What's new

How did Pakistan's economy perform during Imran Khan's era?

‘Don’t worry too much about inflation, Venezuela and other countries are worse than Pakistan,’ PM Imran.
 
saeedhk said:
‘Don’t worry too much about inflation, Venezuela and other countries are worse than Pakistan,’ PM Imran.
Click to expand...

At this point, he has no shame left. He is mentally unstable and he has no control over what comes out his mouth.

The failure of his government and his inability to live up to the expectations have taken a toll on his mental health. He has become a parody of himself.

The simple fact is that he has destroyed Pakistan.
 
Mamoon said:
Shaukat Tareen, the incoming Finance Minister, has ripped apart the economic policies of the messiah and his team.

In short, he asserted they have destroyed the economy.

It is interesting to note is that the cult (PTI and its supporters) have not ripped him and his forefathers apart with abuses, insults and character assassination.

In fact, they are eerily quiet on him. Why?
Click to expand...

Lol Shaukat Tareen had resigned from the PPP govt under protest against legendary PPP corruption
 
Mamoon said:
At this point, he has no shame left. He is mentally unstable and he has no control over what comes out his mouth.

The failure of his government and his inability to live up to the expectations have taken a toll on his mental health. He has become a parody of himself.

The simple fact is that he has destroyed Pakistan.
Click to expand...

Destroyed might be harsh, but I'd label it as "failure to improve the economic conditions, trade relations, and global image".

In a time of such economic uncertainty, I hear that IK decided against starting trade with India.

I believe we are in serious debt to China, and trade with India would have helped us at least recuperate some aspects of our economic activity. This debt will inch closer and closer, and the worst possible result will be the inability to pay it off.

Yes, there are political tensions, but considering that the economy is in shambles, I find the decision quite poor to say the least. Very rarely, if ever again, will India extend the hand of peaceful, complete trade relations. It is an opportunity gone begging in my view.
 
IMF growth rate for 2021 for other nearby countries for reference

India: 11.5%

China:8.1%

Bangladesh:5%

Iran:3.2%

Afghanistan:4%

Nepal:2.5%

With Pakistan 1.5% and our population growth rate is 2.0%.
 
KARACHI: Pakistan is set to become the world’s 23rd biggest economy by 2040 based on its predicted gross domestic product (GDP) rank which currently sits at 39th position, according to a United States intelligence report, which is issued every four years.

The assessment was included in this year’s Global Trends report by US National Intelligence Council (NIC), which is designed to help policymakers and citizens anticipate the economic, environmental, technological and demographic forces that are likely to shape the world through the next 20 years.

“Our intent is to help policymakers and citizens... prepare for an array of possible futures,” the authors wrote, noting they included input from diverse groups, from American students to African civil society activists.

"Global economic activity has been tilting toward Asia during the past 40 years, reflecting its higher rate of economic growth in comparison with the rest of the world, large population, and reduction in grinding poverty — a trend that almost certainly will continue through at least 2030 and perhaps through 2040," the report said.

It said that some of the most populous countries in Asia are positioned to be among the world’s largest economies by 2040, even as their per capita incomes lag behind that of advanced economies.

"Asia’s record growth during the past 40 years has resulted in a convergence between Asian standards of living and those of middle and even high-income economies," the document stated.

In 2020, China and other developing Asia countries contributed 18 per cent and 7 per cent respectively to global GDP. "If these trends continue, by 2040 developing countries in Asia are projected to account for approximately 35 per cent of global GDP, with India and China as the largest contributors at 29 per cent of global GDP," the report quoted Oxford Economics.

It said that the faster economic growth in Asia could lead to some of the most populous countries being among the world’s largest economies by 2040. "For example, faster economic growth in India — on track to be the most populous country by 2027 — could propel the country into the ranks of the world’s three largest economies," the report stated.

Similarly, it said, faster growth in Indonesia — the world’s fourth most populous country — could allow it to break into the ranks of the top 10 economies by 2040.

However, the reported added, their standards of living or per capita GDP are likely to remain well below those of advanced economies.

Pakistan likely to be below median age threshold in 2040

The report said that during the next two decades, most countries with large youth populations will be challenged to meet the basic needs of their populations, particularly in light of the social volatility often associated with youth bulges.

"In Sub-Saharan Africa, the median age is likely to rise only slightly to 22 by 2040, still well short of the median age threshold of 30 which is often associated with higher levels of human development."

It said that more than one-third of Sub-Saharan Africa’s population will be younger than 15 in 2040, compared with only 14 per cent of the population in East Asia.

"Other populous countries that most likely will still be below the median age threshold in 2040 are Afghanistan, Egypt, and Pakistan," the report added.

Climate change, rich-poor gap, conflict likely to grow

The report said that disease, the rich-poor gap, climate change and conflicts within and among nations will pose greater challenges in coming decades, with the Covid-19 pandemic already worsening some of those problems.

It said that the rivalry between China and a US-led coalition of Western nations likely will intensify, fuelled by military power shifts, demographics, technology and “hardening divisions over governance models."

Regional powers and non-state actors may exert greater influence, with the likely result of “a more conflict-prone and volatile geopolitical environment” and weakened international cooperation, it said.

Challenges like climate change, disease, financial crises and technological disruption “are likely to manifest more frequently and intensely in almost every region and country”, producing “widespread strains on states and societies as well as shocks that could be catastrophic”, the report said.

It said the coronavirus pandemic that has killed more than three million people marked the greatest “global disruption” since World War Two, with the consequences likely to last for years.

Covid-19, it said, exposed – and sometimes widened – disparities in healthcare, raised national debts, accelerated nationalism and political polarisation, deepened inequality, fuelled distrust in government and highlighted failed international cooperation.

In the process, it is slowing – and possibly reversing – progress in fighting poverty, disease and gender inequality.

Many problems caused by the pandemic are forecast by the report to grow by 2040.

“There is a certain set of trends that we’ve identified that seem to be accelerating or made more powerful because of the pandemic,” said an NIC official, speaking on condition of anonymity.

The report posed five scenarios for what the world might look like in 2040.

The most optimistic – a “renaissance of democracies” – found that democratic governments would prove “better able to foster scientific research and technological innovation, catalysing an economic boom,” enabling them to cope with domestic stresses and to stand up to international rivals.

The most pessimistic scenario – “tragedy and mobilisation” – posited how Covid-19 and global warming could devastate global food supplies, leading to riots in Philadelphia that kill “thousands of people”.

'Covid-19 has shaken long-held assumptions'

The report said that Covid-19 has shaken long-held assumptions about resilience and adaptation and created new uncertainties about the economy, governance, geopolitics, and technology.

The document finds cause for concern in virtually all aspects of life. "Advances in technology have the potential to address problems including climate change and disease, but can also provoke new tensions," the report added.

The report also warned of eroding trust in government and institutions and of a “trust gap” between the general public and the better informed and educated parts of the population.

https://tribune.com.pk/story/229392...iggest-economy-by-2040-us-intelligence-report
 
uberkoen said:
IMF growth rate for 2021 for other nearby countries for reference

India: 11.5%

China:8.1%

Bangladesh:5%

Iran:3.2%

Afghanistan:4%

Nepal:2.5%

With Pakistan 1.5% and our population growth rate is 2.0%.
Click to expand...

Well, also for reference India had a far bigger drop in 2020 than any of those countries, or any country globally for that matter.
 
MenInG said:
KARACHI: Pakistan is set to become the world’s 23rd biggest economy by 2040 based on its predicted gross domestic product (GDP) rank which currently sits at 39th position, according to a United States intelligence report, which is issued every four years.

The assessment was included in this year’s Global Trends report by US National Intelligence Council (NIC), which is designed to help policymakers and citizens anticipate the economic, environmental, technological and demographic forces that are likely to shape the world through the next 20 years.

“Our intent is to help policymakers and citizens... prepare for an array of possible futures,” the authors wrote, noting they included input from diverse groups, from American students to African civil society activists.

"Global economic activity has been tilting toward Asia during the past 40 years, reflecting its higher rate of economic growth in comparison with the rest of the world, large population, and reduction in grinding poverty — a trend that almost certainly will continue through at least 2030 and perhaps through 2040," the report said.

It said that some of the most populous countries in Asia are positioned to be among the world’s largest economies by 2040, even as their per capita incomes lag behind that of advanced economies.

"Asia’s record growth during the past 40 years has resulted in a convergence between Asian standards of living and those of middle and even high-income economies," the document stated.

In 2020, China and other developing Asia countries contributed 18 per cent and 7 per cent respectively to global GDP. "If these trends continue, by 2040 developing countries in Asia are projected to account for approximately 35 per cent of global GDP, with India and China as the largest contributors at 29 per cent of global GDP," the report quoted Oxford Economics.

It said that the faster economic growth in Asia could lead to some of the most populous countries being among the world’s largest economies by 2040. "For example, faster economic growth in India — on track to be the most populous country by 2027 — could propel the country into the ranks of the world’s three largest economies," the report stated.

Similarly, it said, faster growth in Indonesia — the world’s fourth most populous country — could allow it to break into the ranks of the top 10 economies by 2040.

However, the reported added, their standards of living or per capita GDP are likely to remain well below those of advanced economies.

Pakistan likely to be below median age threshold in 2040

The report said that during the next two decades, most countries with large youth populations will be challenged to meet the basic needs of their populations, particularly in light of the social volatility often associated with youth bulges.

"In Sub-Saharan Africa, the median age is likely to rise only slightly to 22 by 2040, still well short of the median age threshold of 30 which is often associated with higher levels of human development."

It said that more than one-third of Sub-Saharan Africa’s population will be younger than 15 in 2040, compared with only 14 per cent of the population in East Asia.

"Other populous countries that most likely will still be below the median age threshold in 2040 are Afghanistan, Egypt, and Pakistan," the report added.

Climate change, rich-poor gap, conflict likely to grow

The report said that disease, the rich-poor gap, climate change and conflicts within and among nations will pose greater challenges in coming decades, with the Covid-19 pandemic already worsening some of those problems.

It said that the rivalry between China and a US-led coalition of Western nations likely will intensify, fuelled by military power shifts, demographics, technology and “hardening divisions over governance models."

Regional powers and non-state actors may exert greater influence, with the likely result of “a more conflict-prone and volatile geopolitical environment” and weakened international cooperation, it said.

Challenges like climate change, disease, financial crises and technological disruption “are likely to manifest more frequently and intensely in almost every region and country”, producing “widespread strains on states and societies as well as shocks that could be catastrophic”, the report said.

It said the coronavirus pandemic that has killed more than three million people marked the greatest “global disruption” since World War Two, with the consequences likely to last for years.

Covid-19, it said, exposed – and sometimes widened – disparities in healthcare, raised national debts, accelerated nationalism and political polarisation, deepened inequality, fuelled distrust in government and highlighted failed international cooperation.

In the process, it is slowing – and possibly reversing – progress in fighting poverty, disease and gender inequality.

Many problems caused by the pandemic are forecast by the report to grow by 2040.

“There is a certain set of trends that we’ve identified that seem to be accelerating or made more powerful because of the pandemic,” said an NIC official, speaking on condition of anonymity.

The report posed five scenarios for what the world might look like in 2040.

The most optimistic – a “renaissance of democracies” – found that democratic governments would prove “better able to foster scientific research and technological innovation, catalysing an economic boom,” enabling them to cope with domestic stresses and to stand up to international rivals.

The most pessimistic scenario – “tragedy and mobilisation” – posited how Covid-19 and global warming could devastate global food supplies, leading to riots in Philadelphia that kill “thousands of people”.

'Covid-19 has shaken long-held assumptions'

The report said that Covid-19 has shaken long-held assumptions about resilience and adaptation and created new uncertainties about the economy, governance, geopolitics, and technology.

The document finds cause for concern in virtually all aspects of life. "Advances in technology have the potential to address problems including climate change and disease, but can also provoke new tensions," the report added.

The report also warned of eroding trust in government and institutions and of a “trust gap” between the general public and the better informed and educated parts of the population.

https://tribune.com.pk/story/229392...iggest-economy-by-2040-us-intelligence-report
Click to expand...

That would have zero impact on the average citizen because we have the fastest growing population in Asia after Afghanistan and one of the highest fertility rates in the world. In fact, the average Pakistani will become poorer and poorer because we are adding a whopping 4 million people to our population annually. Till we control our population, we cannot progress.
 
Yarn shortage pushing industries towards closure
Textile exporters say exports have dropped drastically , warn of massive layoffs

Textile exporters have lamented that the aggravating cotton yarn crisis due to its shortage has caused a drastic decline in exports, pushing industries on the verge of closure and sparking fears of layoffs of millions of workers.

At a joint press conference of various textile associations, Pakistan Apparel Forum Chairman Jawed Bilwani said, “The government has closed its eyes on the hoarding of cotton yarn and cartelisation, which can be dealt with as per law under the Price Control and Prevention of Profiteering and Hoarding Act 1977 and Competition Act of Pakistan 2010.”

The entire nation decried the sugar scandal but silence over the cotton yarn crisis faced by the value-added textile sector exporting goods worth Rs1,980 billion was incomprehensible, highlighted Bilwani.

Echoing Bilwani’s views, Pakistan Hosiery Manufacturers and Exporters Association Chairman South Zone Tariq Munir stated that it appeared that the government had given complete liberty to the spinning mills and yarn traders for creating monopoly and hoarding.

“The Price Control and Prevention of Profiteering and Hoarding Act 1977 is selfexplanatory, which also covers yarn, by suggesting legal action in case of violations,” Munir said.

“Internationally, prices of cotton and cotton yarn have decreased, however, in Pakistan the prices of cotton yarn are exorbitantly high,” said Pakistan Readymade Garments Manufacturers and Exporters Association Chief Coordinator Shaikh Shafiq.

Bilwani added that it seemed that some people in the government were playing a role contrary to the policies of Prime Minister Imran Khan to hurt exports and deal a blow to the foreign exchange earnings.

“It is a fact, which has also appeared in the media in the past several months, that textile exporters have been urging the government to allow duty-free import of cotton yarn,” Munir said.

Adviser to PM on Commerce and Investment Abdul Razak Dawood supported the exporters and regulatory duty was abolished, but customs duty was not removed due to resistance by some cabinet members, he said.

Complete remedy was not provided to the textile exporters, who again appealed to the government to allow import of cotton yarn from neighbouring India through the land route due to congestion of sea traffic and containers at ports.

The Economic Coordination Committee’s proposal to allow import of cotton yarn from India compelled the local spinners and cotton yarn traders to reduce prices of yarn, however, the cabinet deferred decision on the proposal, he said.
Click to expand...

Yes, let's not import cotton from India and let our entire country suffer. What a brilliant decision by the government. Laiken ghabrana nahi hai everything is just fine!
 
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2294936/foreign-exchange-sbp-reserves-rise-26b-to-161b

The foreign exchange reserves held by the central bank rose 19.1% on a weekly basis, according to data released by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Thursday.

On April 9, the foreign currency reserves held by the SBP were recorded at $16,106.4 million, up $2,579 million compared with $13,527.2 million in the previous week.

The central bank attributed the rise to the receipt of proceeds of $2.5 billion against the issuance of Eurobonds.

Pakistan had borrowed $2.5 billion through Eurobonds on March 30 by offering lucrative interest rates to lenders aimed at building the foreign exchange reserves.

Overall liquid foreign currency reserves held by the country, including net reserves held by banks other than the SBP, stood at $23,220.3 million. Net reserves held by banks amounted to $7,113.9 million.

Pakistan received the first loan tranche of $991.4 million from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on July 9, 2019, which helped bolster the reserves. In late December 2019, the IMF released the second loan tranche of around $454 million.

The reserves also jumped on account of $2.5 billion in inflows from China. In 2020, the SBP successfully made foreign debt repayment of over $1 billion on the maturity of Sukuk.

In December 2019, the foreign exchange reserves surpassed the $10 billion mark owing to inflows from multilateral lenders including $1.3 billion from the Asian Development Bank (ADB).
Click to expand...
 
uberkoen said:
Yes, let's not import cotton from India and let our entire country suffer. What a brilliant decision by the government. Laiken ghabrana nahi hai everything is just fine!
Click to expand...

The problem is a deeper one- we have crooked mafia using precious water to produce Sugar in areas traditionally cotton growing areas. We need buy cheap sugar from abroad and produce our own Cotton.
 
Bewal Express said:
The problem is a deeper one- we have crooked mafia using precious water to produce Sugar in areas traditionally cotton growing areas. We need buy cheap sugar from abroad and produce our own Cotton.
Click to expand...

What is IK doing on the privatisation front?
Cause at the end of the day crooks are doing this because of government involvement
 
Bigboii said:
What is IK doing on the privatisation front?
Cause at the end of the day crooks are doing this because of government involvement
Click to expand...

I dont know the current situation, I know the PSM had been paying billions in wages and wasnt operating and they made the staff redundant and i dont think they can find a buyer. PIA isnt in a state to be privatised but needs a couple of good years and should be privatised.
 
Bewal Express said:
The problem is a deeper one- we have crooked mafia using precious water to produce Sugar in areas traditionally cotton growing areas. We need buy cheap sugar from abroad and produce our own Cotton.
Click to expand...

Yes, the same mafia that was funding and financing Imran.
 
uberkoen said:
Yes, let's not import cotton from India and let our entire country suffer. What a brilliant decision by the government. Laiken ghabrana nahi hai everything is just fine!
Click to expand...

Who needs cotton and sugar when you have “ghairat”.
 
PM Imran Khan to announce mega development package of Rs446b for Sindh today: Fawad Chaudhry

ISLAMABAD: Prime Minister Imran Khan will visit Sukkur today (Friday) and announce a mega development package of Rs446 billion for Sindh, Federal Minister for Science and Technology Chaudhry Fawad Hussain said on Thursday.

In a tweet, the federal minister said that this amount will be in addition to the Rs1,100 billion of the Karachi package.

He said the next two years will be years of development as the PTI government is taking all possible steps to end the sense of deprivation among the people of Sindh.

Fawad, who has been given additional charge of the information ministry, also tweeted the statement in Sindhi.

Meanwhile, Leader of the Opposition in the Sindh Assembly Haleem Adil Shaikh has said PM Khan will unveil a mega development package for the people of Sindh which they were not given during the last 13 years.

He said the prime minister will also visit Karachi.

Shaikh said PM Khan will attend an event of the Kamyab Jawan programme and visit a cash centre of the Ehsaas Kafalat programme.

The PM is also likely to meet PTI and its ally Grand Democratic Alliance's (GDA) members in Sukkur.

Addressing a press conference at the IBA Sukkur, the PTI leader claimed that a new day will dawn for Sindh on Friday.

He said the people of Sindh who got nothing in 13 years of PPP rule.

He said the federal government wants to issue health cards, but the Sindh government is posing obstacles.

Shaikh said 70% of the people in the province drink contaminated water and suffer from waterborne diseases and some form of jaundice.

“Measles, AIDS, hepatitis and other diseases are also spreading fast in Sindh due to the callousness of the provincial government.”

https://www.geo.tv/latest/345600-pm...velopment-package-of-rs446-bn-for-sindh-fawad
 
SUKKUR: Prime Minister Imran Khan on Friday announced a massive Rs440 billion package for 14 under-developed districts of Sindh, saying the effects of the investment will be visible within a month.

His remarks came as he addressed a ceremony in connection with the government's flagship Kamyab Jawan initiative in Sukkur this afternoon.

Earlier, the premier arrived in the city on a day's trip and is also scheduled to visit Karachi where he will meet with top government and public representatives.

"Sindh has always been deprived of the basic facilities, while the underprivileged have had no rights," said the prime minister.

"If we can equip the youth with skills and education, we can turn them into an asset for the country," he added.

Referring to Covid-19 lockdowns, the prime minister said, "We didn't shut down the country following the Covid-19 outbreak, as was the case with several developed countries, and reaped the benefits".

Imran regretted that the Sindh government had cancelled the NOC for an island of Karachi's coast, saying the investment on the island could benefit the people of the province.

"I urge the Sindh government to review its decision so that the returns from the island could uplift Sindh's economic status."

"I represent every province of Pakistan; no part of the country is to witness less development than the other" he maintained.

Aimed at the socio-economic development of the districts, the package envisages the construction of Nai Gaj dam for the irrigation of 28,800 acres of land and the 306-kilometre long Sukkur-Hyderabad motorway.

Under the scheme, rehabilitation of 200,000 acres of land will provide livelihood opportunities for the people.

The package will also ensure gas supply to 160 villages and further provide 30,000 annual electricity connections. Improving power transmission to help reduce line losses and outages is also part of the scheme.

As part of the education reforms, the ratio of higher education will be brought to 52 per cent. Moreover 14 passport offices will also be upgraded under the package.

On Friday, Fawad Chaudhry said that the amount would be in addition to Rs1,100 billion of the Karachi package.

He also said that the next two years would be the years of development as the PTI government was taking all possible steps to end a sense of deprivation among the people of Sindh.

https://tribune.com.pk/story/229511...billion-package-for-sindh-during-sukkur-visit
 
Bewal Express said:
The same mafia funded everyone but only man has had the courage to take them on.
Click to expand...

If Imran had any credibility, he wouldn’t have associated himself with him and benefited from them in the first place.

He is a beneficiary of corruption.
 
Mamoon said:
If Imran had any credibility, he wouldn’t have associated himself with him and benefited from them in the first place.

He is a beneficiary of corruption.
Click to expand...

You are so simple thats its not even funny. You support the thugs that created the mafia and you annoyed that their little bubble of criminality has been disturbed. You need to be slightly more creative with your connivance with criminality.
 
Bewal Express said:
You are so simple thats its not even funny. You support the thugs that created the mafia and you annoyed that their little bubble of criminality has been disturbed. You need to be slightly more creative with your connivance with criminality.
Click to expand...

I will tell you what is funny - PTI supporters clutching at straws to justify Imran going to bed with all the mafias and using their funds to finance his election campaign.

Here is the dark reality that you are running away from - Imran is a beneficiary of corruption and Naya Pakistan’s foundations were laid on black money.

No wonder Naya Pakistan has been a disaster. The Almighty is clearly not happy to see the name Riyasat-e-Madinah associated with what is essentially a Riyasat-e-Corruption and Riyasat-e-Munafiqat.
 
Shaukat Tareen appointed as finance minister. Can all PTI supporters please let us know why the need to chop and change the minister of finance if our economy, as we are told, is doing so well? (@Syed1 [MENTION=1269]Bewal Express[/MENTION])

Secondly, isn’t this the same person whose policies were heavily criticized by IK himself? He served as finance minister in Gilani’s government. IK’s cabinet is starting to look a lot like a PPP cabinet.
 
Last edited:
uberkoen said:
Shaukat Tareen appointed as finance minister. Can all PTI supporters please let us know why the need to chop and change the minister of finance if our economy, as we are told, is doing so well? (@Syed1 [MENTION=1269]Bewal Express[/MENTION])

Secondly, isn’t this the same person whose policies were heavily criticized by IK himself? He served as finance minister in Gilani’s government. IK’s cabinet is starting to look a lot like a PPP cabinet.
Click to expand...

IK has always been a hard task master, perform or make way for someone else. Shaukat Tareen resigned from the PPP administration under protest over the corrupt rental power project deals
 
uberkoen said:
Shaukat Tareen appointed as finance minister. Can all PTI supporters please let us know why the need to chop and change the minister of finance if our economy, as we are told, is doing so well? (@Syed1 [MENTION=1269]Bewal Express[/MENTION])

Secondly, isn’t this the same person whose policies were heavily criticized by IK himself? He served as finance minister in Gilani’s government. IK’s cabinet is starting to look a lot like a PPP cabinet.
Click to expand...

If this is the best Pakistan can get then it's a sad state of affairs. The previous guy was seen slapping the back of PPP and having a nice chin wag with his loss. These career politicians are not true patriots
 
uberkoen said:
Shaukat Tareen appointed as finance minister. Can all PTI supporters please let us know why the need to chop and change the minister of finance if our economy, as we are told, is doing so well? (@Syed1 [MENTION=1269]Bewal Express[/MENTION])

Secondly, isn’t this the same person whose policies were heavily criticized by IK himself? He served as finance minister in Gilani’s government. IK’s cabinet is starting to look a lot like a PPP cabinet.
Click to expand...

I don't know much about him. I like Hammed Azhar but maybe the IMF have their own ideas. Both Sheikh and this guy are probably IMF approved guys.
 
Apparently IK had been chasing Shaukat Tareen for the last two years and he was his first choice once Asad Umar resigned even before Hafeez Sheikh joined but he kept refusing. He has finally accepted. Hamad Azhar was apparently the interim finance minister and its not like he is being sacked or anything, a permanent choice has now been found.

The reasoning behind these moves apparently is this ie IK is adopting a horses for courses approach. Hafeez Sheikhs job was to narrow the gap bw exports, imports as much as possible, tighten the belt and screws to the point where the CAD is gone.

Now that has been achieved, IK wants to bring on Shaukat Tareen who has been a very vocal exponent of having an export oriented growth model. Let's see what jadu ki chari does Mr Shaukat Tareen have
 
Savak said:
Apparently IK had been chasing Shaukat Tareen for the last two years and he was his first choice once Asad Umar resigned even before Hafeez Sheikh joined but he kept refusing. He has finally accepted. Hamad Azhar was apparently the interim finance minister and its not like he is being sacked or anything, a permanent choice has now been found.

The reasoning behind these moves apparently is this ie IK is adopting a horses for courses approach. Hafeez Sheikhs job was to narrow the gap bw exports, imports as much as possible, tighten the belt and screws to the point where the CAD is gone.

Now that has been achieved, IK wants to bring on Shaukat Tareen who has been a very vocal exponent of having an export oriented growth model. Let's see what jadu ki chari does Mr Shaukat Tareen have
Click to expand...

Some people say he shares Ishaq Dar's ideas and wants a growth of 6/7% as quick as possible.

I hope we won't go back to short term solutions and that the current IMF loan will be the last.
 
SBP chairman himself said government has not used state bank to borrow money for past 2 1/2 years and is using banks to raise money.

Tareen is here to renegotiate with the IMF. The electricity price hike is not acceptable and will prove to be counter productive. Finance ministry hard work is mostly covered, Hammad Azhar has just been moved from a comfy sofa to a steel chair with nails (power ministry) which will demand everything he has to offer.

Our economy is very stable at the moment, furthermore the fundamentals are on point so we are able to absorb any untoward unexpected shock. Our import cover is at almost 4 months. Our rupee has stabilized at market value, and will fluctuate up and down in a natural manner to mitigate any unbalance like a rubber band. (for example in case of high imports to a point where current account comes under stress due to increase demand of dollar, rupee will move upward resulting in expensive and lesser imports and vice versa)

Our forward swap liabilities as of now stands around 25% to our overall reserves, which were 90% in 2018. IMF programme is necessary, given our interest and principal maturing debt.

GDP growth will cross 4% next year and 5-6% naturally in FY2023. This year so far it's above expectation. Increase the power tariff by IMF recommendation will kill this growth so to renegotiate is our only option. If Tareen fails to renegotiate he will loose the chair.
 
Pakistan's Forex reserves jump to $23.22bn

The Central Bank's foreign exchange reserves, that closed above US$16 billion are now on the highest level since July 2017.

APP 15 Apr 2021

ISLAMABAD: The foreign exchange reserves held by the country jumped by $2.54 billion to $23.22 billion as compared to $20.68 billion on weekly basis, according to data released by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Thursday.

On April 09, the foreign currency reserves held by the SBP were recorded at $16.106 billion compared with $13.527 billion in the previous week.

According to the central bank, the increase came on the back of official inflows and the proceeds of government's $2.5 billion Euro Bond issuance.

The Central Bank's foreign exchange reserves, that closed above US$16 billion are now on the highest level since July 2017.

Overall, liquid foreign currency reserves held by the country, including net reserves held by banks other than the SBP, stood at $23.22 billion. Net reserves held by banks amounted to $7.114 billion.

Link: https://www.brecorder.com/news/40084752/pakistans-forex-reserves-jump-to-2322bn
 
uberkoen said:
Shaukat Tareen appointed as finance minister. Can all PTI supporters please let us know why the need to chop and change the minister of finance if our economy, as we are told, is doing so well? (@Syed1 [MENTION=1269]Bewal Express[/MENTION])
Click to expand...

Hafeez Sheikh lost the Islamabad Senate race so he had to step down.

Dunya News sources say that Hammad Azhar was a temporary appointment as Finance Minister after Hafeez Shaikh’s exit.
Click to expand...

uberkoen said:
Secondly, isn’t this the same person whose policies were heavily criticized by IK himself?
Click to expand...

IK is a politician. He was not going to say that PPP took over in the midst of a global recession, and when oil prices were at an all time high, and therefore their performance was not as bad as it seemed.

uberkoen said:
He served as finance minister in Gilani’s government. IK’s cabinet is starting to look a lot like a PPP cabinet.
Click to expand...

To be a minister you need to be part of parliament, so as PTI has people from all other parties, its natural for the cabinet to reflect that. IK tried the acha bacha way to get power. Awam gave him 0 seats in 1997 and only one 1 in 2002. He needed these lotas.
 
Gharib Aadmi said:
Hafeez Sheikh lost the Islamabad Senate race so he had to step down.





IK is a politician. He was not going to say that PPP took over in the midst of a global recession, and when oil prices were at an all time high, and therefore their performance was not as bad as it seemed.



To be a minister you need to be part of parliament, so as PTI has people from all other parties, its natural for the cabinet to reflect that. IK tried the acha bacha way to get power. Awam gave him 0 seats in 1997 and only one 1 in 2002. He needed these lotas.
Click to expand...

Smart people adapt to the system and play within the rules of the system. IK had to smell the coffee along the way that if he wants to come to power, he would need to mix his idealism with some ground realities.

I do personally feel he's been too soft in power and should have made full use of the opportunity he got by aggressively going after the opposition and taking the corrupt, opposition infiltrated courts and institutions out of the equation

If the nation saw he was doing this, they would gladly have accepted all the hardships that they came their way
 
Savak said:
Smart people adapt to the system and play within the rules of the system. IK had to smell the coffee along the way that if he wants to come to power, he would need to mix his idealism with some ground realities.

I do personally feel he's been too soft in power and should have made full use of the opportunity he got by aggressively going after the opposition and taking the corrupt, opposition infiltrated courts and institutions out of the equation

If the nation saw he was doing this, they would gladly have accepted all the hardships that they came their way
Click to expand...

I disagree. They would cry victimisation which would strengthen their asylum seeking case. Following that, when the coast is clear they can waltz back into Pakistan as if nothing happened. At least this way the system can be shown to be extremely flawed
 
https://www.dawn.com/news/1619247/foreign-direct-investment-falls-by-35pc-in-nine-months

Foreign direct investment (FDI) has kept falling during the current fiscal as it declined by 35 per cent at the end of the third quarter, reflecting no improvement in the situation for investors.

According to State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) data issued on Monday, the FDI fell by 35.1pc to $1.395 billion during July-March FY21 compared to $2.15bn in the same period of last fiscal.

The inflow in March was just $167.6 million compared to $278.7m in the same month of last year — a decline of 40pc.

However, as the inflow in March this year slightly improved compared to February when the inflow was $155m, the FDI trend shows that the overall trend is on the decline.

The FDI had dropped by 30pc during the first eight months of the current fiscal, and due to the 40pc decline recorded last month it has now fallen by 35pc after nine months.

However, the situation on external front is much better as the current account of eight months of FY21 is surplus with $881m and the SBP reserves have reached a four-year high.

Exports have been increasing as more exports orders are in line due to serious pandemic situation in India and Bangladesh. The increased export proceeds and lower consumption of foreign exchange in the domestic market raised the value of Pakistani rupee against US dollar as it has appreciated by 9pc since August 2020.

While the poor inflows of FDI have continued for more than five years, the government remained unable to offer anything new to attract foreign investors this year, mainly due to the coronavirus pandemic.

With the initiation of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, the inflows from China had increased manifolds in recent years despite the declining trend seen in inflows from other countries.

The latest data shows that inflow from China during the nine months of this fiscal was $650.8m, constituting 46pc of the total inflows so far. China has been the largest investor in Pakistan for several years, but the inflow declined this year. In the same period of last fiscal, the inflow from China was $859.3m; the decline this year was 24pc.

The inflow from Hong Kong also declined to $105.7m compared to $135m in the same period of last fiscal. The inflows from the United Kingdom improved to $105m compared to $90.4m. The FDI from the United States also increased to $88m compared to $65m of last fiscal.

The government has been trying to attract foreign investment in the construction sector and announced plans to develop two new cities in Sindh and Punjab. The Sindh government is not ready to allow the Centre to use its two islands for the mega projects.

The federal government believes that the new cities would attract foreign investors, including overseas Pakistanis, to invest in the country.

The government also made efforts to attract foreign investments through Roshan digital accounts and by offering domestic bonds (Pakistan Investment Bonds and treasury bills) with a very high return like 10 per cent. The two products started attracting foreign investment, but the size of investment is still lower than what was needed to avoid loans from International Monetary Fund, World Bank and other lenders.
Click to expand...
 
https://www.dawn.com/news/1621555/inflation-in-double-digits-again-after-12-months

April saw a double-digit increase in prices of consumer items as inflation edged up to 11.1 per cent from 9.1pc in March, showed data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics on Saturday.

Inflation entered a double-digit figure after a gap of 12 months though it fell to 5.7pc in January 2021. It is mainly driven by double-digit growth in food inflation in both urban and rural areas.

On a month-on-month basis, inflation increased by 1pc mainly due to an increase in prices of chicken, cooking oil/ghee, sugar, wheat, and pulses for the end consumers. At the same time, non-food inflation has steadily been on the rise for the past few months due to higher energy prices.

The average CPI (Consumer Price Index) in 10 months — between July and April — eased from 11.22pc last year to 8.62pc this year. The month of April coupled with start of fasting in the middle of the month noted an accelerated growth in prices of vegetables, fruit, chicken and oil especially in the province of Punjab, followed by Sindh, Balochistan, Islamabad and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

At the beginning of the current fiscal year, inflation was recorded at 9.3pc in July, easing down to 8.2pc in August before rebounding to 9pc in September. From September, inflation went on a downward trajectory, giving some relief to the end consumers.

However, it rebounded in February. A few consumer items as well as energy prices pushed up inflation in March again, with the result that food inflation entered double digits in both urban and rural areas. There are food items prices of which are still on an upward trajectory.

Higher food prices especially with the start of Ramazan pulled up inflation as prices of food group rose 15.7pc year-on-year basis and 2.7pc month-on-month basis in April in urban areas. The situation is almost the same in rural areas where prices of food group have risen to 14.1pc year-on-year basis and 0.9pc month-on-month basis in April.

The month-on-month increase indicates that prices of essential food items will see a further rise next month, as the weekly prices also show an upward movement that will drag monthly inflation.

The government has imported wheat and sugar to bridge shortfalls and improve supplies in the market. Between July and March, the government imported 3.612 m tonnes of wheat this year against zero import of last year.

Similarly, the import of sugar stood at 279,529 tonnes during the nine months of current fiscal year as against 4,751 tonnes over the corresponding period of last year, showing an increase of 5,783pc.

With the arrival of potatoes and onions in the domestic market, their prices posted a decline during the previous month under review. However, prices of potatoes, onions, tomatoes and fruits skyrocketed with the start of Ramazan.

In urban areas, food items that saw a jump in prices in April from the previous month included tomatoes 67.70pc, vegetables 29.55pc, fruits 22.32pc, potatoes 15.81pc, chicken 7.31pc, cooking oil 2.99pc, vegetable ghee 2.01pc, meat 1.64pc, condiments and spices 1.54pc, and gram whole 1.25pc.

The items whose prices declined in urban areas were wheat 9.14pc, onions 8.33pc, wheat flour 1.94pc, sugar 1.83pc and pulse moong 1.59pc.

In rural areas, tomatoes prices are higher by 55.54pc, fruits 25.20pc, vegetables 21.71pc, potatoes 12.15pc, cooking oil 2.25pc, vegetable ghee 1.83pc, meat 1.59pc and mustard oil 1.15pc. However, the prices of onions decreased by 14.47pc, wheat 10.23pc, sugar 3.13pc, pulse masoor 2.57pc, besan 2.24pc, pulse moong 1.68pc, wheat flour 1.56pc and chicken 1.12pc.

Non-food inflation in urban centres was recorded at 8.2pc year-on-year increase and 0.5pc month-on-month increase, whereas in rural areas it rose by 8.9pc and 0.3pc, respectively. The month-on-month increase in non-food inflation indicates a further increase in coming months.

The urban CPI covers 35 cities and 356 items, while the rural one tracks 27 centres and 244 products. The former grew by 11pc year-on-year in April whereas the latter jumped by 11.3pc.

Core inflation in urban areas was recorded at 7pc in April, compared to 6.3pc in the previous month. In rural areas, it edges up to 7.7pc in April from 7.3pc in the previous month.

The State Bank of Pakistan determines the key policy rate, currently at 7pc, based on the core inflation rate. The central bank has reduced the rate by a cumulative 625 basis points since March 17 to combat uncertainty amid the coronavirus pandemic.

Average inflation measured by the Sensitive Price Index surged to 21.3pc in April from 18.7pc during the previous month. On month-on-month basis, it increased by 2.6pc in April.

The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) was slightly up from the previous month’s 14.6pc to 16.6pc in April, showing month-on-month increase of 2pc.
Click to expand...
 
Savak said:
Smart people adapt to the system and play within the rules of the system. IK had to smell the coffee along the way that if he wants to come to power, he would need to mix his idealism with some ground realities.

I do personally feel he's been too soft in power and should have made full use of the opportunity he got by aggressively going after the opposition and taking the corrupt, opposition infiltrated courts and institutions out of the equation

If the nation saw he was doing this, they would gladly have accepted all the hardships that they came their way
Click to expand...


They would never let him succeed. They would have cried abuse of power and gathered jaahil support from villages.

Fact is Pakistan needs a proper cleansing of crooks. IK is doing his best but you still have deep rooted corruption.
 
Badsha said:
They would never let him succeed. They would have cried abuse of power and gathered jaahil support from villages.

Fact is Pakistan needs a proper cleansing of crooks. IK is doing his best but you still have deep rooted corruption.
Click to expand...

Correct, corruption is so deep rooted I feel imran will need another full term to bring the crooks to justice, issue is will the pakistan awaam give imran the mandate for another term with a majority of power.
 
Pakistan’s trade deficit widened to $23.8 billion and exceeded the annual target by $4.1 billion in 10 months of the current fiscal year, posing a challenge to the government that wanted to kick-start the economy but was not getting help from the export sector.

During the July-April period of the current fiscal year, imports exceeded exports by $23.8 billion, reported the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) on Wednesday.

For the current fiscal year, the government had set the trade deficit target at $19.7 billion, which was busted in just 10 months because of no major improvement in exports.

The deficit was higher by $3.9 billion or 21.6% over the same period of previous year.

Exports increased to $20.9 billion in July-April FY21 compared to $18.4 billion in the same period of last year, according to the national data collecting agency. There was an increase of 13.5% or $2.5 billion in exports in 10 months, but it was not sufficient to bridge the yawning gap created by imports.

Imports during the July-April period increased 17.7% to $44.7 billion, higher by $6.7 billion. The government had set the annual imports target at $42.4 billion, which was already exceeded by $2.3 billion with two months remaining before the close of fiscal year.

“Export sector is not competitive and is still a family business that often leads to division of assets after every two generations,” said Finance Minister Shaukat Tarin. He said that there was a need to consolidate the export sector to bring foreign direct investment to the sector.

The new finance minister wants to propel economic growth that has remained subdued in the first three years of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) government. The government had been forced to adopt fiscal stabilisation policies after it inherited a current account deficit of $19 billion.

However, it could not increase exports in the past almost three years and resultantly the trade deficit was again widening, which could make it challenging for the government to implement pro-economic growth policies without triggering another external sector crisis.

A study by the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics says the country needs to grow at a rate of 7% to 9% to create jobs for new entrants and reduce the unchecked public debt. However, an Asian Development Bank study says the economy may face headwinds, if growth constantly remains above 3.8% without fixing the structural bottlenecks.

The government has already missed the annual export target in its first two years. For the current fiscal year, it has set the export target at $22.7 billion.

Pakistan’s exports have long remained around $2 billion per month and the trend has not significantly changed despite excessive currency depreciation during the PTI government’s tenure.

During the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) tenure, exports had peaked at $2.3 billion a month and then dropped below $2 billion.

On a month-on-month basis, exports shrank 7.2% to $2.2 billion in April over March, according to the PBS. There was a reduction of $171 million in export receipts in April 2021 compared to the preceding month, it added.

Imports also dipped 8.3% month-on-month and stood at $5.2 billion last month. In absolute terms, there was a reduction of $472 million in the import bill over March. As a result, the trade deficit contracted over 9% last month.

On an annualised basis, exports in April amounted to $2.2 billion, which were higher by 129% or $1.3 billion over last year’s exports, when global trade was closed in the aftermath of the first wave of the Covid-19 disease.

Imports also increased 62% to $5.2 billion last month on a year-on-year basis. In absolute terms, the imports increased $2 billion.

Resultantly, the trade deficit widened 33% in April 2021 on a year-on-year basis. The gap between imports and exports remained at $3 billion last month, a jump of $747 million compared to a year ago.

Published in The Express Tribune, May 6th, 2021.
 
Can somebody explain the tax collection issue. Have tax receipts gone up? Are more people paying tax? I think Pakistan has one of the lowest tax - gdp ratios in the world but I could be wrong as that was a few years ago and it was one of the targets of the current govt.
 
Abid Z said:
Can somebody explain the tax collection issue. Have tax receipts gone up? Are more people paying tax? I think Pakistan has one of the lowest tax - gdp ratios in the world but I could be wrong as that was a few years ago and it was one of the targets of the current govt.
Click to expand...

The FBR like the Punjab Police cant be reformed, it needs to be scrapped. We need to start again and find educated, well paid and most importantly, honest officers for FBR. Otherwise, it will be a piggy bank for corrupt officers and their treacherous progeny. Tax collection is woefully low, it needs to be at least double what it is atm.
 
Bewal Express said:
The FBR like the Punjab Police cant be reformed, it needs to be scrapped. We need to start again and find educated, well paid and most importantly, honest officers for FBR. Otherwise, it will be a piggy bank for corrupt officers and their treacherous progeny. Tax collection is woefully low, it needs to be at least double what it is atm.
Click to expand...

That’s a bit simplistic you can’t just scrap a whole department and stuff with entirely new personnel and procedures in a short space of time. Rather takes time to build up transparency and safeguards so bureaucracies can operate with standards and oversight. Most of the time what we call corruption in third world countries is lack of capacity, transparency and even responsibility

Quite like this though that external organisations are tying FBR to international structures
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www....mf-agree-to-lower-fbr-s-tax-collection-target

But your point is well made that Pakistan tax to gdp ratio is about 12% even lower than Haiti and Burkina Faso. But this is the 2017 statistic. There was some talk about getting it to 15% by the pti government so I’m wondering how they are doing.
 
Abid Z said:
That’s a bit simplistic you can’t just scrap a whole department and stuff with entirely new personnel and procedures in a short space of time. Rather takes time to build up transparency and safeguards so bureaucracies can operate with standards and oversight. Most of the time what we call corruption in third world countries is lack of capacity, transparency and even responsibility

Quite like this though that external organisations are tying FBR to international structures
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www....mf-agree-to-lower-fbr-s-tax-collection-target

But your point is well made that Pakistan tax to gdp ratio is about 12% even lower than Haiti and Burkina Faso. But this is the 2017 statistic. There was some talk about getting it to 15% by the pti government so I’m wondering how they are doing.
Click to expand...

You can. What you need to do is to have a transition team in place. The PK bureaucracy by its very nature is corrupt and its needs to be treated with iron fists. Its first and only aim is to fleece the public, and hopefully be firing and hiring again, you may change the culture of this mafia. I guarantee that if we have this conversation in 50 years time, the same issues will be there with both organisations. The number of good people in these organisations will be minute compared to the criminals.
 
Pakistani rupee hit a new 23-month high of Rs152.27 against the US dollar in the inter-bank market on Friday despite the fact that the country’s foreign currency reserves dropped significantly after the government paid off commercial loans worth $1 billion.

On the contrary, gold price surged Rs1,100, or 1%, to a one-month high of Rs105,500 per tola (11.66 grams) in line with the uptrend in the global market. The precious metal surpassed a three-month high price and was trading above $1,800 per ounce (31.10 grams) in the international market.

The rupee maintained the uptrend for the eighth consecutive working day on Friday. Following a fresh gain of Rs0.32 over the weekend, the rupee has cumulatively surged by Rs2.22 (or 1.44%) in the past eight days against the US dollar, according to data of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP).

“The rupee is gaining ground against the US dollar due to increased inflow of worker remittances,” Pak-Kuwait Investment Company Head of Research Samiullah Tariq said.

Overseas Pakistanis send high amounts to their families back home ahead of Eidul Fitr every year.

Remittances surged 43% to an eight-month high at $2.72 billion in March 2021 compared to the same month of last year.

The strengthening of the rupee may, however, discourage exports from Pakistan. The currency had hit an all-time low at Rs168.43 to the US dollar on August 26, 2020.

Another analyst termed the uptrend of the rupee temporary. “The rupee may move in the range of Rs152-155 in the short run and weaken to somewhere between Rs158-160 against the US dollar over the next six to eight months,” said AA Gold Commodities Director Adnan Agar.

Gold shines

Gold shined once again in the domestic and global markets on Friday. The commodity surged in the international market after the US reported a poor employment data.

“Poor US jobs data has pushed gold price upwards in the world market,” said AA Gold Commodities Director Adnan Agar.

It hit $1,842 per ounce during the day. “It may test the next resistance level of $1,850 per ounce in a couple of days,” he said.

The price of $1,850 appears to be a strong resistance level and may trigger profit-taking by investors as gold has gained $90 per ounce under the current cycle of price increase.

Gold may continue to move in a range of $1,700 to $1,800 over the next three months. Earlier, it hit an all-time high of $2,070 per ounce in August 2020 amid Covid-19 concerns.

He said gold may not return to the higher side (above $1,850) in the medium term (three months) since cryptocurrencies had become a source of attraction for investors.

“Cryptocurrencies have replaced gold as an asset for investment,” he said.

He said that gold regained strength after US unemployment rate increased to 6.1% in April compared to 5.8% in March, according to the latest data reported on Friday.

The unemployment rate shot up because the US created only 500,000 non-farm jobs compared to the projected 900,000 jobs in April.

“US economy is gradually becoming an overheated economy as the government continues to inject funds by selling bonds to banks and providing direct relief to almost every person in the country,” he said.

The overheating economy may force the central bank to increase interest rate over the next six to seven months. The expected action might prompt renewed buying of gold and push the price beyond $1,850 per ounce, he said.
 
Pakistan economy is on solid growth path and has potential to grow at much higher rate in next five years despite a challenging environment across the globe, experts say.

Top government officials, analysts and corporate leaders repose trust in growing economy and said higher GDP growth in 5-6 per cent per annum is going to be a ‘new normal’ in next five years amid considering strong economic indicators of the country.

“Yes, we have a potential to grow at much higher rate in coming years. The State Bank of Pakistan projects three per cent GDP growth in financial year 2020-21 and four per cent in 2021-22,” Dr Reza Baqir, governor, State Bank of Pakistan, told Khaleej Times during an event in Dubai last week.

Newly-appointed Finance Minister Shaukat Tarin said Pakistan will go for an ambitious six per cent economic growth target in the next two years as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) shows its willingness to renegotiate tough conditions for a $6 billion loan in the wake of rising Covid-19 cases.

“The federal government will earmark as much as Rs900 billion ($6 billion) for development expenditure in the year beginning July. That’s the bare minimum we need for a country this size,” Tarin said.


Climbing the charts

The IMF has projected four per cent GDP growth for Pakistan during fiscal year 2021-22 starting in July. Islamabad is expected to post 1.5 per cent expansion during the current fiscal year ending on June 30 after a rare contraction (-0.4 per cent) last year.

“We have strong economic indicators this year despite the Covid-19 pandemic challenges and this is a good omen for the economy. The government ensures more than Rs2 trillion stimulus to steer the economy out of Covid crisis by supporting the businesses through much-needed liquidity and funds distribution at grass root level,” Dr Baqir said.

Elaborating, the central bank governor said SBP offered Rs450 billion liquidity under Temporary Economic Refinance Facility to private sector to absorb Covid shock while another Rs240 billion provided as working capital to avoid lay-off and job losses.

“The central bank also offered Rs900 billion cushion to banks to ensure relief to distress businesses in deferment and restructuring of principal payment and mark-up charges. These are some of the measures which helped the economy to bounce back quickly to meet global demand after the lockdown period,” Dr Baqir said.

Referring to rising foreign exchange reserves, orderly rupee-dollar parity, improving current account balance and other economic indicators such as large-scale manufacturing, cement, automobiles and fast-moving consumer goods, the SBP governor said economy is moving in right direction and will perform better in coming years.

“Pakistan is one of the few countries that reduced fiscal deficit despite the Covid challenge and global economic slowdown by reprioritising spending. The country’s public debt to GDP ratio has remained broadly stable last year while it has risen for most emerging markets due to Covid; this has improved the country’s creditworthiness,” he said.

Rupee-dollar parity

The governor said the market-based exchange rate system determines the rupee-dollar parity which stands at around Rs153 today after hitting an all-time high of 168 last year.

“And close to $16 billion foreign exchange reserves raised through an improving current account, initiatives such as the Pakistan Remittance Initiative and Roshan Digital Account that is actually providing a solid base for a ‘sustainable economic turnaround’ of the country,” he said.

About the challenges ahead, Dr Baqir said it is key to address poverty alleviation and high food inflation to bring real change in the economy.

“The government accords top priority to address these serious challenges through administrative measures to improve goods supply chain system,” he said.

Reforms taking hold

Irfan Mustafa, who co-hosted the event with Mr Imran Choudhry, praised the eloquent and persuasive presentation by the central bank governor that further increased the confidence and optimism of the community that the reforms being undertaken by the government are taking hold and showing clear signs of a turnaround of Pakistan’s economy.

Mustafa, an entrepreneur and senior global executive, further opined that "we have the resources and the potential to grow our economy" on high single digits in years to come to lift millions out of poverty and become a regional economic power.

"We as overseas Pakistanis are contributing whole heartedly towards this goal," he said.

The Dubai-based leading Pakistani businessman Imran Chaudhry also reposed trust in bright future of the economy and said it is on the right track to perform better in coming years.

"Pakistan does have potential to achieve higher growth in next five years," he said.

High single-digit growth

Samiullah Tariq, head of research at Pakistan Kuwait Investment, said Pakistan economy should grow at much higher rates to realise true economic potential of the country.

“Pakistan is a nation of 220 million plus people and every year new earners are now coming into the main stream. Renewable energy is providing everyone a sustainable and cheap energy making lives easier and production cheaper,” Tariq told Khaleej Times.

“IT, e-commerce, internet and cellular sectors have huge potential to drive economy into fast lane and achieve much higher GDP growth in next five years. High signle-digit growth is going to be a new normal in years to come,” he said.

— muzaffarrizvi@khaleejtimes.com

Rs2T+ stimulus at a glance

> Rs450 billion liquidity offered under Temporary Economic Refinance Facility

> Rs240 billion provided as working capital to avoid lay-off and job losses

> Rs900 billion cushion given to banks to ensure relief to distress businesses in deferment and restructuring of principal payment and mark-up charges

GDP growth on the rise

Fiscal year Growth (%)

2019-20 -0.4

2020-21 3.0

2021-22 4.0

2022-23 6.0

Sectors to drive growth

• IT

• E-commerce

• Internet and cellular

• Automobiles

• Large-scale manufacturing

https://www.khaleejtimes.com/business/economy/rs2-trillion-stimulus-revives-pakistan-economy
 
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-partner="tweetdeck"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">National Accounts Committee has finalized GDP growth estimate & GDP growth is estimated at 3.94%.This reflects the success of our govt's economic policies while managing COVID 19 pandemic. Our V-shaped recovery is balanced between 3 major sectors: agriculture, industry & services</p>— Imran Khan (@ImranKhanPTI) <a href="https://twitter.com/ImranKhanPTI/status/1395749812373446662?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 21, 2021</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 
MenInG said:
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-partner="tweetdeck"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">National Accounts Committee has finalized GDP growth estimate & GDP growth is estimated at 3.94%.This reflects the success of our govt's economic policies while managing COVID 19 pandemic. Our V-shaped recovery is balanced between 3 major sectors: agriculture, industry & services</p>— Imran Khan (@ImranKhanPTI) <a href="https://twitter.com/ImranKhanPTI/status/1395749812373446662?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 21, 2021</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Click to expand...

Wow. I had to read it twice. In the middle of a pandemic we are hitting figures that many countries can only dream of. Some economies have contracted by 8-10% and all This with a current account still in surplus. Lets improve the supply side to tackle inflation and we have sustainable growth. Oil prices will remain the biggest determinant of future growth but IA we still carry on with sustainable growth. And if the crooks hadn't made such terrible Electricity contracts with IPPs, this figure would be around 7%.
 
The flow of foreign investment into different sectors of Pakistan’s economy like power, telecommunication and oil and gas exploration remained moderate at $1.55 billion in the first 10 months (July-April) of current fiscal year.

This has placed a big question mark over the investment climate in the country.

Besides, rampant uncertainty across the globe due to Covid-19 – including Pakistan - has encouraged international investors to hold back new investment plans until things settle down in the coming months and years.

The inflow of foreign direct investment (FDI) into the country dropped 32.5% to $1.55 billion in the first 10 months of current fiscal year 2020-21 compared to $2.3 billion in the same period of last year, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) reported on Friday.

In April alone, foreign investment improved to $158.4 million compared to $151.1 million in the same month of previous year.

“FDI inflows into Pakistan remain moderate,” remarked Pak-Kuwait Investment Company Head of Research Samiullah Tariq while talking to The Express Tribune.

“They should grow over the next one year in the wake of stability in the rupee-dollar parity and improvement in balance of payments position in FY21.”

Special Economic Zones (SEZs), which were under the development phase, would also attract FDI among export sectors in the country, he said.

Historical trend suggests that the FDI mostly flows into oil and gas exploration, power, telecommunication and banking sectors. “FDI inflows continue to revolve around large sectors like these.”

This is probably due to Chinese investment which is going into the power sector of Pakistan. Besides, Swedish and Norwegian investments are entering the telecom sector and financial businesses in the country.

From 2014 to 2018, foreign investors mostly poured money into the sectors which did not pose a risk to their profit margins due to rupee depreciation such as the power sector.

“They got guaranteed rate of return in dollar while investing in such sectors,” he recalled.

Pakistan’s economy is slowly and gradually gaining growth momentum, which should encourage foreign investors to invest in new projects.

On Friday, the National Accounts Committee surprisingly anticipated GDP growth of 4% for the current fiscal year compared to projection of 3% until a day ago.

“The growth (of 4%) is possible considering the low base effect of last year, achievement of comparatively higher growth in manufacturing and export sectors, bumper wheat crop (in agriculture sector) and current account balance in surplus,” he said.

To recall, the government has changed its policy to attract FDI into export sectors as opposed to import-led consumption sectors earlier. The policy shift has interrupted the FDI growth in recent years in addition to the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic.

An official, who had been working with foreign investors in Pakistan, said that he was receiving a great number of queries for FDI in fast moving consumer goods and textile sectors.

However, the government is prioritising the inflow of FDI into export sectors.

Pakistan has experienced a significant improvement in the World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business Index last year, however, there is a lot of room for further improvement.

Besides, persistent instability in domestic politics is another leading reason behind the low foreign investment in the country.

The central bank reported that massive chunks of FDI came from China, Hong Kong, Sweden, the United Arab Emirates and the United Kingdom in April 2021. Each of them invested $13-57.5 million during the month.

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2301017/foreign-investment-drops-325-in-10-months
 
A strong and sustained economic recovery (which is very likely as the global economy will see a massive bounce back post the pandemic) coupled with keeping out of unnecessary controversies will be a disaster for the opposition parties ambitions for the next general elections. The timing is perfect for PTI ahead of the general election in 2023.

The government and army relations remain stable and strong. The opposition are divided, tied up in corruption cases and their leadership is transitions from fathers to sons and daughters.

Another 5 years of PTI government will result in a generation of voters who would have grown up under PTI governments which is a significant consideration in establishing PTI as a mature party rather than the new kid on the block.

Imran needs to focus on succession planning which will not be easy but essential for the longer term prospects of PTI as a political force.
 
US Security Assistance To Pakistan Remains Suspended, Says Pentagon

Former US president Donald Trump, in January 2018, had suspended all security assistance to Pakistan.

Washington: The status of US security assistance to Pakistan that was suspended by the previous Trump administration hasn't changed, the Pentagon said on Monday as US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke to Pakistan Army Chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa and US National Security Advisor Jek Sullivan met his Pakistani counterpart in Geneva.
"At this time, the US security assistance to Pakistan is still suspended. I will not get into speculating one way or another about if or whether that will change going forward," Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby told reporters at a news conference.

He was responding to a question on if the new Biden administration has reviewed the policy in this regard of the previous Trump administration and if there are any changes in it or was this issue on the table during talks with the Pakistani leadership.

Former US president Donald Trump, in January 2018, had suspended all security assistance to Pakistan, arguing that he was not satisfied with the latter's cooperation and role in the fight against terrorism.

Earlier in the day, Austin spoke with Pakistan's General Bajwa to discuss shared regional interests and objectives, Kirby said.

"During the call, the secretary reiterated his appreciation for Pakistan's support to the Afghanistan peace negotiations and expressed his desire to continue to build on the United States-Pakistan bilateral relationship," he said.

"I reiterated my appreciation for the US-Pakistan relationship and my desire to continue to work together to further regional security and stability," Austin said in a tweet.

A day earlier, Sullivan met his Pakistani counterpart Moeed Yusuf in Geneva.

"Both sides discussed a range of bilateral, regional and global issues of mutual interest, and ways to advance practical cooperation. They agreed to continue with the conversation," spokesperson of the National Security Council Emily Horne said.

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/us-security-assistance-to-pakistan-remains-suspended-says-pentagon-2448705
 
Minister for Planning, Development and Special Initiatives Asad Umar on Tuesday credited Prime Minister Imran Khan's strategy for dealing with the coronavirus pandemic for the country's better economic performance despite earlier projections.

He made the comment during a press conference in Islamabad in which he discussed the figures recently released by the National Accounts Committee which estimated a 3.94 per cent economic growth rate this fiscal year, compared to a revised negative 0.47pc in 2019-20.

At the outset, Umar said the federal cabinet analysed the figures in its meeting today after an intense debate was witnessed over the last few days. The minister said he shared the reasons behind the growth rate with the cabinet.

"In a year in which the world's big economies were in trouble and the challenge of Covid was there ... we had a comparatively better situation. The foundation stone for this better economic performance was the prime minister's decision" to protect the poor and combat the coronavirus in a way that people's livelihoods would not be affected, he said.

"There is no doubt people still went through difficulty but [Pakistan] remained better off as compared to the rest of the world. The world's big organisations and people also said work has been done [in a better way] in Pakistan."=

Outlining the reasons for the improved economic growth rate, Umar said because of the "innovative work" of the Ehsaas Emergency Cash Programme, money was given to nearly one-third of Pakistani families, which was then put back into the economy when the people spent it.

The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) played a "wonderful role" and took timely decisions, according to the minister, while the Ministry of Finance gave a "very big stimulus package" which boosted businesses' confidence.

"The prime minister personally [made efforts] for the construction sector. He held negotiations with the managing director of the IMF (International Monetary Fund) and got concessions." Umar contended that daily-wage labourers earned the most from the construction sector, adding that Pakistan did not have trillions of dollars compared to bigger economies so it wanted people to invest in sectors such as construction that generated the most employment.

He said the government had been receiving statistics for months and no one had raised any questions previously.

The minister shared that overseas Pakistanis had sent more than $5.4 billion in remittances in the first 10 months of the year which would rise to around $6.5bn by the year's end.

"More than half of Pakistan's population is directly or indirectly linked to agriculture. Out of five big crops of Pakistan, cotton [production] was not as good as last year's. Three of four crops — wheat, maize and rice — had record production this year."

The sugarcane crop this year was also a bumper crop and the second-largest yield in Pakistan's history, Umar disclosed. All of the data regarding crops had been available for months but there was no controversy attached to it, he added.

"It is logical that if you see such growth in the production sector, then the services sector will also show growth. We do not get high-frequency data for construction so we use cement sales as a proxy. Every month, it is being reported in newspapers that record sales have taken place."

Similarly, loans taken by the private sector were a good indicator of industrial activity and figures were reported every month by the SBP, he said. Data for the first nine months of the year showed a 60pc increase in the number of loans taken by the private sector in general while there was an increase of Rs126bn in loans taken by the sector for expansion purposes, he added.

'It is doing that because it sees something [in the future]," he said, while stressing that "all high-frequency data is pointing towards fast pace [of growth] and strength in economy".

The minister said some people were doubting the economic growth rate because it was different from the projections by the World Bank and the IMF. He pointed to last year when the National Accounts Committee projected that the economic growth rate would be -0.38pc but later revised it to -0.47pc.

The World Bank and IMF had said back then that Pakistan's economy would shrink by 1.5 to 2pc which had not happened and the National Accounts Committee was proved "right", he said.

He said he "understood the opposition's worry" about the figures, especially the PML-N who he claimed was concerned at how PM Imran and his team had "made the economy stand on its feet when they left it in tatters".

Information Minister Fawad Chaudhry, who addressed the press conference before Umar, apprised the media of decisions taken by the cabinet, including the approval of a proscription review committee that would decide on the ban imposed on Tehreek-i-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP) last month.

Chaudhry said the proscribed party had submitted a request to review the ban and under the Anti-Terrorism Act, the government was bound to form a committee comprising officials of the interior ministry for review.

During the meeting, the cabinet "welcomed the improvement of relations" between Turkey and Saudi Arabia, he said, adding: "We believe that a reduction of grievances among Muslim ummah will bring stability in the world and we support it."

A point-by-point presentation on the government's bill on electoral reforms was given by Adviser to the Prime Minister on Parliamentary Affairs Babar Awan, he said.

Chaudhry said the government was "waiting for the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) to take action" on how its social media pages were misused, in an apparent reference to the ECP sharing a journalist's vlog on Twitter in which he termed Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs) as "expensive fraud".

Easier visas for Chinese citizens
Chaudhry also disclosed that the cabinet approved a "special visa process" for Chinese citizens working on China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) projects or those who wanted to invest in the country.

"Pakistani missions in China will provide a two-year work entry visa to Chinese citizens for CPEC [projects] within 48 hours. Security clearance will be given within 30 days. Separate immigration counters will be established on the line of green channel for CPEC business visa holders," he shared.

"[For] work/business visa, a separate subcategory of CPEC visas will be established. Similarly, in China, separate desks will be established at Pakistani missions for considering CPEC visas," he added.
 
MenInG said:
Minister for Planning, Development and Special Initiatives Asad Umar on Tuesday credited Prime Minister Imran Khan's strategy for dealing with the coronavirus pandemic for the country's better economic performance despite earlier projections.

He made the comment during a press conference in Islamabad in which he discussed the figures recently released by the National Accounts Committee which estimated a 3.94 per cent economic growth rate this fiscal year, compared to a revised negative 0.47pc in 2019-20.

At the outset, Umar said the federal cabinet analysed the figures in its meeting today after an intense debate was witnessed over the last few days. The minister said he shared the reasons behind the growth rate with the cabinet.

"In a year in which the world's big economies were in trouble and the challenge of Covid was there ... we had a comparatively better situation. The foundation stone for this better economic performance was the prime minister's decision" to protect the poor and combat the coronavirus in a way that people's livelihoods would not be affected, he said.

"There is no doubt people still went through difficulty but [Pakistan] remained better off as compared to the rest of the world. The world's big organisations and people also said work has been done [in a better way] in Pakistan."=

Outlining the reasons for the improved economic growth rate, Umar said because of the "innovative work" of the Ehsaas Emergency Cash Programme, money was given to nearly one-third of Pakistani families, which was then put back into the economy when the people spent it.

The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) played a "wonderful role" and took timely decisions, according to the minister, while the Ministry of Finance gave a "very big stimulus package" which boosted businesses' confidence.

"The prime minister personally [made efforts] for the construction sector. He held negotiations with the managing director of the IMF (International Monetary Fund) and got concessions." Umar contended that daily-wage labourers earned the most from the construction sector, adding that Pakistan did not have trillions of dollars compared to bigger economies so it wanted people to invest in sectors such as construction that generated the most employment.

He said the government had been receiving statistics for months and no one had raised any questions previously.

The minister shared that overseas Pakistanis had sent more than $5.4 billion in remittances in the first 10 months of the year which would rise to around $6.5bn by the year's end.

"More than half of Pakistan's population is directly or indirectly linked to agriculture. Out of five big crops of Pakistan, cotton [production] was not as good as last year's. Three of four crops — wheat, maize and rice — had record production this year."

The sugarcane crop this year was also a bumper crop and the second-largest yield in Pakistan's history, Umar disclosed. All of the data regarding crops had been available for months but there was no controversy attached to it, he added.

"It is logical that if you see such growth in the production sector, then the services sector will also show growth. We do not get high-frequency data for construction so we use cement sales as a proxy. Every month, it is being reported in newspapers that record sales have taken place."

Similarly, loans taken by the private sector were a good indicator of industrial activity and figures were reported every month by the SBP, he said. Data for the first nine months of the year showed a 60pc increase in the number of loans taken by the private sector in general while there was an increase of Rs126bn in loans taken by the sector for expansion purposes, he added.

'It is doing that because it sees something [in the future]," he said, while stressing that "all high-frequency data is pointing towards fast pace [of growth] and strength in economy".

The minister said some people were doubting the economic growth rate because it was different from the projections by the World Bank and the IMF. He pointed to last year when the National Accounts Committee projected that the economic growth rate would be -0.38pc but later revised it to -0.47pc.

The World Bank and IMF had said back then that Pakistan's economy would shrink by 1.5 to 2pc which had not happened and the National Accounts Committee was proved "right", he said.

He said he "understood the opposition's worry" about the figures, especially the PML-N who he claimed was concerned at how PM Imran and his team had "made the economy stand on its feet when they left it in tatters".

Information Minister Fawad Chaudhry, who addressed the press conference before Umar, apprised the media of decisions taken by the cabinet, including the approval of a proscription review committee that would decide on the ban imposed on Tehreek-i-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP) last month.

Chaudhry said the proscribed party had submitted a request to review the ban and under the Anti-Terrorism Act, the government was bound to form a committee comprising officials of the interior ministry for review.

During the meeting, the cabinet "welcomed the improvement of relations" between Turkey and Saudi Arabia, he said, adding: "We believe that a reduction of grievances among Muslim ummah will bring stability in the world and we support it."

A point-by-point presentation on the government's bill on electoral reforms was given by Adviser to the Prime Minister on Parliamentary Affairs Babar Awan, he said.

Chaudhry said the government was "waiting for the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) to take action" on how its social media pages were misused, in an apparent reference to the ECP sharing a journalist's vlog on Twitter in which he termed Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs) as "expensive fraud".

Easier visas for Chinese citizens
Chaudhry also disclosed that the cabinet approved a "special visa process" for Chinese citizens working on China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) projects or those who wanted to invest in the country.

"Pakistani missions in China will provide a two-year work entry visa to Chinese citizens for CPEC [projects] within 48 hours. Security clearance will be given within 30 days. Separate immigration counters will be established on the line of green channel for CPEC business visa holders," he shared.

"[For] work/business visa, a separate subcategory of CPEC visas will be established. Similarly, in China, separate desks will be established at Pakistani missions for considering CPEC visas," he added.
Click to expand...

Drive home the supply side reforms and we can reduce prices and get it to 8%. Break up the mafia cartels across all sectors, cut Sugar production and drive up cotton production to create the synergy with our textile Mills. Create Technology parks to encourage and develop IT startups, fund them and we could easily hit the 8%.
 
Punjab’s anti-corruption dept recovered Rs220b during PTI govt: PM Imran

Indirect cash recovery stands at Rs26b in contrast to zero during PML-N's last 10 years, the PM says


Prime Minister Imran Khan said on Wednesday that Punjab’s anti-corruption department had recovered Rs220 billion during the last 31 months of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf’s (PTI) government as compared to the dismal record of the Pakistan Muslim League – Nawaz’s (PML-N) government’s 10-year tenure.

“The difference in anti-corruption [department] Punjab’s performance during PTI [government] and PML-N's 10 [years] is clearly visible in the results achieved so far,” the premier said on Twitter.

The difference in anti corruption dept Punjab's performance during PTI govt & PMLN's 10 yrs is clearly visible in the results achieved so far. In the last 31 mths of our govt in Punjab anti corruption recovered Rs 220 bn, in contrast to dismal record of PMLN govt's 10 yrs.
— Imran Khan

PM Imran further said that the state land worth Rs192 billion had been recovered as compared to Rs2.6 billion recovered under a decade of PML-N rule in the province.

“Cash recovery is Rs2.35bn as compared to only Rs430mn during PML-N's 10 [years]. Indirect cash recovery now stands at Rs26bn in contrast to zero during PML-N's last 10 [years],” the premier added.

State land worth Rs.192 bn recovered as compared to Rs 2.6 bn worth state land recovery under PMLN's 10 yrs. Cash recovery is Rs 2.35 bn as compared to only Rs 430 mn during PMLN's 10 yrs. Indirect cash recovery now stands at Rs 26 bn in contrast to zero during PMLN's last 10 yrs
— Imran Khan

He added the same contrast was there in the National Accountability Bureau's (NAB) performance as it had recovered Rs484 billion in the last three years (2018-2020) in contrast to Rs290 billion recovered during 1999-2017.

“When [government] does not protect the criminals and lets investigation agencies and accountability work without interference, results [are] achieved," the premier remarked

The same contrast is there in NAB's performance. Between 2018-2020 of our govt's tenure NAB recovered Rs 484 bn in contrast to only Rs 290 bn recovered during 1999 - 2017. When govt doesn't protect criminals & allows accountability to work without interference, results achieved
— Imran Khan

Two days ago, the premier praised NAB for recovering Rs484 billion in the last three years.

On May 21, it was reported that the country's anti-graft body claimed to have recovered Rs23.85 billion in the fake bank accounts scam.

NAB Chairman Justice (retd) Javed Iqbal, chaired a meeting at its headquarters to review the performance of the anti-graft body's Rawalpindi wing.

NAB Deputy Chairman Hussain Asghar, Prosecutor General Accountability Syed Asghar Haider, Operations DG Zahir Shah, NAB Rawalpindi DG Irfan Naeem Mangi, and other senior officers were present in the meeting.

Mangi informed the participants of the meeting that NAB Rawalpindi had filed 14 references in the fake bank accounts scam which were under adjudication before the accountability courts in Islamabad.

He added that NAB Rawalpindi had also filed a reference against PML-N's Ahsan Iqbal, a former federal minister for planning and development, with an accountability court

The Narowal Sports City (NSC) project, formerly known as Sports Stadium Narowal, was initially conceived in 1999 on the directions of Ahsan “without any feasibility study and codal formalities as per law”.

The project was initially approved at a cost of Rs34.74 million by the Central Development Working Party (CDWP), headed by Ahsan himself, who “in a case of conflict of interests diverted the funds for his political mileage”.

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2301689/punjabs-anti-corruption-dept-recovered-rs220b-during-pti-govt-pm-imran
 
https://www.dawn.com/news/1625838/psx-sets-new-record-of-daily-traded-volume-at-156-billion-shares

The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) on Wednesday recorded an all-time high daily trading volume, with Planning Minister Asad Umar attributing the development to the market reacting to signs of sustained economic recovery.

The capital markets remained positive throughout today's session as a variety of positive developments increased investors’ risk appetite, registered by a record high traded turnover of 1.56 billion shares.

"New daily traded volume record set on the [PSX]. Today's volume exceeded previous record by 39 per cent," Umar tweeted.

He said it was reflective of the market reacting to "signs of sustained recovery" and "the successful containment of the Covid 3rd wave ... though risk still remains".

In Wednesday's session, WTL carried the lantern of gains for the investors, which added volumes of 707 million shares to the overall trading activity — almost half of the total intraday volume, while achieving a steep gain of 41.23pc in its share price, a closing report by Aba Ali Habib said.

The bullish trend in share prices parked the benchmark KSE-100 index at the 46,812.31 level with a gain of 511.65 points on Wednesday.

The index remained positive throughout the session, touching an intraday high of 46,855.59

Of the 97 traded companies in the KSE-100 index, 77 closed up and 20 closed down. The total volume traded for the benchmark index was 306.27m shares.

Sectors propping up the index were Commercial Banks with 147 points, Technology and Communication with 99 points, Oil & Gas Exploration Companies with 73 points, Textile Composite with 46 points and Food and Personal Care Products with 28 points.

The most points added to the index were by TRG which contributed 72, followed by OGDC with 45 points, PPL with 30, MCB with 29 and BAFL with 28.

Sector wise, the index was let down by Cement with six points, Paper and Board with five points, Tobacco with four points, Glass and Ceramics with three points and Chemical with two points.

The most points taken off the index were by FFC which stripped it of 22 points followed by FCCL with nine points, MLCF with nine points, EPCL with five points and PAKT with four points.

The all-share volume increased by 885.98m to 1,563.36m Shares, while the market cap rose by Rs85.36 billion.

The total number of companies traded was 423 compared to 418 during the previous session. Of the scrips traded, 284 closed up, 125 closed down, and 14 remained unchanged.

The traded value increased by Rs4.83 billion to Rs28.34 billion.
Click to expand...
 
OMB said:
Punjab’s anti-corruption dept recovered Rs220b during PTI govt: PM Imran

Indirect cash recovery stands at Rs26b in contrast to zero during PML-N's last 10 years, the PM says


Prime Minister Imran Khan said on Wednesday that Punjab’s anti-corruption department had recovered Rs220 billion during the last 31 months of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf’s (PTI) government as compared to the dismal record of the Pakistan Muslim League – Nawaz’s (PML-N) government’s 10-year tenure.

“The difference in anti-corruption [department] Punjab’s performance during PTI [government] and PML-N's 10 [years] is clearly visible in the results achieved so far,” the premier said on Twitter.

The difference in anti corruption dept Punjab's performance during PTI govt & PMLN's 10 yrs is clearly visible in the results achieved so far. In the last 31 mths of our govt in Punjab anti corruption recovered Rs 220 bn, in contrast to dismal record of PMLN govt's 10 yrs.
— Imran Khan

PM Imran further said that the state land worth Rs192 billion had been recovered as compared to Rs2.6 billion recovered under a decade of PML-N rule in the province.

“Cash recovery is Rs2.35bn as compared to only Rs430mn during PML-N's 10 [years]. Indirect cash recovery now stands at Rs26bn in contrast to zero during PML-N's last 10 [years],” the premier added.

State land worth Rs.192 bn recovered as compared to Rs 2.6 bn worth state land recovery under PMLN's 10 yrs. Cash recovery is Rs 2.35 bn as compared to only Rs 430 mn during PMLN's 10 yrs. Indirect cash recovery now stands at Rs 26 bn in contrast to zero during PMLN's last 10 yrs
— Imran Khan

He added the same contrast was there in the National Accountability Bureau's (NAB) performance as it had recovered Rs484 billion in the last three years (2018-2020) in contrast to Rs290 billion recovered during 1999-2017.

“When [government] does not protect the criminals and lets investigation agencies and accountability work without interference, results [are] achieved," the premier remarked

The same contrast is there in NAB's performance. Between 2018-2020 of our govt's tenure NAB recovered Rs 484 bn in contrast to only Rs 290 bn recovered during 1999 - 2017. When govt doesn't protect criminals & allows accountability to work without interference, results achieved
— Imran Khan

Two days ago, the premier praised NAB for recovering Rs484 billion in the last three years.

On May 21, it was reported that the country's anti-graft body claimed to have recovered Rs23.85 billion in the fake bank accounts scam.

NAB Chairman Justice (retd) Javed Iqbal, chaired a meeting at its headquarters to review the performance of the anti-graft body's Rawalpindi wing.

NAB Deputy Chairman Hussain Asghar, Prosecutor General Accountability Syed Asghar Haider, Operations DG Zahir Shah, NAB Rawalpindi DG Irfan Naeem Mangi, and other senior officers were present in the meeting.

Mangi informed the participants of the meeting that NAB Rawalpindi had filed 14 references in the fake bank accounts scam which were under adjudication before the accountability courts in Islamabad.

He added that NAB Rawalpindi had also filed a reference against PML-N's Ahsan Iqbal, a former federal minister for planning and development, with an accountability court

The Narowal Sports City (NSC) project, formerly known as Sports Stadium Narowal, was initially conceived in 1999 on the directions of Ahsan “without any feasibility study and codal formalities as per law”.

The project was initially approved at a cost of Rs34.74 million by the Central Development Working Party (CDWP), headed by Ahsan himself, who “in a case of conflict of interests diverted the funds for his political mileage”.

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2301689/punjabs-anti-corruption-dept-recovered-rs220b-during-pti-govt-pm-imran
Click to expand...
[MENTION=131701]Mamoon[/MENTION]
You said they had recovered nothing. Are you sure?🤣
 
Bewal Express said:
Drive home the supply side reforms and we can reduce prices and get it to 8%. Break up the mafia cartels across all sectors, cut Sugar production and drive up cotton production to create the synergy with our textile Mills. Create Technology parks to encourage and develop IT startups, fund them and we could easily hit the 8%.
Click to expand...

I get all hot and bothered when you use phrases like "supply side reforms" :))
 
Prime Minister Imran Khan on Friday expressed hope at the upward trajectory of the economy and said the country has passed its difficult economic phase and is now on the path to prosperity with almost 4pc growth rate predicted.

"This country is now on the path to progress," the premier said while addressing a ceremony for the commercial launch of Rashakai Prioritized Special Economic Zone (SEZ) in Nowshera, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa.

"The economy of the entire country has started to grow," he said and added that, "large scale manufacturing is growing rapidly, which is the biggest indicator of growth".

"The economic growth rate has amazed even our rivals who previously accused us of destroying the country."

Now, the premier added, they accuse us of lying. "I want to tell them, I didn't come to power through the rigging. Unlike you, I'm the captain who brought a neutral umpire," he quipped.

"We achieved record growth in agriculture and made sure that the farmers are given their due share. We made sure that the sugar mills pay the farmers in full."

Pakistan, the prime minister maintained, also witnessed record increase in the production of wheat, corn, and rice and in the sale of fertilizer." He further said the initiatives taken brought prosperity to farmers and those living in the rural areas were able to buy tractors, motorcycles, and vehicles.

Imran further stated that Pakistan's future is in industrialization. "Without industrial growth, a country can not increase its wealth."

Regarding collaboration with China, he said, "It is a good omen for Pakistan to learn from a country with the fastest growth".

He observed that industrialization of western countries is built around the old model and Pakistan cannot learn much from them."Our priority should be to facilitate the investors as much as possible, as it will bring more investment in the country."

Imran recalled that the current account, earlier in a deficit of $20 billion, was now in surplus. "But as our economy grows, pressure on the current account may increase and that will be a challenge."

"Through such industrial zones, we can elevate our exports and that will help us avoid a current account deficit, ultimately avoiding a dependence on the IMF," the prime minister said referring to the Rashakai SEZ.

"We are now planning sustainable growth so that we never have to go to the IMF again," he maintained.

On the pandemic, the premier said, "Pakistan is among the four or five few countries in the world that managed to escape a difficult situation." "The credit goes to the NCOC [National Command and Operation Centre] and our thinktanks," he added.

He further stated that the biggest decision was to avoid a lockdown as it would only cause an increase in poverty.

The Rashakai SEZ is part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), aimed at boosting investment and generating large-scale employment opportunities in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
 
GDP growth expected at 4.8% during next fiscal year: Asad Umar

Federal Minister for Planning and Development Asad Umar said Friday Pakistan's gross domestic product (GDP) growth was expected at 4.8% in the financial year 2021-2022.

Highlighting the achievements of the government during a press conference in Islamabad, Umar said in the nine months of the current fiscal year, IT exports showed growth of 46%.

Umar said the country had "witnessed a strong growth" during the fiscal year, and it is expected that the remittances would shoot up from $21.7 to $29.1 till the year end — an increase of 34% in a year.

GNP 'highest' in last 16 years

The federal minister said if we combine the 3.94% GDP growth and the increase in remittances, it will take the gross national product (GNP) growth to 6.5% — the "highest" GNP growth in the last 16 years.

Umar said remittances played an important role in helping the country's economy grow, and it is important that we should give overseas Pakistanis the right to vote.

Shedding light on why the government is expecting a 4.8% GDP growth in FY22, he said that the government has invested in the agricultural sector which will greatly benefit the economy.

He said last year and this year cotton fields were badly affected, however, the government has now bought good quality seeds, stressed on the use of pesticides, and the demand for cotton has increased in the international market since.

10.5 million cotton bales next year

"And so, after consultations with all the provinces, we have concluded that Pakistan can produce 10.5 million bales — 4 million from Sindh, 6 million from Punjab, and the rest from other provinces."

Umar said that the livestock industry had also been adversely impacted by coronavirus, but in the next fiscal year, it will move towards normalisation, and growth in this sector, too, will be visible.

The federal minister said electricity consumption was expected to grow by 6%, and after the government had announced a package for the industries, their power consumption had gone up 15% during the current fiscal — and in the next year, it is predicted to go up further.

Growth is expected in gas, coal, construction, and among several other sectors. "Exports are predicted to go up. This year it stood at $25.2 billion, and in the next year, it will move up to $26.8 billion."

Highest exports in 10 years

The federal minister claimed this year's $25.2 billion worth of exports were the country's highest figures in the last 10 years. "It is unfortunate that the backbone of the economy, exports faced several setbacks during the previous year."

Umar said next year's target for exports, $26.8 billion, would be the highest in the country's history.

The remittances might not grow like this year, but they are expected to move up from $29.1 billion to $31.3 billion — an expected increase of $2 billion.

Umar said the government was aiming at taking up the exports and expanding the IT sector, he said, adding: "The IT exports increased by 46%.

250 million rupees increase in PSDP

The Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP) stood at 650 billion rupees this year, and the government has increased it to 900 billion rupees for the next fiscal year — a "huge" increase of 250 million rupees.

The federal minister said growth during the current fiscal year indicates that in the next fiscal year, the growth will be more than expected.

Giving an overview of the development spending for the next fiscal year, Umar said these envisage road infrastructure projects including Hyderabad-Sukkur motorway.

PSDP spending

Giving an overview of the development spending for the next fiscal year, Umar said these envisage road infrastructure projects including the Hyderabad-Sukkur motorway.

The packages announced for Karachi, and select districts of Sindh and Balochistan, and Gilgit-Baltistan will be financed from the PSDP, the federal minister said.

Similarly, funds will be provided from the development plan for the construction of dams. 28 billion rupees will be allocated for health, 37 billion rupees for the Higher Education Commission, and five billion rupees have also been set aside for the skills education program.

The planning minister said the current account deficit for the next fiscal year has been estimated at 0.07%.

https://www.geo.tv/latest/352317-gdp-growth-to-be-around-48-in-fy22-asad-umar
 
Firebat said:
GDP growth expected at 4.8% during next fiscal year: Asad Umar

Federal Minister for Planning and Development Asad Umar said Friday Pakistan's gross domestic product (GDP) growth was expected at 4.8% in the financial year 2021-2022.

Highlighting the achievements of the government during a press conference in Islamabad, Umar said in the nine months of the current fiscal year, IT exports showed growth of 46%.

Umar said the country had "witnessed a strong growth" during the fiscal year, and it is expected that the remittances would shoot up from $21.7 to $29.1 till the year end — an increase of 34% in a year.

GNP 'highest' in last 16 years

The federal minister said if we combine the 3.94% GDP growth and the increase in remittances, it will take the gross national product (GNP) growth to 6.5% — the "highest" GNP growth in the last 16 years.

Umar said remittances played an important role in helping the country's economy grow, and it is important that we should give overseas Pakistanis the right to vote.

Shedding light on why the government is expecting a 4.8% GDP growth in FY22, he said that the government has invested in the agricultural sector which will greatly benefit the economy.

He said last year and this year cotton fields were badly affected, however, the government has now bought good quality seeds, stressed on the use of pesticides, and the demand for cotton has increased in the international market since.

10.5 million cotton bales next year

"And so, after consultations with all the provinces, we have concluded that Pakistan can produce 10.5 million bales — 4 million from Sindh, 6 million from Punjab, and the rest from other provinces."

Umar said that the livestock industry had also been adversely impacted by coronavirus, but in the next fiscal year, it will move towards normalisation, and growth in this sector, too, will be visible.

The federal minister said electricity consumption was expected to grow by 6%, and after the government had announced a package for the industries, their power consumption had gone up 15% during the current fiscal — and in the next year, it is predicted to go up further.

Growth is expected in gas, coal, construction, and among several other sectors. "Exports are predicted to go up. This year it stood at $25.2 billion, and in the next year, it will move up to $26.8 billion."

Highest exports in 10 years

The federal minister claimed this year's $25.2 billion worth of exports were the country's highest figures in the last 10 years. "It is unfortunate that the backbone of the economy, exports faced several setbacks during the previous year."

Umar said next year's target for exports, $26.8 billion, would be the highest in the country's history.

The remittances might not grow like this year, but they are expected to move up from $29.1 billion to $31.3 billion — an expected increase of $2 billion.

Umar said the government was aiming at taking up the exports and expanding the IT sector, he said, adding: "The IT exports increased by 46%.

250 million rupees increase in PSDP

The Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP) stood at 650 billion rupees this year, and the government has increased it to 900 billion rupees for the next fiscal year — a "huge" increase of 250 million rupees.

The federal minister said growth during the current fiscal year indicates that in the next fiscal year, the growth will be more than expected.

Giving an overview of the development spending for the next fiscal year, Umar said these envisage road infrastructure projects including Hyderabad-Sukkur motorway.

PSDP spending

Giving an overview of the development spending for the next fiscal year, Umar said these envisage road infrastructure projects including the Hyderabad-Sukkur motorway.

The packages announced for Karachi, and select districts of Sindh and Balochistan, and Gilgit-Baltistan will be financed from the PSDP, the federal minister said.

Similarly, funds will be provided from the development plan for the construction of dams. 28 billion rupees will be allocated for health, 37 billion rupees for the Higher Education Commission, and five billion rupees have also been set aside for the skills education program.

The planning minister said the current account deficit for the next fiscal year has been estimated at 0.07%.

https://www.geo.tv/latest/352317-gdp-growth-to-be-around-48-in-fy22-asad-umar
Click to expand...

If CAD gets out of control then we will be back to IMF. We must get out Exports up and use Import substitution. The other way is to get FDI up but that requires political stability and a trust worth court system for Foreign investors.
 
The federal government on Friday approved an economic growth target of 4.8% and estimated inflation to remain at 8% for its fourth year in power amid a vast variation in current account deficit projections given by the finance ministry and the planning commission for the next fiscal year.

“The Annual Plan Coordination Committee [APCC] has approved a 4.8% economic growth rate target for the fiscal year 2021-22,” Planning and Development Minister Asad Umar said at a news conference after the body's meeting.

The 4.8% growth target is marginally less than the one suggested by the finance ministry in a parliamentary committee meeting.

The APCC also set the inflation target at 8% for the next fiscal year. However, its approved inflation target of 6.5% for the current fiscal year has been missed by a wide margin.

The economic plan will now be tabled before the National Economic Council (NEC) on June 4 for its formal endorsement. The NEC meeting will be headed by Prime Minister Imran Khan.
The NEC is a constitutional body responsible for macroeconomic planning and the deputy chairman of the planning commission heads the APCC.

Umar said the highlight of the outgoing fiscal year was that the gross national product (GNP) increased to a 16-year high and grew by 6.5% due to strong growth in foreign remittances. The foreign remittances are not included in the gross domestic product (GDP).

However, the GNP estimates are also based on an assumption that in addition to formal remittances transferred through banks, about 14% or Rs656 billion was transferred by international travellers by bypassing these channels.

As international travel has been largely restricted this year due to the Covid-19 pandemic, the 14% assumption appears on the high side – in turn inflating the GNP growth figure of 6.5%.
One of the reasons behind significant increase in foreign remittances in this fiscal year was closure or restrictions on air travel.

The minister said foreign remittances were expected to peak to $29.3 billion in this fiscal year. They have been estimated to increase to $31.3 billion in the next fiscal year.
Umar said the agricultural sector was expected to grow by 3.4% in the next fiscal year as against 2.8% in the ongoing one.

The services sector is projected to grow by 4.7% as against this year’s estimates of 4.4%. The Industrial sector growth target is 6.8% compared to this year’s growth estimate of 3.6%.

“Cotton production that dipped to seven million bales this year is expected jack up to 10.6 million in 2021-22 on the back of good quality supplies of seeds and pesticides,” said Umar.

The manufacturing sector growth target is 6.2% and large-scale manufacturing 6% -- both lower than this year’s growth estimates. The electricity generation is targeted to grow by 6% next year.

National savings are projected to increase to 14.2% as against 13.9% of the GDP this year.
The total investment is also projected to increase to 16% of the GDP as against 15.2% this year. National savings have been projected to remain unchanged at 15.3% of the GDP in the next fiscal year too.
The minister said the APCC had approved the current account deficit target at 0.7% of the GDP or $2.3 billion.

“There will be minor current account surplus of $200 million this fiscal year,” he added.

However, the finance ministry has projected $4.8 billion worth of the current account deficit in the next fiscal year, which is equal to 1.4% of the GDP.

“The APCC is the right forum for approving these targets. It has approved $2.3 billion for the next fiscal year with the backing of all stakeholders,” the minister said responding to a question.
Umar said the higher current account projections could be because the finance ministry had projected over 5% GDP growth target for the next fiscal year.

“The more you grow, the higher will be the current account deficit.”

Umar said the country could afford to have up to 2% of the GDP current account deficit and the PTI government had tried to follow an economic model of sustainable growth by relying on productive sectors of the economy.

“If we tried to achieve growth by adopting methods used by the PML-N like exploding the current account and budget deficits, we would not have a place to hide in the upcoming elections,” he added.
The government has approved exports target at $26.8 billion -- higher by only $1.6 billion or 6.3% against this year’s estimated exports.

The imports target is $55.3 billion -- up by $4.9 billon or 9.7%.

The trade deficit is projected to widen to $28.4 billion in the next fiscal year -- up by $3.2 billion or 12.7%.

Express Tribune
 
[MENTION=131701]Mamoon[/MENTION]

Stunning GDP growth smashes false narratives​
The dark clouds hanging over Pakistan’s economy are finally lifting, that too in the middle of a global pandemic

This should be a moment of celebration for all of us. The dark clouds hanging over Pakistan’s economy are finally lifting, that too in the middle of a global pandemic which is devastating our eastern neighbour. But instead of toasting to our sunny outlook, we are roasting in confusion. Headlines are screaming that an expectation smashing 3.94% GDP growth number is a shock, an absolute surprise, questioning the integrity of the data itself.

In this piece, I will argue that Pakistan’s stunning GDP growth number is only a surprise because the media, opposition and opinion leaders believed their own narratives versus following the facts. The mainstream media is so married to playing an ‘incompetence porn’ tape of this government on repeat that they prefer arguing the data is fudged versus accepting they were wrong. For example, unlike armchair anchors who argue that this government is exaggerating growth numbers, Arif Habib Limited, one of the largest securities brokerage, investment banking and research firms in Pakistan, expects growth to clock in at 4.57%, even more bullish than the government. Unlike the media, these folks put their money where their mouth is.

So, why is there a divorce between popular narratives and hardcore data? To understand this phenomenon, we must go back to the beginning of this government, when Ishaq Dar and PML-N gave a sick Pakistani economy gasping for breath (read dollars) to Asad Umar in the emergency room. Almost instantly, the media and opposition began criticising the PTI government for being incompetent because they weren’t rushing to the IMF. Later, they argued PML-N left the economy in a great shape and PTI messed it up. But why should this government have rushed to the IMF, if PML-N left us in such a good shape? I guess one shouldn’t ask such hard questions of the media, lest one be accused to trying to update their software with facts.

Yes, the first two years of this government were very hard on Pakistan. But that was because we were paying for the sins of PML-N. Primary among them a current account deficit of $20 billion thanks to Dar’s fetish for keeping the rupee artificially overvalued versus the dollar. An artificially high rupee meant it was cheaper to import things than to produce them in Pakistan or export goods. Hence, our industry hollowed out, exports actually declined during PML-N’s tenure and imports we couldn’t afford thrived, bringing us to the verge of bankruptcy when PTI took over.

PTI took politically unpopular but wise decisions to correct these sins, including the painful devaluation of the currency. The idea was they would rescue the economy first, then stabilise and then put it on the path to growth. Halfway through stabilisation, Covid-19 hit. Displaying unusual foresight, Imran Khan resisted the elite temptation for a mass lockdown which would hurt the poor. Instead, Ehsaas delivered the largest cash transfer programme to the underprivileged in the history of the country. The SBP offered concessionary loans to industry, electricity tariffs were subsidised, and the construction sector was incentivised to fuel job creation.

And viola, LSM began growing by leaps and bounds month after month. Cars and motorcycles were being sold at breakneck speed. Exports began to rebound thanks to the structural correction in the value of the rupee. The construction sector started booming. Corporate profits hit record highs. And surely but suddenly, our GDP number began to reflect that underlying growth. The only problem? That’s not the story our media and opposition has been selling over the last three years. They’ve been selling a story of utter incompetence by this government.

The facts on the ground, as always, are more nuanced than the narratives projected. There are many fair critiques one can make on this government, including on economy related things like inflation. But to not talk honestly about our spectacular resilience and growth story during a pandemic is a disservice not just to PTI but to Pakistan. What’s even more inspiring is that this growth — built on solid foundations versus artificial exchange rates — is sustainable. As a wise woman once said, the party’s only getting started.

Published in The Express Tribune, May 30th, 2021.
 
The inflation rate remained in double digits for the second successive month and stood at 10.9% in May due to increase in energy and food prices amid low chances of any respite because of recent hike in electricity prices.

The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) reported on Tuesday that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 10.9% in May over the same month a year ago. The 10.9% inflation rate is higher than up to 9.8% projection given by the Ministry of Finance last week. The inflation bulletin has been released three days after the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) decided to maintain the policy rate at 7%.

The central bank noted that supply shocks to food and energy still dominate, with a small number of energy and food items in the CPI basket accounting for about three-fourths of the rise in inflation since January.

The SBP has maintained its earlier forecast that “the headline year-on-year inflation rate is likely to remain elevated in the coming months due to the recent electricity tariff hike, pushing the average for FY21 close to the upper end of the announced range of 7-9%.”

The Wholesale Price Index (WPI), which captures prices in the wholesale market, also rose sharply to 19.4% in May over the same month a year ago - a surge of 2.8% in a single month. Usually, the retail market prices reach the wholesale price levels in four to six months, indicating that the prices will remain high in the near term. The government last week approved the average inflation target for the next fiscal year at 8%, indicating that the year-on-year inflation may remain in double digits in fiscal year 2021-22.

Read more: Oil prices fall on rising Covid-19 infections in Asia, inflation fears

PBS reported that the prices remained significantly high in both rural areas and the cities, although the pace of increase was slower than the preceding month but still in double digits. The inflation rate in urban areas increased to 10.8% in May and in rural areas to 10.9%.

The food inflation rate in cities increased to 15.3% and in villages and towns to 12.8%, which was relatively lower than the previous month.

Non-food item prices also remained elevated both in rural areas at 9.2% and in urban areas at 8.3%. Core inflation - calculated by excluding food and energy items -decelerated slightly to 6.8% in urban areas in May, reported the national data collecting agency.

The food group saw a price increase of 14.8% in May from the same month a year ago. Within the food group, prices of non-perishable food items rose 18.2% on an annualised basis. The inflation rate for the housing, water, electricity, gas and fuel group - having one-fourth weight in the basket - increased to 8.4% last month.

Average prices for the clothing and footwear group rose 10.6% in May. Prices related to transportation rose 14% due to higher fuel cost.

The average inflation rate for July-May period of the current fiscal year came in at 8.83%, which was far higher than the official target of 6.5%, according to the PBS. PBS stated that petrol prices were 25.4% higher in May this year over a year ago despite the government not increasing prices for a couple of months. Electricity rates were higher by 22% than a year ago.

In May, chicken prices shot up by 60%, followed by 55% increase in prices of eggs, 31% rise in prices of mustard oil and wheat prices were up by 30% over a year, according to the PBS. As part of an investigation, the Competition Commission of Pakistan on Tuesday carried out search and inspection of Pakistan Poultry Association and one of its members in Lahore for their suspected involvement in cartelisation and anti-competitive activities in the poultry sector.

The CCP noted that from March 2020 to May 2021, chicken prices experienced a rise of 110%, reaching Rs325 per kg. Similarly, egg prices too saw a rising trend from March 2020 to May 2021, rising 42% to touch a peak of Rs197.7 per dozen in December 2020.

The CCP has issued show cause notices to 19 feed companies for cartelisation and a collective increase in feed prices, which resulted in an increase in the prices of chicken and eggs

The wheat and wheat flour prices would remain under pressure, as production has fallen short of wheat consumption by at least two million metric tons. The wheat flour prices were higher by 28.5% in May, said the national data collecting agency.

Published in The Express Tribune, June 2nd, 2021.
 
Pakistan's trade deficit has worsened by a whopping 21.28% over the first 10 months of the current fiscal year compared to the same period the previous fiscal year

July 2019-April 2020 $17.576 billion

July 2020-April 2021 $ 21.316 billion

Source: SBP
 
MenInG said:
Pakistan's trade deficit has worsened by a whopping 21.28% over the first 10 months of the current fiscal year compared to the same period the previous fiscal year

July 2019-April 2020 $17.576 billion

July 2020-April 2021 $ 21.316 billion

Source: SBP
Click to expand...

CAD, trade deficit etc. will keep jumping up and down, depending upon the price of oil etc. There is no point in looking at individual quarters or even years. What is important is the composition of exports. If the economy is making real progress it will show up in the exports of high-tech/high-value goods (modern industries). As these increase, the CAD, trade deficit etc. will turn positive.

It doesn't appear that IK has made any progress in creating conditions for the development of modern industries. As modern industries develop, it will show up in the composition of Pakistan's top exports, which can be tracked on websites like the following one. During IK's tenure the composition has pretty much remain unchanged and dominated by low-tech exports. Nor do I see any news articles saying that multinationals are setting up manufacturing bases in Pakistan.

https://www.worldstopexports.com/pakistans-top-10-exports/
 
Last edited:
ISLAMABAD: Federal Minister for Finance and Revenue Shaukat Tarin on Thursday said the poor economic policies of the PML-N government cost Pakistan $20 billion.

The current government inherited an economy in a shambles, with high inflation and massive circular debt, he said, while addressing a virtual press conference along with Minister for Energy and Petroleum Hammad Azhar and Minister for Industries and Production Makhdoom Khusro Bakhtiar.

Tarin said that during the PML-N government, the rupee was artificially propped up against the dollar which led to a record-high current account deficit — $20 billion.

Tarin said the government had to approach the International Monetary Fund to support the deteriorated economy and accept tough conditions such as high power tariffs.

However, now the government's focus was on providing relief to the masses in the upcoming budget for 2021-22 and that is why it was conveyed to the IMF in recent talks that the electricity and gas prices would not be increased, he said.

Tarin said former finance minister Miftah Ismail of the PML-N, during his tenure, had raised the petroleum development levy up to Rs30, while the present government had reduced it by Rs2-3.

Today the circular debt is declining and the government will take more steps to further reduce it, he added.

The finance minister said that despite the threats to the economy posed by the coronavirus pandemic, the government had brought the GDP growth rate close to 4%.

He said the PML-N had painted a picture to suggest the country's growth was not at the level it should have been. "The increase in growth rate in the PML-N tenure was due to loans they borrowed," he said.

"Everyone was witness to what Ishaq Dar did with the economy," he said, referring to the PML-N era finance minister.

He said it was the government's top priority to alleviate poverty, by promoting skill development practices among four million families, besides providing them housing facilities and health cards.

Tarin said the government's goal is to increase tax revenue by 20%.

"We will not impose tax after tax, we will only broaden the tax base," he explained, adding that FBR's "harassment" will be brought to an end.

Addressing the conference, Azhar said that when PTI took the reigns of power, the country was close to defaulting.

He expressed the confidence the government will take the GDP growth ratio to 6% by 2023.

Azhar said that the data presented by the PML-N in their pre-budget seminar was "not accurate".



https://www.geo.tv/latest/353364-pm...licies-cost-pakistan-20-billion-shaukat-tarin
 
The growth figures have thrown the mafia into absolute panic. From daily press conferences, to Miftah going into shock when asked to explain why his company's sales and profits are rocketing if his narrative is correct,to outright lies about the economy. I still think it might be too late for IK to pull it back because inflation has cost him dearly but seeing the mafia in a real tizzy is worth its weight in gold.
 
Finance Minister Shaukat Tarin on Thursday claimed that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forced Pakistan to increase interest rates and electricity prices that doubled the cost of debt servicing and pushed inflation upward.

In a rejoinder to PML-N’s critique of the government’s economic policies, the minister also said that when the party was in power, the 5.5% economic growth rate was fueled by borrowings.

“Debt servicing increased because of the increase in interest rates,” Tarin told The Express Tribune.

He added that inflation had increased due to high capacity payments and the IMF forced the government to increase electricity prices by 46% at the start of the programme.

“The IMF put a gun to our head to set the interest rate at 13.25%, which increased the debt servicing,” he maintained.

“The high interest rate added Rs1.5 trillion into the annual debt cost and that was a gift from the PML-N.”

However, Tarin did not mention the hot foreign money, which became the root cause for setting the interest rates high.

The foreign lenders had set three conditions for investing in the government debt: the real positive interest rates, stable exchange rate and waiver of taxes on profits earned on hot foreign money.

The Express Tribune had reported that acceptance of these conditions led to inflows of $3.6 billion in a year that evaporated the moment the central bank cut the interest rates after the outbreak of the Covid-19.

To a question, Tarin said the investment-to-GDP ratio declined during the three year of the PTI but it was because of the Covid-19 outbreak.

“The 5.5% growth rate [during the tenure of the previous government] was fueled by massive borrowings that also heated up the economy,” the minister claimed.

“The last government kept the rupee artificially overvalued that caused a $20 billion current account deficit.”

To a question as to why the PTI government had not realised the debt report that Prime Minister Imran Khan had ordered to determine the use of debt during the PML-N's time, the minister said the Debt Commission’s report was not finalised yet.

He added that under the IMF programme, the government had curbed demand, leading to an increase in poverty.

“The government will increase tax revenues by 20% every year and improve the collection to Rs7 trillion in two years,” Tarin maintained.

The minister hoped that the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) would collect Rs4.7 trillion this year and the target for next year was Rs5.8 trillion.

“A 13% increase in the collection will be due to nominal economic growth rate and the rest of the gap will be filled through tax base broadening measures,” he elaborated, adding that some of the tax exemptions would also be withdrawn.

“I am aware that some people have doubts about where the additional Rs250 billion will come if we do not take revenue measures but we will satisfy them,” the minister said.

To a question, Tarin said the IMF programme was not heading towards suspension and we were giving an alternate for not increasing the electricity prices.

Commenting on the state-owned enterprises’ losses, Tarin said that he gave a plan to former premier Nawaz Sharif to revamp them.

However, then finance minister Ishaq Dar and then Privatisation Commission chairman Muhammad Zubair did not accept it.

“We will now start restructuring and privatisation of the public sector enterprises,” he added.

Energy Minister Hammad Azhar, while responding to the PML-N’s critique, said the party had used selective data and then manipulated it.

“The PML-N’s economic team that was criticising the government actually brought the economy closer to default,” he added.

“When the PML-N government came to power, the debt service was $3 billion that jumped to $10 billion when it left.”

Hammad claimed that this year, external debt would increase by only $3.5 billion – an ambitious figure.

Industries and Production Minister Khusro Bakhtiar said if you adjusted the 40% currency devaluation during the PML-N's period, the size of the economy in dollar terms would be $261 billion at the end of its tenure.

Express Tribune
 
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-partner="tweetdeck"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Our economic turnaround & success of our construction policy showing results in diff sectors. Pak is changing. A near-bankrupt CDA, which posted a deficit of Rs 5.8 bn in 2017, will close this financial yr with Rs73 bn surplus & Rs 26 bn already in accounts. Well done team CDA.</p>— Imran Khan (@ImranKhanPTI) <a href="https://twitter.com/ImranKhanPTI/status/1400656544589565952?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 4, 2021</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-partner="tweetdeck"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">With financial stability achieved, it's time to accelerate transformation of Islamabad into a model city with priority being on reform & restructuring. Other mega cities can also become self-sustaining economic engines of growth through commitment, transparency & innovation.</p>— Imran Khan (@ImranKhanPTI) <a href="https://twitter.com/ImranKhanPTI/status/1400656546871263237?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 4, 2021</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-partner="tweetdeck"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">CDA's transformation: <a href="https://t.co/WtEBqrHsgA">pic.twitter.com/WtEBqrHsgA</a></p>— Imran Khan (@ImranKhanPTI) <a href="https://twitter.com/ImranKhanPTI/status/1400669585662169088?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 4, 2021</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 
MenInG said:
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-partner="tweetdeck"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Our economic turnaround & success of our construction policy showing results in diff sectors. Pak is changing. A near-bankrupt CDA, which posted a deficit of Rs 5.8 bn in 2017, will close this financial yr with Rs73 bn surplus & Rs 26 bn already in accounts. Well done team CDA.</p>— Imran Khan (@ImranKhanPTI) <a href="https://twitter.com/ImranKhanPTI/status/1400656544589565952?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 4, 2021</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-partner="tweetdeck"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">With financial stability achieved, it's time to accelerate transformation of Islamabad into a model city with priority being on reform & restructuring. Other mega cities can also become self-sustaining economic engines of growth through commitment, transparency & innovation.</p>— Imran Khan (@ImranKhanPTI) <a href="https://twitter.com/ImranKhanPTI/status/1400656546871263237?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 4, 2021</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-partner="tweetdeck"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">CDA's transformation: <a href="https://t.co/WtEBqrHsgA">pic.twitter.com/WtEBqrHsgA</a></p>— Imran Khan (@ImranKhanPTI) <a href="https://twitter.com/ImranKhanPTI/status/1400669585662169088?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 4, 2021</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Click to expand...

I wonder why the CDA was bankrupt? The Noora crooks left everything in a shambles and said to Kaptaan over to you, its your job to sort out our incompetence.
 
People in Pakistan want inflation to come down, wages to go up, more jobs to be created, business conditions to flourish. If that is not the reality on the ground then these presentations and charts are useless and the PDM will continue to have a field day in the elections
 
Savak said:
People in Pakistan want inflation to come down, wages to go up, more jobs to be created, business conditions to flourish. If that is not the reality on the ground then these presentations and charts are useless and the PDM will continue to have a field day in the elections
Click to expand...

If we don't have to go the IMF at the end of the 5 years then a massive step forward has been made. I am with you that the mafia will win next time but IK has laid the ground work for stability, let's hope they don't do as they DNA suggests and loot.
 
Pakistan and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are working to bridge their differences over quantum of new taxation measures amid the government’s willingness to increase sales tax rate on fertiliser to 10% and slap 17% tax on import of crude oil to generate Rs115 billion.

There is also a proposal to tax interest income under normal tax regime, instead of charging a maximum rate of 15% that is at the lower end.

The talks between the IMF and Pakistan will continue next week, although only five days are left in presentation of the budget for fiscal year 2021-22, said a source that is part of the negotiations.

The sources said that if the issues could not be settled at the level of Finance Minister Shaukat Tarin and IMF’s Mission Chief Ernesto Rigo, Prime Minister Imran Khan may talk to IMF Managing Director Christalina Georgieva next week.

Federal Information Minister Fawad Chaudhry said that “no telephonic conversation was planned today (Saturday)” between Imran Khan and Georgieva.

Another source said that the key difference between the two sides was the taxation measures that Pakistan has to take to achieve next fiscal year’s tax target of Rs5.829 trillion. Without additional taxation measures, Pakistan will reach Rs5.3 trillion and the IMF wants that the rest of the gap should be filled with additional revenue measures.

However, the government is of the view that the IMF should leave this to Pakistan whether the target will be achieved through taxation measures or administrative measures.

“Talks are moving and will be concluded within the scheduled time,” a senior Pakistan official replied when asked when both sides will be able to minimise the gap. The government has not completely ruled out the possibility of taking additional taxation measures and has shared some proposals with the IMF, said the sources. Among those proposals are taxation of fertiliser and crude oil.

The sources said that there was a proposal to increase the GST rate on fertiliser from 2% to 10% to generate Rs32 billion in revenues. The fertiliser companies had demanded the government to either zero rate its supplies of gas or increase output tax to 17% to avoid refunds.

The companies are claiming that their about Rs150 billion worth refunds are stuck in the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR). The manufacturers have also demanded clearing their tax refunds through a system that has been designed for exporters.

There is also a budget proposal to impose a 17% tax on import of crude oil. The measure will generate Rs85 billion revenues in the next fiscal year. There is already a tax at the local stage but the FBR suspects that one oil refinery evades taxes on its production of oil products.

However, taxation at the import stage may result in liquidity problems for the companies due to usual delays in repayment of refunds.

The sources said that the government was also considering bringing the interest income under normal tax regime that will generate a minimum Rs2 billion in the next fiscal year. The interest income is being taxed under three different regimes. For below Rs500,000 income the tax rate is 10% and for above Rs500,000, it is 15%.

The sources said that the industries minister has also proposed exempting investment in new industrial projects from disclosure of source of income. However, the proposal is likely to meet resistance from the FBR.

Industries Minister Khusro Bakhtiar was not available for comments.

The government has already allowed exemption on disclosure of source of income on investment in the construction sector under real estate tax amnesty scheme. The scheme is going to expire by the end of this month and so far there is no final decision whether to extend it or not. The sources said that the Naya Pakistan Housing and Development Authority chairman had met with the FBR chairman to pursue him to extend the amnesty further.

The construction sector is the flagship project of the prime minister and he is betting on its revival for a surge in economic activities.

Tax classification

The sources said that the government was also discussing with the IMF to allow it to treat collection under petroleum levy and profit of the central bank as part of the tax revenues without making these part of the divisible pool. The change of petroleum levy and SBP profit from “non-tax” to “tax” revenue would increase the tax-to-GDP ratio that so far remains dismally low.

The overall tax-to-GDP ratio has slipped to 11.4% of GDP by end of last fiscal year from 12.9% at the end of the PML-N tenure. The FBR’s tax-to-GDP ratio was hardly 9%.

Published in The Express Tribune, June 6th, 2021.
 
Here comes another acknowledgement from world

Pakistan succeeded in reviving economy despite Covid pandemic: Forbes US magazine lauds govt’s efforts saying even US and India faced difficulties in dealing with the pandemic

Leading American business magazine Forbes has lauded the government's efforts to tackle pandemic and to stabilise and grow Pakistan's economy, saying that the government has been successful in reviving its economy through prudent policies which is expected to grow at 4%.

Successful management to tackle the pandemic and the success of IMF programme, as evidenced by the 4% GDP growth, is a testament to Pakistan's growth potential and good investment opportunities, the magazine said.

It said when countries like United States and India have had difficulties in dealing with the coronavirus pandemic. Pakistan has succeeded in reviving its economy, which is expected to grow at a rate of about 4%, exceeding initial estimates in 2021.

The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) initially forecast a 3% increase in the GDP, while the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank forecast an increase of 1.5% and 1.3%, respectively.

Also read: 4% GDP growth beats gloomy forecasts

According to the report, the services sector, which is projected to grow at a rate of 4.43% in 2020-2021, contributes significantly to the overall growth. This is certainly noteworthy for a country like Pakistan which is succeeding in expanding its services sector. The growth rate of the agricultural sector is estimated at 2.77% while that of the industrial sector is 3.57%.

The situation in India is dire, with an incredible number of 28,441,986 cases of corona and 338,013 deaths.

Due to the increase in awareness on social media in Pakistan, citizens started wearing masks to protect against the novel coronavirus.

Last year, the country witnessed a spike in cases during the Eid festival, but this time the government partially imposed a lockdown, taking steps such as shutting down unnecessary businesses and banning domestic tourism, which helped to contain the spread of infection.

However, the sanctions caused difficulties for the working class. The government hopes that by the end of 2021, last week, on May 26 and 27, the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) had witnessed the highest ever buying and selling of 1.56 billion shares and 2.21 billion shares, respectively.

Pakistani investors and traders are optimistic and enthusiastic about the public budget and proposals for further growth.

According to SBP Governor Reza Baqir, flexible monetary and monetary policy has led to unprecedented growth in Pakistan's gross domestic product (GDP). The SBP hastily reduced the policy rate by 625 basis points to 7%. An aid package equal to 5% of GDP was provided.

The SBP governor said the government also controlled the coronavirus situation as the rate of new coronavirus cases is 12 out of 1 million people in Pakistan while the rate is 62 cases per 1 million people in the rest of the world.

In the IMF's global economic outlook, the ratio of government debt to GDP in 2020 did not change significantly compared to the previous year. Bloomberg also reported the same, while the rate of debt of emerging economies has also increased in terms of GDP by 10%

Raza Baqir said that due to the prudent fiscal and monetary policies of the government, the debt rate in terms of GDP has not increased.

According to the report, inflation is expected to remain between 7% and 9% in Pakistan.

Also read: Pakistan’s growth miracle

According to SBP Governor Raza Baqir, the recent rise in inflation was mainly due to energy and food items and one-time supply is a major factor, but authorities concerned are ready to respond to the pressure of possible demand in a timely manner.

The report said that the IMF provided Pakistan with an expanded fund of $6 billion. According to Baqir, Pakistan is moving towards stability and growth. The government has managed to turn a $19 billion current account deficit into a $900 million surplus. Foreign exchange reserves increased from $2.7 billion to $16 billion. The report said that the successful management of the pandemic and the success of the IMF programme, as evidenced by the 4% GDP growth, have helped Pakistan to grow and offer good investment opportunities.

https://tribune.com.pk/story/230387...eviving-economy-despite-covid-pandemic-forbes
 
Yes an average person doesn't care about deficits and improving graphs but does it mean we can move forward without these reforms? ABSOLUTELY NOT!

Imran Khan never believed in short cuts and proving once again that long term stability is more more important than short term gimmicks. If he loses elections after bringing back Economy from brink of collapse then so be it.
 
These colorful charts and histograms created on PowerPoint will not feed the poor and provide jobs to people.

The common man in Pakistan is aware of the fact PTI government has destroyed the economy.

They have choked businesses and ruined the middle and lower-class with unprecedented inflation.

Under no government was the poor man in such a helpless state as he is under Imran’s government.

They are also not willing to listen to his future projections and tall claims because they know for a fact that Imran and his government can only do hawai firing and make promises that they cannot keep. They can only offer words but nothing practical.

This is why PTI is now desperate to get overseas Pakistanis involved in the 2023 election because they know that the public of Pakistan have lost all faith in them.

The PTI government has proved to be the most incompetent, clueless and underprepared government in history of Pakistan.
 
Mamoon said:
These colorful charts and histograms created on PowerPoint will not feed the poor and provide jobs to people.

The common man in Pakistan is aware of the fact PTI government has destroyed the economy.

They have choked businesses and ruined the middle and lower-class with unprecedented inflation.

Under no government was the poor man in such a helpless state as he is under Imran’s government.

They are also not willing to listen to his future projections and tall claims because they know for a fact that Imran and his government can only do hawai firing and make promises that they cannot keep. They can only offer words but nothing practical.

This is why PTI is now desperate to get overseas Pakistanis involved in the 2023 election because they know that the public of Pakistan have lost all faith in them.

The PTI government has proved to be the most incompetent, clueless and underprepared government in history of Pakistan.
Click to expand...
"Pakistan’s stunning GDP growth number is only a surprise because the media, opposition and opinion leaders believed their own narratives versus following the facts. The mainstream media is so married to playing an ‘incompetence porn’ tape of this government on repeat that they prefer arguing the data is fudged versus accepting they were wrong. For example, unlike armchair anchors who argue that this government is exaggerating growth numbers, Arif Habib Limited, one of the largest securities brokerage, investment banking and research firms in Pakistan, expects growth to clock in at 4.57%, even more bullish than the government. Unlike the media, these folks put their money where their mouth is.

"So, why is there a divorce between popular narratives and hardcore data? To understand this phenomenon, we must go back to the beginning of this government, when Ishaq Dar and PML-N gave a sick Pakistani economy gasping for breath (read dollars) to Asad Umar in the emergency room. Almost instantly, the media and opposition began criticising the PTI government for being incompetent because they weren’t rushing to the IMF. Later, they argued PML-N left the economy in a great shape and PTI messed it up. But why should this government have rushed to the IMF, if PML-N left us in such a good shape? I guess one shouldn’t ask such hard questions of the media, lest one be accused to trying to update their software with facts.

Published in The Express Tribune, May 30th, 2021.


Prices are rising every where, so your idiocy of blaming IK shows you are bitter-Its not just PK. The price of petrol has risen for 7 months in a row in the UK, is that IKs fault.
https://markets.businessinsider.com...riving-up-cost-coke-diapers-2021-4-1030335277
 
Good analysis on what the Federal Gov has been able to do. And what the provincial governments post 18th amendment have not been able to do.

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/YqwSiBUX3eA" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Bhaag Viru Bhaag
4 killed, 20 Injured In Blast In Pakistan's Balochistan Province
2 3
Replies
167
Views
4K
Devadwal
Devadwal
ethan hunt
Pakistan spies spilling out from the woodwork in India after the Pahalgam crisis
2
Replies
119
Views
4K
BouncerGuy
BouncerGuy
FearlessRoar
With $356 Billion Market Cap, Tata Group Now Bigger Than GDP Of Pakistan
Replies
37
Views
3K
Bhaijaan
Bhaijaan
W
What is a BRICS currency and is the U.S. dollar in trouble?
Replies
79
Views
43K
LordJames
LordJames
FearlessRoar
Pakistan’s top talent is leaving the country in record numbers
Replies
2
Views
326
big_gamer007
big_gamer007
Back
Top