jaspa888
Local Club Star
- Joined
- Aug 1, 2007
- Runs
- 1,984
RMP was always just a bit too risky for me. It will be interesting to see if they hit the deadline for puntland (I don't think they will and another extension will be required).
-
Contact the PP Team
Buying shares?
- Thread starter DeadlyVenom
- Start date
Eagle_Eye
ODI Debutant
- Joined
- Jan 11, 2010
- Runs
- 9,954
S28- Appreciate your thoughts on BEM. You are right, they need to build 87km train track to the nearest port if they want to go into production. My feeling is that they would like to prove up the resource as quickly as possible and sell it onto the highest bidder.
The chairman has no clue and overdoes the sell..... Watched the video of recent presentation and I can see how some people would be put off.
The chairman has no clue and overdoes the sell..... Watched the video of recent presentation and I can see how some people would be put off.
Eagle_Eye
ODI Debutant
- Joined
- Jan 11, 2010
- Runs
- 9,954
If they extend....... I will sell range. It means it's never going to happen and I can see lot of other people do likewise. PL understands that very well and so do AO. I think they will withhold news till they reach TD.
CPX - very exciting AGM statement today on two counts
1. they don't normally make a statement other than the formal business
2. the business is going well on a number of fronts and most exciting is this emerging opportunity in vehicle stop-start systems (supercapacitors could be the magic bullet which helps Electric Vehicles overcome some of their limitations with regard to Battery performance, been doing some background research on Maxwell Technologies who are experiencing great growth in their own capacitor division and i suspect CPX may have advantage in terms of size/weight? coming from mobile phone angle ?)
CPX IPOed at 100p odd and current Broker targets out there of 32 and 50p prior to todays news so i think it is a bargain at 15p (Mkt Cap about £10m)
The royalties from Murata relationship (1m supercapacitors a month production @ $3.50 a pop and 6% royalty = potential $3m p.a. straight to the bottom line which i'd value at 20-30x
Commenting at the Group's AGM in Sydney today, Wednesday November 23rd, CAP-XX Chairman, Michael Quinn said:
"I am delighted to announce that revenues for the first four months of our financial year, to 31 October, are 23% ahead of the corresponding period of 2010/11. Moreover, this growth reflects an underlying 37% increase in product volume and US$ value of sales, before the adverse foreign exchange adjustment. The figures also include a small maiden contribution from the launch of the Murata supercapacitor and I am very encouraged by Murata's plan to ramp up production to one million units a month by the calendar year-end.
I am are also encouraged by the level of interest shown by Automotive Tier-1 suppliers, both from Asia and Europe in our large supercapacitor, developed for automotive stop-start applications. We have successfully demonstrated the product on the European Drive Cycle, showing a material extension to battery life and improvements in starting and sub-zero performance over battery only systems. We are currently examining partnering opportunities for this exciting segment.
Finally we are pleased to announce that Murata has independently verified the performance of our surface-mount (SMD) supercapacitor device for high-volume mobile telephone handsets and other consumer electronic products and we look forward to a successful discussions with parties with respect to licensing production."
1. they don't normally make a statement other than the formal business
2. the business is going well on a number of fronts and most exciting is this emerging opportunity in vehicle stop-start systems (supercapacitors could be the magic bullet which helps Electric Vehicles overcome some of their limitations with regard to Battery performance, been doing some background research on Maxwell Technologies who are experiencing great growth in their own capacitor division and i suspect CPX may have advantage in terms of size/weight? coming from mobile phone angle ?)
CPX IPOed at 100p odd and current Broker targets out there of 32 and 50p prior to todays news so i think it is a bargain at 15p (Mkt Cap about £10m)
The royalties from Murata relationship (1m supercapacitors a month production @ $3.50 a pop and 6% royalty = potential $3m p.a. straight to the bottom line which i'd value at 20-30x
Commenting at the Group's AGM in Sydney today, Wednesday November 23rd, CAP-XX Chairman, Michael Quinn said:
"I am delighted to announce that revenues for the first four months of our financial year, to 31 October, are 23% ahead of the corresponding period of 2010/11. Moreover, this growth reflects an underlying 37% increase in product volume and US$ value of sales, before the adverse foreign exchange adjustment. The figures also include a small maiden contribution from the launch of the Murata supercapacitor and I am very encouraged by Murata's plan to ramp up production to one million units a month by the calendar year-end.
I am are also encouraged by the level of interest shown by Automotive Tier-1 suppliers, both from Asia and Europe in our large supercapacitor, developed for automotive stop-start applications. We have successfully demonstrated the product on the European Drive Cycle, showing a material extension to battery life and improvements in starting and sub-zero performance over battery only systems. We are currently examining partnering opportunities for this exciting segment.
Finally we are pleased to announce that Murata has independently verified the performance of our surface-mount (SMD) supercapacitor device for high-volume mobile telephone handsets and other consumer electronic products and we look forward to a successful discussions with parties with respect to licensing production."
Eagle_Eye
ODI Debutant
- Joined
- Jan 11, 2010
- Runs
- 9,954
You got to hand it to SXX board.... timely buy by the BOD and reminder about the assay results next week.... Thats one way to catch out profit takers and shorters.
jaspa888
Local Club Star
- Joined
- Aug 1, 2007
- Runs
- 1,984
Quality BoD. Also very experienced and have ****ed the shorters over nicely. On a day when the AIM All Share is at an 19 month low, SXX show how the market can be manipulated in the company's favour.
It will be interesting to see the impact on SP of assay results because they are largely built in IMO. There is a lot of good newsflow to come from all the test drills over the next six months, though there will inevitaby be share placing(s) along the way as the BoD take advantage of the high SP.
Its a difficult one to quantify. With no JORC in place, is the company really worth £350m?
It will be interesting to see the impact on SP of assay results because they are largely built in IMO. There is a lot of good newsflow to come from all the test drills over the next six months, though there will inevitaby be share placing(s) along the way as the BoD take advantage of the high SP.
Its a difficult one to quantify. With no JORC in place, is the company really worth £350m?
Last night I went to Proactive Investors forum. I noticed several desi faces in the crowd which is quite unusual for a Proactive do. Did anyone else from here turn up ?
I thought the SLN Silence Therapeutics and AGL Angle Plc presentations were particularly good.
AGL some would even describe it as mind-blowing !
One thing which I picked up speaking to the CEO later was that one of the companies they were 'talking to' was Roche. If they were able to pull off a deal with a name such as that the shares would rocket although I expect given their bad experience of partnering with Origio on Novocellus they want to try to take this forward themselves as much as possible.
AGL is currently c.75p but Cenkos issued a 200p price target Buy note yesterday.
200p is sum of the parts valuation. With Parsortix valued at 110p ; Geomerics at 62p and Novocellus at 28p.
The interesting thing is the CEO mooted the possibility on questioning of selling their interest in Geomerics and giving a cash dividend to shareholders. So if Cenkos valuation is correct you'd be in effect paying 13p (75p - 62p) for a stake in Parsortix which is currently worth 110p (according to Cenkos) but could be worth a whole lot more.
For those who don't know Geomerics supply computer software middleware i.e. a lighting engine at $50-100k a pop per game per platform in such hugely successful franchises as Battlefield 3 and Need for Speed so it's a proven technology with products validated and selling so could well be worth a mint.
I thought the SLN Silence Therapeutics and AGL Angle Plc presentations were particularly good.
AGL some would even describe it as mind-blowing !
One thing which I picked up speaking to the CEO later was that one of the companies they were 'talking to' was Roche. If they were able to pull off a deal with a name such as that the shares would rocket although I expect given their bad experience of partnering with Origio on Novocellus they want to try to take this forward themselves as much as possible.
AGL is currently c.75p but Cenkos issued a 200p price target Buy note yesterday.
200p is sum of the parts valuation. With Parsortix valued at 110p ; Geomerics at 62p and Novocellus at 28p.
The interesting thing is the CEO mooted the possibility on questioning of selling their interest in Geomerics and giving a cash dividend to shareholders. So if Cenkos valuation is correct you'd be in effect paying 13p (75p - 62p) for a stake in Parsortix which is currently worth 110p (according to Cenkos) but could be worth a whole lot more.
For those who don't know Geomerics supply computer software middleware i.e. a lighting engine at $50-100k a pop per game per platform in such hugely successful franchises as Battlefield 3 and Need for Speed so it's a proven technology with products validated and selling so could well be worth a mint.
Eagle_Eye
ODI Debutant
- Joined
- Jan 11, 2010
- Runs
- 9,954
S28 - which side AGL want to partner with Roche... Novocellus or Parsortix?
Eagle_Eye
ODI Debutant
- Joined
- Jan 11, 2010
- Runs
- 9,954
I knew it!!..... I had a hunch about this couple of months ago...
Illumina is brining out cancer cell capture product early next year... see post #1696
Roche and Illumina are locked in battle with sequencing technology platforms......
Last edited:
Eagle_Eye
ODI Debutant
- Joined
- Jan 11, 2010
- Runs
- 9,954
Jaspa - how good is this AST RNS? Is it the stonker you were hoping for?
Clue was there when JE put his share into a SIPP week or so ago!!
Clue was there when JE put his share into a SIPP week or so ago!!
This one is well worth a look especially because Tom Bulford of RHPS has said he is going to do an update on it in next weekends RHPS and he already has an 80p buy in price on it.
FOGL Falkland Oil & Gas
Some simple and simplistic calcs.
50p (Mkt Cap : £102m ; Cash : c.$150m or £90m)
Recent Investor Presentation issued November 2011 http://www.fogl.com/fogl/uploads/companypresentations/CorporatePresentationnonUSviewer.pdf
FOGL represents a simple binary play on their upcoming drilling campaign in the South Falklands Basin (expected January 2012-June 2012)
Their first target will be a potential 4.7 Billion barrel prospect 'Loligo' where if they strike the oil value would be of the order of $470 Billion using current oil price of $100 per barrel.
Industry 'rule of thumb' valuations for in-situ proven resources tends to be of the order of $1-10 per barrel. So a successful strike at Loligo could be worth $4.7bn to $47bn i.e. in share price terms for FOGL 1500p to 15000p (£15 to £150 per share)
According to geological studies etc the Chance of Succes (CoS) is put at about 10% for such a wildcat exploration drill. Thus based on probabilities the FOGL share price 'should' trade at 150-1500p in the run up to the drill?
As an example when FOGL were drilling the Toroa prospect last year which had potential success outcome of £35/share FOGL shares traded at a peak of £2.50 thus reflecting market based assessment of the risk as being a say 6-7% CoS near enough the expected geological CoS.
At 50p FOGL is currently pricing the potential £50-100/share success case at only say a 0.5-1.0% CoS well below the expected geological CoS.
FOGL Falkland Oil & Gas
Some simple and simplistic calcs.
50p (Mkt Cap : £102m ; Cash : c.$150m or £90m)
Recent Investor Presentation issued November 2011 http://www.fogl.com/fogl/uploads/companypresentations/CorporatePresentationnonUSviewer.pdf
FOGL represents a simple binary play on their upcoming drilling campaign in the South Falklands Basin (expected January 2012-June 2012)
Their first target will be a potential 4.7 Billion barrel prospect 'Loligo' where if they strike the oil value would be of the order of $470 Billion using current oil price of $100 per barrel.
Industry 'rule of thumb' valuations for in-situ proven resources tends to be of the order of $1-10 per barrel. So a successful strike at Loligo could be worth $4.7bn to $47bn i.e. in share price terms for FOGL 1500p to 15000p (£15 to £150 per share)
According to geological studies etc the Chance of Succes (CoS) is put at about 10% for such a wildcat exploration drill. Thus based on probabilities the FOGL share price 'should' trade at 150-1500p in the run up to the drill?
As an example when FOGL were drilling the Toroa prospect last year which had potential success outcome of £35/share FOGL shares traded at a peak of £2.50 thus reflecting market based assessment of the risk as being a say 6-7% CoS near enough the expected geological CoS.
At 50p FOGL is currently pricing the potential £50-100/share success case at only say a 0.5-1.0% CoS well below the expected geological CoS.
This one is well worth a look especially because Tom Bulford of RHPS has said he is going to do an update on it in next weekends RHPS and he already has an 80p buy in price on it.
FOGL Falkland Oil & Gas
Some simple and simplistic calcs.
50p (Mkt Cap : £102m ; Cash : c.$150m or £90m)
Recent Investor Presentation issued November 2011 http://www.fogl.com/fogl/uploads/companypresentations/CorporatePresentationnonUSviewer.pdf
FOGL represents a simple binary play on their upcoming drilling campaign in the South Falklands Basin (expected January 2012-June 2012)
Their first target will be a potential 4.7 Billion barrel prospect 'Loligo' where if they strike the oil value would be of the order of $470 Billion using current oil price of $100 per barrel.
Industry 'rule of thumb' valuations for in-situ proven resources tends to be of the order of $1-10 per barrel. So a successful strike at Loligo could be worth $4.7bn to $47bn i.e. in share price terms for FOGL 1500p to 15000p (£15 to £150 per share)
According to geological studies etc the Chance of Succes (CoS) is put at about 10% for such a wildcat exploration drill. Thus based on probabilities the FOGL share price 'should' trade at 150-1500p in the run up to the drill?
As an example when FOGL were drilling the Toroa prospect last year which had potential success outcome of £35/share FOGL shares traded at a peak of £2.50 thus reflecting market based assessment of the risk as being a say 6-7% CoS near enough the expected geological CoS.
At 50p FOGL is currently pricing the potential £50-100/share success case at only say a 0.5-1.0% CoS well below the expected geological CoS.
FOGL Falkland Oil & Gas
Some simple and simplistic calcs.
50p (Mkt Cap : £102m ; Cash : c.$150m or £90m)
Recent Investor Presentation issued November 2011 http://www.fogl.com/fogl/uploads/companypresentations/CorporatePresentationnonUSviewer.pdf
FOGL represents a simple binary play on their upcoming drilling campaign in the South Falklands Basin (expected January 2012-June 2012)
Their first target will be a potential 4.7 Billion barrel prospect 'Loligo' where if they strike the oil value would be of the order of $470 Billion using current oil price of $100 per barrel.
Industry 'rule of thumb' valuations for in-situ proven resources tends to be of the order of $1-10 per barrel. So a successful strike at Loligo could be worth $4.7bn to $47bn i.e. in share price terms for FOGL 1500p to 15000p (£15 to £150 per share)
According to geological studies etc the Chance of Succes (CoS) is put at about 10% for such a wildcat exploration drill. Thus based on probabilities the FOGL share price 'should' trade at 150-1500p in the run up to the drill?
As an example when FOGL were drilling the Toroa prospect last year which had potential success outcome of £35/share FOGL shares traded at a peak of £2.50 thus reflecting market based assessment of the risk as being a say 6-7% CoS near enough the expected geological CoS.
At 50p FOGL is currently pricing the potential £50-100/share success case at only say a 0.5-1.0% CoS well below the expected geological CoS.
delboy101
Debutant
- Joined
- Oct 24, 2011
- Runs
- 11
Does that mean it worth buying pre drill
DeadlyVenom
Senior Test Player
- Joined
- Jul 17, 2010
- Runs
- 25,377
- Post of the Week
- 1
If BOR strike in late January then the SP will increase. Now is a good time to be in FOGL.
I only ever buy pre-drill or post-drill. The most risky part is during the drill and I'd be selling some whilst they're drilling. You don't want to be trapped in a oil and gas stock which announces drilling results IMO. Most wildcat drills fail they have 10% Chance of Success but 90% Chance of Failure.
delboy101
Debutant
- Joined
- Oct 24, 2011
- Runs
- 11
That mean I be buying Monday and keeping till mid dec ?or even better sell them week on Monday after Toms dec
jaspa888
Local Club Star
- Joined
- Aug 1, 2007
- Runs
- 1,984
Stunning assay results from SXX. Hope some of you guys are in.
AST looking good too though Eng will inevitably **** it up PR-wise- he always does.
RRL confirm Puntland for next 30 days.
AST looking good too though Eng will inevitably **** it up PR-wise- he always does.
RRL confirm Puntland for next 30 days.
delboy101
Debutant
- Joined
- Oct 24, 2011
- Runs
- 11
I sold sxx early last week at a very small profit ! Wish I kept hold ! May buy in today ! Ore placing sent share down! Fogl not moving much either
Eagle_Eye
ODI Debutant
- Joined
- Jan 11, 2010
- Runs
- 9,954
RRL - They finally sorted out the bun fights and its Plug and return for 1st Georgia well.....
Puntland is happening sometime this month.
Puntland is happening sometime this month.
Eagle_Eye
ODI Debutant
- Joined
- Jan 11, 2010
- Runs
- 9,954
FOGL - BHPB no longer have the option of increasing stake upto 40% in lolligo. That means BHBP no longer have an interest which is a big negative and maybe why FOGL has plummeted back into the 40s. On the otherhand, it provides a clear path for a more committed partner to come on board with both parties having a decent stake...
delboy101
Debutant
- Joined
- Oct 24, 2011
- Runs
- 11
Think it is time to sell all our current holdings and if we have any cash under the mattress to put it all into FOGL!!!
Last edited:
jaspa888
Local Club Star
- Joined
- Aug 1, 2007
- Runs
- 1,984
Yep, took less than 72 hours. His fancy conference call was supposed to showcase the new discoveries but all that came out of it instead was that he has no clue how to proceed with the business, and that he has no plan b when it comes to raising new investment / working capital.
jaspa888
Local Club Star
- Joined
- Aug 1, 2007
- Runs
- 1,984
Strong rumours that PXS will announce a new major deal in it webcast Q&A
delboy101
Debutant
- Joined
- Oct 24, 2011
- Runs
- 11
jaspa888
Local Club Star
- Joined
- Aug 1, 2007
- Runs
- 1,984
Always dangerous buying on a spike. But PXS has lots of potential and has been linked to major deals in the past. Read some of the PXS posts in this thread for heads up.
The SP has been as high as 23p so current SP still has lots of upside.
Eagle_Eye
ODI Debutant
- Joined
- Jan 11, 2010
- Runs
- 9,954
Why not announce in an RNS like how normal companies would do it........ Don't trust the PXS ceo.... Has he bought any shares lately? I have stopped following PXS story.
jaspa888
Local Club Star
- Joined
- Aug 1, 2007
- Runs
- 1,984
They cant announce RNS themselves because of client confidentiality, apparently.
Moon makes Eng look like Bill Gates. He has squillions of share options but is the most PR-gaff prone CEO out there. SP goes up, he announces a placing at 70% discount. SP goes up, he sells a load of shares, then announces a further placing. BUT he has a great product.
Eagle_Eye
ODI Debutant
- Joined
- Jan 11, 2010
- Runs
- 9,954
Jaspa - The worst thing about PXS is the CEO.... I am amazed, shareholders haven't been on his case and got rid of him.
I am looking at XEL more closely, do you happen to know how much they propose to produce per day if they go into production? I am looking for flow rates from 2011 RNS released and could only find Max of 3100 bopd. I was under the impression it was 20k+ bopd.
I am looking at XEL more closely, do you happen to know how much they propose to produce per day if they go into production? I am looking for flow rates from 2011 RNS released and could only find Max of 3100 bopd. I was under the impression it was 20k+ bopd.
Tom Bulford of RHPS is in nostalgic mood this week as he'll be issuing his 100th RHPS monthly newsletter having started in 2003
Three important penny share “tells”
Practice has not made me perfect. But it has, I think, made me a lot better. I’m a stronger writer and I’ve honed my skills at finding small companies that really have the potential to make good money. Today, I look for three things:
1. A sudden breakthrough. Nothing propels a penny share price upwards quicker than an oil strike or a new wonder drug. Two of our biggest successes have been Gulf Keystone, which struck oil in Kurdistan, and drug developer Verona Pharma.
2. A great product. I like nothing more than an innovative product, with good profit margins, limited competition and a big potential market. Software Radio was a perfect example, as was Clearstream Technologies.
3. A powerful theme. Every now and again investors get swept up by a powerful theme. The whole dotcom boom was one and the recent natural resources boom was another, helping us to a quick gain on emeralds producer Gemfields. If you can spot these themes you can make money fast.
The cast of penny share candidates is ever changing. Looking back, I have tipped many shares such as Gourmet Holdings, Phosphagenics and Fayrewood, which are no longer on the stock market. But as companies disappear, they are replaced by a fresh crop, and the opportunity to discover potential new winners never ends. This is why I live for the small company market.
As I head in to my next 100 editions of Red Hot Penny Shares I feel the thrill of the chase as much as ever. The penny share world is a kaleidoscope of opportunity and I’m very excited about hunting down a new set of stocks for you in 2012. Look out for your December issue on Friday. It’s a cracker!
Three important penny share “tells”
Practice has not made me perfect. But it has, I think, made me a lot better. I’m a stronger writer and I’ve honed my skills at finding small companies that really have the potential to make good money. Today, I look for three things:
1. A sudden breakthrough. Nothing propels a penny share price upwards quicker than an oil strike or a new wonder drug. Two of our biggest successes have been Gulf Keystone, which struck oil in Kurdistan, and drug developer Verona Pharma.
2. A great product. I like nothing more than an innovative product, with good profit margins, limited competition and a big potential market. Software Radio was a perfect example, as was Clearstream Technologies.
3. A powerful theme. Every now and again investors get swept up by a powerful theme. The whole dotcom boom was one and the recent natural resources boom was another, helping us to a quick gain on emeralds producer Gemfields. If you can spot these themes you can make money fast.
The cast of penny share candidates is ever changing. Looking back, I have tipped many shares such as Gourmet Holdings, Phosphagenics and Fayrewood, which are no longer on the stock market. But as companies disappear, they are replaced by a fresh crop, and the opportunity to discover potential new winners never ends. This is why I live for the small company market.
As I head in to my next 100 editions of Red Hot Penny Shares I feel the thrill of the chase as much as ever. The penny share world is a kaleidoscope of opportunity and I’m very excited about hunting down a new set of stocks for you in 2012. Look out for your December issue on Friday. It’s a cracker!
AGL, CPX, AER, GON seem to tick several of those boxes.
AGL - 1. Breakthrough - Parsortix development in last few weeks. 2. Great / simple product - check 3. Cancer diagnostics is a big theme.
CPX - 1. Breakthrough - Murata starting volume production. 2. Innovative product. 3. Energy saving / more intelligent use is a major theme.
AER - 1. Breakthrough - Chinese distribution deal? 2. Innovative product. 3. Fighting airborne viruses in hospitals
GON - 1. Breakthrough? - Zynga IPO in a few weeks (biggest internet IPO since Google) bringing attention to MMORPG 2. Maybe not all that innovative but some of their games are winning industry accolades. 3. China + Internet - two pretty huge themes ?
AGL - 1. Breakthrough - Parsortix development in last few weeks. 2. Great / simple product - check 3. Cancer diagnostics is a big theme.
CPX - 1. Breakthrough - Murata starting volume production. 2. Innovative product. 3. Energy saving / more intelligent use is a major theme.
AER - 1. Breakthrough - Chinese distribution deal? 2. Innovative product. 3. Fighting airborne viruses in hospitals
GON - 1. Breakthrough? - Zynga IPO in a few weeks (biggest internet IPO since Google) bringing attention to MMORPG 2. Maybe not all that innovative but some of their games are winning industry accolades. 3. China + Internet - two pretty huge themes ?
Eagle_Eye
ODI Debutant
- Joined
- Jan 11, 2010
- Runs
- 9,954
XEL Bod need to go on some investor relations training.....
jaspa888
Local Club Star
- Joined
- Aug 1, 2007
- Runs
- 1,984
Agreed.
I think they should be bracing themselves for a hostile takeover at these prices.
I think they should be bracing themselves for a hostile takeover at these prices.
Eagle_Eye
ODI Debutant
- Joined
- Jan 11, 2010
- Runs
- 9,954
It will be EO all over again!
I am just thankful I did not top up few days ago!
I am just thankful I did not top up few days ago!
Last edited:
jaspa888
Local Club Star
- Joined
- Aug 1, 2007
- Runs
- 1,984
IMO now is the time for a topup. The SP is at pre drill prices and I really can't see it dropping much more. Indeed the bounce from DECC approval makes this a strong buy at this price IMO.
Eagle_Eye
ODI Debutant
- Joined
- Jan 11, 2010
- Runs
- 9,954
The price will now drift downwards .... DECC approval is not a certainty either and the RNS alludes to that. Funding for full scale production is an issue with DECC and they have tried to placate them by extending the schedule to cover some costs from income received from initial production..... will that be enough?
To me it all points towards a takeover now.... just what will be the offer?
To me it all points towards a takeover now.... just what will be the offer?
March 2009 ? Dash for Trash ?
Look at the risers list , it is like Night of the Living Dead with Zombie companies springing back to life for no reason on no news oftentimes.
http://www.lse.co.uk/share-risers.asp
Those who own decent quality stuff must wonder what the hell is going on.
Look at the risers list , it is like Night of the Living Dead with Zombie companies springing back to life for no reason on no news oftentimes.
http://www.lse.co.uk/share-risers.asp
Those who own decent quality stuff must wonder what the hell is going on.
AGL - Angle Plc
A very good write up on Stockopedia
http://www.stockopedia.co.uk/content/a-positive-angle-for-success-62421/
A very good write up on Stockopedia
http://www.stockopedia.co.uk/content/a-positive-angle-for-success-62421/
DeadlyVenom
Senior Test Player
- Joined
- Jul 17, 2010
- Runs
- 25,377
- Post of the Week
- 1
This months RHPS is out, mentions FOGL again and Wildhorse Energy (whe) also seems like an interesting story. I think Dr Samar Mubarak spoke about burning the coal underground in the Thar desert aswell.
DeadlyVenom
Senior Test Player
- Joined
- Jul 17, 2010
- Runs
- 25,377
- Post of the Week
- 1
Eagle_Eye
ODI Debutant
- Joined
- Jan 11, 2010
- Runs
- 9,954
Indeed he has.... I think one of his companies is doing it or plans to at one of the bigger blocks at Thar... Sindh coal board are not too hopeful though but that could just be pathetic Pakistani politics at play...
He is also the one responsible for scuppering the RikkoDiq **** take of a deal in Balochistan.
Pretty disappointing selections from Bulford. At this time of the year I reckon he probably wants to keep his 'good ones' for the New Year tips newsletter.
FOGL looks to be forming a nice solid base for a decent move in New Year. I'd expect quite a few of the press tipsters to go for it as their choice for 2012 because the risk reward is so good. Either 0 or 2000% potential.
FOGL looks to be forming a nice solid base for a decent move in New Year. I'd expect quite a few of the press tipsters to go for it as their choice for 2012 because the risk reward is so good. Either 0 or 2000% potential.
Received this email today might explain some recent shenanigans regarding share PRICES being totally out of sync with share VALUES
Now you may ask why have small caps joined in the rally. Well some have. But here are two points to bear in mind when looking at small caps. Firstly when money hits the market it hits the most liquid stocks first. So small caps also lag. But secondly, and I ask you not to shed too many tears for them, some of London's market makers are in trouble. Oh dear poor souls. For FTSE 350 stocks we no longer use MMs to set prices. There is a matching order book. But in small caps market makers make prices and need to keep capital on their book to cover whatever positions they may have open.
The word on the street is that the MMs have taken a beating this Autumn and that one or two are in serous merde financially. When this happens, MMs will be ordered to reduce their net exposure to the market. This means selling down open positions irrespective of price. That causes small caps to tank. But it also means that if there is a sudden spurt of demand the MMs just have no stock to supply and, given the volatility of markets, they are loathe to go short so they a) try to avoid dealing by switching off electronic links to execution only brokers meaning that you can only buy or sell by phone and b) they will be forced to mark prices sharply higher.
We saw this last week with two stocks with which we are involved. Athol Gold & Value shares were smashed Monday to Thursday as one MM cut his position simply by selling line after line of shares at the NMS to other MMs. There was no-one else selling apart from a few poor souls spooked by the collapse. The fall in Athol's share price was caused by restrictions on the capital exposure at one firm (I do know which but won't say) and nothing else. The shares reached 0.25p at one stage. So on Friday a statement was forced upon Athol and the shares zoomed ahead by 45% (65% at one point) as buyers went in and with MMs holding sod all stock and terrified of going short (given that the statement alluded to potential other news).
Elsewhere we tried to buy more shares in Ariana. We were actually buying shares in a raft of gold stocks last week including Norseman and Ariana. But the MMS were all short and so we were quoted silly prices for small lines. Being short the MMs responded to demand by actually cutting prices (so reducing the nominal size of their book short) and trying to spook a few folks into selling.
Now market makers argue that they perform a useful role in supplying liquidity. It seems obvious that they are a) not supplying liquidity and b) that they are posting prices which bear no relation to actual supply and demand. Can someone please explain in less than 100 words what these folks are actually doing to benefit the wider investment community?
Now you may ask why have small caps joined in the rally. Well some have. But here are two points to bear in mind when looking at small caps. Firstly when money hits the market it hits the most liquid stocks first. So small caps also lag. But secondly, and I ask you not to shed too many tears for them, some of London's market makers are in trouble. Oh dear poor souls. For FTSE 350 stocks we no longer use MMs to set prices. There is a matching order book. But in small caps market makers make prices and need to keep capital on their book to cover whatever positions they may have open.
The word on the street is that the MMs have taken a beating this Autumn and that one or two are in serous merde financially. When this happens, MMs will be ordered to reduce their net exposure to the market. This means selling down open positions irrespective of price. That causes small caps to tank. But it also means that if there is a sudden spurt of demand the MMs just have no stock to supply and, given the volatility of markets, they are loathe to go short so they a) try to avoid dealing by switching off electronic links to execution only brokers meaning that you can only buy or sell by phone and b) they will be forced to mark prices sharply higher.
We saw this last week with two stocks with which we are involved. Athol Gold & Value shares were smashed Monday to Thursday as one MM cut his position simply by selling line after line of shares at the NMS to other MMs. There was no-one else selling apart from a few poor souls spooked by the collapse. The fall in Athol's share price was caused by restrictions on the capital exposure at one firm (I do know which but won't say) and nothing else. The shares reached 0.25p at one stage. So on Friday a statement was forced upon Athol and the shares zoomed ahead by 45% (65% at one point) as buyers went in and with MMs holding sod all stock and terrified of going short (given that the statement alluded to potential other news).
Elsewhere we tried to buy more shares in Ariana. We were actually buying shares in a raft of gold stocks last week including Norseman and Ariana. But the MMS were all short and so we were quoted silly prices for small lines. Being short the MMs responded to demand by actually cutting prices (so reducing the nominal size of their book short) and trying to spook a few folks into selling.
Now market makers argue that they perform a useful role in supplying liquidity. It seems obvious that they are a) not supplying liquidity and b) that they are posting prices which bear no relation to actual supply and demand. Can someone please explain in less than 100 words what these folks are actually doing to benefit the wider investment community?
and this on the same tenor in the Sunday Times Business today apparently
Sunday Times Business....
The City’s new big fear: a sudden bounce-back
In an atmosphere of general concern in the City of London, there is one fear that should not be underestimated: the fear of being left behind
Fear permeates every corner of the business world — fear of a eurozone break-up, a global recession, or a new American debt stand-off. Yet there is one fear that should not be underestimated: the fear of being left behind.
At a recent dinner with influential fund managers from across Europe, I was surprised to learn that the prospect of a sharp bounce-back in financial markets is one of the things keeping professional investors awake at night. If Europe can get its act together, they argue, there is a chance that European bond prices and shares gallop higher at an incredible pace.
Missing out on a mega-rally could become a sackable offence for a hedge fund manager, private banker or head of big state pension fund. That’s partly why markets are so skittish. Professional investors are just as scared as the rest of us. Yet the right noises from Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, could see sentiment turn on a sixpence.
There is a huge wall of cash in the global financial system, desperate to come back into the market at the first sign of recovery.
There was a taste of that last week, when the world’s biggest central banks unveiled their giant injection of dollars into the financial system. The fact that America, Europe, Britain, Canada and Japan all seemed to be singing with one voice was enough to persuade some investors to buy in. The FTSE 100 and every other key share index bounced instantly. Trading screens were still awash with green on Friday night.
Some senior financiers have convinced themselves that the next seven days genuinely will see Europe’s politicians lay the path towards a resolution of the eurozone crisis. They believe the political will now exists to start the long process towards creating a more federal Europe, with centralised procedures to keep errant states under control.
Such an agreement would then pave the way for the European Central Bank to step into the market with a colossal intervention in eurozone bond markets.
Of course, we’ve been here before on a number of occasions over the past three years, as the eurozone debt crisis has escalated from a theoretical possibility to a hard reality.
Time and again, proposed solutions have lost all credibility within seconds of being announced. Last minute politicking has scaled back bailout plans for fear of upsetting German voters, or derailing Nicolas Sarkozy’s plans for re-election as French president.
Merkel and Sarkozy seem to be edging towards common ground. It’s not clear that the other 15 countries of the eurozone are even being kept in the loop on their proposals, however.
Murmurings from Dublin suggest the Irish government may resist moves to reform the treaties underpinning the euro. Any number of spanners may yet be thrown in the works. So don’t be surprised if the next few days of diplomacy end in another stand-off, leading to another watered-down rescue pact that withers on the vine.
If that happens this time around, the market reaction is likely to be even more severe than it has been before.
Sunday Times Business....
The City’s new big fear: a sudden bounce-back
In an atmosphere of general concern in the City of London, there is one fear that should not be underestimated: the fear of being left behind
Fear permeates every corner of the business world — fear of a eurozone break-up, a global recession, or a new American debt stand-off. Yet there is one fear that should not be underestimated: the fear of being left behind.
At a recent dinner with influential fund managers from across Europe, I was surprised to learn that the prospect of a sharp bounce-back in financial markets is one of the things keeping professional investors awake at night. If Europe can get its act together, they argue, there is a chance that European bond prices and shares gallop higher at an incredible pace.
Missing out on a mega-rally could become a sackable offence for a hedge fund manager, private banker or head of big state pension fund. That’s partly why markets are so skittish. Professional investors are just as scared as the rest of us. Yet the right noises from Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, could see sentiment turn on a sixpence.
There is a huge wall of cash in the global financial system, desperate to come back into the market at the first sign of recovery.
There was a taste of that last week, when the world’s biggest central banks unveiled their giant injection of dollars into the financial system. The fact that America, Europe, Britain, Canada and Japan all seemed to be singing with one voice was enough to persuade some investors to buy in. The FTSE 100 and every other key share index bounced instantly. Trading screens were still awash with green on Friday night.
Some senior financiers have convinced themselves that the next seven days genuinely will see Europe’s politicians lay the path towards a resolution of the eurozone crisis. They believe the political will now exists to start the long process towards creating a more federal Europe, with centralised procedures to keep errant states under control.
Such an agreement would then pave the way for the European Central Bank to step into the market with a colossal intervention in eurozone bond markets.
Of course, we’ve been here before on a number of occasions over the past three years, as the eurozone debt crisis has escalated from a theoretical possibility to a hard reality.
Time and again, proposed solutions have lost all credibility within seconds of being announced. Last minute politicking has scaled back bailout plans for fear of upsetting German voters, or derailing Nicolas Sarkozy’s plans for re-election as French president.
Merkel and Sarkozy seem to be edging towards common ground. It’s not clear that the other 15 countries of the eurozone are even being kept in the loop on their proposals, however.
Murmurings from Dublin suggest the Irish government may resist moves to reform the treaties underpinning the euro. Any number of spanners may yet be thrown in the works. So don’t be surprised if the next few days of diplomacy end in another stand-off, leading to another watered-down rescue pact that withers on the vine.
If that happens this time around, the market reaction is likely to be even more severe than it has been before.
This is available limited time only apparently
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/31800760/shares mag 1st Dec.pdf
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/31800760/shares mag 1st Dec.pdf
On the hope that this is indeed March 2009 I have bought some ultra-small positions in IMIC and RUBI to 'keep an eye on them'.
IMIC 'Indian Mining & Infrastrucuture' - Mkt Cap £1m - RNS today... no idea what it means but they could in some way shape or form be involved in Infrastructure for Iron Ore projects in West Africa ? Some relationship with Gasol (GAS)
http://fool.uk-wire.com/Article.aspx?id=201112050700193086T
RUBI 'Rubicon Diversified' - Mkt Cap £4m - RNS today... no idea what it means but they seem to be suggesting idea of setting up Easyjet in Africa with Stelios. Also the rampers friend Lenigas is involved so I wonder could he reverse in his existing Lonhro Africa airline assets ?
http://fool.uk-wire.com/Article.aspx?id=201112050700173062T
IMIC 'Indian Mining & Infrastrucuture' - Mkt Cap £1m - RNS today... no idea what it means but they could in some way shape or form be involved in Infrastructure for Iron Ore projects in West Africa ? Some relationship with Gasol (GAS)
http://fool.uk-wire.com/Article.aspx?id=201112050700193086T
RUBI 'Rubicon Diversified' - Mkt Cap £4m - RNS today... no idea what it means but they seem to be suggesting idea of setting up Easyjet in Africa with Stelios. Also the rampers friend Lenigas is involved so I wonder could he reverse in his existing Lonhro Africa airline assets ?
http://fool.uk-wire.com/Article.aspx?id=201112050700173062T
Last edited:
IMIC - these guys are not messing around are they ! Doing some reading up of past RNSes and they appointed these guys as 'Advisory Board members' a few days ago
Ex-Chairman of Barclays Andrew Buxton
Former US representative to UN John Negroponte
http://fool.uk-wire.com/Article.aspx?id=201112010745011401T
Ex-Chairman of Barclays Andrew Buxton
Former US representative to UN John Negroponte
http://fool.uk-wire.com/Article.aspx?id=201112010745011401T
What do you iron ore fans think of IMIC ?
I was extremely dubious at first and have been a bit wary of pure iron ore plays because the big bottleneck/'gating factor' is Infrastructure. It would make sense for all these iron ore minnows to invest in a neutral third party which could address their joint infrastructure needs and IMIC certainly seem to be connecting some major and high profile dots to bring such a huge coalition to fruition.
I was extremely dubious at first and have been a bit wary of pure iron ore plays because the big bottleneck/'gating factor' is Infrastructure. It would make sense for all these iron ore minnows to invest in a neutral third party which could address their joint infrastructure needs and IMIC certainly seem to be connecting some major and high profile dots to bring such a huge coalition to fruition.
RUBI - already starting to get some press attention. Stelios has been at war with the Easyjet guys and if it looks like he is going to get involved in a new 'Easyjet' for Africa the press will be all over it
http://news.sky.com/home/business/article/16077489
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15066268
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...ioss-Fastjet-to-take-on-long-haul-market.html
http://news.sky.com/home/business/article/16077489
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15066268
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...ioss-Fastjet-to-take-on-long-haul-market.html
EE any thoughts on AKT ?
http://fool.uk-wire.com/Article.aspx?id=201111090700307278R
This IMS from last month looks interesting.
Main aspects which interest me, 1. Cash backing. 2. IP validated with Boehringer. 3. Some interesting programmes with AstraZeneca showing interest.
1. Cash
As we reported in our interim results on 24 August 2011, the Company had £5.4m in cash (excluding the Finnish working capital loan of €3m in restricted cash) at 30 June 2011. The significant milestone payments received from Boehringer Ingelheim during the period, the recently announced important manufacturing contracts with PsiOxus and the University of Glasgow, the Company's success in attracting grant funding and the Company's continued focus on controlling costs, have all served to bolster the Company's cash reserves. It is expected that cash reserves will be higher at the end of the current year than they were at the end of June 2011.
2. Boehringer
In early July we announced that the United States Patent and Trademark Office ("USPTO") had issued Notices of Allowance in respect of two patents for which certain rights have been assigned by Ark to Boehringer Ingelheim. The patents cover the use of Boehringer Ingelheim's compound Telmisartan for the prevention and treatment of stroke and the prevention of myocardial infarction related heart damage. The patents were formally granted by the USPTO in August triggering significant milestone payments, now received, under Ark's licence agreement with Boehringer Ingelheim. This was excellent news for both Ark and Boehringer Ingelheim and a further validation of Ark's intellectual property.
3. Other programmes
Neuropilin-1 Receptor Antagonists (EG014)- Ark has developed the only known drug-like small molecule antagonists of VEGF binding to Neuropilin-1 (NRP-1). The binding to NRP-1 results in three activities of likely benefit as an anti-cancer therapy: inhibition of tumour cell proliferation, inhibition of tumour cell migration and inhibition of angiogenesis. During the current reporting period Ark's scientists have published studies on site-directed mutants of NRP-1 that specifically abolish VEGF binding and provide further validation of the potential therapeutic value of the antagonists. Ark has also continued to invest in the lead optimisation of these molecules, assisted by X-ray crystallographic structures of complexes of antagonists with NRP-1. These efforts have reinforced Ark's dominant scientific and patent positions in the field. Ark considers that the programme constitutes an attractive partnering package and is seeking companies that will be able to support its further development. In the interims announcement issued on 24 August we reported that AstraZeneca have received some of Ark's compounds to evaluate in their own assays.
Refractory Angina (EG011) -Refractory angina is a consequence of insufficient blood supply to the areas of heart muscle damaged by a heart attack. Ark's adenoviral vector carrying a transgene for expression of pro-angiogenic human VEGF-D is designed to treat the condition by stimulating new blood vessel generation at the ischemic heart muscle to which it is directly administered. An academic clinical study of this treatment is in progress in Finland to gain early insights into the safety and efficacy of the treatment. The study is progressing through an initial dose ranging phase that is on course to complete recruitment by the end of 2011 or early 2012.
Peripheral Vascular Disease (EG016) - Like refractory angina, this programme utilises the angiogenic properties of Ad.VEGF-D. The vector is delivered into the muscle of the affected limb a number of days before surgery, to promote the growth of smaller vessels needed to take blood flow from the vessel that has been unblocked by bypass or angioplasty. As with refractory angina, early insights into the safety and efficacy of the treatment are anticipated from an academic clinical study being undertaken in Finland, the results of which will be used to form the basis of formal development programmes with partners.
Foetal Growth Restriction (FGR) (EG013) -this program represents another potential therapeutic application of Ark's pro-angiogenic Ad.VEGF-D gene vector. Severe foetal growth restriction, which represents a major unmet clinical need, is a consequence of inadequate placental blood supply. By treating the maternal uterine artery with Ad.VEGF, Ark's academic collaborators have demonstrated in appropriate models that maternal blood supply to the foetus can be improved with positive outcomes for its growth. Ark is now investigating the investment required to progress this highly promising therapy into the toxicology study that has been discussed with the regulatory authorities as a pre-requisite for clinical trials.
We also continue to work very actively on partnering programmes, including Cerepro®.
http://fool.uk-wire.com/Article.aspx?id=201111090700307278R
This IMS from last month looks interesting.
Main aspects which interest me, 1. Cash backing. 2. IP validated with Boehringer. 3. Some interesting programmes with AstraZeneca showing interest.
1. Cash
As we reported in our interim results on 24 August 2011, the Company had £5.4m in cash (excluding the Finnish working capital loan of €3m in restricted cash) at 30 June 2011. The significant milestone payments received from Boehringer Ingelheim during the period, the recently announced important manufacturing contracts with PsiOxus and the University of Glasgow, the Company's success in attracting grant funding and the Company's continued focus on controlling costs, have all served to bolster the Company's cash reserves. It is expected that cash reserves will be higher at the end of the current year than they were at the end of June 2011.
2. Boehringer
In early July we announced that the United States Patent and Trademark Office ("USPTO") had issued Notices of Allowance in respect of two patents for which certain rights have been assigned by Ark to Boehringer Ingelheim. The patents cover the use of Boehringer Ingelheim's compound Telmisartan for the prevention and treatment of stroke and the prevention of myocardial infarction related heart damage. The patents were formally granted by the USPTO in August triggering significant milestone payments, now received, under Ark's licence agreement with Boehringer Ingelheim. This was excellent news for both Ark and Boehringer Ingelheim and a further validation of Ark's intellectual property.
3. Other programmes
Neuropilin-1 Receptor Antagonists (EG014)- Ark has developed the only known drug-like small molecule antagonists of VEGF binding to Neuropilin-1 (NRP-1). The binding to NRP-1 results in three activities of likely benefit as an anti-cancer therapy: inhibition of tumour cell proliferation, inhibition of tumour cell migration and inhibition of angiogenesis. During the current reporting period Ark's scientists have published studies on site-directed mutants of NRP-1 that specifically abolish VEGF binding and provide further validation of the potential therapeutic value of the antagonists. Ark has also continued to invest in the lead optimisation of these molecules, assisted by X-ray crystallographic structures of complexes of antagonists with NRP-1. These efforts have reinforced Ark's dominant scientific and patent positions in the field. Ark considers that the programme constitutes an attractive partnering package and is seeking companies that will be able to support its further development. In the interims announcement issued on 24 August we reported that AstraZeneca have received some of Ark's compounds to evaluate in their own assays.
Refractory Angina (EG011) -Refractory angina is a consequence of insufficient blood supply to the areas of heart muscle damaged by a heart attack. Ark's adenoviral vector carrying a transgene for expression of pro-angiogenic human VEGF-D is designed to treat the condition by stimulating new blood vessel generation at the ischemic heart muscle to which it is directly administered. An academic clinical study of this treatment is in progress in Finland to gain early insights into the safety and efficacy of the treatment. The study is progressing through an initial dose ranging phase that is on course to complete recruitment by the end of 2011 or early 2012.
Peripheral Vascular Disease (EG016) - Like refractory angina, this programme utilises the angiogenic properties of Ad.VEGF-D. The vector is delivered into the muscle of the affected limb a number of days before surgery, to promote the growth of smaller vessels needed to take blood flow from the vessel that has been unblocked by bypass or angioplasty. As with refractory angina, early insights into the safety and efficacy of the treatment are anticipated from an academic clinical study being undertaken in Finland, the results of which will be used to form the basis of formal development programmes with partners.
Foetal Growth Restriction (FGR) (EG013) -this program represents another potential therapeutic application of Ark's pro-angiogenic Ad.VEGF-D gene vector. Severe foetal growth restriction, which represents a major unmet clinical need, is a consequence of inadequate placental blood supply. By treating the maternal uterine artery with Ad.VEGF, Ark's academic collaborators have demonstrated in appropriate models that maternal blood supply to the foetus can be improved with positive outcomes for its growth. Ark is now investigating the investment required to progress this highly promising therapy into the toxicology study that has been discussed with the regulatory authorities as a pre-requisite for clinical trials.
We also continue to work very actively on partnering programmes, including Cerepro®.
Green Leopard
Local Club Regular
- Joined
- Dec 3, 2011
- Runs
- 1,335
anyone trading the pips on bond prices, i.e. italy 10 year, and US T-bills
got burnt after italy yield dropped from 7% to 5.95%, i was bear on italy bonds.
got burnt after italy yield dropped from 7% to 5.95%, i was bear on italy bonds.
CPX - Sounds a good one to me
http://fool.uk-wire.com/Article.aspx?id=201112080700445712T
CAP-XX is pleased to announce receipt of its final payment under its technical collaboration agreement with Murata for the development of surface mount devices (SMDs), which can be mounted directly onto PCBs using reflow solder techniques. Payment follows the completion of CAP-XX's development and independent testing and evaluation by Murata.
Anthony Kongats, CEO of CAP-XX said:
CAP-XX's SMD supercapacitor represents a step-change in technology and is a world first, which greatly expands the potential market for small supercapacitors, being particularly suited for high volume mobile telephone handset applications
http://fool.uk-wire.com/Article.aspx?id=201112080700445712T
CAP-XX is pleased to announce receipt of its final payment under its technical collaboration agreement with Murata for the development of surface mount devices (SMDs), which can be mounted directly onto PCBs using reflow solder techniques. Payment follows the completion of CAP-XX's development and independent testing and evaluation by Murata.
Anthony Kongats, CEO of CAP-XX said:
CAP-XX's SMD supercapacitor represents a step-change in technology and is a world first, which greatly expands the potential market for small supercapacitors, being particularly suited for high volume mobile telephone handset applications
This looks like the real breakthrough for CPX, years after it listed and when everyone has forgotten the hype but I remember it because I met the Management on their IPO roadshow when they listed at 100p.
Now the stock is 15p (Mkt Cap £12m). Brokers have 32-50p price targets and hardly anyone talks about it.
Now the stock is 15p (Mkt Cap £12m). Brokers have 32-50p price targets and hardly anyone talks about it.
GON - also looking interesting here
Mkt Cap £6m
The internet blog http://www.pennysharemillionaire.com which tracks the Chinese media articles mentioning their MMORPG games is talking about potential revenue of £1m per month
also a couple of big IPOs in the space about to come out in next few weeks (valuing them at multiples of REVENUE !)
Nexon in Japan and Zynga in US
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/05/us-nexon-ipoprice-idUSTRE7B405H20111205
Funnily enough GON Management cancelled some deep out-of-the money options and granted themselves some new ones a few weeks back. Allways a tell-tale sign to me, i.e. they reckon the shares have hit short term bottom and reckon the newsflow is going to improve dramatically.
Mkt Cap £6m
The internet blog http://www.pennysharemillionaire.com which tracks the Chinese media articles mentioning their MMORPG games is talking about potential revenue of £1m per month
also a couple of big IPOs in the space about to come out in next few weeks (valuing them at multiples of REVENUE !)
Nexon in Japan and Zynga in US
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/05/us-nexon-ipoprice-idUSTRE7B405H20111205
Funnily enough GON Management cancelled some deep out-of-the money options and granted themselves some new ones a few weeks back. Allways a tell-tale sign to me, i.e. they reckon the shares have hit short term bottom and reckon the newsflow is going to improve dramatically.
Last edited:
Another write-up by Tom Bulford of Angle PLC
Angle’s share price has increased four-fold this year to 80p. But now broker Cenkos has valued the shares at 200p, and this on the basis of assumptions that that could prove to be very conservative.
This company shows just how lucrative medical technology can be for investors – even during troubling times for the market.
The lesson is that great innovators will win out. Take Angle. The way I see it, Angle has at least three shots at the big time…
Shot one: Parsortix
There are so many other types of cancer that more than 40% of all men and women will suffer from it in some form in their lifetime.
Progress has been made in cancer treatment, as I said. Parsortix is among the leading small technology companies in this field. Yesterday, the company announced its first research agreement with the University of Surrey’s oncology department. And there are great prospects in store for the company…
Cenkos calculated the value of Parsortix to Angle. They assume that sales to research laboratories start next year, with clinical sales to follow in 2013. Again Cenkos applies a discount to the latter, this time of 37.5%, to allow for clinical uncertainty as well as the 40% per annum discount to forecast cash flows. The upshot is a value for Angle’s interest in Parsortix of £39.7m or 110p per share, making 200p in all.
Cenkos has discounted future earnings heavily. So the real message is that the potential for Angle shareholders could be a lot higher than this.
But Angle has other interests, the most significant of which are Geomerics and Novocellus.
Shot two: Novocellus
Novocellus was originally established to commercialise the work of Professor Henry Leese of York University in the field of IVF treatment. IVF means the fertilisation of an egg in a test tube to create an embryo that is then transferred into the womb. The problem of infertility is growing around the world and for many couples IVF treatment represents their best chance of having a child.
The problem today is that IVF does not work very well. Current clinical practice relies upon subjective methods of assessing the quality of the embryo and results in a low live birth rate of 20%. In an attempt to increase the pregnancy rate, multiple embryos are transferred to the womb but this leads to the opposite extreme, multiple births.
What is needed is a more effective method of assessing embryos. The EmbryoSure method devised by Professor Leese works by measuring the turnover of natural amino acids by the embryo in its first 24 hours of development. This allows the embryologist to determine which embryos are likely to result in a successful pregnancy, and these can then be transferred immediately to the womb or else frozen for use later on.
Worldwide, there are over one million cycles of IVF annually, with a single cycle costing between £4,000 and £8,000 in a UK private clinic. Novocellus believes that EmbryoSure can improve the pregnancy rate by 25% and is in a partnership with Denmark’s Origio, a supplier of the IVF culture medium, to bring this to the market. EmbryoSure has already been successfully evaluated in two pilot clinical studies at hospitals in the UK and is now waiting on further trials with Origio.
Ominously these have been delayed, but if things proceed according to plan then Cenkos attributes a value of 28p per share to Angle’s holding in Novocellus, this already discounted by 40% to allow for clinical uncertainty, and with a further 40% per annum discount applied to forecast cash flows.
Angle has one other very interesting venture…
Shot three: Geometrics
Geometrics developed ‘Enlighten’, a complex physics engine that creates realistic lighting effects in computer games. The fiercely competitive computer games industry is expected to be worth $65bn by 2013, and the winners will be those that can offer the most lifelike experience.
Geomerics has already secured key reference customers including Electronic Arts, CCP, Zombie and FunCom and Enlighten has been used in the recently launched Battlefield 3 game, which sold five million copies in its first week. Geomerics has an unnamed partner that is on the hook to make one last milestone payment. This is expected by the end of April after which Angle has suggested that Geomerics might be sold.
Cenkos suggests that, based on the achievement of 20% market penetration in 2013 rising to 40% – an ambitious rate of progress- a sale could deliver c.£29m to Angle. This is equivalent to its entire current stock market value.
Angle’s share price has increased four-fold this year to 80p. But now broker Cenkos has valued the shares at 200p, and this on the basis of assumptions that that could prove to be very conservative.
This company shows just how lucrative medical technology can be for investors – even during troubling times for the market.
The lesson is that great innovators will win out. Take Angle. The way I see it, Angle has at least three shots at the big time…
Shot one: Parsortix
There are so many other types of cancer that more than 40% of all men and women will suffer from it in some form in their lifetime.
Progress has been made in cancer treatment, as I said. Parsortix is among the leading small technology companies in this field. Yesterday, the company announced its first research agreement with the University of Surrey’s oncology department. And there are great prospects in store for the company…
Cenkos calculated the value of Parsortix to Angle. They assume that sales to research laboratories start next year, with clinical sales to follow in 2013. Again Cenkos applies a discount to the latter, this time of 37.5%, to allow for clinical uncertainty as well as the 40% per annum discount to forecast cash flows. The upshot is a value for Angle’s interest in Parsortix of £39.7m or 110p per share, making 200p in all.
Cenkos has discounted future earnings heavily. So the real message is that the potential for Angle shareholders could be a lot higher than this.
But Angle has other interests, the most significant of which are Geomerics and Novocellus.
Shot two: Novocellus
Novocellus was originally established to commercialise the work of Professor Henry Leese of York University in the field of IVF treatment. IVF means the fertilisation of an egg in a test tube to create an embryo that is then transferred into the womb. The problem of infertility is growing around the world and for many couples IVF treatment represents their best chance of having a child.
The problem today is that IVF does not work very well. Current clinical practice relies upon subjective methods of assessing the quality of the embryo and results in a low live birth rate of 20%. In an attempt to increase the pregnancy rate, multiple embryos are transferred to the womb but this leads to the opposite extreme, multiple births.
What is needed is a more effective method of assessing embryos. The EmbryoSure method devised by Professor Leese works by measuring the turnover of natural amino acids by the embryo in its first 24 hours of development. This allows the embryologist to determine which embryos are likely to result in a successful pregnancy, and these can then be transferred immediately to the womb or else frozen for use later on.
Worldwide, there are over one million cycles of IVF annually, with a single cycle costing between £4,000 and £8,000 in a UK private clinic. Novocellus believes that EmbryoSure can improve the pregnancy rate by 25% and is in a partnership with Denmark’s Origio, a supplier of the IVF culture medium, to bring this to the market. EmbryoSure has already been successfully evaluated in two pilot clinical studies at hospitals in the UK and is now waiting on further trials with Origio.
Ominously these have been delayed, but if things proceed according to plan then Cenkos attributes a value of 28p per share to Angle’s holding in Novocellus, this already discounted by 40% to allow for clinical uncertainty, and with a further 40% per annum discount applied to forecast cash flows.
Angle has one other very interesting venture…
Shot three: Geometrics
Geometrics developed ‘Enlighten’, a complex physics engine that creates realistic lighting effects in computer games. The fiercely competitive computer games industry is expected to be worth $65bn by 2013, and the winners will be those that can offer the most lifelike experience.
Geomerics has already secured key reference customers including Electronic Arts, CCP, Zombie and FunCom and Enlighten has been used in the recently launched Battlefield 3 game, which sold five million copies in its first week. Geomerics has an unnamed partner that is on the hook to make one last milestone payment. This is expected by the end of April after which Angle has suggested that Geomerics might be sold.
Cenkos suggests that, based on the achievement of 20% market penetration in 2013 rising to 40% – an ambitious rate of progress- a sale could deliver c.£29m to Angle. This is equivalent to its entire current stock market value.
also useful they have made their archive available for free as well
http://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/view/archive
http://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/view/archive
Perhaps a Santa Rally on the way as looks like Europe is 'saved' and VIX below 30
Had this emailed me today from a noted stock commentator in UK
I note also this weekend a sensible article by Tom Stephenson in the Telegraph pointing out that UK equities remain cheaper (in PE terms) than those in most markets. Now you may say that the outlook for the UK economy is pretty dull and that this will not drive material earnings growth. That is a given. But a large percentage of UK PLC's earnings are generated abroad, often in countries where growth is more aggressive. That is not factored in. And moreover I would argue that the lowly ratings of many UK stocks discounts the uncertain outlook for earnings. And perhaps that is why we have seen a) a number of MBO proposals tabled for companies we follow, notably K3 and b) persistent net buying of shares both by companies via buybacks and by directors. I accept that some companies may be doing this for the wrong reasons but as a general trend the heavy net purchases of shares by directors is of note. I do not believe that they are engaged in an act of collective madness.
I noted elsewhere this weekend (commenting on Pivot and other matters) that before I buy more shares I want to see a boardroom lead via public statements AND boardroom share buying. Arguably you may enjoy more upside if you buy in the absence of such leads but in the current climate you can understand why I may wish to be cautious. It is certainly worth following directors dealings very carefully indeed right now.
Had this emailed me today from a noted stock commentator in UK
I note also this weekend a sensible article by Tom Stephenson in the Telegraph pointing out that UK equities remain cheaper (in PE terms) than those in most markets. Now you may say that the outlook for the UK economy is pretty dull and that this will not drive material earnings growth. That is a given. But a large percentage of UK PLC's earnings are generated abroad, often in countries where growth is more aggressive. That is not factored in. And moreover I would argue that the lowly ratings of many UK stocks discounts the uncertain outlook for earnings. And perhaps that is why we have seen a) a number of MBO proposals tabled for companies we follow, notably K3 and b) persistent net buying of shares both by companies via buybacks and by directors. I accept that some companies may be doing this for the wrong reasons but as a general trend the heavy net purchases of shares by directors is of note. I do not believe that they are engaged in an act of collective madness.
I noted elsewhere this weekend (commenting on Pivot and other matters) that before I buy more shares I want to see a boardroom lead via public statements AND boardroom share buying. Arguably you may enjoy more upside if you buy in the absence of such leads but in the current climate you can understand why I may wish to be cautious. It is certainly worth following directors dealings very carefully indeed right now.
GON was trading at around 20p during the height of the previous bear market Jan-Mar 2009
I expect it to at least trade back towards that level maybe 6-9 months out? That would be a Market Cap of £33m.
Certainly 10p+ within 3 months is my target now Management awarded themselves options.
The PSM blog is suggesting their online game division in China is doing £1m turnover per month. That would be £12m annualised. Zynga and Nexon are going to come to market with Price/Sales valuations of circa 10x. I doubt UK market will value a small cap like that but 2.5x sales is not out of the question.
GON - do also have some other divisions with decent revenue potential (Super Soccer Stars the 'Pop Idol' for football in association with Chelsea FC is showing in Indonesia and Colombia ; Croco Worldwide which does novelty toys/collectibles/inserts in Cereal packs etc in association with likes of Pepsi has won some $1m+ contracts)
I expect it to at least trade back towards that level maybe 6-9 months out? That would be a Market Cap of £33m.
Certainly 10p+ within 3 months is my target now Management awarded themselves options.
The PSM blog is suggesting their online game division in China is doing £1m turnover per month. That would be £12m annualised. Zynga and Nexon are going to come to market with Price/Sales valuations of circa 10x. I doubt UK market will value a small cap like that but 2.5x sales is not out of the question.
GON - do also have some other divisions with decent revenue potential (Super Soccer Stars the 'Pop Idol' for football in association with Chelsea FC is showing in Indonesia and Colombia ; Croco Worldwide which does novelty toys/collectibles/inserts in Cereal packs etc in association with likes of Pepsi has won some $1m+ contracts)
jaspa888
Local Club Star
- Joined
- Aug 1, 2007
- Runs
- 1,984
Thanks for that yaar. I am ready to move some of my dead ducks around and was thinking of upping my small stake in GON. Thanks for the tip, btw.
No problem.
Same here. Lot of small stuff sold and concentrated into high conviction stocks.
Right now my high conviction stocks have to exhibit combination of all of the following : compelling upcoming newsflow/catalysts , dramatic fundamental valuation discrepancy and high Management stakeholding.
Same here. Lot of small stuff sold and concentrated into high conviction stocks.
Right now my high conviction stocks have to exhibit combination of all of the following : compelling upcoming newsflow/catalysts , dramatic fundamental valuation discrepancy and high Management stakeholding.
Eagle_Eye
ODI Debutant
- Joined
- Jan 11, 2010
- Runs
- 9,954
s28..... a family of traders? 
What are your high conviction stocks at the moment?
What are your high conviction stocks at the moment?
Highest conviction positions right now require some combination of the following (solid delivery, constructive chart formations, ludicrously low valuations, driven/incentivised management, transformational news ignored due to market dislocation, huge blue sky growth potential, mispriced optionality)
GON, CPX, AGL, FOGL, CNR, GCM
(EE, they don't actually know they have bought/own GON but for tax purposes they pressed the button not me
)
GON, CPX, AGL, FOGL, CNR, GCM
(EE, they don't actually know they have bought/own GON but for tax purposes they pressed the button not me
)reminder on CPX from a few weeks back
CPX - very exciting AGM statement today on two counts
1. they don't normally make a statement other than the formal business
2. the business is going well on a number of fronts and most exciting is this emerging opportunity in vehicle stop-start systems (supercapacitors could be the magic bullet which helps Electric Vehicles overcome some of their limitations with regard to Battery performance, been doing some background research on Maxwell Technologies who are experiencing great growth in their own capacitor division and i suspect CPX may have advantage in terms of size/weight? coming from mobile phone angle ?)
CPX IPOed at 100p odd and current Broker targets out there of 32 and 50p prior to todays news so i think it is a bargain at 15p (Mkt Cap about £12m)
The potential royalties from Murata relationship (1m supercapacitors a month production @ $3.50 a pop and 6% royalty = potential $2.5m p.a. straight to the bottom line which i'd value at 20-30x ($50-75m or £30-45m vs Mkt Cap of £12m)
Commenting at the Group's AGM in Sydney today, Wednesday November 23rd, CAP-XX Chairman, Michael Quinn said:
"I am delighted to announce that revenues for the first four months of our financial year, to 31 October, are 23% ahead of the corresponding period of 2010/11. Moreover, this growth reflects an underlying 37% increase in product volume and US$ value of sales, before the adverse foreign exchange adjustment. The figures also include a small maiden contribution from the launch of the Murata supercapacitor and I am very encouraged by Murata's plan to ramp up production to one million units a month by the calendar year-end.
I am are also encouraged by the level of interest shown by Automotive Tier-1 suppliers, both from Asia and Europe in our large supercapacitor, developed for automotive stop-start applications. We have successfully demonstrated the product on the European Drive Cycle, showing a material extension to battery life and improvements in starting and sub-zero performance over battery only systems. We are currently examining partnering opportunities for this exciting segment.
Finally we are pleased to announce that Murata has independently verified the performance of our surface-mount (SMD) supercapacitor device for high-volume mobile telephone handsets and other consumer electronic products and we look forward to a successful discussions with parties with respect to licensing production."
CPX - very exciting AGM statement today on two counts
1. they don't normally make a statement other than the formal business
2. the business is going well on a number of fronts and most exciting is this emerging opportunity in vehicle stop-start systems (supercapacitors could be the magic bullet which helps Electric Vehicles overcome some of their limitations with regard to Battery performance, been doing some background research on Maxwell Technologies who are experiencing great growth in their own capacitor division and i suspect CPX may have advantage in terms of size/weight? coming from mobile phone angle ?)
CPX IPOed at 100p odd and current Broker targets out there of 32 and 50p prior to todays news so i think it is a bargain at 15p (Mkt Cap about £12m)
The potential royalties from Murata relationship (1m supercapacitors a month production @ $3.50 a pop and 6% royalty = potential $2.5m p.a. straight to the bottom line which i'd value at 20-30x ($50-75m or £30-45m vs Mkt Cap of £12m)
Commenting at the Group's AGM in Sydney today, Wednesday November 23rd, CAP-XX Chairman, Michael Quinn said:
"I am delighted to announce that revenues for the first four months of our financial year, to 31 October, are 23% ahead of the corresponding period of 2010/11. Moreover, this growth reflects an underlying 37% increase in product volume and US$ value of sales, before the adverse foreign exchange adjustment. The figures also include a small maiden contribution from the launch of the Murata supercapacitor and I am very encouraged by Murata's plan to ramp up production to one million units a month by the calendar year-end.
I am are also encouraged by the level of interest shown by Automotive Tier-1 suppliers, both from Asia and Europe in our large supercapacitor, developed for automotive stop-start applications. We have successfully demonstrated the product on the European Drive Cycle, showing a material extension to battery life and improvements in starting and sub-zero performance over battery only systems. We are currently examining partnering opportunities for this exciting segment.
Finally we are pleased to announce that Murata has independently verified the performance of our surface-mount (SMD) supercapacitor device for high-volume mobile telephone handsets and other consumer electronic products and we look forward to a successful discussions with parties with respect to licensing production."
Eagle_Eye
ODI Debutant
- Joined
- Jan 11, 2010
- Runs
- 9,954
Highest conviction positions right now require some combination of the following (solid delivery, constructive chart formations, ludicrously low valuations, driven/incentivised management, transformational news ignored due to market dislocation, huge blue sky growth potential, mispriced optionality)
GON, CPX, AGL, FOGL, CNR, GCM
(EE, they don't actually know they have bought/own GON but for tax purposes they pressed the button not me
Hehehe... on that account my wife owns a lot of shares too
Whats the story with GCM... Genuine break in impasse soon? How long can this continue before GCM has to throw in the towel. Maybe that is what the Bengalis want and are waiting for.
Richard Hammond talking about these capacitor systems with Mazda planning to implement now which should spur others. I see two major potential game-changers for CPX 1) if they get their surface mount devices into mobile phones (as that would give real volume validation of commercial potential) and 2) getting a deal with an Auto Tier 1 supplier (as it will open a another big market, as ASP's for Automotive market will much larger one presumes (given they spend $10-20k just on Electric Batteries in some of these vehicles) versus current ASP's for CPX of $3 and these Auto design-ins last for years given the long design and production cycle).
http://www.mirror.co.uk/advice/moto...aker-with-i-eloop-technology-115875-23602777/
http://www.mirror.co.uk/advice/moto...aker-with-i-eloop-technology-115875-23602777/
GCM - AGM Thursday
I doubt anything in the pipeline but the press in Bangladesh continues to be supportive. This includes MP's (both on specific parliamentary 'Power' committees and local MP's in Phulbari region) as well as leading opinion formers such as ex-Heads of likes of Petrobangla. There are a few environmentalists and communists who disagree but their arguments are stuck in the dark ages just like their philosophies.
I don't expect GCM to 'throw the towel in' the guys in charge are serious business people with a lot of shares and options and they know how valuable this will be when the green light is eventually given. Bangladesh have no other alternative but as their cricket team shows they are a desperately backward people in some respects.
I doubt anything in the pipeline but the press in Bangladesh continues to be supportive. This includes MP's (both on specific parliamentary 'Power' committees and local MP's in Phulbari region) as well as leading opinion formers such as ex-Heads of likes of Petrobangla. There are a few environmentalists and communists who disagree but their arguments are stuck in the dark ages just like their philosophies.
I don't expect GCM to 'throw the towel in' the guys in charge are serious business people with a lot of shares and options and they know how valuable this will be when the green light is eventually given. Bangladesh have no other alternative but as their cricket team shows they are a desperately backward people in some respects.
TPJ - great news overnight
Gold Anomaly (ASX:GOA) it's partner on Crater Mountain project announced Porphyry discovery and finished up 76% on the day.
Expect RNS from TPJ later.
Also due newsflow soon on much bigger and more important Newmont drilling of Morobe JV project.
Gold Anomaly (ASX:GOA) it's partner on Crater Mountain project announced Porphyry discovery and finished up 76% on the day.
Expect RNS from TPJ later.
Also due newsflow soon on much bigger and more important Newmont drilling of Morobe JV project.
Similar threads
