What's new

Buying shares?

GCM - some nice indicators in the Bangladesh press again

IMF basically telling Bangladesh to sort out their finances and power issues (read 'mine your own coal rather than importing expensive oil')

http://www.thedailystar.net/newDesign/news-details.php?nid=214053

Cut Bank Borrowing, Energy Subsidy

IMF may add strings to its $1b credit

and this story : "7 new coal-fired power plants planned'

http://www.bdnews24.com/details.php?cid=2&id=213671&hb=4

Dhaka, Dec 12 (bdnews24.com) – The government is planning to shift to coal as fuel for power generation by setting up seven coal-based plants with a total output of 4,000MW by 2014.

Six of these plants being planned by the Power Development Board (PDB) to be owned by private entrepreneurs would generate the larger chunk of the targeted output. Only one plant would be state-run.

"We are evaluating coal as the chief source after 2014 to ensure energy security. We shall be using coal extracted in our country while option for imports of coal would stay open to fuel these plants," PDB chief A S M Alamgir Kabir told bdnews24.com

"As there are debates over the method of extracting the country's coal, we are thinking about initially importing the fuel needed for these plants."
 
GCM - AGM

Excellent. Buying More. RNS out today basically says all I wanted to hear 'share price is down for no reason we know of except general market sentiment'. Speaking to the guys i got clear impression there is some progress on the ground and/but it 'only' requires sign off by Sheikh Hasina.

So at 60p (in effect 30p ex-ing out cash and shares) you are paying 30p for an option which could be worth 800-1600p in my opinion.

At the stroke of a pen ! Even if you discount it for time and risk 30p for potential 300p ? Yeah I'll take that.

Let's see what happens.
 
Last edited:
The AGM was infiltrated by some leftie/commie/swampy types. (About 5-6 in a room for 40-50)

To the credit of GCM Management and Board they dealt with these interlopers in a very professional way by letting them have their say and inviting them to further discussions to address their concerns and the inaccuracies of their arguments.

Very much gave me faith in how these guys operate. They had all sorts of emotive rubbish thrown in their face such as allegations of being complicit in the death of a 14 year old protester (when it was actually out of control Bangladesh army which did the unlawful killing and the stupidity of the protest/rabble rousers to allow things to turn violent and not control their mob). Also many of the environmental concerns are simply made up/exaggerated and already answered in the existing studies carried out by the company.
 
s28 ,

Any timescales on when it will be resolved?

They have £13 million in kitty and not all is cash...
How long can they hold out before they resort to dilution?
Any rumour or hints at potential partners they plan to bring on board?
 
Timescales are meaningless to many sub-continent rulers so pointless putting a definite date on it. I'd expect news in next few weeks though.

Ideally they could do with a Bangladeshi logistics/infrastructure partner with political links ? No idea ?

Polo could get them a major International strategic partner on the actual project/offtake side also. They sold Caledon to the Chinese. They will have decent Black Book. Stephen Dattels brother is ex-Head of Goldman Sachs in Asia and now works at Private Equity/Sovereign Wealth Funds.

Yup about £10m is shares in CZA which is on about 1-2x EBITDA so i reckon that could go up 3-4x within the next few years (perhaps even 3-4 fold in shorter space of time if Mittal or someone decides to buy up CZA to secure coal supply for their steel ops in South Africa) so in effect GCM could have enough to keep going for 10 more years of Sheikh Hasina sitting on the fence.
 
Last edited:
s28 said:
Interesting company worth keeping an eye on if you like Jam Next Decade :-p

At some point the World will move away from the easy exploitation of hydrocarbons to cleaner hydrogen economy and this company looks to be one of the leaders in the field ITM Power (ITM)

http://www.itm-power.com/cmsFiles/investors/ITM_Company_Update_151111.pdf
Click to expand...

Don't remind me, I already have RRL for that :)

I think for GCM to get things going again, it would be better off giving a percentage equity to both main Bangladeshi parties....

Its what the real owners of IPL teams have done and given the politicians and bollywood stars a stake in the teams and it ensures everything goes smoothly for them.
 
There is a presentation on GCM website dated August 2011 where they mention possible listing on Dhaka Stock Exchange. Would be a very good idea to get local PI's interested and create a groundswell of Bangladeshis who are rooting for them. Another idea would be to just give the Government 10% or set up a charitable trust for the Phulbari people to benefit from ongoing dividends. Bit of PR like that could win hearts, minds and wallets.

Interesting comments emerging from others who attended AGM. Bullish but also a bit reticent. I suspect some people may want to load up before revealing the details of their discussion with Management which have made them more bullish.

http://www.discussthemarket.com/gcm-chat
 
Last edited:
Nice incremental news from AGL today re detection of Lung cancer cells in spiked blood

Usefully they provide the following in their RNS (Personally I wouldn't be highlighting what news to expect if I didn't fully expect to hit those targets) :-

http://fool.uk-wire.com/Article.aspx?id=201112160700141047U

The next key milestones for the development of the Parsortix CTC separation technology are:

· Validation of the separation device for other cancer types, particularly those where the existing antibody affinity capture technology is unable to capture CTCs, such as ovarian cancer;

· The capture of CTCs from cancer patient blood as opposed to spiked blood (i.e. where cultured cancer cells are added to healthy blood);

· The optimisation of the separation device to allow its easy use in the laboratory with an increase in the volume of blood that can be screened and the speed of blood flow through the device; and

· Third party validation of the performance of the Parsortix CTC separation device by leading independent cancer research centres.
 
Personally what would get me paying over 100p for AGL would be items 2 and 4 from that list. I'd expect those two to be delivered in Q1 2012.
 
RRL - spud in Jan now .... It was meant to be Sept then Oct then Nov and recently Dec Spud was widely banded about by PL but then HORN came out last night and said... "expected spud in Puntland Jan 2012" ..... seriously think of just selling out altogether.

RMP forced to do a dilution now as apposed to after the puntland spud which would have made sense. Maybe it means that puntland is delayed for much longer then its being let out....
 
CPX nice RNS grant funding and tax rebate

Also useful reminder of potential of this new SMD capacitor
 
How high can GKP go? There is supposedly a bidon the table of 800p from Exxon, and substantial interest from other supermajors. Its only the Iraqi politics that have stopped a hostile takeover so far.

It could be an excellent trading opportunity over the next few days at this price.
 
Jaspa - mulling over buying in GKP.... You think there is much to these rumours... One reporter and his "sources".../

Whats your views about RRL at the moment?
 
DeadlyVenom said:
Is 800p rumour not a bit over the top?
Click to expand...

Eagle_Eye said:
Jaspa - mulling over buying in GKP.... You think there is much to these rumours... One reporter and his "sources".../
Click to expand...

The rumours of a takeover were mooted on many of the GKP boards last week, with the Chinese supposedly prepared to offer double what Exxon were offering. 800p is definitely not over over the top ($10bn represents a fraction of the profit that supermajors make annually), but the big caveat is that the contracts are illegal currently in their current form.

The big hope for small investors is that the Chinese or US supermajors carry enough clout to resolve the political and legal hurdles currently in place.

The story has some legs as was mentioned in at least one of the broadsheets at the weekend.

Eagle_Eye said:
Whats your views about RRL at the moment?
Click to expand...
Still in. The SP is protected by the NAV in place, and there are still two transformational drills in Georgia and Puntland. Even a qualified 'hit' in either of the projects will see SP shoot to multiples. PL is rubbish at IR, but he is not incompetent. The next three months will determine if RRL is the new GKP or just another smallcap wannabe.
 
Eagle_Eye said:
No GKP bid.... RNS out.
Click to expand...

I dont think that is necessarily the end of it EE.

The story was that Exxon had tabled a bid, or were in the process of doing so. The RNS states that the BoD arent in discussion with anyone - not the same thing at all if it is a hostile takeover as mooted.

The suggested take-out price of 800p will be a fraction of what the BoD would want, and they would also realise that getting into an auction would be more beneficial for both shareholders and the BoD.
 
I've got reliable inside information which says that the Shire Public limited companies stock is going to rise exponentially over the next few days.

Recommend low level investment in the short term and if it grows, high level investment.
 
Chart looks a stonker

Notes to editors

SHIRE PLC

Shire's strategic goal is to become the leading specialty biopharmaceutical
company that focuses on meeting the needs of the specialist physician. Shire
focuses its business on attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, human genetic
therapies, gastrointestinal diseases and regenerative medicine as well as
opportunities in other therapeutic areas to the extent they arise through
acquisitions. Shire's in-licensing, merger and acquisition efforts are focused
on products in specialist markets with strong intellectual property protection
and global rights. Shire believes that a carefully selected and balanced
portfolio of products with strategically aligned and relatively small-scale
sales forces will deliver strong results.

For further information on Shire, please visit the Company's website:
www.shire.com.

p.php
 
Holy...

When I was told of that by colleagues I never looked at the charts, but jesus christ thats almost exponential growth.
 
They look to be buzzing on several fronts. Even after this statement from November Directors were buying shares seemingly...

Angus Russell, Chief Executive Officer, commented:

"Shire has delivered another strong set of quarterly results. Total product
sales were up 28% to $1,018 million, with our newly acquired regenerative
medicine product, DERMAGRAFT for Diabetic Foot Ulcers, contributing sales of
$50 million in the quarter. We're on track to deliver significant 2011
earnings growth.

Sales of our rare disease treatments were very strong: with VPRIV up 31% and
REPLAGAL up 40% versus the same quarter in 2010. FIRAZYR, our
self-administered treatment for acute attacks of Hereditary Angioedema, was
approved by the FDA in August and launched just a few weeks ago; initial
demand from patients has been positive. This week we have also initiated a
rolling Biologics License Application for REPLAGAL in the US, designated Fast
Track by the FDA.

The US ADHD market continues to grow and with a strong `back to school'
season, our portfolio of treatments has gained share. VYVANSE sales were up
32% and INTUNIV sales grew 50%.

The investment in our product portfolio is already delivering benefits and we
believe our R&D pipeline will provide important therapies to patients around
the world. In addition to initiating Phase 3 clinical trials for VYVANSE as
adjunctive therapy in Major Depressive Disorder (MDD), we're releasing
highlights of exploratory data showing that cognition and executive function
were improved in patients with MDD taking VYVANSE as adjunctive therapy. We've
also released positive new clinical data related to our Phase 3 European ADHD
clinical program. Overall, we've increased investment in our R&D programs by
21% compared to Q3 2010, and still generated good earnings growth and strong
cashflows.

Over the course of the year we've seen market expectations for Shire's 2011
earnings rise, with further increases in the last quarter. After these good
third quarter results, and after taking account of the lower royalty income
that we will be recording in future periods, we remain on track to meet these
increased expectations. We anticipate that this will be another very good year
for Shire as we deliver strong sales and continue our investment program for
sustained future growth."
 
Friend in the city saying that there is truth to the Exxon takeover of GKP rumour....

Barring me I think everyone else has a holding in GKP here.... so very good news maybe coming your way.
 
Anyone holding Lloyds? I'm stuck at an avg of 29p. Really frustrating at the moment as I just want to get out.
 
Central randcrnd

Has anyone seen CENTRAL RAND up 30% It may be worth a punt ! Think RNS due soon; anyone with any further information
 
I was just flicking through this thread looking for the answer on Islam's perspective on shares but I couldn't really see a definitive answer. Could anyone tell me please :?
 
Of that list DOTD and FTC might be worth a look?

Otherwise pretty uninspiring list.

How could they not include CPX or GON ? :-p
 
Bought a few bits today in NTA, AGL and PVCS.

AGL - should be plenty of newsflow in Q1 2012 (also partly hoping it'll feature in heavily in various New Year Share Tips from Newspapers/Magazines)

NTA - announced first dividend from Lancasters development. I still think it could ultimately be £80m+ versus a current Market Cap of £17m. Even allowing for CGT it looks mispriced.

PVCS - The solar industry is in shambles but frequently into year end you get Institutional funds 'window dressing' and knocking stuff out regardless of price and I'm hoping PVCS is the victim of that. It does have cash above it's Market Cap and Net Assets significantly above it's Market Cap. May take some hefty non-cash write downs in next results. However a lot of these solar projects very reliant on financing so i'm partly hoping ECB printing will have some unintended leakage here and supporting rest of the European solar industry. The ones left standing after the nuclear holocaust could then really reap some big rewards ? Might be a bit too early here and it does look potentially s**t or bust as professional investors might put it.
 
Last edited:
re NTA

from advfn

Here is the RNS giving the details of the profit share tiers, so for the first part profits up to 10% of project costs we will get paid 5% of those profits and for 10-15% we get 20% of those profits, moving up to 50% for over 20% profits of project costs. We know they have sold the apartments at much greater prices than forecast and so they should see profits much higher than just 20% of project costs.

The Lancasters Update


11th August 2010


Northacre Plc ("the Company") notes today's announcement by Minerva Plc in relation to their EGM Circular.

The Company confirms the details in the circular regarding The Lancasters in terms of the profit sharing scale which is per our Joint Venture Agreement with Minerva Plc. The Company will be entitled to profits on the following sliding scale:

Profits up to 10% of Project Costs 5%

Profits between 10% and 15% of Project Costs 20%

Profits between 15% and 20% of Project Costs 40%

Profits above 20% of Project Costs 50%
 
So doing some maths if project costs £200m and Profits are 'up to 10%' i.e. £20m then NTA get 5% i.e. £1m

If project costs are £200m and Profits are £300m i.e.then NTA gets £150m ?

Even allowing for the ratchet mechanism i can't see how NTA get less than £100m ?

Assuming £200m costs and £500m total sales value. Even assuming 0 for the first 20% the next load of profit from £240m to £500m i.e. £260m should be shared 50-50 i.e. £130m to NTA ?

wow

Project is about 200,000 sq ft and original projections were for flats to be sold at average £2k per sq. ft. now some are going at over £3k per sq ft so £500m looks maybe even low end ?
 
Somebody else has run the numbers on NTA

Looks good to me

Tellarian - 23 Dec'11 - 10:37 - 14838 of 14838

The important thing here is that the profit share is based on project costs. In the Minerva take out documents the build cost to completion was put at £288 million. Now we can do some basic math.

Project area 200,000 square feet

Selling rate £3,000 per square foot

Total from sales £600 million

Build costs £288 million

Profit say £300million after marketing, fees etc.

Profits up to 10% of Project Costs 5% = £28.8 x 0.05 = £1.44 million

Profits between 10% and 15% of Project Costs 20% = £14.4 x 0.2 = £2.88 million

Profits between 15% and 20% of Project Costs 40% = £14.4 x 0.4 = £5.76 million

Profits above 20% of Project Costs 50% = £242.4 x 0.5 = £121.2
 
No worries. Been having a closer read of that Techinvest sample issue for Dec 2011. Has got me wondering as to what they will tip for 2012. They mention quite pointedly they may tip something they have bought recently. Well it looks like they added CPX to their Trader Portfolio in last few months. CPX have had some very positive updates in last few weeks and I don't think the shares have reflected the turnaround fully. So I am hoping CPX gets tipped. But even if it doesn't I intend renting some more because the recent newsflow seems to be setting up for announcing some more major partners/deals.

e.g.

20th October - Confirmation of Murata Supercapacitor launch http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201110200700215129Q

23rd November - AGM Statement http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111230700205947S

8th December - Final Murata payment / Achievement of technical milestone for SMD http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111230700205947S

19th December - Grant to support marketing of SMD device globally http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201112190700111832U
 
Last edited:
Some decent rises on some stuff today. The Insti holders/sellers will have packed up for the holidays so MM's can't just ring up to get supply so are rationing using the price/spread instead.
 
Worth keeping an eye on these overhang plays. Many Instis were hit by redemptions late in the year so will have been forced sellers. It happened in 2008 as well and created opportunities for some huge bagger opportunities (GCM 13p to 130p in a few weeks late 2008/early 2009). If you are an Institutional manager and your clients want their money back you'll sell something worth 100p for 10p just to appease them and keep your job.

I suspect PVCS has been a victim of this. Yes solar story looks broken but they had cash of E40m and Property/Plant/Equipment worth over E200m so even in a orderly liquidation that should be worth much more than a Market Cap of £20m IMO
 
Atif Latif of Guardian Stockbrokers believes confidence is slowly returning to the small cap market.

'We see this as one of the best buying opportunities in the AIM market on a forward looking basis,' he said.

'Volumes are picking up as confidence returns in the AIM market and with that they are starting to compliment portfolios that are keen for some risk on trades.

'The recent sell off in the AIM market was rumoured to be due some forced liquidations but as this is not a frequent occurrence buyers are at the ready to enter on the long side at low valuations.'
 
S28,

Have you looked at EOG recently? There are rumours of a major shale gas deal in Uk with a US major...
 
don't trust these unconventional plays high cost to drill/upfront capex and long time to get flow if at all so very high risk e.g. IGAS which actually seems to be going back to conventional

not willing to play the greater fool theory on it either
 
GON - should be make or break time coming there

Last year in January they had Trading Update and February Final Results with March AGM

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Index.aspx?searchtype=3&words=gon

Last RNS was in November when they Cancelled and Granted Share Options

I fail to see why they would cancel,re-price,issue share options to Management / Board unless they expected the shares to go up from here so one assumes they have fairly robust idea that upcoming Updates will be good. They have previously suggested they should be in position to demonstrate 'significant monthly profits' by year end.

The http://www.pennysharemillionaire.com blog which follows GON's Chinese gaming sites is picking up lots of 'chatter' suggesting some good games are being launched which should help the business momentum.
 
Been looking at the companies tipped in newspapers last year to see how they performed. Someone in the guardian tipped HMV at the start of this year :))
 
DeadlyVenom said:
Been looking at the companies tipped in newspapers last year to see how they performed. Someone in the guardian tipped HMV at the start of this year :))
Click to expand...

Are you sure they have not got their wires crossed and meant to say good time to short it!! *LOL* I am not sure if I could see HMV going up. I think markets remain poor at this time and that unless somethign fundmentally changes with the worlds economy I think it may be a good time to start shorting and get ready for recession number 2
 
Not many tipsters will have come out looking too good this year. I think Techinvest and SCSW are both down 40-50% odd on their selections. You do usually get a bounceback after such bad years if that is any consolation. There is always a bull market somewhere. Last year it was in AGL, SXX and SRX. And we've collectively partaken in a few of those (won't mention the duffers :-p )

At the end of the day all you can do is try to get your process right in identifying value and let the market/prices take care of themselves.
 
s28 said:
Not many tipsters will have come out looking too good this year. I think Techinvest and SCSW are both down 40-50% odd on their selections. You do usually get a bounceback after such bad years if that is any consolation. There is always a bull market somewhere. Last year it was in AGL, SXX and SRX. And we've collectively partaken in a few of those (won't mention the duffers :-p )

At the end of the day all you can do is try to get your process right in identifying value and let the market/prices take care of themselves.
Click to expand...

Like the way you used the word *tipsters* and their was me thinking we were all pro-traders!!! Dam I think that is where I went wrong. I think next year will show that cash is king and that possibly best to look into the commodity market and spotting gold. If we do have another rescession I feel best to have cash ready to pick up some cheap shares.
 
Tom Winnifrith of t1ps.com doing his review for 2011. Of his 7 tips most are down shocking amounts. e.g. Norseman Gold NGL 68p to 5p

Almost makes SRB look good. Although to be fair NGL had nothing but bad news and SRB had nothing but good news.
 
Stumbled across this page whilst doing a scan for FOGL on message boards, any views on the fogl price on spudding, I would expect 80p-100p, expect markets to be dire in Apr/May but the potential of a massive discovery could lure investors in their masses.

Happy 2012 all, Jacob.
 
Hi Jacob,

Im hoping for around 90p ish pre spud but I dunno. s28 is the man with experience on these matters :p
 
I'd like to think FOGL will be c.100p on spud mainly because it is a nice round number and 100% up from here then I could take out my original investment and participate in the rest of the campaign with no worry about losing my capital.
 
Chinese and Indian PMI helping resources stocks and markets today.

FTSE and DOW looking reasonably strong technically having consolidated during the Euro / Sovereign debt worries.

p.php


p.php
 
VIX chart was giving a buy signal a few weeks back at height of the worry. Generally from this chart it looks like you want to be buying with VIX at 40 and Selling and VIX below 20. 20-30 range where we are now looks like being a more normal tradeable market.

z


z
 
Good summary from an experienced private investor

CockneyRebel - 3 Jan'12 - 20:37 - 122109 of 122110


Market definitely underwent a change a couple of weeks ago imo - strange things started happening including Euro rising, yields falling and the VIX getting firm.

Small Cap Index closed over its Dec high today - first time it's closed above a previous major high since October.

US breaking out and FTSE closed about 10 points off it's recent high, 12 points more and it will make a 5 month high. Russel 2000 close to making a 5 month high too.

Of course it all might not last - but Ihave long believed if you can get growth in the Far East and the US that would drag Europe up with it and if Europe starts to grow then it may be able to out-grow it's debt. If the rating agencies start to believe that they might stop cutting ratinging on countries or even start raising them down the line. If businesses and investors start to have faith in Europe not imploding then they might invest more, confidence may return and we get a self-fulfilling spiral on the up rather than on the down.

I heard on Bloomberg that analysts were the gloomiest in 7 years. So the last time they were this gloomy we were a year into a 4 year bull market. Whatever you think, there's a ton of bad news in the price of stocks.

Anyway, it might not last - the ECB is great a stealing defeat from the jaws of victory. But something feels a tad different lately, imo.

Short dated gilts have been falling - that's a change too that started a few months ago.

CR
 
Some really innovative companies out there right now.

FUM - Viagra condoms get all the publicity but interesting stuff for topical pain relief (TPR) and cellulite treatment as well.

CAR - they mainly seem to do LED / DRL lights for cars such as Lamborghini Aventador http://www.wipac.com/about-wipac/news/14-03-2011.aspx as well as loads of Audis/Mercs etc. But the big transformational news for CAR could come this year with $10m milestone due and potential volume sales of touch screens for mobile phones.

SCE - is ultra small cap (£4m) but provide carbon ceramic brakes for mainly supercars (e.g. Koenigsegg Agera http://www.surface-transforms.com/ ) and aircraft. Breakthrough would be getting into production volume cars.

http://www.stockopedia.co.uk/content/surface-transforms-patience-required-59214/
 
Last edited:
AGL - apparently the chat is that the next major news re proving their cancer diagnostic technology works with real cancer patient blood rather than spiked blood is due this month.
 
Hi guys. I have been trading on practice accounts for a few months now and feel ready to take the plunge.

Is www.x-o.co.uk still the cheapest broker or would you recommend another?

Thanks
 
ozzy_07 said:
Hi guys. I have been trading on practice accounts for a few months now and feel ready to take the plunge.

Is www.x-o.co.uk still the cheapest broker or would you recommend another?

Thanks
Click to expand...

x-o is still the cheapest out there and I still use it for small trades. The only downside is that it can sometimes take a few days for them to credit your account, so it isnt great for frequent trading.

Good luck mate.
 
jaspa888 said:
x-o is still the cheapest out there and I still use it for small trades. The only downside is that it can sometimes take a few days for them to credit your account, so it isnt great for frequent trading.

Good luck mate.
Click to expand...

Thanks a lot Jaspa.

What would you say is the best for more frequent trading?

Is the share centre any good?
 
ozzy_07 said:
Thanks a lot Jaspa.

What would you say is the best for more frequent trading?

Is the share centre any good?
Click to expand...

I use share centre and tdw for bigger trades. You get funds back immediately on a sale for reinvestment, you get a better spread and tdw also allows you to do t20 trades.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Hitman
Vietnam tycoon Truong My Lan sentenced to death in $12.5bn fraud case
Replies
3
Views
350
gazza619
gazza619
FearlessRoar
Pakistan’s top talent is leaving the country in record numbers
Replies
2
Views
149
big_gamer007
big_gamer007
MenInG
Record-breaking summit of K2 dogged by allegations that Western climbers left Pakistani man to die
Replies
19
Views
961
Cricket Warrior
C
The Bald Eagle
"Revamp it, revisit it and play it the way white ball cricket should be played": Imad Wasim
Replies
41
Views
2K
shamaan
S
Asad T
[VIDEO] "Match-fixing is still happening" Jarrod Kimber and David Lloyd
Replies
34
Views
2K
sweep_shot
sweep_shot
Back
Top