I was invested but not responsible :-D. sorry was rushing out the door for jumaa earlier. IZO Izodia was formerly Infobank a dot.com bubble story of rags to riches and back to rags. 100 bagger ! at one point (1998-2000) before it fell to earth and then there was some fraudulent stuff going on in about 2001/2. The new management came in to sue the **** of those who were perpetrators of the fraud and it looks like having been suspended for years at 40p the shareholders are so far set to receive over 50p+ per share in dividends.
-
Contact the PP Team
Buying shares?
- Thread starter DeadlyVenom
- Start date
Eagle_Eye
ODI Debutant
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VAL showing decent strength over the day. Should have another lift over the weekend as the 'hard copy' Moneyweek readers see Bulfords article on biotechs having potential to be next ASOS etc nice rampy stuff
When you went to their AGM... how far along where they with their GeneICE products?
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It was meant to be two years and they seem to have extended cash runway and got Imperial and Oxford involved doing some work for them to prepare candidate drugs for pre-clinical trials so still very early stage. There was some muttering about their mice dying so i guess it has been delayed somewhat thus they are now talking about deals in the next year or so.
There was some chap at the AGM who was apparently specialist in arranging deals with pharmas so hopefully they are active in approaching some big pharmas to get to next stage.
There was some chap at the AGM who was apparently specialist in arranging deals with pharmas so hopefully they are active in approaching some big pharmas to get to next stage.
TPJ having a late Friday run. Always makes me think some lips may have got a bit loose after a long Friday 'liquid' lunch. News is expected within the next few weeks on two projects at least as far as i am aware and TPJ has not even reacted properly to recent news which saw its Aussie partner GOA up about 30-40% in recent weeks.
SRB Serabi Mining
Analyst view 'has come up trumps'
http://minesite.com/media/pub/var/release_downloadable_file/31972.pdf
Analyst view 'has come up trumps'
http://minesite.com/media/pub/var/release_downloadable_file/31972.pdf
mining786
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I had always thought investing was about buying and selling shares. My understanding was if I can just buy a good stock doesn't matter what sector but just buy it at the right time whilst it is unloved and the price is cheap, and just wait hold on until I make a good return on my investment I would do well. I would ask questions like what is a good entry level? or what is the target price for this? When do I sell? I didn't know this was the behaviour of an amateur.
I was curious and so asked my uncle a few questions and asked if he would help me. I didn't expect this but his reply was 3 words:
"Do it yourself..."
Now my uncle isn't a selfish or mean guy. He would never turn me away if I asked for his help in anything else. I guess he wants me to learn it myself and so didn't answer my questions.
I learned something valuable that I wanted to share on this thread. It doesn't matter what price you pay to buy shares in a company, and it doesn't even matter what the target price might be. What matters is that you know what to buy, and most importantly how well you can diversify and manage the risk. It has changed my way of thinking and has triggered a curiosity to learn more.
I was curious and so asked my uncle a few questions and asked if he would help me. I didn't expect this but his reply was 3 words:
"Do it yourself..."
Now my uncle isn't a selfish or mean guy. He would never turn me away if I asked for his help in anything else. I guess he wants me to learn it myself and so didn't answer my questions.
I learned something valuable that I wanted to share on this thread. It doesn't matter what price you pay to buy shares in a company, and it doesn't even matter what the target price might be. What matters is that you know what to buy, and most importantly how well you can diversify and manage the risk. It has changed my way of thinking and has triggered a curiosity to learn more.
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mining786
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mining786
Tape Ball Regular
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A decent RNS from CNR this morning. VAL showing some strength early on.
mining786
Tape Ball Regular
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Gold $1597.30
The price of gold stocks just not in congruence with the price of gold still seem to be lagging behind. They will have to play catch up some time.
The price of gold stocks just not in congruence with the price of gold still seem to be lagging behind. They will have to play catch up some time.
mining786
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Condor Resources news this a.m not being digested by the look of things. PoG above $1,600 makes me think is it just being used as a safe haven and is unsustainable or will it go higher time will tell...
VAL looks interesting wouldn't surprise me if MM games and a little share price manipulation going on. I would like to think big orders are being filled and the price will shoot up!
VAL looks interesting wouldn't surprise me if MM games and a little share price manipulation going on. I would like to think big orders are being filled and the price will shoot up!
mining786
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<A HREF="http://www.kitco.com/connecting.html">
<IMG SRC="http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/gold/t24_au_en_usoz_4.gif" BORDER="0" ALT="[Most Recent Charts from www.kitco.com]">
</A>
<IMG SRC="http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/gold/t24_au_en_usoz_4.gif" BORDER="0" ALT="[Most Recent Charts from www.kitco.com]">
</A>
mining786
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Gold continues to set records, hitting a fresh nominal all-time high of $1,602.86 on Monday, as the shiny metal goes on an 11-day rally (its longest since 1980) and appears set to go higher. Concerns over the debt ceiling debate in the U.S., along with sovereign debt woes in Europe sending peripheral debt to nearly unsustainable levels, have put pressure on risk assets across the board and sent investors fleeing for safe-haven assets like gold and the Swiss franc. The question now is, how high can it go?
Front-month gold contracts, set to expire July 27, rose to an all-time high before dropping marginally to 41,600 by 11:47 AM in New York. Gold for August delivery, the most actively traded gold future at the Comex, jumped even higher, hitting $1,607.9 during Monday’s session.
Gold is up 13% this year as measured by the SPDR gold trust ETF and has attracted a lot of attention, and capital, given record low interest rates in the U.S. and other developed economies, a weak dollar, and weak fundamental economic indicators across the world’s richest nations.
Research by Nomura shows that gold has the capacity to act both as a risky and a safe-haven asset. The precious metal is highly correlated Nomura’s risk sentiment indicator and negatively to the U.S. dollar, traditionally seen as a safe-haven asset. Gold is also negatively correlated with real rates. But the yellow metal has recently gained on fears that the Euro’s days are numbered, giving the continued implosion of Greece, weakness across other peripherals, and substantial pressure on Italy’s financial sector, the EU’s third largest economy. (Read Italy Is Too Big To Bail, Even For France And Germany).
Gold is still well below its real highs, set back in July 18, 1980 when it hit what would be a price of $2,400 today, according to Capital Economics. While the situation was different back then, with double-digit inflation and geopolitical events fueling massive volatility (the Iranian hostage crisis and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan were among the topics de jour).
Analysts are scrambling to revise their price estimates and set a top for gold in 2011. Fundamentals look strong for the yellow metal, with limited supply additions and increased demand from central banks (according to the World Gold Council, net purchases year-to-date have already surpassed the level seen during all of 2010) and retail investors (in the second quarter, physically backed ETFs saw strong net inflows, “adding a collective 46 tonnes of gold to a total 2,155 tonnes-worth US$104.2 billion-in holdings”). (Read With Gold Set To Peak At $1700, Miners Like Goldcorp Look Cheap).
Demand for gold appears to be fueled by uncertainty and a move toward hard assets that provide security beyond a piece of paper that can be debased by the printing press. Experts at Capital Economics suggest comparing the price of gold with other assets to see how high it could go.
Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil prices, was trading at $115.51 in New York on Monday, a ratio of 13.9 compared to the spot price for gold. That is below the average since 1970 of around 16, suggesting the yellow metal could climb up to $1,870 in the near-term. From the report:
But there have been several periods where this ratio has been as high as 25 to 30, which, based on current oil prices, would imply a gold price of $3,000 to $3,500. Even applying the lower figure of 25 to our medium-term forecast of $85 for Brent implies a gold price of $2,125.
In relation to equity prices, Capital Economics sees gold as a little expensive. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently trading at about 8 times the price of gold, compared to a historical ratio of 10 since 1900. From the report:
But this ratio fell as low as 2 during the Great Depression, and again in the early 1980s. Even if the DJIA were to fall by 60% following some massive new shock, to around 5,000, applying this ratio of 2 would imply a gold price of $10,000 (the extreme scenario marking the top of our range).
Another interesting approach is to look at money supply and measures of the money stock. Since September 2008, the U.S. monetary base has increased by more than 200%, compared with a rise in the price of gold of about 70%. “If the two had been directly related, gold should already have risen to around $2,800.” (Watch Like Gold But Can’t Handle The Volatility, Check Out The Miners).
Looking only at M2, the U.S. broad money aggregate, it has only risen 20% in that time period. “The ratios of gold prices to US M2 and nominal GDP are already some way above their long-run averages,” reads the report.
The analysts chose to remain a bit more conservative, seeing the price of gold hitting $2,000 by 2012, but, given the current, crazy environment, they would “not be surprised to see prices reach this level sooner and then rise significantly further.”
source (http://blogs.forbes.com/afontevecchia)
Front-month gold contracts, set to expire July 27, rose to an all-time high before dropping marginally to 41,600 by 11:47 AM in New York. Gold for August delivery, the most actively traded gold future at the Comex, jumped even higher, hitting $1,607.9 during Monday’s session.
Gold is up 13% this year as measured by the SPDR gold trust ETF and has attracted a lot of attention, and capital, given record low interest rates in the U.S. and other developed economies, a weak dollar, and weak fundamental economic indicators across the world’s richest nations.
Research by Nomura shows that gold has the capacity to act both as a risky and a safe-haven asset. The precious metal is highly correlated Nomura’s risk sentiment indicator and negatively to the U.S. dollar, traditionally seen as a safe-haven asset. Gold is also negatively correlated with real rates. But the yellow metal has recently gained on fears that the Euro’s days are numbered, giving the continued implosion of Greece, weakness across other peripherals, and substantial pressure on Italy’s financial sector, the EU’s third largest economy. (Read Italy Is Too Big To Bail, Even For France And Germany).
Gold is still well below its real highs, set back in July 18, 1980 when it hit what would be a price of $2,400 today, according to Capital Economics. While the situation was different back then, with double-digit inflation and geopolitical events fueling massive volatility (the Iranian hostage crisis and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan were among the topics de jour).
Analysts are scrambling to revise their price estimates and set a top for gold in 2011. Fundamentals look strong for the yellow metal, with limited supply additions and increased demand from central banks (according to the World Gold Council, net purchases year-to-date have already surpassed the level seen during all of 2010) and retail investors (in the second quarter, physically backed ETFs saw strong net inflows, “adding a collective 46 tonnes of gold to a total 2,155 tonnes-worth US$104.2 billion-in holdings”). (Read With Gold Set To Peak At $1700, Miners Like Goldcorp Look Cheap).
Demand for gold appears to be fueled by uncertainty and a move toward hard assets that provide security beyond a piece of paper that can be debased by the printing press. Experts at Capital Economics suggest comparing the price of gold with other assets to see how high it could go.
Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil prices, was trading at $115.51 in New York on Monday, a ratio of 13.9 compared to the spot price for gold. That is below the average since 1970 of around 16, suggesting the yellow metal could climb up to $1,870 in the near-term. From the report:
But there have been several periods where this ratio has been as high as 25 to 30, which, based on current oil prices, would imply a gold price of $3,000 to $3,500. Even applying the lower figure of 25 to our medium-term forecast of $85 for Brent implies a gold price of $2,125.
In relation to equity prices, Capital Economics sees gold as a little expensive. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently trading at about 8 times the price of gold, compared to a historical ratio of 10 since 1900. From the report:
But this ratio fell as low as 2 during the Great Depression, and again in the early 1980s. Even if the DJIA were to fall by 60% following some massive new shock, to around 5,000, applying this ratio of 2 would imply a gold price of $10,000 (the extreme scenario marking the top of our range).
Another interesting approach is to look at money supply and measures of the money stock. Since September 2008, the U.S. monetary base has increased by more than 200%, compared with a rise in the price of gold of about 70%. “If the two had been directly related, gold should already have risen to around $2,800.” (Watch Like Gold But Can’t Handle The Volatility, Check Out The Miners).
Looking only at M2, the U.S. broad money aggregate, it has only risen 20% in that time period. “The ratios of gold prices to US M2 and nominal GDP are already some way above their long-run averages,” reads the report.
The analysts chose to remain a bit more conservative, seeing the price of gold hitting $2,000 by 2012, but, given the current, crazy environment, they would “not be surprised to see prices reach this level sooner and then rise significantly further.”
source (http://blogs.forbes.com/afontevecchia)
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mining786
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I can't help but notice this thread has gone quiet. Voices in your heads do not constitute as sources. I know a lot of people are reading and viewing this on a daily basis so why not get posting it is good to bounce ideas off each other and share research/tips etc etc
Eagle_Eye
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Alzheimer’s Association International Conference on Alzheimer’s Disease 2011
mining786
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This thread needs some highly intellectual material. Something that will confuse and make ones brain hurt when reading.
Tom Bulford on Biotech again
Could this be the next hot sector in the stock market?
From Tom Bulford
Dear Subscriber,
My golfing partner on Sunday works for a small pharmaceutical research company. The business consists of just a handful of clever people and a research laboratory. But despite these apparently skimpy resources my partner was optimistic. “Next January”, he told me, “we will open the envelope”.
This is the moment when his company discovers the results of the human trials of their drug – and this single moment could determine the future of his small business.
You can just imagine the envelope trembling in the hands of the Company’s chairman. His colleagues are gathered around, their fingers tightly crossed and false bonhomie hiding their anxiety. The future of the company is at stake. All those shares and options awarded in lieu of hard cash could suddenly be worth a fortune – or nothing at all.
Today, I want to explain why I think biotechs are going to enjoy the envelope moment a lot more in the next few years. I’ll tell you about an interesting discussion I had recently with one of the most respected authorities in pharmaceutical industry. And I think you’ll like what he has to say…
The terrifying (and exciting) prospect of biotech investing
The fortunes of small pharmaceutical research companies are often determined the moment results of trials are revealed. These are trials of the drugs that have been crafted in the laboratory and analysed in every way possible, except the one that really matters – the trial on a live human being.
When it comes to giving drugs to humans, we cannot be too careful. So the success rate is low. Even the slightest complication or side effect is enough to scupper a new drug. And even if it does no actual harm, there is still a question of whether the new drug works better than those already in existence. You have to be optimistic to back this type of business, loosely known on the stock market as ‘biotechs’. But there are enough success stories to keep the flame alive.
“Look at Human Genome Sciences”, said my golfing partner. “Its share price zoomed from 45 cents to $34. The reason? It had a drug compound called ‘belimumab’ that was shown to improve the health of patients with the chronic inflammatory disease systemic lupus, and with no adverse side effects.”
There can certainly be some big winners in this sector. So why has the industry languished for so long?
The pharmaceutical industry is in flux
The pharmaceutical sector has been under a cloud for some time. Many of the larger players are at the edge of the cliff as their big-selling, high margin drugs face cut-price generic competition for the first time. They have been restructuring hard, and cutting back on the very research that was once responsible for delivering these blockbuster products.
Although India and China are fast emerging as important markets for healthcare products, it is still the USA that sets the tone. Last year’s hugely controversial health reforms have now gone onto the statute book in the shape of President Obama’s ‘Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act’ with the worst fears of the industry unrealised. Now it is back to business as usual.
What does this mean for biotechs? Well, for a perspective on the best investment opportunities in healthcare, I turned to Samuel Isaly, investment manager of the Worldwide Healthcare Trust (WWH), a fund that has produced the highly impressive compound annual return of 14.3% since its inception in 1995.
Why biotech could be the next red hot sector
Isaly is optimistic for the sector, but says that “the largest subset of catalyst-driven investment opportunities that we are finding continues to be in the biotechnology sector, in which we see a combination of high growth rates, attractive valuations, clinical catalysts, product pipelines, new product launches, and M&A activity”.
“Identifying innovative therapies and the next product cycle”, he continues “is critical. The most compelling innovation is often occurring among small-to-mid-capitalisation companies. Several blockbuster drugs are currently being developed by biotechnology companies and are due to be introduced in the year ahead. As these products are launched by smaller biotechnology companies the larger industry players will be actively considering these new product stories as acquisition cand idates”.
Translated, this means that the places to look for the potentially best selling drugs of the future are the research laboratories of biotech firms. And any one of these that can come up with a winner can expect to command a handsome price. Shire’s (SHP) $750m purchase of advanced biohealing is just one of a number of recent acquisitions of promising small biotech companies. The outlook for this forgotten sector looks better than for some time. Last week, I learned that one of the UK's most successful investors is writing a book on the subject. He thinks that biotech could be the next hot stock market sector. I think he is right.
Readers of Red Hot Penny Shares will already be aware of my favourite biotech plays
Could this be the next hot sector in the stock market?
From Tom Bulford
Dear Subscriber,
My golfing partner on Sunday works for a small pharmaceutical research company. The business consists of just a handful of clever people and a research laboratory. But despite these apparently skimpy resources my partner was optimistic. “Next January”, he told me, “we will open the envelope”.
This is the moment when his company discovers the results of the human trials of their drug – and this single moment could determine the future of his small business.
You can just imagine the envelope trembling in the hands of the Company’s chairman. His colleagues are gathered around, their fingers tightly crossed and false bonhomie hiding their anxiety. The future of the company is at stake. All those shares and options awarded in lieu of hard cash could suddenly be worth a fortune – or nothing at all.
Today, I want to explain why I think biotechs are going to enjoy the envelope moment a lot more in the next few years. I’ll tell you about an interesting discussion I had recently with one of the most respected authorities in pharmaceutical industry. And I think you’ll like what he has to say…
The terrifying (and exciting) prospect of biotech investing
The fortunes of small pharmaceutical research companies are often determined the moment results of trials are revealed. These are trials of the drugs that have been crafted in the laboratory and analysed in every way possible, except the one that really matters – the trial on a live human being.
When it comes to giving drugs to humans, we cannot be too careful. So the success rate is low. Even the slightest complication or side effect is enough to scupper a new drug. And even if it does no actual harm, there is still a question of whether the new drug works better than those already in existence. You have to be optimistic to back this type of business, loosely known on the stock market as ‘biotechs’. But there are enough success stories to keep the flame alive.
“Look at Human Genome Sciences”, said my golfing partner. “Its share price zoomed from 45 cents to $34. The reason? It had a drug compound called ‘belimumab’ that was shown to improve the health of patients with the chronic inflammatory disease systemic lupus, and with no adverse side effects.”
There can certainly be some big winners in this sector. So why has the industry languished for so long?
The pharmaceutical industry is in flux
The pharmaceutical sector has been under a cloud for some time. Many of the larger players are at the edge of the cliff as their big-selling, high margin drugs face cut-price generic competition for the first time. They have been restructuring hard, and cutting back on the very research that was once responsible for delivering these blockbuster products.
Although India and China are fast emerging as important markets for healthcare products, it is still the USA that sets the tone. Last year’s hugely controversial health reforms have now gone onto the statute book in the shape of President Obama’s ‘Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act’ with the worst fears of the industry unrealised. Now it is back to business as usual.
What does this mean for biotechs? Well, for a perspective on the best investment opportunities in healthcare, I turned to Samuel Isaly, investment manager of the Worldwide Healthcare Trust (WWH), a fund that has produced the highly impressive compound annual return of 14.3% since its inception in 1995.
Why biotech could be the next red hot sector
Isaly is optimistic for the sector, but says that “the largest subset of catalyst-driven investment opportunities that we are finding continues to be in the biotechnology sector, in which we see a combination of high growth rates, attractive valuations, clinical catalysts, product pipelines, new product launches, and M&A activity”.
“Identifying innovative therapies and the next product cycle”, he continues “is critical. The most compelling innovation is often occurring among small-to-mid-capitalisation companies. Several blockbuster drugs are currently being developed by biotechnology companies and are due to be introduced in the year ahead. As these products are launched by smaller biotechnology companies the larger industry players will be actively considering these new product stories as acquisition cand idates”.
Translated, this means that the places to look for the potentially best selling drugs of the future are the research laboratories of biotech firms. And any one of these that can come up with a winner can expect to command a handsome price. Shire’s (SHP) $750m purchase of advanced biohealing is just one of a number of recent acquisitions of promising small biotech companies. The outlook for this forgotten sector looks better than for some time. Last week, I learned that one of the UK's most successful investors is writing a book on the subject. He thinks that biotech could be the next hot stock market sector. I think he is right.
Readers of Red Hot Penny Shares will already be aware of my favourite biotech plays
mining786
Tape Ball Regular
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- Feb 13, 2011
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post deleted
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mining786
Tape Ball Regular
- Joined
- Feb 13, 2011
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- 377
Ambrian Partners said that it continued to rate Condor Resources (LON:CNR) as a ‘speculative buy’, stating that it expected continued news flow covering assay results and resource upgrades “to act as a catalyst for share price growth”. The group announced that it had found further high-grade intercepts at its La India project in Nicaragua.
The analysts commented that the results confirmed its view that the nature of the mineralisation “is a series of high-grade plunging shoots within a wider low-grade envelope”. The broker continued: “The high-grade shoots are often small and hard to intersect in drilling, but extremely profitable if defined and mined.”
The analysts commented that the results confirmed its view that the nature of the mineralisation “is a series of high-grade plunging shoots within a wider low-grade envelope”. The broker continued: “The high-grade shoots are often small and hard to intersect in drilling, but extremely profitable if defined and mined.”
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mining786
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There is a pattern in the gold trend. The price after reaching all time high above $1600 has been in a mild correction phase by the looks of things now $1597 so moving back up again. The behaviour patterns are similar to stocks, it will probably consolidate here or retrace lower before it makes its next onslaught attack reaching possibly $1700/$1800 in pretty short order. If I am wrong please do not condemn me.
mining786
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- Feb 13, 2011
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- 377
Weatherly International
EPIC: WTI
SP: 9.00p
MC: 47.64m
Shares in issue:
536.572m
WTI will be presenting tomorrow at proactive investors
http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/register/event_details/118
Weatherly owns two Copper Mines as well as a number of development projects in Namibia and elsewhere in Africa.
In Namibia, the Company's future strategy is to establish a copper mining business capable of sustaining approximately 20,000tpa of copper at average industry cost of production for the next ten years.
Weatherly treated nearly 60 000 tonnes of ore mined at Otjihase and Matchless, which was processed to yield 2 834 tonnes of concentrate containing 663 tonnes of copper.
Recent reports state that Weatherly hopes the two mines will be able to produce around 7 000 tonnes of copper annually as part of a plan to transform Weatherly into a 20 000-tonnes-a-year producer.
http://allafrica.com/stories/201107180903.html
Ambrian target price 19.7p
http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk...tional-will-hit-production-targets-30501.html
EPIC: WTI
SP: 9.00p
MC: 47.64m
Shares in issue:
536.572m
WTI will be presenting tomorrow at proactive investors
http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/register/event_details/118
Weatherly owns two Copper Mines as well as a number of development projects in Namibia and elsewhere in Africa.
In Namibia, the Company's future strategy is to establish a copper mining business capable of sustaining approximately 20,000tpa of copper at average industry cost of production for the next ten years.
Weatherly treated nearly 60 000 tonnes of ore mined at Otjihase and Matchless, which was processed to yield 2 834 tonnes of concentrate containing 663 tonnes of copper.
Recent reports state that Weatherly hopes the two mines will be able to produce around 7 000 tonnes of copper annually as part of a plan to transform Weatherly into a 20 000-tonnes-a-year producer.
http://allafrica.com/stories/201107180903.html
Ambrian target price 19.7p
http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk...tional-will-hit-production-targets-30501.html
mining786
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- Feb 13, 2011
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WTI - is one of the best base metal plays on AIM, according to analyst Adam Kiley of City broker Ambrian. This looks a very lucrative play. Its worth having a look at these old links.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T656-YpmhGg&feature=related
http://www.minesite.com/fileadmin/content/pdfs/Minesite_Presentations/Jan_201...
http://www.weatherlyplc.com/downloads/pdf/Weatherly_Presentation_March_2011.pdf
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T656-YpmhGg&feature=related
http://www.minesite.com/fileadmin/content/pdfs/Minesite_Presentations/Jan_201...
http://www.weatherlyplc.com/downloads/pdf/Weatherly_Presentation_March_2011.pdf
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mining786
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Orogen Gold - have confirmed Aug 15th for interim results
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201107211520158448K
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201107211520158448K
mining786
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- Feb 13, 2011
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Tom Bulford
Dear Subscriber,
It seems incredible to me, but every time a bulb is changed on the London Underground it apparently costs Transport for London anything from £100 to £1,000.
Only £12 of this is the cost of the new bulb, so you can deduce that each seemingly trifling task involves site preparation, scheduling, ladder shifting, skilled light bulb fitting, contingency planning, health and safety checks, billing, payment, accounting entries, re-stocking and managerial oversight.
There are four million light bulbs on the London Underground! Each one lasts for about a year. So Transport for London must be spending anything from £400m to £4bn per year just changing light bulbs.
These are the facts according to Gavin Little, the new chairman of Active Energy (AEG). Formerly known as Cinpart, this was a successful investment for readers of Red Hot Penny Shares.
We bought in at 7.75p in 2009 and checked out at 14.5p within nine months for an 87% gain. That proved to be a good decision. Cinpart failed to deliver on its promises to sell its voltage optimisation box and the share price has slithered back to 2.5p today.
Now though, the company has adopted a new name, Active Energy; it has a new Chairman, Gavin Little, who has an interest in the shares but takes no salary; and it has a new strategy. And once again, it looks a very exciting prospect in what is now a booming industry…
How Active is slashing corporate energy bills
Active Energy is looking to become a consultant and service provider in a sector that is enjoying serious growth – energy management. Anybody who pays the energy bills for a big building knows that they have been rising fast and would like to bring them down. Saving energy, saving money and reducing the carbon footprint are all either commercial or regulatory imperatives and with every twist upwards of gas and electricity prices the matter becomes more urgent.
The difficulty is not finding products that claim to generate savings – they’re ten a penny – but knowing which of these products work, and which combination of products represents the best solution for each company. Building managers are besieged by salesmen touting energy saving devices, but they do not know the best way to spend their limited budget.
Active Energy still sells its voltage optimisation box, and has a marketing arrangement with Scottish and Southern Energy. By regulating the amount of voltage that passes into a building this can achieve cost savings of 15%-25%.
But while this may make perfect sense for some buildings it is not necessarily the case with others….
A new alliance that could resurrect Active Energy
Gavin Little quotes an example of a visit to Great Ormond Street Hospital. Active Energy’s assessor looked at the hospital’s energy saving arrangements and concluded that there was little more that could be done. “You are the first person who has not tried to sell me his product”, was the response of a duly impressed hospital manager. “Now I would like you to look at all of our other buildings, starting with the hospital down the road…”
What Little saw was the need for an independent consultancy and to this end Active Energy struck an alliance with Epoda. The latter offers software that automatically measures a building’s energy consumption, and then recommends the products that will give the best energy savings. This is particularly pertinent for multi-site property owners such as Punch Taverns that want a consistent appraisal of all their buildings.
Active Energy has built on its energy audit business, now additionally offering installation and maintenance services. This follows the acquisition of Red Line Engineering Services, which has an all-important Transport for London accreditation. Little believes that other transport groups, including the colossal overground railway companies, will pay attention to energy saving moves made by the London Underground and follow its lead.
So this is a rebirth for Active Energy. It is ambitious and to his credit, Gavin Little admits that the theory has yet to be turned into practice. On the surface though, the business plan makes good sense. Active Energy is offering a comprehensive solution to confused facilities managers and if they bite, these shares could jump up off the floor. I’m going to be following the fortunes of this great stock very closely in the months ahead.
Good investing,
Tom Bulford
The Penny Sleuth
Dear Subscriber,
It seems incredible to me, but every time a bulb is changed on the London Underground it apparently costs Transport for London anything from £100 to £1,000.
Only £12 of this is the cost of the new bulb, so you can deduce that each seemingly trifling task involves site preparation, scheduling, ladder shifting, skilled light bulb fitting, contingency planning, health and safety checks, billing, payment, accounting entries, re-stocking and managerial oversight.
There are four million light bulbs on the London Underground! Each one lasts for about a year. So Transport for London must be spending anything from £400m to £4bn per year just changing light bulbs.
These are the facts according to Gavin Little, the new chairman of Active Energy (AEG). Formerly known as Cinpart, this was a successful investment for readers of Red Hot Penny Shares.
We bought in at 7.75p in 2009 and checked out at 14.5p within nine months for an 87% gain. That proved to be a good decision. Cinpart failed to deliver on its promises to sell its voltage optimisation box and the share price has slithered back to 2.5p today.
Now though, the company has adopted a new name, Active Energy; it has a new Chairman, Gavin Little, who has an interest in the shares but takes no salary; and it has a new strategy. And once again, it looks a very exciting prospect in what is now a booming industry…
How Active is slashing corporate energy bills
Active Energy is looking to become a consultant and service provider in a sector that is enjoying serious growth – energy management. Anybody who pays the energy bills for a big building knows that they have been rising fast and would like to bring them down. Saving energy, saving money and reducing the carbon footprint are all either commercial or regulatory imperatives and with every twist upwards of gas and electricity prices the matter becomes more urgent.
The difficulty is not finding products that claim to generate savings – they’re ten a penny – but knowing which of these products work, and which combination of products represents the best solution for each company. Building managers are besieged by salesmen touting energy saving devices, but they do not know the best way to spend their limited budget.
Active Energy still sells its voltage optimisation box, and has a marketing arrangement with Scottish and Southern Energy. By regulating the amount of voltage that passes into a building this can achieve cost savings of 15%-25%.
But while this may make perfect sense for some buildings it is not necessarily the case with others….
A new alliance that could resurrect Active Energy
Gavin Little quotes an example of a visit to Great Ormond Street Hospital. Active Energy’s assessor looked at the hospital’s energy saving arrangements and concluded that there was little more that could be done. “You are the first person who has not tried to sell me his product”, was the response of a duly impressed hospital manager. “Now I would like you to look at all of our other buildings, starting with the hospital down the road…”
What Little saw was the need for an independent consultancy and to this end Active Energy struck an alliance with Epoda. The latter offers software that automatically measures a building’s energy consumption, and then recommends the products that will give the best energy savings. This is particularly pertinent for multi-site property owners such as Punch Taverns that want a consistent appraisal of all their buildings.
Active Energy has built on its energy audit business, now additionally offering installation and maintenance services. This follows the acquisition of Red Line Engineering Services, which has an all-important Transport for London accreditation. Little believes that other transport groups, including the colossal overground railway companies, will pay attention to energy saving moves made by the London Underground and follow its lead.
So this is a rebirth for Active Energy. It is ambitious and to his credit, Gavin Little admits that the theory has yet to be turned into practice. On the surface though, the business plan makes good sense. Active Energy is offering a comprehensive solution to confused facilities managers and if they bite, these shares could jump up off the floor. I’m going to be following the fortunes of this great stock very closely in the months ahead.
Good investing,
Tom Bulford
The Penny Sleuth
mining786
Tape Ball Regular
- Joined
- Feb 13, 2011
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Weatherly International (LON:WTI) now plans to drill a further 12 holes and carry out another column leach test before it completes the bankable feasibility study (BFS) for the Tschudi copper project in Namibia.
It said that it has decided, after discussions with potential financing partners, to expand the study to ensure that it meets the rigorous technical and financial requirements of a BFS. The BFS will now be delayed until mid-2012.
"In order to maintain shareholder value we are looking to utilise debt and project finance to fund this development and reduce potential dilution to shareholders,” said chief executive Rob Webster.
“It is therefore important that we deliver a feasibility study that meets all the requirements of our potential financing partners rather than have to revisit it at a subsequent financing stage."
Although the company doesn’t expect to complete the BFS by mid-2012, it plans to complete a separate report on the project’s feasibility, in relation to the capital costs associated with the plant and the open pit mine, by the end of this year.
“It is the Company's objective to be in a position to announce the full details of the BFS, together with a financing package and indicative construction programme, by mid 2012,” Weatherly said.
http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk...bility-study-delays-until-mid-2012-30992.html
It said that it has decided, after discussions with potential financing partners, to expand the study to ensure that it meets the rigorous technical and financial requirements of a BFS. The BFS will now be delayed until mid-2012.
"In order to maintain shareholder value we are looking to utilise debt and project finance to fund this development and reduce potential dilution to shareholders,” said chief executive Rob Webster.
“It is therefore important that we deliver a feasibility study that meets all the requirements of our potential financing partners rather than have to revisit it at a subsequent financing stage."
Although the company doesn’t expect to complete the BFS by mid-2012, it plans to complete a separate report on the project’s feasibility, in relation to the capital costs associated with the plant and the open pit mine, by the end of this year.
“It is the Company's objective to be in a position to announce the full details of the BFS, together with a financing package and indicative construction programme, by mid 2012,” Weatherly said.
http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk...bility-study-delays-until-mid-2012-30992.html
TPJ - tipped in the Investors Chronicle today.
Triple Plated potential
Created: 21 July 2011 Written by: Martin Li
http://www.investorschronicle.co.uk...8d63-00144f2af8e8/Triple-Plated-potential.jsp
BULL POINTS:
- Joint ventures with gold majors
- Operates in proven gold-bearing region
- Busy exploration programme
- Likely takeover target
BEAR POINTS:
- Fund-raising required
- Doesn't control projects
Triple Plate Junction (TPJ) is a junior mining explorer whose licences in south east Asia are close to some of the world's largest gold deposits, and whose value is underpinned by partnerships with three of the world's top gold miners.
IC TIP RATING
Tip style Speculative
Risk rating High
Timescale Long term
The really eye-catching agreement is TPJ's Morobe joint venture with Newmont Mining in Papua New Guinea. Morobe lies close to the Wafi Golpu joint venture operated by Harmony Gold Mining and Newcrest Mining, where drilling has increased the extent and grade of mineralisation so much that the partners have increased their exploration target to a massive 40 million ounces of gold and 15 million tonnes of copper.
Exploration at Morobe has highlighted high gold grades and geological characteristics that are typical of a large gold and copper deposit. True, no one has suggested Morobe will have anywhere near the scale of Wafi Golpu, yet Newmont - a giant US miner - is only interested in really big projects.
Morobe is high on Newmont's list of exploration projects, as demonstrated by the terms of its agreement with TPJ. Newmont spent $6m (£3.7m) up to August 2010, which was two years ahead of its commitment, and has elected to proceed to phase two. This commits Newmont to spending a further $9m by 2015 to earn up to a 70 per cent interest. However, TPJ's stake can't be diluted below 25 per cent no matter how much its partner spends.
Newmont has been carrying out airborne magnetic surveys, geological mapping and sampling, and has been building up the exploration camp and improving access roads. This suggests it is likely to spend a lot more than so far committed, which will increase the imputed value of TPJ's interest.
In fact, so keen was Newmont's interest in the licence that it launched a takeover offer for TPJ last November. The initial 4p bid was rejected and the grapevine says discussions stalled around the 6p mark. However, the US group's ambitions didn't end there - in February, it lifted its stake in TPJ from 18 per cent to 26 per cent, buying shares at 6.375p when the market price was 5.02p. This suggests Newmont may bid again, particularly if exploration confirms a major discovery; though Newmont says a future offer must be recommended by TPJ's board.
TRIPLE PLATE JUNCTION (TPJ)
ORD PRICE: 7p MARKET VALUE: £21m
TOUCH: 6.5-7p 12-MONTH HIGH: 9p LOW: 1p
DIVIDEND YIELD: NIL PE RATIO: NA
NET ASSET VALUE: 5p NET DEBT: 1%
*Daniel Stewart estimates
Elsewhere, TPJ has Papua New Guinea joint ventures with Barrick Gold at Wamum, Newcrest Mining at Manus Island and Gold Anomaly at Crater Mountain. Drilling has just started at Hide's Creek at Morobe and TPJ could be drilling on three of its projects this year, which could mean plenty of news to get the share price moving.
TPJ raised £2.5m raised in November, which finances the company through to the year-end, although further funds will then be needed. True, as a minority partner, TPJ is not in control of its destiny, although a strike on any of its projects will probably transform its share price, quite likely via a bid from a partner.
SHARE TIP SUMMARY:
Buy
The Newmont joint venture, the likely gold target at Morobe and last year's bid all underpin TPJ's share price. But the upside could yet be huge. Buy.
Triple Plated potential
Created: 21 July 2011 Written by: Martin Li
http://www.investorschronicle.co.uk...8d63-00144f2af8e8/Triple-Plated-potential.jsp
BULL POINTS:
- Joint ventures with gold majors
- Operates in proven gold-bearing region
- Busy exploration programme
- Likely takeover target
BEAR POINTS:
- Fund-raising required
- Doesn't control projects
Triple Plate Junction (TPJ) is a junior mining explorer whose licences in south east Asia are close to some of the world's largest gold deposits, and whose value is underpinned by partnerships with three of the world's top gold miners.
IC TIP RATING
Tip style Speculative
Risk rating High
Timescale Long term
The really eye-catching agreement is TPJ's Morobe joint venture with Newmont Mining in Papua New Guinea. Morobe lies close to the Wafi Golpu joint venture operated by Harmony Gold Mining and Newcrest Mining, where drilling has increased the extent and grade of mineralisation so much that the partners have increased their exploration target to a massive 40 million ounces of gold and 15 million tonnes of copper.
Exploration at Morobe has highlighted high gold grades and geological characteristics that are typical of a large gold and copper deposit. True, no one has suggested Morobe will have anywhere near the scale of Wafi Golpu, yet Newmont - a giant US miner - is only interested in really big projects.
Morobe is high on Newmont's list of exploration projects, as demonstrated by the terms of its agreement with TPJ. Newmont spent $6m (£3.7m) up to August 2010, which was two years ahead of its commitment, and has elected to proceed to phase two. This commits Newmont to spending a further $9m by 2015 to earn up to a 70 per cent interest. However, TPJ's stake can't be diluted below 25 per cent no matter how much its partner spends.
Newmont has been carrying out airborne magnetic surveys, geological mapping and sampling, and has been building up the exploration camp and improving access roads. This suggests it is likely to spend a lot more than so far committed, which will increase the imputed value of TPJ's interest.
In fact, so keen was Newmont's interest in the licence that it launched a takeover offer for TPJ last November. The initial 4p bid was rejected and the grapevine says discussions stalled around the 6p mark. However, the US group's ambitions didn't end there - in February, it lifted its stake in TPJ from 18 per cent to 26 per cent, buying shares at 6.375p when the market price was 5.02p. This suggests Newmont may bid again, particularly if exploration confirms a major discovery; though Newmont says a future offer must be recommended by TPJ's board.
TRIPLE PLATE JUNCTION (TPJ)
ORD PRICE: 7p MARKET VALUE: £21m
TOUCH: 6.5-7p 12-MONTH HIGH: 9p LOW: 1p
DIVIDEND YIELD: NIL PE RATIO: NA
NET ASSET VALUE: 5p NET DEBT: 1%
*Daniel Stewart estimates
Elsewhere, TPJ has Papua New Guinea joint ventures with Barrick Gold at Wamum, Newcrest Mining at Manus Island and Gold Anomaly at Crater Mountain. Drilling has just started at Hide's Creek at Morobe and TPJ could be drilling on three of its projects this year, which could mean plenty of news to get the share price moving.
TPJ raised £2.5m raised in November, which finances the company through to the year-end, although further funds will then be needed. True, as a minority partner, TPJ is not in control of its destiny, although a strike on any of its projects will probably transform its share price, quite likely via a bid from a partner.
SHARE TIP SUMMARY:
Buy
The Newmont joint venture, the likely gold target at Morobe and last year's bid all underpin TPJ's share price. But the upside could yet be huge. Buy.
FOGL & BOR the South Falkland Basin players get a write-up in the IC as well...
The billion-barrel oil hunters
Created: 22 July 2011 Written by: Martin Li
http://www.investorschronicle.co.uk...0144f2af8e8/The-billionbarrel-oil-hunters.jsp
Borders & Southern (BOR)/Falkland Oil & Gas (FOGL)
The Falklands oil story continues to fascinate, even though last year's drilling campaign in the North Falkland basin returned just a solitary discovery for Rockhopper Exploration, leaving fellow explorer Desire Petroleum close to ruin.
While Rockhopper continues to appraise its Sea Lion strike – recent confirmation of commercial flow rates is encouraging – attention is turning to the largely unexplored South Falkland basin. The prospect sizes here are an order of magnitude larger than those in the north, although the targets are more remote, water depths are greater and the lack of previous drilling heightens geological risk. After years of trying to contract a suitable rig, Borders & Southern secured use of the Leiv Eriksson, an ultra-deep water, harsh-environment rig of which there are only around a dozen in the world. This will sail for the South Atlantic once it has completed drilling in Greenland this summer for Cairn Energy. Borders expects to drill the first of two exploration wells in late December, after which Falkland Oil & Gas (FOGL) will drill two exploration wells next year.
Borders chief executive Howard Obee highlights several factors that mitigate the otherwise significant risks of exploring a 'wildcat' frontier. Geophysical signatures provide strong indications of hydrocarbons while three-dimensional (3D) seismic surveys help pinpoint optimum drilling locations along a trend that stretches west from Borders' acreage to a basin that has produced 6bn barrels of oil.
Borders will first drill the Darwin prospect, which has an estimated size of 300m-760m barrels of oil recoverable, and then the Stebbing prospect, which is estimated at 710m-1,280m barrels recoverable. Between them, these two wells will target nearly $20bn of value.
Following the two Borders wells, FOGL will drill its Loligo prospect and then a second well still to be decided. To give an idea of prospect scale, FOGL’s chief executive, Tim Bushell, says the Loligo structure covers an area the size of Greater London. Loligo has estimated mean prospective resources of 4.7bn barrels, although recoverable oil, for comparison with the Borders prospects, will be lower.
The chief executives caution that any discoveries will need to be at least 100m barrels of oil (and any gas discoveries will need to be multiple trillions of cubic feet) to stand any chance of being commercial. Mr Obee adds that each discovery will need to be commercial on a standalone basis since each is likely to be developed using a floating production and storage vessel rather than through a platform that could be shared. Nevertheless, these four wells could open up a new petroleum province with multi-billion barrel potential and investor interest will inevitably heighten through the autumn.
The billion-barrel oil hunters
Created: 22 July 2011 Written by: Martin Li
http://www.investorschronicle.co.uk...0144f2af8e8/The-billionbarrel-oil-hunters.jsp
Borders & Southern (BOR)/Falkland Oil & Gas (FOGL)
The Falklands oil story continues to fascinate, even though last year's drilling campaign in the North Falkland basin returned just a solitary discovery for Rockhopper Exploration, leaving fellow explorer Desire Petroleum close to ruin.
While Rockhopper continues to appraise its Sea Lion strike – recent confirmation of commercial flow rates is encouraging – attention is turning to the largely unexplored South Falkland basin. The prospect sizes here are an order of magnitude larger than those in the north, although the targets are more remote, water depths are greater and the lack of previous drilling heightens geological risk. After years of trying to contract a suitable rig, Borders & Southern secured use of the Leiv Eriksson, an ultra-deep water, harsh-environment rig of which there are only around a dozen in the world. This will sail for the South Atlantic once it has completed drilling in Greenland this summer for Cairn Energy. Borders expects to drill the first of two exploration wells in late December, after which Falkland Oil & Gas (FOGL) will drill two exploration wells next year.
Borders chief executive Howard Obee highlights several factors that mitigate the otherwise significant risks of exploring a 'wildcat' frontier. Geophysical signatures provide strong indications of hydrocarbons while three-dimensional (3D) seismic surveys help pinpoint optimum drilling locations along a trend that stretches west from Borders' acreage to a basin that has produced 6bn barrels of oil.
Borders will first drill the Darwin prospect, which has an estimated size of 300m-760m barrels of oil recoverable, and then the Stebbing prospect, which is estimated at 710m-1,280m barrels recoverable. Between them, these two wells will target nearly $20bn of value.
Following the two Borders wells, FOGL will drill its Loligo prospect and then a second well still to be decided. To give an idea of prospect scale, FOGL’s chief executive, Tim Bushell, says the Loligo structure covers an area the size of Greater London. Loligo has estimated mean prospective resources of 4.7bn barrels, although recoverable oil, for comparison with the Borders prospects, will be lower.
The chief executives caution that any discoveries will need to be at least 100m barrels of oil (and any gas discoveries will need to be multiple trillions of cubic feet) to stand any chance of being commercial. Mr Obee adds that each discovery will need to be commercial on a standalone basis since each is likely to be developed using a floating production and storage vessel rather than through a platform that could be shared. Nevertheless, these four wells could open up a new petroleum province with multi-billion barrel potential and investor interest will inevitably heighten through the autumn.
mining786
Tape Ball Regular
- Joined
- Feb 13, 2011
- Runs
- 377
WTI - A bit of a different scenario to what I had in mind. A bit disappointing really looking at it short term, but still looks rosy looking at it from a long term perspective. The delays will most likely cause the sp to fall. It often happens pi's get a hair cut. It is a bit like going into a store, and buying something on the sales, only to find out later the price has been reduced a bit lower a few days later hence I would say a buying opportunity imo
SHE - Sheba Exploration
Corporate Action notification gone out from TD Waterhouse.
Shareholders have until 26th July to accept the offer from Centamin.
http://tinyurl.com/shebaexpl
Current value of offer is 6.5p (3p cash and 3.5p worth of Centamin shares (1/40th of current CEY share price of 140p))
Corporate Action notification gone out from TD Waterhouse.
Shareholders have until 26th July to accept the offer from Centamin.
http://tinyurl.com/shebaexpl
Current value of offer is 6.5p (3p cash and 3.5p worth of Centamin shares (1/40th of current CEY share price of 140p))
Last edited:
DeadlyVenom
Senior Test Player
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- 25,361
- Post of the Week
- 1
Toony®;4012105 said:
Quite sure pia and eagle eye discussed it a few a pages back. Will try to find the posts.
Sent from my X10i using Tapatalk
I don't as a rule trust AIM listed US oil and gas plays. US/Canadian capital markets are perfectly capable of allocating capital efficiently in their home market why do they come to AIM ? Lack of regulation ? Lack of criminal prosecution of promoters who are economical with the actualite ?
HAWK, EME, NTOG are a few of the rubbish plays already listed here.
HAWK, EME, NTOG are a few of the rubbish plays already listed here.
mining786
Tape Ball Regular
- Joined
- Feb 13, 2011
- Runs
- 377
Eagle_Eye/DeadlyVenom/pia786/Jaspa
What do you guys respectively think of AGQ?
Arian Silver Corp (LON:AGQ, CVE:AGQ) revealed a massive uplift in resources for the San Jose silver project in Zacatecas State, Mexico. The junior silver firm has increased the total resource tonnage for the San Jose Vein (SJV) by 86 percent and the amount of contained silver has increased by 105 percent.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cx3v2Q3tzCo
What do you guys respectively think of AGQ?
Arian Silver Corp (LON:AGQ, CVE:AGQ) revealed a massive uplift in resources for the San Jose silver project in Zacatecas State, Mexico. The junior silver firm has increased the total resource tonnage for the San Jose Vein (SJV) by 86 percent and the amount of contained silver has increased by 105 percent.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cx3v2Q3tzCo
Not a fan of AGQ they do not have a large resource with blue sky growth potential.
I tend to prefer stocks with huge growth potential.
It seems to be popular in the AIM market as the supposedly 'only' 'silver' play but that ignores the likes of HOC and FRES.
Tom Winnifrith at a recent Minesite commented that there were no quality silver plays on AIM. An audience member in the Q&A asked him about AGQ, Winnifrith simply repeated his earlier statement that there were no quality silver plays on AIM.
CNR prospectively have a more exciting and unappreciated silver resource.
I tend to prefer stocks with huge growth potential.
It seems to be popular in the AIM market as the supposedly 'only' 'silver' play but that ignores the likes of HOC and FRES.
Tom Winnifrith at a recent Minesite commented that there were no quality silver plays on AIM. An audience member in the Q&A asked him about AGQ, Winnifrith simply repeated his earlier statement that there were no quality silver plays on AIM.
CNR prospectively have a more exciting and unappreciated silver resource.
Last edited:
mining786
Tape Ball Regular
- Joined
- Feb 13, 2011
- Runs
- 377
I am optimistic with regards to CNR. I have read, and heard good things about the company. You have obviously an eye for potential multibaggers. Your stock picking skills are excellent. I was just trying give myself some exposure to a good silver play.
I only have bought a small position in AGQ so will just see how it goes. I've not really done enough research on it as I would like to need to do some more. Thank you for your response.
I only have bought a small position in AGQ so will just see how it goes. I've not really done enough research on it as I would like to need to do some more. Thank you for your response.
good discussion here between two newsletter writers on the disconnect between gold and gold equities :-
Whither Goest Thou? Charles Wyatt’s Last Words On Gold
By Rod Whyte
Charles Wyatt died on Wednesday, before he could complete an article on which he and I were working together. What follows is a transcript of our discussions on the subject of gold and gold equities, which I offer as a tribute to a veteran mining journalist, Minesite founder, and long-standing friend.
Charles: Look Rod, you’re always banging on about junior gold shares being oversold and too cheap. Spare us your lectures, and do an article for Minesite instead. Just explain the divergence between gold and gold shares in simple terms.
Rod: But you’re asking a multi-million dollar question! Why not get one of the brokers to do it?
Charles: No. They are too ponderous and they extrapolate gfms statistics and take a week. If you do it you can mention some of the better companies you talk about like Pelangio with that nice woman, and not that one run by the Indian bean counter, Moneta.
Rod: Okay. Here goes. Gold bullion has done well, as measured in all currencies but particularly in US dollars, Euro and sterling, against which it is trading at all-time record levels. But note that adjusted for purchasing power parity the 1980 peak of US$850 per ounce would be about US$2,350 today. Even so, gold is now being seen as a currency, a commodity, a store of value and a portable hard asset, and not at all as a “barbarous relic” as some called it in 1980.
Charles interrupts: Put in a plug here for the good guys at gata. Their work insulates us from scare stories that all the gold ever mined is on the surface. Remember today the Central banks are buying not selling.
Rod: I suppose you want to beat up Gordon Brown again for selling most of Britain’s gold at all time low levels?
Charles: We have a moral obligation to remind people as often as possible. Brown was a bloody disaster.
Rod: Well, I agree with Peter Munk, the President of Barrick Gold. There has been a dynamic change from the historic supply/demand equation. Chinese and Indian central banks want to increase the amount of gold they hold as a proportion of their reserve assets and are consistently buying. As are high net worth investors in the brics.
Also, new mine production has for some time been insufficient to replace depletion at older mines and in the last couple of years gold scrap sales – mostly jewellery – have exceeded jewellery demand, which is unprecedented and likely unsustainable. Families cannot sell Grandma’s jewellery twice!
Charles: Okay, that’s enough of that. We all agree gold is going up and not down. Now what about the junior gold companies themselves?
Rod: The thing is, investors in the junior gold exploration sector are a very different species from the major participants in the gold supply/demand equation.
Charles: Go on.
Rod: There are thousands of small companies with exploration properties all over the world, and most are not on investor radar screens. They are usually illiquid, have no broker/analyst following and often rely on the pockets or contacts of their promoters to get noticed.
Charles: But Minesite will put them on the radar screen as long as there are not crooks behind them. There are plenty of good stories to be told and if the chief executive answers his phone we can tell the story – and bear in mind that I want to talk with the chief executive, not brokers or PR pluggers!
Rod: Alright, alright! We’ll try to get the chief execs where we can! But even where they are willing to talk it’s still an uphill battle.
Charles: But why?
Rod: This dynamic has deep roots. In the 40-odd years since Bretton Woods set gold free from its fixed US$35 per ounce, there’s been a consistent correlation between the gold price and gold shares, and for most of this period the shares led the gold price up or down for reasons of leverage. In the last several years, though, that relationship has broken. In the 2008 global financial meltdown investors were desperate to deleverage and raise cash. Fear overcame greed, and buyers disappeared. With sellers dominant, prices collapsed by 70 per cent or even 90 per cent.
Charles: But that was almost three years ago, why have they not recovered? There are plenty of tipsters and newsletter writers out there today promoting the juniors again, even if many are living off long forgotten successes.
Rod: One reason is that, sadly, brokers these days highlight the companies from which they derive their fees. When a broker initiates coverage it means it has signed up a new corporate client. We do not have an efficient or well-informed market for exploration juniors, whether you are talking about Canada, Australia or on Aim, and there’s no real market at all in the usa. It would really help if brokers did peer comparisons for regions to show how much an investor pays to get an ounce of gold relative to capitalisation.
Charles: What about the liquidity of these junior shares?
Rod: Most juniors are illiquid at present and institutional investors cannot trade with, say, £1 million, anywhere near the price on the screen. The average Minesite reader can invest £10,000 and will potentially make tremendous profits when the institutions decide to buy. Some commentators argue that gold exploration juniors are discounting a gold price below US$1,000 per ounce. When sellers become holders, new buyers will push up prices; shares that fell 90 per cent must rise eight or nine times to get back to the previous peak price.
Charles: You have used all this space, Rod, but what is the bottom line? What do you, personally, think is going to happen?
Rod: Well, the quality juniors have now recovered enough to raise money. There is no shortage of available funds, if you dilute the shareholders, and lots of juniors are now running significant drill programs, particularly in West Africa. The likes of Cluff Gold, Pelangio, Legend Gold and Resolute spring to mind. Assay results are coming through which will upgrade and de-risk projects. As new discoveries become common, share prices will up run on discoveries, and soon, on the expectation of discovery.
Assuming gold challenges US$1800 per ounce later this year, investor greed will overcome fear of failure. Companies with new discoveries will become market darlings again and will double or triple. Then nearology will return as brokers draw up regional maps to draw attention to the similarity of the host rock for their client companies in far extended locations. This is happening now in Ghana. Tomorrow it will be Mali and then Burkina Faso. I think that the really smart money is going into png and epithermal plays like mil Resources. Your readers should google the buzz words like epithermal gold or copper/gold porphyry.
Charles: Well at higher gold prices the economics of bringing in new mines improves dramatically and with new discoveries of gold/silver or gold/copper it means more value per ton of rock.
Rod: Yes with higher prices for all metals, prospective profits will look enormous and make projects easier to finance. There are Chinese and Indian investors actively hunting for new projects to acquire gold in the ground for cash, which is now arguably cheaper than gold bullion futures.
Charles: But if the companies with new discoveries do not get on the radar screens they risk being taken over by larger companies with higher ratings.
Rod: Good point. When markets are inefficient, companies with effective PR and broker representation can attract institutional holders who will then demand critical mass and growth by acquisition. They love liquidity events as it helps them to realise profits. But they will then back the same management in the next deal that’s brought to them.
Charles: Good. So are you saying that the Minesite reader who has the courage to buy these juniors could double or triple his money?
Rod: I think that as gold pushes towards US$1,800 per ounce, quality juniors will likely double or triple within a year until some efficiency comes into the market place.
Charles: Right. That’s more than enough Rod. I will cut it down to size. This chemotherapy really takes it out of me, and I am looking forward to a weekend with my daughter and the grandchildren.
So that is where we were a week ago. Charles was a very capable journalist and insisted on having the last word with his articles. Sadly, he didn’t quite manage with this one. He was a good and fair friend for 30 years and made a valuable contribution to the education of investors about commodities and the companies active in the commodity sectors. I will miss him. He will be hard to replace, as his experience was second to none in mining journalism.
Whither Goest Thou? Charles Wyatt’s Last Words On Gold
By Rod Whyte
Charles Wyatt died on Wednesday, before he could complete an article on which he and I were working together. What follows is a transcript of our discussions on the subject of gold and gold equities, which I offer as a tribute to a veteran mining journalist, Minesite founder, and long-standing friend.
Charles: Look Rod, you’re always banging on about junior gold shares being oversold and too cheap. Spare us your lectures, and do an article for Minesite instead. Just explain the divergence between gold and gold shares in simple terms.
Rod: But you’re asking a multi-million dollar question! Why not get one of the brokers to do it?
Charles: No. They are too ponderous and they extrapolate gfms statistics and take a week. If you do it you can mention some of the better companies you talk about like Pelangio with that nice woman, and not that one run by the Indian bean counter, Moneta.
Rod: Okay. Here goes. Gold bullion has done well, as measured in all currencies but particularly in US dollars, Euro and sterling, against which it is trading at all-time record levels. But note that adjusted for purchasing power parity the 1980 peak of US$850 per ounce would be about US$2,350 today. Even so, gold is now being seen as a currency, a commodity, a store of value and a portable hard asset, and not at all as a “barbarous relic” as some called it in 1980.
Charles interrupts: Put in a plug here for the good guys at gata. Their work insulates us from scare stories that all the gold ever mined is on the surface. Remember today the Central banks are buying not selling.
Rod: I suppose you want to beat up Gordon Brown again for selling most of Britain’s gold at all time low levels?
Charles: We have a moral obligation to remind people as often as possible. Brown was a bloody disaster.
Rod: Well, I agree with Peter Munk, the President of Barrick Gold. There has been a dynamic change from the historic supply/demand equation. Chinese and Indian central banks want to increase the amount of gold they hold as a proportion of their reserve assets and are consistently buying. As are high net worth investors in the brics.
Also, new mine production has for some time been insufficient to replace depletion at older mines and in the last couple of years gold scrap sales – mostly jewellery – have exceeded jewellery demand, which is unprecedented and likely unsustainable. Families cannot sell Grandma’s jewellery twice!
Charles: Okay, that’s enough of that. We all agree gold is going up and not down. Now what about the junior gold companies themselves?
Rod: The thing is, investors in the junior gold exploration sector are a very different species from the major participants in the gold supply/demand equation.
Charles: Go on.
Rod: There are thousands of small companies with exploration properties all over the world, and most are not on investor radar screens. They are usually illiquid, have no broker/analyst following and often rely on the pockets or contacts of their promoters to get noticed.
Charles: But Minesite will put them on the radar screen as long as there are not crooks behind them. There are plenty of good stories to be told and if the chief executive answers his phone we can tell the story – and bear in mind that I want to talk with the chief executive, not brokers or PR pluggers!
Rod: Alright, alright! We’ll try to get the chief execs where we can! But even where they are willing to talk it’s still an uphill battle.
Charles: But why?
Rod: This dynamic has deep roots. In the 40-odd years since Bretton Woods set gold free from its fixed US$35 per ounce, there’s been a consistent correlation between the gold price and gold shares, and for most of this period the shares led the gold price up or down for reasons of leverage. In the last several years, though, that relationship has broken. In the 2008 global financial meltdown investors were desperate to deleverage and raise cash. Fear overcame greed, and buyers disappeared. With sellers dominant, prices collapsed by 70 per cent or even 90 per cent.
Charles: But that was almost three years ago, why have they not recovered? There are plenty of tipsters and newsletter writers out there today promoting the juniors again, even if many are living off long forgotten successes.
Rod: One reason is that, sadly, brokers these days highlight the companies from which they derive their fees. When a broker initiates coverage it means it has signed up a new corporate client. We do not have an efficient or well-informed market for exploration juniors, whether you are talking about Canada, Australia or on Aim, and there’s no real market at all in the usa. It would really help if brokers did peer comparisons for regions to show how much an investor pays to get an ounce of gold relative to capitalisation.
Charles: What about the liquidity of these junior shares?
Rod: Most juniors are illiquid at present and institutional investors cannot trade with, say, £1 million, anywhere near the price on the screen. The average Minesite reader can invest £10,000 and will potentially make tremendous profits when the institutions decide to buy. Some commentators argue that gold exploration juniors are discounting a gold price below US$1,000 per ounce. When sellers become holders, new buyers will push up prices; shares that fell 90 per cent must rise eight or nine times to get back to the previous peak price.
Charles: You have used all this space, Rod, but what is the bottom line? What do you, personally, think is going to happen?
Rod: Well, the quality juniors have now recovered enough to raise money. There is no shortage of available funds, if you dilute the shareholders, and lots of juniors are now running significant drill programs, particularly in West Africa. The likes of Cluff Gold, Pelangio, Legend Gold and Resolute spring to mind. Assay results are coming through which will upgrade and de-risk projects. As new discoveries become common, share prices will up run on discoveries, and soon, on the expectation of discovery.
Assuming gold challenges US$1800 per ounce later this year, investor greed will overcome fear of failure. Companies with new discoveries will become market darlings again and will double or triple. Then nearology will return as brokers draw up regional maps to draw attention to the similarity of the host rock for their client companies in far extended locations. This is happening now in Ghana. Tomorrow it will be Mali and then Burkina Faso. I think that the really smart money is going into png and epithermal plays like mil Resources. Your readers should google the buzz words like epithermal gold or copper/gold porphyry.
Charles: Well at higher gold prices the economics of bringing in new mines improves dramatically and with new discoveries of gold/silver or gold/copper it means more value per ton of rock.
Rod: Yes with higher prices for all metals, prospective profits will look enormous and make projects easier to finance. There are Chinese and Indian investors actively hunting for new projects to acquire gold in the ground for cash, which is now arguably cheaper than gold bullion futures.
Charles: But if the companies with new discoveries do not get on the radar screens they risk being taken over by larger companies with higher ratings.
Rod: Good point. When markets are inefficient, companies with effective PR and broker representation can attract institutional holders who will then demand critical mass and growth by acquisition. They love liquidity events as it helps them to realise profits. But they will then back the same management in the next deal that’s brought to them.
Charles: Good. So are you saying that the Minesite reader who has the courage to buy these juniors could double or triple his money?
Rod: I think that as gold pushes towards US$1,800 per ounce, quality juniors will likely double or triple within a year until some efficiency comes into the market place.
Charles: Right. That’s more than enough Rod. I will cut it down to size. This chemotherapy really takes it out of me, and I am looking forward to a weekend with my daughter and the grandchildren.
So that is where we were a week ago. Charles was a very capable journalist and insisted on having the last word with his articles. Sadly, he didn’t quite manage with this one. He was a good and fair friend for 30 years and made a valuable contribution to the education of investors about commodities and the companies active in the commodity sectors. I will miss him. He will be hard to replace, as his experience was second to none in mining journalism.
mining786
Tape Ball Regular
- Joined
- Feb 13, 2011
- Runs
- 377
The Gold Report: Let's start with politics. In your opinion, would a Republican president in 2012 be good for the gold price?
Byron King: Whether Obama remains in office or a Republican wins the election, it is going to be tough to deal with the inflation and the built-in spending that is driving gold prices up. Republican or Democrat, either way, if you want a stable gold price you are going to be disappointed. If you want to see higher gold prices, you are going to get your wish.
TGR: Do you think we could see dramatically higher inflation?
BK: I think that's already cooked into the pie, yes. For the last 18 months, much of U.S. federal debt has been purchased by the Federal Reserve. It's not people buying U.S. Savings Bonds who are funding the deficit spending by owning the national debt. The Federal Reserve is just issuing new money into the system. That money is floating around the world somewhere and it's coming back in terms of inflation. We see it in the rising prices for energy, especially oil, plus gold, silver and other commodities. We see it in inflation in other currencies and trading zones — the Chinese yuan in Asia, the euro in Europe and even in South America's otherwise strong currencies. These things all reflect the inflation that's coming out of Washington D.C. to fund U.S. deficit spending.
TGR: The CFTC (Commodities Futures Trading Commission) said at the end of June that money managers have slashed their net bullish positions in gold futures to the lowest point in more than four months and silver to the lowest point in more than a year. Do you think that will affect the price given that hedge funds seem to believe in the economic rebound and may be starting to get out of gold and silver?
BK: I think that people trade in and people trade out. What we're seeing is a thought process that says, "We've had a nice run and it's time to take some profits off the table and show some gains to the bottom-line." This is a blip in the long-term upward trend. I go back to the point that inflation is already baked into the pie.
TGR: Gold hit a six-week low to end the second quarter, but was up 5% and led all precious metals during the quarter. Meanwhile, silver was down 7.5% after nine straight quarterly increases. What performance do you expect from both metals in the third quarter?
BK: I think that both will trade in a range without any real breakouts. The world economy isn't panicked enough to drive prices through the roof. But, it also isn't healthy enough for people to decide that they would just as soon liquidate their gold and silver positions and invest that cash somewhere else. That's because the next question is: where is somewhere else? What are the latitude and longitude of "somewhere else" that you would invest if you liquidated?
TGR: You recently wrote in Agora Financial's Daily Resource Hunter that "Smart money is holding gold. Never sell the real metal. Hang tough with the mining company shares." But equities, by and large, have vastly underperformed gold in 2011. Why aren't you telling people to sell?
BK: I was writing that for a retail audience, not for professional traders. When I say, "don't sell the real metal," I mean if you own gold, keep it in your safe deposit box. Real metal is the absolute last thing you want to sell, because looking 2, 5 or 10 years out, you may never ever see it again at current prices, and in the worst case at any price. I think that the scarcity of the physical stuff is that profound, and it's going to be even more profound as the rest of the world begins to catch on.
As far as hanging tough with mining company shares, I mean that, too. Implied in that statement is the idea that you've got to grit your teeth and deal with the fact that mining company shares have lagged the performance of gold over the past couple of years. It's annoying from an investor's standpoint because the mining companies are mining gold, which is going up in price, but so are the companies' costs for energy, labor and other production factors.
I have selectively told people to sell a couple of mining shares in the last six months or so. I got Outstanding Investment readers out of two of the large South African players, AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (AU) and Gold Fields Ltd. (GFI). Still, overall, I'm not telling people to sell gold mining shares because, what do I tell them to do instead? Where do they go with the money? I'm nervous about walking away from the gold miners in this particular precious metal environment.
TGR: You recently spent time touring projects in southern Africa. Did you return from that trip with any new investment ideas that you could share with our readers?
BK: South Africa is investable if you understand the level of risk. The large, deep gold mines have profound problems because they're large and deep. There are limits to how deep you can put human beings underground and have them work. There are limits to what technology can do in those deep, very hot, very stressful environments. When you dig holes three and four km. deep, you get these things called rock bursts where the walls explode inwards because of the pressure of the weight of the rock above. It's very deep, very dangerous mining. I think that within a couple of years, we could see a dramatic falloff in overall gold production out of South Africa, which would affect the world gold price.
In terms of the good news, the best investable item I brought away from two recent trips to South Africa is platinum. South Africa is one of the world’s most significant platinum producers. There's a looming shortage of platinum, which is used in the chemicals industry, in the automotive and electronics industries and in jewelry. It's become an investable item as well, in terms of bullion.
There aren't enough large platinum projects to replace what is being mined out. We could see platinum prices skyrocket. In terms of larger companies that have an acceptable risk profile, I recommend Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd. (IMPUF.PK). I think it's going to do well over the next two or three years.
TGR: Is it on the London stock exchange?
BK: Impala trades on Johannesburg, London and on the Pink Sheets in the U.S.
TGR: Do you have some smaller platinum names?
BK: Another one that an Agora colleague has recommended — he sort of beat me to it — is African Rainbow Minerals Ltd. (ARBWY.PK). It's a mining conglomerate. They mine iron, titanium, coal and platinum. I don't want to say it’s small, because it's a fairly substantial company in South Africa. It is very well run, a solidly positioned company. Impala Platinum and African Rainbow are two nice ways to get exposure in the South African platinum space. You can look elsewhere in the world for platinum, but I think the South African plays are among the best.
TGR: As far as North American companies producing platinum, does it comes down to Stillwater Mining Co. (SWC)?
BK: Yes, in North America there's the Stillwater play. It's a $2.4 billion company that's done well over the past couple of years.
Here's what I think about platinum overall. It gets back to the medium- and long-term future. If someone discovered a platinum deposit tomorrow morning in Montana, Canada or Alaska, how long would it take to get that mine up and running? How long would it take to get the processing system up and running? We're looking at 10 to 15 years.
As platinum goes into shortage in the next few years and prices skyrocket, you want to be positioned in the companies that have the best chance to move quickly. You're looking for the best ideas in the here and now. Those two African plays are at the top of the heap. If you're too nervous about South Africa, then Stillwater will also do fine in a rising price environment.
TGR: In the April 6, 2011 edition of Energy and Scarcity you wrote about Scorpio Mining Corp. (SMNPF.PK). Do you still recommend Scorpio? And, what's the next step for that junior?
BK: I like Scorpio and would still recommend it. Trailing price earnings have gone from 8 to about 12, which is still low. It is a smallish miner, but it's not one of those mining development plays you see all over the landscape. It has a true up-and-running, producing mine. When the company initially built the project, it installed capacity, poured the concrete, did all the design work for future expansion. And the future is now. It's expanding.
When silver and lead zinc prices were higher a couple months ago, Scorpio was up around US$1.60 a share. Now it's in the US$1.45 range. I think it still has an upside for the patient investor. If you're looking for something to hang on to for the next two or three years, I think you could do worse than Scorpio Mining. They mine; they produce a profit. Can you imagine that, a small mining company that produces a profit?
TGR: According to Google Finance, it has a P/E ratio of 5.5.
BK: Going forward, yes. Scorpio is profitable; the numbers appear to be improving and it'll stay profitable. It's going to be selling product into a strong market. As far as I know, the political and the crime issues in Mexico haven't affected Scorpio, but those factors are a caveat on investing in Mexico.
TGR: Are there other precious metals names you could share with our readers?
BK: I just spent a week in Serbia, looking at a company I've followed for a year and a half now called Reservoir Capital Corp. (RSERF.PK). Reservoir is several different things wrapped up in one company. It’s an energy play in terms of hydropower development. But it also controls significant land position in the Balkans, next to what was once the largest copper mine in Europe. Reservoir is spinning off its mineral side into a group called Reservoir Minerals. Right now the way to play it is to buy Reservoir stock until they spin off Reservoir Minerals.
Reservoir has a 20-square-mile position over a known copper district adjacent to a place called Bor, an old mining town in Serbia. Nearby, it has a very strong land position in a historic gold mining district called Deli Jovan. This was the home of several historic gold mines from the early 1900s through the late 1930s. The old, Serbian gold mining company stopped gold mining not because it ran out of gold, but because it ran out of time when World War II came along. It sealed up the mines and the former Yugoslavian government never reopened them. It wasn't part of the five-year plan. Just last week I saw some of the operations. Reservoir and its subsidiary, Reservoir Minerals, have a strong copper and gold development future.
TGR: Are there any ownership security risk in Serbia?
BK: Serbia is a poorly understood place. But, it's working very hard to achieve EU membership and with that comes the legal obligations of having a property system and a title system that meets EU standards.
In terms of legal, claim and title security, the Reservoir people have a very strong relationship with the Serbian government. As an example, Reservoir arranged a meeting with the Serbian Prime Minister for me and a couple of other Reservoir investors. Management has a good relationship with the government.
TGR: Three visits in a year seems like a lot. What’s behind that?
BK: The first visit was to see things. The second time I was invited by Serbia's Minister of Energy to speak at an energy conference in Belgrade. While I was there I went out to see other things that I hadn't seen or hadn't seen enough of the first time around. The third time I led a group of Energy and Scarcity Investor readers to show them what is going on and let them make up their own minds.
TGR: Will the gold assets be rolled into Reservoir Minerals or will they be in another company?
BK: Currently, they are part of Reservoir Minerals. How things will play out is still a bit of an open book. The copper is being developed in cooperation with Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (FCX). Freeport has a huge drilling program going on right now; in fact, the drilling rigs were on site last week during our visit. Reservoir has another joint venture on the gold mining side, with a London-listed company called Orogen Gold Ltd. (LSE
RE). It's a bunch of Irish guys who understand gold mining in this kind of geology.
TGR: Is it part of a greenstone belt?
BK: It's right at the edge of a mineralized Paleozoic gabbro complex. Geologically it's good, solid hard-rock mining. It's right up the alley of these Orogen guys.
TGR: It would probably be very amenable to high gold recoveries.
BK: There's a lot of very good data, so far. You know the old expression, "The best place to build a mine is next to another mine." Well, this place has historical gold production from about 1904 until World War II. In its day, the Deli Jovan gold mines made Serbia one of the wealthiest countries in Europe. By the 1910s, the Kingdom of Serbia was so rich that it made the Austro-Hungarian and the Turkish Empires jealous, which had a lot to do with the origins of World War I. Historically it's a very rich place. Some of the assays from the old historical data on the Deli Jovan mine are up to 200 g/t.
TGR: In a couple of weeks you are scheduled to speak at an Agora Financial investment symposium in Vancouver called Fight or Flight: Your Capital at Risk. What do you plan to talk about there?
BK: My talk is titled "Re-Mining the Wealth of Nations Past; Discovering Assets Hidden by History." I'm going to give several examples of mining or resource plays that were simply lost to history over time, and that are now coming back into vogue. It's the idea of what's old is new again.
TGR: Do you have some parting thoughts on gold and silver and precious metals in general?
BK: Considering the uncertainly of government currencies such as the dollar, the euro, the yen and the yuan, and even commodity currencies like the Canadian dollar, the Russian ruble, the Brazilian real, you must understand the need to have solid exposure to precious metals in your own physical holdings of metal. Take delivery. Don't comingle it in somebody else's vault. That goes for gold, silver and platinum — and invest in mining shares.
I just don't trust the politicians to do the right thing. Nobody truly knows what the right thing is. I don't think the current group of political leaders will be able to steer the ship through the rocks without punching a few holes in the hull. And if you're an investor out there? Well, you may as well have a steerage ticket on the Titanic. There won't be any lifeboats for you. You'll have to come up with your own means of saving yourself.
Byron King: Whether Obama remains in office or a Republican wins the election, it is going to be tough to deal with the inflation and the built-in spending that is driving gold prices up. Republican or Democrat, either way, if you want a stable gold price you are going to be disappointed. If you want to see higher gold prices, you are going to get your wish.
TGR: Do you think we could see dramatically higher inflation?
BK: I think that's already cooked into the pie, yes. For the last 18 months, much of U.S. federal debt has been purchased by the Federal Reserve. It's not people buying U.S. Savings Bonds who are funding the deficit spending by owning the national debt. The Federal Reserve is just issuing new money into the system. That money is floating around the world somewhere and it's coming back in terms of inflation. We see it in the rising prices for energy, especially oil, plus gold, silver and other commodities. We see it in inflation in other currencies and trading zones — the Chinese yuan in Asia, the euro in Europe and even in South America's otherwise strong currencies. These things all reflect the inflation that's coming out of Washington D.C. to fund U.S. deficit spending.
TGR: The CFTC (Commodities Futures Trading Commission) said at the end of June that money managers have slashed their net bullish positions in gold futures to the lowest point in more than four months and silver to the lowest point in more than a year. Do you think that will affect the price given that hedge funds seem to believe in the economic rebound and may be starting to get out of gold and silver?
BK: I think that people trade in and people trade out. What we're seeing is a thought process that says, "We've had a nice run and it's time to take some profits off the table and show some gains to the bottom-line." This is a blip in the long-term upward trend. I go back to the point that inflation is already baked into the pie.
TGR: Gold hit a six-week low to end the second quarter, but was up 5% and led all precious metals during the quarter. Meanwhile, silver was down 7.5% after nine straight quarterly increases. What performance do you expect from both metals in the third quarter?
BK: I think that both will trade in a range without any real breakouts. The world economy isn't panicked enough to drive prices through the roof. But, it also isn't healthy enough for people to decide that they would just as soon liquidate their gold and silver positions and invest that cash somewhere else. That's because the next question is: where is somewhere else? What are the latitude and longitude of "somewhere else" that you would invest if you liquidated?
TGR: You recently wrote in Agora Financial's Daily Resource Hunter that "Smart money is holding gold. Never sell the real metal. Hang tough with the mining company shares." But equities, by and large, have vastly underperformed gold in 2011. Why aren't you telling people to sell?
BK: I was writing that for a retail audience, not for professional traders. When I say, "don't sell the real metal," I mean if you own gold, keep it in your safe deposit box. Real metal is the absolute last thing you want to sell, because looking 2, 5 or 10 years out, you may never ever see it again at current prices, and in the worst case at any price. I think that the scarcity of the physical stuff is that profound, and it's going to be even more profound as the rest of the world begins to catch on.
As far as hanging tough with mining company shares, I mean that, too. Implied in that statement is the idea that you've got to grit your teeth and deal with the fact that mining company shares have lagged the performance of gold over the past couple of years. It's annoying from an investor's standpoint because the mining companies are mining gold, which is going up in price, but so are the companies' costs for energy, labor and other production factors.
I have selectively told people to sell a couple of mining shares in the last six months or so. I got Outstanding Investment readers out of two of the large South African players, AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (AU) and Gold Fields Ltd. (GFI). Still, overall, I'm not telling people to sell gold mining shares because, what do I tell them to do instead? Where do they go with the money? I'm nervous about walking away from the gold miners in this particular precious metal environment.
TGR: You recently spent time touring projects in southern Africa. Did you return from that trip with any new investment ideas that you could share with our readers?
BK: South Africa is investable if you understand the level of risk. The large, deep gold mines have profound problems because they're large and deep. There are limits to how deep you can put human beings underground and have them work. There are limits to what technology can do in those deep, very hot, very stressful environments. When you dig holes three and four km. deep, you get these things called rock bursts where the walls explode inwards because of the pressure of the weight of the rock above. It's very deep, very dangerous mining. I think that within a couple of years, we could see a dramatic falloff in overall gold production out of South Africa, which would affect the world gold price.
In terms of the good news, the best investable item I brought away from two recent trips to South Africa is platinum. South Africa is one of the world’s most significant platinum producers. There's a looming shortage of platinum, which is used in the chemicals industry, in the automotive and electronics industries and in jewelry. It's become an investable item as well, in terms of bullion.
There aren't enough large platinum projects to replace what is being mined out. We could see platinum prices skyrocket. In terms of larger companies that have an acceptable risk profile, I recommend Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd. (IMPUF.PK). I think it's going to do well over the next two or three years.
TGR: Is it on the London stock exchange?
BK: Impala trades on Johannesburg, London and on the Pink Sheets in the U.S.
TGR: Do you have some smaller platinum names?
BK: Another one that an Agora colleague has recommended — he sort of beat me to it — is African Rainbow Minerals Ltd. (ARBWY.PK). It's a mining conglomerate. They mine iron, titanium, coal and platinum. I don't want to say it’s small, because it's a fairly substantial company in South Africa. It is very well run, a solidly positioned company. Impala Platinum and African Rainbow are two nice ways to get exposure in the South African platinum space. You can look elsewhere in the world for platinum, but I think the South African plays are among the best.
TGR: As far as North American companies producing platinum, does it comes down to Stillwater Mining Co. (SWC)?
BK: Yes, in North America there's the Stillwater play. It's a $2.4 billion company that's done well over the past couple of years.
Here's what I think about platinum overall. It gets back to the medium- and long-term future. If someone discovered a platinum deposit tomorrow morning in Montana, Canada or Alaska, how long would it take to get that mine up and running? How long would it take to get the processing system up and running? We're looking at 10 to 15 years.
As platinum goes into shortage in the next few years and prices skyrocket, you want to be positioned in the companies that have the best chance to move quickly. You're looking for the best ideas in the here and now. Those two African plays are at the top of the heap. If you're too nervous about South Africa, then Stillwater will also do fine in a rising price environment.
TGR: In the April 6, 2011 edition of Energy and Scarcity you wrote about Scorpio Mining Corp. (SMNPF.PK). Do you still recommend Scorpio? And, what's the next step for that junior?
BK: I like Scorpio and would still recommend it. Trailing price earnings have gone from 8 to about 12, which is still low. It is a smallish miner, but it's not one of those mining development plays you see all over the landscape. It has a true up-and-running, producing mine. When the company initially built the project, it installed capacity, poured the concrete, did all the design work for future expansion. And the future is now. It's expanding.
When silver and lead zinc prices were higher a couple months ago, Scorpio was up around US$1.60 a share. Now it's in the US$1.45 range. I think it still has an upside for the patient investor. If you're looking for something to hang on to for the next two or three years, I think you could do worse than Scorpio Mining. They mine; they produce a profit. Can you imagine that, a small mining company that produces a profit?
TGR: According to Google Finance, it has a P/E ratio of 5.5.
BK: Going forward, yes. Scorpio is profitable; the numbers appear to be improving and it'll stay profitable. It's going to be selling product into a strong market. As far as I know, the political and the crime issues in Mexico haven't affected Scorpio, but those factors are a caveat on investing in Mexico.
TGR: Are there other precious metals names you could share with our readers?
BK: I just spent a week in Serbia, looking at a company I've followed for a year and a half now called Reservoir Capital Corp. (RSERF.PK). Reservoir is several different things wrapped up in one company. It’s an energy play in terms of hydropower development. But it also controls significant land position in the Balkans, next to what was once the largest copper mine in Europe. Reservoir is spinning off its mineral side into a group called Reservoir Minerals. Right now the way to play it is to buy Reservoir stock until they spin off Reservoir Minerals.
Reservoir has a 20-square-mile position over a known copper district adjacent to a place called Bor, an old mining town in Serbia. Nearby, it has a very strong land position in a historic gold mining district called Deli Jovan. This was the home of several historic gold mines from the early 1900s through the late 1930s. The old, Serbian gold mining company stopped gold mining not because it ran out of gold, but because it ran out of time when World War II came along. It sealed up the mines and the former Yugoslavian government never reopened them. It wasn't part of the five-year plan. Just last week I saw some of the operations. Reservoir and its subsidiary, Reservoir Minerals, have a strong copper and gold development future.
TGR: Are there any ownership security risk in Serbia?
BK: Serbia is a poorly understood place. But, it's working very hard to achieve EU membership and with that comes the legal obligations of having a property system and a title system that meets EU standards.
In terms of legal, claim and title security, the Reservoir people have a very strong relationship with the Serbian government. As an example, Reservoir arranged a meeting with the Serbian Prime Minister for me and a couple of other Reservoir investors. Management has a good relationship with the government.
TGR: Three visits in a year seems like a lot. What’s behind that?
BK: The first visit was to see things. The second time I was invited by Serbia's Minister of Energy to speak at an energy conference in Belgrade. While I was there I went out to see other things that I hadn't seen or hadn't seen enough of the first time around. The third time I led a group of Energy and Scarcity Investor readers to show them what is going on and let them make up their own minds.
TGR: Will the gold assets be rolled into Reservoir Minerals or will they be in another company?
BK: Currently, they are part of Reservoir Minerals. How things will play out is still a bit of an open book. The copper is being developed in cooperation with Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (FCX). Freeport has a huge drilling program going on right now; in fact, the drilling rigs were on site last week during our visit. Reservoir has another joint venture on the gold mining side, with a London-listed company called Orogen Gold Ltd. (LSE
RE). It's a bunch of Irish guys who understand gold mining in this kind of geology.TGR: Is it part of a greenstone belt?
BK: It's right at the edge of a mineralized Paleozoic gabbro complex. Geologically it's good, solid hard-rock mining. It's right up the alley of these Orogen guys.
TGR: It would probably be very amenable to high gold recoveries.
BK: There's a lot of very good data, so far. You know the old expression, "The best place to build a mine is next to another mine." Well, this place has historical gold production from about 1904 until World War II. In its day, the Deli Jovan gold mines made Serbia one of the wealthiest countries in Europe. By the 1910s, the Kingdom of Serbia was so rich that it made the Austro-Hungarian and the Turkish Empires jealous, which had a lot to do with the origins of World War I. Historically it's a very rich place. Some of the assays from the old historical data on the Deli Jovan mine are up to 200 g/t.
TGR: In a couple of weeks you are scheduled to speak at an Agora Financial investment symposium in Vancouver called Fight or Flight: Your Capital at Risk. What do you plan to talk about there?
BK: My talk is titled "Re-Mining the Wealth of Nations Past; Discovering Assets Hidden by History." I'm going to give several examples of mining or resource plays that were simply lost to history over time, and that are now coming back into vogue. It's the idea of what's old is new again.
TGR: Do you have some parting thoughts on gold and silver and precious metals in general?
BK: Considering the uncertainly of government currencies such as the dollar, the euro, the yen and the yuan, and even commodity currencies like the Canadian dollar, the Russian ruble, the Brazilian real, you must understand the need to have solid exposure to precious metals in your own physical holdings of metal. Take delivery. Don't comingle it in somebody else's vault. That goes for gold, silver and platinum — and invest in mining shares.
I just don't trust the politicians to do the right thing. Nobody truly knows what the right thing is. I don't think the current group of political leaders will be able to steer the ship through the rocks without punching a few holes in the hull. And if you're an investor out there? Well, you may as well have a steerage ticket on the Titanic. There won't be any lifeboats for you. You'll have to come up with your own means of saving yourself.
mining786
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I had a think about AGQ, and sold it to buy more CNR the outlook for gold shares looks rosy.
Eagle_Eye
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^ Whats on the horizon for CNR?
mining786
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EE -
This is an excerpt from the chairman's statement:
"The current strategy is to define the size of the gold system on Condor’s concessions within the District. The medium term target is a resource of 2,000,000 oz gold at which time the Board will decide whether there is potential for a significantly larger resource or to focus drilling on a pre-feasibility and bankable feasibility study (“BFS”). The Board is conscious of moving prematurely to a BFS, with associated costs and management time, when there remains the chance of a substantial commercial resource. Shareholders money may be better spent increasing the resource size materially beyond the 2,000,000 oz gold target, however, a decision will have to wait until this target is achieved and the Company and its advisors have a better understanding of the potential of the project."
I think Mark Child is interested in further drilling holes, and growing the size of the resource. I don't want to comment too much on CNR as pia786 initiated coverage on it on here, and he knows it way better than I do.
This is an excerpt from the chairman's statement:
"The current strategy is to define the size of the gold system on Condor’s concessions within the District. The medium term target is a resource of 2,000,000 oz gold at which time the Board will decide whether there is potential for a significantly larger resource or to focus drilling on a pre-feasibility and bankable feasibility study (“BFS”). The Board is conscious of moving prematurely to a BFS, with associated costs and management time, when there remains the chance of a substantial commercial resource. Shareholders money may be better spent increasing the resource size materially beyond the 2,000,000 oz gold target, however, a decision will have to wait until this target is achieved and the Company and its advisors have a better understanding of the potential of the project."
I think Mark Child is interested in further drilling holes, and growing the size of the resource. I don't want to comment too much on CNR as pia786 initiated coverage on it on here, and he knows it way better than I do.
Eagle_Eye
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mining786,
CNR is trading in quite a big range ( 5 - 10p).... even though the potential is high. I have taken the watching from the sidelines approach... I would buy if more drilling news are around the corner...
You may also want to take a look at SRB (You can put it in an ISA too).... go through some of pia's posts as he has provided plenty of coverage on it...... Its stuck in a very tight range, which I prefer until they have proven up their resource.
CNR is trading in quite a big range ( 5 - 10p).... even though the potential is high. I have taken the watching from the sidelines approach... I would buy if more drilling news are around the corner...
You may also want to take a look at SRB (You can put it in an ISA too).... go through some of pia's posts as he has provided plenty of coverage on it...... Its stuck in a very tight range, which I prefer until they have proven up their resource.
mining786
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I have read pia786's posts regarding SRB but I put my money into Orogen Gold instead. The interim results are due Aug 15th.
As for CNR I will just let the pilot of the ship Mark Child take care of things. They only got the concessions in september last year, the way he swapped the grafton shares was just genius, notice aswell how he hasn't bigged up CNR or given people false hope yet has done great thus far. I guess sitting on the sidelines is upto you but I wouldn't be surprised to see CNR taking off and reaching new highs in the upcoming months imo
As for CNR I will just let the pilot of the ship Mark Child take care of things. They only got the concessions in september last year, the way he swapped the grafton shares was just genius, notice aswell how he hasn't bigged up CNR or given people false hope yet has done great thus far. I guess sitting on the sidelines is upto you but I wouldn't be surprised to see CNR taking off and reaching new highs in the upcoming months imo
Eagle_Eye
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Sound Oil delivered unexpected bad news today on a small play... maybe worth a punt after the bears have had their fill...
The bigger plays in Indonesia and Italy to be drilled in Q4....
The bigger plays in Indonesia and Italy to be drilled in Q4....
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CNR - I originally bought at 0.6p and it went to almost 12p within 4 months in 2010.
When I originally bought I thought the story would be El Salvador as they had a gold and silver resource there which could and should be worth 10-20p/share but was and is currently under a mining moratorium.
As it happened within weeks of me buying the CEO pulled off an audacious licence swap in next door Nicaragua with a fast growing mid-sized mining company B2Gold. It was the news on that concession swap which subsequently drove the share price up to 10p as CNR have proved up a 1m oz gold resource in pretty short order with a target of 2m oz within 12-18months.
Added together the Nicaragua and El Salvador potential CNR have the potential to go from having a 2m oz resource to up to 5m oz within 12-18 months.
Their partner in Nicaragua is valued at over $1bn with a 3m oz resource.
CNR is currently valued at around $40-50m with a 2m oz resource.
I think CNR from 5p has the potential to be a 5-10 bagger if they do succeed in proving up two resources of 2m+ oz. Unlike other explorers they look to have a ready buyer in the wings as B2Gold already own 20% of their La India concession and CNR in turn own 20% of one of B2Golds exploration concessions so they have relationship already and B2Gold's mines are within trucking distance of CNR's licences. A deal at some point makes sense and B2Gold are not shy about describing themselves as an acquisition vehicle.
Macquarie recently invested at 9p as did multi-millionaire investor Jim Mellon who is on the Board of a few Gold explorers/miners.
When I originally bought I thought the story would be El Salvador as they had a gold and silver resource there which could and should be worth 10-20p/share but was and is currently under a mining moratorium.
As it happened within weeks of me buying the CEO pulled off an audacious licence swap in next door Nicaragua with a fast growing mid-sized mining company B2Gold. It was the news on that concession swap which subsequently drove the share price up to 10p as CNR have proved up a 1m oz gold resource in pretty short order with a target of 2m oz within 12-18months.
Added together the Nicaragua and El Salvador potential CNR have the potential to go from having a 2m oz resource to up to 5m oz within 12-18 months.
Their partner in Nicaragua is valued at over $1bn with a 3m oz resource.
CNR is currently valued at around $40-50m with a 2m oz resource.
I think CNR from 5p has the potential to be a 5-10 bagger if they do succeed in proving up two resources of 2m+ oz. Unlike other explorers they look to have a ready buyer in the wings as B2Gold already own 20% of their La India concession and CNR in turn own 20% of one of B2Golds exploration concessions so they have relationship already and B2Gold's mines are within trucking distance of CNR's licences. A deal at some point makes sense and B2Gold are not shy about describing themselves as an acquisition vehicle.
Macquarie recently invested at 9p as did multi-millionaire investor Jim Mellon who is on the Board of a few Gold explorers/miners.
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DeadlyVenom
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Don't see the point of 'investing' in these small also ran explorers like SOU, MTA, CAZA, SOLO, NTOG, USOP etc
Prefer to go with something of some real scale targeting new 'provinces' which will potentially interest the majors i.e. billion barrel chasers like
Namibia - CHAR,TRP,GBP
Bahamas - BPC
Falklands - FOGL, BOR
Also I do prefer ones which AREN'T drilling. The biggest risk to your capital comes from actually drilling although that is what tends to attract traders. Go figure.
Prefer to go with something of some real scale targeting new 'provinces' which will potentially interest the majors i.e. billion barrel chasers like
Namibia - CHAR,TRP,GBP
Bahamas - BPC
Falklands - FOGL, BOR
Also I do prefer ones which AREN'T drilling. The biggest risk to your capital comes from actually drilling although that is what tends to attract traders. Go figure.
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DeadlyVenom
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Chance of a quick buck with them I guess, they usually bounce around a bit after some news.
DeadlyVenom
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The same results that were due ages ago? Got tired of waiting for them so sold out hoping to get back in at some point.
Might buy some more again.
mining786
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DeadlyVenom -
A bit of a difficult one to call, but it would surprise me to see the share price move up a big percentage. I can't see it going north of its 52 week high. These small caps are notorious to disappoint when it comes to news. Only very few actually deliver.
A bit of a difficult one to call, but it would surprise me to see the share price move up a big percentage. I can't see it going north of its 52 week high. These small caps are notorious to disappoint when it comes to news. Only very few actually deliver.
I have favoured gold explorers in the gold bull run so far as historically in gold bulls they are the best performers and ultimately they can get bought out for rich premiums by larger players thanks to their improving cashflow in a gold bull environment.
If the advocates for gold buggery are right and the US and Europe financial systems go to hell in a hand basket due to a debt default then it might be worth either having some physical gold or the next best thing current producers. Makes OMI and MWA very interesting.
MWA have results out today which are worth a read. Lots of exploration potential but backed up now by a gold mine producing 50k oz p.a. with extensive mine life thanks to resources of over 2m oz. They should be capable of doing cashflow of $50m p.a. and are valued at about $50m !
If the World does sink into depression/China trips up then all equities would suffer you'd hope likes of OMI and MWA would be able to protect their stock prices by paying out regular dividends from their gold revenues.
It is all a pretty low odds probability as policy makers should have learnt from 2008 and letting Lehmans go which really allowed the **** to hit the fan.
If the advocates for gold buggery are right and the US and Europe financial systems go to hell in a hand basket due to a debt default then it might be worth either having some physical gold or the next best thing current producers. Makes OMI and MWA very interesting.
MWA have results out today which are worth a read. Lots of exploration potential but backed up now by a gold mine producing 50k oz p.a. with extensive mine life thanks to resources of over 2m oz. They should be capable of doing cashflow of $50m p.a. and are valued at about $50m !
If the World does sink into depression/China trips up then all equities would suffer you'd hope likes of OMI and MWA would be able to protect their stock prices by paying out regular dividends from their gold revenues.
It is all a pretty low odds probability as policy makers should have learnt from 2008 and letting Lehmans go which really allowed the **** to hit the fan.
good article in current issue of Shares Mag re Pricing Power
you can download it here :-
http://www.4shared.com/get/4FCWR8Aa/shares_mag_21st_July.html
you can download it here :-
http://www.4shared.com/get/4FCWR8Aa/shares_mag_21st_July.html
mining786
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Condor Resources
Expected Newsflow:
1)Results of 5000 metres of drilling at La India for physical verification purposes plus trenching to be completed during the first half of 2011.
2)An accurate digital map during H1 2011 will help increase the confidence of the location of the veins and make it easier to move the inferred resource to the indicated category.
3)Unfreezing of El Salvador mining and exploration moratorium.
Protests halt gold mining in El Salvador
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E8W3FBDaX3w&feature=player_embedded
Expected Newsflow:
1)Results of 5000 metres of drilling at La India for physical verification purposes plus trenching to be completed during the first half of 2011.
2)An accurate digital map during H1 2011 will help increase the confidence of the location of the veins and make it easier to move the inferred resource to the indicated category.
3)Unfreezing of El Salvador mining and exploration moratorium.
Protests halt gold mining in El Salvador
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E8W3FBDaX3w&feature=player_embedded
mining786
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Condor Resources RNS out
Drilling update on La India
Drilling update on La India
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mining786
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The gold price going from strength to strength. Astonishing!
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mining786
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It will be good to see commentary from pia786 on this.
ElRaja
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hey pia sorry for taking your topic off topic again lols, just needed to pick your brain about a few things...
managed to get a phone interview with mercer in the IM division, was just wondering if u had done a cfa qualification, cos they were gonna ask about that, as i said id rather do a cfa as opposed to an actuarial qualification in the app form. even knowledge you could bestow upon me about cfa qualis would be greatly appreciated.
plus any thing else you think i should mention that might make me sound impressive. thanks a lot pia.
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you mentioned fogl in your post above, its not the type of investment i usually look at, but upon looking at its recent price action which ive been looking at for a bit, there price seems to be hovering near its record lows, i think this might be worth a gamble for two reasons.
one, in expectation of drilling loligo i have no doubt the sp will rise, secondly because they are drilling another spot after loligo in quick succession, i think even if they mess up the first drill the price might not tank completely until results of second drill, so it might be a bit of a get out of jail free card. what you think?
managed to get a phone interview with mercer in the IM division, was just wondering if u had done a cfa qualification, cos they were gonna ask about that, as i said id rather do a cfa as opposed to an actuarial qualification in the app form. even knowledge you could bestow upon me about cfa qualis would be greatly appreciated.
plus any thing else you think i should mention that might make me sound impressive. thanks a lot pia.
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you mentioned fogl in your post above, its not the type of investment i usually look at, but upon looking at its recent price action which ive been looking at for a bit, there price seems to be hovering near its record lows, i think this might be worth a gamble for two reasons.
one, in expectation of drilling loligo i have no doubt the sp will rise, secondly because they are drilling another spot after loligo in quick succession, i think even if they mess up the first drill the price might not tank completely until results of second drill, so it might be a bit of a get out of jail free card. what you think?
Eagle_Eye
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hey pia sorry for taking your topic off topic again lols, just needed to pick your brain about a few things...
managed to get a phone interview with mercer in the IM division, was just wondering if u had done a cfa qualification, cos they were gonna ask about that, as i said id rather do a cfa as opposed to an actuarial qualification in the app form. even knowledge you could bestow upon me about cfa qualis would be greatly appreciated.
plus any thing else you think i should mention that might make me sound impressive. thanks a lot pia.
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you mentioned fogl in your post above, its not the type of investment i usually look at, but upon looking at its recent price action which ive been looking at for a bit, there price seems to be hovering near its record lows, i think this might be worth a gamble for two reasons.
one, in expectation of drilling loligo i have no doubt the sp will rise, secondly because they are drilling another spot after loligo in quick succession, i think even if they mess up the first drill the price might not tank completely until results of second drill, so it might be a bit of a get out of jail free card. what you think?
FOGL rise in 2011 will depend on success of BOR in Q4...
FOGL - Currently at 60p with 50p per share of cash ? Being held back because RAB are it's biggest shareholder and everybody knows RAB are in effect closing down and doing a fire sale of everything. That is actually the opportunity because once that overhang clears the stock could and should rocket to reflect the fundamentals. Goldmans etc have success based targets of £100/share for a geological Chance of Success of 10% i.e. to reflect probability/fundamentals the share price of FOGL should probably be £5-£10 per share rather than £0.60.
In theory.
In theory.
CNR - they are drilling guided by consultants SRK and their $1.2bn partner B2Gold which is mostly likely potential acquirer and they just announced acceleration of drilling campaign today targetting deeper higher grade resources in multiple veins.
Simple story with potentially huge outcome with path to it quite obvious.
Simple story with potentially huge outcome with path to it quite obvious.
The Onion with the best take on the US Debt Default saga
WASHINGTON—Members of the U.S. Congress reported Wednesday they were continuing to carefully debate the issue of whether or not they should allow the country to descend into a roiling economic meltdown of historically dire proportions. “It is a question that, I think, is worthy of serious consideration: Should we take steps to avoid a crippling, decades-long depression that would lead to disastrous consequences on a worldwide scale? Or should we not do that?” asked House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA), adding that arguments could be made for both sides, and that the debate over ensuring America’s financial solvency versus allowing the nation to default on its debt—which would torpedo stock markets, cause mortgage and interests rates to skyrocket, and decimate the value of the U.S. dollar—is “certainly a conversation worth having.” “Obviously, we don’t want to rush to consensus on whether it is or isn’t a good idea to save the American economy and all our respective livelihoods from certain peril until we’ve examined this thorny dilemma from every angle. And if we’re still discussing this matter on Aug. 2, well, then, so be it.” At press time, President Obama said he personally believed the country should not be economically ruined.
http://www.theonion.com/articles/congress-continues-debate-over-whether-or-not-nati,20977/
WASHINGTON—Members of the U.S. Congress reported Wednesday they were continuing to carefully debate the issue of whether or not they should allow the country to descend into a roiling economic meltdown of historically dire proportions. “It is a question that, I think, is worthy of serious consideration: Should we take steps to avoid a crippling, decades-long depression that would lead to disastrous consequences on a worldwide scale? Or should we not do that?” asked House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA), adding that arguments could be made for both sides, and that the debate over ensuring America’s financial solvency versus allowing the nation to default on its debt—which would torpedo stock markets, cause mortgage and interests rates to skyrocket, and decimate the value of the U.S. dollar—is “certainly a conversation worth having.” “Obviously, we don’t want to rush to consensus on whether it is or isn’t a good idea to save the American economy and all our respective livelihoods from certain peril until we’ve examined this thorny dilemma from every angle. And if we’re still discussing this matter on Aug. 2, well, then, so be it.” At press time, President Obama said he personally believed the country should not be economically ruined.
http://www.theonion.com/articles/congress-continues-debate-over-whether-or-not-nati,20977/
VAL - that looks excellent news, proof of concept with Oxford University of cancer fighting therapeutic. Still very early stage but should have potential partners beating a path to their door surely?
http://fool.uk-wire.com/Article.aspx?id=201107280700102207L
Successful Progress in Preclinical Study of Lead Therapeutic Compound VAL201
in Collaboration with Oxford University
VAL201 shown to prevent proliferative tissue growth in live studies with reduced side effects
http://fool.uk-wire.com/Article.aspx?id=201107280700102207L
Successful Progress in Preclinical Study of Lead Therapeutic Compound VAL201
in Collaboration with Oxford University
VAL201 shown to prevent proliferative tissue growth in live studies with reduced side effects
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LKI - stunning initial harvest results with yields up 100%. The chart was already looking fantastic and they are valued at a fraction of their Ukraine comparitors so this could move big pretty soon.
http://fool.uk-wire.com/Article.aspx?id=201107280700072103L
Southern harvest completed with dramatically improved yields
http://fool.uk-wire.com/Article.aspx?id=201107280700072103L
Southern harvest completed with dramatically improved yields
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AGL - have mentioned it before here. It announces results today, headlining with their cancer technologies which looks potentially amazing CTC's Circulating Tumour Cells based diagnostics. Johnson & Johnson paid $200m for a US research company in that field so PArsortix could be massive for sub £10m AGL IF it works.
Am buying a position today because in todays release it looks like they are getting on the front foot...
Please note that following the release of the ANGLE plc Preliminary results there will be a briefing for Analysts at 10am and a Private Client Broker Lunch at 12:30 in the offices of Buchanan Communications, 107 Cheapside, London
tomorrow (Friday 29 July 2011)
Parsortix Cancer Diagnostics - gaining momentum
· During the year, ANGLE's 80% subsidiary Parsortix deployed its cell separation device, already proven for foetal cells, to capture cancer cells in blood. Successful initial findings were announced on 28 June 2011.
· Fundraising of £1.25 million announced on 15 July 2011 provides funding to validate the initial findings and progress development of the separation device. If successful, the Directors believe that ANGLE will have a major opportunity to develop a patent protected cancer diagnostic device for the capture of circulating tumour cells in cancer patients, which will address a key medical requirement.
Matrix have a DCF valuation of AGL of over 120p/share versus current 28p share price.
Am buying a position today because in todays release it looks like they are getting on the front foot...
Please note that following the release of the ANGLE plc Preliminary results there will be a briefing for Analysts at 10am and a Private Client Broker Lunch at 12:30 in the offices of Buchanan Communications, 107 Cheapside, London
tomorrow (Friday 29 July 2011)
Parsortix Cancer Diagnostics - gaining momentum
· During the year, ANGLE's 80% subsidiary Parsortix deployed its cell separation device, already proven for foetal cells, to capture cancer cells in blood. Successful initial findings were announced on 28 June 2011.
· Fundraising of £1.25 million announced on 15 July 2011 provides funding to validate the initial findings and progress development of the separation device. If successful, the Directors believe that ANGLE will have a major opportunity to develop a patent protected cancer diagnostic device for the capture of circulating tumour cells in cancer patients, which will address a key medical requirement.
Matrix have a DCF valuation of AGL of over 120p/share versus current 28p share price.
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Eagle_Eye
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pia - The VAL RNS provides no real insight into the study that was carried out..... We just have to take their word for how successful it is.
Eagle_Eye
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Gone through VAL May presentation - some figures on page 12 about val201... decreased tumour mass in mice ( I presume). Study size is very small though. This ofcourse must be an earlier study and not the one being referred to in the RNS.
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I imagine the model they are referring to is still mice/rats.
Any progress at this stage is good in my book. We are looking for share price nirvana of getting into clinical trials or a big partner to fund that so I don't care too much about ultimate successful. This is a greater fool game re-run of SAR hopefully. If it gets some dopey press coverage tonight you might be able to sell tomorrow morning. Never been investment in my eyes just a trading punt.
Any progress at this stage is good in my book. We are looking for share price nirvana of getting into clinical trials or a big partner to fund that so I don't care too much about ultimate successful. This is a greater fool game re-run of SAR hopefully. If it gets some dopey press coverage tonight you might be able to sell tomorrow morning. Never been investment in my eyes just a trading punt.
mining786
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Why would you buy something that you do not really understand?
If you are hoping to see a SAR type rise you are probably not going to get one. The market sentiment in my view at that time was a lot different to how things are now. The U.S debt ceiling worries, and whether they are going to go into default or not. People not throwing money into stocks. I doubt it you will ever see a SAR type rise setting the bar a bit too high pal but time will tell.
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