will in turn help the small cap market by increasing the risk-on sentiment.

Right now, however, it is a waiting game. The signs are already there, that many will not be able to stomach the volatility of the next few months and panic will get the better of them leading to some, perhaps, regrettable decisions and hefty losses.

I predict that quite a few punters who are planning on "quitting aim altogether once it improves a little" will probably not get the chance and sell at some point soon - probably at the markets nadir!

It always goes the same way, I'm afraid. One minute Joe Public thinks he is the next Warren Buffet...the next, he is wiped out.

As for me, as a contrarian, I would normally be buying in times of panic like this, but this time around, I think I have enough invested already (particularly in commodities - I was also not immune to this and have held on for longer than I should have done).

Now, rather than set my self price alerts and follow those, I am waiting now until September to see what the situation looks like then.

Needless to say, this is not a time to over leverage and/or bet the farm and it should be common sense by now, but only invest in what you can afford to lose/and you do not need for the next little while.

The winners out of this, will be the ones who do not panic and who have enough cash left over at the end to buy the bottom.

Remember, no matter how dramatic a decrease in your stock can be, if the fundamentals are still good, the share price can shoot up once the dust settles, ten times faster in next to no time, as all that good news that had been sold into over the past year, is suddenly priced in.

Good luck.
 
albeit I doubt many of the flaky stocks will ever fully recover and only those with real tangible positive results are likely to recover and go higher and even then it will take a while for confidence and sentiment to rebuild
 
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