Edit - In texas, "which will be around $15 million barrels proven reserves." should be "which will be around 15 million barrels proven reserves."
Puntland - Ok little history first, Back in the 80s and early 90s, conoco philips, one of the US majors did some drilling, they did find oil and infact it was a blowout, so they had to cap it without reaching TD. This was at the edge of the field. Then civil war happened and they all ran away never to return. 15 years later, Range come in and do a deal with puntland but being a little tiddler, they had to bring on someone very experienced as JV partner. They brought in Canmex, who are part of the Lundin group. Then ruffling about who owns these rights, Gov in Mogadishu or the local Gov so Canmex started being targeted. Canmex then decide to change name and become Africal Oil and Lucas Lundin goes into the shadows. Suffice to say they are all people with very impressive CVs. Then for political and mostly security reasons, the drilling never happened.
Moving forward to 2010/2011, everyone starts to take positions as drilling starts to become a reality again. Range CEO decided it would be good to reduce their exposure and asked one of his mates and his tiddler company Red Emperor to come and join the partnership. He also gave them 20% of Georgia to further sweeten the deal. I will explain the reason for this shortly. In the meantime Africa Oil created a new vehicle called Horn Petroleum which would have 60% of the 2 blocks. But as they had missed deadlines for drilling in June 2011, they had to relinquish area from these blocks.
As it currently stands, Horn has 60%, Range 20% and Red Emperor 20%.
The two well campaign which is rumoured to begin on Monday, the first well is targeting over a billion barrels of oil. This is the same place Conoco Philips drilled and found oil all those years ago, but they were at the edge of the field whereas this well is right in the middle of the sweet spot! Nothing is ever guaranteed in life but it is highly likely they will find oil. Current estimate is that there could > 8 billions of barrels of oil onshore. The offshore is thought to have lot lot more. Some say up to 60 billion in place.
For offshore, Range has been in talks with another tiddler Marauder Resources from canada. The deal that is talked about is that Marauder will have 80% and Range 20% but crucially Range will be free carried through the siesmic stage. Also, the relinquished area, Range will have 66% and Marauder 34%. Most likely, RMP will be invited to join the party too and maybe even HORN. This deal is most likely to be be announced once the first well is drilled. You may ask why all these tiddlers and not the biggies, well firstly because its in unstable region but more crucially, all the great and good in Puntland are given large stakes in these small companies. They themselves will not drill and will be free carried when they bring in larger partners so they will be rolling in money (if successful) without actually spending much.
Range and Red Emperor
Basically Red Emperor has been set up to provide leverage to Georgia and especially Puntland for all those who put hands in their pockets and helped Range survive some really dark days when puntland looked like it was a no go and they had no other assets. The largest shareholders in both companies are the same and Red Emperor recently moved into Range offices in Perth. If Georgia and Puntland come good then RMP will be the one that will go really bezerk overnight as the mcap and shares in issues is almost 8 times less than Range. Most people who have shares in Range, have shares in RMP too. But remember the reverse is true as well if there is a failure.
The risks
Deadlines are rarely met. Infact, it would be safe to add 50% to the timeline given by the company.
Georgia - The hype suggested commercial hit was a mere formality on a wild cat drill. Then when the first well was drilled, the reality dawned with hitting the unexpected granite layer! The siesmics may well have been wrong and could well be true for the entire Georgia block!
Trinidad - More of a case of over promising with unrealistic timeline.
Puntland - Its a wild cat drill. Also, if they find oil, the Somalis might fighting each other about who owns the oil.
The CEO keeps adding projects to the portfolio without ever bringing to fruition the ones on hand.
Important note - For me all this would not have been possible without PP and then DV starting this thread and most importantly Jaspa mentioning RRL on page 1 back in 2010