How did Pakistan's economy perform during Imran Khan's era?

[saeedhk]

Are you seriously going to use an extract of a quote to make your own point ?

Im sensing a pattern here. You seem to offer alot of ranting and frothing at the mouth, but nothing of substance in points.

Again, you can watch his speech and tell me what it means. It is self-explanatory.

 

[Thunderbolt14]

That's true, but if you look at the Statistia link it says agriculture is 4% of the world's GDP. It is crazy to imagine that India would try to annex "Punjab's agricultural lands". In the modern world developing an economy requires building modern industries, not casting covetous glances at neighbors' agricultural lands. Last ruler to think that was Hitler who wanted the Ukrainian breadbasket, and we all know how that ended

Again this discussion isn’t about the world, it’s about the subcontinent where agriculture is 4 times worth the GDP. It also comprises a chunk of exports, and India alone produces 10.04% of all food in the world. Pakistan produces another 2% - together, India and Pakistan produce 12-13% of all food that is currently being produced.

Developing an economy does require modern industry, but agriculture remains and will always remain a top industry since humans have to eat.

 

[the Great Khan]

At least, my tax pounds are not funding the bombs that drop off the backs of Typhoons and onto hapless Muslims.

is that the best you've got? stick to one line slogans. Substance isnt one of your forte's. Don't your tax dollars fund the occupation of Kashmir? but lest I give you a an economics lesson thats not quite how tax dollars in the west work. but thats a discussion for grown ups, not 13 year olds.

 

[saeedhk]

is that the best you've got? stick to one line slogans. Substance isnt one of your forte's. Don't your tax dollars fund the occupation of Kashmir? but lest I give you a an economics lesson thats not quite how tax dollars in the west work. but thats a discussion for grown ups, not 13 year olds.

It seems like I have hit a raw nerve. That is exactly how tax dollars work. And no, my tax dollars are not funding wars against Muslims Alhumdulillah.

 

[the Great Khan]

It seems like I have hit a raw nerve. That is exactly how tax dollars work. And no, my tax dollars are not funding wars against Muslims Alhumdulillah.

chulo achi baat hay khosh roho, feel pleased you hit " a nerve" mashallah..about the only accomplishment of your time on this forum.

 

[Pakpak]

At least, my tax pounds are not funding the bombs that drop off the backs of Typhoons and onto hapless Muslims.

Your countrymen are busy killing Kashmiris and lynching Muslims in India.

 

[saeedhk]

Now that, according to Transparency International, corruption in Pakistan has worsened, whose fault is it? Imran’s or the previous government? Because whatever goes right in the country, it is automatically a result of Immy’s hard work, honesty and competency and whatever goes wrong, it is a result of the previous government.

 

[Mamoon]

Now that, according to Transparency International, corruption in Pakistan has worsened, whose fault is it? Imran’s or the previous government? Because whatever goes right in the country, it is automatically a result of Immy’s hard work, honesty and competency and whatever goes wrong, it is a result of the previous government.

PTI supporters are now clutching at straws and telling everyone that the data is from the PMLN tenure, but that lie has been exposed as well. It is from 2019-20.

If corruption would have decreased according to this report, they would be sharing the news and distributing mithai, praising the leadership of Imran Khan.

Now, they are making excuses, questioning the credibility of the report and putting blame on others.

This is the most incompetent, corrupt and dishonest government in Pakistan history. They have pulled off a scam on the entire nation.

 

[Mamoon]

Shahbaz Gill’s desperate lies to defend the Amnesty report have been brutally exposed.

How embarrassing.

 

[Bewal Express]

PTI supporters are now clutching at straws and telling everyone that the data is from the PMLN tenure, but that lie has been exposed as well. It is from 2019-20.

If corruption would have decreased according to this report, they would be sharing the news and distributing mithai, praising the leadership of Imran Khan.

Now, they are making excuses, questioning the credibility of the report and putting blame on others.

This is the most incompetent, corrupt and dishonest government in Pakistan history. They have pulled off a scam on the entire nation.

Firstly, its nice that we have smoked you out of your hole. Corruption hasnt increased and the obvious evidence is the the PDM has failed. They have no support and that is an important indicator.
Perception is based on many things not least the Sindh govt stealing everything in sight.

 

[Bewal Express]

Now that, according to Transparency International, corruption in Pakistan has worsened, whose fault is it? Imran’s or the previous government? Because whatever goes right in the country, it is automatically a result of Immy’s hard work, honesty and competency and whatever goes wrong, it is a result of the previous government.

Sindh govt

 

[Mamoon]

28 Jan:

I welcome Transparency International’s report. When it is translated in Urdu, then the Opposition will know (that it is actually an indictment for them) - PM Imran Khan

29 Jan:

I haven’t read Transparency International’s report - PM Imran Khan

) ) )

Typical Imran Khan. The comedy act continues.

 

[Bewal Express]

28 Jan:

I welcome Transparency International’s report. When it is translated in Urdu, then the Opposition will know (that it is actually an indictment for them) - PM Imran Khan

29 Jan:

I haven’t read Transparency International’s report - PM Imran Khan

) ) )

Typical Imran Khan. The comedy act continues.

So you are looking for anything these days. Too much time on Maryams and Geo twitter accounts. When you are on there, ask them when the Nooras resigning .

 

[saeedhk]

Sindh govt

Does the report categorically mention the Sindh government?

 

[Bewal Express]

Does the report categorically mention the Sindh government?

Sindh is part of PK.

 

[saeedhk]

Sindh is part of PK.

Yes, I know. But does the report point out that the Sindh govt is responsible for the worsening corruption? Does it mean, last year, Pakistan’s improvement in the ranking was a result of Sindh government’s efforts.

 

[Bewal Express]

Yes, I know. But does the report point out that the Sindh govt is responsible for the worsening corruption? Does it mean, last year, Pakistan’s improvement in the ranking was a result of Sindh government’s efforts.

This is a perception index, Sindh is the most corrupt province, it would make up at least 20% of the survey. You do the maths

 

[Bigboii]

FYI PPP=Sindh atleast a decade

The report shows worsening of corruption in Pak
Why is it that a party in gov for more than a decade is responsible for worsening of corruption

Shouldn't those levels be stagnant...

 

[saeedhk]

This is a perception index, Sindh is the most corrupt province, it would make up at least 20% of the survey. You do the maths

Again, does the report say it is due to Sindh government?

 

[Bewal Express]

Again, does the report say it is due to Sindh government?

Yes. As its a report for PK and its Sindh that is the most corrupt.

 

[Bewal Express]

FYI PPP=Sindh atleast a decade

The report shows worsening of corruption in Pak
Why is it that a party in gov for more than a decade is responsible for worsening of corruption

Shouldn't those levels be stagnant...

Because we have seen improvements in Punjab and KP( albeit not massive ones). So where is the perception being created

 

[Gharib Aadmi]

These are the Transparency International Corruption Index score of Pakistan:

in 2018 score was 33, and Pakistan was ranked 117 out of 180.
in 2019 score was 32, and Pakistan was ranked 120 out of 180.
in 2020 score was 31, and Pakistan was ranked 124 out of 180.

These scores while not a huge difference, and within the margin of error, show a downward trend. So this is not a good look for PTI.

However its will not effect PTI in 2023. As far as the majority of Pakistanis are concerned PML N and PPP are the thieves.

 

[saeedhk]

Yes. As its a report for PK and its Sindh that is the most corrupt.

Can you please provide a quote from the report that suggests this?

 

[Bewal Express]

Can you please provide a quote from the report that suggests this?

Why do I need to provide a quote, if their methodology is right then it would have picked up the mafia province Sindh has become. It makes up 20% of the population and hence 20% of the sample. If it doesn't then the perception index is no such thing.

 

[Bewal Express]

These are the Transparency International Corruption Index score of Pakistan:

in 2018 score was 33, and Pakistan was ranked 117 out of 180.
in 2019 score was 32, and Pakistan was ranked 120 out of 180.
in 2020 score was 31, and Pakistan was ranked 124 out of 180.

These scores while not a huge difference, and within the margin of error, show a downward trend. So this is not a good look for PTI.

However its will not effect PTI in 2023. As far as the majority of Pakistanis are concerned PML N and PPP are the thieves.

What creates perception of corruption? For me its the Police, bureaucracy and Judiciary. Well NAB which is the investigator and prosecutor of corruption has a chairman appointed by AZ and NS, the bureaucracy hasn't been reformed and that is IKs failure, and the most institution in PK is the Judiciary and they are out of the control of IK. All the high courts-LHC, SHC and IHC are corrupt and can't be reformed. The LHC opened opened on Sunday to give Hamza Shabaz bail. Does that increase perception of corruption?

 

[MenInG]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-partner="tweetdeck"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">More good news on the economic front. Our efforts to reduce inflation are now showing results. Consumer price index & core inflation are both now lower than when our government was formed. I have told my economic team to stay vigilant & ensure that inflation stays under control.</p>— Imran Khan (@ImranKhanPTI) <a href="https://twitter.com/ImranKhanPTI/status/1355794501722398722?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 31, 2021</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[saeedhk]

Price of petrol has gone up by almost 3 rupees. Like before, rumors were circulated that petrol would go up by Rs12 but then it was increased by Rs3 only. This is the MO!

First, tell the public that petrol price would go up for a big margin then jack up the price of petrol by a few rupees so as to fool and placate the public.

 

[Gharib Aadmi]

What creates perception of corruption? For me its the Police, bureaucracy and Judiciary. Well NAB which is the investigator and prosecutor of corruption has a chairman appointed by AZ and NS, the bureaucracy hasn't been reformed and that is IKs failure, and the most institution in PK is the Judiciary and they are out of the control of IK. All the high courts-LHC, SHC and IHC are corrupt and can't be reformed. The LHC opened opened on Sunday to give Hamza Shabaz bail. Does that increase perception of corruption?

This is what the TI uses to calculate the score.

Which manifestations of corruption does the CPI capture?
CPI source data captures the following aspects of corruption, based on the specific
question wording used to collect the data:
• Bribery
• Diversion of public funds
• Prevalence of officials using public office for private gain without facing
consequences
• Ability of governments to contain corruption and enforce effective integrity
mechanisms in the public sector
• Red tape and excessive bureaucratic burden which may increase
opportunities for corruption
• Meritocratic versus nepotistic appointments in the civil service
• Effective criminal prosecution for corrupt officials
• Adequate laws on financial disclosure and conflict of interest prevention for
public officials
• Legal protection for whistleblowers, journalists, investigators when they are
reporting cases of bribery and corruption
• State capture by narrow vested interests
• Access of civil society to information on public affairs

Which manifestations of corruption does the CPI not capture?
CPI source data does not capture the following aspects of corruption:
• Citizens’ perceptions or experience of corruption
• Tax fraud
• Illicit financial flows
• Enablers of corruption (lawyers, accountants, financial advisors etc)
• Money-laundering
• Private sector corruption
• Informal economies and markets


So based on this the trial of Hamza Shahbaaz should imrove Pakistan score.

The reason Pakistan score decreased was this:

Pakistan has scored lower than the last year in two sources: rule of law index and varieties of democracy (VDem) due to which Pakistan score in the CPI 2020 reduced by one point, said Sohail Muzaffar, the TI Pakistan chairman.

http://www.transparency.org.pk/pakistan-sinks-four-notches-on-tis-corruption-index/

 

[Bewal Express]

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2282937/economic-gains-pti-needs-better-communication-strategy

 

[Firebat]

PM Imran says economic indicators improving despite challenges

Prime Minister Imran Khan on Thursday said Pakistan's economic indicators had improved compared to other countries despite the Covid-19 pandemic, adding that the country's exports had shown an increase higher than that of its regional competitors.

The prime minister was speaking at a ceremony in Islamabad celebrating the milestone of the Roshan Digital Accounts (RDA) initiative crossing the $500 million mark in remittances. He has previously commented on this milestone in statement on Twitter.

“I want to thank our Overseas Pakistanis for responding so strongly to SBP’s #RoshanDigitalAccounts. 87,833 accounts opened from 97 countries around the world. $500 million sent to Pakistan in just 5 months. Momentum continues to rise with $243 million coming in last 6 weeks alone,” PM Khan tweeted on Tuesday.

The RDA — a joint initiative of the government and the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) in collaboration with commercial banks operating in the country — was inaugurated by the premier in September 2020. The main purpose of the initiative is to attract millions of Pakistanis living abroad by offering much higher returns on deposits compared to returns in the developed economies.

Speaking on the improvements in economic indicators, he said Pakistan had seen a record improvement in exports, which had risen more than its competitors in the region such as India and Bangladesh.

This, he said, happened at a time when economies of other countries were suffering due to the pandemic yet "Pakistan's economy is going in a positive direction."

He paid particular emphasis on the growth in Pakistan's textile sector and how it was attracting investment and new textile mills were being opened.

"They can't find [enough] skilled workers for textile factories in Faisalabad, Gujranwala, Sialkot," the premier said, adding that this was all a result of the "conscious effort" of the government to increase exports and keep the rupee stable.

The prime minister said there had been a "record" current account deficit when the PTI assumed power. He said this depreciated the rupee which caused prices of imports to rise, something which impacted the poor the most.

"Our people suffered through a tough time. We realised that until our reserves are not built up, we won't get investment in the correct way," he said. The long term solution for this was to "increase exports".

He also pointed out the record repayment of debt his government had achieved, saying around Rs6,000 billion in debts had been repaid.

The premier said the success of the RDA initiative was due to the efforts of overseas Pakistanis but added that "there is still great potential left [to be tapped]".

He said his interaction with overseas Pakistanis had always been present since his days as a cricketer. "When I started fund raising for Shaukat Khanum [Memorial Cancer Hospital], they were the biggest donors, so I realised that this was a major potential."

He urged the SBP to create a specialised cell to address the issues of overseas Pakistanis and to facilitate them, especially those abroad who wanted to send remittances back. "The faster you do this the more the amounts will increase," said the prime minister.

Imran said more could be done to advertise the RDA initiative to overseas Pakistanis and he believed that the electronic media currently was lagged behind in effectively providing information.

The premier also lauded the role played by banks in the RDA initiative and called upon them to use their profits to grow the economy. He said the role of the banks was critical to ensure success of two other initiatives by his government: Naya Pakistan Housing Scheme and the development of small and medium (SME) industry.

"Foreclosure laws were a major hurdle," said the prime minister, adding that everyone dreams of buying their own house. He called upon banks to thus "participate fully" in the scheme because "it is the one thing that can pick up our growth rate."

https://www.dawn.com/news/1608045/pm-imran-says-economic-indicators-improving-despite-challenges

 

[saeedhk]

My relative who is a die-hard PTI was fuming when I met him yesterday. He just came back from Pakistan and he said the country has never seen such inflation before. Chicken is being sold for Rs 400 per kg! It used to be Rs 150 per kg just two years back.

 

[Savak]

My relative who is a die-hard PTI was fuming when I met him yesterday. He just came back from Pakistan and he said the country has never seen such inflation before. Chicken is being sold for Rs 400 per kg! It used to be Rs 150 per kg just two years back.

Is there any country on this planet where they have had to go through economic suicide in the short run for long term economic prosperity?

 

[saeedhk]

Is there any country on this planet where they have had to go through economic suicide in the short run for long term economic prosperity?

We are talking about inflation. The prices of basic necessities which so high that the common man cannot even think of buying them.

 

[pakistanisgreat]

My relative who is a die-hard PTI was fuming when I met him yesterday. He just came back from Pakistan and he said the country has never seen such inflation before. Chicken is being sold for Rs 400 per kg! It used to be Rs 150 per kg just two years back.

the bigger problem is that if you ask your relative any question, he would still say there is no poverty in the country.

 

[pakistanisgreat]

We are talking about inflation. The prices of basic necessities which so high that the common man cannot even think of buying them.

agree with that. in the market pakistan is getting oil 63 rupees litter but we are selling for 112 per LR. you can not charge 50 rupees tax per litter.

 

[Gharib Aadmi]

Now that Hafeez Sheikh has lost the Senate race he wont be able to stay on as Finance Minister. Will Imran take the portfolio for himself and appoint Sheikh as his advisor, or will Pakistan get a new Finance Minister.

 

[saeedhk]

the bigger problem is that if you ask your relative any question, he would still say there is no poverty in the country.

People are very delusional here.

 

[MenInG]

Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan’s victory in a confidence vote in Parliament, gave a boost to his fragile government and may help lure investors to its equity markets.

Khan got 178 votes from members of his Tehreek-e-Insaf party and allies in the 342-seat lower house National Assembly, proving majority, Speaker Asad Qaiser said in televised meeting in Islamabad on Saturday.

His win may temporarily bring stability to the South Asian nation as its economy recovers from the pandemic-induced contraction with the help of the International Monetary Fund’s $6 billion loan program. With U.S. President Joe Biden urging allies to uphold democracy, stability in Pakistan is an advantage in the region, which is already reeling from a coup in Myanmar.

Pakistan stocks poised to gain
“For the next six months I see a clear road of bullishness,” said Ayub Khuhro, chief investment officer at Faysal Asset Management Ltd. The fund manager will be buying stocks, he said.

The benchmark KSE-100 Index rose 1.3 percent on Monday, extending its gains to 70% since March 25 when countries went into lockdown because of coronavirus.

The army-backed former cricket star voluntarily sought the confidence vote after his finance minister Abdul Hafeez Shaikh unexpectedly lost an election for a Senate seat to an opposition-backed candidate on Wednesday, triggering a debate Khan had lost the majority support.

The strong military, which has an outsized role in Khan’s administration - with a say in matters from foreign policy and security to economic decisions, - may be relieved to see him surviving the vote.

“Political uncertainty has decreased because of this,” said Amjad Waheed, chief executive officer at NBP Fund Management Ltd., the nation’s largest fund manager with 170 billion rupees ($1 billion) in assets. “It can never end in Pakistan. It’s a favorite pass time to talk about politics. We don’t talk about health, education or anything else.”

Khan indeed faces another test this week. The nation’s upper house will elect a chairman on March 12 in a secret ballot. Should Khan’s candidate win that vote, it will make it easier for the premier to get laws enacted, said Faysal Asset’s Khuhro.

Meanwhile, the Senate result has been a boost for the opposition alliance that plans to march on Islamabad on March 26 to topple Khan’s government, two years before he finishes a five-year term. The alliance includes the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz led by ex-premier Nawaz Sharif and the Pakistan Peoples Party of former President Asif Ali Zardari.

“For the last couple of years, politics was not an active variable but now we will need to follow it,” Muhammad Asim, CIO at MCB-Arif Habib Savings and Investments said by phone.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...set-to-revive-bullishness-in-pakistan-markets

 

[saeedhk]

Chicken touches record price of Rs 450 per kg. It has gone up three-fold in two years. This is pathetic! Never have I seen inflation this high!

 

[Thunderbolt14]

Chicken touches record price of Rs 450 per kg. It has gone up three-fold in two years. This is pathetic! Never have I seen inflation this high!

Kindly explain what causes inflation.

 

[Last Monetarist]

Farmers perturbed over sharp rise in fertiliser prices

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2287876/farmers-perturbed-over-sharp-rise-in-fertiliser-prices

Farmers have voiced harsh criticism over the sharp rise in price of fertilisers and expressed concern that the hike would place additional burden on the already suffering agriculture sector.

In a letter addressed to Minister for National Food Security Syed Fakhar Imam, officials from the Sindh Abadgar Board (SAB) remarked that a steep increase in prices of phosphorous and potash based fertilisers will aggravate troubles of the farmers.

It pointed out that the price of di-ammonium phosphate (DAP) jumped from Rs3,800 in December 2020 to Rs5,300 in March 2021. Similarly, cost of nitrophosphate fertiliser soared to Rs3,500 in March from Rs2,700 in December 2020. The letter pointed out that sulfate of potash (SOP) became costlier by Rs300 since December 2020 to Rs4,800 during the ongoing month.

“The usage of phosphorous and potash is not optimum in Pakistan due to already high prices and this translates into lower crop yields,” said SAB Senior Vice President Mahmood Nawaz Shah while talking to The Express Tribune. “A further increase in their prices will discourage farmers from using these vital nutrients and raise the cost of production significantly.”

He highlighted that even before the spike in fertiliser prices, the cost of inputs in Pakistan stood significantly higher than India and the recent increase in fertiliser cost would hit the competitiveness of local farmers at the international level.

Shah urged the Ministry of National Food Security to take immediate notice of the soaring costs of inputs and introduce remedial measures to rationalise their prices in a bid to keep the rates of agricultural commodities under control. He termed it essential for Pakistan to devise a policy to enhance crop yield and productivity across the country.

A rise in input cost for growers will affect the cost of the final product, which means that the end consumer will suffer leading to difficulties for the government, said a former president of Federation of Pakistan Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FPCCI). “The share of food in inflation basket is massive because it affects all sectors of the economy,” he highlighted, adding, “The government should take notice of the ongoing situation in the greater interest of the country.”

Pakistan Kissan Ittehad Secretary General Mian Umair Masood said that the price of DAP stood at Rs2,400 per bag in mid-2018, however, it has now skyrocketed to Rs5,200 per bag. Soaring global phosphorus prices are having a spillover impact on local supplies of fertilisers, said Insight Securities analyst Muhammad Shahroz.

According to industry sources, farmers have not received the subsidy announced by the government, said Taurus Securities analyst Ameer Hamza.

 

[saeedhk]

Kindly explain what causes inflation.

Whatever the reasons are, it is totally unacceptable.

 

[Thunderbolt14]

Whatever the reasons are, it is totally unacceptable.

You’re absolutely right, it’s totally unacceptable. That’s why, after understanding the reasons, I have made a decision to never in my life vote for a Sharif or a Bhutto.

 

[Last Monetarist]

The prognosis remains bleak.

World Bank sees 1.3pc growth for FY22

https://www.dawn.com/news/1611674/world-bank-sees-13pc-growth-for-fy22

Pakistan’s economic growth is projected to remain below potential, averaging 1.3 per cent for 2021-22, says a new World Bank report released on Tuesday.

This base-line projection, which is highly uncertain, is predicted on the absence of significant infection flare-ups or subsequent waves that would require further widespread lockdowns, according to the “South Asia Economic Focus: Beaten or Broken, Informality and Covid-19”.

The report says the current account deficit (CAD) is expected to widen to an average of 1.5pc of GDP over 2021-22, with imports and exports gradually picking up as domestic demand and global conditions improve.

The fiscal deficit is projected to narrow to 7.4pc in FY22, with the resumption of fiscal consolidation and stronger revenue driven by recovering economic activity and critical structural reforms.

On the other hand, expenditures will remain substantial due to sizeable interest payments, a rising salary and pension bill, and absorption of energy state-owned enterprise (SOE) guaranteed debt by the government, the report says.

Given anemic growth projections in the near term, poverty is expected to worsen, and vulnerable households rely on jobs in the services sector, and the projected weak services growth is likely to be insufficient to reverse the higher poverty rates precipitated by the pandemic.

About risks and challenges, the report says there are considerable downside risks to the outlook with the most significant being a possible resurgence of the infection, triggering a new wave of global and or domestic lockdowns and further delaying the implementation of crucial structural reforms.

Locust attacks and heavy monsoon rains could lead to widespread crop damage, food insecurity and inflationary pressures, and livelihoods for households dependent primarily on agriculture could also be negatively impacted.

Finally, external financing risks could be compounded by difficulties in rolling-over bilateral debt from non-traditional donors and tighter international financing conditions, report says.

 

[Firebat]

PSX bleeds 911 points amid continued political uncertainty, fear of new taxes

Stocks extended their decline for a fourth day when the KSE-100 index plunged by another 911.92 points, or 2.09 per cent, to settle at 42,779.76 points on Thursday.

After the market opened at 43,691.68 points, the index hit an intraday high of 43,891.00 but entered the red territory as the day wore on. It recorded an intraday low of 42,688.20 – down 1,003 points.

The bear rampage has heavily dented the stock market since the start of the week with the KSE-100 index dragged down by 3,057 points, which market watchers said had wiped off all the gains since January 1.

On Wednesday, the PSX had lost 531.23 points, or 1.20pc, breaking the 44,000 psychological support and settling at 43,691.68 points.

The gathering clouds on the political horizon spooked investors who decided to unwind positions ahead of the heated events of election of chairman and deputy chairman of the Senate, scheduled for tomorrow, followed by the opposition’s threat of a long march.

KASB Securities Chairman Ali Farid Khwaja said there were multiple reasons for the decline.

He said concerns about political uncertainty were likely to remain until there was clarity on the Senate chairperson elections front, which are said to be a close contest between the ruling PTI and the opposition.

Secondly, the news about new taxes and removal of tax incentives given to the construction sector and other industries including IT, REITS, mutual funds, etc. "is creating a bit of a panic", he noted.

Thirdly, Khwaja said, "the scare of inflation has returned, especially with oil prices reaching $70. The market is starting to price in expectation of an interest rate hike.

"This will lead to a sector rotation out from cyclical stocks such as cement and steel into banks and oil and gas," he added, saying the trend could also broadly lead to capital flight from equities into bonds.

The political situation in the country remains uncertain after the ruling PTI government faced an upset on the Islamabad Senate seat last week, where opposition's Yousuf Raza Gilani defeated Finance Minister Hafeez Shaikh by five votes, forcing Prime Minister Imran Khan to go for a vote of confidence from the National Assembly.

Zubair Ghulam Hussain, CEO of Insight Securities, said they advised profit-taking around the 45,900 levels, following which the market has been down by 6.5pc in four straight sessions.

"Concerns on inflation and interest rates with oil at $65 remained at the core of our call and to a small extent politics," he said, adding that although these concerns still remained, valuations had opened up to a large extent.

"We think that the market is near its bottom [and] advise cherry-picking here at the current levels of 42,900."

https://www.dawn.com/news/1611921/p...inued-political-uncertainty-fear-of-new-taxes

 

[Last Monetarist]

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2289135/pakistan-confident-uae-will-rollover-1b-loan

The finance ministry has said that it is “confident” that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) will rollover the $1 billion loan that matured on Friday, quelling reports that Dubai had withdrawn the financial support.

The $1 billion loan was part of the $6.2 billion initial bailout that the UAE had announced in late 2018, helping the government of Prime Minister Imran Khan to avoid default on international debt obligations.

“Pakistan and the UAE are great friends and we are confident of a rollover”, Finance Secretary Kamran Ali Afzal said, while responding to a query whether the UAE extended $1 billion support for one more year.

The loan matured on Friday. A senior ministry official said that the money was not going back and the UAE has informed Pakistan that it would rollover the $1 billion. Out of the committed $6.2 billion, the UAE disbursed $2 billion. It did not make the $3.2 billion oil financing facility and also withheld last $1 billion cash disbursements.

Finance ministry sources had told The Express Tribune that less disbursements by the UAE as against the commitments were because of Pakistan’s decision to avail $500 million cash support from Qatar.

The UAE has already rolled over $1 billion deposit for another year, which matured in January this year. The UAE decision to rollover its loans provided a breathing space to Pakistan.

The financial assistance packages announced by Saudi Arabia and the UAE helped Pakistan to buy time to negotiate a deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). But the implementation of the IMF deal is also stalled for last 13 months, which is now expected to be revived in the fourth week of this month.

Pakistan had returned the Saudi loan by securing three different financing pipelines from China. Beijing gave $1 billion as soft loan, a credit-swap financing line of $1.5 billion and $500 million commercial loan from the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China.

The Chinese assistance helped the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) in maintaining the gross foreign exchange reserves of around $13 billion.

The government is currently implementing various conditions to revive the stalled IMF programme. Subject to meeting all these conditions, the IMF Executive Board might approve the next tranche on March 24th.

As part of the IMF conditions, the government is amending the State Bank of Pakistan Act of 1956. One of the clauses of the new bill relates to definition of the monetary liabilities of the central bank. About $4.5 billion Chinese loans taken in the shape of credit swaps are not part of the external public debt of the country.

The government has proposed a new definition of “monetary liabilities”, which will transfer such liabilities of the central bank on the books of the federal government. The monetary liabilities are proposed to be calculated by reducing the sum of “deposits of the government, amounts owing to the IMF, the WB, the ADB or other such instruments, deposits of foreign central banks or sovereign wealth funds, utilised swap lines of foreign central banks and balance of participant central banks under any clearing union”.

Before formally approving the $6 billion bailout package in July 2019, the IMF had assured commitments from the UAE, China and Saudi Arabia that these countries would not withdraw their financial support to Pakistan during the IMF programme period, according to the sources.

In its reports, the IMF has described rollover of these loans critical for Pakistan’s external debt sustainability, as the country remains unable to enhance its exports that can replace these loans.

 

[MenInG]

Prime Minister Imran Khan says planting olives can bring foreign exchange into Pakistan.

He was speaking after launching the olive plantation campaign in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa's Nowshera district on Monday.

The olive plantation is part of the ten billion tree Tsunami programme.

PM Khan was accompanied by Defence Minister Pervez Khattak, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Governor Shah Farman, KP Chief Minister Mahmood Khan, and Special Assistant on Climate Change Amin Aslam.

Read more: Smog is a 'silent killer', can reduce lifespans by 6-11 years, says PM Imran Khan

The premier spoke about the importance of olives.

He said the impact of olive production will not help just KP, but all of Pakistan.

The premier pointed out that food security is one of Pakistan's biggest challenges.

"There was a time Pakistan was exporting wheat," PM Khan said, adding that this year Pakistan had to import four million tonnes of wheat.

Similarly, he said, Pakistan also had to import sugar.

"We already import edible oils like ghee and palm oils. Our biggest challenge in the coming days is how we will provide our people with food and good nutrition," he said.

He then spoke about the challenge of foreign exchange reserves and emphasised on the difference in the country's import and export figures.

"Pollution is fast increasing in our cities," he said.

The premier then said that the 10 billion Tsunami project will protect our future generation.

He urged the youth of Pakistan to contribute to the project for their own sake.

Olives can bring foriegn exchange into Pakistan, he said, reasoning that it could save the country funds.

The government is giving priority to olive cultivation which will not only make the farmers prosper but also help save foreign exchange.

Pakistan spends a lot on the import of edible oil that can be reduced with the production of olive oil locally by planting olive trees particularly on western bank of the Sindh River, he said.

The production of olive oil can also generate news jobs and flourish businesses in the country.

 

[leg-side-flick]

Chicken touches record price of Rs 450 per kg. It has gone up three-fold in two years. This is pathetic! Never have I seen inflation this high!

Even in India it's Rs 200/KG, adjusting for currency, the price looks fine to me....

 

[OMB]

Large-scale manufacturing rises 9.13pc in January

The overall output of large-scale manufacturing industries (LSMI) has increased by 7.85 per cent in the first seven months of fiscal year 2021 (July 2020 to January 2021) compared to the same period last year.

According to data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) on Tuesday, the LSMI output increased by 9.13pc for Jan 2021 compared to Jan 2020, and 5.36pc over Dec 2020.

"The sustained and robust growth in the industry is expected to lift economic growth beyond earlier forecasts," Minister for Industries Hammad Azhar said on Twitter.

The LSM index touched its second highest level of 175.15 earlier in January. Previously, it touched a high of 175.17 in March 2018, Topline Securities research highlighted.

Production in the first seven months of FY 2021, as compared to the same period last year, has increased in several sectors including textile, food, beverages, tobacco, petroleum products, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, non-metallic mineral products, automobiles and fertilisers.

It has decreased in some sectors such as electronics, leather products and engineering products.

https://www.dawn.com/news/1612839/large-scale-manufacturing-rises-913pc-in-january

 

[Last Monetarist]

https://www.dawn.com/news/1612971/rupee-hits-one-year-high-against-dollar

he rupee on Tuesday soared to one-year high against the US dollar at Rs156.72 in the interbank market.

The dollar was traded at Rs156.58 on March 9, 2020. The local currency has been recovering gradually against the greenback on account of improved foreign exchange reserves, higher remittances and current account surplus.

The dollar has lost over 7pc against the rupee after hitting an all-time high of Rs168.43 in August 2020.

 

[Savak]

Will we ever see the days when the Dollars falls vs the Rs and where One Rs is worth $10-$20?

 

[Varun]

Will we ever see the days when the Dollars falls vs the Rs and where One Rs is worth $10-$20?

Yep. Just remonetize it where 1 New PKR = 1000 Current PKR.

Either that or become a serious net exporter with a positive current account deficit.

Have a look at the Japanese Yen though. They're a developed economy but the PKR is stronger than it.

 

[Last Monetarist]

https://www.dawn.com/news/1613732/plan-to-hike-power-tariff-through-ordinance-assailed

Two major opposition parties lashed out on Saturday at the government over its plan to meet conditions set by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) through promulgation of ordinances envisaging sizeable increase in electricity tariff.

In a strong-worded statement, spokesperson for the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz Marriyum Aurangzeb asked the “selected prime minister and his rented mouthpieces” to stop telling lies and declare openly they were “about to drop a Rs884 billion electricity bomb” on the nation.

She said that Imran Khan was the “first” prime minister who was “robbing” the nation through ordinances. The inco*m*petent government was now bringing in “new ordinance(s) to loot the nation”.

Ms Aurangzeb also criticised the government for trying to change the constitutional scheme of secret balloting for Senate elections through an ordinance that was trashed by the Supreme Court.

“It is an act of utter insensitivity, apathy, shamelessness and arrogance to legalise kleptocracy and whimsical increase in tariffs and costs of utilities and everyday commodities, including food. Increase of (about) Rs6 per unit of electricity through ordinance is equal to burying the people of Pakistan alive,” she said.

“The people of Pakistan should get ready for an uncontainable flood of inflation in the country,” said the former federal minister.

The PML-N spokesperson said the government that had been imposed on the people should take steps to check the skyrocketing prices of cooking oil, ghee, eggs, chicken and lentils, instead of “making up lies” about the opposition.

After presiding over a hefty increase in the prices of wheat flour, sugar, medicine and other items, the government was about to drop a Rs884bn electricity bomb on the people, added Ms Aurangzeb.

Pakistan Peoples Party’s parliamentary leader in the Senate Sherry Rehman also took the government to task over its plan to issue three ordinances to comply with the IMF directives.

“New ordinance will give right to Nepra [National Electric Power Regulatory Authority] to bypass even cabinet and keep hiking electricity prices on IMF’s orders. Rs884b will be collected from consumers at a whopping Rs5.6 tariff hike in a series of new charges taking electricity bills up by 36pc minus taxes,” she tweeted.

In another tweet, she said the housing projects that the government was projecting as its own welfare scheme for labourers was in fact launched by the last PPP government in 2012. The Workers Welfare Fund land was purchased in 1996 by the late former prime minister Benazir Bhutto. Just like the Benazir Income Support Programme that they have rebranded as Ehsaas.

“Ordinances, not laws, to be issued soon for Rs290bn taxes. As per IMF orders. This is actually a money bill which really should not be an ordinance,” she added.

In a statement, PPP Secretary General Nayyar Hussain Bukhari also rejected the proposed “surcharge on power consumers”. He regretted that under tough IMF conditions, a move was afoot to collect Rs150bn surcharge from electricity consumers.

Mr Bukhari lamented that all subsidies were being withdrawn from the people, who were already drowning “under a tsunami of price hike”.

He said that frequent hikes in gas and power tariffs and petrol price were leading to closure of industrial units and also adversely affecting exports.

In a move meant to fulfil the IMF conditions for securing release of $500 million tranche, the government has decided to implement the withdrawal of corporate tax exemptions and putting in place a mechanism for automatic electricity tariff increases of Rs5.36 per unit over the next 27 months through presidential ordinances.

“In order to show the resolve of the federal government regarding the implementation of the Circular Debt Management Plan (CDMP), and streamlining the tariff determination process, it will be essential to introduce the amendments… as early as possible. It is, therefore, proposed that said amendments may be introduced through an ordinance,” said a summary moved by the power division to the federal cabinet for approval.

The ordinance will be called “Ordinance to Further Amend the Regulation of Generation, Transmission and Distribution of Electric Power Act 1997”.

 

[MenInG]

KARACHI: The stock market maintained its upward ride for the second successive session on Monday as it followed developments in domestic, regional and international arenas. The benchmark KSE-100 index again rose past the 45,000-point mark.

Encouraging current account data, which showed a contraction of 75% in deficit that stood at just $50 million in February 2021, triggered a buying spree.

Taking cue from stability in international crude oil prices, market participants made new investment in exploration and production stocks, which aided the uptrend.

Moreover, investors welcomed the decision by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) to maintain status quo in the monetary policy for the next two months.

At close, the benchmark KSE-100 index recorded an increase of 506.02 points, or 1.13%, to settle at 45,407.33 points.

Arif Habib Limited, in its report, stated that the market went down by 165 points earlier in the session, which was the result of a mild selling pressure across the board. “A short rollover week and an outstanding amount of Rs38.8b at the start of the week caused some jitters,” it said.

However, the reversal in energy chain stocks (exploration and production, refinery, oil and gas marketing and power) caused rebound in the KSE-100 index with a total increase of 564 points.

The report added that expectations about resolution of the gas-related circular debt issue helped the energy chain to recover lost ground.

Among major contributors, Oil and Gas Development Company, Pakistan Petroleum and Hascol Petroleum hit their upper circuits during the session, whereas Pakistan State Oil and Hubco also contributed to the positivity. Similarly, refinery sector stocks performed well.

Sectors contributing to the performance included exploration and production (+236 points), oil and gas marketing (+88 points), technology (+78 points), power (+44 points) and fertiliser (+43 points).

Individually, stocks that contributed positively to the index included Oil and Gas Development Company (+111 points), Pakistan Petroleum (+101 points), TRG Pakistan (+44 points), Pakistan State Oil (+44 points) and Hubco (+41 points).

Stocks that contributed negatively were Adamjee Insurance Company (-12 points), MCB Bank (-11 points), Bank Alfalah (-10 points), Pioneer Cement (-10 points) and NBP (-10 points).

Overall trading volumes dropped to 440.99 million shares compared with Friday’s tally of 484.6 million. The value of shares traded during the day was Rs22.1 billion.

Shares of 404 companies were traded. At the end of the day, 175 stocks closed higher, 213 declined and 16 remained unchanged.

Byco Petroleum was the volume leader with 68.7 million shares, gaining Rs0.1 to close at Rs11.14. It was followed by Pakistan Refinery with 40.9 million shares, gaining Rs1.26 to close at Rs26.57 and Hascol Petroleum with 38.6 million shares, gaining Re1 to close at Rs11.48.

Foreign institutional investors were net sellers of Rs324.9 million worth of shares during the trading session, according to data compiled by the National Clearing Company of Pakistan.

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2290808/market-watch-kse-100-continues-ascent-crosses-45000

 

[Last Monetarist]

https://www.dawn.com/news/1613970/pakistans-current-account-deficit-nosedives-76pc-to-50m-in-february

Pakistan’s current account deficit (CAD) for February declined 75 per cent year-on-year (YoY) and 76pc month-on-month (MoM) to $50 million, compared to a deficit of $197m in Feb 2020 and $210m last month.

This marks the third consecutive month the current account has recorded a deficit, after registering a surplus for five months in a row.

Overall, during the first eight months of FY21, the current account shows a surplus of $881m compared to a deficit of $2.74 billion in the corresponding period last year.

The narrowing of the deficit in February is largely attributable to continued strong growth in workers’ remittances and a sustained recovery in exports since November 2020, which more than offset the increase in imports due to domestic food shortages and recovering economic activity.

In February, the MoM improvement was due to a 45pc decline in primary income deficit, whereas the YoY improvement was attributable to 8pc and 24pc rise in total exports and remittances, respectively.

Total exports (goods and services) during the month jumped 3pc to $2.65bn compared to the $2.58bn logged in the previous month. Similarly, on a yearly basis, total exports witnessed an increase of 8pc in Feb 2021 against $2.46bn in Feb 2020.

In contrast, the combined imports of goods and services during the month under review grew 2pc to $5.184bn as opposed to $5.07bn recorded in January. On a yearly basis, overall imports of goods and services soared 17pc from $4.437bn in February last year.

This resulted in a trade deficit of $2.535bn in Feb 2021, up 1pc MoM and 28pc YoY.

Cumulatively, during 8MFY21, total exports stood at $19.87bn, shrinking 2pc YoY, whereas total imports grew 4pc YoY to $37.296bn, resulting in a trade deficit of $17.42bn, up 13pc YoY.

Workers' remittances by overseas Pakistanis registered a growth of 24pc YoY to $2.26bn during Feb 2021, while on a monthly basis they remained flat.

During the first eight months of FY 21, the continued healthy growth in inflows took the cumulative figure to a record level of $18.74bn, up 24pc YoY.

 

[Last Monetarist]

https://www.dawn.com/news/1614522/rupee-appreciates-38-paisa-against-dollar

The rupee appreciated 38 paisa against the US dollar in today's interbank session, closing the day at Rs155.01, against yesterday's closing of Rs155.39.

The rupee endured a relatively dull session after opening stronger, with very little intraday movement, trading in a range of 15 paisa, showing an intraday high of Rs155.13 and an intraday low of Rs154.98.

In the open market, the rupee was quoted at Rs155 per dollar.

Meanwhile, the currency gained 95 paisa against the British pound as the day's closing quote stood at Rs212.1, while the previous session closed at Rs213.05.

Similarly, the rupee strengthened by 83 paisa against the Euro, which closed at Rs182.99 at the interbank today.

On another note, within the money market, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) conducted an Open Market Operation in which it injected Rs.769 billion for 8 days at 7.04 percent.

The overnight repo rate towards close of the session was 7.10/7.20 percent, whereas the one-week rate was 7.03/7.08 per cent.

 

[Last Monetarist]

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2291688/rupee-recovers-to-over-one-year-high-at-15458

The Pakistani currency has maintained uptrend against the US dollar, as it hit a new over one-year high at Rs154.58 to the US dollar in the inter-bank market on Friday as supplies of the foreign currency remain high in the market compared to its demand.

The rupee has made a notable fresh gain on the day the World Bank approved $1.3 billion for Pakistan, including $600 million for Ehsaas programme and to reduce poverty in the country.

Besides, the country geared up to raise up to $1 billion from international market through launch of the Eurobond.

The rupee closed at Rs155.01 to the greenback on Thursday, according to Pakistan’s central bank.

With a fresh gain of Rs0.43 on Friday, the rupee has recovered 8.22% or Rs13.85 in the past seven-month to date since it hit all-time low of Rs168.43 on August 26, 2020.

“The rupee has maintained uptrend mainly on reports Pakistan has resumed International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) loan programme worth $6 billion the other day,” said Exchange Companies Association of Pakistan (ECAP) Chairman Malik Bostan while talking to The Express Tribune.

He said that revival of the IMF programme after remaining on hold for about a year since the Covid-19 outbreak in Pakistan in February 2020 has revived the confidence level of local and global business community in the domestic economy. Accordingly, the development helped rupee strengthen further.

The revival of IMF programme would also result in increase in supplies of the foreign currency, as the lending institution has approved release of third tranche worth $500 million to Pakistan soon.

He said the foreign currency supplies may remain high going forward since the World Bank and Asian Development Bank (ADB) both have announced to give $10-12 billion each over the next five years.

The rupee has maintained uptrend partly on the report that Pakistan’s foreign currency reserves further increased by $275 million last week to $13.29 billion.

The reserves may continue to grow with increasing inflows under the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) initiative Roshan Digital Account (RDA) and strong remittances sent home by overseas Pakistanis.

 

[Mamoon]

Yet another finance minister shown the door. 3 years on, the PTI government has no clue on how to improve the economy and they continue to humiliate themselves.

This latest champion Hammad Azhar will also prove to be a spectacular failure and will be booted out soon with PTI supporters praising his performance before clutching at straws to defend/justify his sacking.

 

[saeedhk]

Yet another finance minister shown the door. 3 years on, the PTI government has no clue on how to improve the economy and they continue to humiliate themselves.

This latest champion Hammad Azhar will also prove to be a spectacular failure and will be booted out soon with PTI supporters praising his performance before clutching at straws to defend/justify his sacking.

Now, their mantra is that Imran is quick at finding out who is not good at their job. This is the reason why he keeps changing advisers and ministers.

 

[marlonbrowndo]

I remember when I moved to Canada for my first year, a dollar was less than a 100. Recently we sent around 6000 CAD so I could pay off my final semester tuition fee and had to send around a million pkr. Absolutely crazy especially for families like mine that are upper middle class or below. This isn’t counting all the money for living expenses etc because I’ve been in Karachi since March 2020. This is just the tuition fee of one semester

 

[Bewal Express]

I remember when I moved to Canada for my first year, a dollar was less than a 100. Recently we sent around 6000 CAD so I could pay off my final semester tuition fee and had to send around a million pkr. Absolutely crazy especially for families like mine that are upper middle class or below. This isn’t counting all the money for living expenses etc because I’ve been in Karachi since March 2020. This is just the tuition fee of one semester

Quite simply the country has and is still living beyond is means. Our exports are around 24bn and imports are around 60bn. We need Dollars, so we offer more and more Rps until equilibrium is reached. The fundamentals take years to get right and i would go as far as to say that the damage done cannot be corrected unless we find new and innovative ways. The overvalued exchange kept Rp too high and destroyed what little industry we had left.

 

[Bigboii]

You want to improve economy? simply do thsi

CUT RED TAPE

corruption will come down on its own and economy will pick up

 

[Bigboii]

- Ob secure tax code
- obscure laws
- Who benefits from this - bureaucracy who end up doing corruption without adding any value to the system
- Crazy high tariffs making it hard for businesses to take place (just look at the car industry)

- KEEP YOUR LAWS SHORT AND SWEET and easy to understand for people doing business
- Low taxes (with high taxes most won't pay it by bypassing it by paying of the bureaucrats you keep it low at the very least that money stays with the business who'll make more jobs with it than a bureaucrat would do with corruption)

 

[Last Monetarist]

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2292412/world-bank-paints-bleak-picture-of-economy

The World Bank does not see a speedy economic turnaround in Pakistan, projecting a mere 1.3% growth rate with public debt peaking a whopping 94% size of the nation’s economy in the current fiscal year.

“Pakistan’s exposure to debt-related shocks will remain elevated,” the WB said in its annual flagship South Asia Economic Focus report released on Tuesday.

Prime Minister Imran Khan had promised to cut the public debt on back of doubling the tax revenues – the two goals he has failed to achieve despite changing five Federal Board of Revenue chairmen and three finance ministers.

The global lender has said that the country’s economic recovery remains fragile and predicted a rise in poverty too. The report came a day after Prime Minister Imran Khan showed the door to his second finance minister, Dr Abdul Hafeez Shaikh.

The Washington-based lender has revised upwards its economic growth forecast to 1.3% for this fiscal year, which is still less than half of around 3% that the State Bank of Pakistan and the federal government have been predicting.

“I would not overstate the difference between the WB and the government’s projections of economic growth rate and debt-to-GDP ratio,” Hans Timmer, WB’s chief economist for the South Asia region said while responding to a question.

Timmer said that the trajectory was positive.

The WB has also forecast only 2% economic growth rate for the next fiscal year, which is almost half of what the government would aim at in its fourth year in power.

The output growth is expected to recover gradually over the medium-term, averaging 2.2% over fiscal year 2020-21 and 2022-23, mostly due to contributions from private consumption, according to the report.

It said sectors that employ the poorest, such as agriculture, are expected to remain weak, and therefore poverty is likely to remain high.

The WB projected 9% inflation rate in Pakistan for this fiscal year. It also stated that it could slow down to 7% in the next fiscal year.

As fiscal consolidation efforts are expected to resume, the deficit is projected to remain elevated at 8.3% of GDP in this fiscal year partly due to the settlement of arrears in the power sector. The government told the cabinet last month that the budget deficit would remain within the target of 7.1% of the GDP.

For the next fiscal year, the WB has projected the budget deficit at 7.7% of the GDP, which too is not sustainable.

“Still, public debt will remain elevated in the medium-term, as will Pakistan’s exposure to debt-related shocks,” according to the WB. The lender has projected the debt at 93.9% of the GDP or Rs43 trillion, forecasting it to increase to 94.4% in the next fiscal year.

The public debt was 88% of the GDP in the last fiscal year as compared to 72.5% when the PTI came to power in July 2018.

The WB said that the current account deficit (CAD) was projected to narrow to 0.8% of the GDP in this fiscal year, as a wider trade deficit is more than offset by stronger inflow of remittances. However, the CAD was expected to increase over the medium-term, it added.

The WB said that exports would further dip in this fiscal year but are projected to grow from next fiscal year, as external conditions become more conducive and tariff reforms gain traction. But imports are also expected to increase in line with stronger domestic activity and higher oil prices.

Pakistan’s economy was severely impacted by the Covid-19 shock in the last fiscal year, leading to an increase in poverty. With the lifting of lockdown measures, the economy is showing signs of a fragile recovery, the WB said.

The report also confirms what is already in public knowledge – a poor vaccination campaign in Pakistan.

As of March 23, Pakistan had vaccinated only 304,000 people, which was just 0.1% of the population and the date for vaccinating 70% of the eligible population was “unknown”, the WB said.

It said that except for Afghanistan and Pakistan, South Asian countries have significantly lower than average fatality-to-case ratios. Both the countries have so far vaccinated only 0.1% of the population and the date to reach out to 70% is unknown in both the cases.

Surge in Covid-19 cases as of end-March in India, Bangladesh and Pakistan may require continued restrictions, it added.

The poorer income groups in India, Bangladesh and Pakistan suffer a greater fall in per capita consumption than the richer income groups do due to Covid-19. The income gap between the poorest 90% of the population and the richest 10% widened even further in India and Pakistan because of Covid-19, it added.

The poverty incidence is estimated to have increased in the last fiscal year while using the international poverty line of $1.9 per day, with more than two million people falling below this poverty line. Moreover, 40% of households suffered from moderate to severe food insecurity, the WB said.

 

[OMB]

Inflation clocks in at 9.1%

Inflation jumped to over nine per cent in March – the highest rate in as many months – due to surge in prices of food and electricity, particularly in the rural areas of the country, the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) reported on Thursday.

The PBS recorded 9.1% inflation rate three days after Prime Minister Imran Khan sacked Finance Minister Dr Abdul Hafeez Shaikh on charges of not controlling inflation, although the real reason was the central bank’s autonomy.

The over 9% inflation rate was in line with the expectations of the Ministry of Finance.

The PBS stated that electricity rates were 31.5% higher than a year ago and almost all kitchen items recorded a double-digit rise in prices, including wheat, sugar, and wheat flour.

The prices of eggs were 64% higher than a year ago despite moderate weather across the country.

In March, the wheat prices were 35% higher, followed by 24% average increase in prices of sugar, 19% wheat flour, 20% pulses, and 17% vegetable ghee, according to the PBS.

In January 2021, the inflation reading had slipped to 5.7%, which led to congratulatory tweets from Premier Imran and Planning Minister Asad Umar. The prime minister said that the Consumer Price Index and core inflation were “both now lower than when our government was formed”.

The PBS reported that there was a significant increase in inflation in rural areas as compared to the cities. The inflation rate in urban areas slightly increased to 8.7% in March but in rural areas, the inflation rate increased from 8.8% to 9.5%.

Food inflation also rose more in rural areas than in the urban centres. In cities, it increased from 10.3% to 11.5%, according to the PBS while in rural areas, it jumped from 9.1% to 11.1% -a surge of 2% within a month.

Core inflation – calculated by excluding food and energy items – slightly decelerated to 6.3% in urban areas in March, the PBS said.

The State Bank of Pakistan has been targeting the headline inflation to set its policy rate. In the last monetary policy statement, the central bank indicated no change in the policy rate.

Under the new SBP Amendment Bill 2021, the central bank wants to pursue price stability as its primary objective but there is no definition of price stability in the proposed law nor are any punitive measures suggested in case of failing to achieve the goal.

The inflation index comprises 12 major groups with food and non-alcoholic beverages having maximum weight of 34.6% in the basket. The food group saw a price increase of 11.6% in March over a year ago. Within the food group, prices of non-perishable food items rose 17% on an annualised basis.

The double-digit increase in prices suggested that it was not easier for the middle and low-income groups to manage the kitchen with limited resources. However, the perishable food items recorded a price reduction of over 17%, the PBS said.

The inflation rate for the housing, water, electricity, gas and fuel group - having one-fourth weight in the basket - was 8.8% last month.

The PBS bulletin revealed that the government had increased electricity tariff by 31.5% last month on an annualised basis. The cost of footwear also shot up nearly 16.2% last month as compared to the same period previous year.

The average inflation rate for July-March period of the current fiscal year came in at 8.34%, according to the PBS.

The World Bank has projected 9% inflation rate for Pakistan this year, which it said could slow down to 7% in the next financial year.

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2292843/inflation-clocks-in-at-91

 

[hoshiarpurexpress]

Inflation has increased more in rural areas as compared to urban ones looking at the above figures. That is very odd. Normally in the rural areas cost of living, food etc is less compared to cities, as in cities there is more demand and more people are willing to pay relatively higher prices.
What is the reason for this strange phenomenon ?

 

[Napa]

Inflation has increased more in rural areas as compared to urban ones looking at the above figures. That is very odd. Normally in the rural areas cost of living, food etc is less compared to cities, as in cities there is more demand and more people are willing to pay relatively higher prices.
What is the reason for this strange phenomenon ?

While it is true that the cost of living in urban areas is more than rural areas, inflation measures the change rather than the level. So even though urban areas have lower inflation, their cost of living is still higher than rural areas because it was much higher to start with.

Inflation in rural areas is probably higher than inflation in urban areas because food in rural areas is a larger fraction of the consumer consumption basket used to measure the consumer price index.

Inflation leads to a redistribution of income and wealth. If the sellers experience a greater increase in price relative to their costs, they gain. So inflation can actually make some wealthier. It appears that the poor (for whom food is a large fraction of expenses) are getting poorer as their wages are not keeping up.

 

[Vegitto1]

The reason why everyday items are expensive is because their production is controlled by MNAs and MPAs, majority belonging to PPP and PMLN - as is their distribution.

It is no secret as to who owns majority of the petrol pumps in Pakistan and how licences are obtained.

These people are hoarding stock to drive the price up to discredit the government and unfortunately Imran Khan, so far, has been unsuccessful to break this monopoly. The Lohar Courts and Bhutto Courts are partly to blame, granting stay to the criminals.

 

[Poseidon]

what's the clear picture of Pakistan's economy right now ?

i am confused, cant understand who to believe, thre are conflicting stories, some part of media says its going good, rupee getting stronger and what not, but some parts of media says its out of control, and govt is doing nothing regarding inflation situation etc etc.

some people quoting bloomberg and some people quoting indian media expert, mostly are saying we are heading to bankruptcy.

so what are ppers views about this ?

 

[emranabbas]

Rupee has gone Weak since imran's government

 

[SpiritOf1903]

It failed to learn from 1965 and until Punjab stood being the centre of the country, it will never prosper. KP and Balochistan alone if given autonomy would usurp the rest of the country alone.

Pakistanis suffer an identity crisis and that's underpinning everything

 

[Buffet]

You can look at the facts yourself rather than taking opinions or reading media reports. GDP per capita trendline gives you a long-term trend. Also, you can compare it with similar situated countries.



Here, Pakistan per capita is $12xx when compared to BD at $18xx and India at $20xx. But Pakistan recently had a huge devaluation of their currency so you can look at per capita on a PPP basis which captures the situation better.

Per Capita PPP



.

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=PK-IN-BD

 

[Buffet]

If you look at the trendline of PPP,

Bangladesh increase per capita by more than 5-7 times in the last 30 years. The same equation for India.

Pakistan increased per capita by 2-3 times in the same period.

Absolute basis, Pakistan did improve, but not at the same pace as similarly situated countries. Hopefully, growth picks up and the country can grow at 6-8% for decades. That's the quickest way to raise the living standards and bring the population out of poverty. I have no doubt that the situation in the world, including Pakistan, will keep getting better. The Sooner we do it better for the worldwide population.

 

[Buffet]

i am confused, cant understand who to believe, thre are conflicting stories, some part of media says its going good, rupee getting stronger and what not, but some parts of media says its out of control, and govt is doing nothing regarding inflation situation etc etc.

some people quoting bloomberg and some people quoting indian media expert, mostly are saying we are heading to bankruptcy.

so what are ppers views about this ?

I don't think it is headed for bankruptcy, but the situation is poor in forex reserve. To give you a relative idea,

China has 3.3 Trillion forex reserves.
India has 580 Billion forex reserves.
BD has 43 Billion of forex reserve.
Pakistan has 13 Billion forex reserves and it is mostly loans. That's why you see news about UAE/China giving 1B here and there to help Pakistan. Then IMF comes up with a 1-3B amount with conditions.

Pakistan was able to raise 2.5B a few days ago by issuing international bonds but had to pay high interest rates. Low forex reserve has been causing problems when settling foreign trades and Pakistan depends on imports on many things.

Eventually, the country needs to produce a lot more, spend mostly on productive things, and grow a lot more to not get into trouble. Clearly, the potential is there, it's a question of having the right policies. Since it takes many years to show the results of policies, most of the time short sighted decisions are taken in many countries. I don't know the exact steps taken by the current government, but it won't be possible to see the result of policies in just 1-2 years.

Also, there is a big elephant in the room when it comes to Pakistan so it may be hard for the government to simply make policies prioritizing long-term economic growth.

 

[Bigboii]

While it is true that the cost of living in urban areas is more than rural areas, inflation measures the change rather than the level. So even though urban areas have lower inflation, their cost of living is still higher than rural areas because it was much higher to start with.

Inflation in rural areas is probably higher than inflation in urban areas because food in rural areas is a larger fraction of the consumer consumption basket used to measure the consumer price index.

Inflation leads to a redistribution of income and wealth. If the sellers experience a greater increase in price relative to their costs, they gain. So inflation can actually make some wealthier. It appears that the poor (for whom food is a large fraction of expenses) are getting poorer as their wages are not keeping up.

Yep food is something that I feel is hurting the poor more

I was watching a documentary about the poverty in Pakistan on top of whatever interaction I had with poor people of Pak

I am an OP.so take it with a grain of salt..

Thier "slums" or low income duellings aren't all that bad they're actually really good for the income/economic level Pak finds itself in (except for the gypsies they're the ones with truly horrific housing)

They look decent similar to the kind of low income/slum housing you'd see in a middle income country

So on the outer levels it's not that bad for the poor

But what's hurting the poor is expensive food and electricity

This is what's causing the economic depression for the poor but if you look at it from the outside from the housing/living standards of TV,phone, furniture you'd likely think this is another middle income country definitely not representing the Macro situation of Pak economy rn

My fear is if this inflating of both these commodities continues (making up an increasingly large % of thier budget) Pak lower class will have to adjust it's living standards (in the future) to that of an actual poor income, lower middle income level unlike rn

 

[Slog]

There’s too many fault lines in the economy which successive governments have shown no willingness to fix nor have the interest or the push to make such decisions.

The only way out I see in the next 5 years is a positive black swan event (Pakistan striking gold on some natural resource; some geopolitical event where Pakistan becomes unbelievably and irreplaceably important etc)

 

[Bewal Express]

There’s too many fault lines in the economy which successive governments have shown no willingness to fix nor have the interest or the push to make such decisions.

The only way out I see in the next 5 years is a positive black swan event (Pakistan striking gold on some natural resource; some geopolitical event where Pakistan becomes unbelievably and irreplaceably important etc)

We have a long term problem of not having developed anything other than textiles, which which was badly damaged by high electricity prices and an uncompetitive currency.
The 1st thing to do is to build the Kalabagh Dam to secure our water supply and long term lowly priced electricity. I would a massive expansion of technical colleges dedicated to coding and modern technology. I would make them a part of every small market towns and use online delivery). But even these will take years to make any tangible impact.

 

[Mamoon]

Shaukat Tareen, the incoming Finance Minister, has ripped apart the economic policies of the messiah and his team.

In short, he asserted they have destroyed the economy.

It is interesting to note is that the cult (PTI and its supporters) have not ripped him and his forefathers apart with abuses, insults and character assassination.

In fact, they are eerily quiet on him. Why?

 

[UzmanBeast]

There’s too many fault lines in the economy which successive governments have shown no willingness to fix nor have the interest or the push to make such decisions.

The only way out I see in the next 5 years is a positive black swan event (Pakistan striking gold on some natural resource; some geopolitical event where Pakistan becomes unbelievably and irreplaceably important etc)

The likelihood of this happening is quite low, so resource management will become ever so important.

The lack of investment by previous governments, and to some extent, the lack of vision from the current government, has cost us great economic uncertainty.

We are already under immense debt to organizations and countries, so the signs are not looking too good.

 

[Bigboii]

why are they relying on just PPP guys as finance ministers?

New guy served under PPP admin, Sheikh served under PPP and probably other people too