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Buying shares?
- Thread starter DeadlyVenom
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Silver I do not trust. It is an industrial commodity so with economic growth under threat it could suffer some reduced demand. With gold you get defensive and offensive coverage in this market.
So far in overnight trading silver is lagging gold.
So far in overnight trading silver is lagging gold.
From Tom Winnifriths weekend editorial :-
"Jim Mellon's reaction to the news that we had made it was instructive. I quote: "This market sell off is going to be wonderful for PEBI - Great opportunities." When I chatted to Malcolm Burne about gold stocks on Friday he came up with a similar line and said that he had been hoovering up Canadian gold and silver stocks on Thursday night. It is, I think, instructive to see what really experienced and talented investors are thinking and doing before continuing."
Panic & Value - non gold
So the world faces a few problems. That we know. I am in a hotel watching CNN with some prat taking about "the markets" as an entity not a collection of stocks. Stocks are valued in relation to earnings. Sometimes they trade way ahead of underlying value (when investors are happy), sometimes well below (when they panic). Investors are panicking. And so they are selling shares on quite derisory multiples becuase they are afraid. Now I am in no doubt that world economic growth will be slower than previously forecast and this will impact on corporate earnings. The issue is whether this is discounted in valuations and in many cases I believe that it is more than discounted. you can look at the yields on offer from utterly secure blue chips and that should give you a hint. Or look at the derisory cash flow multiples on offer and small and mid caps.
Now I am inundated with calls from CEOs who say their stock is too cheap. They blame the structure of AIM, short sellers, market makers, their advisors, private investors panicking, hedge funds selling, fund managers being on holiday, etc, etc. My answer to all of them is simple: if you think your stock is far too cheap buy some more. A. You will make money. B. You send a signal that your stock is too cheap to the rest of us.Stop bleating and blaming and start buying. Stocks that look cheap, have no funding issues and where the board is buying (or where they are not allowed to buy but are exercising unapproved share options ie RSH!) probably are cheap. Any CEO who says his stock is cheap and is not buying shares is not doing his job properly. I do not care if he or she can only afford £2,000 or £5,000 they should buy first thing tomorrow. When the average AIM CEO gets paid £150,000 a year the idea that these folks cannot buy £10,000 of shares is just ludicrous.
Panic & value - gold
Gold is 30% up on the year. Most gold stocks are 20-40% down. Some lost 20% last week as gold moved ahead and - as an added bonus - oil fell. Why is this? Firstly amid a general panic folks tend to sell what they can sell easily first and gold stocks - as there is some demand- suffered across the world. Secondly some folks still think gold is a commodity not a currenmcy and so mistakenly sold on fears of slower economic growth. And thirdly gold stocks have attracted more than their fair share of speculators buying on margin. There were a lot of margin calls last week, initially outside gold, which prompted forced selling. Then gold stocks fell and that prompted more margin calls. The speculators will be squeezed out and then fundamentals re-assert. At $1500 gold there were a raft of mid cap gold stocks on 2 times cashflows. But now we are at $1660. And gold is heading higher so those multiples will get lower and lower and in the end value will out. As investors graps that reality gold stocks will fly. This is a when not an if. The re-rating will be dramatic and savage and so there is no point waiting to call the bottom. You are buying extreme value now. You just have to wait. That is the Malcolm Burne view and mine.
"Jim Mellon's reaction to the news that we had made it was instructive. I quote: "This market sell off is going to be wonderful for PEBI - Great opportunities." When I chatted to Malcolm Burne about gold stocks on Friday he came up with a similar line and said that he had been hoovering up Canadian gold and silver stocks on Thursday night. It is, I think, instructive to see what really experienced and talented investors are thinking and doing before continuing."
Panic & Value - non gold
So the world faces a few problems. That we know. I am in a hotel watching CNN with some prat taking about "the markets" as an entity not a collection of stocks. Stocks are valued in relation to earnings. Sometimes they trade way ahead of underlying value (when investors are happy), sometimes well below (when they panic). Investors are panicking. And so they are selling shares on quite derisory multiples becuase they are afraid. Now I am in no doubt that world economic growth will be slower than previously forecast and this will impact on corporate earnings. The issue is whether this is discounted in valuations and in many cases I believe that it is more than discounted. you can look at the yields on offer from utterly secure blue chips and that should give you a hint. Or look at the derisory cash flow multiples on offer and small and mid caps.
Now I am inundated with calls from CEOs who say their stock is too cheap. They blame the structure of AIM, short sellers, market makers, their advisors, private investors panicking, hedge funds selling, fund managers being on holiday, etc, etc. My answer to all of them is simple: if you think your stock is far too cheap buy some more. A. You will make money. B. You send a signal that your stock is too cheap to the rest of us.Stop bleating and blaming and start buying. Stocks that look cheap, have no funding issues and where the board is buying (or where they are not allowed to buy but are exercising unapproved share options ie RSH!) probably are cheap. Any CEO who says his stock is cheap and is not buying shares is not doing his job properly. I do not care if he or she can only afford £2,000 or £5,000 they should buy first thing tomorrow. When the average AIM CEO gets paid £150,000 a year the idea that these folks cannot buy £10,000 of shares is just ludicrous.
Panic & value - gold
Gold is 30% up on the year. Most gold stocks are 20-40% down. Some lost 20% last week as gold moved ahead and - as an added bonus - oil fell. Why is this? Firstly amid a general panic folks tend to sell what they can sell easily first and gold stocks - as there is some demand- suffered across the world. Secondly some folks still think gold is a commodity not a currenmcy and so mistakenly sold on fears of slower economic growth. And thirdly gold stocks have attracted more than their fair share of speculators buying on margin. There were a lot of margin calls last week, initially outside gold, which prompted forced selling. Then gold stocks fell and that prompted more margin calls. The speculators will be squeezed out and then fundamentals re-assert. At $1500 gold there were a raft of mid cap gold stocks on 2 times cashflows. But now we are at $1660. And gold is heading higher so those multiples will get lower and lower and in the end value will out. As investors graps that reality gold stocks will fly. This is a when not an if. The re-rating will be dramatic and savage and so there is no point waiting to call the bottom. You are buying extreme value now. You just have to wait. That is the Malcolm Burne view and mine.
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mining786
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Precious metals and gold equities the place to be then. Conclusion is for wealth preservation buy physical gold and if you would like to make capital gains buy equities. The long term outlook for gold still looks promising. Just shy of $1700 as I type this.
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mining786
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Gold continues it's ascension upwards now trading at $1711 no surprise there.
mining786
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Gold continues it's ascension upwards now trading at $1711 no surprise there.
mining786
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Gold continues it's ascension upwards now trading at $1711 no surprise there.
mining786
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Absolutely appalled at the looting and rioting taking place.
Two RNSes from CHAR today with some readacross for TRP and GBP.
1. Partial farm-out to PGS of 10% in return for 50% off 3D seismic survey costing $25m
Thus CHAR seem to be valuing their 'Central Blocks' at $125m
2. 50% farm-out to BP of the 50% held by CHAR (other 50% held by Petrobras)
Looks like BP are paying CHAR's way for the 1st drill. My understanding is 1st drill will cost $100m in total? so BP in effect paid $50m for 25% stake. i.e. values CHAR stake in Block at $50m.
So CHAR now has about £100m cash and interests in licences worth $200m? More importantly it has partly de-risked with regard to funding requirements and has major partners who have validated the Namibia Basin to some extent.
CHAR already looks up with events but the industry news sources were suggesting Total would farm into TRP blocks and GBP remains un-partnered so they still look better plays to me.
1. Partial farm-out to PGS of 10% in return for 50% off 3D seismic survey costing $25m
Thus CHAR seem to be valuing their 'Central Blocks' at $125m
2. 50% farm-out to BP of the 50% held by CHAR (other 50% held by Petrobras)
Looks like BP are paying CHAR's way for the 1st drill. My understanding is 1st drill will cost $100m in total? so BP in effect paid $50m for 25% stake. i.e. values CHAR stake in Block at $50m.
So CHAR now has about £100m cash and interests in licences worth $200m? More importantly it has partly de-risked with regard to funding requirements and has major partners who have validated the Namibia Basin to some extent.
CHAR already looks up with events but the industry news sources were suggesting Total would farm into TRP blocks and GBP remains un-partnered so they still look better plays to me.
Cannacord and Matrix comments reported by FT Alphaville re CHAR
according to the sector watcher
The 4.4 billion barrel recoverable structure (1.1 billion barrels net CHAR) has a claimed 24% chance of success, and if we assumed an NPV of say $3/bbl, a success could be worth in excess of 1100p/share net. CHAR is not one that I've been a big fan of, largely because of the lack of progress on the farm-out (it's taken 18 months), and the shares have been marked down more than 60% from their year to date high. However I'd say that on the back of today's news they're now at a level where they're probably worth buying.
BE
Hm.
BE
Matrix make the point that news is likely to be nil for a while.
BE
Which is never a good thing for these kind of stocks
according to the sector watcher
The 4.4 billion barrel recoverable structure (1.1 billion barrels net CHAR) has a claimed 24% chance of success, and if we assumed an NPV of say $3/bbl, a success could be worth in excess of 1100p/share net. CHAR is not one that I've been a big fan of, largely because of the lack of progress on the farm-out (it's taken 18 months), and the shares have been marked down more than 60% from their year to date high. However I'd say that on the back of today's news they're now at a level where they're probably worth buying.
BE
Hm.
BE
Matrix make the point that news is likely to be nil for a while.
BE
Which is never a good thing for these kind of stocks
so BP have paid over $50m to access 25% share in CHAR's 4.8bn boe first drill on Nimrod prospect
what price FOGL then, currently own 100% of Loligo prospect (4.7bn boe) although BHP have 40% back-in rights, call it 60% and have Mkt Cap fully backed by cash right now...
FOGL Mkt Cap £100m odd versus CHAR £200m
But
FOGL EV £0m versus CHAR £100m ?
what price FOGL then, currently own 100% of Loligo prospect (4.7bn boe) although BHP have 40% back-in rights, call it 60% and have Mkt Cap fully backed by cash right now...
FOGL Mkt Cap £100m odd versus CHAR £200m
But
FOGL EV £0m versus CHAR £100m ?
From EK's Diaries just out :-
I was less successful on silver. I can’t make up my mind as to whether the market wants silver as an inflation/currency hedge or as a what. If the latter, the credit contraction scenario applies and silver drags behind gold. Well, the market this morning elected for the former. But not for long. I continue with my silver short. Note that silver does not even begin to hint at reaching its old high despite gold’s resolute departure into new high territory.
However, the copper short is a dead cert. There is no reason to close that – now at 407 cents a pound. Credit contraction means reduced demand for copper. Not difficult.
I was less successful on silver. I can’t make up my mind as to whether the market wants silver as an inflation/currency hedge or as a what. If the latter, the credit contraction scenario applies and silver drags behind gold. Well, the market this morning elected for the former. But not for long. I continue with my silver short. Note that silver does not even begin to hint at reaching its old high despite gold’s resolute departure into new high territory.
However, the copper short is a dead cert. There is no reason to close that – now at 407 cents a pound. Credit contraction means reduced demand for copper. Not difficult.
So much for all the doom merchants. Dow only off 100 and SPX only 20. Looking like a perfect opening for the equity bulls. Gold as I suggested looking like not confirming to upside so could see reversal. There were plenty of morons talking Gold down at 1500 and now talking it up at 1700. Lesson to learn don't listen to morons or do the opposite.
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Gold is still not moon-shooting or being confirmed by gold equities so I still rate this the equity market as simply being a bit of a financial market riot with the policy makers letting the market blow off steam and allowing the looting and mayhem to run it's course.
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-markets-voices-20110809,0,728959.story
The big barrier to QE3 is inflation expectations and commodity prices so oil being down sharply should help in bringing QE3 forward although maybe expectations of Bernanke at Jackson Hole are still premature?
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-markets-voices-20110809,0,728959.story
The big barrier to QE3 is inflation expectations and commodity prices so oil being down sharply should help in bringing QE3 forward although maybe expectations of Bernanke at Jackson Hole are still premature?
mining786
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pia786 - The idea I get from reading your posts is that in your view the market is going higher in due course. In circumstances like this the opportunity to buy cheap shares is here and now, so people who wait for everything to get sorted before they buy will be paying premium prices.
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I'm not being cavalier. I am only buying things backed almost 100% by cash/cashflow/world class assets and even that is incremental. Once a proper bottom has been formed and confirmed will be a better time to buy as no-one knows how long policy makers will let markets fall.
Paying a premium for lower risk and more visibility further down the road is probably the best strategy.
Paying a premium for lower risk and more visibility further down the road is probably the best strategy.
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The Kennedy Administration’s proposed solution to this dilemma was to try to lower longer-term interest rates while keeping short-term interest rates unchanged—an initiative now known as “Operation Twist” in homage to the dance craze then sweeping the nation. The idea was that business investment and housing demand were primarily determined by longer-term interest rates, while cross-currency arbitrage was primarily determined by short-term interest rate differentials across countries. Policymakers reasoned that, if longer-term interest rates could be lowered without affecting short-term yields, the weak U.S. economy could be stimulated without worsening the outflow of gold
RAW is market chatter – information that has not been formally tested through traditional journalistic channels (PRs etc). The story might be complete rubbish, but if we believe there is some substance to it we will say so. Either way, Reader Beware.
NH
Some sort of rumour the Fed is selling gold reserves?
NH
Some sort of rumour the Fed is selling gold reserves?
mining786
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Qe3 still on the horizon?
So 24 hours for Markets to digest Bernanke
VIX is back up to 43 but could it set a lower high?
http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^VIX&t=3m&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
Gold is back on the up AND some confirmation emerging from Gold STOCKS. Interesting.
http://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFN1E7791QG20110810
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...og/gold-stocks-yes-stocks-pop/article2125538/
Only thing to do with such uncertainty is to continue buying in gold PRODUCERS on about 1x cashflow (PGL,OMI,MWA) and explorers who the big boys have demonstrated they value e.g. CNR, TPJ, SRB and explorers with big explo potential are the ones historically which go up 50-100x in gold bull runs, that is 5000-10000%
VIX is back up to 43 but could it set a lower high?
http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^VIX&t=3m&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
Gold is back on the up AND some confirmation emerging from Gold STOCKS. Interesting.
http://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFN1E7791QG20110810
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...og/gold-stocks-yes-stocks-pop/article2125538/
Only thing to do with such uncertainty is to continue buying in gold PRODUCERS on about 1x cashflow (PGL,OMI,MWA) and explorers who the big boys have demonstrated they value e.g. CNR, TPJ, SRB and explorers with big explo potential are the ones historically which go up 50-100x in gold bull runs, that is 5000-10000%
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Simon Cawkwell aka Evil Knieval extract from his diaries yesterday
Further, some generally sensible citizens seem to have lost their marbles. For instance, our very own Matthew Parris disclosed a few days ago that he had purchased ten kilos of silver. That is about $10,000 worth. He wants it as a backstop. But why he, an intelligent man, reckons that it will prove practical is beyond me. Can you imagine entering a shop with an ounce ingot of silver currently worth c. $40 and asking for change? No? I thought not.
So, all in all, I am backing away from gold. It has been a great friend for this last ten years. But, when the likes of Matthew Parris espouse it as a domestic tool, it is time to say goodbye. Not, it must be stressed, immediately – there may well be one helluva spike on its way. Nor am I selling Orosur (OMI). But all other propositions had better be very good before I pay up.
Further, some generally sensible citizens seem to have lost their marbles. For instance, our very own Matthew Parris disclosed a few days ago that he had purchased ten kilos of silver. That is about $10,000 worth. He wants it as a backstop. But why he, an intelligent man, reckons that it will prove practical is beyond me. Can you imagine entering a shop with an ounce ingot of silver currently worth c. $40 and asking for change? No? I thought not.
So, all in all, I am backing away from gold. It has been a great friend for this last ten years. But, when the likes of Matthew Parris espouse it as a domestic tool, it is time to say goodbye. Not, it must be stressed, immediately – there may well be one helluva spike on its way. Nor am I selling Orosur (OMI). But all other propositions had better be very good before I pay up.
IT looks like the gold penny might finally have dropped. With the yellow metal hitting $US1752 ($1735) an ounce in afternoon Asian trade, there were astounding recoveries in at least some gold stocks as the Australian stockmarket ended the day.
The star of the gold show yesterday was West Australian producer Navigator Resources, up 54 per cent.
There were other stories to put smiles on investors' faces. The West African stars did well, with Perseus Mining up 6.3 per cent at the close, Azumah Resources putting on 7.45 per cent, Adamus Resources gaining 9.3 per cent and Gryphon Minerals adding 9.2 per cent.
Also in party mood were Troy Resources (up 5.6 per cent) and Kingsgate Consolidated adding 4.3 per cent, while even the battered OceanaGold got a 9.95 per cent price boost.
But, my goodness, hasn't it been a long time coming? And there were still plenty of gold stocks, both big (Newcrest Mining) and small (Morning Star Gold) that ended the day stuck in the red.
Until now, there have been two distinct entities. Gold is gold, but gold equities were just shares when the market went sour. Since mid-July, gold -- in Australian dollar terms -- has gained 18.2 per cent, but you would never know that from the gold stock performances, at least until yesterday.
In his note to clients on Monday, BGF Equities' Warwick Grigor said the problem with gold equities had been their being seen as a form of cash that could be raised when people panicked, as they did last week.
"Even though they are backed by gold, investors tend to treat gold shares like any other equity and you get the disconnection between the gold price and gold equities that we observe today," he said. "Nevertheless, I'd rather have gold shares than anything else right now."
As of yesterday afternoon, it seemed a good number of investors had arrived at the same conclusion.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...ly-start-to-lift/story-e6frg9ex-1226111981540
The star of the gold show yesterday was West Australian producer Navigator Resources, up 54 per cent.
There were other stories to put smiles on investors' faces. The West African stars did well, with Perseus Mining up 6.3 per cent at the close, Azumah Resources putting on 7.45 per cent, Adamus Resources gaining 9.3 per cent and Gryphon Minerals adding 9.2 per cent.
Also in party mood were Troy Resources (up 5.6 per cent) and Kingsgate Consolidated adding 4.3 per cent, while even the battered OceanaGold got a 9.95 per cent price boost.
But, my goodness, hasn't it been a long time coming? And there were still plenty of gold stocks, both big (Newcrest Mining) and small (Morning Star Gold) that ended the day stuck in the red.
Until now, there have been two distinct entities. Gold is gold, but gold equities were just shares when the market went sour. Since mid-July, gold -- in Australian dollar terms -- has gained 18.2 per cent, but you would never know that from the gold stock performances, at least until yesterday.
In his note to clients on Monday, BGF Equities' Warwick Grigor said the problem with gold equities had been their being seen as a form of cash that could be raised when people panicked, as they did last week.
"Even though they are backed by gold, investors tend to treat gold shares like any other equity and you get the disconnection between the gold price and gold equities that we observe today," he said. "Nevertheless, I'd rather have gold shares than anything else right now."
As of yesterday afternoon, it seemed a good number of investors had arrived at the same conclusion.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...ly-start-to-lift/story-e6frg9ex-1226111981540
mining786
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QE3 is inevitable
mining786
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Silver looking very poor technically
A small industry but could easily outperform gold in the long run.
DeadlyVenom
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http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk...onal-oil-companies-says-fox-davies-31823.html
Hit a low of 80 odd p a few days ago but picked up fast.
Hit a low of 80 odd p a few days ago but picked up fast.
Eagle_Eye
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BPC CEO resigns.
pia - any idea why?
pia - any idea why?
Eagle_Eye
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They said... "personal reason" which could be anything. He did cite health reasons for selling some shares few months ago.
I am holding cash for now as the markets may yet have few surprises for us especially since US has implicitly said that they do not think they will have significant growth for the next two years.
I was quite tempted to buy FOGL at around 44/45 last week. If BOR strikes by the end of 2011 then FOGL will fly for sure.
mining786
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So the gold bubble was looking fragile and has burst it reached its peak at over $1800k? That's what someone I know had to say today. I say that is WRONG!
The price of gold is now undergoing a correction. The price will soar higher this bull market ain't seen nothing yet. I remain bullish!
The price of gold is now undergoing a correction. The price will soar higher this bull market ain't seen nothing yet. I remain bullish!
Now—as for the gold stocks—NEVER in my 35 years in this industry have I ever seen them so incredibly disconnected from the underlying commodity that they produce. In the past 72 hours, the fundamentals for this industry group absolutely soared and yet the shares declined. The "pundits" would suggest that "the gold stocks are telling you that gold prices are about to decline!" and I might agree with that except the historical lag effect between gold and gold shares is about four to six weeks and this has been going on since January! What I see in here is that the gold price might decline in the shorter term but the shares are going to absolutely explode based on the projected earnings and price-earnings ratio multiple escalation brought about by the very simple fact that they are extracting and selling gold at $1,700 per ounce.
I am advising clients to buy senior gold stocks as a proxy for not only this undervaluation, but also because they have less than 1% of professional managers of pension and mutual funds involved in this space. If a mere 20% of the money now trading Apple, Cisco and IBM decide to move to the precious metals space, it would inhale the entire market cap of this sector
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article29814.html
I am advising clients to buy senior gold stocks as a proxy for not only this undervaluation, but also because they have less than 1% of professional managers of pension and mutual funds involved in this space. If a mere 20% of the money now trading Apple, Cisco and IBM decide to move to the precious metals space, it would inhale the entire market cap of this sector
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article29814.html
mining786
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You should have a read of this
http://www.walletpop.co.uk/2011/08/...aires-are-ripping-us-off-by-living-in-social/
http://www.walletpop.co.uk/2011/08/...aires-are-ripping-us-off-by-living-in-social/
DeadlyVenom
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^ Doesn't surprise me that they are asian 
mining786
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mining786
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^ Doesn't surprise me that they are asian
Haha!
mining786
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Warren Buffett
The sage of Omaha has been buying whilst others panic.
http://www.investorplace.com/2011/08/high-dividend-stocks-warren-buffett/
“Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful”.
- Warren Buffett
The sage of Omaha has been buying whilst others panic.
http://www.investorplace.com/2011/08/high-dividend-stocks-warren-buffett/
“Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful”.
- Warren Buffett
www.tdwaterhouse.co.uk
www.stockbrokers.barclays.co.uk
http://www.internaxx.lu/
I personally preferred TDWATERHOUSE as they are cheap and have decent UI and allow T+ settlement.
www.stockbrokers.barclays.co.uk
http://www.internaxx.lu/
I personally preferred TDWATERHOUSE as they are cheap and have decent UI and allow T+ settlement.
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More re FOGL.
This graphic illustrates the potential de-risking of FOGL prospects that could occur if BOR or FOGL have success in their upcoming drilling campaign. To get exposure to potential 10bn+ barrels of oil for £100m which is what FOGL is valued at is incredible risk-reward scenario IMO.
This graphic illustrates the potential de-risking of FOGL prospects that could occur if BOR or FOGL have success in their upcoming drilling campaign. To get exposure to potential 10bn+ barrels of oil for £100m which is what FOGL is valued at is incredible risk-reward scenario IMO.
On_the_up
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pia, what are the current timelines for intended drills for BOR/FOGL if you would be so kind.
http://minesite.com/news/serabi-min...lts-from-the-jardim-do-ouro-project-in-brazil
“The concept is being proven”, says Clive. “We’re getting very good grades, although in peaks and troughs. But it’s not really possible to join up the dots at the moment. There’ll be a second phase of drilling in which we’ll start looking for commercial resources.” One possibility is that one of the target zones the company has drilled most recently, Currutela, actually joins up with Palito in a single, larger structure. If that’s true, it would transform the economic potential of Jardim do Ouro, and surely, at last, lead to the re-rating of Serabi’s shares that patient investors have been waiting for.
“The concept is being proven”, says Clive. “We’re getting very good grades, although in peaks and troughs. But it’s not really possible to join up the dots at the moment. There’ll be a second phase of drilling in which we’ll start looking for commercial resources.” One possibility is that one of the target zones the company has drilled most recently, Currutela, actually joins up with Palito in a single, larger structure. If that’s true, it would transform the economic potential of Jardim do Ouro, and surely, at last, lead to the re-rating of Serabi’s shares that patient investors have been waiting for.
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On_the_up
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Thanks for that pia786. So a bit of time left to get in. It had been stuck in the 60p range for a while before the recent dip. It might settle back in that range again for a bit.
Investing legend Warren Buffett starts buying with bombed out shares 'on sale'
Read more: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/...-Buffett-goes-buying-spree.html#ixzz1VIXYtH3L
Read more: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/...-Buffett-goes-buying-spree.html#ixzz1VIXYtH3L
One of the most intelligent politicians in the US. Check out his stock portfolio. Heavy in Gold.
http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2011/06/ron-pauls-stock-portfolio.html
http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2011/06/ron-pauls-stock-portfolio.html
Eagle_Eye
ODI Debutant
- Joined
- Jan 11, 2010
- Runs
- 9,954
pia - you ever looked at SAC (sac oil) ?
684m shares in issue, 487m held by institutions/directors, 197m in freefloat. Currently around 6p with broker target at 28p. Directors buying recently.
Assets in:
DRC - farmed out to Total
Nigeria
http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk...pence-a-share-says-growth-equities-31949.html
684m shares in issue, 487m held by institutions/directors, 197m in freefloat. Currently around 6p with broker target at 28p. Directors buying recently.
Assets in:
DRC - farmed out to Total
Nigeria
http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk...pence-a-share-says-growth-equities-31949.html
Don't trust it, young financier, nigeria/congo. Screams risk. That Congo/Uganda basin i'd imagine you could play better with likes of DPL or TRP/GBP.
Came to market and dropped like a stone as someone was clearly desperate to get out. I don't think research report (paid for and not independent) is worth the paper it is written on.
This market is not out of the woods yet so I wouldn't be chasing popular stocks or those trading at big premia to real asset value. You can buy much better quality oilers with greater downside protection and much better upside potential e.g. FOGL trading around it's net cash (48p/share) but no account taken of it's 9000p/share of unrisked potential. Or GBP with £17m of net cash, daily oil production of c.100 bopd and potential 35p+/share of value from the Namibian acreage it is about to acquire on Friday.
Came to market and dropped like a stone as someone was clearly desperate to get out. I don't think research report (paid for and not independent) is worth the paper it is written on.
This market is not out of the woods yet so I wouldn't be chasing popular stocks or those trading at big premia to real asset value. You can buy much better quality oilers with greater downside protection and much better upside potential e.g. FOGL trading around it's net cash (48p/share) but no account taken of it's 9000p/share of unrisked potential. Or GBP with £17m of net cash, daily oil production of c.100 bopd and potential 35p+/share of value from the Namibian acreage it is about to acquire on Friday.
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there is lots of discussion about divergence of performance of gold equities and gold commodity and some of the divergence may be due to equity market investors not seeing the gold price rise as 'sustainable' or 'real' but worth noting the dramatic and tangible effects that even a short term gold spike has on some gold producing juniors
take PGL for example
Mkt Cap is £25m
It produces at 1500 oz per month and has a cash cost around $600/oz
At the start of the year the management would have been budgeting for say a gold price of $1250/oz over the year and expected cashflow of say $12m over the year.
Even a one month spike to $1750/oz would give them extra monthly cashflow of $750,000 ($500/oz x 1500oz) and annualised potentially c.$10m additional cashflow
For a £25m company that is huge and would fund significant capex to expand production and exploration.
I doubt many investors are paying attention to such real and tangible benefits of short term price action.
There is a court action decision pending (to Sept 4th) and I'd like to see some update from Management on commissioning of plant but PGL is looking very interesting here.
take PGL for example
Mkt Cap is £25m
It produces at 1500 oz per month and has a cash cost around $600/oz
At the start of the year the management would have been budgeting for say a gold price of $1250/oz over the year and expected cashflow of say $12m over the year.
Even a one month spike to $1750/oz would give them extra monthly cashflow of $750,000 ($500/oz x 1500oz) and annualised potentially c.$10m additional cashflow
For a £25m company that is huge and would fund significant capex to expand production and exploration.
I doubt many investors are paying attention to such real and tangible benefits of short term price action.
There is a court action decision pending (to Sept 4th) and I'd like to see some update from Management on commissioning of plant but PGL is looking very interesting here.
re PGL not sure if I have posted this before but Tom Bulford write-up on it from a year back... there has been some slippage in 'deliverables' since then but it might be reasonable to assume once they are on track Bulford may tip it officially in RHPS ?
http://www.moneyweek.com/investment-advice/penny-shares/penny-shares-small-cap-gold-miner-04514
All over the world old gold mines are being brought back to life. Long forgotten and neglected, flooded, overrun by the jungle and fallen into decay they nonetheless represent an enticing proposition at today’s record gold price. Few though have quite such a history as the Raub mine in central Malaysia.
It has a dark history of plunder and neglect. With joyous early developers being driven away by invading armies and a devastating collapse in the gold market.
Today though, with gold fetching $1,300/oz, one small gold miner has returned to the Raub district. And could be about to restore a mythic mine to its glory days – transforming the miner in the process.
How a gold mine achieved mythic status
In the early nineteenth century, according to folk tales, an old man and his two sons discovered gold fields while walking in an area about 100 km north of Kuala Lumpur. As the story goes, the men claimed the fields were so rich in gold that it could be scooped out of the earth by the handful. The town and the district soon became known by the Malay word raub, meaning scoop.
The news travelled as far as Australia, where a similarity was noted between the type of gold deposit found in the spine that runs through the Malay peninsula and in the gold fields of Victoria. The Brisbane based Raub syndicate was awarded a concession. And William Bibby, of the well known Liverpool family, was engaged by the syndicate and sent out to Malaysia.
Bibby prospected along the hills north of Kuala Lumpur and in 1893 stumbled across a particularly rich seam. He made his headquarters here at Bukit Koman and set about building the mine. It became a huge enterprise. Malaysia’s first power plant was built specifically for the mine which, by 1930, was employing eight thousand people.
But this week I met Dato’Sri Andrew Tai Keow Kam, Chairman, Chief Executive and major shareholder of Peninsular Gold (PGL), which has the mine today and he told me a little of the darker side of the mine’s history.
The dark tale of the forgotten gold mine
First he showed me photographs of the gold leaving the mine on the back of elephants and a scorecard detailing the results of a cricket match played in 1897. Colonial life was at its height. ‘After the match upon the first day a dinner was given by Mr. Bibby at his Bungalow, at which about 45 covers were laid and a “sing-song” afterwards was kept up until the small hours of the morning; a most enjoyable evening was spent.’
But the fun stopped when the Japanese invaded the Malay peninsula in 1941. The workers abandoned the mine, sabotaging the machinery as they hurried away. The Japanese caught the mine’s manager, took him to Changi jail in Singapore and demanded to know where the richest seams of gold lay. Refusing to reveal the secret, he was tortured and eventually executed.
After the war the Australians returned and mining resumed but in 1962, with gold fetching just $30 per ounce, it became uneconomic and was closed down – having yielded more than one million ounces of gold since 1889.
At $30/oz the mine certainly would not make a profit today. On top of a $50m investment in processing plant the mine’s cash costs are $550 per ounce of gold produced. But with each golden ounce now fetching $1300/oz the operation can most definitely make a profit today and this could provide a major windfall for shareholders of Peninsular Gold.
A return to the glory days
Since its first gold pour in February 2009 the plant has already yielded over 22,000 oz of gold, but Andrew Kam’s sights are set much higher than this. A plant upgrade will double the processing capacity, while further exploration should increase the mine’s reserves.
At present Peninsular has some 900,000oz of gold in all categories of which around a third is accounted for by the tailings left over from past mining. The grades are not high but the mining operation is straightforward and relatively cheap. For the future though Peninsular is hoping to find richer seams at depth and also develop a potentially larger deposit at Tersang, some twenty kms to the north.
Early drilling results have been encouraging and we can look forward to further exploration results next year. While that is going ahead the expansion of the plant has enabled broker Daniel Stewart to forecast a trebling of gold production over the next three years and, using a gold price of $1200, it values the operation today at 73p with scope for a higher valuation if more gold is found or the price rises yet further.
Whether cricket will once again be played at Raub, I don’t know. But Andrew Kam is determined to restore the mine to its former glory. I hope he succeeds.
Enter the Golden Ring of Fire
Of course it helps that gold continues to escalate. And with mounting mistrust of paper currencies, I doubt that Peninsular will be the only one bringing vast gold mines back into production.
http://www.moneyweek.com/investment-advice/penny-shares/penny-shares-small-cap-gold-miner-04514
All over the world old gold mines are being brought back to life. Long forgotten and neglected, flooded, overrun by the jungle and fallen into decay they nonetheless represent an enticing proposition at today’s record gold price. Few though have quite such a history as the Raub mine in central Malaysia.
It has a dark history of plunder and neglect. With joyous early developers being driven away by invading armies and a devastating collapse in the gold market.
Today though, with gold fetching $1,300/oz, one small gold miner has returned to the Raub district. And could be about to restore a mythic mine to its glory days – transforming the miner in the process.
How a gold mine achieved mythic status
In the early nineteenth century, according to folk tales, an old man and his two sons discovered gold fields while walking in an area about 100 km north of Kuala Lumpur. As the story goes, the men claimed the fields were so rich in gold that it could be scooped out of the earth by the handful. The town and the district soon became known by the Malay word raub, meaning scoop.
The news travelled as far as Australia, where a similarity was noted between the type of gold deposit found in the spine that runs through the Malay peninsula and in the gold fields of Victoria. The Brisbane based Raub syndicate was awarded a concession. And William Bibby, of the well known Liverpool family, was engaged by the syndicate and sent out to Malaysia.
Bibby prospected along the hills north of Kuala Lumpur and in 1893 stumbled across a particularly rich seam. He made his headquarters here at Bukit Koman and set about building the mine. It became a huge enterprise. Malaysia’s first power plant was built specifically for the mine which, by 1930, was employing eight thousand people.
But this week I met Dato’Sri Andrew Tai Keow Kam, Chairman, Chief Executive and major shareholder of Peninsular Gold (PGL), which has the mine today and he told me a little of the darker side of the mine’s history.
The dark tale of the forgotten gold mine
First he showed me photographs of the gold leaving the mine on the back of elephants and a scorecard detailing the results of a cricket match played in 1897. Colonial life was at its height. ‘After the match upon the first day a dinner was given by Mr. Bibby at his Bungalow, at which about 45 covers were laid and a “sing-song” afterwards was kept up until the small hours of the morning; a most enjoyable evening was spent.’
But the fun stopped when the Japanese invaded the Malay peninsula in 1941. The workers abandoned the mine, sabotaging the machinery as they hurried away. The Japanese caught the mine’s manager, took him to Changi jail in Singapore and demanded to know where the richest seams of gold lay. Refusing to reveal the secret, he was tortured and eventually executed.
After the war the Australians returned and mining resumed but in 1962, with gold fetching just $30 per ounce, it became uneconomic and was closed down – having yielded more than one million ounces of gold since 1889.
At $30/oz the mine certainly would not make a profit today. On top of a $50m investment in processing plant the mine’s cash costs are $550 per ounce of gold produced. But with each golden ounce now fetching $1300/oz the operation can most definitely make a profit today and this could provide a major windfall for shareholders of Peninsular Gold.
A return to the glory days
Since its first gold pour in February 2009 the plant has already yielded over 22,000 oz of gold, but Andrew Kam’s sights are set much higher than this. A plant upgrade will double the processing capacity, while further exploration should increase the mine’s reserves.
At present Peninsular has some 900,000oz of gold in all categories of which around a third is accounted for by the tailings left over from past mining. The grades are not high but the mining operation is straightforward and relatively cheap. For the future though Peninsular is hoping to find richer seams at depth and also develop a potentially larger deposit at Tersang, some twenty kms to the north.
Early drilling results have been encouraging and we can look forward to further exploration results next year. While that is going ahead the expansion of the plant has enabled broker Daniel Stewart to forecast a trebling of gold production over the next three years and, using a gold price of $1200, it values the operation today at 73p with scope for a higher valuation if more gold is found or the price rises yet further.
Whether cricket will once again be played at Raub, I don’t know. But Andrew Kam is determined to restore the mine to its former glory. I hope he succeeds.
Enter the Golden Ring of Fire
Of course it helps that gold continues to escalate. And with mounting mistrust of paper currencies, I doubt that Peninsular will be the only one bringing vast gold mines back into production.
Eagle_Eye
ODI Debutant
- Joined
- Jan 11, 2010
- Runs
- 9,954
USOP shares suspended on the PLUS market.... boom or bust... lets see.
I like Gold miners in general but no idea in particular on NCM.
It is an Aussie share so might be best reading an Aussie stock BB on it ?
http://www.hotcopper.com.au/NCM
It is an Aussie share so might be best reading an Aussie stock BB on it ?
http://www.hotcopper.com.au/NCM
Eagle_Eye
ODI Debutant
- Joined
- Jan 11, 2010
- Runs
- 9,954
USOP yet to publish 2010 audited accounts, in breach of rule 78 of PLUS.
Pia - your suspicions of US and Canadian Oil and Gas plays are well founded.
Pia - your suspicions of US and Canadian Oil and Gas plays are well founded.
PGL had a 'disappointing' trading update, looks like commissioning of some of their CIL plant was delayed. However exploration results still look very encouraging and production should come back at some point. Chart still forming a nice base so I still intend adding over time.
Was not convinced we were in for gold moonshoot just yet so was not aggressively buying producers yet.
Was not convinced we were in for gold moonshoot just yet so was not aggressively buying producers yet.
goldleaf
Debutant
- Joined
- Mar 26, 2009
- Runs
- 290
I'm currently holding Lloyds, gkp, rkh, pxs, fdi, xel.
What are you lot holding?
What are you lot holding?
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