Buying shares?

[Eagle_Eye]

Pia, thanks for forwarding a very sensible post...I am only heavy in RRL with small positions in MST and ECR.... But this is the time to have cash in the bank and ready to get in later when sentiment turns.

Perhaps we ought to get a list together of companies that have a decent chance of recovering once everything settles down.

 

[pia786]

Good idea will put my own list up at some point

 

[pia786]

Medgenics (MEDU/MEDG) have mentioned before, they presented last night at Proactive

Really amazing potential this company recent IPO on Nasdaq and the shackles from compulsory 'quiet period' due to end.

Very good presentation here ...

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk...ro_active_presentation_june_23_2011_final.pdf

Proactive article from last week :-


http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk...volution-in-personalised-medicine--29480.html

Says:

1. "rivals with competing but less effective technology are trading on much ritzier ratings."

2. "In one patient EPODURE is still working some 30 months after the Biopump was first inserted, while most of the others are enjoying relief from their symptoms six to 12 months after first receiving the implant."

3. Re INFRADURE, Medgenics "hopes to “have in the first patients by the end of 2011”"

4. Re HEMODURE "we have developed Biopumps which are producing very nice quantities of Factor VIII. The Medgenics boss believes Baxter will extend the agreement, but cannot yet say if they will proceed towards a full commercial licensing agreement. “We are hopeful they will go forward with us,” he adds."

5. "the company is talking to other potential partners as EPODURE moves towards phase IIb trials. This may alleviate the need to come to the market for more cash" which is expected to fund the company past Q1 11 after which it will consider its options. "Successfully negotiating a second partnership with a strategic partner could provide a huge catalyst for the rerating of the stock". “We are having some rather significant discussions with potential strategic partners,” he reveals, “But it is premature to say more than that.”

6. The m/cap pales in comparison with Amex-listed Prolor Biotech that has a $350m m/cap, has only just started trials and hopes to make injections last 3-5x (i.e. 3-5 weeks), whilst Medgenics is achieving 6-30 months. "We are on AIM, but we have a technology that is arguably much better, we have substantial data showing that it actually works in treating patients, and we have been collaborating with a major healthcare company"

8. "There had been recent selling pressure as warrants in the IPO "muddied the water a little and created a clear arbitrage opportunity that may have helped depress the price". In addition, the Company has only just come out of a standard “quiet period” following the AMEX listing, during which it could not actively promote the company and its stock."

9. "Hopefully, an update on the EPODURE trial in the coming month or two will report completion of the recruitment and treatment of the final patients in phase I/II trial, and will maintain the momentum."

10. By Q1 11, they are also targetting IND approval from the US FDA for the Phase IIB anaemia trials, the human INFRADURE trials an a HEMODURE update.

 

[pia786]

Rumours in FT that CHAR's Namibia partners could be BP !

If that is true I would be buying more TRP and GBP as my favoured ways to play offshore Namibia

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d0b19c4e-9d63-11e0-9a70-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz1Q8PtIzhx


"Among small caps, Chariot Oil & Gas dropped 18.8 per cent to 142½p, even though the explorer said it had found two partners, one rumoured to be BP, to help develop its prospects off the coast of Namibia.

Traders blamed the decline on a big shareholder – rumoured to be holding a 5.7 per cent stake in Chariot via an equity swap with Citigroup – deciding to sell and other investors being forced to dump stock to meet margin calls."

 

[pia786]

Going forward I am 'circling the wagons' and concentrating investments except Bio sector where I am out of my comfort zone so have to diversify

In Bios/Medical field I have small exposure to high risk potential 'game-changers' such as VAL, SUMM, MEDU, MST all should have major partnering announcements in next 6-12 months or it's probably cash call or curtains for them

In Oil I want exposure to at least one company drilling/exploring three potential major new provinces Falklands (FOGL/BOR), Namibia (CHAR,TRP,GBP) , Bahamas (BPC)

In Gold I want exposure to small explorers targetting potential big gold structures with good partners validating them in prospective areas e.g. CNR (Nicaragua gold triangle) ; Sheba (Arabian-Nubian shield) ; SRB (Tapajos Basin) ; TPJ (PNG)

In Metals I want exposure to what China wants or metals with big structural deficits coming e.g. Rutile + REE exposure with SRX and/or producers who can fund themselves with cashflow rather than have to rely on equity markets (MWA?! WTI ? SRX)

In Agriculture/Soft Commods : few choices but decent growth and recovery play LKI

In Tech : GON looks a potential interesting idea given the current very low market cap compared with some of their established Chinese gaming peers which have gone from 0 to $1bn companies in the space of a couple of years

GCM doesn't fit any rational category but I fail to see how Bangladesh can persist in the Dark Ages forever without the populace rising up against the hags who seem to hog power and deliver sweet FA.

 

[pia786]

reality check on rare earths hype

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...etter-operations/story-e6frg9ex-1226080495258

 

[jaspa888]

Going forward I am 'circling the wagons' and concentrating investments except Bio sector where I am out of my comfort zone so have to diversify

In Bios/Medical field I have small exposure to high risk potential 'game-changers' such as VAL, SUMM, MEDU, MST all should have major partnering announcements in next 6-12 months or it's probably cash call or curtains for them

In Oil I want exposure to at least one company drilling/exploring three potential major new provinces Falklands (FOGL/BOR), Namibia (CHAR,TRP,GBP) , Bahamas (BPC)

In Gold I want exposure to small explorers targetting potential big gold structures with good partners validating them in prospective areas e.g. CNR (Nicaragua gold triangle) ; Sheba (Arabian-Nubian shield) ; SRB (Tapajos Basin) ; TPJ (PNG)

In Metals I want exposure to what China wants or metals with big structural deficits coming e.g. Rutile + REE exposure with SRX and/or producers who can fund themselves with cashflow rather than have to rely on equity markets (MWA?! WTI ? SRX)

In Agriculture/Soft Commods : few choices but decent growth and recovery play LKI

In Tech : GON looks a potential interesting idea given the current very low market cap compared with some of their established Chinese gaming peers which have gone from 0 to $1bn companies in the space of a couple of years

GCM doesn't fit any rational category but I fail to see how Bangladesh can persist in the Dark Ages forever without the populace rising up against the hags who seem to hog power and deliver sweet FA.

Nice list pia. I think diversification is key in the small cap market, especially with the global uncertainty around at the moment. You just need 1-2 of them to click and become 3-20 baggers, and the rest are then free-carried. But even worst case scenario, you should break even if you have done your research and spread your risk.

As for GCM, I was a fan but speaking to a few bingo friends I am starting to believe that the GoB is nearly as corrupt as Mr Zardari (I know!!!). they have the resource, they have the need, yet the June date for the much-vaunted Coal Policy has nearly passed. I sold at 320p, looking to re-buy at some point, but this may have lower to fall if the GoB fails to meet even its basic goals.

 

[Eagle_Eye]

GCM - The worst part for me is that GoB spends money (could do with spending it elsewhere) on importing coal whilst sitting on a world class coal mine of their own!!.....

 

[pia786]

No doubt the hags in charge are nuts and there are some real corrupt and ignorant people over there.

GCM at 160p with potential on approval of 800-1600p it is 'pricing in' only 10-20% CoS which is nuts because we know the World is short high quality thermal coal and coking coal and we know Bangladesh is massively short of power and there are press reports in the press saying the Government is looking to establish a mining village near to Phulbari and 'organising propaganda' to change public opinion even though most of the public do want power and most of the experts do believe open pit mining of coal is only solution.

Also I think their stake in CZA could ultimately support the stock at this level anyway within 3 years so I see limited downside.

I sound like and am a stale bull (talking this stock up in current damaged market sentiment) but the market can stay irrational longer than many can stay solvent as proven in 2008 as this traded at 13p for quite a while when it's net assets even in the middle of the Global Financial Crisis amounted to 30p ! Value outed in the end with 300p within 18 months then and I don't rule out 5-10x over the next 18 months.

 

[jaspa888]

GCM - The worst part for me is that GoB spends money (could do with spending it elsewhere) on importing coal whilst sitting on a world class coal mine of their own!!.....

Hence the comparison with the current Govt of Pak...

 

[Toony™®]

Hey Guys,

What are your views on ECR Minerals? Thinking of buying that stock.

 

[pia786]

ECR - extremely low quality company would not trust management at all, it didn't go down from 90p to 1p for no good reason

Having said that they look as though they might have shares and warrants worth $10-20m in Copper Flats which is TSX quoted so might be worth a punt but certainly not Investment Grade.
Nothing against kids but they've got a 25 year old CFO.

 

[pia786]

LKI - some excellent news, they look like they'll have a quoted comparitor on UK market soon with upcoming listing of Continental Farmers Group

From what I can gather they have about 1/2 to 1/3 of the planted land that LKI have but are valued at listing at broadly similar valuation. That should present a very compelling argument for why LKI could double or triple in pretty short order as long as their harvest turns out ok.

http://fool.uk-wire.com/Article.aspx?id=201106231611410197J

 

[pia786]

SRX - (and KMR) continuing to power ahead on this rutile/zircon/ilmenite story

 

[pia786]

Looking at SRX and KMR charts you'd never know there was a massive correction going on in AIM mining stocks

"There is always a bull market somewhere" as Jim Cramer says.

 

[pia786]

This guy does some good pieces on explorers actually going out to visit sites and kick the tyres

Even he is down 38% from recent peak...

But main thing is the fact he is just opening his eyes to East Africa so should be positive read across for Sheba Exploration (PLUS:SHE)

Sheba's partner in one Ethiopia project Stratex got a big placing away to Anglogold yesterday which shows the big boys are seriously interested and Stratex will start drilling on their Sheba JV project Shehagne in the next few weeks.

http://www.stockhouse.com/Columnists/2011/Jun/24/All-about-junior-prospectors-on-the-cheap-heap

 

[pia786]

Run some basic numbers on LKI and CFG to illustrate the valuation discrepancy. It does look like LKI is 2-4x undervalued so that means either CFG should come down somewhat or LKI should go up somewhat or some combination of that.

I intend buying a lot more LKI Monday morning.

 

[pia786]

Played around with some numbers on SRX.

At first I thought EV/EBIT of 3x for 2012 didn't seem that interesting... however comparison with Iluka and Kenmare shows that these companies despite being 'miners' seem to be valued on multiples of their sales and based on their resource value rather than earnings multiples. I think it has something to do with the fact these are actually low cost dredging operations rather than conventional mining so the cashflow potential in a rising price environment is huge ? Anyone with more experience of these companies care to comment ?

A Kenmare Resources investor presentation :-

http://www.kenmareresources.com/inv...entations/Kenmare presentation April 2011.pdf

A Iluka investor presentation :-

http://www.iluka.com/Default.aspx?page=130&did=715

 

[Toony™®]

ECR - extremely low quality company would not trust management at all, it didn't go down from 90p to 1p for no good reason

Having said that they look as though they might have shares and warrants worth $10-20m in Copper Flats which is TSX quoted so might be worth a punt but certainly not Investment Grade.
Nothing against kids but they've got a 25 year old CFO.

It is for this very reason.

quick in and out job.

 

[pia786]

Maybe but it has been well known that ECR have this 'investment' so not sure who you can trade your 'information advantage' with. TheMac shares are quite illiquid. Furthermore ECR have a habit of diluting their shareholders.

It is great having 20m. Not so good if you have to share that 20m with 20m other people.

I have an ultra small amount of ECR just in case they do manage to promote themselves effectively in a gold bull market but I don't hold out much hope of it to be frank.

 

[pia786]

SRX

Having put together the model above for SRX it is interesting to read this recent comment on pricing from Iluka. They are not only expecting Rutile pricing of about $1300-1400/tonne in H2 2011 but have secured contracts with customers to that effect. Given the upcoming structural deficit in Rutile then $1600-2000 looks possible a few years out. It is hard to fathom how customers would accept such massive price rises but as I understand it the Rutile only makes up 10-15% of the finished good price so it isn't presumably that hard to pass on prices and/or easy to substitute other minerals.

"
Iluka Resources Limited (“Iluka”) advises that it has concluded discussions with its major high grade titanium dioxide customers in the pigment market segment and has reached agreement with those customers on rutile and synthetic rutile prices and volumes for products to be delivered in the second half of 2011.
As a result of these agreements and assuming the planned product sales mix is delivered, Iluka expects to achieve an increase in second half weighted average price for rutile1 of between 70 and 75 per cent, relative to a forecast weighted average first half 2011 price of approximately US$770/tonne"

 

[Toony™®]

Maybe but it has been well known that ECR have this 'investment' so not sure who you can trade your 'information advantage' with. TheMac shares are quite illiquid. Furthermore ECR have a habit of diluting their shareholders.

It is great having 20m. Not so good if you have to share that 20m with 20m other people.

I have an ultra small amount of ECR just in case they do manage to promote themselves effectively in a gold bull market but I don't hold out much hope of it to be frank.

I agree with the information being out there and they are partly relying on THEMAC to deliver the goods. There end of year results are out next week. i can see the share price dropping a bit and i think it will be worthwhile punt from there.

RockHopper are on the verge of releasing a RNS on their flow rates... read rumours it might be over 5000 bpod. Might get in on monday morning for a couple of days trading.

 

[pia786]

ECR - I did not know they had results due next week. Will look out for that. If they could just stop diluting us shareholders they might have a chance of delivering some value from all the assets they have.

RKH - Tempted myself for a trade. I do like RKH management and have always preferred them to DES from the start of the campaign and when I met the RKH Chairman in the days after the intial find when the shares were sub-100p still he did intimate that the field was potentially 500m bbls. I think if they can do a 'bankers burn' flow rate of 5000 bopd+ it would instill a lot of confidence in the whole Falklands story.

 

[pia786]

RKH - flow test looks good 5.5kbopd with a bankers burn of almost 10k bopd

PPC - Done a deal taken well at first blush but doesn't really hit my expectations although chart turning up nicely now

 

[pia786]

RKH not reacting brilliantly so far even though it is very good news. I suspect a bit of technical pressure and a bit of overhang from traders who knew this was coming it has been widely flagged up they would beat 4k 'low-ball' expectation put out there.

 

[Eagle_Eye]

Amazingly mute reaction to RKH news... PIA any idea why?

 

[pia786]

Attending AGM's in town today so not able to post up chart myself but the technicals is all I can offer. It was in between 50 and 200 day MA's. This news was expected so shouldn't have that much impact. It would have been taken very badly though if they'd failed to meet expectations.

 

[pia786]

Hope this illustrates, for it to turn technically RKH needs to get back above the 200 day MA

 

[pia786]

SGVP or SVGP ? Sovereign Goldmines of Africa

Attended their AGM today. Got to meet some of the chief guys behind the company which always gives one more understanding of where they are coming from and trying to get to. Chairman David Pearl, FD Nathaniel Steinberg and COO John Barry. They seem to have very prospective landholding with many majors in vicinity in geological terms anyway. The licence was not really sought by anyone else because there was lower hanging fruit for the majors in the likes of Ghana/Mali and the SVGP land is not easily accessible so got left to local artisinal miners. Also Government instability did not help. SVGP got their licences off of Government and Govt own 40% of licence so Govt probably more happy to be in with an 'equity' partner rather than go with a major that might sideline them.

Should be move to AIM from PLUS soon and also research report due out soon from Shaw? which should outline potential.

There is a 6-8km strike length so if they prove up gold throughout that it would be a potential multi-million oz mine potential.

Quite happy to continue holding my very small position.

 

[pia786]

SRB Serabi Mining to change name to Serabi Gold at some point

Attended their AGM today. Got to meet chief guys behind the company which always gives one more understanding of where they are coming from and trying to get to. Chairman was absent but CEO invited us to call him tomorrow if we wanted to follow up or get different perspective. He is ex TVX which was a decent size company and formed Kinross so quite a name in North American gold circles. CEO was very helpful and the statement given that the Palito mine and Currutela areas may join up is very positive news. Having a $10bn Canadian gold miner as 27% shareholder gives nice validation to what these guys are doing. Bear in mind Eldorado have done recent Feasibility or Scoping Study on their prospect just down the road in Brazil and it to my eye the IRR/NPV looks a bit rubbish so they need to augment that somehow otherwise their existing $150m+ investment in Brazil is looking crap. Nice backstop to have.

Got a bit more comfort from the CEO on upcoming drilling results and financing options going forward so all in all very happy with my large holding.

 

[pia786]

LKI positive sounding RNS today re Harvest

The chart is looking poised for big upside breakout

Hope the CFG float in next few days is the catalyst

 

[pia786]

GON

their chinese sites seem to be going from strength to strength and £7m GON sites seem to have much better reach than well established UK internet stories like BLNX and ASC

(however some do counter by saying a lot of the GON 'hits' are 'pop-ups' , no idea if true or not)

 

[pia786]

GON results due in next few days so might provide more information on what is a early stage business.

 

[pia786]

GMA - pretty bleak AGM today. They will run out of cash in October so they had better come up with something. Looks pretty much like Algeria is a dead duck so only hope is that someone will want to reverse a decent business with prospects into the shell but it is a shell with huge liabilities so not exactly that attractive. I have small position and see it as pretty much a write-off but will be interesting to see what Ken Crichton the CEO and his Citadel private equity pals at ASCOM Precious Metals/Sahara Gold do having invested a load at 1.25p and the shares now being 0.8p. They own 25-30% so can do what they like I guess.

 

[pia786]

Some decent updates today

GON - Interim results cash at accounting date of £2m with net cash outflow from operating activities of only £400k and similar net cash outflow from investing activities. Looks like they are shutting down the legacy non-performing divisions and concentrating on the real new growth business. Exciting potential.

TRP - confirmed through CPR that they are targetting a LOT of oil and the CoS probabilities look exceptional. I like TRP and GBP as a way to play Namibia over CHAR.

SUMM - don't understand it but they are presenting some data on pre-clinical proof of concept of their Alzheimers product at a conference ? More importantly reiterating their belief that their 'Seglin' technique/technology is a platform for new drug discovery or something ?

ECR - Mkt Cap £7m and claim to have £14m investment in Copper Flats ? Clearly some value but no one trusts the management team so don't expect any fireworks until they can prove they can sell some shares in the highly illiquid Copper Flats and some success on their Argentina gold prospects which looks like maybe Q4 if at all.

 

[pia786]

Rather shouty but a BB poster's take on the SUMM announcement

TheMysteron

WOW !

"Summit has developed novel, *POTENT* and very selective small molecule inhibitors of the OGA enzyme."

"shown to *SIGNIFICANTLY* reduce the levels of abnormal tau protein."

"the active Seglins exhibit *NO CELL TOXICITY*"

"The global disease treatment market for Alzheimer's disease is currently estimated to be worth *$8.3 BILLION*, a figure that is expected to rise with the development of disease modifying drugs."

.....AND THE BEST BIT OF ALL FOR ME:

"These results are also *SIGNIFICANT* because they further illustrate the

potential of our Seglin(TM) technology to become a *MAJOR SOURCE OF NEW

MEDICINES*, as we anticipate our platform generating potent drug leads with a

*LARGE NUMBER OF OTHER DRUG TARGETS*."



In summary, SUMM's Seglin(TM) technology has a *POTENT,VERY SELECTIVE * treatment for Alzheimer's which *SIGNIFICANTLY* reduces the levels of abnormal tau protein with *NO TOXICITY* with an estimated (and rising) Global Market of *$8.3 BILLION* for this one treatment alone.....then goes on to say Seglins is a *MAJOR SOURCE OF NEW MEDICINES GENERATING POTENT DRUG LEADS WITH A LARGE NUMBER OF OTHER DRUG TARGETS*." !

An $8.3 BILLION (and rising) market for just ONE of their potent,large number of other drug targets.

 

[pia786]

GWP - some trial starting Phase III cannabis for cancer pain relief or something

 

[mining786]

Orogen Gold - sp 0.67p at time of writing this

Orogen Gold, the share price has risen a nice +26.67% today on no news. It looks as though it is starting to build some momentum again. The buzz is that there will be news next week. I wouldn't get too excited as it will probably only be the interim results, and not the sampling/trenching results that people have been eagerly awaiting. It is a move in the right direction though, and the company is fully funded for phase 1 so it should start to get interesting in the upcoming weeks/months ahead.

 

[mining786]

The market sentiment right now is pretty lame. It is no surprise a lot of traders/investors are switching off their computer screens, and not really bothering with the market as much. However the uplift will come and as the outcome we should have a bull market high as we get closer perhaps to the end of the year 2011. This is evident and will happen you just have to look at the history and remember that the psychological thinking patterns, and behaviour of people is always going to be similar over the years. The market will turn at some point.

 

[DeadlyVenom]

Was in Orogen gold for a while sold out when it hit 1.30...might buy back in

 

[mining786]

If you can get the timing right? terrific!

 

[mining786]

If you can get the timing right? terrific!

 

[pia786]

Latest issue of RHPS out tonight.

Bulford promising two new tips and 4 re-tips of oil shares he thinks could do well.

I imagine the four oil tips will be BPC, FOGL, TRP, AUL ?

 

[Eagle_Eye]

^ Other candidates.....

RKH, BLVN and AEX

 

[jaspa888]

Range?

 

[pia786]

Yes. I'd expect him to re-tip something he has already tipped basically.

TPJ - having an awesome run today. Met the CEO at recent Minesite. 25% UNDILUTABLE interest in a major albeit early stage JV project with Newmont. Huge potential.

 

[Eagle_Eye]

Range?

He will not admit his mistake!!....

After Trinidad purchase, Range is significantly derisked.

 

[jaspa888]

He will not admit his mistake!!....

After Trinidad purchase, Range is significantly derisked.

It wont be a mistake if he tips at 15p, and it goes to 50p!

 

[Eagle_Eye]

It wont be a mistake if he tips at 15p, and it goes to 50p!

I wouldn't mind if he did.....

He told his followers to Sell at 8p in Feb.... Only for the SP to run to 23p. He has the Trinidad story to go with if he wants to save face I suppose

It would be funny if he chose Red Emperor over RRL.... highly doubtful but you never know.

 

[pia786]

RHPS July Issue is out

http://cms.moneyweek.com/shop/premium-services/rhps/rhps-152.aspx

"silkworms"

Tips are :-

SUMM - Biotech
PPIX - LED lighting

Oil explorers re-tipped FOGL, BPC, TRP , USOP

"You might think that my price targets for FALKLAND OIL & GAS, TOWER RESOURCES and
BPC are fanciful. But try these. For Falkland Oil & Gas a target of £41.43; for Tower Resources
£2.51; and for BPC £6.38.
These are the calculations not of some mega-fantasist but of the number-crunching experts at Goldman Sachs. And while they might represent a best-case scenario in which oil exploration meets with 100% success, it still emphasises the potential for explosive returns in these stocks over the next 12-18 months.
Even applying a discount for risk Goldman Sachs still sees upside for Falkland Oil & Gas to £15.52; for Tower to £1.20; and for BPC to £2.27 – if they strike the oil that they believe could exist on their licence areas.

 

[pia786]

Glad to say SUMM has been mentioned extensively here so we can pat ourselves on the back with that one ( I even went to the AGM )

Tipped with a Buy price limit of 7.5p and 12 month target of 25p !

I think it was first mentioned on this thread at 2p !

Some mouthwatering targets for FOGL, BPC and TRP as well ! Admittedly success cases but the market is simply not pricing the optionality correctly.

 

[Eagle_Eye]

Well done pia, you been mentioning SUMM for quite sometime.

I am not impressed with his other tips/retips.... looks like he has run out of decent companies.... every month there seems to be a retip and looking at the state of his portfolio, it smacks of desperation. He is becoming more and more like BMD.

 

[pia786]

To be fair he does do some serious research and he presents the stories very well. The market has not been that great this year and I think he deliberately tried to look for more conservative companies but now with excessive risk aversion evident in some stock prices he is right I think to get back onto the front foot and recommend more risky/exciting stocks and the stories at BPC, FOGL and TRP are potential multi-year stories covering potential whole new oil provinces so no wonder he is re-tipping them.

 

[pia786]

Nice write-up of another Ethiopian player for those with interest in Sheba (PLUS:SHE)

http://www.stockhouse.com/Columnists/2011/Jun/20/Ethiopian-gold-silver-junior-s-Sino-spin

 

[mining786]

Orogen Gold

Orogen Gold, I don't think that they are in any rush to release the sampling/trenching results. I think that they are delaying it for good reason. My sense is having such an accomplished, and experienced guy as Ed Slowey on the team as in terms of what he has done in his career is a merit in itself. This is a difficult challenge. If the management can set ojectives, and achieve them remains to be seen, a tough challenge lies ahead.

There are doubts, and concerns in my mind however as Ed Slowey is aged about 60, and Alan Mooney so could both be retiring soon? The company is fully funded for phase I but they will be needing more funding later? Another concern is will Orogen be able to give shareholders good value for their money? The time frame might be off putting to some as production could be far away, and will ORE be able to do it within the time frame, and period when the price of gold is still high. There are a lot of other unknowns. The opportunity is there though, not saying this is as good as CNR or any other good gold play but Condor Resources which rocketed from 0.50p levels but dare I say it we could see as a result some huge upside with this one. As I understand it the management are looking for other projects too.

It seems to be undervalued at the current share price, and it offers astounding upside potential if management can deliver. It will be a rollercoaster ride, the trouble with these small caps is the volitility, the prices fluctuates like there is no tomorrow. I don't think we will actually see any real action in the short term. I would say 18-24 months is a realistic time frame. This is only one man's opinion mine. The vast majority of people on the LSE bulletin board believe we are probably going to get some news next week, and that is most likely the reason behind the recent rise. DYOR - GLA

 

[mining786]

Orogen Gold

Why Orogen Gold could just be *the next big thing*

(a) Deli Jovan has never been properly explored and could contain far
more reserves than anticipated and be put into production on a quick
comparitive timescale.Orogenic rock formations held within Quartz are
historically the most productive geological conditions for major gold
mining operations and ALWAYS throw up suprises (normally good ones).
As found in mother lode and norseman in such places as California.

(b) Orogen have assembled a very experienced well connected board
of directors who have already stated "more aquisitions is a goal".And
from initial observations seem to be very careful in choice of
investments and shareholders funds.

(c) They have a funded programme so any resource updates or official
JORC statements will propel the shareprice.If a significant find is made
orogen could easily grow as quickly as some of its peers in sector have
done in the last 12 months.



A re-cap on the results so far released,very encouraging given the
small percent of mine and licence zone tested!


RUSMAN ADIT COLLAPSE ZONE

Sample No 1 :98.8 Au g/t
Sample No 2 :3.16 Au g/t
Sample No 3 :0.59 Au g/t
Sample No 4 :30.6 Au g/t
Sample No 5 :84.6 Au g/t

GINDUSA UNDERGROUND SAMPLING

No of Samples: Average Au (g/t)
8 0.3 – 1.0 : 9.71
5 0.4 – 0.5 :10.57
3 0.4 – 0.5 :17.15
5 0.5 – 1.0 :18.82

• Sampling by reservoir.
• Major shear zone-hosted vein system
• Rusman grab samples from u/g collapse zone average ~40g/t gold
• Ginduša u/g channel samples average between 9.7 - 18.8 g/t Au
.along vein segments up to 38m in length.


Locally high grade gold belt at Deli-Jovan with substantial depth and strike potential untested by drilling*. Favourable regulatory and taxation regime and experienced local exploration team already in place*. Compelling analogy of this orogenic lode-gold deposit with Mother Lode and Norseman*.

Project to production within 3 years*. A multiple of this potential still left in the ground/several highgrade lodes with bonanza-grade shoots*. Reef complex of some 10 km in strike-length / multi-million ounce potential*.

Strike Potential: Ginduša – multiple vein & stockwork potential.Perina Cuka – float samples to 12.3g/t Au. Seliste – 2km extension of Rusman zone – dump samples to 41g/t Au #. Latovo – separate unexplored structure with historic workings. ( # sampled from Seliste tailings dump)

DELI JOVAN INITIAL GEOLOGY / ASSAY RESULTS:

Sampling by reservoir. Major shear zone-hosted vein system. Rusman grab samples from u/g collapse zone average ~40g/t gold. Ginduša u/g channel samples average between 9.7 - 18.8 g/t Au along vein segments up to 38m in length.

OROGEN WORK PLAN:
Orogen’s exploration objective for Deli Jovan is to demonstrate the potential for a minimum 500,000 ounce gold resource, with scope for substantial additional resources. Orogen will target a maiden inferred resource of 100,000 ounces of gold which would support an initial two to three years of production at an annualised rate of 30,000 to 40,000 ounces of gold. Subsequent drilling and sampling will be aimed at further extending the resource base to support a continuing mining operation. This will be achieved through re-opening and detailed mapping and sampling of the old mine workings and diamond drilling to confirm and extend the Rusman and Ginduša deposits. There is also the potential for undiscovered “blind” lodes rich in gold. It is probable that the old miners needed an average grade of close to 30g/t gold given the crude underground mining methods and the relatively low gold recovery from the old

The most recent RNS:

Orogen Gold PLC
Exploration Update
RNS Number : 0210H
Orogen Gold PLC
23 May 2011

Orogen Gold Plc

("Orogen" or "the Company")

Exploration Update
Orogen Gold Plc (AIMRE) the AIM listed mineral exploration company, focussed on gold exploration and development in Eastern Europe, announces the advancement of its plan to reopen access to the Deli Jovan gold mines in eastern Serbia. Deli Jovan comprises two shallow underground gold mines at Rusman and Gindusa, about 6 kilometres apart along a major shear zone, that were last in production over seventy years ago.

As previously reported, permission has been granted by the Serbian Licensing Authority to open up the original shafts into the Deli Jovan mine. The Company is now pleased to announce that a landowner agreement has been completed to facilitate the planned work at the Rusman mine area; this will allow the Company begin work there. Furthermore, the Company is pleased to announce that it has purchased 39 acres of land over the Gindusa mine area. This has secured access to the site, in readiness for work to begin.

An experienced Serbian underground mining refurbishment contractor has been appointed and their preparation work will begin immediately, with work at the site to commence before the end of May 2011.

Historical drawings show mine shafts that descend approximately 100 metres, with galleries every 30 metres or so, following high grade gold veins. At this stage the condition of the shafts and galleries is unknown. Once access to the underground workings is completed, the Company plans to carry out detailed re-mapping and re-sampling to feed into a preliminary assessment of the resource potential.

Ed Slowey, CEO, commented:

"This news represents real momentum towards our company's goals. The successful accessing of these historic mines will be a significant step forward in our programme. We now have access to what we believe are prized assets with great potential .We look forward to reporting back as the work programme progresses".

If we are in a bull run then it should really be great for ORE if this happens:

Gold to Reach $5,000 Due to Supply Shortage: Report

An exhaustive report by Standard Chartered predicts that gold will more than triple to $5,000 an ounce because of a lack of supply, not just because of a surge in demand that most bullion bugs cite in their bullish calls.

"Standard Chartered recommends that clients buy shares of smaller gold miners to get the most upside from its prediction but also said clients could buy physical gold and gold exchange-traded funds"

http://www.cnbc.com/id/43396080?__source=ft&par=ft

I think this could really be *the next big thing*

http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view...old-finds-new-life-in-old-mines#ixzz1FESGIt7X

 

[mining786]

May 24, 2011
Progress Report on the Deli Jovan Gold Project in Serbia

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Vancouver, British Columbia (TSX Venture: REO) - Reservoir Capital Corp. ("Reservoir" or the "Company") is pleased to provide a progress report on work at its Deli Jovan Gold Project with partner Orogen Gold Plc (AIMRE, "Orogen"), which plans to access and sample historical underground workings at Rusman and Gindusa.

The relevant permits have now been issued by the Serbian authorities, a land access agreement for the Rusman mine area signed and the purchase of 39 acres of land covering the Gindusa mine area completed. An experienced Serbian underground mining refurbishment contractor has been appointed and their preparation work will begin immediately, with work at the site to commence before the end of May 2011.

Historical drawings show mine shafts to a depth of approximately 100 metres, with drifts developed along vein structures at intervals of approximately 30 metres elevation. At this stage the condition of the shafts and drifts is unknown. Once access to the underground workings is completed, detailed re-mapping and re-sampling is planned in order to provide additional data for the further assessment of the gold mineralization.

Work at Deli Jovan is funded by Orogen, which can earn up to a 75% interest in the project by completing $3.5 million in exploration expenditures within 42 months.

 

[mining786]

Orogen Gold, as I understand it has £1.5m in the bank, and still has the Hungarian gym buisness which they are looking to sell. The company is also looking for other project exploration and development opportunities in Europe and elsewhere.

 

[mining786]

I am really looking for something on the same level as or bigger, and better than CNR, but that being said is a lot easier said than done and so will settle with a rise similar to the likes of HER. I think ORE needs to get mentioned by proactive investors or someone in need of some mention in the press, once the broker notes and research analysis start to emerge to the surface, and the story starts to unfold then we should see a propagation of new money coming into ORE. I don't mean to flood this forum and will stop now but would really like to know what others think of this company? I am very bullish on gold. I'm looking forward to seeing what ORE have in store for us in the coming weeks/months ahead. Gold shares are very cheap. Regardless of the volatility we may see in the short term, I expect to see a sustained recovery in the performance of gold stocks relative to the physical bullion.

 

[pia786]

I doubt ORE will or can be as big as CNR either in Market Value terms or Share price performance terms.

CNR was 0.6p for a long time because it had in effect had it's El Salvador property taken away from it and there was a large stock overhang. At 0.6p with about 500m shares in Issue it had a Market Cap of only £3m. CNR was then transformed by in effect a Reverse Takeover with some very prospective Nicaragua Gold prospects being added. Management gave indication that the Nicaraguan prospects could hold 2m oz of gold. Using some pretty basic rule of thumb valuation metrics you could say if CNR prove up 2m oz of gold and with gold well north of $1000/oz then CNR should be valued at 1-10% of (2m x $1000) i.e. 1-10% of $2000m i.e. $20-200m (£13m - £130m) thus from £3m there was potential for the market value of the company to go up 4x to 40x (2.4p to 24p) indeed in the last six months it has traded up to 11p.

ORE at 0.6p has over 1bn shares in Issue and further dilution to come. It had the Serbian gold prospects reversed into it at about 0.4p. Management have given scant indication as of yet as to potential of the gold prospect they acquired although press articles suggest they are aiming initally for 0.5m oz of gold. Using same metrics as CNR that could if they are successful yield a market value of 1-10% of (0.5m x $1000/oz) = 1-10% of $50-500m or $5m-$50m or £3-30m

Thus ORE with a current Market Value of around £9m seems pretty fairly valued in that £3-30m valuation range potential compared with CNR which at 0.6p was trading a big discount to the potential value range of £13-130m.

Even if ORE do deliver on their intial exploration target the 'upside' appears to be only a trebler from here i.e. around 2p per share

The hope with ORE is that they are downplaying things at the moment and they do not have geologists on board with multi-million oz finds on their CVs just to mine a 0.5m oz mine but that has yet to be demonstrated.

 

[mining786]

I wholly agree with you about Condor Resources being a tough act to follow for any small cap. Which is why I would think more of a Herencia Resources type rise would probably be the outcome perhaps for Orogen Gold. However CNR as great as it is from 0.6p the share price propelled upwards rapidly, it was the *hot stock* at the time and I think yes it had a strong investment case with El Salvador etc but some measure of blind luck was involved and it was driven by momentum it was trading at more than its value when it went upto 11p, which is probably why it fell down to the current prices not forgetting the market corrections and calamity in Japan and other economical influences. It has been oversold and is undervalued right now, and has a lot of tremendous upside. CNR is a much better gold play than ORE. I hold shares in both

I doubt ORE will or can be as big as CNR either in Market Value terms or Share price performance terms.

CNR was 0.6p for a long time because it had in effect had it's El Salvador property taken away from it and there was a large stock overhang. At 0.6p with about 500m shares in Issue it had a Market Cap of only £3m. CNR was then transformed by in effect a Reverse Takeover with some very prospective Nicaragua Gold prospects being added. Management gave indication that the Nicaraguan prospects could hold 2m oz of gold. Using some pretty basic rule of thumb valuation metrics you could say if CNR prove up 2m oz of gold and with gold well north of $1000/oz then CNR should be valued at 1-10% of (2m x $1000) i.e. 1-10% of $2000m i.e. $20-200m (£13m - £130m) thus from £3m there was potential for the market value of the company to go up 4x to 40x (2.4p to 24p) indeed in the last six months it has traded up to 11p.

ORE at 0.6p has over 1bn shares in Issue and further dilution to come. It had the Serbian gold prospects reversed into it at about 0.4p. Management have given scant indication as of yet as to potential of the gold prospect they acquired although press articles suggest they are aiming initally for 0.5m oz of gold. Using same metrics as CNR that could if they are successful yield a market value of 1-10% of (0.5m x $1000/oz) = 1-10% of $50-500m or $5m-$50m or £3-30m

Thus ORE with a current Market Value of around £9m seems pretty fairly valued in that £3-30m valuation range potential compared with CNR which at 0.6p was trading a big discount to the potential value range of £13-130m.

Even if ORE do deliver on their intial exploration target the 'upside' appears to be only a trebler from here i.e. around 2p per share

The hope with ORE is that they are downplaying things at the moment and they do not have geologists on board with multi-million oz finds on their CVs just to mine a 0.5m oz mine but that has yet to be demonstrated.

 

[pia786]

ECR looks like a potentially interesting announcement ; potentially 400m tonnes of iron ore supposedly open ; don't trust the ECR jokers so until their is a JORC resource I won't beleive it but there could be some serious value there if they stop diluting the crap out of shareholders ever and actually prove up a project rather than just talk it up.

 

[DeadlyVenom]

Xel moving up again today.

 

[jaspa888]

Manic last three days on AIM.

Massive gains for oversold stocks (XEL - 104p to 240p; SXX - 6p to 11p). It just proves how important investor sentiment is, where smallcaps are trading at fractions of their balance sheet. Crazy, crazy times, and not one for the faint-hearted.

 

[mining786]

There's always opportunities for the smart investor. These corrections are not only healthy but part of the cycle.

 

[pia786]

GON - I emailed Tom Bulford about it. He has tipped it before under its previous Management/business model and so I don't think he will return to the 'scene of the crime' as it were but he described my research on it as 'interesting' and promised to take another look if he has time, which is nice.

 

[pia786]

SRX - nice AGM statement

"The Company also continues to be extremely encouraged by the current price trends within the titanium feedstock industry and has recently concluded negotiations for a small amount of previously uncontracted Q4 2011 industrial grade rutile production at a 100% premium to prices achieved earlier this year."

 

[pia786]

 

[pia786]

MEDU / MEDG

MEDGENICS EXTENDS COLLABORATION WITH BAXTER ON DEVELOPMENT OF FACTOR VIII BIOPUMP
MISGAV, Israel and VIENNA, Va. (July 06, 2011) - Medgenics, Inc. (NYSE Amex: MDGN and AIM: MEDU, MEDG) announces an extension of its agreement with Baxter Healthcare Corporation for the joint development of the Factor VIII Biopump.
Under the extension, confirmatory studies will be conducted implanting Factor VIII Biopumps in mice. Baxter will bear the costs of these studies including the preparation and delivery of the necessary Biopumps. During the extended agreement, which will expire by September 30, 2011, Baxter has the opportunity, to exercise an exclusive option for 6 months to negotiate with Medgenics an agreement for commercialization of the Biopump Factor VIII technology.

"During recent months Medgenics has made considerable progress with the performance of our Biopump technology, and we are delighted to be moving forward with our collaboration with Baxter, the global leader in hemophilia treatments," stated Andrew L. Pearlman, Ph.D., President and CEO of Medgenics. "We look forward to completing these confirmatory studies and expect that they will validate the ability of our Biopump to produce clinically relevant levels of Factor VIII."

 

[pia786]

GON - interesting intraday trading today

FOGL - looks like it and BOR sold off today on YPF/Petrobras/BP duster off Argentina (thousands of miles away from where FOGL and BOR will drill)

 

[pia786]

 

[pia786]

ECR

First decent thing these guys have done for a while

London: 6 July 2011 - ECR Minerals plc announces that it has received notification that on 5 July 2011 Michael Silver, Executive Chairman purchased 1,000,000 ordinary shares of 0.1 pence each (“Ordinary Shares”) in the Company at a price of 1.61225 pence per Ordinary Share.
Following this transaction, Michael Silver is beneficially interested in 4,080,043 Ordinary Shares, representing approximately 0.75 per cent. of the Company’s total issued share capital.

 

[pia786]

FUM

Is that having an attempt at a stealth breakout ?

Can't see how that company can fail with having Reckitt distributing and marketing their product.

 

[pia786]

SRX on a nice run.

 

[supersix]

jaspa are you going to average down in PXS?

 

[pia786]

MEDU/MEDG video interview with CEO

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk...ortunity-with-its-biopump-technology-802.html

 

[jaspa888]

jaspa are you going to average down in PXS?

I sold at 3p a couple of months ago. Just bought in at 1.52p this morning from additional funds from a WTI dividend payment.

 

[pia786]

Base metals seem to be recovering with US jobs numbers and Chinese rate rise looked well flagged so WTI (copper) , URU (nickel) etc may be interesting

 

[supersix]

I sold at 3p a couple of months ago. Just bought in at 1.52p this morning from additional funds from a WTI dividend payment.

lucky you i stayed in and am down alot..

 

[pia786]

Billions of barrels in oil reserves found off Namibia: minister Isak Katali
7 July 2011

Platts Commodity News


FARM-OUT OPPORTUNITIES LURE BACK OIL MAJORS

Another find off Namibia's central coast called Delta Prospect, by Arcadia Expro (AEN) Namibia and British firm Tower Resources, contained recoverable resources of up to 2 billion barrels of oil, he said

The companies are in the process of a farm-out campaign to help fund a drilling campaign for the block 0010.

Although Namibia is still at its exploration phase, the minister said he expects to see more activity from international oil majors.

"We also expect to see the return of international majors whom we will announce later, back to Namibia which will further improve the image of the country as a new petroleum exploration destination."

Platts on Wednesday reported that BP and Shell had looked at acreage being offered by Chariot while Total was eyeing Arcadia's block

Full article available here (subscription)
https://online.platts.com/PPS/P=m&e...20110707.xml?artnum=201F1R0707FrmD1i8350G1_14