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Contact the PP Team
Buying shares?
- Thread starter DeadlyVenom
- Start date
mining786
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VAL got another mention in Bulfords update. It maybe isn't a get rich over-night share, but it could come good in time doesn't look like a bad company. I will hold for medium/long term.
mining786
Tape Ball Regular
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Weatherly International
Minesite investor presentation July 2011
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D0IRcXJR40s
Minesite investor presentation July 2011
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D0IRcXJR40s
mining786
Tape Ball Regular
- Joined
- Feb 13, 2011
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valirx
Another small cap company that did well today was ValiRx (LON:VAL), whose shares soared 25.5 per cent at 0.87 pence in afternoon trade.
The buying spree came after ValiRx announced that a study conducted in collaboration with Oxford University found that one of its lead therapeutics might be effective in treating a type of prostate cancer.
According to the firm, the preclinical study has firmly established a potentially important role for the drug, VAL201, in treating hormone-induced refractory prostate cancer.
http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk...-royal-dutch-shell-sarantel-valirx-31267.html
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Valirx directors buy 2.8 mln shares at 0.63p2011-07-14 by Jamie Ashcroft
AIM-listed biotech firm Valirx (LON:VAL) told investors that four of its directors have been buying shares in the company.
In total the directors bought 2.8 million shares at 0.63 pence each.
In the most significant transaction chief executive Dr Satu Vainikka bought 1.23 million shares, taking her total holding to 17.8 million shares which equates to 1.71 percent of the company.
Gerry Desler, Valirx chief financial officer, bought 538,770 shares and he now holds 6.63 million shares, representing 0.64 percent of the company.
Non-executive directors George Morris and Kevin Alexander also bought 538,770 shares each. Morris now has 11.9 million shares, 1.14 percent of the company, and Alexander has 3.97 million shares representing 0.38 percent.
Valirx is developing a drug platform to silence rebellious genes that cause cancer and other diseases, while creating a potentially revenue-generating testing business.
The company made quite a splash earlier this year as its share price ran right the way up to 1.8 pence from 0.25 pence - a rise of over 600 per cent. On the back of this, the company was able to carry out a placing at 0.6 pence a share, raising £3.3 million.
This should see its two key potential cancer treatments - VAL101 and VAL201 - through the pre-clinical phase of development and into human trials.
VAL101 is based on the something called GeneICE, which is a tool for silencing rebellious genes. In that respect it is similar to the cutting siRNA technologies being used to target cancers. However according to Valirx GeneICE has the potential to be more specific, longer-acting and carries with it fewer side-effects.
Meanwhile VAL201 has being developed to target refractory prostate cancer, where there is huge unmet medical need.
http://www.proactiveinvestors.com.h...rx-directors-buy-2-8-mln-shares-at-0-63p.html
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KljYkLZGd9E
Another small cap company that did well today was ValiRx (LON:VAL), whose shares soared 25.5 per cent at 0.87 pence in afternoon trade.
The buying spree came after ValiRx announced that a study conducted in collaboration with Oxford University found that one of its lead therapeutics might be effective in treating a type of prostate cancer.
According to the firm, the preclinical study has firmly established a potentially important role for the drug, VAL201, in treating hormone-induced refractory prostate cancer.
http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk...-royal-dutch-shell-sarantel-valirx-31267.html
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Valirx directors buy 2.8 mln shares at 0.63p2011-07-14 by Jamie Ashcroft
AIM-listed biotech firm Valirx (LON:VAL) told investors that four of its directors have been buying shares in the company.
In total the directors bought 2.8 million shares at 0.63 pence each.
In the most significant transaction chief executive Dr Satu Vainikka bought 1.23 million shares, taking her total holding to 17.8 million shares which equates to 1.71 percent of the company.
Gerry Desler, Valirx chief financial officer, bought 538,770 shares and he now holds 6.63 million shares, representing 0.64 percent of the company.
Non-executive directors George Morris and Kevin Alexander also bought 538,770 shares each. Morris now has 11.9 million shares, 1.14 percent of the company, and Alexander has 3.97 million shares representing 0.38 percent.
Valirx is developing a drug platform to silence rebellious genes that cause cancer and other diseases, while creating a potentially revenue-generating testing business.
The company made quite a splash earlier this year as its share price ran right the way up to 1.8 pence from 0.25 pence - a rise of over 600 per cent. On the back of this, the company was able to carry out a placing at 0.6 pence a share, raising £3.3 million.
This should see its two key potential cancer treatments - VAL101 and VAL201 - through the pre-clinical phase of development and into human trials.
VAL101 is based on the something called GeneICE, which is a tool for silencing rebellious genes. In that respect it is similar to the cutting siRNA technologies being used to target cancers. However according to Valirx GeneICE has the potential to be more specific, longer-acting and carries with it fewer side-effects.
Meanwhile VAL201 has being developed to target refractory prostate cancer, where there is huge unmet medical need.
http://www.proactiveinvestors.com.h...rx-directors-buy-2-8-mln-shares-at-0-63p.html
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KljYkLZGd9E
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Eagle_Eye
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- Jan 11, 2010
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- 9,954
pia- whats your views on BMR and Masoud Alikhani? High NAV on paper but constant slippage in deadlines....
BMR I think he is a promoter and the asset never looked that good to me and the shareholder base seemed very poor quality.
Also it is base metals very economically dependent.
I have big preference for precious metals exactly because the economic picture is far too cloudy and PMs give some exposure either way.
Also it is base metals very economically dependent.
I have big preference for precious metals exactly because the economic picture is far too cloudy and PMs give some exposure either way.
TPJ a good/bad RNS late on a Friday
Bad :- shows Management in a bad light that they try to bury 'bad' news late on a Friday afternoon when the City won't be taking as much notice, pretty amateurish error from the young CEO but that comes with youth and he should have been better advised by his NomAd/Non-Execs.
Bad :- it is one of the few projects TPJ were operators of so doesn't look great.
Good :- There is still some hope for the Vietnam project as they have intersected some gold mineralisation just not hit the hot spots so need to reassess their geological interpretation.
Good :- the price decline of 20%+ seems overdone for a project which is one of 5 and thus looks a short term over-reaction albeit Management deserve to get a hammering for the late Friday release.
I would expect continued short term follow through on Monday maybe even down to to 4's?
But I'll be picking up more later Monday/Tuesday.
Good :- The selling late on Friday was obviously small time inexperienced punters the so called 'odd lot' sellers e.g. there were trades in 2,134 shares ! and 13,824 shares towards the end. These sort of 'odd lot' traders are usually seen as a contra-indicator as they clearly haven't got a clue what they are doing. Clever/Institutional traders tend to deal in even lot sizes.
Bad :- shows Management in a bad light that they try to bury 'bad' news late on a Friday afternoon when the City won't be taking as much notice, pretty amateurish error from the young CEO but that comes with youth and he should have been better advised by his NomAd/Non-Execs.
Bad :- it is one of the few projects TPJ were operators of so doesn't look great.
Good :- There is still some hope for the Vietnam project as they have intersected some gold mineralisation just not hit the hot spots so need to reassess their geological interpretation.
Good :- the price decline of 20%+ seems overdone for a project which is one of 5 and thus looks a short term over-reaction albeit Management deserve to get a hammering for the late Friday release.
I would expect continued short term follow through on Monday maybe even down to to 4's?
But I'll be picking up more later Monday/Tuesday.
Good :- The selling late on Friday was obviously small time inexperienced punters the so called 'odd lot' sellers e.g. there were trades in 2,134 shares ! and 13,824 shares towards the end. These sort of 'odd lot' traders are usually seen as a contra-indicator as they clearly haven't got a clue what they are doing. Clever/Institutional traders tend to deal in even lot sizes.
mining786
Tape Ball Regular
- Joined
- Feb 13, 2011
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Weatherly International
Ambrian target price is 19.7p CEO says ambrian are being a little bit conservative.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ff6Qy5ieDwM
Ambrian target price is 19.7p CEO says ambrian are being a little bit conservative.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ff6Qy5ieDwM
LKI - chart and 'mood music' from the company looks/looked excellent so last nights Edison note reducing EPS estimates from 1p to 0.4p (60% downgrade) was a bit concerning at first glance. Apparently costs have ballooned due to oil price inputs which will impact profitability somewhat on P&L measures such as PBT, however the cashflow is the important thing for share/company owners and that is only being reduced from $15m to $12m (20% downgrade). With LKI currently valued at about £30m or an EV of $50-60m that equates to an EV/EBITDA of 4-5x which given the strategic value of their landholding is far too cheap in my book.
TPJ - on balance and after further consideration I am now seeing Friday and the upcoming Monday fall in TPJ as positives. The share has gone down on sentiment and not any rational view of the fundamentals so on that basis the stock will be 'on sale' Monday and I love picking up bargains in the sales. I'll probably allow the first phase of selling to abate and consider buying either at 4's or 8.30am whichever comes first.
TPJ - interesting chart analysis from advfn here
Today (Monday) is August 1st and coincides with the 'apex' of the triangulation pattern identified a few weeks back. My reading of the analysis is that despite a lower open we should see a 'price reversal' on Monday and the stock should end higher.
Today (Monday) is August 1st and coincides with the 'apex' of the triangulation pattern identified a few weeks back. My reading of the analysis is that despite a lower open we should see a 'price reversal' on Monday and the stock should end higher.
tom winnifriths weekend editorial on the US debt ceiling fudge
The Last Ditch Fudge
Meanwhile all eyes are on Washington. I have absolutely no doubt that by Tuesday the debt ceiling will be lifted. The US Government will still be able to service its $14.3 trillion debt and write its pay cheques. The current suggestion is that by agreeing to reduce spending by $1 trillion a year Obama will be allowed a new debt ceiling of $17.7 trillion. Why will he need a higher debt ceiling after such big cuts (which, by the way, he will not deliver in full)? Becuase he will still be running a vast budget deficit. In two or three years the ceiling will have to be lifted once again. And what you need to do is to put this into the context of US GDP.
To join the Euro ( not somethuing even Obama is mad enough to want to do) you had to have a Debt to GDP ratio of 60% ( or in the case of Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain, lie that you had such a ratio). If you get past 100% then you are, according to the OECD, in deep trouble. Greece is now at 150% ( and heading higher) and it will need a third bailout soon and is now defaulting on its bonds and its bonds are junk rated ( having been AAA rated two years ago). So where is the US? I quote Terry Smith of FundSmith:
America’s creditworthiness is already under some question given the wrangling over the debt ceiling and the threat of downgrades, but there seems to be an element of a phoney war about the reporting of this, as though a catastrophic loss of creditworthiness by America is an interesting theoretical possibility but can’t actually happen.
In some ways, it is hardly surprising that America’s creditworthiness is in doubt as it is the only major economy where government spending as a percentage of GDP has risen since the onset of the crisis. No austerity measures there yet.
But what is the level of US debt to GDP? I find the following facts about the calculation of US GDP astounding:
• In 2009, reported US GDP was $14,119bn.
• If an American owns his or her own home outright, no mortgage or rent is paid. But GDP accounts “impute” a notional rent for homeowner-owned properties. In 2009, this “imputed rent of owner-occupied properties” was $1,226bn. This is money that doesn’t actually exist.
• If a bank provides free services to Americans (cash-cards, cheque account etc), a notional value is attached to this service on the basis of ‘what it would cost if you were charged for it’. In 2009, these “financial services furnished without payment” totalled $460bn. Again, this is money that doesn’t actually exist.
• Miscellaneous other imputations added a further $588bn to 2009 GDP.
• Excluding these non-existent imputations, GDP in 2009 was $11,846bn, not $14,119bn.
Put another way, 16.1% of American GDP doesn’t actually exist. This means that the reported debt/GDP ratio is significantly higher than the official figure. America’s ability to service its debts is not based upon a ratio such as debt/GDP utilising spurious statistics. It is based upon reality. And that reality may be far worse than the official statistics would lead you to believe. Given this I would expect the sovereign debt crisis to reach its crescendo in America and for the outcome to be far worse than currently expected.
Now do the maths. Assume that Smith is wrong and we use the headline number and that US GDP is growing at 1% a year between 2009 and 2014 ( generous I would suggest). At that point you have GDP of $14.9 trillion and debt of $17.7 trillion so the ratio is c120%. That makes it in a bit pof a worse position than Italy at 118%. If Smuith is correct ( and I am afraid that he is) then the ratio moves to 142% which is where Greece was a couple of months ago.
So the good news is that the US will not default on its bonds on Tuesday. The bad news is that it is a couple of years away from having a debt to GDP ratio like that of Greece today. In the West we may view the fudge as a triumph but that is NOT how the rest of the world (notably the Chinese and Arabs who own most American Government bonds) view the position. For those with money the US Government is spending way beyond its means and if that was not a reason to wish to reduce their dollar exposure Friday's GDP data was. The fact is that the US economy is recovering only slowly and in a completely jobless way. As such it is only a matter of time befe QE3 ( however it is named) starts again. As such it is inconceivable to me that the US will retain its AAA rating for long and frankly the downgrade could come at any moment. When that happens - especially if it is accompanied by more Euro weakness ( which seems to be happening as we speak - have a look at Italian and Spanish bond yields last week) gold is heading through $1800 very quickly indeed.
We are set for interesting weeks ahead.
Best wishes
Tom
The Last Ditch Fudge
Meanwhile all eyes are on Washington. I have absolutely no doubt that by Tuesday the debt ceiling will be lifted. The US Government will still be able to service its $14.3 trillion debt and write its pay cheques. The current suggestion is that by agreeing to reduce spending by $1 trillion a year Obama will be allowed a new debt ceiling of $17.7 trillion. Why will he need a higher debt ceiling after such big cuts (which, by the way, he will not deliver in full)? Becuase he will still be running a vast budget deficit. In two or three years the ceiling will have to be lifted once again. And what you need to do is to put this into the context of US GDP.
To join the Euro ( not somethuing even Obama is mad enough to want to do) you had to have a Debt to GDP ratio of 60% ( or in the case of Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain, lie that you had such a ratio). If you get past 100% then you are, according to the OECD, in deep trouble. Greece is now at 150% ( and heading higher) and it will need a third bailout soon and is now defaulting on its bonds and its bonds are junk rated ( having been AAA rated two years ago). So where is the US? I quote Terry Smith of FundSmith:
America’s creditworthiness is already under some question given the wrangling over the debt ceiling and the threat of downgrades, but there seems to be an element of a phoney war about the reporting of this, as though a catastrophic loss of creditworthiness by America is an interesting theoretical possibility but can’t actually happen.
In some ways, it is hardly surprising that America’s creditworthiness is in doubt as it is the only major economy where government spending as a percentage of GDP has risen since the onset of the crisis. No austerity measures there yet.
But what is the level of US debt to GDP? I find the following facts about the calculation of US GDP astounding:
• In 2009, reported US GDP was $14,119bn.
• If an American owns his or her own home outright, no mortgage or rent is paid. But GDP accounts “impute” a notional rent for homeowner-owned properties. In 2009, this “imputed rent of owner-occupied properties” was $1,226bn. This is money that doesn’t actually exist.
• If a bank provides free services to Americans (cash-cards, cheque account etc), a notional value is attached to this service on the basis of ‘what it would cost if you were charged for it’. In 2009, these “financial services furnished without payment” totalled $460bn. Again, this is money that doesn’t actually exist.
• Miscellaneous other imputations added a further $588bn to 2009 GDP.
• Excluding these non-existent imputations, GDP in 2009 was $11,846bn, not $14,119bn.
Put another way, 16.1% of American GDP doesn’t actually exist. This means that the reported debt/GDP ratio is significantly higher than the official figure. America’s ability to service its debts is not based upon a ratio such as debt/GDP utilising spurious statistics. It is based upon reality. And that reality may be far worse than the official statistics would lead you to believe. Given this I would expect the sovereign debt crisis to reach its crescendo in America and for the outcome to be far worse than currently expected.
Now do the maths. Assume that Smith is wrong and we use the headline number and that US GDP is growing at 1% a year between 2009 and 2014 ( generous I would suggest). At that point you have GDP of $14.9 trillion and debt of $17.7 trillion so the ratio is c120%. That makes it in a bit pof a worse position than Italy at 118%. If Smuith is correct ( and I am afraid that he is) then the ratio moves to 142% which is where Greece was a couple of months ago.
So the good news is that the US will not default on its bonds on Tuesday. The bad news is that it is a couple of years away from having a debt to GDP ratio like that of Greece today. In the West we may view the fudge as a triumph but that is NOT how the rest of the world (notably the Chinese and Arabs who own most American Government bonds) view the position. For those with money the US Government is spending way beyond its means and if that was not a reason to wish to reduce their dollar exposure Friday's GDP data was. The fact is that the US economy is recovering only slowly and in a completely jobless way. As such it is only a matter of time befe QE3 ( however it is named) starts again. As such it is inconceivable to me that the US will retain its AAA rating for long and frankly the downgrade could come at any moment. When that happens - especially if it is accompanied by more Euro weakness ( which seems to be happening as we speak - have a look at Italian and Spanish bond yields last week) gold is heading through $1800 very quickly indeed.
We are set for interesting weeks ahead.
Best wishes
Tom
ORCP
Company/Sector Comment
Oracle Coalfields (ORCP)- Please
note Libertas Capital Corporate
Finance Ltd are broker and nomad to
this company
Their new Chairman used to have regional responsibility for
Pakistan for Royal Dutch Shell, and as President of Shell Canada
was responsible for Shell’s oil sands open pit mining activities. Just
the sort of chap one needs for a Pakistani open pit coal project.
As the Chief Executive says “Adrian's appointment as Chairman is
an important corporate development at Oracle and he brings us a
step closer to first production of coal in 2013.
http://minesite.com/media/pub/var/release_downloadable_file/32272.pdf
Company/Sector Comment
Oracle Coalfields (ORCP)- Please
note Libertas Capital Corporate
Finance Ltd are broker and nomad to
this company
Their new Chairman used to have regional responsibility for
Pakistan for Royal Dutch Shell, and as President of Shell Canada
was responsible for Shell’s oil sands open pit mining activities. Just
the sort of chap one needs for a Pakistani open pit coal project.
As the Chief Executive says “Adrian's appointment as Chairman is
an important corporate development at Oracle and he brings us a
step closer to first production of coal in 2013.
http://minesite.com/media/pub/var/release_downloadable_file/32272.pdf
Bought a bit more SRB today from SHE proceeds. Looks like odd lot sellers were taking it down.
At 24p looks a bargain. (Mkt Cap £15m with Net Assets of over $40m)
Eldorado a $10bn Canadian miner paid 30p+ for their shares.
I think it could be very analogous situation to SHE actually. Undervalued and Unloved for a long time and Management just decide to sell up for a nice 100%+ premium to a bigger operator. Although given the Net Assets , Mining Licence and overall strategic position I'd be disappointed with 50p, this is worth 100p+ IMO
At 24p looks a bargain. (Mkt Cap £15m with Net Assets of over $40m)
Eldorado a $10bn Canadian miner paid 30p+ for their shares.
I think it could be very analogous situation to SHE actually. Undervalued and Unloved for a long time and Management just decide to sell up for a nice 100%+ premium to a bigger operator. Although given the Net Assets , Mining Licence and overall strategic position I'd be disappointed with 50p, this is worth 100p+ IMO
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Brilliant news overnight in Oz for GBP Global Petroleum, which despite the name is just a minnow small cap oil exploration company however they have shown the size of their ambition by appointing a new CEO tonight who seems to have a great pedigree especially in International Oil M&A/Partnerships. GBP looks massively cheap anyway given the recent Independent Report which valued the assets they are currently acquiring in Namibia as worth 35p/share compared with current 16p/share price in London. I have put an order in to buy some of the Australian line at 24c (equivalent to about 15p in Sterling terms) whilst the market is still asleep on this. I expect the news will be taken well in London and the UK price will be up when UK hears the news in a few hours time.
The new CEO is Peter Hill who was most recently Global Head of M&A at Statoil.
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110802/pdf/4204vqkthnhw7v.pdf
The new CEO is Peter Hill who was most recently Global Head of M&A at Statoil.
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110802/pdf/4204vqkthnhw7v.pdf
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Eagle_Eye
ODI Debutant
- Joined
- Jan 11, 2010
- Runs
- 9,954
Negative Markets sentiment has swallowed up GBP news!!
Gold is getting extraordinary. Refer back to my post 1283
http://www.pakpassion.net/ppforum/showpost.php?p=3991377&postcount=1283
I still think medium to long term explorers is the best and most highly geared play to rising gold.
In short term I am adding producers such as MWA, OMI.
http://www.pakpassion.net/ppforum/showpost.php?p=3991377&postcount=1283
I still think medium to long term explorers is the best and most highly geared play to rising gold.
In short term I am adding producers such as MWA, OMI.
Eagle_Eye
ODI Debutant
- Joined
- Jan 11, 2010
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- 9,954
MWA close to its 52 week low!!
pia bit more commentary on MWA would be appreciated.
pia bit more commentary on MWA would be appreciated.
At 5p MWA is valued at about £35m
It has 3 major assets and some other peripheral assets which may also have some option value.
1. Freda Rebecca Gold Mine in Zimbabwe - it has a 2m oz resource and is currently producing 50k oz per annum. Assuming a cash cost per ounce of $700 it should be earning annualised revenues equivalent to $50m (£30m) over the next full year. Valuing the company on about 1x cashflow !
2. Zani Kodo Gold project in DRC Congo - it has current resource proved up of 1.4m oz having drilled a strike length of 1.4km with a further 5-7km still to drill. There are other quoted DRC explorers quoted in Toronto valued at $40m (Kilo) and $200m (Loncor). there has been talk of MWA demonstrating value to the market by splitting off Zani Kodo into a separate listing because it obviously isn't being recognised within the current MWA share price.
3. Bindura Nickel Corporation in Zimbabwe - currently a mothballed mine and smelting operation in Zimbabwe but once financing is secured and the mine/smelter re-start operations it has the potential to throw off $50m+ cash per annum
Adding it all together and being really conservative I would say discounting BNC and other peripheral assets completely.
Freda Rebecca on 1x cashflow $50m + Zani Kodo $50m ? should be worth about 10p per share minimum right now.
IF Mugabe dies AND BNC comes back into operation I would expect the stock to trade over 20p in medium term. Ambrian Partners have a current 20p target.
The reason most often given for the low valuation of MWA is the political risk in Zimbabwe but even comparing it with similar Zimbabwe/Congo businesses it is being undervalued so that can not be only reason. I suspect some of the reason has to be down to Management failure to deliver on the ground to some extent although they operate in a tough environment. They need to deliver and continue to deliver before market will forgive them. I'd love to get 10 minutes in a room with them and give them some ****.
I hope to attend the next AGM.
It has 3 major assets and some other peripheral assets which may also have some option value.
1. Freda Rebecca Gold Mine in Zimbabwe - it has a 2m oz resource and is currently producing 50k oz per annum. Assuming a cash cost per ounce of $700 it should be earning annualised revenues equivalent to $50m (£30m) over the next full year. Valuing the company on about 1x cashflow !
2. Zani Kodo Gold project in DRC Congo - it has current resource proved up of 1.4m oz having drilled a strike length of 1.4km with a further 5-7km still to drill. There are other quoted DRC explorers quoted in Toronto valued at $40m (Kilo) and $200m (Loncor). there has been talk of MWA demonstrating value to the market by splitting off Zani Kodo into a separate listing because it obviously isn't being recognised within the current MWA share price.
3. Bindura Nickel Corporation in Zimbabwe - currently a mothballed mine and smelting operation in Zimbabwe but once financing is secured and the mine/smelter re-start operations it has the potential to throw off $50m+ cash per annum
Adding it all together and being really conservative I would say discounting BNC and other peripheral assets completely.
Freda Rebecca on 1x cashflow $50m + Zani Kodo $50m ? should be worth about 10p per share minimum right now.
IF Mugabe dies AND BNC comes back into operation I would expect the stock to trade over 20p in medium term. Ambrian Partners have a current 20p target.
The reason most often given for the low valuation of MWA is the political risk in Zimbabwe but even comparing it with similar Zimbabwe/Congo businesses it is being undervalued so that can not be only reason. I suspect some of the reason has to be down to Management failure to deliver on the ground to some extent although they operate in a tough environment. They need to deliver and continue to deliver before market will forgive them. I'd love to get 10 minutes in a room with them and give them some ****.
I hope to attend the next AGM.
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Another explorer/producer to keep an eye on is PGL Peninsular Gold a Malaysian explorer/producer.
This is Tom Bulford's write up about 9 months back.
All over the world old gold mines are being brought back to life. Long forgotten and neglected, flooded, overrun by the jungle and fallen into decay they nonetheless represent an enticing proposition at today’s record gold price. Few though have quite such a history as the Raub mine in central Malaysia.
It has a dark history of plunder and neglect. With joyous early developers being driven away by invading armies and a devastating collapse in the gold market.
Today though, with gold fetching $1,300/oz, one small gold miner has returned to the Raub district. And could be about to restore a mythic mine to its glory days – transforming the miner in the process.
How a gold mine achieved mythic status
In the early nineteenth century, according to folk tales, an old man and his two sons discovered gold fields while walking in an area about 100 km north of Kuala Lumpur. As the story goes, the men claimed the fields were so rich in gold that it could be scooped out of the earth by the handful. The town and the district soon became known by the Malay word raub, meaning scoop.
The news travelled as far as Australia, where a similarity was noted between the type of gold deposit found in the spine that runs through the Malay peninsula and in the gold fields of Victoria. The Brisbane based Raub syndicate was awarded a concession. And William Bibby, of the well known Liverpool family, was engaged by the syndicate and sent out to Malaysia.
Bibby prospected along the hills north of Kuala Lumpur and in 1893 stumbled across a particularly rich seam. He made his headquarters here at Bukit Koman and set about building the mine. It became a huge enterprise. Malaysia’s first power plant was built specifically for the mine which, by 1930, was employing eight thousand people.
But this week I met Dato’Sri Andrew Tai Keow Kam, Chairman, Chief Executive and major shareholder of Peninsular Gold (PGL), which has the mine today and he told me a little of the darker side of the mine’s history.
The dark tale of the forgotten gold mine
First he showed me photographs of the gold leaving the mine on the back of elephants and a scorecard detailing the results of a cricket match played in 1897. Colonial life was at its height. ‘After the match upon the first day a dinner was given by Mr. Bibby at his Bungalow, at which about 45 covers were laid and a “sing-song” afterwards was kept up until the small hours of the morning; a most enjoyable evening was spent.’
But the fun stopped when the Japanese invaded the Malay peninsula in 1941. The workers abandoned the mine, sabotaging the machinery as they hurried away. The Japanese caught the mine’s manager, took him to Changi jail in Singapore and demanded to know where the richest seams of gold lay. Refusing to reveal the secret, he was tortured and eventually executed.
After the war the Australians returned and mining resumed but in 1962, with gold fetching just $30 per ounce, it became uneconomic and was closed down – having yielded more than one million ounces of gold since 1889.
At $30/oz the mine certainly would not make a profit today. On top of a $50m investment in processing plant the mine’s cash costs are $550 per ounce of gold produced. But with each golden ounce now fetching $1300/oz the operation can most definitely make a profit today and this could provide a major windfall for shareholders of Peninsular Gold.
A return to the glory days
Since its first gold pour in February 2009 the plant has already yielded over 22,000 oz of gold, but Andrew Kam’s sights are set much higher than this. A plant upgrade will double the processing capacity, while further exploration should increase the mine’s reserves.
At present Peninsular has some 900,000oz of gold in all categories of which around a third is accounted for by the tailings left over from past mining. The grades are not high but the mining operation is straightforward and relatively cheap. For the future though Peninsular is hoping to find richer seams at depth and also develop a potentially larger deposit at Tersang, some twenty kms to the north.
Early drilling results have been encouraging and we can look forward to further exploration results next year. While that is going ahead the expansion of the plant has enabled broker Daniel Stewart to forecast a trebling of gold production over the next three years and, using a gold price of $1200, it values the operation today at 73p with scope for a higher valuation if more gold is found or the price rises yet further.
Whether cricket will once again be played at Raub, I don’t know. But Andrew Kam is determined to restore the mine to its former glory. I hope he succeeds.
Enter the Golden Ring of Fire
Of course it helps that gold continues to escalate. And with mounting mistrust of paper currencies, I doubt that Peninsular will be the only one bringing vast gold mines back into production.
This is Tom Bulford's write up about 9 months back.
All over the world old gold mines are being brought back to life. Long forgotten and neglected, flooded, overrun by the jungle and fallen into decay they nonetheless represent an enticing proposition at today’s record gold price. Few though have quite such a history as the Raub mine in central Malaysia.
It has a dark history of plunder and neglect. With joyous early developers being driven away by invading armies and a devastating collapse in the gold market.
Today though, with gold fetching $1,300/oz, one small gold miner has returned to the Raub district. And could be about to restore a mythic mine to its glory days – transforming the miner in the process.
How a gold mine achieved mythic status
In the early nineteenth century, according to folk tales, an old man and his two sons discovered gold fields while walking in an area about 100 km north of Kuala Lumpur. As the story goes, the men claimed the fields were so rich in gold that it could be scooped out of the earth by the handful. The town and the district soon became known by the Malay word raub, meaning scoop.
The news travelled as far as Australia, where a similarity was noted between the type of gold deposit found in the spine that runs through the Malay peninsula and in the gold fields of Victoria. The Brisbane based Raub syndicate was awarded a concession. And William Bibby, of the well known Liverpool family, was engaged by the syndicate and sent out to Malaysia.
Bibby prospected along the hills north of Kuala Lumpur and in 1893 stumbled across a particularly rich seam. He made his headquarters here at Bukit Koman and set about building the mine. It became a huge enterprise. Malaysia’s first power plant was built specifically for the mine which, by 1930, was employing eight thousand people.
But this week I met Dato’Sri Andrew Tai Keow Kam, Chairman, Chief Executive and major shareholder of Peninsular Gold (PGL), which has the mine today and he told me a little of the darker side of the mine’s history.
The dark tale of the forgotten gold mine
First he showed me photographs of the gold leaving the mine on the back of elephants and a scorecard detailing the results of a cricket match played in 1897. Colonial life was at its height. ‘After the match upon the first day a dinner was given by Mr. Bibby at his Bungalow, at which about 45 covers were laid and a “sing-song” afterwards was kept up until the small hours of the morning; a most enjoyable evening was spent.’
But the fun stopped when the Japanese invaded the Malay peninsula in 1941. The workers abandoned the mine, sabotaging the machinery as they hurried away. The Japanese caught the mine’s manager, took him to Changi jail in Singapore and demanded to know where the richest seams of gold lay. Refusing to reveal the secret, he was tortured and eventually executed.
After the war the Australians returned and mining resumed but in 1962, with gold fetching just $30 per ounce, it became uneconomic and was closed down – having yielded more than one million ounces of gold since 1889.
At $30/oz the mine certainly would not make a profit today. On top of a $50m investment in processing plant the mine’s cash costs are $550 per ounce of gold produced. But with each golden ounce now fetching $1300/oz the operation can most definitely make a profit today and this could provide a major windfall for shareholders of Peninsular Gold.
A return to the glory days
Since its first gold pour in February 2009 the plant has already yielded over 22,000 oz of gold, but Andrew Kam’s sights are set much higher than this. A plant upgrade will double the processing capacity, while further exploration should increase the mine’s reserves.
At present Peninsular has some 900,000oz of gold in all categories of which around a third is accounted for by the tailings left over from past mining. The grades are not high but the mining operation is straightforward and relatively cheap. For the future though Peninsular is hoping to find richer seams at depth and also develop a potentially larger deposit at Tersang, some twenty kms to the north.
Early drilling results have been encouraging and we can look forward to further exploration results next year. While that is going ahead the expansion of the plant has enabled broker Daniel Stewart to forecast a trebling of gold production over the next three years and, using a gold price of $1200, it values the operation today at 73p with scope for a higher valuation if more gold is found or the price rises yet further.
Whether cricket will once again be played at Raub, I don’t know. But Andrew Kam is determined to restore the mine to its former glory. I hope he succeeds.
Enter the Golden Ring of Fire
Of course it helps that gold continues to escalate. And with mounting mistrust of paper currencies, I doubt that Peninsular will be the only one bringing vast gold mines back into production.
I have bought an ultra-small holding in PUR Pure Wafer. It has been a dog for years.
The company has a Market Cap of c.£4.5m (126m shares @ 3.5p)
The primary business is silicon wafer reclaim http://www.purewafer.com/
They have an interesting new business in solar wafers/cells/panels http://www.purewafersolar.com/
The Accountants may be interested in giving this company a good look over.
At the last accounting date (31st Dec 2010) Net Assets (principally Tangible Fixed Assets in shape of a their 'high tech' plant PPE(Property,Plant,Equipment was $34m)) totalled $28m.
Cash flow from Net Operating Activities in the Six Months to 31st Dec 2010 was $2.9m with EBITDA of $1.6m on Revenue of $14m. Pre-Tax Loss was $3m.
http://fool.uk-wire.com/Article.aspx?id=201103300700088593D
The company has a Market Cap of c.£4.5m (126m shares @ 3.5p)
The primary business is silicon wafer reclaim http://www.purewafer.com/
They have an interesting new business in solar wafers/cells/panels http://www.purewafersolar.com/
The Accountants may be interested in giving this company a good look over.
At the last accounting date (31st Dec 2010) Net Assets (principally Tangible Fixed Assets in shape of a their 'high tech' plant PPE(Property,Plant,Equipment was $34m)) totalled $28m.
Cash flow from Net Operating Activities in the Six Months to 31st Dec 2010 was $2.9m with EBITDA of $1.6m on Revenue of $14m. Pre-Tax Loss was $3m.
http://fool.uk-wire.com/Article.aspx?id=201103300700088593D
There has been some low grade coverage in the local press of their early stage research project to convert recycled silicon wafer scrap from the semiconductor industry into solar wafers. Ridiculous talk by some of "20 fold improvement in power/efficiency" which is scientifically impossible but they may actually have a small interesting business which could see the stock re-rated.
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Research throws new light on PV cell development
Low cost photovoltaic panels capable of producing twenty times more power than standard cells are under development in Wales and could cut the financial payback time from ten years to just twelve months.
Wednesday 20 July 2011
The collaborative industrial research project by Swansea University, Swansea based Pure Wafer Solar and Gwent Electronic Materials (GEM) aims to have a full-scale pilot production line up and running within eighteen months.
The intention is then to set up a manufacturing facility capable of processing more than 2MW per annum – enough to generate power for more than 1000 homes.
It currently takes about ten years to recoup the cost of installing a PV system but the short financial payback and the low cost of these panels will make it economically attractive for businesses and investors.
The Welsh Government Academic Expertise for Business (A4B) programme is backing the innovative industrial collaboration. A4B is EU funded and supports highly innovative collaborative R&D projects between academia and industry to bring new high value products and processes to the market.
Novel nano-materials and advanced manufacturing processes will be utilised to create a clean and affordable energy supply using reclaimed silicon integrated into a low cost Concentrating PV (CVP) panel that intensifies the light focussed on to the cells, generating more power.
Rather than trying to increase the efficiency of PV cells through a complex and expensive process, the aim is to increase the intensity of light that hits the cell using low cost nano scale lenses.
Business Minister Edwina Hart said that in the current economic climate it is more important than ever that Welsh industry takes advantage of the innovation and know how provided by academic research.
“The application of these skills to industrial partners can bring considerable benefits to individual companies and the wider economy. This particular project has the potential to help meet renewable energy targets and create green jobs in two of our key sectors.”
The use of reclaimed silicon wafers will dramatically reduce the carbon footprint of the PV modules. Reclaimed wafers are readily available from Pure Wafer - the world’s second largest wafer reclaim business (see Notes to Editors).
Unlike standard silicon cells, PV cells fabricated from recycled silicon require vastly reduced thermal processing, making them the greenest possible silicon PV option.
The reclaimed wafers - which measure up to 300mm sq – mean the silicon cells will be nearly twice the standard size. When incorporated in a CPV module, up to twenty times more power could be generated than from standard modules, with little additional cell cost.
The inks used for electrical contacts can make up almost 30% of solar cell manufacturing costs and GEM will develop lower-cost inks with optimised electrical performance for concentration
Dr Owen Guy who is leading the project said support from A4B would ensure the rapid transfer of technology from the lab to the production line.
“This step change in PV electrical generation will have a huge economic and environmental impact by reducing the energy payback time from five years to six months and the economic pay back time from ten years to one year.
“It will make PV electricity generation economically viable even without the current Feed in Tariff and make investment in PV installations very financially attractive.”
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Research throws new light on PV cell development
Low cost photovoltaic panels capable of producing twenty times more power than standard cells are under development in Wales and could cut the financial payback time from ten years to just twelve months.
Wednesday 20 July 2011
The collaborative industrial research project by Swansea University, Swansea based Pure Wafer Solar and Gwent Electronic Materials (GEM) aims to have a full-scale pilot production line up and running within eighteen months.
The intention is then to set up a manufacturing facility capable of processing more than 2MW per annum – enough to generate power for more than 1000 homes.
It currently takes about ten years to recoup the cost of installing a PV system but the short financial payback and the low cost of these panels will make it economically attractive for businesses and investors.
The Welsh Government Academic Expertise for Business (A4B) programme is backing the innovative industrial collaboration. A4B is EU funded and supports highly innovative collaborative R&D projects between academia and industry to bring new high value products and processes to the market.
Novel nano-materials and advanced manufacturing processes will be utilised to create a clean and affordable energy supply using reclaimed silicon integrated into a low cost Concentrating PV (CVP) panel that intensifies the light focussed on to the cells, generating more power.
Rather than trying to increase the efficiency of PV cells through a complex and expensive process, the aim is to increase the intensity of light that hits the cell using low cost nano scale lenses.
Business Minister Edwina Hart said that in the current economic climate it is more important than ever that Welsh industry takes advantage of the innovation and know how provided by academic research.
“The application of these skills to industrial partners can bring considerable benefits to individual companies and the wider economy. This particular project has the potential to help meet renewable energy targets and create green jobs in two of our key sectors.”
The use of reclaimed silicon wafers will dramatically reduce the carbon footprint of the PV modules. Reclaimed wafers are readily available from Pure Wafer - the world’s second largest wafer reclaim business (see Notes to Editors).
Unlike standard silicon cells, PV cells fabricated from recycled silicon require vastly reduced thermal processing, making them the greenest possible silicon PV option.
The reclaimed wafers - which measure up to 300mm sq – mean the silicon cells will be nearly twice the standard size. When incorporated in a CPV module, up to twenty times more power could be generated than from standard modules, with little additional cell cost.
The inks used for electrical contacts can make up almost 30% of solar cell manufacturing costs and GEM will develop lower-cost inks with optimised electrical performance for concentration
Dr Owen Guy who is leading the project said support from A4B would ensure the rapid transfer of technology from the lab to the production line.
“This step change in PV electrical generation will have a huge economic and environmental impact by reducing the energy payback time from five years to six months and the economic pay back time from ten years to one year.
“It will make PV electricity generation economically viable even without the current Feed in Tariff and make investment in PV installations very financially attractive.”
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Eagle_Eye
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Thanks pia.... I am still quite puzzled as to why the market is not responding to MWA with gold at such high
Some of the heavy retail owned, illiquid names really seem to be getting hit recently especially in the overbought/overowned mining oil and gas space. Doubly so if no identifiable catalysts or news to support the prices or cash/liquid assets.
In such an environment I would steer clear of falling knives, they are either falling for a reason or the investor base is not going to be very clever and quite unpredictable.
Concentrating on those stocks showing good relative strength which should be recession proof and have strong charts despite the turmoil (e.g. on this page LKI (agriculture) and VAL (biotech))
I doubt we are at the Gold moon shoot stage yet that would be Gold $2000+. This is a bit of a nice correction during a low liquidity season to generate enough headlines for QE3 to be deemed acceptable.
In such an environment I would steer clear of falling knives, they are either falling for a reason or the investor base is not going to be very clever and quite unpredictable.
Concentrating on those stocks showing good relative strength which should be recession proof and have strong charts despite the turmoil (e.g. on this page LKI (agriculture) and VAL (biotech))
I doubt we are at the Gold moon shoot stage yet that would be Gold $2000+. This is a bit of a nice correction during a low liquidity season to generate enough headlines for QE3 to be deemed acceptable.
EO. and RKH are two cases in point.
They both have valuable assets reasonably proved up oil resources worth billions of dollars in the ground. Highly paid City analysts think they are worth 50-200% more than their current prices. Unfortunately they are heavily owned by retail investors who are either 'investing' on margin or covering margin calls on other stocks so stuff just gets sold off indiscriminately.
They both have valuable assets reasonably proved up oil resources worth billions of dollars in the ground. Highly paid City analysts think they are worth 50-200% more than their current prices. Unfortunately they are heavily owned by retail investors who are either 'investing' on margin or covering margin calls on other stocks so stuff just gets sold off indiscriminately.
Eagle_Eye
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Oh dear What a massacre of the junior oilies!!
pia - Is there a precious metals conference in London on sat?
pia - Is there a precious metals conference in London on sat?
Some good comment on PGL and SRB peer BGC by the analyst here :-
http://minesite.com/media/pub/var/release_downloadable_file/32353.pdf
BGC is valued at $100m ! compared with SRB only about $25m.
The end game for these Tapajos Basin gold players is that if they don't find a resource 'economic' enough to mine themselves then they'll end up buying each other to benefit from economies of scale. SRB should be in strongest position in any scenario as it actually has a 'mothballed' mine/plant/infrastructure and a mining licence.
http://minesite.com/media/pub/var/release_downloadable_file/32353.pdf
BGC is valued at $100m ! compared with SRB only about $25m.
The end game for these Tapajos Basin gold players is that if they don't find a resource 'economic' enough to mine themselves then they'll end up buying each other to benefit from economies of scale. SRB should be in strongest position in any scenario as it actually has a 'mothballed' mine/plant/infrastructure and a mining licence.
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EE, nothing that I know of re PM conference, would be a bit weird having it in August as most of the real players will be on holiday. Minesite tends to go on holiday between July and September. (Although having said that Diggers & Dealers is going on in Kalgoolie, Australia although I think that is just an excuse to go on a 'bender' out of town).
http://minesite.com/pub/articles/category_id-21
http://minesite.com/pub/articles/category_id-21
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FT Alphaville discussion on the 'punters favourites' being massacred.
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/08/04/643356/markets-live
I welcome it in the interests of the long term 'game' being played out.
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/08/04/643356/markets-live
I welcome it in the interests of the long term 'game' being played out.
DeadlyVenom
Senior Test Player
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- Post of the Week
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All the oil companies I've invested in have been hit very badly. Interesting times ahead.
Eagle_Eye
ODI Debutant
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Its great if your sitting on cash till QE3 comes along .... Heavily invested in one of the punters favourites.. RRL but luckily my average is around 7...
When some of the panic has subsided I may sell partial holdings in some 'winners' (stocks which stayed flat) to re-invest in 'losers' but there is no rush. It would however be silly to sell stocks which are winners to fund losers and goes against so many investing adages which have held good over time.
Sell in May and go away has been good advice for many years for very good reason as the market becomes illiquid, businesses go on holiday and the general slowdown and lengthening of sales cycles do increase risk premium anyway. We just happen to have that normal seasonal weakness being played out against backdrop of potentially catastrophic sovereign debt defaults.
None of that really changes fundamentals for many of my stocks.
Sell in May and go away has been good advice for many years for very good reason as the market becomes illiquid, businesses go on holiday and the general slowdown and lengthening of sales cycles do increase risk premium anyway. We just happen to have that normal seasonal weakness being played out against backdrop of potentially catastrophic sovereign debt defaults.
None of that really changes fundamentals for many of my stocks.
Eagle_Eye
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More bloodbath to come tomorrow.... oh dear! The flight of capital from riskier stocks due to to the eurozone collapsing is not going away anytime soon unfortunately.
zaid65
T20I Debutant
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- 7,963
Look like more blood shed to come in coming days.
Good thing I am all in cash and bought VXX few weeks ago and now sitting and enjoying the upward trend.
Good thing I am all in cash and bought VXX few weeks ago and now sitting and enjoying the upward trend.
Eagle_Eye
ODI Debutant
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dow down 500 points...... more bloodbath to come tomorrow!!
Had to laugh at this (just one example of the experts out there)... I remember a few weeks ago the 'experts' were talking about Head and Shoulders patterns on Gold and it heading back to $1400/oz and few weeks later Gold in almost $1700/oz
Some of the headlines from this guy are hilarious :-
23 Jan 2011 - Gold Weakening Momentum Continues, Next Target $1320
20 Feb 2011 - Gold Uptrend Lacks Enthusiasm
27 Feb 2011 - Gold Fails to Break to New All Time High Despite Middle East Crisis
13 Mar 2011 - Gold Reversal Ahead?
20 Mar 2011 - The Failure of Gold to Breakout Despite Compounding Crisis
27 Mar 2011 - Gold and Silver Rally Lacks Momentum
03 Apr 2011 - Gold Forming Bearish Double Top?
24 Jul 2011 - Gold Top May be Forming, Getting Too Darn Hot!
31 Jul 2011 - Gold Makes New Highs, But Something Does Not Feel Right
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/UserInfo-Merv_Burak.html
Some of the headlines from this guy are hilarious :-
23 Jan 2011 - Gold Weakening Momentum Continues, Next Target $1320
20 Feb 2011 - Gold Uptrend Lacks Enthusiasm
27 Feb 2011 - Gold Fails to Break to New All Time High Despite Middle East Crisis
13 Mar 2011 - Gold Reversal Ahead?
20 Mar 2011 - The Failure of Gold to Breakout Despite Compounding Crisis
27 Mar 2011 - Gold and Silver Rally Lacks Momentum
03 Apr 2011 - Gold Forming Bearish Double Top?
24 Jul 2011 - Gold Top May be Forming, Getting Too Darn Hot!
31 Jul 2011 - Gold Makes New Highs, But Something Does Not Feel Right
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/UserInfo-Merv_Burak.html
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That is just one guy but most of the experts whether technical or fundamental analysts do the same stuff, basically take a short term 'trend' and extrapolate it.
The same will happen over the next few days but one would expect one month out many of the prognostications will have proven wrong.
The same will happen over the next few days but one would expect one month out many of the prognostications will have proven wrong.
Many punters fell foul of the dreaded margin call.
When alarm bells are ringing and share prices are plummeting, brokers are forced to give clients a ring to tell them when the balance of his/her trading account has dropped below the margin requirements for any active trades.
At that point, they will have to cough up more cash as collateral in order to keep the bargain alive. Many brokers nowadays don’t even bother calling, they automatically dump the offending stock on to the market leaving clients with a hefty bill.
That was the case yesterday as several of the market’s old speculative favourites were absolutely hammered. Jam tomorrow technology stock Pursuit Dynamics crashed to 181.75p before closing 60.75p, or 24 per cent down, at 193.25p.
Oil stock BowLeven lost 25p more to 140.25p and has almost halved this week, while Falklands oil hopeful Rockhopper Exploration dropped a painful 45.75p or 22 per cent to a 52-week low of 160.5p. Encore Oil, often punted on takeover hopes, fell 8p to 47p.
Read more: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/...encore-stock-takes-beating.html#ixzz1U6sdZkRk
When alarm bells are ringing and share prices are plummeting, brokers are forced to give clients a ring to tell them when the balance of his/her trading account has dropped below the margin requirements for any active trades.
At that point, they will have to cough up more cash as collateral in order to keep the bargain alive. Many brokers nowadays don’t even bother calling, they automatically dump the offending stock on to the market leaving clients with a hefty bill.
That was the case yesterday as several of the market’s old speculative favourites were absolutely hammered. Jam tomorrow technology stock Pursuit Dynamics crashed to 181.75p before closing 60.75p, or 24 per cent down, at 193.25p.
Oil stock BowLeven lost 25p more to 140.25p and has almost halved this week, while Falklands oil hopeful Rockhopper Exploration dropped a painful 45.75p or 22 per cent to a 52-week low of 160.5p. Encore Oil, often punted on takeover hopes, fell 8p to 47p.
Read more: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/...encore-stock-takes-beating.html#ixzz1U6sdZkRk
TPJ's Aussie partner GOA on Crater Mountain project releases new Investor Presentation
"Drilling for a World Class Gold Discovery in PNG"
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01204642
"Drilling for a World Class Gold Discovery in PNG"
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01204642
Others reporting TDW is down.
Also Hargreaves Lansdown platform went down as well.
Shows that this market fall is a bit 'rigged'. Stock being put on sale but no-one able to buy. These falls have little to do with fundamentals or risk aversion it is a rout of the leveraged retail investor so I'd be looking to take advantage if my online accounts worked.
Also Hargreaves Lansdown platform went down as well.
Shows that this market fall is a bit 'rigged'. Stock being put on sale but no-one able to buy. These falls have little to do with fundamentals or risk aversion it is a rout of the leveraged retail investor so I'd be looking to take advantage if my online accounts worked.
Reaction to US NFP jobs figures at midday UK time will be important 'tell'. My bias going into it would be that given the market 'riot' that 'bad news' is priced in so we are set for a bounce ? Albeit Dow Futures are recovering ahead of it. Maybe the Fed / US Treasury Plunge Protection Team will come into operation ?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Working_Group_on_Financial_Markets#Plunge_Protection_Team
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Working_Group_on_Financial_Markets#Plunge_Protection_Team
Some interesting comments from around the BBs
JTCod - 4 Aug 2011
A topical subject right now but doesn't this debate show how much economics is so much bunkham when actually put into practice?
No two major slumps are the same and it always boils down to a chicken and egg argument whilst the economy continues to deteriorate over many years until it either bottoms or we go to war.
Keynes vs Hayik
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14366054
JTCod - 4 Aug 2011
A topical subject right now but doesn't this debate show how much economics is so much bunkham when actually put into practice?
No two major slumps are the same and it always boils down to a chicken and egg argument whilst the economy continues to deteriorate over many years until it either bottoms or we go to war.
Keynes vs Hayik
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14366054
JTCod - 5 Aug 2011
What on Earth Do They Do Now? - Stephanie Flanders
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14412699
There is still so much constitutional reform needed to enable the ECB to act appropriately. All eyes will be on them just waiting for an initiative.
Also, how long is the Fed going to wait before they act on the US's fast slowing economy?
Didn't Bernanke say he would drop cash out of helicopters if necessary?
What on Earth Do They Do Now? - Stephanie Flanders
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14412699
There is still so much constitutional reform needed to enable the ECB to act appropriately. All eyes will be on them just waiting for an initiative.
Also, how long is the Fed going to wait before they act on the US's fast slowing economy?
Didn't Bernanke say he would drop cash out of helicopters if necessary?
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CockneyRebel - 5 Aug 2011
Yep, not doing anything here ahead of non-farm.
Some Italian data out just now - not sure if it was GDP or manufacturing but it has come in well lower than the previous month.
VIX hit a nice high of 32, a tad higher than the Tsunami in Japan so there's fear in the mkt now. But if you go back to May last year the VIX hit 50 and on Lehmans it hit 90.
Bit of caution needed still - if non-farm is poor then we have a weekend to get through and all the newspapers pouring over this and frightening the live out of many.
Another thought - if the markets are going down like this then pension deficits are likely to be widening.
Copper is starting to come off too.
CR
Yep, not doing anything here ahead of non-farm.
Some Italian data out just now - not sure if it was GDP or manufacturing but it has come in well lower than the previous month.
VIX hit a nice high of 32, a tad higher than the Tsunami in Japan so there's fear in the mkt now. But if you go back to May last year the VIX hit 50 and on Lehmans it hit 90.
Bit of caution needed still - if non-farm is poor then we have a weekend to get through and all the newspapers pouring over this and frightening the live out of many.
Another thought - if the markets are going down like this then pension deficits are likely to be widening.
Copper is starting to come off too.
CR
CockneyRebel - 4 Aug 2011
VIX has hit 30.5 - that's just below the Japanese tsunami level - might mean a double top on the VIX here. The fears in there now - I fancy a big sell off here tomorrow and then the US positive tomorrow - might have to see the S&P test 1180 first tho.
CR
CockneyRebel - 4 Aug 2011
RSI on the S&P is now lower than it was on the March 2009 bottom. Only lower RSI I can see is the Lehmans crash in Nov 08.
CR
VIX has hit 30.5 - that's just below the Japanese tsunami level - might mean a double top on the VIX here. The fears in there now - I fancy a big sell off here tomorrow and then the US positive tomorrow - might have to see the S&P test 1180 first tho.
CR
CockneyRebel - 4 Aug 2011
RSI on the S&P is now lower than it was on the March 2009 bottom. Only lower RSI I can see is the Lehmans crash in Nov 08.
CR
Down2Earth
ODI Debutant
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time to pick up some real bargains, but i guess it's a little too late now.
The above fluff has not been RNS'ed to PUR shareholders so I don't think the wider market is aware of this story yet.
Amazing performance in current market. Must admit just bought a bit more today and had to pay 4.25p !
Will probably ask Tom Bulford his view on this next week as it looks interesting potential turnaround situation. I like the basic idea of earning money from other peoples waste.
I don't know if we are near the bottom in the market because wider macro events are afoot. Would not be buying 'the market' right now.
However there is always a bull market somewhere so I am trying at a micro level to re-weight my portfolio so that I have some 'protection' in case policy makers do not step up and react to rioting of financial markets. Either way Gold should perform and thus I have and will buy more producing gold miners such as PGL, OMI, MWA. However ultimately higher gold should show up in better leveraged plays like quality explorers e.g. CNR, TPJ, SRB
I do think there were bottoms in some stocks today because in micro sense they were suffering from 'runs' generated by a panicking of the retail punter crowd. Thus I bought FOGL trading at cash. I would only buy falling knives where they are backed by cash/cashflow/serious world class assets.
However there is always a bull market somewhere so I am trying at a micro level to re-weight my portfolio so that I have some 'protection' in case policy makers do not step up and react to rioting of financial markets. Either way Gold should perform and thus I have and will buy more producing gold miners such as PGL, OMI, MWA. However ultimately higher gold should show up in better leveraged plays like quality explorers e.g. CNR, TPJ, SRB
I do think there were bottoms in some stocks today because in micro sense they were suffering from 'runs' generated by a panicking of the retail punter crowd. Thus I bought FOGL trading at cash. I would only buy falling knives where they are backed by cash/cashflow/serious world class assets.
mining786
Tape Ball Regular
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pia786 -
A major correction taking place then. By the looks of things this correction is going to continue for some weeks yet. Low growth and slipping consumer confidence. Fear and anxiety people talking of a crash. I was just concerned as talk of another recession.
Don't forget news also this month
ORE news 15th
OMI news 18th
A major correction taking place then. By the looks of things this correction is going to continue for some weeks yet. Low growth and slipping consumer confidence. Fear and anxiety people talking of a crash. I was just concerned as talk of another recession.
Don't forget news also this month
ORE news 15th
OMI news 18th
Eagle_Eye
ODI Debutant
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RMP tipped by Tom Bulford!!.... what *******... still not admitting he made a mistake in putting a sell order on RRL at 9p in Feb...
I mentioned RMP here few months ago as its a leveraged play compared to RRL for Georgia and Puntland... I have both RRL and RMP....
I mentioned RMP here few months ago as its a leveraged play compared to RRL for Georgia and Puntland... I have both RRL and RMP....
Don't understand the attractions of RMP/RRL myself given the political risk of operating in and around Somalia.
These are the figures i have for RMP :-
(Will check OIP and recovery factors for all the stocks as RMP seems to be a multiple out at moment)
Africa Oil (TSX:AOI) is valued at $250m i.e. £150m and has about 3x the exposure of RMP / RRL ? plus some other prospects so doesn't look like any major valuation discrepancy within these East Africa explorers?
These are the figures i have for RMP :-
(Will check OIP and recovery factors for all the stocks as RMP seems to be a multiple out at moment)
Africa Oil (TSX:AOI) is valued at $250m i.e. £150m and has about 3x the exposure of RMP / RRL ? plus some other prospects so doesn't look like any major valuation discrepancy within these East Africa explorers?
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DeadlyVenom
Senior Test Player
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pia, EE could you guys possibly post a link to this months rhps?
Last edited:
DeadlyVenom
Senior Test Player
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Thanks!
jaspa888
Local Club Star
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pia786 - can you email me the rhps details please mate?
Eagle_Eye
ODI Debutant
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gamble
VAL have a $1m odd investment in Volition which is due to have an IPO at some stage
http://www.volitionrx.com/newsroom/85-newsitem13.html
http://www.volitionrx.com/newsroom/85-newsitem13.html
jaspa888
Local Club Star
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http://blogs.ft.com/crookblog/2011/08/some-thoughts-on-the-sp-downgrade/#ixzz1UI7hH7bz
Some thoughts on the S&P downgrade
August 6, 2011 11:20 pm by Clive Crook .
In a way it will be puzzling if the S&P downgrade–despite all the blather about its historic significance–changes anything at all. Certainly, the news should not have come as a surprise: the agency has been talking about it for weeks and the rating for US government debt had been under formal negative review before the announcement. If there is a surprise, it is mainly that the agency had the nerve to go through with it.
More fundamentally, what new information did the downgrade and the analysis supporting it provide? None. After their performance of the past few years, rating agency analysts have, or should have, little credibility in any case. Reports of the initial $2 trillion misunderstanding in S&P’s examination of the Treasury’s books (they used the wrong CBO baseline) lend a tragicomic note, and run their reputational capital down even further. And all this would be true even if US Treasuries were arcane instruments that few investors could afford to monitor carefully, forcing them to rely on the agencies for lack of anything better. In fact, of course, US Treasuries are the most widely and intensely analyzed obligations on the planet. What does S&P know about them that you and I don’t? The informational content of the downgrade is precisely zero.
When it comes to judging market impact, two complications arise. One is the rules that some investors have adopted–or have had forced on them by regulators–obliging them to hold AAA assets. If those assets have to be dumped, the market implications would obviously be severe. According to what I read, these rules should not be triggered by a downgrade to a notch under AAA at just one agency. Federal regulators in the US, for instance, have already said that the news will have no effect on risk-based capital requirements for US banks.
What if the other agencies do what S&P just did? I doubt they will, just yet. S&P is a competitor. The others will be hoping that it just made a colossal fool of itself: a bungled downgrade that needlessly sends the markets into a panic would be the best result for them. S&P put its head above the parapet and had it ripped off. They will give that scenario a chance of playing out before they move, I dare say. (Later, if governments turn on all the agencies and try to diminish their role in the overall regulatory scheme–as indeed they should–we may see more solidarity.)
The other complication is market psychology: animal spirits, and all that. Markets move in unfathomable ways, especially in the short term, so who knows what will happen on Monday? But I know what ought to happen because of this news. Nothing.
Some thoughts on the S&P downgrade
August 6, 2011 11:20 pm by Clive Crook .
In a way it will be puzzling if the S&P downgrade–despite all the blather about its historic significance–changes anything at all. Certainly, the news should not have come as a surprise: the agency has been talking about it for weeks and the rating for US government debt had been under formal negative review before the announcement. If there is a surprise, it is mainly that the agency had the nerve to go through with it.
More fundamentally, what new information did the downgrade and the analysis supporting it provide? None. After their performance of the past few years, rating agency analysts have, or should have, little credibility in any case. Reports of the initial $2 trillion misunderstanding in S&P’s examination of the Treasury’s books (they used the wrong CBO baseline) lend a tragicomic note, and run their reputational capital down even further. And all this would be true even if US Treasuries were arcane instruments that few investors could afford to monitor carefully, forcing them to rely on the agencies for lack of anything better. In fact, of course, US Treasuries are the most widely and intensely analyzed obligations on the planet. What does S&P know about them that you and I don’t? The informational content of the downgrade is precisely zero.
When it comes to judging market impact, two complications arise. One is the rules that some investors have adopted–or have had forced on them by regulators–obliging them to hold AAA assets. If those assets have to be dumped, the market implications would obviously be severe. According to what I read, these rules should not be triggered by a downgrade to a notch under AAA at just one agency. Federal regulators in the US, for instance, have already said that the news will have no effect on risk-based capital requirements for US banks.
What if the other agencies do what S&P just did? I doubt they will, just yet. S&P is a competitor. The others will be hoping that it just made a colossal fool of itself: a bungled downgrade that needlessly sends the markets into a panic would be the best result for them. S&P put its head above the parapet and had it ripped off. They will give that scenario a chance of playing out before they move, I dare say. (Later, if governments turn on all the agencies and try to diminish their role in the overall regulatory scheme–as indeed they should–we may see more solidarity.)
The other complication is market psychology: animal spirits, and all that. Markets move in unfathomable ways, especially in the short term, so who knows what will happen on Monday? But I know what ought to happen because of this news. Nothing.
Great news for gold and for gold shares IMO.
If China tries to diversify it's trillions in US debt into physical gold the gold price would rocket against them.
The best way for China to increase exposure to Gold in long term strategic way is to buy up the small explorers with the best potential deposits. Price of physical gold per oz is $1700/oz. But you can buy juniors with quality resources like Condor Resources (AIM:CNR) at about $20/oz !
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/...1&feedType=RSS&feedName=governmentFilingsNews
Aug 7 (Reuters) - China's top newspaper on Sunday warned that Asian exporters could be among the biggest victims of mounting U.S. economic woes after Standard and Poor's downgraded the United States' sovereign credit rating.
"Such comments, like a commentary from the Xinhua news agency on Saturday, do not amount to a definitive response from the government. But they echo warnings from policy advisers that Beijing must accelerate the diversification of its holdings."
If China tries to diversify it's trillions in US debt into physical gold the gold price would rocket against them.
The best way for China to increase exposure to Gold in long term strategic way is to buy up the small explorers with the best potential deposits. Price of physical gold per oz is $1700/oz. But you can buy juniors with quality resources like Condor Resources (AIM:CNR) at about $20/oz !
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/...1&feedType=RSS&feedName=governmentFilingsNews
Aug 7 (Reuters) - China's top newspaper on Sunday warned that Asian exporters could be among the biggest victims of mounting U.S. economic woes after Standard and Poor's downgraded the United States' sovereign credit rating.
"Such comments, like a commentary from the Xinhua news agency on Saturday, do not amount to a definitive response from the government. But they echo warnings from policy advisers that Beijing must accelerate the diversification of its holdings."
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http://minesite.com/news/after-some...wards-expanded-production-at-raub-in-malaysia
May 24, 2011
After Some Delay, Peninsular Gold Is Now Forging Ahead Towards Expanded Production At Raub In Malaysia
By Charles Wyatt
Towards the end of last year Patrick Watson, finance director of Peninsular Gold, said that the first quarter of 2011 would be a pivotal period at the Raub gold project in Malaysia. The plant was being expanded and would come on stream to treat tailings and subsequently fresh oxide ore that would be being mined by then. Well, things are certainly moving ahead on the ground, but production is has been marking time nonetheless. The numbers bear this out, as the company produced 3,562 ounces of gold in the three months to end March compared with 4,524 ounces in the last quarter of 2010. It is a sad fact of mining that predictions are often turned on their heads by totally unexpected events. In this case key components of the expanded carbon-in-leach circuit were late in being delivered. They only arrived on site this month, and now construction will not be completed until the end of June. Commissioning, using the tailings material, will take place in the third quarter.
Investors are a restless lot, and not always as clued up about mining as they might be. Hardly surprising, therefore, that quite a number hit the exit button and the shares are now standing at around 40p compared with 60p back in February. Not that this is entirely the fault of Peninsular Gold as equities have not kept up with the gold price at all this year, and in fact have gone the other way. Back in February there were tremors about the gold price, led as usual by the Financial Times, which declared that the gold bubble – their description - had burst. In fact it continued to power ahead until a few weeks ago when Goldman Sachs queried its future. And even this query has now been ignored, with gold standing above US$1,500 per ounce.
But even in the wake of that gold price strength, shareholders in Peninsular Gold are mindful that the company raised money in two tranches totalling around £10 million towards the end of last year at 50p per share. This money was required to fund plant expansion and develop infrastructure, to finance the next phase of exploration at the Raub project site and the recently approved northern licence areas, and to provide working capital. And the hope has to be that once the results confirm the benefits of expanding the plant this little hiatus will be forgotten, especially as the price of gold still looks so firm.
And it does look firm. The World Gold Council recently announced that gold demand grew 11 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2011, to 981.3 million tonnes, or an equivalent annualised 2,900 tonnes. Supply, on the other hand, was restricted to around 2,600 tonnes, so the balance must have come from scrap recovery and disinvestment. The point to be taken on by economists is that prices rarely fall when demand outstrips supply. It was not too difficult o see where this demand came from as investment in bars, coins and exchange traded funds rose 26 per cent to 310.5 tonnes, with China providing the biggest boost. This huge country is the world’s second most avid buyer after India and demand from China is expected to double in ten years.
Peninsular looks set to sail into this perfect storm with a rising production profile. It’s currently producing gold from the processing of tailings through its carbon-in-leach plant at Raub. Later this year, better not to put a date on it, production from the plant will increase significantly as its throughput capacity will double from 1.1 million tonnes per annum to two million. All gold production from Peninsular is un-hedged, with prices set to the gold price available at the time of sale so the strong outlook for gold should continue to boost profits. In addition to the tailings, there are 218,000 ounces of gold resources to JORC standards near the plant in free digging oxide material, and there is potential for plenty more. A diamond drilling programme completed last year identified significant gold mineralisation below the oxides within the envelope of the historic underground mine.
The next stage of exploration will include the northern targets which lie within Peninsular’s 11,000 hectares of exploration licence areas and only 25 kilometres from Raub. The priority, according to Patrick Watson, will still be to boost resources at Raub. But there will also be a focus on similar areas to the north, such as Tersang, which has a 528,000 ounce historic inferred resource which will now be converted into established, JORC compliant resource categories. The latest update on exploration shows some useful grades from drilling at Raub and Tersang. What stands out is the potential to improve upon the low grade of the tailings currently being processed, which averaged 0.6 grams per tonne during the March quarter.
It should not be difficult to treble the head grade when actual mining starts at Raub and this, combined with the enlarged plant, should help to brighten the eyes of shareholders once again. Patrick Watson points out that there are four milestones ahead before that is achieved. First will be commissioning of the enlarged plant; second the announcement of a significantly increased resource estimate; third the introduction of mined oxide material into the processing circuit; and fourth, the results for the first six months of 2012 which will confirm that everything has clicked into place. It’ll be interesting to watch as it all takes shape.
May 24, 2011
After Some Delay, Peninsular Gold Is Now Forging Ahead Towards Expanded Production At Raub In Malaysia
By Charles Wyatt
Towards the end of last year Patrick Watson, finance director of Peninsular Gold, said that the first quarter of 2011 would be a pivotal period at the Raub gold project in Malaysia. The plant was being expanded and would come on stream to treat tailings and subsequently fresh oxide ore that would be being mined by then. Well, things are certainly moving ahead on the ground, but production is has been marking time nonetheless. The numbers bear this out, as the company produced 3,562 ounces of gold in the three months to end March compared with 4,524 ounces in the last quarter of 2010. It is a sad fact of mining that predictions are often turned on their heads by totally unexpected events. In this case key components of the expanded carbon-in-leach circuit were late in being delivered. They only arrived on site this month, and now construction will not be completed until the end of June. Commissioning, using the tailings material, will take place in the third quarter.
Investors are a restless lot, and not always as clued up about mining as they might be. Hardly surprising, therefore, that quite a number hit the exit button and the shares are now standing at around 40p compared with 60p back in February. Not that this is entirely the fault of Peninsular Gold as equities have not kept up with the gold price at all this year, and in fact have gone the other way. Back in February there were tremors about the gold price, led as usual by the Financial Times, which declared that the gold bubble – their description - had burst. In fact it continued to power ahead until a few weeks ago when Goldman Sachs queried its future. And even this query has now been ignored, with gold standing above US$1,500 per ounce.
But even in the wake of that gold price strength, shareholders in Peninsular Gold are mindful that the company raised money in two tranches totalling around £10 million towards the end of last year at 50p per share. This money was required to fund plant expansion and develop infrastructure, to finance the next phase of exploration at the Raub project site and the recently approved northern licence areas, and to provide working capital. And the hope has to be that once the results confirm the benefits of expanding the plant this little hiatus will be forgotten, especially as the price of gold still looks so firm.
And it does look firm. The World Gold Council recently announced that gold demand grew 11 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2011, to 981.3 million tonnes, or an equivalent annualised 2,900 tonnes. Supply, on the other hand, was restricted to around 2,600 tonnes, so the balance must have come from scrap recovery and disinvestment. The point to be taken on by economists is that prices rarely fall when demand outstrips supply. It was not too difficult o see where this demand came from as investment in bars, coins and exchange traded funds rose 26 per cent to 310.5 tonnes, with China providing the biggest boost. This huge country is the world’s second most avid buyer after India and demand from China is expected to double in ten years.
Peninsular looks set to sail into this perfect storm with a rising production profile. It’s currently producing gold from the processing of tailings through its carbon-in-leach plant at Raub. Later this year, better not to put a date on it, production from the plant will increase significantly as its throughput capacity will double from 1.1 million tonnes per annum to two million. All gold production from Peninsular is un-hedged, with prices set to the gold price available at the time of sale so the strong outlook for gold should continue to boost profits. In addition to the tailings, there are 218,000 ounces of gold resources to JORC standards near the plant in free digging oxide material, and there is potential for plenty more. A diamond drilling programme completed last year identified significant gold mineralisation below the oxides within the envelope of the historic underground mine.
The next stage of exploration will include the northern targets which lie within Peninsular’s 11,000 hectares of exploration licence areas and only 25 kilometres from Raub. The priority, according to Patrick Watson, will still be to boost resources at Raub. But there will also be a focus on similar areas to the north, such as Tersang, which has a 528,000 ounce historic inferred resource which will now be converted into established, JORC compliant resource categories. The latest update on exploration shows some useful grades from drilling at Raub and Tersang. What stands out is the potential to improve upon the low grade of the tailings currently being processed, which averaged 0.6 grams per tonne during the March quarter.
It should not be difficult to treble the head grade when actual mining starts at Raub and this, combined with the enlarged plant, should help to brighten the eyes of shareholders once again. Patrick Watson points out that there are four milestones ahead before that is achieved. First will be commissioning of the enlarged plant; second the announcement of a significantly increased resource estimate; third the introduction of mined oxide material into the processing circuit; and fourth, the results for the first six months of 2012 which will confirm that everything has clicked into place. It’ll be interesting to watch as it all takes shape.
Orosur Mining recent Investor Presentation
June 2011
http://www.orosur.ca/_resources/110623_Orosur_Corporate_Presentation_WEB.pdf
June 2011
http://www.orosur.ca/_resources/110623_Orosur_Corporate_Presentation_WEB.pdf
mining786
Tape Ball Regular
- Joined
- Feb 13, 2011
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This is cheap at the current price and has plenty of room for high growth. Thanks fot the info. I'm not sure this has been posted here before?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2wcOv1s6DOc
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